Week 8 Recap

In most years, the cream of the crop has made itself clear by Week 8. This is not most years. The following statements are all true:

• Barnard has scored the 7th most points in the league.
• Barnard has no top 15 RBs, top 20 WRs, or top 12 TEs.
• Barnard's best position player by rank is Matt Stafford at QB9.
• Barnard has allowed the 3rd most points in the league, ahead of only Ajay and Z (who don't get to play themselves).
• Barnard is 6-2.
• Nick has scored the 3rd most points in the league.
• Nick has two top 20 RBs (including RB1), two top 20 WRs (including WR2), two top 10 TEs, and also Drew Brees.
• Nick has allowed the 4th fewest points in the league.
• Nick is 4-4.

That my friends is what we call a paradox. I have continually gotten shit for the Power Rankings not being predictive, but I don't know how much better I can do other than say stuff like "Barnard will probably win by less than 5 or lose by 50+" or "Alan will keep getting 30 point days from backup RBs."

Anyway, this week is Part 1 of my Trade Deadline preview. I will outline the area of most depth and biggest need for each team, which will hopefully get those trade juices flowing. Next week, I will follow up with the usual mock trades.

Trade Grade 14
Barnard receives Calvin Ridley and Daniel Fells
Nick receives Jordan Howard and Eric Ebron

On the surface, this can't be viewed as anything other than a trade rape by Barnard. Ridley is by far the best asset here, and is only going to look better as the Falcons adjust to life without Sanu, while Howard will likely see his role diminsh over time. However, Howard can play this week (with Sanders banged up) while Ridley is on a bye. Barnard can afford the loss, which was likely coming anyway, but an RB upgrade for Nick could be the difference between a win and a loss against Alan. I still give Alan the edge though, and playing for one week isn't the way to get a chef's coat. If Nick makes the playoffs by one game thanks to a win this week, I'll eat my words, but I have a feeling he just cemented Barnard's spot in the playoffs.
Barnard Grade: A
Nick Grade: C

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Most Depth: Receiver? For a team this good, they are incredibly reliant on their core of starters. If Kareem Hunt becomes relevant then that will change, but as previously mentioned in this space, they've already made their trades.
Biggest Need: Flex. Aside from potentially Hunt, if they want a reliable option in this spot every week, they'll need to trade a stud for two starters.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Most Depth: Flex. Between Damien Williams, Darrell Henderson, Marvin Jones, and Mike Williams, I have a number of guys that can fill this role every week.
Biggest Need: QB. Barring an unexpected resurgence from my LA bros, this will be my Achilles heel.

3. Billy (Last Week: 3)
Most Depth: RB. He's only got three of them, but they would all be RB2 or better for most other teams.
Biggest Need: WR. Billy trading Royce for a WR seems like a relatively obvious move, but it leaves him even more perilously thin at RB. A move involving one of his handcuffs probably makes the most sense even if Latavius's price is probably too high.

4. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Most Depth: Flex? Similar to AGD, Nick's lineup is his lineup, with little to no help on the bench. Unlike AGD, he doesn't have a rock solid WR2, but instead a few options that may be appealing.
Biggest Need: Depth. Also similar to AGD, he's an injury away from plummeting down these rankings. Unlike AGD, he may have already experienced that injury with the way that Gurley is being used.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 5)
Most Depth: Upside flex. Miles Sanders and Hollywood Brown could both be assets over the second half of the season, so teams in need of upside may be interested.
Biggest Need: TE. Those Will Dissly weeks seem so far away. If Gut wants some reliability at TE, I can see a trade working nicely here.

6. Esco (Last Week: 6)
Most Depth: WR. This is one of the only teams that can deal from its position of strength and not really be affected. The only question is which WR will he have to part with for an upgrade elsewhere?
Biggest Need: RB. Ingram and Lindsay aren't terrible, but for a team that should have playoff dreams, you have to make an upgrade there.

7. Levine (Last Week: 4)
Most Depth: TE. I'm high on Herndon once he sees the field, so dealing Henry might be a sneaky way for Levine to upgrade his squad.
Biggest Need: RB2. He has a lot of startable options but nothing clear cut beyond Jones.

