Gambling Corner - Week of 12/31

NFL Bets
Colts (+1) at Texans - Win
Seahawks (+2) at Cowboys - Push
Chargers (+3) at Ravens - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Eagles - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-1-1
2018 Record: 45-33-6 (+5.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Prop Bets Check-In
Wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Losses
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Jimmy G most passing yards
Jay Ajayi most rushing yards
Antonio Brown most receiving yards
Falcons to win Super Bowl
Panthers to win NFC
Eagles to win NFC East
Push
Patriots over 11 wins
Still In Play
Texans to win Super Bowl
Chiefs to win Super Bowl
Bears to win NFC

Overall win total projections went 18-12-2, with my bets going 11-2-1.

NCAA Football Bets
Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (+6) vs. Cincinnati - Win
Sun Bowl: Stanford (-5) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Redbox Bowl: Michigan State (+2) vs. Oregon - Win
Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State (+9) vs. Missouri - Win
Holiday Bowl: Utah (-7) vs. Northwestern - Loss
Gator Bowl: NC State (+7) vs. Texas A&M - Loss
Outback Bowl: Iowa (+7) vs. Mississippi State - Win
Citrus Bowl: Penn State (-6) vs. Kentucky - Loss
Fiesta Bowl: Central Florida (+8) vs. LSU - Push
Rose Bowl: Washington (+7) vs. Ohio State - Win
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (-12) vs. Texas - Loss
Last Week: 6-5
Bowl Record: 21-17-1
2018 Record: 67-67-3 (-9.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pacers (-11.5) vs. Hawks - Loss
Rockets (-4.5) vs. Grizzlies - Win
Kings (+3) vs. Blazers - Loss
Bulls (+3) vs. Magic - Loss
Bucks (-13.5) vs. Hawks - Win
Thunder (+2.5) at Blazers - Win
Raptors (+6) at Bucks - Win
Suns (+4) vs. Hornets - Loss
Last Week: 3-3
2018-19 Record: 48-41 (-2.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Creighton (+4) at Providence - Win
Virginia Tech (-9.5) vs. Notre Dame - Win
Nebraska (+2) at Maryland - Push
Seton Hall (+5) at Xavier - Win
Texas Tech (-4.5) at West Virginia - Loss
Michigan State (-11.5) vs. Northwestern - Win
Iowa State (-4) at Oklahoma State - Win
Kansas State (-2) vs. Texas - Loss
Nevada (-7.5) vs. Utah State - Win
Iowa (+10) at Purdue - Loss
NC State (-2) at Miami - Win
Michigan (-10) vs. Penn State - Win
Creighton (+6.5) at Butler - Loss
Michigan State (-2) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (-3.5) at Rutgers - Win
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Oklahoma State - Push
Virginia (-7) vs. Florida State - Win
TCU (-7.5) vs Baylor - Loss
Kansas (+2) at Iowa State - Loss
Colorado (+7.5) at Arizona State - Loss
Duke (-15.5) vs. Clemson - Win
Nebraska (-3.5) at Iowa - Loss
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Penn State - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018-19 Record: 46-33-4 (+4.35 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+0.5) at Huddersfield - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 27-21-6 (+0.61 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Bournemouth (+165) vs. Watford - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 11-12 (+1.65 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Stevens Bowl Recap/Offseason Preview

Congrats to Fireball Dan on bringing home his first Chef's Coat and preventing a repeat for Levine. It was a huge oversight on my part to not hype this up as a potential revenge match after Weissbard maliciously dumped a beer on Levine's laptop during the draft.

Weissbard's win was even more impressive after he lost Gurley and had no auction money left for C.J. Anderson after blowing it all on Robby Anderson. The Anderson debacle ended up working out in his favor, as Robby tore up and Levine couldn't wait for the Gurley decision to decide on starting his other RBs. The end result was close as expected, but the journey there was anything but conventional.

On a side note, Zacherman and I can take solace in the fact that we would have lost the Stevens Bowl to Weissbard and Levine respectively, so the heartbreak of the semi-finals doesn't hurt quite so much. Additionally, I think we need some league rule to cover what happens when the Stevens Bowl champ has Robert Woods on their team. My initial idea is that they need to share a bed with Rob Woods at the next draft, but I'm open to other ideas.

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 18-9

As we know, there is no real offseason in this league, so here is the tentative schedule for the next few months:
- January: Season recap posts (pending my available free time)
- February: Winter Meetings
- March: Draft Location Madness
- June: Rivalry Week
- July: Draft Weekend Room Draft

All dates subject to change at my discretion.

