Stevens Bowl XIII Preview

Guess who's back? I'm taking a brief break from the end of Paternity Leave to write the blog, as it apparently brings luck to whoever writes it. The league narrowly avoided the darkest timeline, but things are still pretty rough from a rooting perspective. But now that the we've completed the semi-final Birthday Buddy Bowl and Fraud Bowl, we're left with...

Weissbard! Kumpf! It's the Steven's Bowl XIII!

(While Barnard's collapse was hilarious, it did deprive us of a potentially all-time Elf Yourself. But I make the rules, so here you go.)

I'm honestly not sure if the league would prefer me to finally get my coat, or a full blown Danasty complete with an oven mitt. Let's break it down.

Stevens Bowl XIII - Kumpf vs. Weissbard

Quarterback
I'm on the record calling Justin Herbert the second coming of Carson Wentz, but he is clearly better than Kirk Cousins (who is still shockingly QB9 on the season). Matchup-wise, Denver's defense is more difficult than Green Bay's, but it's supposed to be 12 degrees in Green Bay on Sunday and I don't picture Cousins liking the cold. If Weiss wants to repeat, he needs at least a 10 point advantage here, and on paper he should get it.

Edge: Weissbard

Runningback

This is probably the weakest RB situation we've ever had in a Stevens Bowl. Mixon has been shockingly reliable all season, and Montgomery hasn't been too much worse when he's healthy, but beyond that jeeeez. I doubt me or Dan makes a final lineup decision until Sunday, but we're likely seeing at least two of Latavius Murray, Myles Gaskin, Dare Ogunbowale, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Derrick Gore, and Duke Johnson, feature prominently in the biggest game of the season. I don't think anything is really predictable here beyond the top 2, and Monty's workload against a pathetic G-Men team should offset the slight talent/situation advantage that Mixon has.

Edge: Even

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle's absurd workload is the primary reason why Weissbard is here in the first place. Combine that with Amari's quiet but steady WR2 season, and this is a strong position for Weissbard. But my WR situation is silly right now. Kupp's season has been in MVP discussions, Diontae Johnson has 17 more targets than Waddle, and AJ Brown is literally the only skill player in Tennessee. Even if Waddle and Amari have huge days, this position should be mine.

Big Edge: Kumpf

Tight End

Yes, Mark Andrews has been the TE1 for most of the season as an individual player. But the streamers that Weissbard has rolled out on  weekly basis have come close to outscoring Andrews while in Dan's lineup. He's probably rolling with Knox (underrated pickup of the year), but consider that Weiss has gotten 11 TDs from his Tight Ends this season. including ones from Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper, and Pat Freiermuth. All I'm saying is this is closer than it looks.

Edge: Kumpf

D/ST

I'm rolling with my Fins against a Titans team that loves to turn the ball over. Not ideal when I need a big day from AJB, but this scenario worked for Weissbard last week so I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. Dan is in much better shape with a solid Saints D facing whatever the hell is going on in Carolina.

Edge: Weissbard

Pick:

ESPN has me relatively heavily favored for a Stevens Bowl, which points scored and roster health would agree with. I also have the new dad bump working in my favor, though I'm unclear how that works against another dad. I think this will probably come down to Diontae on MNF, which means either an easy win or a broken collarbone after dropping his first pass. I've been on the luckier side with injuries and COVID so far this year, but I think this is where it comes to an end. Hopefully Sheila's first words are "reverse JuJu." Bring on the Danasty.

Pick: Weissbard

In the Rogers Bowl, I'll take Barnard and hope that he outscores both me and Weissbard to really maximize the pain.

Semi-Final Preview (Guest Post)

 Note: My paternity leave extends to the blog, so our defending champion has admirably and surprisingly offered to step in and write up a preview to the Final Four. I will likely put together some sort of Stevens Bowl preview next week, but until then, enjoy.

With our commish newly in charge of helping raise a human, I've volunteered as tribute to write the semi-final. You're probably thinking, oo a Hunger Games reference in the first line? Is he going movie theme? Maybe it'll just be a series of gifs hieroglyphic style for everyone to interpret for no words? Or in true Weissbard fashion will it be 3/4 of 1 matchup preview and then just stop? Honestly, probably the latter, maybe the gif thing, and definitely not movie themed. My previews are based very little on actual data/facts and more so on gut feeling which besides the past 3 years when I started using external drafting tools has led me to a sub-500 record which I am never going to recover from. (Tiger King themed preview????) Anyway, off we go.

Bernard vs The Bard

Constantly ranked #1 and #2 in the rivalry rankings, this is one of those matchups where nobody wants either of us to win (insert Larry David Palestinian Chicken gif)(Editor's Note: I am unsure if Weiss really wants me to insert this gif but I think it's funnier with the description). Barnard winning means all jokes about being terrible at fantasy come to an immediate stop, and Ajay will now only be able to respond to any of Barnard's trash talk with "chef's hat?" instead of "chef's coat?". If I win I become the first 3peat winner, can label myself a dynasty with 3 wins in 4 years, and receive validation that my incessant reverse jujuing and "oops wrong group" messages actually have a positive effect on things and will probably ramp up the frequency of said messages. So who will win? Great question Reap thanks for asking.

QB

Mahomes and the Chiefs in general have been playing lights out recently. A lot of that has been 2007 Super Bowl Champion, 18 wins 1 GIANT loss, defensive coordinator Spags, turning things around. But a hefty amount of that has also been Kelce remembering he's the best TE in the league and Tyreek focusing more on football and less on domestic abuse. Herbert on the other hand has been pretty consistent all season and has shrugged off any 2nd year wentz comparisons some people throw at him. Covid is obviously a huge factor here as Pat may be Reek/Kelce-less while Herbert could be Ek-less. Matchup wise, the chiefs have a suddenly tough again Stillers while the Chargers get to beat up on the Poopston (lol) Texans. If either one of Kelce/Tyreek play I'll call it a wash, otherwise I gotta give it to my man, DANCING RICK.

RB

(Author Note: I am seriously regretting starting this and may just stop now and give final projections)

Every single one of Barnard's RB is questionable right now except for Sony who barring another random Henderson injury is an rbbc at best. Josh Jacobs I feel like was hurt for a while and the raiders kinda stink? Stevenson should be solid, especially if the Pats play the Bills like they did last time and run it 99% of the plays. Sanders gets the shitty gmen but Hurts will probably vulture a bunch of TDs. Meanwhile for me I have Monty who should be solid but Nagy is dumb. CEH is interesting because if all those studs for KC are out, there could be lots of running/screens/dump offs. Or Mahomes will just keep slinging and people with names like Pringle will catch 3 TDs. We also have a Chuba revenge game going on though the Panthers have been possibly a bottom 5 NFL team recently and the Bucs run D is no joke which means we may get a Dookie (insert dookie from scary movie gif) Johnson game in the 2021 semi-finals. What a world. We'll call this a wash as well

WR

Obviously a lot of this depends on if Reek actually plays. If he doesn't, Barnard is left with correctly guessing who will have the breakout game between Pringle or Hardman or if Sutton will randomly decide to remember how to play football. Barnard could be smart and whoever he doesn't play, bet on the other person to make $, but instead he'll probably bet on Kelce to throw first TD pass. My WR situation has Waddle who is 2nd behind only Kupp in receptions this year. Or something like that, I forget the exact stat I read on reddit but trust me, it was a good one. And Cooper who honestly hasn't been great and the cowboys offense in general has been weird, but they are playing WFT. But maybe I'll play Jeudy to spite Barnard's team or Gabriel Davis so if he scores it's a double whammy vs the Pats, idk idk. Either way Barn dogs get the slight edge woof woof

TE

Knox has been GOLD for me (aaay), for a while, but then also poops the bed randomly. True of most TE this year outside a few studs. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a Giants fan but they might be historically the worst team at covering TE in the history of the NFL. Plus Goedert has the revenge game factor with a chip on his shoulder. Slight edge Barn dogs woof woof

Def

Rams @ Minnesota? No Cook now but Mattison is still a very good backup. I have no idea how good the Rams are against the run, but I assume Vikings will run the ball pretty well and JJ is good for a TD or 3. But Von and Donald are both very good football players. On the other side the Saints just completely shut down the Bucs which they were helped by a number of injuries, and the Dolphins have been hot (though against garbage teams). So Saints at the superdome should be nice, but I also feel like the Saints randomly shit the bed pretty frequently this year. Wash.

Winner - It'll be a toss up and Barnard will most likely send multiple mean texts to me. It's a good thing he doesn't know how to send video messages or I'd be getting his drunken squinty eyed anime hair video messages all day. Barnard squeaks one out by < 10 and the fraudbards season comes to an end.

Billy/Kumpf the Texas Dad Showdown

Kumpf may legitimately be happier with a chef coat than with a new daughter. And Billy is trying to finally prove that Marshall wasn't the brains behind the operation when he won his only chef's coat. Lots of bragging rights here like who the better dad is, who's better at Texasing, and I guess that's it. I'm trying to get this all done while Lily eats her breakfast so probably won't be my best work.