8. Alan (Last Week: 10)
Most Depth: RB2-3. While he has no RB1s despite Ekeler and Murray looking amazing when they have opportunities, Alan has five RBs that are flex-worthy at the very least.
Biggest Need: RB1. A 2-for-1 or even 3-for-1 consolidation trade makes a lot of sense here but is always hard to pull off.

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)
Most Depth: QB. Weissbard's continued lack of a QB trade is puzzling given the promise elsewhere on the roster.
Biggest Need: WR1. A QB/WR for WR1 trade seems too obvious here.

10. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Most Depth: WR. What a roller coaster this position on this team has been, but there are a lot of options that can upgrade the flex situation on other teams.
Biggest Need: TE. Other positions aren't in great shape, but the TE situation is dire.

11. Barnard  (Last Week: 11)
Most Depth: RB2-3. No studs here but a lot of startable options.
Biggest Need: WR. Another obvious trade likely coming.

12. Marco (Last Week: 9)
Most Depth: WR2-3. Marco's team is fairly balanced, but if he makes a move it will involve a WR (or QB if anyone wants to ride the Jameis train).
Biggest Need: RB2. Henry isn't a no-doubt RB1, but close enough in this league. Shady is not an RB2, and after losing Kerryon, this is where Marco needs help.

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
Most Depth: QB. Not necessarily depth, but Mahomes is the only trade chip on this team and I don't see Z moving him.
Biggest Need: Everything else. Tevin looked good last week, and JuJu made a crazy catch, but there's not a position that couldn't use an upgrade.

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Most Depth: ???
Biggest Need: A time machine back to August.


Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Nick
There are as many as four great options for MotW this week, all with playoff implications. But Barnard's record means he's still in the hunt even when he loses to AGD, Me/Marco may prove to be more relevant at the end of the season than it is now, and Gutman/Levine is potentially huge but both teams can bounce back from a loss.

That leaves us with Alan and Nick in a contender vs. pretender showdown. This is the MotW due to the trickle down effect of each outcome. A win by Alan would potentially give him a 2-game division lead and 3-game lead over me and Billy. It would also create some chaos in Nick's division if Esco and Marco win. On the flip side, a Nick victory would have the opposite effect in the divisions and would make the NiJo spot an extremely tight race.

So who wins it? Byes are obviously a monumental issue for Nick, but injuries will play a big factor as well. Not just if Davante suits up (looks like he might), but the injuries to Flacco, Kerryon Johnson, and even JJ Watt will play a part in this outcome. If Adams plays, the Rodgers/Adams/Ekeler trio should boom for Alan. Nick's only real shot at that kind of upside is with CMC and shockingly Gardner Minshew. I'm rooting for Nick for selfish reasons, but there are too many things lined up nicely for Alan.
Pick: Alan
MotW Record: 3-5


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/21

NFL Bets
Redskins (+10) at Bills - Loss
Lions (+3) at Raiders - Loss
Packers (-3) at Chargers - Loss
Patriots (-4) at Ravens - Loss
Cowboys (-7) at Giants - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 25-21 (+0.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NFL Win Total Bets Checkin
Good
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5
Bears under 9
Lions over 6.5
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5

Bad
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5

Ugly
Bengals over 6
Packers under 9.5
Niners under 8

NCAAF Bets
Purdue (+3) vs. Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-6.5) at Kansas - Win
Washington (+3.5) vs. Utah - Loss
Mississippi State (-7) at Arkansas - Win
Virginia (+3) at North Carolina - Win
TCU (+3) at Oklahoma State - Loss
Last Week: 5-4
2019 Record: 36-33-1 (-1.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Aston Villa (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Newcastle (+0.5) at West Ham - Win
Norwich (+1) at Brighton - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) at Sheffield - Loss
Watford (+1) vs. Chelsea - Push
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019-20 Record: 20-15-11 (+1.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Arsenal (-125) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-7 (-0.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-2-1
2019-20 Record: 4-6-4 (-2.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets
2019 Record: 77-77 (-5.55 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 46.12% (-12.33 units)

NBA Bets
Cavs (+2) vs. Bulls - Win
Celtics (+3.5) vs. Bucks - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 6-3 (+2.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

MLS Spread Bets
Seattle (+1.5) at LAFC - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 15-12-5 (+0.33 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Atlanta (-125) vs. Toronto FC - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 9-10 (-0.75 units)