Week 3 Recap

Through three weeks, I have admittedly not had as much focus on fantasy as I usually do, and while I assumed that this would impact my team's performance this year, I did not think it would affect my opponents. Yet here I sit, at 1-2, 0.4 points away from 0-3, with a Points Allowed situation that would make the Chiefs (coincidentally my defense this week) blush. I've allowed 12ppg more than the next most team (Gutman) and nearly 50ppg more than Weissbard's charmed 3-0 team, who I get the pleasure of facing this week. Given my team's performance, 1-2 seems like the correct record, but the way I got there has been frustrating to say the least.

This is not all to bitch about a situation that no one cares about (though I've allowed the most and second most points in my other two leagues as well, if you're into that sort of thing), it's just to say that while things are still very early, some of it is real and some of it is not. That's the gimmick this week.

Trade Grade 3
Esco receives Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Zacherman receives Calvin Ridley and Philip Lindsay
This is a bit of a whack-a-mole trade. Esco had a massive hole at RB and now has a massive hole at WR. Zacherman had a massive hole at WR and now has another Texans RB. Esco is likely buying high on Clyde, who seemed to be a fumble away from getting benched a week ago. Z is definitely buying low on Ridley, who was favored to lead the league in receiving yards before Week 1 and currently has less fantasy points than Zach Pascal.

I've said it over and over, but RBs have absurdly high value in this league, this year more than ever. Z was trying to get Cooper Kupp from me for Clyde straight up, and I had to consider it even before CEH broke out last week. I don't blame either team for making this move, but I'm giving the edge to Esco because filling a WR hole is much easier than filling one at RB. Z still has more options than most if Zeke or JRob goes down, but he just all of his non-Texans contingency.
Grades:
Esco: B+
Zacherman: B-

Week 3 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 4th)
Real: TJ Hockenson is a top three Tight End. Kelce is the undisputed #1, and Waller is probably still 2, but beyond that, I would want Hock. Goff literally looks his way on every play, and it was a Monday Night Miracle that he didn't get another catch on the last drive two weeks ago. On a team with no receivers and no future, he will have well over 100 receptions this year.
Not Real: Ja'Marr Chase will not score on over 35% of his catches this year. That goes without saying, but Chase has four less targets than Julio and almost double the points. That won't last, and when Higgins comes back you're going to have some tough Flex decisions.

2. Levine (Last Week: 7th)
Real: This team is as well positioned for a blockbuster trade as anyone else in the league. This year more than ever, RBs are worth overpaying for in trades, and Levine has a few options here. His rookies (Javon and Michael Carter) are trending towards being startable in this league and James Conner might be there already. The big decision is whether to use one of them to improve at WR or TE, or if its worth making a move for one of the few RB big guns out there (of which Ekeler may already be one).
Not Real: Teams will start to cover Brandin Cooks. He's literally the only scary option in a completely abysmal offense. I expect a dud this week and after that you'll need ARob and DJ to step up their games.

3. Marco (Last Week: 1st)
Real: Mike Williams is one of the steals of the draft. As a previous owner, I know how frustrating it can be to own Big Mike, but he looks like a completely different player so far. He's averaging over 10 targets a game and Herbert clearly trusts him in the endzone. Injuries are always a concern here, but if healthy he's a no doubt starter in a contract year.
Not Real: WFT D/ST cannot possible be as bad as they've looked so far (but I still wouldn't start them). The talent is too strong and the coach is too good, but they are literally the lowest scoring D/ST in the league so far. I expect a massive bounce back this week, but looming games against the Chiefs, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks have the potential for negative points. Homerism only goes so far.

4. Billy (Last Week: 6th)
Real: Derrick Henry is not human. I was down on him at the draft because no RB has ever carried this large of a load for multiple years in a row (which caused me to invest in the Titans' passing game 😐), but King Henry is probably the single most valuable asset in fantasy. Combine that with Najee Harris getting an absurd target share and a likely bounceback from JTT, and Billy's RB stable is the envy of the league.
Not Real: Derek Carr will not average over 20ppg. I'm not super confident about this assertion, as he's done it against three above average defenses, but Carr is known to fall off as the season progresses. It likely won't be this week against the Chargers, but I don't know if I would consider him a "set it and forget it" QB for the rest of the season.

5. Mejia (Last Week: 5th)
Real: I'm probably too high on this team. I continue to rate this squad high based on potential (and they probably beat Levine with a healthy Dalvin), but at some point the results need to follow. If you stay as the second lowest scoring team after this coming week, I will drop you out of the top 10.
Not Real: Rob Woods is not an afterthought for the Rams. Currently Cooper Kupp is WR1 and Woods is WR49. I assume the season ends with them less than 15 spots apart.

6. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)
Real: Not drafting Chuba Hubbard will sink a once-promising season. All signs point to CMC coming back at some point, but that was also the case last season, so I'll believe it when I see it. After more than one week of looking at JJ Taylor and JD McKissic, Weiss is going to have to get rid of one of his QBs for pennies on the dollar just to break 5 points at RB2. Chuba would have solved that problem but instead he's giving the BarnDogs life support.
Not Real: Jaylen Waddle will average more than 7.6 yards per catch. For someone who was considered a potential "next Reek", Miami is currently using him exclusively on screens. They will open things up at some point and Waddle will step into your starting lineup as a boom/bust flex option.

7. Nick (Last Week: 3rd)
Real: You need to trade for a QB. I'm not telling you something you don't know, but good lord this is bad situation. I wouldn't sell Chubb and I can't see anyone meeting your Saquon price, but Melvin or Ty'Son probably look pretty good to Weissbard right now.
Not Real: You don't need to worry about Kyle Pitts. I have no idea what the Falcons are doing, but minimizing Pitts' role is one of the most bizarre storylines of the fantasy season so far. Maybe it's because he looks incredible in that black uniform, but I think he's got a massive game coming soon.

8. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
Real: Your Week 2 performance. A "good" week putting you slightly over 100 sounds about right for a roster with Mahomes, a stable of above average or better WRs, and jack shit at RB.
Not Real: Your Weeks 1 and 3 performances. You will not come close to breaking 140 again in your lifetime, but I also doubt you fall below 50 again (this year at least). You also may set the record for most RB duos started in a season. What a rollercoaster.

9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
Real: You need to trade Kittle before he gets hurt. It would be very hard to give up on Waller, who is producing like a top 25 WR, but Kittle is not at that level and he plays so violently that he can't last an entire season. Don't worry, I won't tell anyone.
Not Real: You should not trade your high value backups. Your RB situation is bleak, but you do have the handcuffs for the Vikings, Chiefs, and to a far lesser extent, Dolphins. Unless you can recoup a starter, I would hold all of those guys as they have a little bit of standalone value, but a ton of injury upside, as you already saw last week. (Though if you can package one of them with Kittle for a starting RB, I would do that in a second)

10. Zacherman (Last Week: 12th)
Real: They may not break 60 every week, but you have a true three-headed monster at RB. After two weeks, Zeke, CEH, and JRob were three of the most disappointing players in fantasy, but they certainly bounced back in Week 3. Outside of Billy, you have the most enviable RB situation, and really only need to upgrade WR2 and TE, so if they continue to produce, you'll be a top five team.
Not Real: This team is an injury away from disaster.  Despite how good your lineup looked last week, the bench is a wasteland. It's not worth trading your strength for contingency plans, but with no handcuffs and minimal upside, Mark Ingram Starting RB is not too far-fetched.

11. Alan (Last Week: 13th)
Real: Despite my thoughts last week, the Kareem Hunt trade was necessary. He obviously won't put up 25ppg every week, but a baseline of 8-10 points makes a big difference compared to your other options. It hurts to lose DK, but you have depth to make up for it somewhat.
Not Real: You will not keep getting double digits from your defense. The Panthers start has been both unexpected and impressive (and I was wildly wrong about you dropping the Steelers), but you can't rely on a D/ST unless it's truly transcendent. The Titans are set up well against the Jets this week, but they are a truly terrible defense, so I see that streak stopping sooner than later.

12. Gutman (Last Week: 10th)
Real: Jalen Hurts is a (fantasy) QB1. I was dubious before the season, but Hurts has the double whammy of running the ball and garbage time to make him a great fantasy option. In what is likely a lost season for both you and the Eagles, that's a nice silver lining.
Not Real: Gronk. He has 50 points through three games. I don't think he ends the season with more than 150.

13. Kumpf (Last Week: 11th)
Real: Joe Mixon is vindicated. After being the most frustrating player in the league to own last year, he's at least living up to his draft prices. I'm also grasping at straws.
Not Real: I won't keep losing a starter every week. I've lost Gus, Mostert, Diontae, and AJB in succession, so either the injuries will stop, or I will literally run out of starters.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Real: This is the worst team in all of fantasy football that drafted Kyler Murray. The Dobbins injury hurt, but this team crumbled quickly. I have to assume Ridley bounces back, and Swift has been a shockingly reliable option, but you're currently starting the RB3 for Las Vegas, TE2 for New England, and WR2 for Denver. Not great Bob.
Not Real: Keenan Allen will not be the WR2 for the Chargers. I really like Mike, but Keenan is still a far better talent. As teams start to give safety help towards Big Mike, I expect Keenan to put up a slew of 10-reception games soon.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Levine
Two  teams that aren't even in the same division while we have multiple intradivisional matchups? You're damn right. Both of these teams are top 4 in the Power Rankings, and one of them is about to fall into a decent hole. The stakes are high and the fun lasts all weekend. Billy has the potential for a big start with Chark on TNF, but even if he gets a dud, his RB trio gets to feast on some less than stellar defenses. His biggest concern is the Titans going up 30 on the Jets in the first half and then benching him. Corey Davis should benefit from that situation, however, so I really like Team Lutz this week, culminating with Carr on MNF.

