The Stevens Bowl is too big of an event for a standard Dr. Z breakdown, so I'm coming in hot with a full multimedia experience. Before we get to the podcast, as is tradition...
ALAN! BILLY! MAYBE MARSHALL! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL!
Now on to the podcast, where I make my Stevens Bowl prediction:
Zacherman and Levine also face off in the Rogers Bowl, which gives the winner a small cash prize but not much else. I won't give them the full breakdown, but I will pick Zacherman in a close one.
Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 3-1
Overall Record: 5-10
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Friday, December 16, 2016
Playoff Preview - Semi-finals
Last week I said that Levine had a slight edge over me at the runningback position thanks to Leveon Bell. Prior to the Pats D playing on MNF, Leveon had a slight edge on my entire team. So that went well. The average margin of victory in the first round was over 40 points, so hopefully the semi-finals are a little bit closer. There's a Stevens Bowl bid on the line for fuck's sake. On to the breakdown...
1. Alan vs. 5. Zacherman
Quarterbacks
These teams have two of the top QBs in the league, but are going up against two of the best pass defenses in the league, both on the road. Luck is also a bit banged up and has a terrible offensive line, so the odds of him making it through the game are considerably less than 100%. I hate picking Brady, but if the Pats win, it moves them closer to home field advantage and moves Denver closer to missing the playoffs. Hard to bet against him there.
Edge: Zacherman
Runningbacks
Alan has had a pretty well-rounded team this year, but if he wins his second title, it will be on the back of Shady McCoy. He has the potential to put up 30+ this week, and leads the way here. Murray has had a solid season as well, but Derrick Henry is starting to steal some carries, and the matchup isn't as juicy as Shady's. The wild card is Kenneth Farrow. He may sound like an accountant, but he could swing this matchup if Gordon is officially out. If Gordon does play, Alan's flex is a clear weakness, but it doesn't sound good for Melvin right now.
Big Edge: Alan
Wide Receivers
This is where Z needs to make up his ground. Allen Robinson and Michael Crabtree have been fine, but have relatively low ceilings. If the cards break correctly, Z's trio could all have huge days. If Sammy catches a long TD, that could mean one less drive for Shady, and more carries for Gillislee in a blowout, so that could be hugely important. Against Cleveland, anything can happen.
Edge: Zacherman
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate has had a very solid season, but he's been extremely TD-dependent. Against Dallas that might not be a bad thing, but still he's no Greg Olsen.
Edge: Alan
Defense/Special Teams
Zacherman's weird loyalty to Carolina's defense has been baffling at times, but it paid off last week. This week they're going up against a top offense in Washington, so I still don't really understand his logic. Alan is rocking the Fins D against Bryce Petty and the Jets, making this our most one-sided positional matchup.
Big Edge: Alan
Overall
There is no one area where Z has a big edge, but he showed last week that his high ceiling can carry him. That said, Alan has probably the highest floor in the league and is unlikely to put up less than 75. I've been on the Z train since the draft, but it's hard to go against the Masandiassance.
Winner: Alan
2. BAM vs. 3 Levine
Quarterbacks
We are gonna see some points put up here. BAM has been riding Matty Ice all season, and gets a juicy matchup with the Niners who are tanking hard. Levine has Mariota looking for a bounceback against a Chiefs D that has been a little bipolar this year. Ryan's clearly the stud here, but if it turns into a blowout early, I could see him sitting out the second half. Mariota will need to play hard the entire game, and his legs could be the difference here. I expect 20+ from each of these guys, but I think Levine has a better chance of coming out on top.
Slight Edge: Levine
Runningbacks
Another amazing matchup here in Zeke vs. Bell. Impossible to pick between those two, so this position will be decided elsewhere. Jordan Howard has been an undercover reason why BAM is here right now, and he has Spencer Ware waiting the in the flex. Levine is starting Dion Lewis, who has scored 16.4 points on the season. I hate to pick against Leveon after he murdered me last week, but this shouldn't be close.
Big Edge: BAM
Wide Receivers
BAM has ODB against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Even with Levine rolling out three solid WRs, I might pick Beckham over the three of them combined. Having Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky-solid WR2, gives BAM the edge here too.
Edge: BAM
Tight Ends
C.J. Fiedorowicz against the Jags and Charles Clay against the Browns. Moving on...
Edge: Even
Defense/Special Teams
Levine continues his streaming against the Browns with Buffalo, while BAM does some streaming of his own against the Niners. With Rex clinging desperately to his job, I expect a ton of blitzing leading to sacks and turnovers. Higher ceiling than a mediocre Atlanta D.
