We finally made it to the last week of the regular season, and while there isn't the heightened drama that we usually get in this league, plenty of teams still have reasons to compete. Whether it's for a bye, playoff spot, avoiding the pre-draft shots, or simply to win the elevated Week 13 prize, this is the last week that all 14 teams will be actively competing. Rather than go through the usual sections in this space, I'm going to go team-by-team and outline the potential scenarios they face this week. Teams listed in order of playoff seeding if the season ended today, with one exception.
1. Zacherman
Clinched playoffs and first round bye. He can clinch the regular season prize with a win over Esco, with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco loss to Levine, or with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco win over Levine where Marco doesn't outscore him by over 115. TLDR, Zacherman clinched the #1 seed.
2. Marco
Clinched playoffs. He can clinch a first round bye with a win over Levine, with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf loss to Barnard, or with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf win over Barnard where Kumpf doesn't outscore him by over 61. He can also take over the #1 seed if he beats Levine, Zacherman loses to Esco, and he outscores Z by over 115. TLDR, Marco clinched the #2 seed.
3. Kumpf
Clinched playoffs. I can take over the #2 seed if I beat Barnard, Marco loses to Levine, and I outscores Marco by over 61. Otherwise, I clinch the #3 seed with a win. If I lose to Barnard and Levine beats Marco, I fall to the #4 seed. I cannot fall further than that.
4. Levine
Due to his huge lead over all the other contenders in points scored, Levine has clinched the playoffs. If he beats Marco and Kumpf loses to Barnard, he gets the #3 seed. If he beats Marco and Kumpf beats Barnard, he gets the #4 seed. If he loses to Marco and Bennett beats Gutman, he gets the #5 seed. He can't fall further than that.
6. Esco
I'm going out of order here, because Esco has clinched the playoffs in a similar way that Levine has. Despite potentially (and because he's facing Z, probably) finishing at 6-7, Esco has close to a 100 point lead on the next three teams, so he has clinched at least the #6 seed and at best the #5 seed. If he beats Zacherman and Bennett loses to Gutman, he gets the #5 seed, otherwise he gets the #6 seed.
This is where it gets interesting. Thanks to Bennett's free-fall and relatively low point total, the following three teams could all potentially qualify for the final playoff spot.
5. Bennett
No one took him seriously at 7-1, but a 4-game losing streak (and a questionable 0.5 point win over me earlier in the season), has exposed this team for the fraud that it is. If Bennett beats Gutman this week, he clinches the #5 seed and that's that. Even if he loses to Gutman and Esco loses to Zacherman, Bennett still wins BAM's horrible division and clinches the #5 seed. However, if he loses to Gutman, and Esco beats Zacherman, things get interesting. If Bennett loses to Gutman by more than 7.4, Gutman passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. If Bennett loses to Gutman by less than 7.4, but Alan beats Reap and outscores Bennett by 21.8, then Alan passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. This is the single most important team in Week 13.
7. Gutman
Against all odds, he's still in this thing. Odds aren't great however and if he loses to Bennett or Zacherman beats Esco, he's immediately eliminated. But if Esco beats Zacherman, Gutman beats Bennett by more than 7.4, and Alan does not beat Reap while outscoring Gutman by 14.4, then Gutman improbably clinches the #5 seed.
8. Alan
Our defending champion is somehow still alive for his third Stevens Bowl title. Alan has chugged along at around .500 all year, and I guess I just never really considered him as a team that could compete for a playoff spot. But just like herpes, he is flaring up at a very inopportune time for Bennett and Gutman. Similar to Gutman, he can be immediately eliminated if he loses to Reap or Zacherman beats Esco. But if Esco beats Zacherman, and Alan beats Reap while outscoring the winner of the Bennett/Gutman matchup by either 21.8 (Bennnett) or 14.4 (Gutman), then the groom-to-be will get a shot to defend his title.
9. Reap
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Reap's only reason to compete is to play spoiler for Alan.
10. Ajay
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Ajay's only reason to compete is to help force Belfer into last place.
11. Barnard
Eliminated from the playoffs. He currently has an 81-point lead on Weissbard, so I'm going to go ahead and say he's clear from last place. He can't even spoil my playoff spot, so he can spend the weekend sweeping up cocks.
12. Belfer
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 42.1-point lead on Weissbard, so technically he's not clear from last place. If he beats Ajay or Weissbard loses to BAM, he's clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Ajay and Weissbard beats BAM while outscoring him by 42.1, along with BAM outscoring him by 14.6.
13. BAM
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 27.5 point lead on Weissbard, so he's still in danger of ending up in last place. If he beats Weissbard, he's clear. If he loses to Weissbard and Belfer loses to Ajay, but he outscores Belfer by 14.6, he's also clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Weissbard by 27.5 while not outscoring a losing Belfer team by 14.6.