Levine has a tougher slate of matchups, with Lamar facing the Broncos, Cooks facing the Bills, and ARob being on the Bears. I like Ekeler and DJ, but I don't think it will be enough to keep up with Billy.
Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 2-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 2 Recap

This is a class week for me, so that means a pared down version of the rankings. I'll plan on doing a brief intro, trade grade if applicable, followed by just a list of the rankings and a Matchup of the Week breakdown, but that's all subject to change in future months.

Two weeks in, and as many have noticed, we only have two 2-0 teams and two 0-2 teams. Complex algebra leads me to a conclusion that 10 teams are 1-1. Combine that with a 14-game regular season, and literally nothing that has happened means anything yet. Sure Levine would love to have pulled out one of his MNF disasters, and Weissbard was 1 yard away from 1-1, but we still have three months until the playoffs.

More signs that it's early:

• Daniel Jones is QB4 on the season, Josh Allen isn't in the top 15, and Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert are not in the top 20.
• Cordarrelle Patterson, Tony Pollard, and Ty'son Williams individually have more points than Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire combined.
• Deebo Samuel has 11 more points than Allen Robinson and Kenny Golladay combined.
• Rob Gronkowski has 4 TDs after 2 games. It took him until Week 10 for his 4th TD last year.
• The Panthers have a top 3 D/ST.

Some if these positives may represent breakouts (Dimes looked solid in an RG3 offense as a dual threat on TNF) or revivals (Gronk is clearly healthy), and some may represent early signs of bust (I've been down on Saquon and Herbert since the draft) but it's likely a lot of noise that shouldn't dictate any massive overreactions.

That said, if anyone wants to trade a RB1 and WR1 for Cooper Kupp, I'll consider it. He has more points than Alvin Kamara and Davante Adams combined after all.

Trade Grade 2

Alan receives Kareem Hunt and Dallas Goedert

Weissbard receives DK Metcalf

This is a weird one. Alan desperately needed RB help and Weissbard desperately needed WR help, so there was an obvious trade path. But the value between the players involved is a little bit off. DK has started relatively slow, but is a clear top 15 WR. Kareem is flex-worthy in most cases with RB1 upside, so let's call him a top 30 RB. Even with the RB-premium, I think DK is a good bit more valuable moving forward. 

That's fine on the surface, but a more even trade would have been Thielen or Evans for Hunt straight up. Instead, to try to balance things out, Weissbard threw in Dallas Goedert. That left him with literally no one at TE (Austin Hooper doesn't change that), and gave Alan someone who he still can't really feel comfortable starting each week. I think both teams probably got better, but there was a more logical path.

Grades:

Alan: B-

Weissbard: B

Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Marco (Last Week: 1st)
2. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd)
3. Nick (Last Week: 5th)
4. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)
5. Mejia (Last Week: 4th)
6. Billy (Last Week: 6th)
7. Levine (Last Week: 7th)
8. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
10. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
11. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)
12. Zacherman (Last Week: 11th)
13. Alan (Last Week: 14th)
14. Esco (Last Week: 12th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Weissbard
When the only two undefeated teams play each other, they're automatically MotW. The only other matchup that I considered was Mejia potentially putting Levine in a 0-3 hole in a divisional matchup, but this is the clear highlight. 

With Tua ruled out already, I would assume Gruden doesn't risk Jacobs, leading to Barnard rolling out David Johnson and James White against CMC and Gibson in what is likely the biggest mismatch positionally in FALAFEL history (The way this season has gone, I expect DJ and White to have 3 total TDs on 8 rushing yards, and for CMC to get hurt, leading to Chuba Hubbard, RB1). Both QBs should go off, so if Barnard wants to actually gain ground it will be at the WR position. Reek is Reek, and I really like Sutton's role, especially against the Jets, so it really comes down to Deebo. The Packers have a shut down corner available, so I would assume Alexander is deployed on Deebo and this is an Aiyuk game. If Deebo does it again, then Barnard can move into the top 5, but I'm not betting on it until I see it.

Pick: Weissbard
MotW Record: 1-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Trade Grade 1

Gutman receives Damien Harris and Robby Anderson
Nick receives Stefon Diggs and Joe Burrow

This trade is worthy of more than a blurb in the usual weekly recap, mainly because there are three ways to look at it: the value of players traded, the impact on each team, and the process. As you may have guessed, I have A LOT to say about the process here.

Value
This is pretty straightforward. Draft values don't matter anymore but we're not too far from a literal dollar amount being placed on each of the players involved. Let's take a look:

• Damien Harris - $9
• Robby Anderson - $9
• Stefon Diggs - $50
• Joe Burrow - $4

I know that Sony got traded post-draft, but in order for this trade to be even, Harris would have had to be a top-15 RB. He might end up there, but I'm going to pretty confidently say that Nick got better players here.