Edge: Levine
Overall
I continue to have no idea how Levine made it this far, but he's had an absurd run of luck in terms of matchups (even if he didn't need it like last week). That ends this week, with BAM looking to make their first Stevens Bowl as a duo.
Winner: BAM
Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 1-1
Overall Record: 3-10
1. Alan vs. 5. Zacherman
Quarterbacks
These teams have two of the top QBs in the league, but are going up against two of the best pass defenses in the league, both on the road. Luck is also a bit banged up and has a terrible offensive line, so the odds of him making it through the game are considerably less than 100%. I hate picking Brady, but if the Pats win, it moves them closer to home field advantage and moves Denver closer to missing the playoffs. Hard to bet against him there.
Edge: Zacherman
Runningbacks
Alan has had a pretty well-rounded team this year, but if he wins his second title, it will be on the back of Shady McCoy. He has the potential to put up 30+ this week, and leads the way here. Murray has had a solid season as well, but Derrick Henry is starting to steal some carries, and the matchup isn't as juicy as Shady's. The wild card is Kenneth Farrow. He may sound like an accountant, but he could swing this matchup if Gordon is officially out. If Gordon does play, Alan's flex is a clear weakness, but it doesn't sound good for Melvin right now.
Big Edge: Alan
Wide Receivers
This is where Z needs to make up his ground. Allen Robinson and Michael Crabtree have been fine, but have relatively low ceilings. If the cards break correctly, Z's trio could all have huge days. If Sammy catches a long TD, that could mean one less drive for Shady, and more carries for Gillislee in a blowout, so that could be hugely important. Against Cleveland, anything can happen.
Edge: Zacherman
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate has had a very solid season, but he's been extremely TD-dependent. Against Dallas that might not be a bad thing, but still he's no Greg Olsen.
Edge: Alan
Defense/Special Teams
Zacherman's weird loyalty to Carolina's defense has been baffling at times, but it paid off last week. This week they're going up against a top offense in Washington, so I still don't really understand his logic. Alan is rocking the Fins D against Bryce Petty and the Jets, making this our most one-sided positional matchup.
Big Edge: Alan
Overall
There is no one area where Z has a big edge, but he showed last week that his high ceiling can carry him. That said, Alan has probably the highest floor in the league and is unlikely to put up less than 75. I've been on the Z train since the draft, but it's hard to go against the Masandiassance.
Winner: Alan
2. BAM vs. 3 Levine
Quarterbacks
We are gonna see some points put up here. BAM has been riding Matty Ice all season, and gets a juicy matchup with the Niners who are tanking hard. Levine has Mariota looking for a bounceback against a Chiefs D that has been a little bipolar this year. Ryan's clearly the stud here, but if it turns into a blowout early, I could see him sitting out the second half. Mariota will need to play hard the entire game, and his legs could be the difference here. I expect 20+ from each of these guys, but I think Levine has a better chance of coming out on top.
Slight Edge: Levine
Runningbacks
Another amazing matchup here in Zeke vs. Bell. Impossible to pick between those two, so this position will be decided elsewhere. Jordan Howard has been an undercover reason why BAM is here right now, and he has Spencer Ware waiting the in the flex. Levine is starting Dion Lewis, who has scored 16.4 points on the season. I hate to pick against Leveon after he murdered me last week, but this shouldn't be close.
Big Edge: BAM
Wide Receivers
BAM has ODB against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Even with Levine rolling out three solid WRs, I might pick Beckham over the three of them combined. Having Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky-solid WR2, gives BAM the edge here too.
Edge: BAM
Tight Ends
C.J. Fiedorowicz against the Jags and Charles Clay against the Browns. Moving on...
Edge: Even
Defense/Special Teams
Levine continues his streaming against the Browns with Buffalo, while BAM does some streaming of his own against the Niners. With Rex clinging desperately to his job, I expect a ton of blitzing leading to sacks and turnovers. Higher ceiling than a mediocre Atlanta D.
Edge: Levine
Overall
I continue to have no idea how Levine made it this far, but he's had an absurd run of luck in terms of matchups (even if he didn't need it like last week). That ends this week, with BAM looking to make their first Stevens Bowl as a duo.
Winner: BAM
Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 1-1
Overall Record: 3-10
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Playoff Preview - First Round
Now that the contenders have been separated from the pretenders, it's time to look at the matchups that will determine who gets the Chef's Coat, asterisk or otherwise. It's been a couple of years, but I'm returning to the tried and true Dr. Z breakdown format.