QB

Cam has looked so, so bad lately and the Bucs are coming off an awful 9-0 loss so you have to imagine they'll come out on fire. That being said, Cam is still probably good for a rushing TD and some yards there and Billy's other option Carr is hit or miss but does give him the Renfrow double up which could be nice, especially being in an early hole with AJ Brown's sudden resurgence. Kumpf on the other hand is trotting out either Captain Kirk who is probably good for a 187 yards 2 td 1 int game or Matty Ice who might put up 2 points or 25 vs the suddenly not awful Lions? Hopefully cousins built that popemobile plexiglass barrier he was talking about otherwise he might be catching Cook's coco. Don't think the qb will make or break this matchup, but giving slight edge to Kev.

(author's note: I've now moved from my laptop to phone so what was already a sloppy production is only getting worse) 

RB

I don't even think it's worth the effort to write about this since it's so one sided. Taylor alone might outscore Mixon and Reynolds/Gaskin. But then again Mixon had a nice month of 20+ weeks, which still leaves najee. If Billy wants a shot at winning this he's gonna need 20+ from each and hope Mixon doesn't score.

Wr (idk how to bold on my phone  but this does open up a whole world of emojiis ) 

Honestly as one sided as the rb matchup is, the wr matchup is just as skewed in the opposite direction. Feels weird saying this but without renfrow Billy would be in a terrible spot. I saw someone on reddit call him the Walmart Kupp which I think is an apt comparison. Other than that, Gallup and Osborn aren't bad (imagine that was italicized), but anything more than like 13 from each would be a surprise. Kuppf on the other hand has the top scoring player in fantasy who may break some wr record, a now healthy Aj brown who obviously had his monster game and the only viable receiver for big Ben who gets like 15 targets a game. Big advantage to commish 

TE

Another not even close one. While I declared myself the te whisperer, billy has consistently streamed TEs who end up scoring. Uzomah has a dope name and has randomly had 2td games, but it would be quite the surprise. Andrews meanwhile has cemented himself as the number 1 te and has multiple 30+ weeks which is more than most players in any position can say. I think Huntley playing actually helps because of the classic "new qb used te as a safety valve", but Lamar playing doesn't hurt either. Big advantage kev 

Def

Billy's been rolling with the bills which I think has been... Fine? They've had a bunch of double digit weeks which you can't ask for more from a defense, but have a tough matchup at the pats. Dolphins meanwhile are one of the hotter teams, though it has been vs teams like the jets twice, Texans, giants, etc. But it seems like the covid train is running on through nawlins and saints now have 3rd string qb. Kamara is still obviously a challenge but a rando at qb is never great. Slight advantage kumpf 

Final prediction 

Obviously fantasy is 90% luck except for last season and 2 seasons before that and potentially this season. But based on the past performances, my statistical model is showing big win for kumpf. I did also get a D in engineering stats (and a 4 or 5 on the AP test nbd) so take that prediction however you want. 

There you have it folks. By default, this is the best 2021 FALAFEL semi-final preview out there so no one can complain. A kumpf barnard final where Barnard can erase decades worth of embarrassment and forever hold this over Kevin's head. On the other hand, Kumpf can add a nuclear bomb option to his already impressive ammunition cache of ways to attack Barnard. Join us next week for the finals preview which will 100% be fully done.

Week 13 Recap/Final Playoff Scenarios

Probably the busiest week of my life, so keeping things brief outside of the playoff scenarios.

This is how things stand currently:

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. Ajay - NiJo Spot

For everything below, I'm considering 50 points as the cutoff for what is possible to make up in one week. I'm aware of the irony in saying this one week after Ajay beat me by 64, but we need to have a cutoff somewhere. This means that Esco, Gutman, Alan, Nick, and Bennett are eliminated barring an Ajay-like week.

Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This is straightforward. If Billy beats AGD or Weissbard loses to Esco, Billy clinches these spots. If Billy loses and Weissbard wins, then Weissbard clinches these spots.

Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.

Levine Division Champ
Despite Ajay's best efforts, I have clinched this spot and will be either the 3 seed (if I beat Barnard), 4 seed (if I lose to Barnard and Zacherman loses to Ajay), or 5 seed (if I lose and Z wins).

Gutman Division Champ
Things cleared up here a bit thanks to Barnard's solid week and Alan's Hot Potato performance, so Barnard has clinched this spot. If he wins, Barnard will be either the 3 seed (if Z loses, or if he outscores a winning Z team by 0.6) or 4 seed (if Z wins and Barnard doesn't outscore him by 0.6). If he loses, Barnard will be either the 4 or 5 seed depending on how the points scored breaks down for the 7-7 teams.

Wild Card 2
Zacherman controls his own destiny here. If he beats Ajay, he gets clinches this spot, but if he loses he is eliminated from this spot.. A Z loss means Ajay wins and takes over the lead for this spot. He has a 36 point lead over Levine, who would have to beat Alan and overcome that deficit to claim this spot. No one else is eligible.

NiJo Spot
This is heavily contingent on who clinches Wild Card 2. As it stands, the points situation for all eligible teams is:
- Ajay:         +0.0
- AGD:        -20.06
- Levine:     -36.32
- Marco:      -39.24
-Z:               -42.20

If Z beats Ajay, then the rest of these teams need to outscore Ajay by the points listed above. If Ajay beats Z, then you can all subtract 20.06 by the numbers above and that's how much you need to outscore AGD by. Wins and losses don't matter here outside of the Ajay/Z matchup.

Playoff predictions after MotW and Rivalry Week predictions.

Week 14 Power Rankings

1. Ajay (Last Week: 6th) 

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 1st) 

3. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 

4. Weissbard (Last Week: 7th) -

5. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th) 

7. AGD (Last Week: 4th) 

8. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

9. Barnard (Last Week: 8th) 

10. Nick (Last Week: 9th) 

11. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 

12. Alan (Last Week: 10th) 

13. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: Ajay vs. Zacherman

Everything is coming up Ajay right now. He has benefitted from the injuries to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Deebo Samuel, and if Darrell Henderson can get healthy, this is improbably the strongest roster in the league by a decent margin. Zacherman is not slouch either, but is currently holding on by a thread, with Stafford, Zeke, and JRob all struggling compared to a few weeks ago.

The stakes here are made clear above, but the winner clinches Wild Card 2, and the loser, while still in decent NiJo position, will have a lot more competition. The matchup will start quickly with Ajay's Rams, and end with some madness on MNF between Stafford, Hendo, and Van. The big differences in roster quality here are at WR2, TE, and Flex, where Ajay gets to roll out CD, Kittle, and Hendo against Zacherman's Van, Ertz, and Elijah Moore. That's a potential 50-point advantage from Ajay, which should be enough to clinch him the Wild Card while sending the NiJo race into chaos.

Pick: Ajay
MotW Record: 5-8

Rivalry Week 2 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
AGD over Billy
Levine over Alan
Mejia over Nick
Weissbard over Esco
Marco over Gutman
Ajay over Zacherman
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Playoff Prediction:
1. Weissbard
2. Billy
3. Kumpf
4. Ajay
5. Barnard
6. AGD

Week 12 Recap

The trade deadline came and went without any action, which means everyone's team is more or less set for the stretch run. I say more or less because injuries to both CMC and Dalvin have essentially ended Mejia's season, given Ajay re-renewed hope, and put a cap on Weissbard's upside (though not enough to re-introduce the Fraudbard narrative).

This will likely be the last "real" post of the season, as I have Finals next week and then a Baby the week after, so we'll do a deep dive on the playoff picture so I can make quick adjustments over the next two weeks.

This is how things stand currently:

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

There's madness in spots 4 and 5, but let's get everyone else out of the way first.

Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This has been a two-man race for awhile now, with Billy and Weissbard moving in lockstep. Billy has a 150 point lead over Weiss, so the magic number is essentially 1 for Billy to clinch. If Billy loses out and Weissbard wins out, then Weiss takes the spot. Everyone else is eliminated.

Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.

Levine Division Champ
I'm up over 100 points on both Levine and Mejia, so I would need to lose out and have one of them win out to fall out of this spot. Levine faces Weissbard and Mejia faces Billy this week, which makes a couple of these races very interesting.

NiJo Spot
This is where things start to get crazy. If I fall out of the division lead, I have an 85 point lead on everyone else here. So for the teams vying for this spot, you need to root for me over everyone else. I appreciate the support. Beyond that, AGD is up less than 60 on 8 teams (not including Weissbard, who is shockingly 10-2 with the 11th most points scored), all of whom I think are in play. Given that AGD is a game back in the Division/Wild Card 2 race, they have to be the favorites here, but I'd give Z, Levine, and Ajay a decent shot the way their rosters look right now.

Gutman Division Champ
What a mess this is. Barnard is currently in the lead by 4 points over Alan, with a strong AGD team lurking a game back and Gutman somehow still alive. Barnard and AGD face off in a huge matchup this week (teaser). A Barnard win eliminates AGD from the division, which also makes them the favorite for the NiJo spot, so everyone should be rooting against Barnard. I appreciate the support. A Barnard loss and an Alan win puts him in the driver's seat, but in Week 14, Alan faces Levine, AGD face Billy, and Barnard faces me, so I would assume none of them are favored to get to 8 wins. Right now I'll give Alan a slight advantage based on him facing Marco this week, but it's really 35% Alan, 30% AGD, 30% Barnard, 5% Gutman.