Edge: Nick

Impact
In our league RBs are worth more than gold. That's even more true this year, due to both to the relative lack of depth at the RB position in general, as well as the early injuries to a slew of potential starting RBs. On the flipside, receiver is insanely deep. So deep that Gutman could trade a $50 receiver and still get to choose between Terry McLaurin, Chase Claypool, Devonta Smith, and Brandon Aiyuk even if he didn't get Robby Anderson in return. Nick gets a big upgrade from Robby or AB to Diggs, but the upgrade from DeeJay Dallas (now back on the waiver wire!) to Damien Harris is juuuust a little bit more important.
Edge: Gutman

Process

I got receipts:

This started as a pretty standard question about how quickly trades would process, and quickly devolved into what appeared to be Gutman second guessing himself for turning down Damien for Terry straight up. At the same time, I got this:

Assumption confirmed.

After that, whether due to confusion about when trades would process or Gutman getting overwhelmed, the trade didn't happen before Week 1. Terry, Damien, and Ty'Son all looked pretty good over the weekend, though there were some questions about the RBs respective roles moving forward. The one player who didn't look great was Diggs, who not only got looped into the trade, but Nick also got an upgrade at QB. Robby Anderson was a nice consolation WR, but still wasn't really a need for Gutman. 

Once again, I got receipts:

Just a great experience all around.

Grades:

Nick: A-

Gutman: B-

Week 1 Recap

What a week to kickoff the season. Starting Thursday night with Marco's declarative statement on his Stevens Bowl aspirations, and ending with one of the better Monday Night Miracles ever potentially kicking off Round 3 of the Masandiassance (I think we can all agree that oven mitts that say "Save That CUM" would be fantastic), this week did not lack for drama. That continued through Wednesday where Ajay shattered Wayne Gallman's previous record by bidding a whopping $198 for a player who will likely be third string in San Fran by Week 8. Just an amazing week all around.

However, it is just one week. The Cardinals looked amazing, but they played a bottom 5 (bottom 1?) Titans defense. Same with the Eagles, 49ers, and Texans. The Bills, Packers, and Chargers did not look explosive, to say the least, but they played some stifling defenses. I do think that the Rams, Bucs, Cowboys, Browns, and Chiefs (duh) are as good as they look, and the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, and Falcons are as bad as they look. But everything else is a massive TBD. Let the overreaction commence!

Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Marco (Post Draft: 2nd)
It's only one week, but... I can't really find any holes in this roster. Brady doesn't appear to have aged, and if anything looks better. His RB stable is not spectacular but he has four options that he could start (given Hyde's shockingly large role), which is 2 more than most teams and 3 more than Gutman. His worst receiver is Tee Higgins. Even Logan Thomas is serviceable. The scariest thing is that we know Marco isn't afraid to make trades, so getting someone like Darren Waller or DK Metcalf is not hard to envision.

2. AGD (Post Draft: 1st)
It's only one week, but...the only questions I had about this roster were answered, and some new ones appeared. This is unquestionably a playoff team, and Dak/Kamara/Hockenson(!) is a nice trio at their positions, but the performance of Julio and Mike Davis is concerning. Your bench is still pretty stacked, but that may just lead to some more difficult lineup decisions on a weekly basis. I can also see some pretty obvious trade options here given the unexpectedly strong performances of Singletary and Jamaal Williams. 

3. Weissbard (Post Draft: 4th)
It's only one week, but...this team is one trade away from being a true contender. The Jeudy injury hurts an already mediocre (but deep) WR corps, so a Kareem/Waddle for stud WR trade makes a whole lot of sense for more than one team out there. Herbert did nothing in Week 1 to make me think he's not Wentz 2.0, so I continue to think that's a diminishing asset, but he's still an upgrade for a handful of teams.

4. Mejia (Post Draft: 5th)
It's only one week, but...a normal Rodgers performance would have you at 1-0. I didn't love the Terrace Marshall lineup decision, but I'll chalk that up to Bennett, and now Fuller is off suspension and some other great Mejia picks like Shephard and Sammy looked good last week. Kelce may be the single most dominant player in fantasy, and while I don't love Fat Lenny starting, Pollard seems like he's moving closer to Kareem Hunt co-starter territory.

5. Nick (Post Draft: 12th)
It's only one week, but...I would not start Saquon this week. As I said in the draft recap, this will be an absolutely brutal year to own Saquon, and WFT on a short week will be another slog. On the bright side, you actually don't need to start him this week. Chubb looked phenomenal, Ty'Son has the chance to hold onto the job in Baltimore, and if Damien doesn't get benched he's going to get a ton of carries. That's an enviable situation, and gives you assets to improve your QB and TE situation if needed.

6. Billy (Post Draft: 11th)
It's only one week, but...Billy may have found his balance. His RB trio had a pretty rough week, but he appears to have hit on Corey Davis and the Jags passing game, and he somehow has the most prolific QB trio in the league. Some of that will certainly regress, but I'd have to assume that Henry/JTT/Najee combine for more than 30 in most other weeks, and even if they don't Hines is flex-worthy in his current role.

7. Levine (Post Draft: 9th)
It's only one week, but...crushing loss aside, this is a perfectly average team. There are some opportunities for upside if Lamar stops bailing from the pocket and ARob gets a QB upgrade, but otherwise Levine will be between 90-100 every week. That should lead to a .500-ish record, but I don't see Levine being a division captain next year.