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/24

NFL Bets
Ravens (-6) vs. Browns - Loss
Chiefs (-13) vs. Raiders - Win
Rams (-10) vs. 49ers - Win
Titans (+4) vs. Colts - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 43-32-5 (+4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Independence Bowl: Duke (+4) vs. Temple - Win
Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin (+3) vs. Miami - Win
Texas Bowl: Baylor (+4) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Music City Bowl: Auburn (-3) vs. Purdue - Win
Camping World Bowl: West Virginia (+2) vs. Syracuse - Loss
Alamo Bowl: Washington State (-3) vs. Iowa State - Loss
Peach Bowl: Michigan (-6) vs. Florida - Loss
Belk Bowl: Virginia (+6) vs. South Carolina - Win
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State (-1) vs. Nevada - Loss
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame (+13) vs. Clemson - Loss
Orange Bowl: Oklahoma (+14) vs. Alabama - Win
Last Week: 5-6
Bowl Record: 16-12
2018 Record: 62-62-2 (-8.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets

Last Week: 3-3
2018-19 Record: 44-37 (-1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets

Last Week: 4-2
2018-19 Record: 33-25-2 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (+0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 0-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 26-21-6 (-0.16 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Southampton (+130) vs. West Ham - Loss
Fulham (+110) vs. Huddersfield - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 11-11 (+2.65 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Stevens Bowl Preview

Not gonna lie, that one hurt. After getting the benefit of Saquon's first real dud of the season and getting a big day from my Mack attack, all I needed was a 25th percentile performance from Cam to win my first playoff game and make the Stevens Bowl. Instead I got a 5th percentile performance, and I wasted likely the best team I'll have in the next decade.

Things were even worse for Zacherman, who had the most electric QB/WR combination since Brady and Moss in 2007, and still couldn't make the Stevens Bowl.

This leaves us Weissbard vs. Levine.

Weissbard is trying to complete the classic worst-to-first storyline in the vein of the 2018 Bears, 2017 Jaguars, and 2001 Rams. Some of those teams fell short, but they were all feel-good stories in the moment.

Levine is the Patriots personified. Starting the year below the radar, he slowly but surely made his way into the playoffs, and is poised to be our first repeat champion. If he wins again, we may need to add an apostrophe to our title game and start calling it Steven's Bowl.

While Zacherman and I may go down as the two best teams to not even make the finals, we still have two very worthy contenders facing off through Christmas Eve.

Weissbard! Levine! Saquon! Dakota! It's The Stevens Bowl!

(Note that while we are certainly not the tallest league as a whole, this is the first time where the annual Stevens Bowl Elf Yourself video isn't as funny as it should be. Z and I would have been waaaay more enjoyable and you all know it. I swear I'm not bitter.)

Stevens Bowl Preview

3. Weissbard vs. 4. Levine

Quarterback
The Dak roller coaster is due for a peak based on its every other week pace for the last couple months. On cue, he gets to face a terrible Tampa defense, at home, with a lot to prove. I see a big day coming for the Cowboys in general, so the only question is whether Dak or Zeke benefits more. That question doesn't exist for DeShaun, who is the engine that is driving Houston towards a potential bye. The Eagles D has been terrible all year, and while they had a resurgence last week, they still let up a ton of points. Both of these guys are easy top ten plays this week, but it's too close to call for me.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks
Weissbard's dynamic duo get some pretty easy matchups, which as always will be the primary focus of his week. Levine has a much more complicated situation. Mixon and Coleman led him to the Stevens Bowl, but McGuire and Jamaal are above average plays this week too. If Levine's three guys can outscore Weissbard's two, this should be a wrap. I don't think it comes to that, but this isn't as much in Weissbard's favor as it usually is.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This is weirdly a mirror image of the RB situation. Levine has the studs this time, but Weissbard's depth and flex option could make it interesting. The major wild card here is if Aaron Rodgers isn't himself, which would pretty much tank Levine's chances.
Slight Edge: Levine

Tight End
Vance McDonald was a huge part of getting Levine to the Stevens Bowl. I don't think history repeats itself, and I really like Cook's matchup.
Edge: Weissbard

