NFL Bets
Bills (+3) at Texans - Push
Patriots (-5) vs. Titans - Loss
Saints (-8) vs. Vikings - Loss
Eagles (+3) vs. Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 43-37-4 (-1.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Kentucky (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Kansas State (+3) vs. Navy - Push
Wyoming (-7) vs. Georgia State - Win
Georgia (-5) vs. Baylor - Win
Indiana (+3) vs. Tennessee - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 60-45-2 (+6.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Clippers (-10.5) vs. Grizzlies - Loss
Cavs (+6.5) vs. Thunder - Loss
Celtics (+1.5) at Bulls - Win
Warriors (+3) vs. Pistons - Loss
Last Week: 0-2-1
2019 Record: 14-16-2 (-4.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Wichita State (-7.5) vs. Mississippi - Win
Auburn (-1) at Mississippi State - Win
North Carolina (-7) vs. Georgia Tech - Loss
Duke (-10) at Miami - Win
Baylor (-9) vs. Texas - Win
San Diego State (+3) at Utah State - Win
Last Week: 0-3
2019-20 Record: 17-15 (+0.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Watford (+0.5) vs. Wolves - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) at West Ham - Loss
Arsenal (Pick) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 38-33-11 (-2.20 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Chelsea (Even) at Brighton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+205) at Norwich - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 18-12 (+1.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Monday, December 30, 2019
Friday, December 27, 2019
Stevens Bowl Recap
Big congrats to Gutman, who has already asked about changing his team name so we don't have yet another penis reference on a piece of chef's attire. But the rules are the rules, and the name you rock during the season is what goes on the coat. Gut's close win caps an incredible playoffs where every matchup ended up within 15 points and Alan and Barnard were the only teams that failed to break 100.
Nick's presumed retirement will likely need to yet another AGD split, which puts us in a bit of a pickle for next year's division captains. We can either have AGD choose among themselves to determine who was more responsible for their season, or we can reward them for not only their success, but their willingness to split up for the good of the league, and let them both be division captains. This is a conversation for Winter Meetings, but something I wanted to bring up regardless.
Before moving into the offseason, I want to take one last look at 2019, and review the 5 reasons that Gutman is the champ:
5. Trading Vance McDonald for Jacob Hollister
Hollister wasn't a stud by any means, but he did outscore Vance by 6.5 in the Stevens Bowl week, which would have flipped the result from a win to a loss by 0.3. Yes, Gut may have added someone like Goedert, but Vance had a seemingly nice matchup and Gut may not have wanted multiple Eagles going in an important game, so there is no guarantee he would have handled this differently.
4. Drafting Dak Prescott for $4
Any Champion will have their share of good draft picks, but Gut went heavy on studs, limiting the chances for value. Dak was one of the lone exceptions, drafted as a tie for the 13th most expensive QB and finishing as QB4. He was cheaper than guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, and despite a lackluster Stevens Bowl, he carried Gut early in the year as the rest of his roster had yet to coalesce.
3. Esco terribly mismanaging his lineup in the semi-finals
Any Champion also needs their share of luck, and Gutman benefited from Esco's brutal semi-final lineup decisions. It's easy to nitpick roster decisions in a close matchup (I've been doing it in this space for over a decade), but Esco had 7 decisions he could have made differently that would have led to a Chef's hat for himself given his performance this past week.
2. Holding on to Miles Sanders all season
Gutman's pick of Sanders for $12 was my favorite pick he made during the draft, but god damn if it took a while to pay off. Sanders got inconsistent touches throughout the regular season, and only had three TDs all season heading into Week 15. He then exploded for 56.3 points over the next two weeks, carrying Gut's team across the finish line. I don't think anyone would have straight up dropped Sanders, but starting him over more established names like Amari Cooper, or another seemingly high upside rookie like Hollywood Brown was huge down the stretch.
1. Adding Davante Parker and riding him in the playoffs
None of the moves above come anywhere close to both the waiver add of Parker after Week 6, as well as starting him over Cooper the last two weeks. Starting with the waiver add, Gutman bid $9, which gave him Parker over Nick, who bid $4 (Billy also bid $0). This adds another insult to injury for Nick, who had Parker earlier in the season but dropped him for the immortal Darren Fells, thereby costing himself the Stevens Bowl. Back to Gut, he went against all the rankings and feedback in Week 15 to start Parker, then rode the hot hand instead of emotionally hedging with Cooper in Week 16. Last week I called it the single best lineup decision in FALAFEL history. This week, I call it the stuff of champions.
Final MotW Record: 10-9
I'll keep posting gambling stuff during the offseason, but FALAFEL content will likely go on hold until Winter Meetings and Draft Location madness in the spring.
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/23
NFL Bets
Lions (+13) vs. Packers - Win
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers - Win
Eagles (-4.5) at Giants - Win
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders - Loss
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019 Record: 43-36-3 (+1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech - Loss
Michigan State (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Win
Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force - Loss
Notre Dame (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Ohio State (+2) vs. Clemson - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 56-45-1 (+2.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-9) vs. Grizzlies - Push
Warriors (+11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Raptors (-4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 13-13-2 (-2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin - Loss
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky - Loss
Ohio State (-6.5) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 12-14 (-3.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Newcastle (+1.5) at Manchester United - Loss
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Watford - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2019-20 Record: 36-32-11 (-2.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Norwich - Win
Chelsea (-275) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 18-10 (+3.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Nick's presumed retirement will likely need to yet another AGD split, which puts us in a bit of a pickle for next year's division captains. We can either have AGD choose among themselves to determine who was more responsible for their season, or we can reward them for not only their success, but their willingness to split up for the good of the league, and let them both be division captains. This is a conversation for Winter Meetings, but something I wanted to bring up regardless.