8. Barnard (Post Draft: 13th)
It's only one week, but...the floor (and ceiling) of this team is higher than anticipated. I assumed that the Mahomes/Reek combo gave Barnard a floor of 40-50 every week. That appears to be low based on how they looked against Cleveland, and if the KC defense is as rough as they looked, the Chiefs will need to throw more than they have the last two years. The rest of his team is where the ceiling comes in. His WRs always looked solid, but Deebo's role in the San Fran offense is back to 2019 levels, Courtland Sutton is now WR1 in Denver, Odell is...there, and if the Pats passing game is competent, then Barnard has options there as well. Runningback is still going to be an issue. I don't think I've ever seen two RBs put up 26.8 points on 44 total rushing yards, but as long as they both have a redzone presence, it might not matter. One Chiefs injury would cripple this team, but if they stay healthy, the Barndogs might sniff the playoffs.

9. Ajay (Post Draft: 14th)
It's only one week, but...the Elijah Mitchell bid will determine the outcome of Ajay's season. I respect the balls here, but despite how bad he looked Week 1, RoJo is still the RB1 in Tampa. He should theoretically be a starting option, so losing your ability to win an auction for the rest of the year is questionable. The rest of the squad looked pretty solid, as you have to be happy with Henderson's role for now, and the Lamb/JJ/Waller trio will be strong every week. Kittle is really the odd man out, so a trade to one of the top teams for some RB help probably makes the most sense long term.

10. Kumpf (Post Draft: 7th)
It's only one week, but... drafting Raheem Mostert was a mistake. "If Mostert was healthy" was basically the eulogy for Nick's team last year, but I fell into the trap this year and he didn't even last one half. Had he played the whole game, I not only could have taken down Barnard, but the outlook of my season would look entirely different. I'm not worried about my Titans, given how abysmal their defense looks they will throw it a ton, and the Jameiscoaster will be fun, but unless Trey Sermon takes over in San Fran, my ceiling is limited.

11. Zacherman (Post Draft: 6th)
It's only one week, but... that was the absolute floor for your team. Outside of Stafford (who should be a top 5 QB), not one starter hit double figures on a team that was top heavy if anything. I am a little bit concerned about JRob's role, but Zeke, Clyde, and Davante will all bounce back to varying degrees (though matchups are not easy this week). My biggest concern remains depth, with very limited upside on your bench unless the Texans keep feeding Ingram for 2.8 YPC. Another rough week from your studs and I will likely reconsider, but I expect a better performance this time out.

12. Esco (Post Draft: 8th)
It's only one week, but... you may have wasted Kyler's best performance of the season. I'm sure he will be a top 10 QB this season, but his receivers were literally wide open the entire game, and with that division I don't expect too many other passing days like that (though the non-division schedule is light). Outside of that, I don't know what was more of a kick in the balls, Ridley and Keenan barely breaking 20, or getting a goose egg from your TE. Either way, regression should even things out all around here, but the upside is limited.

13. Gutman (Post Draft: 3rd)
It's only one week, but... you should enjoy 13th while you can. RB2 is clearly a wasteland on this team, but AJones will bounce back, Aiuyk will presumably play football this season, and it's possible (for now) that Jalen is legit. If he crashes back to earth this week, then you'll likely fall to the basement, but a dual threat QB with a solid O-Line and decent offensive weapons gives you some insurance. The obvious solution is to trade a WR for an RB, which you're well aware of. Last week you almost traded Terry for either Damien Harris or Ty'Son, which probably would have helped, but now I think your best outcome is to minimize the trade rape.

14. Alan (Post Draft: 10th)
It's only one week, but... if it is truly the Masandiassance II, you'll have to dig out of a pretty big roster hole. I'm willing to give Josh a pass based on a good Pittsburgh D, but you have to be a little bit scared after that performance. But the real reason you're at the bottom is the lack of options on this roster. Your RB2 situation is nearly as bad as Gutman's, but trading a WR would hurt your team way more than it would for Gutman. I'm pretty low on Sanders and Thielen, and while they showed out in Week 1, I don't expect that to be weekly occurrence. So really this team has Allen and DK, and then a bunch of mediocrity at best. Hopefully this gives you even more incentive to take down Esco this week.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Nick
The only matchup of undefeated teams includes an Ajay team that I still don't love, so I'll go with the only division matchup this week. Both of these teams have massive questions about consistency across their roster, but the upside to each team is there if things break right. Nick also has the chance to jump to 2-0 and try to keep pace with Weissbard, while giving Billy an uphill climb.

Nick has the rare edge at QB this week, based primarily on matchups, but the real turning point of this matchup will be at RB. If Nick has the stones to sit Saquon, I think he runs away with this. Chubb, Harris, Ty'Son, and even Melvin Fucking Gordon have better matchups than Saquon and none of them are banged up. If Nick accepts the sub-10 point performance from Saquon, Billy's studs will have a chance to compete. Not a big enough chance for me to pick him (Lawrence and Chark vs. Denver and Corey Davis vs. the Pats will not be fun), but Nick losing due to starting Saquon would still be fun.
Pick: Nick
MotW Record: 1-0
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Asheville Draft Recap

Better late than never! 