D/ST
Weissbard has a clear matchup advantage here, with a solid Cowboys D getting a turnover-prone Bucs team at home. Levine has the more talented option in Baltimore, but they travel to LA to play an explosive Chargers offense. He also has the Eagles as a potential Deshaun counterpoint as an option. Whoever he goes with will have a lower ceiling than Dallas.
Edge: Weissbard

Pick
This is super close, and should make for an entertaining Stevens Bowl. The only "clear" advantages are both to Weissbard, but also are at the fickle positions of tight end and defense. I have a weird feeling that the Rams will continue to struggle against Arizona, enough to crack the door open for Levine, but if Rodgers is limited and Adams is not effective, I can't confidently pick my rival. When it's this close, I'll go with Gurley, Barkley, and the immortal Jared Cook getting last licks.
Pick: Weissbard

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 17-9

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/17

NFL Bets
Bengals (+9) at Browns - Win
Jaguars (+5) at Dolphins - Win
Bears (-4) at 49ers - Win
Saints (-6) vs. Steelers - Loss
Broncos (-2) at Raiders - Loss
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 41-30-5 (+4.96 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Boca Raton Bowl - Northern Illinois (+3) vs. UAB - Loss
Frisco Bowl - Ohio (-3) vs. San Diego State - Win
Gasparilla Bowl - South Florida (+4) vs. Marshall - Loss
Bahamas Bowl - Toledo (+0.5) vs. Florida International - Loss
Potato Bowl - Western Michigan (+12) vs. BYU - Loss
Birmingham Bowl - Memphis (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Loss
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston (+5) vs. Army - Loss
Dollar General Bowl - Troy (+1) vs. Buffalo - Win
Hawaii Bowl - Louisiana Tech (+1) vs. Hawaii - Win
Quick Lane Bowl - Minnesota (+6) vs. Georgia Tech - Win
Cheez-It Bowl - TCU (+1) vs. California - Win
Last Week: 5-1
Bowl Record: 10-7
2018 Record: 56-57-2 (-8.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Thunder (-12.5) vs. Bulls - Win
76ers (+3) at Spurs - Loss
Blazers (+3) at Clippers - Win
Pacers (-12) vs. Cavs - Loss
Celtics (-12) vs. Suns - Loss
Jazz (+4) vs. Warriors - Win
Last Week: 7-2
2018-19 Record: 44-37 (-1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. Arizona State - Win
Missouri (+4.5) vs. Xavier - Win
NC State (+3) vs. Auburn - Loss
UCLA (+9) at Cincinnati - Win
Texas Tech (+10.5) vs. Duke (Neutral Site) - Loss
Houston (-4) vs. Utah State - Win
Last Week: 4-8
2018-19 Record: 33-25-2 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Arsenal - Push
West Ham (Pick) vs. Watford - Loss
Huddersfield (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-21-7 (+1.51 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Spurs (+125) at Everton - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 10-10 (+2.55 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Semi-Final Preview

The Final Four is here, and I don't think anyone can complain about the teams that made it this far. Which is a change from recent history:

• Last year, we saw Esco make a run from the 6 seed to the Stevens Bowl
• In 2016, Levine was 9-4 with a bottom four point total (but still knocked me out of the playoffs)
• In 2015,  Z was 8-5 with a bottom five point total

It's been four years since we saw such a deserving group of semi-finalists, and it's the first time in FALAFEL history that we have the top four scorers making it this far. I'm obviously biased, but this suggests that our current scoring/playoff qualification system is working to both create maximum drama/excitement while still rewarding the most deserving teams. Either that, or it's just a random year where everything worked out.

On to the previews...

Semi-Final Preview

1. Zacherman vs. 4. Levine

Quarterback
For Levine, Dak has been on a bizarre every other week run. Since Week 7, in his odd number games he's broken 20 points every time, while in his even number games he's scored between 14.2 and 14.8. This is an even number game, with a mediocre matchup so we all know what to expect. Z has Mahomes on a Thursday against a good Chargers team, but if he can complete a no-look pass in the NFL, he can get more than 15 points.
Edge: Z

Runningbacks
This is Zacherman's Achilles heel. His pile of mediocrity is likely to produce between 10-30 points, but the ceiling just isn't there. I'd probably go with White and Edwards, but Adams and Howard may have a higher floor in terms of touches. Good luck with that one. Levine needs to shine here if he has a chance. Mixon and Tevin get nice matchups, but they've been all over the place this year. And it's hard to project much of anything for AP in that offense, but the Jags did let Henry run wild last week.
Edge: Levine 