Before moving into the offseason, I want to take one last look at 2019, and review the 5 reasons that Gutman is the champ:
5. Trading Vance McDonald for Jacob Hollister
Hollister wasn't a stud by any means, but he did outscore Vance by 6.5 in the Stevens Bowl week, which would have flipped the result from a win to a loss by 0.3. Yes, Gut may have added someone like Goedert, but Vance had a seemingly nice matchup and Gut may not have wanted multiple Eagles going in an important game, so there is no guarantee he would have handled this differently.
4. Drafting Dak Prescott for $4
Any Champion will have their share of good draft picks, but Gut went heavy on studs, limiting the chances for value. Dak was one of the lone exceptions, drafted as a tie for the 13th most expensive QB and finishing as QB4. He was cheaper than guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, and despite a lackluster Stevens Bowl, he carried Gut early in the year as the rest of his roster had yet to coalesce.
3. Esco terribly mismanaging his lineup in the semi-finals
Any Champion also needs their share of luck, and Gutman benefited from Esco's brutal semi-final lineup decisions. It's easy to nitpick roster decisions in a close matchup (I've been doing it in this space for over a decade), but Esco had 7 decisions he could have made differently that would have led to a Chef's hat for himself given his performance this past week.
2. Holding on to Miles Sanders all season
Gutman's pick of Sanders for $12 was my favorite pick he made during the draft, but god damn if it took a while to pay off. Sanders got inconsistent touches throughout the regular season, and only had three TDs all season heading into Week 15. He then exploded for 56.3 points over the next two weeks, carrying Gut's team across the finish line. I don't think anyone would have straight up dropped Sanders, but starting him over more established names like Amari Cooper, or another seemingly high upside rookie like Hollywood Brown was huge down the stretch.
1. Adding Davante Parker and riding him in the playoffs
None of the moves above come anywhere close to both the waiver add of Parker after Week 6, as well as starting him over Cooper the last two weeks. Starting with the waiver add, Gutman bid $9, which gave him Parker over Nick, who bid $4 (Billy also bid $0). This adds another insult to injury for Nick, who had Parker earlier in the season but dropped him for the immortal Darren Fells, thereby costing himself the Stevens Bowl. Back to Gut, he went against all the rankings and feedback in Week 15 to start Parker, then rode the hot hand instead of emotionally hedging with Cooper in Week 16. Last week I called it the single best lineup decision in FALAFEL history. This week, I call it the stuff of champions.
Final MotW Record: 10-9
I'll keep posting gambling stuff during the offseason, but FALAFEL content will likely go on hold until Winter Meetings and Draft Location madness in the spring.
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/23
NFL Bets
Lions (+13) vs. Packers - Win
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers - Win
Eagles (-4.5) at Giants - Win
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders - Loss
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019 Record: 43-36-3 (+1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech - Loss
Michigan State (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Win
Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force - Loss
Notre Dame (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Ohio State (+2) vs. Clemson - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 56-45-1 (+2.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-9) vs. Grizzlies - Push
Warriors (+11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Raptors (-4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 13-13-2 (-2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin - Loss
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky - Loss
Ohio State (-6.5) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 12-14 (-3.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Newcastle (+1.5) at Manchester United - Loss
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Watford - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2019-20 Record: 36-32-11 (-2.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Norwich - Win
Chelsea (-275) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 18-10 (+3.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Stevens Bowl Preview
Before we get to the matchup of the week, we need to revisit the Matchup of the Decade. In the 210 team games played so far this year, it featured the 1st and 4th most points. In the 690 games in the last three years since we moved to half point PPR, it featured the 1st and 6th most points (side note: I have three of those top 6 point totals...and 1 playoff win). Neither of us played our ideal lineup, though injuries to Dalvin and Godwin heavily influenced that. And Gutman starting Davante Parker over Amari Cooper may have been the best lineup decision in FALAFEL history.
That said, let's take a look at how Karma had its say. In Week 13, I benched Dalvin and Lockett, costing myself the matchup with Barnard and $50. In that game, Dalvin immediately got hurt and Lockett was shut out. The following week, while avoiding a potential loss to Esco, I beat Alan but got a goose egg from Alshon, who got injured for the rest of the year, and Jameis broke a bone in his throwing hand. Had Alshon been healthy, I likely would have started him over Lockett, who responded with a big game, but in turn I lost both Godwin and Dalvin mid-game, which likely cost me the matchup. Karma is indeed real, and it is vicious.
Moving on...
Belfer! Gutman! Reap? Mara! It's the Stevens Bowl!
Quarterbacks:
Two top five QBs, two pretty easy matchups, both with their #1 receiver on the same roster. This position should lead the fireworks of the matchup. If I'm AGD, I'm a little bit scared that the Texans (and Perriman) lead off the week on Saturday afternoon. It's an unnatural time for an NFL game, despite the Texans always playing their playoff games in that time slot. Maybe familiarity will work to Watson's benefit, but this one will be close. I'm leaning towards AGD simply because the weather should be nicer.
Slight Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
Carson and Fournette are the studs, but the Chubb/Hunt dynamic is super interesting here. Baltimore is a solid defense, and I'm not sure how Hot Seat Freddie will deploy his RBs. You have to assume the Browns will be passing to catch up, which sounds like a Hunt game, but you can never rule out Chubb breaking a long one. I'll take the ceiling of Carson and Chubb here.
Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers:
Hopkins is the best WR this side of Mike Thomas, but Watson has been spreading the ball out a lot more with Fuller and Stills healthy, so I actually think Julio's target share makes him the top WR in this matchup. A.J. Brown and Davante Parker are shockingly top 15 options and pretty much the only reason these teams are in the Stevens Bowl. I still think Gutman should be starting Amari here, but I'll cover that in the Flex section. Overall this position is half high-floor studs and half insane variance. Too close to call.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
AGD currently has Higbee over Andrews, which is curious to me, but either way they have a definite edge over Hollister.