My usual gimmick of rating everyone's draft using movie, TV, or song quotes was a little bit more difficult this year, which contributed to the delay along with one of the busier two week stretches of my life. Asheville isn't exactly a pop culture hot spot, and some of my options were Dirty Dancing, The Last of the Mohicans, and The Hunger Games, along with Forrest Gump, but that was used already (and could probably be used every year). So I'm going for a little bit of a stretch this year and seeing how this works using the 1993 Harrison Ford/Tommie Lee Jones/Joe Pantoliano classic, filmed in the Asheville area, The Fugitive.

Esco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: All right, listen up, ladies and gentlemen, our fugitive has been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground, barring injuries, is 4 miles per hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive's name is Dr. Richard Kimble. Go get him.

We start with a monologue that jump-started Tommie Lee's career, and it goes to the ringleader of Draft Weekend. This was probably the most difficult draft to organize, between the setup of the "city" the lack of reliable Ubers, rampant flooding, and no support from Gutman or Belfer. It was still a successful weekend, and the house was excellent, so kudos to your work there.

In terms of your draft, it looked solid at the time. The Dobbins injury is obviously rough, but this was a deep team as it was drafted. You have a case for the strongest receiver duo in the league, and even without Dobbins, your RB2 situation still isn't the worst in the league. 
Best Pick: D'Andre Swift for $30
Worst Pick: Kenny Golladay for $10. None of your picks were huge overpays or huge values, so getting Swift for half the price of the top RBs and paying double digits for Giants WR will have to suffice. 
Grade: B+ 

Billy
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Henry, Dr. Nichols lied to me. Go find him.

Most players in our league drafted the way they usually do. Hell, my predicted picks almost all hit. The one big exception was Billy going for three RBs instead of his usual two studs. I was skeptical during the draft, but after seeing how fucked the rest of the league is at RB, I think he has a huge edge in that spot. The rest of his squad is absolute trash, but that's always the case, and at least he got some handcuffs this year.
Best Pick: Jonathan Taylor for for $50. Billy is always tough for these sections, but I really like Taylor this year and that's a nice price.
Worst Pick: Bills D/ST for $2. When you go big at RB, every dollar counts, so spending more than $1 on a non-stud defense is a luxury that Billy can't afford.
Grade: B

Marco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Newman, we're gonna send you a bunch of cops, make sure they turn that place inside out.
Newman: You got it Sam.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: And don't let them give you any shit about your pony tail.

The only league member who can actually pull of a pony tail gets this random quote. Marco's presence was missed for Draft Weekend, but it worked wonders for his squad. Almost every time I saw a player go for less than expected, it seemed like Marco won the auction. The specific players are not my favorites, but I can't argue at all with the process.
Best Pick: David Montgomery for $31. Don't like Monty at all this year, but he probably should have gone for $10 more.
Worst Pick: DeAndre Hopkins for $49. Receiver is insanely deep this year, and I don't see Nuk worth $14 more than Keenan Allen.
Grade: A-

Ajay
Dr. Richard Kimble: I didn't kill my wife!
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't care!

The most iconic line in the movie unfortunately goes to the worst draft in the league. Yes, Ajay has two of the top three TEs, and no, I don't care. I have no issue with going big at TE, as it's a onesie position and having WR2 production there is a massive edge over most of the rest of the league. HOWEVER, if you're starting more than one TE, then you are literally picking them over a RB or WR, who have more consistent production. Not to mention that going with Waller and Kittle means that you are totally fucked at QB and RB. I would be shocked if this team makes the playoffs.
Best Pick: Darren Waller for $31. Kelce absolutely deserved to be the top TE, but Waller has a shot to unseat him and is the clear top option in the Vegas passing game.
Worst Pick: George Kittle for $26. No issues with the price, but if you combined the money spent on Kittle and RoJo, you could have had someone in the Dobbins, Monty, Josh Jacobs tier. This team would look a lot better with that setup.
Grade: D

Nick
Cosmo Renfro: What happened? Where'd he go?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: The guy did a Peter Pan right off of this dam, right here.
Cosmo Renfro: What?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Yeah. BOOM.
Cosmo Renfro: Holy shit... Can we go home now...?