14. Weissbard
Eliminated from the playoffs and very likely in last place. His situation is simple, he needs to beat BAM by at least 27.5, otherwise he takes the pre-draft shots next year.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - The Landlord Bowl
As much as Weissbard probably wants the Toilet Bowl in this space, the biggest playoff implications reside in our nation's capital. I've discussed the impact of this matchup above, so now it's time to break it down. Gutman made some big waiver moves this week, picking up the dynamic duo of Jalen Richard and Byron Marshall, but his squad is still severely undermanned. Bennett gets to lead off with Dak and Perine on TNF, which could mean anything from 10-30 points, and will set the tone for the week. The individual matchups clearly favor Bennett throughout, but JuJu presents an interesting wild card on MNF. If he completely misses the game, Gut could be left with no options to start (note to Gutman, not picking up Martavis last week is almost as bad as trading Thielen for McGuire). However, if JuJu plays, he has a potential 25 point week in him at all times. As much as I'm tempted to make things interesting and pick Gutman, Bennett should win by 40+.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 7-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 13 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 99th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bears (-3) vs. 49ers
Texans (+7) at Titans
Vikings (+3) at Falcons
Saints (-4) vs. Panthers
Last Week: 0-3
2017 Record: 31-22
NCAA Week 14 Bets
For the remainder of the college season, I'll be betting on all the major conference championship games, and each bowl game. This week is all on the dogs.
Stanford (+4) vs. USC
Memphis (+7) vs. Central Florida
TCU (+8) vs. Oklahoma
Georgia (+3) vs. Auburn
Wisconsin (+6) vs. Ohio State
Miami (+10) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 0-0
2017 Record: 27-21-4
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Quick Week 12 Preview
Finally back in the USA, and wanted to get out something quick for posterity about Week 12. Enjoy the weekly sections below as your nurse your collective hangovers and get ready for the final set of games today and tomorrow night.
Playoff Odds
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12
After all the discussion about changing the playoff qualifications this year, we officially have our most boring playoff races ever. There are 6 teams over .500, and the "worst" two of those six by record are both top 4 scoring teams. I'm pretty sure that the playoff teams (not seeds) are set already, but I guess theoretically Gutman, Alan, and Reap are still alive if they win out and get a shit ton of help to win their divisions. The biggest drama is around who gets the byes. Zacherman looks to have one locked up, but there could be close races between the other 5 top teams depending on the next two weeks. I'm really grasping at straws for drama here, as even the weekly low score/Christmas card was locked up months ago.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Kumpf
4. Bennett
5. Levine
6. Esco
Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - Zacherman vs. Bennett
Obviously with three games played already, I have a bit of an advantage in making this pick, so I went with the only matchup of playoff teams, as well as one where Z could clinch a bye. Bennett got a nice performance from potential waiver pickup of the year Samaje Perine, but that was offset by Dak continuing to fall off a cliff. Zacherman started off fine, but his previously dominant team is starting Mike Wallace, and one of Matt Forte/Brandon LaFell/Zay Jones. I think Z wins it, but Bennett keeps it close enough that Wallace needs to show up on MNF.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 12 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 67th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bucs (+10) at Falcons
Jaguars (-5) at Cardinals
Saints (+2) at Rams
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 31-19
NCAA Week 13 Bets
Already missed the NCAA bets but nothing important happened this week, right?
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 27-21-4
Playoff Odds
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12
After all the discussion about changing the playoff qualifications this year, we officially have our most boring playoff races ever. There are 6 teams over .500, and the "worst" two of those six by record are both top 4 scoring teams. I'm pretty sure that the playoff teams (not seeds) are set already, but I guess theoretically Gutman, Alan, and Reap are still alive if they win out and get a shit ton of help to win their divisions. The biggest drama is around who gets the byes. Zacherman looks to have one locked up, but there could be close races between the other 5 top teams depending on the next two weeks. I'm really grasping at straws for drama here, as even the weekly low score/Christmas card was locked up months ago.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Kumpf
4. Bennett
5. Levine
6. Esco
Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - Zacherman vs. Bennett
Obviously with three games played already, I have a bit of an advantage in making this pick, so I went with the only matchup of playoff teams, as well as one where Z could clinch a bye. Bennett got a nice performance from potential waiver pickup of the year Samaje Perine, but that was offset by Dak continuing to fall off a cliff. Zacherman started off fine, but his previously dominant team is starting Mike Wallace, and one of Matt Forte/Brandon LaFell/Zay Jones. I think Z wins it, but Bennett keeps it close enough that Wallace needs to show up on MNF.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 12 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 67th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bucs (+10) at Falcons
Jaguars (-5) at Cardinals
Saints (+2) at Rams
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 31-19
NCAA Week 13 Bets
Already missed the NCAA bets but nothing important happened this week, right?