Wide Receivers
Four of this season's top eight receivers will take part in this matchup, and all of them are banged up and/or facing tough defenses. If any of these guys goes off, that team will have a significant advantage, but I weirdly think they're all primed to disappoint.
Edge: Even

Tight End
Z getting Ebron as a top five tight end this year is the most maddening thing about this season.
Edge: Z

D/ST
Three good options here, as Levine gets a stout Ravens D against the potentially high-flying Bucs, and Z has to choose between the Jags feasting on the Skins or the Hawks taking on Mullens and Co. I expect high scores from all of these teams, but I lean towards Zacherman's options.
Pick: Z

Pick
Levine is my rival, and the defending champ, so I'm biased against him to begin with. That said, I'd prefer to face him if I get past Weissbard into the Stevens Bowl. I think he has a path to victory, but there are just too many things lining up nicely for Z. We're gonna have yet another first-time champ.
Pick: Z

2. Kumpf vs. 3. Weissbard

Quarterback
Deshaun has had a roller coaster season, but he seems to be locked in as of late. Cam has been a stud once again, but is coming off two of his lowest scores of the season, and may be injured. While I like getting the benefit of Cam on MNF, I can't pick between these two.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks
Zeke's season has been impressive and he faces a middle of the road defense in Indy. Gurley and Saquon think that's cute.
Big Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
Weiss gets Woods facing a ravaged Eagles secondary, but Tate just lost Wentz, and the rest of his WR options are a joke. Assuming Xavien Howard is out again, Diggs is my single biggest advantage in this matchup, and I have to assume Miami has a letdown after the Miracle. Landry probably shot his load last week, but it was good to see some signs of life, and he may be the second best receiver in this matchup.
Edge: Kumpf

Tight End
This is where we find out if Kelce is matchup proof. If he balls out on Thursday, I like my chances this week. Cook gets a nice matchup, and is on a hell of a run, but he needs to be at his best to keep up.
Edge: Kumpf 

D/ST
Weissbard is betting on matchups over talent in going with the Lions. I'm riding the Bears til they let me down, even against Rodgers.
Edge: Kumpf

Pick
Going position by position, it looks like I have the edge. However, Weissbard's advantage at RB is so enormous that it could swing the matchup by itself. On top of that, each of us have at least one player going in all seven game windows, starting with Kelce on Thursday, through Weiss's Rams on SNF and Cam on MNF. That's just constant stress in what should be a close matchup. I have a feeling that it comes down to Cam, and he just hasn't looked right the last few weeks. Call it a #Kurse, or call it reverse Smith-Schuster, but I think my first playoff win continues to elude me.
Pick: Weissbard

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 16-8

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/10

NFL Bets
Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Broncos (-3) vs. Browns - Loss
Lions (+3) at Bills - Win
Ravens (-7) vs. Bucs - Win
Seahawks (-4) vs. 49ers - Loss
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 38-28-5 (+4.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Alcorn State - Loss
Cure Bowl: Tulane (-3) vs. Louisiana - Win
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (-7) vs. North Texas - Win
Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State (-6) vs. Arizona State - Win
Camellia Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+3) vs. Georgia Southern - Win
New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-7) vs. Middle Tennessee - Win
Last Week: 5-2
Bowl Record: 5-1
2018 Record: 51-51-2 (-7.14 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Bucks (-11.5) vs. Cavs - Win
Kings (+5) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Clippers (+4) at Spurs - Loss
Pacers (+6) at 76ers - Win
Nets (-1.5) vs. Wizards - Win
Blazers (+5.5) vs. Raptors - Win
Hornets (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Loss
Nets (-6) vs. Hawks - Win
Kings (+7) at Mavericks - Win
Last Week: 6-5
2018-19 Record: 41-34 (-0.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Houston (-3.5) vs. LSU - Win
Oregon (-6.5) vs. San Diego - Win
Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Old Dominion - Loss
Kansas (-6.5) vs. Villanova - Loss
Purdue (-5.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Loss
Penn State (+5.5) vs. NC State - Loss
Washington (+9) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Oklahoma (-9) vs. USC - Win
Arizona (-6.5) vs. Baylor - Loss
St. Mary's (+4.5) vs. LSU (Neutral Site) - Win
Houston (-7) vs. Saint Louis - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Last Week: 11-8-1
2018-19 Record: 29-23-2 (+0.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Tottenham - Win
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 4-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-19-6 (+0.49 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 3-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (+1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (-1) vs. Napoli - Win
Inter Milan (-1.5) vs. PSV - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) vs. Dortmund - Loss
Roma (Pick) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
Valencia (Pick) vs. Manchester United - Win
Shahktar (Pick) vs. Lyon - Push
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
Schalke 04 (+105) vs. Lokomotiv - Win
Bayern Munich (+100) at Ajax - Loss
Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