Big Edge: AGD
Flex:
This is where the chef's coat or hats will be decided. AGD had enough auction dollars left to guarantee themselves Perriman, which I assume is the reason why Gutman didn't bid at all (either that or he has no idea what he's doing and put up 160+ on me in the semi-finals based entirely on luck, which I cannot accept). Perriman is absolutely not a safe start, and him and Brown could combine to score anywhere from 5-60 points, but I like starting him over LeVeon or Washington after seeing what Gutman's team can do. For Gutman, this is as hard as it gets. Miles Sanders, coming off a Stevens Bowl berth-winning performance, going up against the Cowboys, or Amari Cooper, coming off an up and down month, and going against Gutman's Eagles. We all know what Bennett would do, but does Gut have the balls to start Amari here? I think it's a relative toss up, but guessing wrong will be devastating. All that said, Gut's options are safer than AGD's.
Slight Edge: Gutman
D/ST:
AGD's Ravens are the clear winner here, and I'm not really sure what Gutman is gonna do. I don't love going up against Tannehill (what a wild sentence), or trust the ATL defense. Looking at the wire, I might actually go with the Skins here, but it likely won't matter.
Edge: AGD
Overall:
The playoffs have really been a lot of fun this year. The largest margin of victory is shockingly me vs. Gutman (albeit by 0.1 points), which just shows how competitive things have been. I expect nothing different from the Stevens Bowl, which means I really have to throw all that hard-hitting analysis above out the window and ask myself, what is easier to picture? I would absolutely love to see Gutman's face as Weissbard gets on a stepstool and puts a chef's coat on him, but AGD with chef hats on their dicks is in play as well. To me, the easiest thing to picture is Miles Sanders fumbling away the Eagles' playoff hopes as Amari torches a terrible Philly secondary. Sorry Gut.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 10-8
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/16
NFL Bets
Bucs (+3) vs. Texans - Push
Panthers (+7) at Colts - Loss
Bengals (+1) at Dolphins - Loss
Giants (+3) at Redskins - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 40-34-3 (+0.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State - Loss
San Diego State (-3) vs. Central Michigan - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 54-43-1 (+3.99 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+5.5) vs. Kings - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 13-11-1 (-0.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Creighton - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
2019-20 Record: 12-11 (-0.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Burnley - Loss
Sheffield (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Leicester City (+1.5) at Manchester City - Loss
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 33-27-11 (-0.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
That said, let's take a look at how Karma had its say. In Week 13, I benched Dalvin and Lockett, costing myself the matchup with Barnard and $50. In that game, Dalvin immediately got hurt and Lockett was shut out. The following week, while avoiding a potential loss to Esco, I beat Alan but got a goose egg from Alshon, who got injured for the rest of the year, and Jameis broke a bone in his throwing hand. Had Alshon been healthy, I likely would have started him over Lockett, who responded with a big game, but in turn I lost both Godwin and Dalvin mid-game, which likely cost me the matchup. Karma is indeed real, and it is vicious.
Moving on...
Belfer! Gutman! Reap? Mara! It's the Stevens Bowl!
Quarterbacks:
Two top five QBs, two pretty easy matchups, both with their #1 receiver on the same roster. This position should lead the fireworks of the matchup. If I'm AGD, I'm a little bit scared that the Texans (and Perriman) lead off the week on Saturday afternoon. It's an unnatural time for an NFL game, despite the Texans always playing their playoff games in that time slot. Maybe familiarity will work to Watson's benefit, but this one will be close. I'm leaning towards AGD simply because the weather should be nicer.
Slight Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
Carson and Fournette are the studs, but the Chubb/Hunt dynamic is super interesting here. Baltimore is a solid defense, and I'm not sure how Hot Seat Freddie will deploy his RBs. You have to assume the Browns will be passing to catch up, which sounds like a Hunt game, but you can never rule out Chubb breaking a long one. I'll take the ceiling of Carson and Chubb here.
Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers:
Hopkins is the best WR this side of Mike Thomas, but Watson has been spreading the ball out a lot more with Fuller and Stills healthy, so I actually think Julio's target share makes him the top WR in this matchup. A.J. Brown and Davante Parker are shockingly top 15 options and pretty much the only reason these teams are in the Stevens Bowl. I still think Gutman should be starting Amari here, but I'll cover that in the Flex section. Overall this position is half high-floor studs and half insane variance. Too close to call.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
AGD currently has Higbee over Andrews, which is curious to me, but either way they have a definite edge over Hollister.
Big Edge: AGD
Flex:
This is where the chef's coat or hats will be decided. AGD had enough auction dollars left to guarantee themselves Perriman, which I assume is the reason why Gutman didn't bid at all (either that or he has no idea what he's doing and put up 160+ on me in the semi-finals based entirely on luck, which I cannot accept). Perriman is absolutely not a safe start, and him and Brown could combine to score anywhere from 5-60 points, but I like starting him over LeVeon or Washington after seeing what Gutman's team can do. For Gutman, this is as hard as it gets. Miles Sanders, coming off a Stevens Bowl berth-winning performance, going up against the Cowboys, or Amari Cooper, coming off an up and down month, and going against Gutman's Eagles. We all know what Bennett would do, but does Gut have the balls to start Amari here? I think it's a relative toss up, but guessing wrong will be devastating. All that said, Gut's options are safer than AGD's.
Slight Edge: Gutman
D/ST:
AGD's Ravens are the clear winner here, and I'm not really sure what Gutman is gonna do. I don't love going up against Tannehill (what a wild sentence), or trust the ATL defense. Looking at the wire, I might actually go with the Skins here, but it likely won't matter.