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 27-21-4
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Week 10 Recap
There are only three weeks left in the regular season, the trade deadline has passed, and for a few teams (including myself), any loss could be the one that forces you to miss the playoffs. So naturally, I'm going to Peru for the next week and will be mostly off the grid. I'm hoping that the mystical powers of Machu Picchu will magically give the Patriots' RB situation some clarity and turn Jordy Nelson back into a fantasy relevant receiver, but more likely I'll end up starting a guy who's injured because I have no internet access.
Regardless, no post next week, so let me be the first to say Happy Thanksgiving.
Playoff Odds
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
The playoff picture looks pretty set right now, but there's still a sliver of room for party crashers. Based on recent history, Zacherman, Bennett and Marco are all in, while it would take a collapse for Esco and me to miss out. And with the new playoff rules this year, it's basically impossible for Levine to not get at least the 6th seed.
On the flip side, Reap and Alan suffered crushing losses that puts them in the historically eliminated group with Weissbard, BAM, Barnard and Belfer.
That leaves Gutman and Ajay as potential party crashers. Gutman's team has had an absurd roller coaster ride, but it may have finally crashed thanks to Cam on MNF. He's still technically in the division race, but his slate includes Z and Bennett, while Levine and especially me have much easier schedules. The NiJo rule is probably Gutman's best option, but that would require passing multiple top 6 teams in points, or making up 2 games on Bennett, all while Levine takes over the division lead. As for Ajay, his only chance is for Wild Card chaos, because he's unlikely to make up the necessary ground points wise. Both of these teams should be rooting for Levine to win each week (though Ajay plays him still), Bennett to lose, and the Kumpf/Marco/Esco trio to put up low point totals.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Bennett
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine (137.4 points above Gutman)
Team of the Week - Marco
Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, Marco is finally stuck with the team he's with. He may have set a FALAFEL record with 5 trades, and those moves took a team that look doomed on draft day to one that's aiming for a bye. By taking down Bennett, led by Adam "I'm on a revenge tour after being traded straight up for Elijah McGuire" Thielen, Marco has all but clinched a playoff spot. Even if his final three games include Levine and Esco, he can afford to drop both those games and hold onto his spot.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Garrett Celek over the rest of the Waiver TEs
No close games this week, so I'll pat myself on the back for picking up the backup TE on a winless team and seeing him put up 14.7 points.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman trading Adam Thielen straight up for Elijah McGuire
Again, no close games, but if Gutman started Thielen over Corey Davis, he would have saved his season. This is bar none the worst trade of all time.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman nearly got the high score without Zeke
His entire team hits double figures pretty much every week, and when you take down his best player, guys like Sterling Shephard rise from the ashes. Levine found his mojo again this week, but Z might still be favored without Zeke if they meet in the Stevens Bowl.
Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Battle of Casas Grandes
After finally getting my record here back to .500 after the Crows Nest Bowl, we head south of the border for this week's big game. The Battle of Casas Grandes was apparently a big battle in the Mexican revolution, but in this case, Esco and Marco are battling to get a bye. Unfortunately for Esco, things are leaning pretty heavilty in Marco's favor. New acquisition Matty Ice gets the Seahawks in Seattle, and Tevin Coleman will start with Freeman hurt, negating any advantage there. Even a big Tyreek game will be offset somewhat by Marco's Alex Smith. Honestly, Marco's team looks like it's set up specifically to fuck Esco over this week, which is impressive. I'd bet the house on Marco. #ReverseTheKurse
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 11 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 47th out of 17,106: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+2) vs. Ravens
Jaguars (-7) at Browns
Saints (-8) vs. Redskins
Texans (-2) vs. Cardinals
Patriots (-7) at Oakland (in Mexico City)
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 28-17
NCAA Week 12 Bets
Wisconsin (-7) vs. Michigan
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt (+9) vs. Missouri
UCLA (+16) at USC
Last Week: 4-1-1
2017 Record: 24-19-4
Regardless, no post next week, so let me be the first to say Happy Thanksgiving.
Playoff Odds
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11
The playoff picture looks pretty set right now, but there's still a sliver of room for party crashers. Based on recent history, Zacherman, Bennett and Marco are all in, while it would take a collapse for Esco and me to miss out. And with the new playoff rules this year, it's basically impossible for Levine to not get at least the 6th seed.
On the flip side, Reap and Alan suffered crushing losses that puts them in the historically eliminated group with Weissbard, BAM, Barnard and Belfer.