3. Levine vs. 6. Kumpf
Quarterbacks
Levine's trade for Mariota went relatively under the radar, but went a long way toward keeping him out of the vulnerable 6th seed. He's also coming off an absurdly late bye, giving him two weeks to prepare for his opponent. Unfortunately, said opponent is the Broncos, who eat opposing QBs for breakfast. On my side, I heavily debated starting Eli in primetime instead of Carr on the road on a short week. But as the Giants fans in this league can attest, having Eli crush your dreams is a tough way to go out. If Mariota breaks 12 against Denver, Levine should be pleased.
Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks
Bell is he clear stud here, and his performance in Buffalo will go a long towards determining the outcome of this matchup. The rest of the RBs will be interesting as my guys have better matchups and bigger roles, but Dion Lewis looms as the X-Factor. If Belichick game plans Lewis as his Gronk replacement, I could easily see a 4 rushing yard, 122 receiving yard performance. I'll hedge with the slight edge pick.
Slight Edge: Levine
Wide Receivers
Another position where the New England game plan may sway the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell has looked good the last three weeks, and he could easily have a big day if Bill so chooses. The rest of the guys are a little bit more predictable, but injuries will play a role here. Julio is dealing with turf toe, and while I'm starting him if he's playing, a goose egg in the playoffs would be pretty fitting karma-wise. On the Levine side, Michael Thomas is banged up, which could mean good things for Cooks. Hard to pick a clear winner here.
Edge: Even
Tight End
Yes, the Jets just allowed Dwayne Allen to go wild against them. But Vance McDonald sounds like a magician who performs in Vegas. I also have Delanie catching passes from Mariota, against a Denver D that is way worse against TEs than WRs.
Edge: Kumpf
Defense/Special Teams
Not a lot of great streaming options for me this week, so I'm rolling out the Pats for the fourth straight week against a Ravens team that put up 38 last week. Levine has a rejuvenated Cincy team against the Browns.
Big Edge: Levine
Overall
This one will likely be decided early. If KC shuts down Oakland tonight, and I end up with less than 25 from Carr and Amari, I think Bell and Co. will carry Levine to an easy victory. If I get close to 40? I think I'm in good shape. This will be close either way, but I think Levine's MNF guys and Julio's injury will end up dooming me.
Winner: Levine
4. Zacherman vs. 5. Gutman
Note: Gutman has intermittent access to his lineup. He made the moves to pickup and start Detroit's D, and is voluntarily choosing to start Ted Ginn Jr. over Diggs. If Ingram doesn't play, I'll be subbing in Hightower, but otherwise these decisions are his.
Quarterbacks
Brady vs. Rivers is a heavyweight showdown. It's really hard to pick against Brady in primetime, but going up against a pretty good Baltimore D, and without Gronk, leaves the door open here. Rivers gets a Panthers D that got lit the fuck up last week. I think they play better this week, but Rivers gonna get his.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Runningbacks
DeMarco Murray should be able to do at least some damage against Denver (the Tenn/Den game has a weirdly large impact on these matchups), but Terrance West is slowly getting phased out of Baltimore's already terrible running game. Whoever starts for New Orleans has a 20-point ceiling, which is always nice, and David Johnson has pretty much a 20-point floor. This one should be pretty one-sided.
Big Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers
Jordy gets a Seattle pass defense sans Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep ball more than usual. Combine that with boom/bust Mike Wallace and sneaky great pickup Sammy Watkins, and Z could get 50 from his WRs. He'll probably need it this week, even if I don't love Gut's receivers. Thomas and Hilton should average about 10 each, but I can't say I ever recommend putting your season in Ted Ginn's shaky hands.
Edge: Zacherman
Tight End
If things don't work out for Z this season, he'll look back and say what if? What if he didn't trade Dez for Arian Foster? What if he didn't blow Week 1 with terrible roster management and get a bye? But the biggest what if is What if Gronk was healthy? Alas, he's not, leaving us with Jared Cook vs. Make Cameron Brate Again. Z still gets the nod here, but it's not as big of an edge as it would have been.
Edge: Zacherman
Defense/Special Teams
Gutman is banking that even a bottom-rung defense can put up points against Matt Barkley. Not a terrible bet to make, but also leaves him somewhat vulnerable for a goose egg. Zacherman has the uncomfortable situation of his defense facing one of his offensive weapons. I don't think this position has a huge effect on the outcome here, but I'll go with the team playing at home against Barkley.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Overall
I've been a fan of Z's team since preseason. Even after his ill-fated Arian trade, I thought his ceiling was among the highest in the league. But the Gronk injury is one step too far, and I think his road ends here. Gutman has better matchups, and with a win would get Alshon back for the semi-finals against Alan. Bless the rains.