Edge: AGD
Overall:
The playoffs have really been a lot of fun this year. The largest margin of victory is shockingly me vs. Gutman (albeit by 0.1 points), which just shows how competitive things have been. I expect nothing different from the Stevens Bowl, which means I really have to throw all that hard-hitting analysis above out the window and ask myself, what is easier to picture? I would absolutely love to see Gutman's face as Weissbard gets on a stepstool and puts a chef's coat on him, but AGD with chef hats on their dicks is in play as well. To me, the easiest thing to picture is Miles Sanders fumbling away the Eagles' playoff hopes as Amari torches a terrible Philly secondary. Sorry Gut.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 10-8
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/16
NFL Bets
Bucs (+3) vs. Texans - Push
Panthers (+7) at Colts - Loss
Bengals (+1) at Dolphins - Loss
Giants (+3) at Redskins - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 40-34-3 (+0.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State - Loss
San Diego State (-3) vs. Central Michigan - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 54-43-1 (+3.99 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+5.5) vs. Kings - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 13-11-1 (-0.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Creighton - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
2019-20 Record: 12-11 (-0.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Burnley - Loss
Sheffield (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Leicester City (+1.5) at Manchester City - Loss
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 33-27-11 (-0.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Second Round Preview
The playoffs started with a bang. Enormous games from Jameis and Ekeler drove one matchup, while the difference in the other matchup came down entirely to the Tight End position. Injuries also dominated the week, with each remaining team affected one way or another. Losing Mike Evans is rough for AGD, but probably benefits me with Godwin (unsure how it will affect Jamies, who may not even notice). I lost Alshon, which could help Gutman with Agholor. Gut gets a huge bump for Carson with Penny going down, but loses Davante Parker, who surprisingly led him to the bye. Esco was affected the least, but Jared Cook's concussion will make the TE position a question mark because he plays on MNF. Fun times all around.
As a side note, while my tanking efforts were entirely to keep Nick out of the playoffs and avoid AGD until the Stevens Bowl, it had the side effect of giving me Alan in the first round. That proved to be important, as I would have lost to Esco if I played it straight. Karma took Alshon away from me, but it has unquestionably validated my decision so far. Keep it coming!
On to the breakdowns.
Matchup 1 - AGD vs. Esco
Quarterbacks:
While Josh Allen has done a shockingly good job of replacing Cam's production and style, the matchup against Pitt is not a good one. His legs should keep him in the double digits, but I don't see him approaching 20. Unfortunately for Esco, 20 is probably the floor for Watson in what should be an unexpected shootout against the Titans.
Big Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
The RB position is probably the weakest position overall in this matchup, though there is some upside. Fournette is the only stud, but the Jags have looked like garbage the last few weeks. He gets a juicy matchup against Oakland, but if they fall behind that caps his ceiling. Esco's Ingram/Lindsay duo also has good matchups but their workload is extremely inconsistent week-to-week. And while AGD currently has Hunt as their RB2 and Leveon as Flex, I'm putting Bell in this section to make things even. I don't expect him to do much against the stout Ravens defense, but his workload (especially with half PPR) gives him a decent floor. Honestly, the range of outcomes here is far too large to make a choice.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Kudos to AGD for grabbing and holding onto AJ Brown, who steps in as a nice boom/bust replacement for Evans (who had a very boom/bust season himself). Adding Brown to Hopkins will make that AFC South matchup an extremely important one for this FALAFEL matchup, and has the potential for 40+ points at WR for AGD. On the other side, Esco also has some extremely nice matchups for Mike Thomas and Golladay (who no longer has to worry about Marvin stealing endzone targets), so his ceiling is equally as high. This should be a fun position no matter what, but I'm leaning towards Esco just because Brown isn't as consistent as the other three studs.
Slight Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Injuries are playing a huge role here, so while the matchup is currently Cook vs. Higbee, it could end up as Howard vs. Andrews, or any combination of the four. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Cook the most, followed closely by both Andrews and Higbee, with Howard bringing up the rear. Given the MNF game for Cook, and the dropoff to Howard, I'm going with AGD based on the information we have now.
Slight Edge: AGD
Flex:
Kareem Hunt vs. Stefon Diggs is quite the matchup. Both guys have the potential to lose touches to someone in their same position group, but they have relatively nice matchups, so it's another huge range of outcomes position. I can certainly see a world where Hunt has 15+ touches and a TD or two, but Diggs is going to have the higher floor most of the time.
Slight Edge: Esco
D/ST:
Esco gets to choose between a Chiefs team that can't stop the run against Denver, and a Vikings team that can't stop the pass against the Chargers. He has KC in right now, and while I agree with that choice, it likely won't matter with AGD's Ravens facing the Jets on TNF.
Big Edge: AGD
Overall:
A dominant AGD team all season looks as vulnerable now as they have since the draft. A late surging Esco team is solid across the board other than one-week blips at QB and TE. This is going to be a high scoring matchup where either team could break 120 easily. AGD has the higher ceiling, but the floor for Hunt, Bell, Brown, and whoever starts at TE is scary. Esco has the higher floor, but tough matchups for Josh Allen, the potential return of Thielen, and his own TE injury drama limits his ceiling. I'm extremely torn here, but weird shit happens in the playoffs, so I'm going with the "safer" option.