That leaves Gutman and Ajay as potential party crashers. Gutman's team has had an absurd roller coaster ride, but it may have finally crashed thanks to Cam on MNF. He's still technically in the division race, but his slate includes Z and Bennett, while Levine and especially me have much easier schedules. The NiJo rule is probably Gutman's best option, but that would require passing multiple top 6 teams in points, or making up 2 games on Bennett, all while Levine takes over the division lead. As for Ajay, his only chance is for Wild Card chaos, because he's unlikely to make up the necessary ground points wise. Both of these teams should be rooting for Levine to win each week (though Ajay plays him still), Bennett to lose, and the Kumpf/Marco/Esco trio to put up low point totals.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Bennett
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine (137.4 points above Gutman)
Team of the Week - Marco
Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, Marco is finally stuck with the team he's with. He may have set a FALAFEL record with 5 trades, and those moves took a team that look doomed on draft day to one that's aiming for a bye. By taking down Bennett, led by Adam "I'm on a revenge tour after being traded straight up for Elijah McGuire" Thielen, Marco has all but clinched a playoff spot. Even if his final three games include Levine and Esco, he can afford to drop both those games and hold onto his spot.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Garrett Celek over the rest of the Waiver TEs
No close games this week, so I'll pat myself on the back for picking up the backup TE on a winless team and seeing him put up 14.7 points.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman trading Adam Thielen straight up for Elijah McGuire
Again, no close games, but if Gutman started Thielen over Corey Davis, he would have saved his season. This is bar none the worst trade of all time.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman nearly got the high score without Zeke
His entire team hits double figures pretty much every week, and when you take down his best player, guys like Sterling Shephard rise from the ashes. Levine found his mojo again this week, but Z might still be favored without Zeke if they meet in the Stevens Bowl.
Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Battle of Casas Grandes
After finally getting my record here back to .500 after the Crows Nest Bowl, we head south of the border for this week's big game. The Battle of Casas Grandes was apparently a big battle in the Mexican revolution, but in this case, Esco and Marco are battling to get a bye. Unfortunately for Esco, things are leaning pretty heavilty in Marco's favor. New acquisition Matty Ice gets the Seahawks in Seattle, and Tevin Coleman will start with Freeman hurt, negating any advantage there. Even a big Tyreek game will be offset somewhat by Marco's Alex Smith. Honestly, Marco's team looks like it's set up specifically to fuck Esco over this week, which is impressive. I'd bet the house on Marco. #ReverseTheKurse
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 11 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 47th out of 17,106: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+2) vs. Ravens
Jaguars (-7) at Browns
Saints (-8) vs. Redskins
Texans (-2) vs. Cardinals
Patriots (-7) at Oakland (in Mexico City)
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 28-17
NCAA Week 12 Bets
Wisconsin (-7) vs. Michigan
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt (+9) vs. Missouri
UCLA (+16) at USC
Last Week: 4-1-1
2017 Record: 24-19-4
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Week 9 Recap/Trade Deadline Preview
With the fantasy trade deadline looming next week, it's time for my favorite post of the year: The Trade Deadline Preview! As in years past, I'll do my best to concoct 7 trades that are as win-win as possible. I don't think any of my suggestions have ever actually occurred, but it hopefully gets everyone talking as rosters finalize before the playoff run.
Real Trade 1
Barnard receives James White and Vernon Davis
Marco receives Marcus Mariota and Steelers D/ST
We can start off with a real trade! Marco using trades as his waiver wire will never cease to be hilarious, but he did well here. Mariota and Smith is a solid QB combo, and Pittsburgh is a definite upgrade over the Chiefs deteriorating defense. Barnard's motivation outside of just getting rid of his unnecessary second QB and bringing in a Patriot is suspect, but White should at least be in the mix to start for him. It's still absurd that he couldn't get better for Mariota at any point this year.
Barnard Grade: B-
Marco Grade: B
Real Trade 2
Esco receives Jordan Matthews
Reap receives Theo Riddick
Esco's pathetic trade plea paid immediate dividends for Reap. I mentioned Esco's unbalanced roster below, so it makes sense that he would take a hit in any RB-for-WR trade. That said, it might have made sense to trade for a player with any upside, of which Matthews has none. On the Reap side, he flipped a guy he would never start to a flex-worthy RB (especially this week).
Esco Grade: C-
Reap Grade: B+
Real Trade 3
Weissbard receives Matt Breida
Marco receives Josh Doctson
Pretty uneventful deal here, but I'm committed to grading them all. Weissbard gets Hyde's handcuff, so his motivation is clear. As for Marco, this reeks of a homer pick, as I can't see him starting Doctson over his top three WRs, but I guess it balances his roster? Marco gets the better player, but Weissbard's team benefits more, if that makes sense.
Weissbard Grade: B
Marco Grade: B-
Real Trade 4
Ajay receives Ravens D/ST
Kumpf receives Jared Cook
Another TE/DST trade! Marco's mentality has been contagious as we've hit a solid 12 trades this year. The only teams who haven't made a trade are Z (who no one wants to deal with) and the BAM/BMO duos (who are impossible to deal with). As for this move, Ajay wasn't starting Cook over Graham, and I wasn't starting the Ravens over the Jags, so it's an easy win-win. If Ajay makes the playoffs he gets some nice matchups, and if Reed comes back at full strength then Cook is extraneous, but for now I don't see a loser.
Ajay Grade: B+
Kumpf Grade: B+
Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell and Jordy Nelson
Kumpf receives Gio Bernard and Travis Kelce
Bennett and I can balance each others' rosters with a fairly simple move. Bennett can move away from flexing a TE, and add to his overall depth, while I get Reed insurance while handcuffing Bro Mixon.
Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Jared Goff, Wendell, Smallwood, Randall Cobb, and Zach Ertz
Gutman receives Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, Nelson Agholor, and Ed Dickson
Ertz is really the only stud asset that Gutman has, so using him as a way to improve at RB and WR is really the only move he has left to salvage his season. As for Weissbard, maybe he can flip Ertz to Bennett for a huge mark up? It's shocking how bad these two rosters are.
Mock Trade 3
Alan receives Duke Johnson and Damien Williams
Esco receives Devin Funchess and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Esco has one of the weirdest rosters in the league, with a shit ton of RBs and literally 2 WRs. This helps him balance out, and gives a slight upgrade from Tyler Kroft at TE. Alan's RB situation is in dire straits, but getting two receiving backs will at least give him more options to start, without really hurting the rest of his roster too much.
Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives T.Y. Hilton
BAM receives Derrick Henry
This is a straight up challenge trade. Both teams have next to no hope this year, so they need to try to shake things up. Ajay gets to bet on Hilton's upside, even if it's betting big on Jake Brisket as well. BAM gets Murray insurance, with the possibility of starting both Titans RBs against the right matchup. I don't love this trade in general, but I also don't love either of these teams.
Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and Alshon Jeffrey
Reap receives Melvin Gordon and Julio Jones
This is by far my favorite trade. The former duo making a crazy blockbuster with each other. There's not too much analysis here, but Reap already has Melvin's handcuff, and has spoken ill about Fournette's attitude. It likely won't have any effect on the playoff picture, but I think it needs to happen.
Mock Trade 6
Zacherman receives Doug Martin
Levine receives Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Hogan
The final mock trade is between our clear favorites, a la the Kyrie trade. Levine has assembled an extremely deep team, but has some question marks at receiver now that Watson is done and Kelvin has to learn a new offense. This would allow him to get some clarity at WR, and obviously bets that Zeke can come back at some point. For Zacherman, he gets to maintain his three-headed monster at RB without worrying about suspension. It hurts him at WR, but I don't think he was relying too heavily on Hogan to begin with.
Playoff Odds
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
Last week was supposed to be the week of delineation. Gutman, Esco and I had the chance to make a playoff push, while Barnard, Reap, Alan, and Ajay could have all been eliminated. Things didn't go according to plan, and if it wasn't for an absurd late screen pass to Theo Riddick on MNF, all of the 5-3 teams would have lost and all of the 3-5 teams would have won. As it stands, things are a little bit less clear this week, but the guillotine still looms over the 4-5 teams, while the 5-4 teams can set themselves up nicely. This will be explored more in the Matchup of the Week.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Team of the Week - Ajay
It's increasingly hard not to give this to Zacherman every week, but for the sake of narrative, Ajay did us all a favor this week. If he didn't win this week, Bennett would have been the first team in FALAFEL history to start 8-1, which is completely unacceptable. He got the win thanks to McCaffrey's first rushing TD, along with a solid performance from waiver wire pickup Kenyan Drake, so it was a respectable performance overall. But mainly, he beat Bennett and that earns him this honor.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Tyrod Taylor over Matt Stafford
No one made a good decision that actually won a matchup this week (Esco and BAM won close matchups despite some absolutely horrible lineup management), but if I had not been a pussy and kept Marvin Jones in over Jordy Nelson, Belfer making this decision would have won him the week. Silver linings in a lost season for Belf.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard started LeGarrette Blount over Jeremy Maclin and Mohamed Sanu
Between this starting lineup and the trade with Gutman last week, it's almost like Barnard doesn't think that Blount is being phased out in Philly. Honorable mention to Bennett starting Gio over Fat Rob after winning Best Lineup Decision of the Week for doing literally the exact opposite last week. If he had any risk of missing the playoffs, this would be an all-time mistake, but instead we need to punish Barnard.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Levine Shits The Bed
Zacherman's team has looked unstoppable for weeks now, but his best player has a looming suspension that would officially knock him out for the season if it comes this year. That made Levine the favorite in my mind, as his team could take multiple hits and still come out looking solid. That changed this week, as his team looked vulnerable for the first time this year. Is this season now wide open? Probably not, but it's good to see that the #AnyGivenSunday rule still applies.
Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - The Crow's Nest Bowl
Alan's (STILL UNNAMED!) division has been absurd this year, and the two mediocre teams at the top of it finally get to face off this week. Levine looms large behind us, but the winner of this matchup is guaranteed to have a lead over him heading into the final three weeks of the season, making this a potential elimination game. Gutman is somehow killed by byes once again, losing Ertz for the week, while I'm down Crabtree to a bye and Jordan Reed to his usual injured self. Both of us are leaning heavily on the Lions against Cleveland, but while I have their RB and WR, Gutman has their backup TE an D/ST. That pretty much sums up this matchup. I'll #Kurse myself, but hopefully I get back to .500 on the year in these picks, while simultaneously punching my playoff ticket.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 10 Bets
My method for picking NFL games typically assigns a confidence rating to each game, and pick any game where I'm more than 60% confident. Luckily, 538 has a pick'em contest this year where you get to pick every game based on confidence (no spread, just to win). You get points for picking correctly, but you're penalized twice as much for wrong picks, so just going with 100% for each game is a bad strategy. Through 9 weeks, I'm in 94th place out of over 16,000 people: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Having said that, I hate the lines this week.
Lions (-13) vs. Browns
Jaguars (-4) vs. Chargers
Saints (-3) at Bills
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 26-15
NCAA Week 11 Bets
North Carolina (+10) at Pittsburgh
Rutgers (+31) at Penn State
Wake Forest (+1) at Syracuse
West Virginia (+3) at Kansas State
Colorado (+14) vs. USC
TCU (+7) at Oklahoma
Last Week: 1-1
2017 Record: 20-18-3
Real Trade 1
Barnard receives James White and Vernon Davis
Marco receives Marcus Mariota and Steelers D/ST
We can start off with a real trade! Marco using trades as his waiver wire will never cease to be hilarious, but he did well here. Mariota and Smith is a solid QB combo, and Pittsburgh is a definite upgrade over the Chiefs deteriorating defense. Barnard's motivation outside of just getting rid of his unnecessary second QB and bringing in a Patriot is suspect, but White should at least be in the mix to start for him. It's still absurd that he couldn't get better for Mariota at any point this year.
Barnard Grade: B-
Marco Grade: B
Real Trade 2
Esco receives Jordan Matthews
Reap receives Theo Riddick
Esco's pathetic trade plea paid immediate dividends for Reap. I mentioned Esco's unbalanced roster below, so it makes sense that he would take a hit in any RB-for-WR trade. That said, it might have made sense to trade for a player with any upside, of which Matthews has none. On the Reap side, he flipped a guy he would never start to a flex-worthy RB (especially this week).
Esco Grade: C-
Reap Grade: B+
Real Trade 3
Weissbard receives Matt Breida
Marco receives Josh Doctson
Pretty uneventful deal here, but I'm committed to grading them all. Weissbard gets Hyde's handcuff, so his motivation is clear. As for Marco, this reeks of a homer pick, as I can't see him starting Doctson over his top three WRs, but I guess it balances his roster? Marco gets the better player, but Weissbard's team benefits more, if that makes sense.
Weissbard Grade: B
Marco Grade: B-
Real Trade 4
Ajay receives Ravens D/ST
Kumpf receives Jared Cook
Another TE/DST trade! Marco's mentality has been contagious as we've hit a solid 12 trades this year. The only teams who haven't made a trade are Z (who no one wants to deal with) and the BAM/BMO duos (who are impossible to deal with). As for this move, Ajay wasn't starting Cook over Graham, and I wasn't starting the Ravens over the Jags, so it's an easy win-win. If Ajay makes the playoffs he gets some nice matchups, and if Reed comes back at full strength then Cook is extraneous, but for now I don't see a loser.
Ajay Grade: B+
Kumpf Grade: B+
Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell and Jordy Nelson
Kumpf receives Gio Bernard and Travis Kelce
Bennett and I can balance each others' rosters with a fairly simple move. Bennett can move away from flexing a TE, and add to his overall depth, while I get Reed insurance while handcuffing Bro Mixon.
Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Jared Goff, Wendell, Smallwood, Randall Cobb, and Zach Ertz
Gutman receives Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, Nelson Agholor, and Ed Dickson
Ertz is really the only stud asset that Gutman has, so using him as a way to improve at RB and WR is really the only move he has left to salvage his season. As for Weissbard, maybe he can flip Ertz to Bennett for a huge mark up? It's shocking how bad these two rosters are.
Mock Trade 3
Alan receives Duke Johnson and Damien Williams
Esco receives Devin Funchess and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Esco has one of the weirdest rosters in the league, with a shit ton of RBs and literally 2 WRs. This helps him balance out, and gives a slight upgrade from Tyler Kroft at TE. Alan's RB situation is in dire straits, but getting two receiving backs will at least give him more options to start, without really hurting the rest of his roster too much.
Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives T.Y. Hilton
BAM receives Derrick Henry
This is a straight up challenge trade. Both teams have next to no hope this year, so they need to try to shake things up. Ajay gets to bet on Hilton's upside, even if it's betting big on Jake Brisket as well. BAM gets Murray insurance, with the possibility of starting both Titans RBs against the right matchup. I don't love this trade in general, but I also don't love either of these teams.
Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and Alshon Jeffrey
Reap receives Melvin Gordon and Julio Jones
This is by far my favorite trade. The former duo making a crazy blockbuster with each other. There's not too much analysis here, but Reap already has Melvin's handcuff, and has spoken ill about Fournette's attitude. It likely won't have any effect on the playoff picture, but I think it needs to happen.