Wild Card 2
This is basically a battle between Zacherman and Levine. They are by far the two best 6-6 teams, and their rosters are in fine shape compared to some of the other contenders for this spot. Z gets Esco this week, which gives him a massive leg up in the race, followed by Ajay, while Levine gets Weissbard and Alan. If they both lose out, this gets very interesting, as it opens up room for the Barnard/Bennett/Alan/AGD/Ajay group of mediocrity to make a move out of the NiJo race. I'll give Z a slight edge over Levine thanks to the Esco matchup, but I don't think this will be any more clear a week from now.

Week 13 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 1st) 

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 

3. Billy (Last Week: 4th) 

4. AGD (Last Week: 5th) 

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th) 

6. Ajay (Last Week: 8th) 

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd) 

8. Barnard (Last Week: 9th) 

9. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 

10. Alan (Last Week: 10th) 

11. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

12. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Barnard

Almost every matchup has a big impact this week. Ajay and I are both projected over 110, the Weissbard/Levine and Billy/Mejia matchups could affect the bye and eliminate someone from the division, and every other matchup has at least NiJo implications. However, as discussed, Barnard vs. AGD has the most far-reaching impact. A Barnard win means AGD can only get into the playoffs via the NiJo spot, but if they lose then they may no longer be leading the pack. An AGD win throws the Gutman division into chaos heading into Rivalry Week. And Belfer still needs to pay Barnard, putting some financial incentives in play as well.

As for the matchup itself, Barnard is not in great shape. Deebo is out, Sanders is likely limited, and the Mahomes/Tyreek/Sutton trio will need to do a lot of legwork on SNF. Outside of Mahomes, I would expect the Rams D/ST to be his leading scorer, but they could easily break 20 in a Ramsey revenge game. 

AGD should have it a lot easier, though not in terms of lineup decisions. Luckily for them, Kamara plays Thursday so they should know his status before having to decide anything else. But even if he doesn't play, it looks like Jamaal Williams will get the start in Detroit, and the Godwin/Chase/Pittman trio all have great matchups. I've been overly confident in these picks a few times this year and seen it backfire, but unless Mahomes and Tyreek combine for 60, I don't see Barnard keeping up here.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 5-7
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 11 Recap

Another short week, this time holiday related. We'll hit up an old reliable gimmick this week, before focusing on playoff scenarios starting next week. 

Reminder that the trade deadline is Friday at 2am, so the last good time to upgrade your rosters is in the next 24 hours.

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Barnard - Division Champ
5. Levine - Wild Card 2
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

Billy and Weissbard have clinched the playoffs, and can clinch the byes with one more win each. Everything else is pretty wide open, though my 50 point lead over AGD puts me in the playoffs barring a major collapse.

Week 12 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 5th) 
Thankful For: Cooper Kupp. My self-proclaimed "worst draft pick" is the most reliable 20 points outside of JTT, and compliments a roster with no real weak spots now that I got Cam.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st) 
Thankful For: Austin Ekeler. Ekeler's explosion on SNF dragged Levine past me and into a position where he can win the division, or at the very least claim the second Wild Card instead of falling back to the NiJo pack.

3. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd) 
Thankful For: The schedule. The fact that he has faced almost 20ppg less than me and Levine is the only reason he'll be planning for the semi-finals while we struggle for playoff spots.

4. Billy (Last Week: 4th) 
Thankful For: Jonathan Taylor. It's honestly scary what his team would look like if Henry didn't get hurt, but Taylor is outdoing even peak Henry at this point in terms of consistency.

5. AGD (Last Week: 2nd) 
Thankful For: Weeks 1-9. During that time, enough points were banked that AGD shouldn't have an issue getting the NiJo spot unless I lose out. But a team that looked like the clear cut favorite a few weeks back is now hanging on by a thread.

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th) 
Thankful For: James Robinson. This was apparent immediately after the draft when Etienne got hurt, but the JRob pick provided enough juice that Z could withstand underperformance and injury from CEH, followed by a complete mental breakdown from Ridley, and still sit in playoff contention.

7. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 
Thankful For: Lack of expectations. As soon as Nick drafted Saquon, his season was pretty much lost in my mind, so he didn't need to deal with the usual late season disappointment of years past. He could still make the playoffs with a healthy roster, but an unlikely playoff push is much better than a collapse from the top.

8. Ajay (Last Week: 6th) 
Thankful For: Staying somewhat relevant despite a disastrous draft. Using his entire FAAB budget on Eli Mitchell kind of worked, Mattison and Darrel both provided random spot starts, and Waller allowed him to upgrade at QB, but injuries and trading Renfrow for a promptly released AP while CeeDee got hurt was the nail in the coffin.

9. Barnard (Last Week: 11th) 
Thankful For: Deebo Samuel. His Chiefs connection has run hot and cold all season, but Deebo has been the constant that has kept the Barndogs afloat. If he keeps getting legit carries at RB (and potentially RB positional eligibility?), Barnard will be a team no one wants to see in the playoffs.

10. Alan (Last Week: 12th) 
Thankful For: The Knicks. I assume Alan has moved on to basketball season as, despite a roster in dire need of help, he has made only 8 acquisitions all season, 2 less than any other team. Trading DK for Hunt looked promising until Hunt got hurt, while the Miles Sanders trade essentially netted him the Pats D/ST, which he ended up not starting to cost him a must-win matchup against Billy. Bing Bong.

11. Mejia (Last Week: 9th) 
Thankful For: Bennett not drafting the team. This team has always been flawed with upside, which is more than we've ever been able to say for a team that Bennett drafted. Since Bennett got involved, their biggest moves have been trading for Demetric Felton, adding Jarvis Landry (and dropping Felton) and dropping a $35 on a 2-8 Texans defense.

12. Marco (Last Week: 10th) 
Thankful For: Mike Williams. The rest of this roster has almost completely turned over, but Big Mike started off as an insane value pick, then completely fell apart, before making a "too little too late" resurgence. Which pretty much mirrors the performance of Marco's team.

13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 
Thankful For: Jalen Hurts. Gutman is shockingly one game under .500, but it would take a miracle for this team to make the playoffs. Hurt gives him the best shot, skyrocketing to QB1 on the season and forcing Gutman to look at Chinese websites for an oversized Eagles 1 jersey.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 
Thankful For: The season almost being over. I was going to say "his health" but I've seen how his hands and feet look recently, so I can't even say that with a straight face. DeAndre Swift was a good pick I guess.

Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Nick

Not a lot of options to choose from this week, so I'll pick a Loser Leaves Town match where the winner could make a late Wild Card 2 push, and the loser is likely out of range for the NiJo spot.

We start with the Thanksgiving fun of Josh and Moss vs. Diggs on opposite sides against a sometimes stout Saints defense. Alan needs the Bills to take page out of the Eagles book and run that ball to open up a 30 point lead if he wants to keep up with Nick's RBs. Barkley is unsurprisingly banged up again, but a healthy Chubb and a surprising Melvin are still a formidable duo. Evans has his own injury worry, which mean a lot rides on Thielen's shoulders to carry the WR load for Alan, along with more Jakobi Meyers than anyone needs at this point in the season. I think Nick has it locked up before Monday, but Lockett is a nice way to end the week as he's gotten 13 targets since Russ got back. ESPN has this one close but I think Nick wins by 20+.

Pick: Nick
MotW Record: 5-6
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 10 Recap/Mock Trade Mania

It's time for my favorite post the of year, Mock Trade Mania. We've already had 11 trades this year, but I'll be disappointed if we don't hit 15 before the deadline next Friday. As always, these mock trades aren't always the flashiest, but hopefully provide some fodder for trade talks that are eventually consummated.

But first, the Playoff Picture:

1. Billy - Bye - Division Champion
2. Weissbard - Bye - Wild Card 1
3. Kumpf - Division Champion
4. AGD - Division Champion
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Zacherman - NiJo Spot

We have some shuffling at the bottom here, as the Barndogs momentarily returned to early season form, and Z gained some big ground to take over the NiJo spot. I would currently put the top 3 teams as 90% or higher to make the playoffs, with AGD in the 75% range. Beyond that, it's a free-for-all for the second Wild Card (Barnard, Levine, Alan, Nick) and the NiJo spot (Z, Marco, plus the Wild Card contenders).

Before getting to the mock trades, we have a couple grades from last week to catch up on. All grades are based on when the trade was made.

Trade Grade 10 (Guest Grade by Esco)
Kumpf receives Miles Gaskin
Levine receives Marquise Brown

Levine was probably the only team with too many RBs. Prior to the trade he had at least 5 startable RBs, but guessing who the flex play is between Carter, Williams and Gaskin was almost impossible. Meanwhile, like the rest of us, Kumpf is desperate for warm bodies at RB after the Latavius injury. Unfortunately, Gaskin was the worst of Levine’s RBs AND still has his bye coming up so I’m not sure Kumpf really plugged a hole here. With or without Tua, the Miami offense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. However, Marquise was essentially expendable with his WR stable so at least he didn’t give up much for the most valuable resource in the league this year. 

For Levine, I’m not really sure this makes his roster management any easier unfortunately. He now has 4 WRs and 2 RBs that sit in the same relative band of value so deciding which 3 to start between Moore, Brown, Sanders, Cooks, Williams and Carter will still be a bit of a guessing game.  At least he has more depth for the bye weeks and injuries so I give him the slight edge here but I’m not sure this trade has any major playoff implications. 