Pick: Esco
Matchup 2 - Gutman vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Jameis is truly a one-man roller coaster ride, but his upside has been enough to make him a weekly stud over the last month. And while he gets an easy matchup against Detroit, he literally fractured a bone in his throwing hand which won't help his "accuracy." Dak has been equally as inconsistent, just with a higher floor and lower ceiling. The Rams seem to have potentially figured things out on defense recently, so I'm going entirely based on the opposing defense here.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks/Flex:
This is the studfest of this matchup. Cook, Barkley, Carson, and Chubb are arguably four of the top 6 RBs this week as their workload and matchups are all excellent. Chubb may lose touches to Hunt, and Cook may still be banged up, but I expect all of these guys to approach or exceed 20 points. The flex position is also included in here and if either Mostert or Sanders has big day, they could swing the entire matchup. Having said all that, I would be throwing a dart if I tried to make a choice here.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Godwin has the best situation here here, but Julio and Amari can easily match his output. The Jameis/Godwin and Dak/Amari combos could lead to some huge point totals if they connect for TDs, and will go a long way towards determining who wins overall. My WR2 situation is less than ideal, with Lockett borderline unstartable, a boom/bust Mike Williams, and the potential for Thielen's return. I honestly don't know who I'm going to start right now, but it probably won't matter either way.
Edge: Gutman
Tight End:
In theory, this position is the biggest single edge in the entire matchup. However, I traded Hollister to Gutman for one subpar week of Vance McDonald, and if Karma is going to come back to bite me this week, this is where it will happen. Not something I'm willing to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
Big Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Gutman has been riding with the Saints for a while, but after last week, he has to feel a little bit rattled. The Colts aren't an elite offense, but they're also not likely to commit multiple turnovers, limiting the floor and ceiling for NOLA. I still haven't made my choice between the Packers and Giants, but each one is probably about the same as the Saints. I doubt there is much of a difference here no matter who I go with,
Edge: Even
Overall:
Another extremely tough choice. If Jameis was fully healthy, I think the connection with Godwin against the Lions would be enough for me to make myself a clear favorite. But his injury (again: to his throwing hand), and Carson's improved situation makes this one essentially a toss up. Last week I didn't think Karma would come back to bite me, but this week, I have the Hollister situation and a number of tough lineup choices that increases the odds that I fuck myself. Given that the rest of our players are done before SNF, I think the Saints make a big play on MNF to give Gutman the win.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 9-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/9
NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-10) at Bengals - Win
Jaguars (+7) at Raiders - Win
Vikings (-1.5) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019 Record: 39-32-2 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-10.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 12-11-1 (-1.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgetown (-3) vs. Syracuse - Win
Seton Hall (-2.5) at Rutgers - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7) at Houston - Win
Ohio State (-8) at Minnesota - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 12-10 (+0.92 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+2) at Chelsea - Win
Wolves (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Arsenal (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 31-23-11 (+2.43 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Crystal Palace (+155) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Lyon (Pick) vs. RB Leipzig - Push
Club Brugge (+0.5) vs. Real Madrid - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Shahktar (+155) vs. Atalanta - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
As a side note, while my tanking efforts were entirely to keep Nick out of the playoffs and avoid AGD until the Stevens Bowl, it had the side effect of giving me Alan in the first round. That proved to be important, as I would have lost to Esco if I played it straight. Karma took Alshon away from me, but it has unquestionably validated my decision so far. Keep it coming!
On to the breakdowns.
Matchup 1 - AGD vs. Esco
Quarterbacks:
While Josh Allen has done a shockingly good job of replacing Cam's production and style, the matchup against Pitt is not a good one. His legs should keep him in the double digits, but I don't see him approaching 20. Unfortunately for Esco, 20 is probably the floor for Watson in what should be an unexpected shootout against the Titans.
Big Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
The RB position is probably the weakest position overall in this matchup, though there is some upside. Fournette is the only stud, but the Jags have looked like garbage the last few weeks. He gets a juicy matchup against Oakland, but if they fall behind that caps his ceiling. Esco's Ingram/Lindsay duo also has good matchups but their workload is extremely inconsistent week-to-week. And while AGD currently has Hunt as their RB2 and Leveon as Flex, I'm putting Bell in this section to make things even. I don't expect him to do much against the stout Ravens defense, but his workload (especially with half PPR) gives him a decent floor. Honestly, the range of outcomes here is far too large to make a choice.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Kudos to AGD for grabbing and holding onto AJ Brown, who steps in as a nice boom/bust replacement for Evans (who had a very boom/bust season himself). Adding Brown to Hopkins will make that AFC South matchup an extremely important one for this FALAFEL matchup, and has the potential for 40+ points at WR for AGD. On the other side, Esco also has some extremely nice matchups for Mike Thomas and Golladay (who no longer has to worry about Marvin stealing endzone targets), so his ceiling is equally as high. This should be a fun position no matter what, but I'm leaning towards Esco just because Brown isn't as consistent as the other three studs.
Slight Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Injuries are playing a huge role here, so while the matchup is currently Cook vs. Higbee, it could end up as Howard vs. Andrews, or any combination of the four. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Cook the most, followed closely by both Andrews and Higbee, with Howard bringing up the rear. Given the MNF game for Cook, and the dropoff to Howard, I'm going with AGD based on the information we have now.
Slight Edge: AGD
Flex:
Kareem Hunt vs. Stefon Diggs is quite the matchup. Both guys have the potential to lose touches to someone in their same position group, but they have relatively nice matchups, so it's another huge range of outcomes position. I can certainly see a world where Hunt has 15+ touches and a TD or two, but Diggs is going to have the higher floor most of the time.
Slight Edge: Esco
D/ST:
Esco gets to choose between a Chiefs team that can't stop the run against Denver, and a Vikings team that can't stop the pass against the Chargers. He has KC in right now, and while I agree with that choice, it likely won't matter with AGD's Ravens facing the Jets on TNF.
Big Edge: AGD
Overall:
A dominant AGD team all season looks as vulnerable now as they have since the draft. A late surging Esco team is solid across the board other than one-week blips at QB and TE. This is going to be a high scoring matchup where either team could break 120 easily. AGD has the higher ceiling, but the floor for Hunt, Bell, Brown, and whoever starts at TE is scary. Esco has the higher floor, but tough matchups for Josh Allen, the potential return of Thielen, and his own TE injury drama limits his ceiling. I'm extremely torn here, but weird shit happens in the playoffs, so I'm going with the "safer" option.