This line works a couple of ways for Nick. First, I can totally see this being his response to hearing that someone jumped off the top of a dam. But also, his grade is going to drop the most from last year to this year. I loved Nick's team post-draft last season, and even most of the year despite him winning only one game (I mean look at my roster this season). But starting with a Saquon pick that is probably my least favorite in the league, continuing through a Big Ben/Fields QB situation, and ending with $3 and two roster spots on defense, I did not like this draft. However, the addition of Rock/Paper/Scissors for Shot Spot Companion was a personal highlight of Draft Weekend.
Best Pick: Kyle Pitts for $11. I made fun of Barnard for likely overpaying for Pitts pre-draft, but this could be insane value if he lives up to expectations. Even if he doesn't, it's not a $20 mistake.
Worst Pick: Saquon Barkley for $64. It's going to be hard enough being a Giants fan this year with their abysmal offensive line, turnover-prone QB, and clown of a coach, that paying this much to wince every time Saquon is tackled for a two yard loss on 1st and 10 will just add insult to injury.
Grade: C

Alan
Dr. Richard Kimble: They killed my wife.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I know it Richard. But it's over.
[pauses and sighs]
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: You know I'm glad. I need the rest.

Only one member of this league can get a quote with a nice big sigh in it, and after a week in the wilderness, I'm sure Alan can use the rest. Alan's picks were a lesser version of Marco's, where I kept seeing him get players for less than expected. Alan went bigger across the board, so his depth is lacking a bit, and his RB situation is problematic at best, but he has a path to the playoffs.
Best Pick: Josh Allen at $26. I know I'm in the minority, but I think Josh is going to be QB1 this season.
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $32. The Bucs offense has so many weapons that I don't love spending big on any individual player outside of maybe Brady. For a team that already had DK, this pick took much needed funds from the RB position.
Grade: B

Kumpf
Dr. Charles Nichols: Richard, I'm sorry, but I'm in the middle of this speech!
Dr. Richard Kimble: You almost got away with it, didn't you? I know all about it. I can prove it.

I gave myself this quote as I tried to take on Levine using his own strategy. It looked like it was working well for a bit, but when our Cooper Kupp bids approached $30, it was clear that I didn't quite get away with it, and both of our teams were weaker as a result. I obviously got lucky as hell with the Gus Bus bid, but grades don't account for that, and my team is super deep with potential starters and/or handcuffs, but has no studs at all. The fact that I have Joe Mixon again is insane, but looking at RB prices I'll take Mixon as the 14th most expensive RB any day.
Best Pick: Diontae Johnson for $13. Back to the well on this guy too, but he's WR1 in Pittsburgh and that price is criminal. 
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $30. Already addressed. Diontae and Kupp for $43 combined is probably accurate, but the fund breakdown is less than ideal.
Grade: B+

Barnard
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: [First lines, said when arriving at the scene of the train wreck] My, my, my. What a mess.

This quote certainly describes Barnard's performance on Draft Day, starting with a poor Rock/Paper/Scissors showing, and culminating with waiting well over 2 hours to draft his second RB, the immortal David Johnson. While there is a decent chance that he has no RBs that will be starting on their own teams, the rest of his roster is not terrible. Mahomes to Tyreek will be unquestionably fun, he has no clear WR2 but about 7 WR3 options, and there's always the chance the Michael Thomas plays this season. That said, he can only start three of his WRs, and it's not like teams are dying to trade RBs for non-stud WRs, so I think he will struggle to have much upside beyond the high floor that his Chiefs provide.
Best Pick: Patrick Mahomes for $31. This was the seventh player nominated. If he had been 15 players later, I think he goes for $40.
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $13. I don't think he plays this season, and even if he does, spending $13 for a WR that will spend at least half the season on IR while not having a plan at RB2 is irresponsible.
Grade: C-

Mejia
Marshal Biggs: Sam, are you out of your mind? He's dead.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That ought to make him easier to catch.

No one really fears Bennett during the draft. He might jack up the prices on some Eagles, but that wasn't really a concern this year. So with Mejia in full control, we all breathed even easier, expecting multiple defenses, Deshaun Watson for $20, and all the Cowboys. Instead, we got...a shockingly good draft. Much like I gave Autodraft credit when Donny did well, this is Mejia's team for this season, and it's one that I think will make the playoffs.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $12. My biggest regret is not going higher for Rodgers, well done.
Worst Pick: Robert Woods for $32. Rob Woods always goes for more than expected for obvious reasons, but that is the biggest blemish on this roster.
Grade: B+

Zacherman
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: So he showed up not dead yet. Let that be a lesson to you, boys and girls. Don't ever argue with the big dog, because the big dog is always right.
Marshal Biggs: Woo-woo-woo-woof.

As you can tell, I'm running out of even somewhat relevant quotes, so Zacherman gets one that mentions a dog. Z went big on three players, two of which I like, and then lucked out with JRob turning into a top 20 RB, so his grade will be lower here than I expect his team to finish. With all the investment that KC put into their offensive line, I think CEH is primed for a top 5 RB finish. By the time he was nominated, I already had Joe Fucking Mixon, otherwise I would have been all over Clyde. Z's team is thin at QB and TE, but he should be able to stream and/or trade his way into competence there. I doubt this a title contender, but the playoffs could easily be in the cards.
Best Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for $49. 
Worst Pick: Davante Adams for $58. The price is probably fair for the talent, but given how deep WR is, and how much prices fell off after Davante and Tyreek, you could have built a deeper team by saving here.
Grade: B+