Grades:
Kumpf: C+
Levine: B-
Editor's Note: Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: F

Trade Grade 11
Esco receives Russell Wilson and Christian Kirk
Weissbard receives Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Fraudbard is making moves to establish himself as a legit contender. Russ and Kirk should most likely have never seen his starting lineup barring an injury to Herbert, and in their place he gets a very interesting piece in CEH. He's supposedly return this coming week, and no one really knows what his role will be, but this was a risk well worth taking. 

Not really sure what Esco was thinking, but I've heard that HFM disease may lead to dementia. If I'm Esco, I'm looking to get rid of my current QB for an upgrade elsewhere, but he apparently thought a QB with a broken finger on a run-first team was worth trading from his already weak RB corps. If there is another trade or two coming, then I'll eat my words, but there's a reason this team has lived in the 14 spot most of the season.

Grades:
Esco: D-
Weissbard: A

Trade Grade 12
Marco receives D'Onta Foreman and JD McKissic
Weissbard receives DeAndre Hopkins and Jamison Crowder

All season I've been beating the drum about how RBs are far more valuable than WRs, so much so that position matters more than talent in most cases. This is not one of those cases. While Marco was insanely fucked at RB, there were ways to fix that without sacrificing Hopkins. Chase Edmonds to Levine for Jeff Wilson (or even just bidding for Jeff Wilson earlier on Friday) would have made sense, for example. If Marco thinks that Foreman is a legit top 20 RB for the rest of the season, then while I wildly disagree, this is somewhat understandable. Getting McKissic as Gibson insurance is smart as well, but again, it did not have to cost you Hopkins. Marco's only path to the playoffs is via the NiJo spot, so even a banged up Hopkins provides the type of upside that can bank a couple of 30 point weeks over the next month. I assume Foreman gets you 8-10 points per game at best. Enjoy that.

As for Weissbard, the fraud has officially been rescinded. Trading RBs for a top 10 WR when healthy, and still being left with CMC, CEH, and the Bears RBs is honestly impressive. Between Hopkins' injury, Amari getting COVID, and Alan not starting the Pats D, you still likely won't finish with the best record, but come playoff time you're up with AGD and Levine in a tier of your own.

Grades:
Marco: D+
Weissbard: A

Trade Grade 13
Ajay receives Adrian Peterson
Billy receives Hunter Renfrow

The top two teams by record are doing some easy business this week. Despite dropping a ton of FAAB on Peterson, he hasn't claimed the Titans backfield and is in a timeshare at best. Without having Foreman and/or McNichols, there's no reason for Billy to burn a roster spot on AP when he can get an upgrade for his receiving corps, which Renfrow shockingly provides. Typically giving up an RB with a hint of upside for WR outside the top 20 (30?) is not smart, but Renfrow immediately steps in as Billy's WR1, and if Billy loses either of his stud RBs, he's fucked anyway. He may have been able to do better than Renfrow for AP, which is the only nitpick here, but if Foreman does take over the backfield today, then Billy sold relatively high.

Ajay went from stacked at RB to desperate in less than a week, which just about sums up his season. It hurts to give up a found money flex option in Renfrow, but if AP does establish himself as an early down back for the rest of the season, this is a great move. I don't think that happens, but Ajay needs upside plays here so I can't fault him too much. If AP starts again for Ajay after this week, then it's either great or terrible news.

Grades:
Ajay: C+
Billy: B+

Mock Trade Mania

Mock Trade 1
Gutman receives Melvin Gordon and Antonio Brown
Nick receives Devontae Booker and Terry McLaurin
Starting off relatively slow, but this move gives Nick a pretty nice WR upgrade while also providing some much needed Saquon insurance. Gutman is in dire straits regardless, but with Aaron Jones out, he can at least pick up a starting RB.

Mock Trade 2
AGD receives Najee Harris and Adrian Peterson
Billy receives Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, and Chris Godwin
And boom goes the dynamite. Mock trades for Billy are always tough, but with his WR situation, getting Godwin might be worth the downgrade to the Atlanta RBs. The injury situation with Patterson and Davis will need to be monitored, but the potential for a blockbuster is there.

Mock Trade 3
Ajay receives Lamar Jackson, James Conner, and Noah Fant
Levine receives Tom Brady, Darrell Williams, and George Kittle
Ajay needs upside if he has any chance of claiming the NiJo slot, and going from Brady to Lamar provides just that. It would require him completely abandoning his ill-fated TE draft strategy, and would solidify the biggest weakness on Levine's roster, so getting James Conner's guaranteed workload in exchange for the confusion in KC evens things out.

Mock Trade 4
Alan receives Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook
Mejia receives Josh Allen, AJ Dillon, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Alan is for some reason trying to trade away his RBs, who are still insanely below average, so this is a bit of a course correction. Adding Dalvin gives Alan a clear RB1 for the first time all season, and while he downgrades at QB, he doesn't touch his WR duo. Mejia's team has been top heavy all year, so this adds Josh's upside and some depth at WR in exchange for the big drop at RB. At least he won't have to worry about Dalvin's injury/suspension situation.

Mock Trade 5
Barnard receives David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, and Jaylen Waddle
Weissbard receives Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Deebo Samuel
I went back and forth on this one between including Deebo or Tyreek, but figured Barnard would be too stubborn to break up his Chiefs. The Bears and Eagles have relatively boring running games, but the situation in Chicago has a clear starter/backup situation as opposed to the confusion in Philly. The cost for some certainty at RB is steep, but by making this deal, Barnard could make another move to upgrade at WR. As for Weissbard, the lack of a true WR1 is one of the few remaining holes on his ever-evolving roster. 

Mock Trade 6
Esco receives Miles Gaskin and A.J. Brown
Kumpf receives Kyler Murray and Keenan Allen
I'm still confused about Esco trading for Russ, but I have to assume it means that he intends on trading Kyler. My Tannehill/Cousins duo is functional but boring as hell (and now featuring Cam!), so taking a risk on Kyler's health is worth sacrificing my newly acquired RB depth and downgrading at WR, and it means Esco doesn't have to start Kenyan Drake and can ride Miami's easy schedule.

Mock Trade 7
Marco receives Davante Adams
Z receives Devonta Freeman, De'Andre Hopkins, and DK Metcalf
We end on a massive consolidation trade, as Marco takes a big swing for Davante, and sacrifices all of his depth in the process. Z fills his WR2 and Flex holes, while hoping that depth makes up for Davante's upside. Marco re-establishes his roster upside in the hopes of making a run at the NiJo spot.

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 
2. AGD (Last Week: 1st) 
3. Fraudbard (Last Week: 4th) 
4. Billy (Last Week: 6th) 
5. Kumpf (Last Week: 3rd) 
6. Ajay (Last Week: 8th) 
7. Nick (Last Week: 5th) 
8. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th) 
9. Mejia (Last Week: 7th) 
10. Marco (Last Week: 10th) 
11. Barnard (Last Week: 11th) 
12. Alan (Last Week: 12th) 
13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 
14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: Kumpf vs. Levine

The winner here is all but assured to win the division, while the loser joins the fight for Wild Card 2 and the NiJo spot. Lots of juicy storylines here, starting with the Hollywood/Gaskin trade last week, going through the contentious bid for the Miami D/ST (suck it Levine).

The matchup itself is going to be tight. Lamar and Hollywood vs. Latavius and Andrews will in all likelihood determine who wins, and given the way they played last week, I have no idea what to expect. We also have some Titans fun with Tannehill, AJB, and Geoff Swaim, and I assume that we will be the only two teams interested in the Miami/Jets game.

This will likely come down to Ekeler vs. Diontae on SNF, and unless I'm up 20 heading into the game, I don't like my odds. Call this reverse JuJu or call it admirable humility, but I'm going with the Power Rankings here.

Pick: Levine 
MotW Record: 4-6
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 9 Recap

Week 9 was the lowest scoring week in modern fantasy history. I don't know how predictive that will be moving forward, but the parity this year is unheard of. Weissbard could easily lose out, Billy lost King Henry, and even the Marco/Z/Ajay trio at the bottom of the standings are within striking distance of the NiJo spot. 

Not a lot of analysis this week because I'm traveling, but Mock Trade Mania is coming next week.

But first, the Playoff Picture:

1. Weissbard - Bye - Division Champion
2. Billy - Bye - Wild Card 1
3. AGD - Division Champion
4. Kumpf - Division Champion
5. Levine - Wild Card 2
6. Marco - NiJo Spot

There is a decent amount of space between Levine and the rest of the Wild Card contenders, but Barnard, Nick, and Zacherman are within 30 of NiJo Spot.

Trade Grade 9
Ajay receives Tom Brady
Marco receives Caron Wentz and Darren Waller

After the draft, Ajay trading Waller seemed inevitable. He was totally screwed at RB, had a wildly unnecessary luxury with multiple top three TEs, and Waller blew up Week 1. Since then, Kittle got hurt, Waller slowed down a bit, and Ajay somehow is relatively stacked at RB. Wentz was holding down the fort at QB, but Brady is an obvious upgrade and the downgrade at Flex is not too big as long as everyone stays healthy. 

For Marco, the question was if he wants to have uncertainty at QB or TE. Other than Weissbard, the self-proclaimed Tight End Whisperer, streaming QBs tends to be a lot easier than streaming TEs, even in this league. Wentz is certainly a downgrade from Brady, but given his easy schedule and the massive upgrade at TE, it makes a lot of sense for Marco.