Pick: Esco
Matchup 2 - Gutman vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Jameis is truly a one-man roller coaster ride, but his upside has been enough to make him a weekly stud over the last month. And while he gets an easy matchup against Detroit, he literally fractured a bone in his throwing hand which won't help his "accuracy." Dak has been equally as inconsistent, just with a higher floor and lower ceiling. The Rams seem to have potentially figured things out on defense recently, so I'm going entirely based on the opposing defense here.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks/Flex:
This is the studfest of this matchup. Cook, Barkley, Carson, and Chubb are arguably four of the top 6 RBs this week as their workload and matchups are all excellent. Chubb may lose touches to Hunt, and Cook may still be banged up, but I expect all of these guys to approach or exceed 20 points. The flex position is also included in here and if either Mostert or Sanders has big day, they could swing the entire matchup. Having said all that, I would be throwing a dart if I tried to make a choice here.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Godwin has the best situation here here, but Julio and Amari can easily match his output. The Jameis/Godwin and Dak/Amari combos could lead to some huge point totals if they connect for TDs, and will go a long way towards determining who wins overall. My WR2 situation is less than ideal, with Lockett borderline unstartable, a boom/bust Mike Williams, and the potential for Thielen's return. I honestly don't know who I'm going to start right now, but it probably won't matter either way.
Edge: Gutman
Tight End:
In theory, this position is the biggest single edge in the entire matchup. However, I traded Hollister to Gutman for one subpar week of Vance McDonald, and if Karma is going to come back to bite me this week, this is where it will happen. Not something I'm willing to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
Big Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Gutman has been riding with the Saints for a while, but after last week, he has to feel a little bit rattled. The Colts aren't an elite offense, but they're also not likely to commit multiple turnovers, limiting the floor and ceiling for NOLA. I still haven't made my choice between the Packers and Giants, but each one is probably about the same as the Saints. I doubt there is much of a difference here no matter who I go with,
Edge: Even
Overall:
Another extremely tough choice. If Jameis was fully healthy, I think the connection with Godwin against the Lions would be enough for me to make myself a clear favorite. But his injury (again: to his throwing hand), and Carson's improved situation makes this one essentially a toss up. Last week I didn't think Karma would come back to bite me, but this week, I have the Hollister situation and a number of tough lineup choices that increases the odds that I fuck myself. Given that the rest of our players are done before SNF, I think the Saints make a big play on MNF to give Gutman the win.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 9-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/9
NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-10) at Bengals - Win
Jaguars (+7) at Raiders - Win
Vikings (-1.5) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019 Record: 39-32-2 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-10.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 12-11-1 (-1.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgetown (-3) vs. Syracuse - Win
Seton Hall (-2.5) at Rutgers - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7) at Houston - Win
Ohio State (-8) at Minnesota - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 12-10 (+0.92 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+2) at Chelsea - Win
Wolves (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Arsenal (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 31-23-11 (+2.43 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Crystal Palace (+155) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Lyon (Pick) vs. RB Leipzig - Push
Club Brugge (+0.5) vs. Real Madrid - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Shahktar (+155) vs. Atalanta - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Thursday, December 5, 2019
First Round Preview
Well that was an eventful week. Bennett shocked Levine, Ajay somehow avoided Shot Spot, AGD put Nick on the brink, and I sold my soul for a better chance at a chef's coat. FALAFEL at its finest if you ask me.
That leaves us with six teams vying for either their first chef's coat (Barnard, Gutman, me), a chef's hat (AGD, Esco), or an oven mitt (Alan). AGD and Gut can sit back and watch the carnage this week, but it's time to break down each matchup Dr. Z style.
Matchup 1 - Alan vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Relying on Jameis to not shit the bed has me admittedly nervous, but his ceiling is unquestionably high. The hardest part for Alan is picking between Rodgers and Cousins. Rodgers is the safe bet, but could be in a situation where the Packers blow out the Skins and stop passing. Kirk theoretically could be in the same boat against the Lions, but Dalvin's injury might complicate things. Either way Alan wins here, but I wouldn't want to make the choice he's facing.
Edge: Alan
Runningbacks:
I have to admit that Alan's success this year with his motley crew of RBs has been shocking. Unfortunately for him, there is once again not a clear cut lineup decision. Murray is relatively easy to bench against San Fran, but picking between Monty, Ekeler, and RoJo won't be easy. Ordinarily, Alan's choice here wouldn't matter against my dynamic duo, but Dalvin is banged up and Saquon has looked mortal. I'm dreading a re-injury situation for Dalvin, but with Eli back in the saddle I can easily see 10+ checkdowns for Barkley. I'm still ahead here, but not nearly as much as it looks on paper.
Edge: Kumpf
Wide Receivers:
This is where the matchup will be decided. Davante has the same potential blowout issue as Rodgers, but he's been lights out the last couple of weeks. Courtland Sutton is low-key one of the best draft picks this year, but he's also dealing with Drew Lock. Godwin is boom/bust, and Lockett is coming off a goose egg, so I'm not in much better shape. Either team could have their top two receivers combine for 50 or fail to break 15.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
Another close matchup here. Kelce and Kittle are likely the top two TEs in any given week, so picking between them is basically a coin flip. Kittle has the better matchup, but the Pats D has looked mediocre or worse against actual NFL offenses, so it's not that simple. I think Kittle is safer assuming Belichick doubles Kelce, but this is too close to call.