Mock Trade 6
Zacherman receives Doug Martin
Levine receives Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Hogan
The final mock trade is between our clear favorites, a la the Kyrie trade. Levine has assembled an extremely deep team, but has some question marks at receiver now that Watson is done and Kelvin has to learn a new offense. This would allow him to get some clarity at WR, and obviously bets that Zeke can come back at some point. For Zacherman, he gets to maintain his three-headed monster at RB without worrying about suspension. It hurts him at WR, but I don't think he was relying too heavily on Hogan to begin with.
Playoff Odds
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10
Last week was supposed to be the week of delineation. Gutman, Esco and I had the chance to make a playoff push, while Barnard, Reap, Alan, and Ajay could have all been eliminated. Things didn't go according to plan, and if it wasn't for an absurd late screen pass to Theo Riddick on MNF, all of the 5-3 teams would have lost and all of the 3-5 teams would have won. As it stands, things are a little bit less clear this week, but the guillotine still looms over the 4-5 teams, while the 5-4 teams can set themselves up nicely. This will be explored more in the Matchup of the Week.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Team of the Week - Ajay
It's increasingly hard not to give this to Zacherman every week, but for the sake of narrative, Ajay did us all a favor this week. If he didn't win this week, Bennett would have been the first team in FALAFEL history to start 8-1, which is completely unacceptable. He got the win thanks to McCaffrey's first rushing TD, along with a solid performance from waiver wire pickup Kenyan Drake, so it was a respectable performance overall. But mainly, he beat Bennett and that earns him this honor.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Tyrod Taylor over Matt Stafford
No one made a good decision that actually won a matchup this week (Esco and BAM won close matchups despite some absolutely horrible lineup management), but if I had not been a pussy and kept Marvin Jones in over Jordy Nelson, Belfer making this decision would have won him the week. Silver linings in a lost season for Belf.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard started LeGarrette Blount over Jeremy Maclin and Mohamed Sanu
Between this starting lineup and the trade with Gutman last week, it's almost like Barnard doesn't think that Blount is being phased out in Philly. Honorable mention to Bennett starting Gio over Fat Rob after winning Best Lineup Decision of the Week for doing literally the exact opposite last week. If he had any risk of missing the playoffs, this would be an all-time mistake, but instead we need to punish Barnard.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Levine Shits The Bed
Zacherman's team has looked unstoppable for weeks now, but his best player has a looming suspension that would officially knock him out for the season if it comes this year. That made Levine the favorite in my mind, as his team could take multiple hits and still come out looking solid. That changed this week, as his team looked vulnerable for the first time this year. Is this season now wide open? Probably not, but it's good to see that the #AnyGivenSunday rule still applies.
Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - The Crow's Nest Bowl
Alan's (STILL UNNAMED!) division has been absurd this year, and the two mediocre teams at the top of it finally get to face off this week. Levine looms large behind us, but the winner of this matchup is guaranteed to have a lead over him heading into the final three weeks of the season, making this a potential elimination game. Gutman is somehow killed by byes once again, losing Ertz for the week, while I'm down Crabtree to a bye and Jordan Reed to his usual injured self. Both of us are leaning heavily on the Lions against Cleveland, but while I have their RB and WR, Gutman has their backup TE an D/ST. That pretty much sums up this matchup. I'll #Kurse myself, but hopefully I get back to .500 on the year in these picks, while simultaneously punching my playoff ticket.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 10 Bets
My method for picking NFL games typically assigns a confidence rating to each game, and pick any game where I'm more than 60% confident. Luckily, 538 has a pick'em contest this year where you get to pick every game based on confidence (no spread, just to win). You get points for picking correctly, but you're penalized twice as much for wrong picks, so just going with 100% for each game is a bad strategy. Through 9 weeks, I'm in 94th place out of over 16,000 people: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Having said that, I hate the lines this week.
Lions (-13) vs. Browns
Jaguars (-4) vs. Chargers
Saints (-3) at Bills
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 26-15
NCAA Week 11 Bets
North Carolina (+10) at Pittsburgh
Rutgers (+31) at Penn State
Wake Forest (+1) at Syracuse
West Virginia (+3) at Kansas State
Colorado (+14) vs. USC
TCU (+7) at Oklahoma
Last Week: 1-1
2017 Record: 20-18-3
Thursday, November 2, 2017
Week 8 Recap
We've somehow gone from a league where literally everyone was at .500 after 4 weeks to a league with only one team at .500 after 8 weeks, and that team is one of our two dominant teams so far. It's been a weird year in both real and fake football, and this league is no exception, as you'll see below.
Also, Alan has still not named his division or renamed his team.