Is this a true win-win? Marco's roster looks as good as it has all season, and Ajay has the upgrade at QB that could gain some ground in the NiJo race. Well done to both.

Grades:
Ajay: B+
Marco: A-

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
2. Levine (Last Week: 4th)
3. Kumpf (Last Week: 2nd)
4. Fraudbard (Last Week: 6th)
5. Nick (Last Week: 3rd)
6. Billy (Last Week: 8th)
7. Mejia (Last Week: 5th) 
8. Ajay (Last Week: 7th)
9. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)
10. Marco (Last Week: 11th)
11. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)
12. Alan (Last Week: 12th)
13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Fraudbard

A divisional, top six Power Ranking matchup that could very well determine who wins the Regular Season prize. Two weeks ago, I would have Billy coming in as the heavy favorite, but since then he lost Henry and Weissbard got CMC back. That makes this relatively even on paper, but the Week 10 matchups are weighted pretty heavily in one direction.

Outside of Herbert, Cooper, and the shockingly valuable Pat Freiermuth all of Weissbard's players have some rough matchups. CMC is matchup-proof when healthy, but he's going up against Cards D, so that's going to be a tough needle to thread for Weiss. Billy on the other hand gets a series of dream matchups for his key players, and I can see Carr, JTT, Najee, and the Bills D combing for 100 themselves. I've been on an absurdly rough stretch in the MotW predictions, but this one seems like a lock.

Pick: Billy 
MotW Record: 3-6
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 8 Recap

We're at an interesting point in the fantasy calendar. More than halfway through the regular season, still three weeks from the trade deadline, and the playoff picture is wide open. Every team other than Marco and Ajay are within one game of a top five playoff spot, and Marco is currently in the NiJo spot. That means that everyone should be on the lookout for trades, and that will be my focus for the next three posts. Next week I'm in NYC for school so it will be the briefest post of the season, but the week of 11/15 will be mock trade mania, and today I'll give everyone the strategy that I would take heading into the trade deadline.

But first, the Playoff Picture:

1. Weissbard - Bye - Division Champion
2. Billy - Bye - Wild Card 1
3. Kumpf - Division Champion
4. AGD - Division Champion
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Marco - NiJo Spot

Levine and Alan are within 20 points of the second Wild Card, and Zacherman is 7 back of Marco for the NiJo spot. 

Trade Grade 8
Marco receives Antonio Gibson, Devonta Freeman, and DK Metcalf
Weissbard receives David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, and Amari Cooper

I don't like trying to grade this one because it's really about what players you think will be better (which is typically a crapshoot) instead of a commentary on team construction (which is less of a crapshoot). So this one really comes down to ceiling vs. floor, and from my perspective, both teams are misreading their situations.

Weissbard's roster is certainly not a first place roster, but it would take a Barnardian collapse for him to miss the playoffs, with a bye more likely than not. That makes him a contender, and as such, he should be doing whatever he can to raise his team's ceiling. As frustrating as Gibson has been so far, when healthy he is an RB1 candidate, and you already have his backup anyway. At WR, DK has managed to produce even with Geno Smith, so assuming Russ does come back, he has week-winning potential. Instead Weiss gets a boring Bears backfield that has the potential to be a timeshare given how good Herbert has looked, and Amari Cooper, who's fine but does not have nearly the ceiling that DK does.

Marco, on the other hand, just needs to keep consistently scoring points. He would need to pass 4 teams to win the Division and 7 teams to get a Wild Card, so the NiJo spot is by far his best path to the playoffs. Instead of keeping the boring but consistent Bears backfield, he now inherits Gibson's injury headaches without even securing McKissic as insurance. DK over Cooper is an upgrade either way, but if for some reason Russ doesn't come back soon, there's a lot of risk there.

Overall, Marco got the better players, but I can't really call this a win for either team.

Grades:
Marco: C+
Weissbard: D+

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1st) 
Trade Strategy: Honestly this team is pretty stacked. Two top 10 RBs, three top 13 WRs, a top 5 TE, and then Dak, who's a top 5 QB when healthy. That doesn't even include Julio, who may be washed, but is far better than most teams' fourth WR (myself excluded). The only real strategy I can see here would be to trade Julio or Singletary for Mark Ingram in case Kamara goes down? 

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th) 
Trade Strategy: This is easy. I have four top 25 WRs, so trying to package 1-2 of them for an RB upgrade is the low hanging fruit. I could also use a QB upgrade, but I'm holding out hope that Taysom turns into Michael Vick.

3. Nick (Last Week: 8th) 
Trade Strategy: This is another low-key stacked roster without many weaknesses. Getting a handcuff for Saquon is certainly a top priority given his history, and beyond that, I can see trying to upgrade the WR2 spot by combining Lockett or AB with Melvin.

4. Levine (Last Week: 5th) 
Trade Strategy: Another easy one. Levine has five RBs that could start for most other teams, or at least act as flex options. However, he's stuck starting a ton of mediocrity at WR. An upgrade can be made there (or at TE) relatively painlessly.

5. Mejia (Last Week: 2nd) 
Trade Strategy: The team I can't quit. This starting lineup is still extremely solid, with the potential of improved performance, though Rodgers latest drama certainly doesn't help. Priority #1 should be getting Mattison for the inevitable Dalvin injury, but beyond that you just need to hope that no one gets hurt.

6. Fraudbard (Last Week: 9th) 
Trade Strategy: The fact that Weiss was able to ride out the CMC and Russ (and even Jeudy) injuries without falling out of first place is shocking and frankly unacceptable for the rest of the league. But here we are, and his squad is finally getting healthy. His only real trade asset is at QB, which should be able to net him a startable receiver opposite DK, but that still leaves holes at TE and Flex that keep him out of true contender status.

7. Ajay (Last Week: 12th) 
Trade Strategy: Big rise this week for an Ajay team that somehow has multiple starting RBs! Some of those are temporary situations, so combining someone like Mattison with a TE for a more stable RB might be a good move. But considering how the season started, just having a relatively solid roster is something to revel in for now.

8. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 
Trade Strategy: Hard to analyze Billy's roster until we see how the Titans RB situation shakes out, but the AP bid may have been huge. More likely, they split carries between AP and McNichols, and pass a lot more, which is a lose/lose. It's not really worth trading Taylor or Najee at this point, but giving up the Titans RBs for a WR upgrade might be in the cards.

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th) 
Trade Strategy: The Ridley situation really limits Z's trade options, but he's the first team that I think should be really aggressive. WR2, TE and Flex are the holes in this roster, so flipping Davante Adams for a WR downgrade and an upgrade at one of the other spots would help balance the roster and limit your exposure to an apparently contagious Packers team.

10. Barnard (Last Week: 4th) 
Trade Strategy: All year, WR has been your obvious spot to trade from. Fleecing Alan with Odell and Jakobi was one thing, but somehow you lost Ruggs and Michael Thomas for wildly different reasons on back to back days, and now you don't really have any depth at all. Your biggest trade chips now are probably the Chiefs, with a Tyreek for RB/WR duo looking like your best path toward a balanced roster.

11. Marco (Last Week: 10th)
Trade Strategy: What a sad season this has been. Runningback whack-a-mole has been fun to watch for me, but must be brutal on a weekly basis. Now that Mike Williams predictably fell back to earth, your WR depth is not nearly as great as it was, but there are still trade packages here. The Seattle or Chicago RBs plus a WR is not a bad trio to give an upgrade at either RB or WR, but I'm not sure if anyone wants to touch your kursed roster.

12. Alan (Last Week: 14th) 
Trade Strategy: We're now firmly in the Blow It Up section of the post. Alan has Josh Allen, who is one of the few QBs that may be capable of pulling in a starting RB in return (especially if package with an AJ Dillon type). Given Alan's previous trade results, I doubt we actually see a move here, but getting a 30-point scorer at QB could put some of our contenders over the top.

13. Gutman (Last Week: 11th) 
Trade Strategy: Probably the hardest team for me to come up with ideas for, primarily because pretty much the whole team has underproduced so you're selling low on everyone. Between Saquon's handcuff, Gronk's potential doubled with a weak TE position, and your core of Hurts/Jones/Harris/Terry, there's probably a move that can be made, but really you need everyone to start playing better. Ajay just had this happen, so it's not impossible.

14. Esco (Last Week: 13th) 
Trade Strategy: As everyone says, Esco and Alan have a lot in common, and that extends to their strategies. Kyler is banged up, so the window may have already closed, but his ceiling is also worth a ton in a trade. Beyond that, I don't really know what to tell you.

Matchup of the Week: Ajay vs. Levine

Everything coming up Ajay this week, as he tries to make a last-ditch effort to save his season. That includes trying to win a key divisional matchup against an up and down Levine team. No real bye issues here, which is refreshing, so we will get a good look at each of these squads as they try to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

Thursday Night Football is a fun way to start, with an inconsistent Wentz taking on Michael Carter, who looked like post-prime Marshall Faulk last week. If Levine is in the lead after tonight, then this thing is over. If not, then Ajay has a real chance. Lamar and Ekeler will put up points, but beyond that, the ceiling is low for Levine. Ajay has the Henderson/Eli/JJ/Lamb/Waller core, all with good matchups, and while he's currently starting Renfrow at Flex, Darrell Williams looks better to me now that Rodgers is out. I have kursed the hell out of this pick for the last few weeks, but I need Levine to lose and I'm still going with the underdog.