Winner: Gutman
3. Levine vs. 6. Kumpf
Quarterbacks
Levine's trade for Mariota went relatively under the radar, but went a long way toward keeping him out of the vulnerable 6th seed. He's also coming off an absurdly late bye, giving him two weeks to prepare for his opponent. Unfortunately, said opponent is the Broncos, who eat opposing QBs for breakfast. On my side, I heavily debated starting Eli in primetime instead of Carr on the road on a short week. But as the Giants fans in this league can attest, having Eli crush your dreams is a tough way to go out. If Mariota breaks 12 against Denver, Levine should be pleased.
Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks
Bell is he clear stud here, and his performance in Buffalo will go a long towards determining the outcome of this matchup. The rest of the RBs will be interesting as my guys have better matchups and bigger roles, but Dion Lewis looms as the X-Factor. If Belichick game plans Lewis as his Gronk replacement, I could easily see a 4 rushing yard, 122 receiving yard performance. I'll hedge with the slight edge pick.
Slight Edge: Levine
Wide Receivers
Another position where the New England game plan may sway the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell has looked good the last three weeks, and he could easily have a big day if Bill so chooses. The rest of the guys are a little bit more predictable, but injuries will play a role here. Julio is dealing with turf toe, and while I'm starting him if he's playing, a goose egg in the playoffs would be pretty fitting karma-wise. On the Levine side, Michael Thomas is banged up, which could mean good things for Cooks. Hard to pick a clear winner here.
Edge: Even
Tight End
Yes, the Jets just allowed Dwayne Allen to go wild against them. But Vance McDonald sounds like a magician who performs in Vegas. I also have Delanie catching passes from Mariota, against a Denver D that is way worse against TEs than WRs.
Edge: Kumpf
Defense/Special Teams
Not a lot of great streaming options for me this week, so I'm rolling out the Pats for the fourth straight week against a Ravens team that put up 38 last week. Levine has a rejuvenated Cincy team against the Browns.
Big Edge: Levine
Overall
This one will likely be decided early. If KC shuts down Oakland tonight, and I end up with less than 25 from Carr and Amari, I think Bell and Co. will carry Levine to an easy victory. If I get close to 40? I think I'm in good shape. This will be close either way, but I think Levine's MNF guys and Julio's injury will end up dooming me.
Winner: Levine
4. Zacherman vs. 5. Gutman
Note: Gutman has intermittent access to his lineup. He made the moves to pickup and start Detroit's D, and is voluntarily choosing to start Ted Ginn Jr. over Diggs. If Ingram doesn't play, I'll be subbing in Hightower, but otherwise these decisions are his.
Quarterbacks
Brady vs. Rivers is a heavyweight showdown. It's really hard to pick against Brady in primetime, but going up against a pretty good Baltimore D, and without Gronk, leaves the door open here. Rivers gets a Panthers D that got lit the fuck up last week. I think they play better this week, but Rivers gonna get his.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Runningbacks
DeMarco Murray should be able to do at least some damage against Denver (the Tenn/Den game has a weirdly large impact on these matchups), but Terrance West is slowly getting phased out of Baltimore's already terrible running game. Whoever starts for New Orleans has a 20-point ceiling, which is always nice, and David Johnson has pretty much a 20-point floor. This one should be pretty one-sided.
Big Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers
Jordy gets a Seattle pass defense sans Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep ball more than usual. Combine that with boom/bust Mike Wallace and sneaky great pickup Sammy Watkins, and Z could get 50 from his WRs. He'll probably need it this week, even if I don't love Gut's receivers. Thomas and Hilton should average about 10 each, but I can't say I ever recommend putting your season in Ted Ginn's shaky hands.
Edge: Zacherman
Tight End
If things don't work out for Z this season, he'll look back and say what if? What if he didn't trade Dez for Arian Foster? What if he didn't blow Week 1 with terrible roster management and get a bye? But the biggest what if is What if Gronk was healthy? Alas, he's not, leaving us with Jared Cook vs. Make Cameron Brate Again. Z still gets the nod here, but it's not as big of an edge as it would have been.
Edge: Zacherman
Defense/Special Teams
Gutman is banking that even a bottom-rung defense can put up points against Matt Barkley. Not a terrible bet to make, but also leaves him somewhat vulnerable for a goose egg. Zacherman has the uncomfortable situation of his defense facing one of his offensive weapons. I don't think this position has a huge effect on the outcome here, but I'll go with the team playing at home against Barkley.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Overall
I've been a fan of Z's team since preseason. Even after his ill-fated Arian trade, I thought his ceiling was among the highest in the league. But the Gronk injury is one step too far, and I think his road ends here. Gutman has better matchups, and with a win would get Alshon back for the semi-finals against Alan. Bless the rains.
Winner: Gutman
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