First Round Preview

It's that time of year where we drop from 14 teams to 6 in pursuit of the elusive chef's coat, or in Belfer/Levine's case, a chef's hat. Zacherman deservedly won the regular season prize, as his team is still absurd on paper, but somehow my team had a better season. My four losses were by a combined 19.8 points and my team never scored less than 93.7, while Z's two losses were by a combined 33.8 points and he shit the bed at 75.4 points in one random week. Both of our teams would be worthy champions in any given year, and we are joined by strong Weissbard, Levine, and Belfer teams. Also Marco's here.

For some reason this fact escaped me until right now, but Zacherman has won back-to-back regular season championships. Looking even further, four of the six playoff teams returned from last year, Kumpf made the playoffs three years in a row, Z made the playoffs four years in a row, and Levine has made the playoffs five years in a row! There really is an upper class to this league, and the run that Levine and Z in particular have been on is truly incredible. On the flip side, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap haven't made the playoffs since 2015, the longest droughts in the league.

Playoff Odds

After Week 13:
We have never had a team start 13-0, 12-1, or 11-2
100% (2/2) of 10-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 9-4 teams make the playoffs
89% (8/9) of 8-5 teams make the playoffs
55% (6/11) of 7-6 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 6-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 5-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-9 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 3-10 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-11, 1-12, or 0-13

We had a few notable performances this year, as Z finished as the first 11-2 team in the ESPN era, and Marco becomes the second 6-7 team to make the playoffs. BAM showed up big to avoid the first 2-11 start, and knocked Bennnett out of the playoffs in the process.

The Hot Potato does not extend to the playoffs, so Alan takes home his second title with 51.3 points. I would not blame him for waiting until we receive Billy's card to send his own, but he's still on the hook.

First Round Preview

As always, I'll do position-by-position breakdowns for each team in honor of the late Dr. Z.

3. Weissbard vs. 6. Belfer

Quarterback
Goff was a huge trade acquisition by Belfer at midseason, but he nearly cost him the playoffs last week with a dud against Detroit. Things don't get much easier this week, as the Rams travel to Chicago to play outside in primetime on SNF. The Bears aren't as formidable as the elite defenses of the past (see: The Giants beating them), but Goff is still probably good a for two turnovers. Weissbard has a better situation with Deshaun taking on a shell-shocked Colts team at home. Houston's offense hasn't been dominant, but Watson has exploded a few times this year. I don't see that happening this week, but I'm still taking the easier matchup here.
Edge: Weissbard

Runningbacks
This discussion is easy, as Weiss destroys everyone at RB. The Bears come into play for Gurley, but he's still a lock for 15+, and Saquon should benefit from facing Mark Sanchez. Belfer was smart enough to handcuff John Conner, but he should expect a falloff with Jaylen Samuels, and Ingram hasn't been reliable but does have a juicy matchup.
Big Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This discussion is as easy as the RB discussion, just the other way around. Belfer's duo of AB and Evans haven't been as studly as expected, but they're still no-doubt WR1s with relatively easy matchups. Weissbard might have a ray of light with Golden Tate's performance on MNF, but that just counteracts David Moore's goose egg. Woods has to deal with the same Bears D that affects Goff and Gurley, so his ceiling is low.
Big  Edge: Belfer

Tight End
Trey Burton/Ian Thomas vs. Jared Cook. Ew.
Edge: Weissbard

Flex
Neither team has great flex options, but Belfer's choice between Blount/Richard/Sanu/Tre'Quan is superior to Weissbard's Moore/Penny/Gallup/Pettis.
Edge: Belfer

Pick
I like that this game comes down to SNF, and that all the relevant players are on one team. Gurley has been matchup-proof, while Goff has had random blips through the year (which, to be fair, hurts Woods as well). If Conner was healthy, I'd like Belfer's Steelers to put up 40 between them, but Samuels' workload questions give me just enough pause to favor Weissbard and end Belfer's Cinderalla run.
Pick: Weissbard