Pick: Ajay
MotW Record: 3-5
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 7 Recap

With the move to a 14-game Regular Season, we're officially at the halfway point for the first time ever. I want to start by looking at the Playoff Picture if the season ended today:

1. Billy - Division Leader - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1- Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Leader
4. Barnard - Division Leader
5. Alan - Wild Card 2
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

This list does not include some top point scorers in Marco (5th), Levine (6th), or Zacherman (7th), but does include Alan (8th) and Weissbard (9th). This is not unheard of, as those teams are separated by less than 10ppg. The bigger concern for Marco/Levine/Z is that they are are 17-30 points behind AGD right now, and I consider AGD to be the best of that group, so the gap should theoretically only increase. So if we're looking a straight playoff odds, I would actually give Esco and Mejia a better chance of making the playoffs as things stand now, despite their far inferior rosters, because either of them could win their division with another couple lucky breaks.

Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Alex Collins and Henry Ruggs
Weissbard receives Chuba Hubbard and Justin Jackson

Tradin' Dan strikes again! Since Draft Day, it's been obvious that Weissbard would need to make a move to get Chuba. CMC is too valuable, and too injury prone, so his handcuff was arguably the most valuable in the league (though not nearly as talented as guys like Mattison or Pollard) . On the flip side, Barnard has been trying to get Ruggs on his roster since he first saw his Madden speed score. On paper, this was a pretty even trade when talking pure value, and potentially even a win for Barnard.

This is not on paper. Barnard has a legitimate contending roster outside of his massive question mark at RB2. He is stacked at WR, and even has some reinforcements available with Michaels Thomas and Gallup potentially flex options if/when they get healthy. He should be spending all of his resources trying to fill that RB2 slot, which I thought he understood by executing a smart Miles Sanders trade with Alan. Instead, he traded away Chuba, who is a no-doubt starter when CMC is hurt (which he...is) for Collins, a timeshare RB for a currently terrible offense who's share of the time is only going to shrink, and Ruggs, who theoretically should never see his starting lineup. If Barnard thinks Collins is an every week starter, then while I disagree, there is at least some logic there. If Ruggs played any part in his accepting this trade, then I question how I ever had him 1st in the Power Rankings.

Weissbard did a good bit of business, locking down the Carolina and Washington backfields. Not flashy, and there are still massive concerns with this roster, but at 6-1 he can afford to play it safe and hope to fill his WR and TE holes with streaming and potentially a QB trade.

Also Barnard now has to change his team name.

Grades:
Barnard: C
Weissbard: B+ 

Week 7 Power Rankings

We still have a few weeks before the Trade Deadline, so rather than go right to the mock trades this week, I'm going to take the easy way out and break the league into tiers based solely on roster quality now and moving forward. Yes, the Power Rankings do this somewhat on their own, but I'm still catching up from class last weekend and this saves me time. In terms of trades, these tiers can be considered Buyers, Sellers, and TBD.

Tier 1 - The Current Contenders
1. AGD (Last Week: 4th)
2. Mejia (Last Week: 2nd)
3. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 
4. Barnard (Last Week: 1st) 
5. Levine (Last Week: 5th) 
6. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th) 

Some of these are obvious. Billy's team looks very legit right now, Barnard's ceiling is high as long as Mahomes is healthy and apparently not facing the Titans, and AGD and me are hovering around .500 despite a Points Scored performance that should lead to better results down the road. The "hot takes" here are the inclusion of Levine and mostly Mejia, and the absence of Weissbard. I'll get into Fraudbard in the section below, but I am willing to guarantee that either Levine or Mejia makes the playoffs. 

Levine's deep team can compete in any given week, but the key to his future prospects remains his tradeability. As anyone who has tried to negotiate a trade with Billy can attest, when you have too many studs, it's kind of hard to make a fair trade. Levine has a TON of mediocre yet startable players that can lead to several iterations of workable trades. I know it's never fun to negotiate with Levine, as he continually runs his mouth on the listserve and in the GroupMe, but if he can swing a power move in the next two weeks, he will move up this list fast.

As for Mejia, he simply has above average talent everywhere but WR2 and Flex, and he's really the only team that can say that. If you're going to be weak anywhere, streaming your WR2 and Flex is the place you'd want to be. And while his co-manager may be actively damaging their prospects, I still have a weird amount of faith in this Mejia roster.

Tier 2 - Hanging Around
7. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th) 
8. Nick (Last Week: 9th) 
9. Weissbard (Last Week: 7th) 
10. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

Lots going on in this tier. You have the defending champ who is currently tied for the best record in the league, as well as a perpetually snakebitten NiJo team. Of the four,  Z is definitely the closest to contention. His record is somehow second from the bottom, but he's got an above average roster and room to improve as long as Davante doesn't give the whole team COVID. Marco was my preseason pick, but he seems to have been #Kursed from the start, with a slew of RB injuries and WFT-related Karma continually biting him in the ass.

As for Weissbard, I mean how is this team 6-1? He lost CMC, he lost Russ (which hugely impacted DK), he's been dealing with a diminished Gibson, and even Dawson Knox, his previous best pickup, is now hurt. I don't think this team deserves its record in its current state, however, those wins are banked and there is a path to actual contention. If everyone gets healthy, I'd put them at the bottom of the tier above. That's obviously not guaranteed, and given the Russ timeline, there may need to be a trade decision made before he returns. I'm saving any official mock trades for another week, but Russ/Gibson/McKissic for Najee Harris would be a pretty fun challenge trade between our 6-1 teams.

Tier 3 - Blow It Up
11. Gutman (Last Week: 11th) 
12. Ajay (Last Week: 10th) 
13. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 
14. Alan (Last Week: 12th) 

In some ways, these teams are the most fun. Esco and Alan are actually above .500 right now, but that is fool's gold when you look at their points scored, points against, and most importantly, their rosters. Alan has a chance to rebound if Kareem Hunt comes back as the RB1 in Cleveland, but as it stands now, he has only three healthy players that would start on most teams. Esco's squad has rallied out of the basement thanks to the continued excellence of Kyler, the emergence of D'Andre Swift, RB1, and a shrewd Ricky Seals-Jones pickup. His ceiling is still probably the lowest in the league, but if Kyler stays healthy he's both the most terrifying player to face in the league, as well as the most intriguing trade asset out there.

Gutman and Ajay have equally poor teams, and they're a lot less fun. I still don't think Gutman's roster is bad (and he was a borderline Hanging Around team), but they just have not lived up to expectations. If pretty much everyone on the roster only performs at 60-75% of what they're capable of, it's easy to have a lost season. And as for Ajay, the dual TE experiment predictably crashed and burned, but he's done a decent job of recovering. At 1-6, he doesn't really have a path to the playoffs, but we'll always have the Eli Mitchell bid.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Kumpf

I hate putting myself in MotW, especially when I don't have confidence in my team, and especially when half my starting lineup (aka the Ravens) is on bye, but this was the obvious choice. Billy is down a QB, but Matty Ice has looked just as good, if not better, than Carr the last couple of weeks. 

This matchup will likely be determined by potential blowouts. Will the Rams keep feeding Kupp if they're up 30 at half over Houston? Will Corey Davis go off with Mike "Walter" White or Flacco throwing him the ball on every down? Is starting multiple Bengals RBs a new low for me?

At full strength, I think our teams are pretty even on paper. But between the Ravens being on bye, and the matchups in general, I don't think I can hang this week.

Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 3-4
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 6 Recap

Another class week for me means pared down rankings once again. 

Last week, three of the bottom four teams in the rankings won, yet another sign that this is the year of parity (and clearly not that these rankings are flawed in any way). That leaves 11/14 teams between 4-2 and 2-4, which is slightly more than average, but of the outlier teams, only Billy truly deserves it. Weissbard is 9th in scoring, so while I generally like his roster, he's allowed over 7ppg less than any other team and over 22ppg more than Gutman. That means that on average, Gutman faces an opposing roster + Matt Stafford compared to what Weissbard faces. On the other side, Ajay may not be a top squad, but he's scored only 12 points less than Weissbard on the season, yet sits 4 games worse in the standings. This should all somewhat even out over the next 8 regular season weeks, but those wins (and losses) are banked.

Side Note: Of course Weissbard gets to face Alan this week, with the Bills on bye, Hunt on IR, Baker injured meaning Odell isn't startable, and something called Dwayne Washington now on the roster thanks to an egregious $25 bid. Miles Sanders looks pretty good right now doesn't he?

Before jumping into the rankings, I do want to look at the playoff picture if the season ended today:

1. Billy - Division Leader - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1- Bye
3. Barnard - Division Leader
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Mejia - Division Leader
6. Marco - NiJo Spot

That currently leaves Levine (4th) and me (5th) as top five scoring teams that would not make the playoffs. It's still a long season, but the race for the NiJo spot might be more entertaining than the race for the Byes.