AGD
Dr. Richard Kimble: I thought you didn't care?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't.[laughs] Don't tell anybody, okay?
The best buddy moment in the movie goes to the most successful duo in FALAFEL history. Per usual AGD has an extremely solid squad, with high end talent at some spots and depth across the board. The biggest "hole" in their roster is that none of their receivers are the top option in their teams' passing games, and some aren't even top 2, but that's picking nits. I might be ordering two chef hats next summer.
Best Pick: TJ Hockenson for $9. This is the top receiving option for a team that's going to have to pass a lot, similar to Waller. He just cost $22 less.
Worst Pick: Devin Singletary for $6. If Singletary ever starts for this team, there are problems, but I think spending this money on handcuffs would have been more valuable.
Grade: A

Gutman
State Trooper: Hey, Doc! We're looking for a prisoner from that bus-train wreck a couple of hours ago, might be hurt.
Dr. Richard Kimble: Uh, what does he look like?
State Trooper: 6'1, 180, brown hair, brown eyes, beard. See anyone like that around?
Dr. Richard Kimble: Every time I look in the mirror, pal - except for the beard, of course!

Gutman would kill to be 6'1", but everything else checks out, and I'm really hurting for quotes here. Gut's team looked great after the draft, a definite playoff team. Then the Etienne injury happened and now the RB2 situation is at a Barnardian level. But for purposes of this post, I liked the team that was drafted. Too bad we'll never see it take the field.
Best Pick: Aaron Jones for $54. There's a theme here that the top RBs tended to be values and Jones is no different. It was mandatory to grab AJ Dillon though, so that hurts.
Worst Pick: Terry McLaurin for $37. Easy to say in hindsight, but after already having Diggs in the bag, going relatively big again at WR left you thin at RB and vulnerable to an injury :( 
Grade: A-

Levine
Sheriff Rawlins: Okay boys, gather around here and listen up. We're shuttin' it down, Wyatt Earp's here to mop up.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That's funny. "Wyatt Earp."

Every year we watch Levine sit back and draft 10 startable players when no one has any money left, and every year we say that someone else should try to compete with him. Esco sometimes tries it, but he spent more on his core this year, so that left me trying to compete with Wyatt Fuckin Earp. As previously mentioned, I don't think I was totally effective, but I also think I weakened Levine in the process. His team is still super deep, but outside of Lamar, Ekeler, and ARob, this is not an intimidating roster. Could this be the rare down year for Levine?
Best Pick: Myles Gaskin for $15. At the time, it was not clear that Gaskin was RB1 in Miami, but even then, he was worth $20. If we draft again today, I think he'd go for closer to $30.
Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks for $12.  You never want to be in a bidding war for a Texans player, yet both Levine and Barnard got themselves in this situation.
Grade: B

Weissbard
Cosmo Renfro: When I die, I wanna come back just like you.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Oh, you mean happy and handsome?

If anyone can talk shit this season it's Weissbard, who owns two of the last three Stevens Bowls. I highly doubt he will make it three in four, but a potentially healthy CMC could have something to say about that. I've mentioned several times that WR was crazy deep this year, so going big on RB was the best way to have a complete team, and Weiss leaned into that. He still has a solid selection of receivers to choose from, so while his lineup decisions may be tough, it's better than dealing with the RB2 situation that a lot of the league has. First trade prediction: After Chubb gets hurt, Gutman trades Stefon Diggs to Weissbard for Kareem Hunt.
Best Pick: Kareem Hunt for $16. Flex-worthy when Chubb is healthy, RB1 when Chubb is hurt. Would be RB2 for at least four teams in this league.
Worst Pick: Justin Herbert for $8. I know the 2QB strategy worked last year, but those $8 could have upgraded JuJu to Aiyuk, Diontae, or Higgins. That plus I think Herbert is Carson Wentz 2.0.
Grade: B+

Overall Grades:
AGD: A
Marco: A-
Gutman: A-
Weissbard: B+
Mejia: B+
Zacherman: B+
Kumpf: B+
Esco: B+
Levine: B
Alan: B
Billy: B
Nick: C
Barnard: C-
Ajay: D

Based on these predictions, it's AGD over Marco in the Stevens Bowl. We all know Marco will make trades, and Gutman/Esco have already fallen off due to injuries, but overall I liked the draft that most of the league had.

Rivalry Week 1 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
Weissbard over Esco
AGD over Billy
Marco over Gutman
Mejia over Nick
Zacherman over Ajay
Levine over Alan

Matchup of the Week: Gutman vs. Marco
The only divisional matchup of Week 1 gets this honor by default, though I don't think it will be too dramatic. These lineups look pretty even across the board, both in terms of talent as well as matchups, but when you get to RB2 there's a definite record scratch. Hilariously, both teams are starting Seattle RBs. Less hilarious for Gutman, he's the one starting Rashaad Penny. There's a better chance of Penny tearing his ACL than turning into an actual startable RB, so this starts Marco's march to the Stevens Bowl.
Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 0-0