Edge: Even
Flex:
If I win this week, it will be because I chose the correct flex. Between a healthy Alshon against the Giants on MNF, a recovering Thielen against the Lions, and a boom/bust James Washington catching balls from Duck, there are a lot of factors to consider. I'm likely picking between Thielen and Alshon, and while I would love to have two guys on MNF, the late-scratch possibility is real with Jeffrey. Extremely high ceiling/low floor situation here. Alan currently has Cole Beasley in this spot, and while he could swap in Latavius or RoJo, he has a 5-15 point range compared to my 0-25 point range. I'd rather have my situation, but only barely.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Both the Packers and Browns are mediocre defenses playing bottom five offenses. And while Dalton and the Skins running game both looked good last week, I can't picture that happening again. No clear leader here.
Edge: Even
Overall:
This was a much more even matchup than I expected. ESPN is currently favoring me by over 15, but I'm pretty sure they have favored me in every matchup this season, and I wound up below .500 (albeit with a Week 13 tank). I think my team is more talented on paper, and has slightly better matchups, but injuries and recently poor performances have me a little worried. That's all before getting into the karma discussion, where I'm sorely lacking and Alan has a natural lead even before that. However, while I fully expect my MNF decision last week to come back to bite me at some point, I don't think it happens this week, and I get my first FALAFEL playoff victory.
Pick: Kumpf
Matchup 2 - Esco vs. Barnard
Quarterbacks:
Barnard's hope in this matchup overall hinges on how well the Indy passing game does against Tampa Bay. In theory, it's a great matchup that could yield huge days for Brisket and TY (if he plays). I don't love needing that huge day, but it's certainly in play. On the flip side, Josh Allen gets a formidable and opportunistic Baltimore D, which will likely lead to multiple turnovers. I still think the Bills have enough success to make this one close, but the opposing defenses make the choice for me here.
Slight Edge: Barnard
Runningbacks/Flex:
Pretty shocking that these RB groups made the playoffs. The Kansas City rush defense has been exploitable for most of the season, which should benefit Barnard with Sony, but could also lead to second straight big day for James White if the Pats fall behind and run a lot of draws/screens. Those two basically cancel each other out, and while I like Freeman the most out of the rest, I like Scarborough the least, making this essentially a wash overall.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Mike Thomas revenge game! The one true stud in this matchup gets a tough San Fran secondary, albeit one with a banged up Richard Sherman. That may limit the ceiling for Thomas, as does the presence of David Blough for Golladay against a leaky Vikings defense, but I still like Esco's odds here. Ridley and Edelman isn't a terrible combo, but it would look nicer with a healthy TY (and a lot nicer with Michael Thomas). Barring a medical miracle in Indy, this is pretty straightforward.
Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Meh. Cook has been better, but gets a rough matchup, while it's shocking that Graham is still rostered despite his better matchup. Flip a coin.
Edge: Even
D/ST:
I'm not sure if it's blind homerism, or the perceived lack of better options, but I can't honestly believe Barnard is going to roll out a defense facing Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, especially because they have looked like shit against the two good offenses they've faced this year. Unless he makes a change, either one of Esco's defenses should own this matchup.
Edge: Esco
Overall:
Barnard's mere presence in the playoffs is controversial enough, and while I know he feels awkward about how it happened, he is still holding out some hope for a miracle run. The only way I see that happening is if TY plays and the Colts break 40 in Tampa. Right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so I have to go with the team that has a higher ceiling and a higher floor.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 7-7 (Gave myself a win for picking myself over Barnard. Tanking doesn't affect pick accuracy, says the guy who tanked and tracks pick accuracy.)
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/2
NFL Bets
Browns (-7) vs. Bengals - Win
49ers (+3) at Saints - Win
Colts (+3) at Bucs - Push
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Eagles (-9.5) vs. Giants - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 36-31-2 (-0.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Georgia (+7) vs. LSU - Loss
Wisconsin (+17) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Last Week: 0-2
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
The Good
Hawks under 34
Nets under 43.5
Mavericks over 41.5
T-Wolves over 35.5
Thunder over 32.5
Suns over 29.5
Blazers under 46.5
Spurs under 45.5
Jazz under 53.5
The Bad
Pacers under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Grizzlies over 26.5
The Ugly
Bulls over 33.5
Lakers under 50.5
Bucks under 57.5
NCAAB Bets
Butler (-4) vs. Florida - Win
Ohio State (-7) vs. Penn State - Win
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
West Virginia (-3.5) at St. John's - Loss
Wake Forest (+5) vs. NC State - Loss
Indiana (Pick) at Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland (-11) vs. Illinois - Loss
Georgetown (+4) at SMU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-8 (+1.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Aston Villa (+1.5) at Chelsea - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Win
Burnley (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Bournemouth (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 30-21-11 (+3.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 17-8 (+4.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
That leaves us with six teams vying for either their first chef's coat (Barnard, Gutman, me), a chef's hat (AGD, Esco), or an oven mitt (Alan). AGD and Gut can sit back and watch the carnage this week, but it's time to break down each matchup Dr. Z style.
Matchup 1 - Alan vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Relying on Jameis to not shit the bed has me admittedly nervous, but his ceiling is unquestionably high. The hardest part for Alan is picking between Rodgers and Cousins. Rodgers is the safe bet, but could be in a situation where the Packers blow out the Skins and stop passing. Kirk theoretically could be in the same boat against the Lions, but Dalvin's injury might complicate things. Either way Alan wins here, but I wouldn't want to make the choice he's facing.
Edge: Alan
Runningbacks:
I have to admit that Alan's success this year with his motley crew of RBs has been shocking. Unfortunately for him, there is once again not a clear cut lineup decision. Murray is relatively easy to bench against San Fran, but picking between Monty, Ekeler, and RoJo won't be easy. Ordinarily, Alan's choice here wouldn't matter against my dynamic duo, but Dalvin is banged up and Saquon has looked mortal. I'm dreading a re-injury situation for Dalvin, but with Eli back in the saddle I can easily see 10+ checkdowns for Barkley. I'm still ahead here, but not nearly as much as it looks on paper.