Trade Grade 6
Mejia receives Demetric Felton
Weissbard receives Tua Tagovailoa

It took six weeks but we finally get the Weissbard QB trade we all expec...huh? Weissbard trading for a QB? Didn't see that coming two weeks ago. But I guess with the Russ injury, the Herbert bye, and the available QBs on the wire, trading some RB depth was the route he went. Given his 5-1 record, I would probably value Felton's lottery ticket value over a one-week slight QB upgrade over the waiver options, but if you were going to drop Felton for a QB anyway, Tua has the best matchup.

On Mejia's side, this was a good bit of business in the opposite direction, giving up a bye-week QB for an RB lotto ticket. Nothing too exciting yet, but if D'Ernest goes to the hospital, it will be time for Demetric system.

Grades:
Mejia: B+
Weissbard: B-

On to the rankings and MotW, and starting next week we get into Trade Szn.

Week 6 Power Rankings

1. Barnard (Last Week: 4th) 

2. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

3. Billy (Last Week: 6th)

4. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)

5. Levine (Last Week: 3rd)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 7th)

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

8. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)

9. Nick (Last Week: 8th)

10. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

11. Gutman (Last Week: 12th)

12. Alan (Last Week: 13th)

13. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Billy

Some massive shake-ups in the rankings this week (the rise of Mejia, the fall of Weissbard and Marco), but nothing as surprising as Barnard topping the list for the first time ever. That's what happens when CMC goes on IR and Alan gift wraps another RB without getting a starting WR in return. Billy, on the other hand, needs no help at RB, but will set a record for trade offers received as the rest of the league desperately tries to trade away 3 WRs for one of his stud backs.

This matchup could loom large in the race for a Bye, and Billy gets hit the hardest with Najee and his Bills all unavailable this week. A couple of games will determine this matchup. The highlight will absolutely be Chiefs/Titans on Sunday afternoon, where Mahomes, Tyreek, and Henry should combine for over 100 points. But Colts/49ers on SNF is also important, because if Billy can get big days out of JTT, Hines, and Hilton, and Deebo is held in check, he has a chance to pull the upset.

That scenario puts a lot of faith in Carson Wentz, and Barnard has a couple of Panthers going up against the Giants, so I'm sticking with the favorite here. Woof.

Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 3-3
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 5 Recap

Last week I said that there were no good teams, and only one bad one. Esco somehow exceeded those expectations by losing Clyde and Kenny, and the rest of the league was all over the place. Even if there are no good teams, there are players that blow up in a given week, and Week 5 was one of the biggest boom/bust weeks in recent memory. We had 10 players break 30, double the next highest week so far, and 16 players over 25. Teams like Alan (3 players at 5 or less), Mejia (3 players at 6.3 or less), Billy (3 players at 7.24 or less, including his QB), and Levine (3 players at 6.3 or less) all won despite less than stellar team performances. I'm of the opinion that the best indicator of future performance is limiting weaknesses, but I also don't have a chef's coat and sit at 2-3 with minimal top-end talent this year. Regardless, this week we're going to take a look at each team's Achilles heels, both obvious and underrated.

But first, a trade!

Trade Grade 4
Alan receives Odell Beckham Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots D/ST
Barnard receives Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Panthers D/ST

The theme of this season has been that Runningback is a complete wasteland and WRs are a dime a dozen. I thought Alan understood this when he traded DK for Kareem Hunt. Apparently he did not, as this trade is nothing less than malpractice. 

Before the trade, Barnard had a glut of WRs but no real way to turn them into a starting RB unless he included Reek or maaaybe Deebo. Enter Alan, who thinks getting two flex options is worth giving up his primary RB depth. On a weekly basis, I can easily see either Odell or Jakobi outscoring Sanders, but 1) that's not guaranteed and 2) it requires Alan to pick the right one. I also think that if Alan was going to trade away one of his RBs, he should have aimed for Sutton or looked toward one of the many other RB-needy teams for a better option.

As for Barnard, he gave up players he would never need to start to upgrade his biggest weakness. Can't really ask for much better than that, and now he can look to trade away Chuba or DJ along with one of his WRs and get even more startable talent. As it stands now, I still don't see Barnard as the favorite (this is still Miles Sanders we're talking about), but if he's able to make one more consolidation trade, or if Michael Thomas comes back as a WR1, then the 2021 could easily be the Barndogs year.

Grades:
Alan Grade: D
Barnard Grade: A-

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd)
Obvious Weakness: Wide receiver. DK has the talent, but now he doesn't have the QB, and beyond that things are bleak. Between Ruggs and Waddle, there is the chance for a breakout, but very little reliability. The problem with having a QB-WR connection is that when one goes down, they both are affected.
Underrated Weakness: Lack of trade options. The Russ injury is also killer because it removes the only real chance of a trade. Someone like Billy could look at buying low on an injured Russ, but the return would be nowhere near what is was a week ago.

2. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
Obvious Weakness: Lineup Management. This team has no real holes, and has more startable players at RB/WR than any other team in the league. But beyond Kamara, there is a decision to be made at every position, and so far they have cost themselves multiple wins by making the wrong ones.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. Godwin and Chase are easily starting options, but in crowded offenses, so they have higher dud potential than it might look. Pittman has been fine, but relies way more on Carson Wentz than I'm comfortable with.

3. Levine (Last Week: 4th)
Obvious Weakness: Monday Night Football. He lost two wins on MNF in heartbreaking fashion to start the year, and while the last two weeks have shown signs of life, if I'm Levine I'm scared anytime I see my opponent with a player left on Mondays.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. DJ Moore has been hot and cold, and that's the highlight here. Even if Fields improves over the course of the season, I don't see ARob living up to his draft price, and as expected teams have started covering Brandin Cooks. There are a few logical trade candidates here, but I can't see this team winning the Stevens Bowl without an upgrade at WR.

4. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)
Obvious Weakness: Runningback. Even though I loved the trade for Barnard, it was more about what he gave up than what he got. Miles Sanders isn't the answer by any means, but he's an unquestionable upgrade over the rest of the garbage Barnard has been starting this year. Lack of handcuffs and upside here make this the clear biggest concern for a contender this year.
Underrated Weakness: Reliance on the Chiefs. They're still the #1 rated offense this year, but things have obviously not been as lights out as in previous years. If teams have started to figure out how to contain Tyreek, the ceiling here is more limited and the lack of talent at RB becomes more glaring.

5. Marco (Last Week: 6th)
Obvious Weakness: Tight End/Defense. This roster is arguably the most stacked in the league outside of the two afterthought positions. Streaming at TE and Defense isn't the end of the world, but a trade to upgrade TE specifically is likely worth it. Wasting a bench spot on Washington (DST29 on the season) is still a joke, but at least they're not starting this week?
Underrated Weakness: Health. While he has only lost David Montgomery and Logan Thomas for extended time so far, it seems like half of Marco's roster is Questionable every week, and/or leaves the game with injury. Some of that is expected, but that makes it no less frustrating. He's also relying on a geriatric QB, but health does not appear to be a concern for immortals.

6. Billy (Last Week: 8th)
Obvious Weakness: Everything other than RB. He went as big as usual on the position, and got three of them this time (plus two handcuffs!), but Billy is squarely below average or worse at every other position.
Underrated Weakness: Difficulty to trade with. I'm not even referring to his work schedule, which doesn't appear to involve as much time on ESPN as most of us, but more that his roster construction makes trades difficult. While he has a massive strength where the rest of the league has a weakness, he also has massive weaknesses where the rest of the league has a strength. We discussed a trade surrounding Cooper Kupp and JTT, but couldn't find a way to make it work. I suspect this wasn't the only failed trade discussion Billy has had in the last few weeks.

7. Kumpf (Last Week: 2nd
Obvious Weakness: No studs. This was by design, but without spending $50+ on any one player, I'm left with a bunch of slightly above average or worse starters. Yes, Kupp and Andrews have exploded in a given week, but I don't have the reliability that pretty much everyone else has.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Tannehill has been a boring but stable QB1 in fantasy since taking over for the Titans, but he currently sits at QB21 for the year heading into a game against Buffalo's defense. Injuries have hurt his receiving corps, but the loss of Arthur Smith to Atlanta might be the real root cause.

8. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Both Burrow and Heincke have shown flashes this year, but Nick goes into pretty much every matchup with a 5-point disadvantage at the highest scoring position.
Underrated Weakness: Instability. He's got a bunch of boom/bust players, but the busts have far outweighed the booms so far this year. That has only affected his starting lineup once (4/5 weeks over 98 points), but prevents this from being a top 5 team.

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of depth. As I said when he traded away CEH (ironically now injured), but one injury to Z's starting lineup forces an uncomfortable reliance on Houston RBs. Two weeks later, Mark Ingram come on down!
Underrated Weakness: RB job security. Both Zeke and JRob have looked great the last couple of weeks and sit as top 10 RBs on the season, but through two weeks they were both at risk of losing a good chunk of their jobs. That may have been an early season fluke, but I would still be surprised if they both finish in the top 10.

10. Ajay (Last Week: 11th)
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Gross.
Underrated Weakness: Tight End?!? Kittle got hurt roughly 15 minutes after I brought up the possibility two weeks ago, and while Waller is missing practice primarily due to rest, he has yet to break 5 receptions since his Week 1 explosion. Ajay's TE situation is still better than the majority of the league, but he has to use a ton of roster spots on the TE and QB positions, hurting his flexibility elsewhere.