4. Levine vs. 5. Marco

Quarterback
Kirk on the road in Seattle on MNF is a terrifying thought for Marco. It's a huge game, but I've seen nothing this year to make me think Kirk can rise to the occasion. Dak has been equally inconsistent, but faces a Philly D that's about to start Charlie Day at cornerback. I don't think either QB blows up, but I like Dak's chances better.
Edge: Levine

Runningbacks/Flex
Both teams are built around their stable of solid to spectacular RBs, so I'll include flex in this discussion assuming Levine doesn't start Ridley or Sammy. Kamara is the clear #1 here, and he should eat against a Bucs team that he nearly scored 40 on in Week 1. After that, the breakdown is iffy. The Chargers probably have the second best matchup, but assuming Melvin doesn't play, Justin Jackson has a lower ceiling than Coleman and maybe AP (who should get roughly 60 carries so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to throw the ball). Joe Mixon is banged up and facing the Chargers, so this decision comes down to Dalvin. I was super high on him before the season, but got lucky to get rid of him when I did. If Minny has a chance, it has to be Cook who carries them, and I have a feeling he shows up big.
Edge: Marco

Wide Receivers
LOL
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
C.J. Uzomah/Vernon Davis vs. Vance McDonald. Ew.
Edge: Even

Pick
Marco gets last licks with Cousins and Cook, but unless Levine shits the bed, he's likely going to be down by about 40. If Melvin Gordon was playing, I'd give Marco a chance. But even if Gordon somehow suits up, he's not likely to put up the points necessary to overcome Levine's superior depth.
Pick: Levine

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 14-8

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/3

NFL Bets
Jaguars (+5) at Titans - Loss
Bills (-3) vs. Jets - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Rams - Win
Seahawks (-3) vs Vikings - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 35-25-5 (+5.01 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
As I did last year, I will be betting every bowl game starting next week.
I lost my Ohio State +1200 National Title bet, but I still have Oklahoma +4500, and hedge with a huge bet on Alabama -225. I also have Tua at +160 to win the Heisman.
Last Week: 5-2
2018 Record: 46-50-2 (-10.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pistons (+4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Nuggets (+8) at Raptors - Win
Blazers (+3) at Mavericks - Loss
Nuggets (+2.5) at Hornets - Loss
Cavs (+4.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Nets (+9) vs. Raptors - Win
Nets (+4) at Knicks - Win
Blazers (-2) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Pistons (+3) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Bucks (+7) at Raptors - Win
Spurs (+5) vs. Jazz - Win
Last Week: 4-5
2018-19 Record: 34-32 (-4.13 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NBA Win Total Check-In
The Good
Celtics under 59
Hornets over 35.5
Warriors under 62.5
Rockets under 56.5
Pacers under 47.5
Magic over 31
Spurs under 43.5

The Bad
Nets over 32
Lakers under 48.5
T-Wolves over 41.5
76ers under 53.5

The Ugly
Hawks over 23.5
Mavericks under 35.5
Jazz over 49.5

NCAA Basketball Bets
Michigan State (-9) vs. Iowa - Win
Indiana (+2.5) at Penn State - Win
Oklahoma (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Win
Providence (+5) at Boston College - Win
West Virginia (+3.5) vs. Florida (Neutral Site) - Loss
Michigan (-5.5) at Northwestern - Loss
Ohio State (-5.5) at Illinois - Win
Villanova (-8.5) vs. Temple - Win
Nebraska (-3.5) at Minnesota - Loss
Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. Washington - Loss
USC (+3.5) vs. TCU - Loss
Seton Hall (+7) vs. Kentucky - Win
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Wichita State - Win
Villanova (-10.5) vs. St. Joseph's - Win
Houston (+3.5) at Oklahoma State - Win
Maryland (-8) vs. Loyola - Win
Wisconsin (+3) at Marquette - Loss
Arizona (+3) at Alabama - Push
Virginia (-13.5) vs. VCU - Loss
Gonzaga (-3) vs. Tennessee (Neutral Site) - Loss
Last Week: 7-4
2018-19 Record: 25-15-2 (+5.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Arsenal - Push
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at West Ham - Loss
Burnley (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Cardiff (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
Chelsea (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Win
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 22-19-6 (-1.31 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (-275) vs. Southampton - Win
Liverpool (-165) at Bournemouth - Win
Tottenham (+100) at Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (-1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 16-9-3 (+3.67 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-4.11 units)