Edge: Kumpf
Wide Receivers:
This is where the matchup will be decided. Davante has the same potential blowout issue as Rodgers, but he's been lights out the last couple of weeks. Courtland Sutton is low-key one of the best draft picks this year, but he's also dealing with Drew Lock. Godwin is boom/bust, and Lockett is coming off a goose egg, so I'm not in much better shape. Either team could have their top two receivers combine for 50 or fail to break 15.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
Another close matchup here. Kelce and Kittle are likely the top two TEs in any given week, so picking between them is basically a coin flip. Kittle has the better matchup, but the Pats D has looked mediocre or worse against actual NFL offenses, so it's not that simple. I think Kittle is safer assuming Belichick doubles Kelce, but this is too close to call.
Edge: Even
Flex:
If I win this week, it will be because I chose the correct flex. Between a healthy Alshon against the Giants on MNF, a recovering Thielen against the Lions, and a boom/bust James Washington catching balls from Duck, there are a lot of factors to consider. I'm likely picking between Thielen and Alshon, and while I would love to have two guys on MNF, the late-scratch possibility is real with Jeffrey. Extremely high ceiling/low floor situation here. Alan currently has Cole Beasley in this spot, and while he could swap in Latavius or RoJo, he has a 5-15 point range compared to my 0-25 point range. I'd rather have my situation, but only barely.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Both the Packers and Browns are mediocre defenses playing bottom five offenses. And while Dalton and the Skins running game both looked good last week, I can't picture that happening again. No clear leader here.
Edge: Even
Overall:
This was a much more even matchup than I expected. ESPN is currently favoring me by over 15, but I'm pretty sure they have favored me in every matchup this season, and I wound up below .500 (albeit with a Week 13 tank). I think my team is more talented on paper, and has slightly better matchups, but injuries and recently poor performances have me a little worried. That's all before getting into the karma discussion, where I'm sorely lacking and Alan has a natural lead even before that. However, while I fully expect my MNF decision last week to come back to bite me at some point, I don't think it happens this week, and I get my first FALAFEL playoff victory.
Pick: Kumpf
Matchup 2 - Esco vs. Barnard
Quarterbacks:
Barnard's hope in this matchup overall hinges on how well the Indy passing game does against Tampa Bay. In theory, it's a great matchup that could yield huge days for Brisket and TY (if he plays). I don't love needing that huge day, but it's certainly in play. On the flip side, Josh Allen gets a formidable and opportunistic Baltimore D, which will likely lead to multiple turnovers. I still think the Bills have enough success to make this one close, but the opposing defenses make the choice for me here.
Slight Edge: Barnard
Runningbacks/Flex:
Pretty shocking that these RB groups made the playoffs. The Kansas City rush defense has been exploitable for most of the season, which should benefit Barnard with Sony, but could also lead to second straight big day for James White if the Pats fall behind and run a lot of draws/screens. Those two basically cancel each other out, and while I like Freeman the most out of the rest, I like Scarborough the least, making this essentially a wash overall.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Mike Thomas revenge game! The one true stud in this matchup gets a tough San Fran secondary, albeit one with a banged up Richard Sherman. That may limit the ceiling for Thomas, as does the presence of David Blough for Golladay against a leaky Vikings defense, but I still like Esco's odds here. Ridley and Edelman isn't a terrible combo, but it would look nicer with a healthy TY (and a lot nicer with Michael Thomas). Barring a medical miracle in Indy, this is pretty straightforward.
Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Meh. Cook has been better, but gets a rough matchup, while it's shocking that Graham is still rostered despite his better matchup. Flip a coin.
Edge: Even
D/ST:
I'm not sure if it's blind homerism, or the perceived lack of better options, but I can't honestly believe Barnard is going to roll out a defense facing Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, especially because they have looked like shit against the two good offenses they've faced this year. Unless he makes a change, either one of Esco's defenses should own this matchup.
Edge: Esco
Overall:
Barnard's mere presence in the playoffs is controversial enough, and while I know he feels awkward about how it happened, he is still holding out some hope for a miracle run. The only way I see that happening is if TY plays and the Colts break 40 in Tampa. Right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so I have to go with the team that has a higher ceiling and a higher floor.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 7-7 (Gave myself a win for picking myself over Barnard. Tanking doesn't affect pick accuracy, says the guy who tanked and tracks pick accuracy.)
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/2
NFL Bets
Browns (-7) vs. Bengals - Win
49ers (+3) at Saints - Win
Colts (+3) at Bucs - Push
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Eagles (-9.5) vs. Giants - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 36-31-2 (-0.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Georgia (+7) vs. LSU - Loss
Wisconsin (+17) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Last Week: 0-2
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
The Good
Hawks under 34
Nets under 43.5
Mavericks over 41.5
T-Wolves over 35.5
Thunder over 32.5
Suns over 29.5
Blazers under 46.5
Spurs under 45.5
Jazz under 53.5
The Bad
Pacers under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Grizzlies over 26.5
The Ugly
Bulls over 33.5
Lakers under 50.5
Bucks under 57.5
NCAAB Bets
Butler (-4) vs. Florida - Win
Ohio State (-7) vs. Penn State - Win
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
West Virginia (-3.5) at St. John's - Loss
Wake Forest (+5) vs. NC State - Loss
Indiana (Pick) at Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland (-11) vs. Illinois - Loss
Georgetown (+4) at SMU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-8 (+1.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Aston Villa (+1.5) at Chelsea - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Win
Burnley (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Bournemouth (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 30-21-11 (+3.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 17-8 (+4.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
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