11. Mejia (Last Week: 9th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone outside the top 3. Your weakness is exactly the opposite of your strength. This is an Esco-level roster once you remove Rodgers, Cook, and Kelce.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Rodgers is only QB 15, yet he's still one of your only good players. If he stays at 15 or worse, you could compete with Esco for Shot Spot.

12. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of high end talent. Gutman's roster is a slightly lesser version of mine, which is appropriate as we match up this week. I'm sure he will break 120 against me, but without a true game changer, and a decently low floor, it's hard to get excited here.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. This one may have an expiration date if Devonta goes off tonight, but only Terry is currently in the top 30 at WR on this roster which is wild given all the draft money spent on the position. Aiyuk is up there with most disappointing picks of the season.

13. Alan (Last Week: 12th)
Obvious Weakness: Trading skills.. Before the trade with Barnard, I would have had Alan top 10. But not only did he hurt his roster prospects, but I also don't have faith in his ability to make trades moving forward. 
Underrated Weakness: Runningback. Hunt and Moss have been serviceable, but Hunt is on the wrong side of a timeshare and Moss is technically the backup RB on his team as well after Josh.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone besides Kyler and Keenan.
Underrated Weakness: Complete lack of assets to trade besides Kyler and Keenan.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Weissbard

No divisional matchups at all this week, but we do have 1 vs. 2 in the Power Rankings! Weiss could be on his way to a third title in four years, while AGD may have to look at the NiJo spot if they fall to 2-4.

Byes are a factor for the first time this year, and that hurts AGD more than most, with Kamara and his Falcons RBs all out of commission. Even with that handicap, AGD has some pretty sweet defenses to face this week other than for Dak, so I expect this to be closer than it looks based on names alone. Weissbard looks to be welcoming CMC back right as he loses Russ, so we'll see how health that hamstring looks. Defenses are much more difficult on the Weiss side across the board, so I expect this to come down to a classic showdown of Knox vs. Singletary on MNF. 

Weissbard may have grown to 5'7" this week, but I'm pretty confident that if you stack Belfer and Reap on top of each other, they break 6 feet. I'm sticking with the duo for one more week.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 3-2
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 4 Recap

It's the Era of Parity in FALAFEL, as for the first time ever, we have no 4-0 teams and no 0-4 teams. That means that the entire league is within 2 games of itself, and for all intents and purposes, the season has not started yet. 

That's not to say that we haven't learned things about each team. Over the next two weeks, I'll take shallow dive on each team's strengths and weaknesses, both the obvious and the below-the-radar. We'll start this week with strengths, and assume I remember to follow up next week with weaknesses.

Something to keep in mind this week (though I'm sure it will be ignored) is that the gap between teams 1-8 is very small in my mind, as is the gap between teams 9-13 (sorry Esco).

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
Obvious Strength: RB depth. Devin Singletary is probably the 5th best RB on this roster and would be in the starting rotation for at least 10 other teams.
Underrated Strength: Tight End. I've said it before, but I fully expect Hock to finish top 3 at the position. Outside of a weird game against the Ravens, he's had at least 8 targets every game.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 13th)
Obvious Strength: Wide receiver. Kupp's random brilliance aside, Diontae and Hollywood have been top 25 so far this season and that's not even including AJB, who's primed for a breakout if he ever gets healthy.
Underrated Strength: Resilience. Despite my jokes last week, I somehow did lose another starter in Mixon. Losing a starter per week should make my roster look worse than Esco's yet I'm 1 of 4 teams to break 90 every week.

3. Weissbard (Last Week: 6th)
Obvious Strength: QB. Weiss went back to the well with his 2QB strategy, which worked last year but is still risky as it relies on both options to play well, and for someone to be willing to trade for them. So far so good on performance, but given how deep the position is, I can't see a top 40 RB or top 25 WR coming his way in exchange for Herbert.
Underrated Strength: TE streaming. I wasn't a fan of unnecessarily giving up Goedert in his trade with Alan, but he bounced back strong with a nice Hooper week followed by Dawson Knox improbably becoming a top 10 option.

4. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)
Obvious Strength: Depth. His bench is full of high-upside handcuffs and potential starters for other teams. In a 14-game regular season that figures to be a battle of attrition, Levine is positioned to weather the storm and capitalize via trade.
Underrated Strength: James Conner. Someone who looked like a timeshare at best has assumed goalline duties in the desert. Assuming that Kliff doesn't want Kyler to take any unnecessary hits, Conner should easily break 10 TDs this season.

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 10th)
Obvious Strength: Fab Five. I don't know that anyone can match up with Stafford, Zeke, JRob, Davante, and Ridley when they're running on all cylinders. We have yet to see that, but Ridley is primed for a big week in London and the rest have sweet matchups.
Underrated Strength: Non-zero RBs. We've seen a couple of teams (Barnard, Weissbard) have truly abysmal weeks at RB, where 5 points would be an absolute dream. Z's bench has non-sexy options like Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, and Philip Lindsay who would be no one's first choice, but will avoid a goose egg if things really hit the fan.

6. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)
Obvious Strength: Wide Receiver. Nuk and Amari have yet to really find their stride due to injuries, and Higgins has been banged up since Week 1, but the Mike Williams breakout gives you four above average options or better when they're all healthy. Just need to get there.
Underrated Strength: Tampa's play-calling. Bruce Arians hates running the ball, which means a geriatric QB is going to throw, throw, and keep throwing. Even in a monsoon where the opposing coach knows his weaknesses, Tom broke 10 points. I can't see him going under 20 again.

7. Nick (Last Week: 7th)
Obvious Strength: Core Four. You may not have the fifth member that Z does, but Chubb, Saquon, Lockett, and Diggs look primed to carry you if they can stay healthy. I've actually been impressed with the way that Jason Garrett has used Saquon, and Diggs has a 2-TD day coming if any of Buffalo's opponents can stay within 20, so your floor is pretty high barring injury.
Underrated Strength: Upside. Between Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Josh Gordon, and even Joe Burrow, there is a lot of untapped potential here. It may stay untapped until next year, but if one of those guys breaks out, you have a bargain basement starter.

8. Billy (Last Week: 4th)
Obvious Strength: RB. Duh.
Underrated Strength: QB. Carr has cooled off, but this has not been a bad year to live the streaming QB life. It will backfire in some weeks, but given how fucked the rest of the league is at RB, it's not the worst place to be.

9. Mejia (Last Week: 5th)
Obvious Strength: Three Musketeers. Rodgers, Dalvin, and Kelce is a top notch trio, though Dalvin's injury woes seem like they could linger throughout the season.
Underrated Strength: Fat Lenny. If he is going to keep playing a role in the passing game, he's actually startable.

10. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
Obvious Strength: Mahomes and Tyreek. Duh.
Underrated Strength: WR depth. Reek and shockingly Deebo have been studs, but if anyone is actually primed to trade WR for RB, it's Barnard. He will likely have to part with one of his top 2 to get a starting RB, but that still leaves him with Odell, Sutton, Jakobi, eventually Gallup, and maybe even Michael Thomas. We can all expect to see "Michael Thomas for RB1" trade offers next week, but realistically, Deebo for RB2 is very doable.

11. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
Obvious Strength: Tight End. Duh.
Underrated Strength: RB roulette. Ajay's RB situation is not ideal by any means, but he's not totally fucked. He just needs the right players to get hurt at the right times. That has already worked out with Mattison, and I can see Darrel Williams getting some starts in KC. RoJo is not included in this strength.

12. Alan (Last Week: 11th)
Obvious Strength: Josh Allen. After a slow start, he looks every part the top tier QB he was last year.
Underrated Strength: Improbably RB? Alan was screwed at RB just two weeks ago, but the Kareem Hunt trade and Zach Moss's emergence has actually left him in relatively decent shape. If he really wants to make moves, combining two of his three RBs for an upgrade would a ballsy trade. Kareem and Sanders for Dalvin?

13. Gutman (Last Week: 12th)
Obvious Strength: Competency. While there is minimal upside on this roster, it's competent across the board. Injuries and underperformance have hurt so far, but at 2-2, I can still see a playoff push if the cards break right here.
Underrated Strength: Eagles. If that playoff push doesn't happen, at least the Eagles don't appear to fold even when they're down big. Garbage time Jalen to Devonta points count the same as if the game is close.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Obvious Strength: Kyler. The MVP frontrunner with a rushing baseline that makes him the safest start in the league. I still think he's overrated as an NFL QB, but in fantasy that doesn't matter.
Underrated Strength: Third down backups? I'm struggling here, but as it stands Esco doesn't even really have handcuff RBs on his bench. He does have a few 3rd down backs that don't start between Drake, Evans, and Snell, so I guess that's good for half PPR?

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Marco

Holy divisional matchups! After a dry spell to start the year, we have four of them this week, any of which would make a good MotW candidate given how tight the standings are. But while no team can win the league this early, it is possible to create a massive hole to dig out of, and that's what Marco's potentially looking at.

It's also a juicy matchup based on roster construction as we have cross-team matchups of Brady and Amari vs. Dak and Godwin. I think that's probably a wash overall, and while Marco gets a slight WR edge with a healthy Nuk, the rest of the matchup is all AGD. Kamara vs. Washington D will be one-sided enough that Marco should finally give up on his home town squad, and this one will be decided long before Pittman gets to close things out on MNF.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 3-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4