Playoff Odds
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
I did a double take when I saw the massive drop-off from 6-3 to 5-4, but this apparently is the week where the top teams really separate themselves. So for Esco, Gutman and myself, we'll learn a lot about our collective fates. Luckily, we all play teams below .500, but with three teams above us, and Levine all but locking up the 6th seed, there's only room for two of us in the playoffs. On the flip side, BAM and Weissbard have joined Belfer as being historically eliminated. This week, they can be joined by Alan, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap. This is truly a league of have's and have not's, and unless Esco can rally, it looks like we're likely to have a first-time champ.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Marco
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Barnard receives Amari Cooper and Mohamed Sanu
Gutman receives CJ Anderson and Randall Cobb
Despite the relatively big names involved here, this trade doesn't really move the needle much for either team. It's interesting that Barnard saw Blount become irrelevant and immediately decided "I should trade away a running back." If anything, this gives Gutman a shot at maintaining his playoff spot, but that's putting a lot of faith in both CJ and JuJu. Otherwise, a whole lot of meh.
Barnard Grade: C
Gutman Grade: B-
Trade Recap
Esco receives Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, and D'Onta Foreman
Weissbard recieves Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, and Davante Adams
Verrrry interesting trade here. Esco was held over a barrel with Watson's injury, but actually made out okay here. Esco clearly benefits by gaining a startable QB, but beyond that I think the value is debatable. Miller/Foreman are gonna see a big increase in volume, but that is likely offset by a decrease in quality. Regardless, I don't think they're appreciably worse as a weekly starter than Hyde, who's in a terrible situation as well. So a lot comes down to Adams. Similar to my trade for Jordy (which looks a lot better now that Garcon is out for the year), it remains to be seen how the Green Bay passing attack will look with a prepared Hundley. I have the luxury of only needing Jordy as a WR3, but Weiss also has nothing to lose. I like the trade better for Esco, but it's not a bad move for either team.
Esco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B
Team of the Week - Barnard
Everyone knows how much I despise giving Barnard praise, but putting together a competitive (let alone winning) roster with the amount of byes he had last week, was honestly impressive, even if it was against Alan. He lost any semblance of goodwill with his subsequent trade, but having the balls to start Travis Benjamin (who I honestly didn't know was still on the Chargers, and also did this) gives him the honor this week.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Fat Rob Kelley over Gio Bernard
This was honestly a great call. Even with losing his starting spot to Mixon, Gio was still facing a terrible Colts defense, and he's been respectable in the passing game at times as well. Instead, our shocking first place team went with Kelley coming off a rib injury in a game where they trailed the entire time, and it paid off. I still can't believe the standings when I look at them, but moves like this help explain.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Austin Sefarian-Jenkins over Jack Doyle
If our defending champ wanted any shot at repeating, he needed to take down a depleted Barnard squad. Instead, he couldn't even put up the 76 points necessary to do that, and it came down to his TE position. Not an obvious decision, but at 3-5, one that may have cost him his last shot at the playoffs.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Trades on Trades on Trades
This is obviously the most active NFL trade deadline of all time, so I'm hoping that trend applies to this league as well. The trade deadline is November 15th, so I'll have my annual trade suggestion post coming next week.
Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Zacherman vs. Marco
We got ourselves a showdown! This is a de facto championship game for the Blackouts and Jewheads division, and it comes with these teams at a crossroads. Marco has wheeled and dealed his way to a 6-2 record, but he has yet to play Z, Bennett, Esco and Levine. Zacherman has stayed with the team he drafted, and has outscored every team in the league by a wide margin, but looks to finally be losing Zeke. To make matters more complicated, these teams are also losing a combined 6 starters to bye weeks. After correctly picking Levine last week, I'm trying to get on a hot streak, but I really think any outcome here is possible. With that in mind, I'll take the team who's been stronger overall and go with Z.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Win Total Check-In
Cardinals Over 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Loss
Bears Over 5.5 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bengals Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Broncos Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Lions Under 8 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Texans Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Chargers Over 7.5 - On Pace for 6 - Loss
Rams Over 5.5 - On Pace for 11.4 - Win
Giants Under 9 - On Pace for 2.3 - Win
Raiders Under 10 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bucs Under 8.5 - On Pace for 4.6 - Win
Assumed Wins: Rams, Giants, Raiders, Bucs
Assumed Losses: Cardinals
The rest are toss ups at this point.
NFL Week 9 Bets
Bills (-3) at Jets
Jaguars (-5) vs. Bengals
Rams (-3) at Giants
Saints (-7) vs. Bucs
Eagles (-8) vs. Broncos
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 22-14
NCAA Week 10 Bets
Iowa State (+3) at West Virginia
Miami (+3) vs. Virginia Tech
Last Week: 6-1-1
2017 Record: 19-17-3
Also, Alan has still not named his division or renamed his team.
Playoff Odds
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9
I did a double take when I saw the massive drop-off from 6-3 to 5-4, but this apparently is the week where the top teams really separate themselves. So for Esco, Gutman and myself, we'll learn a lot about our collective fates. Luckily, we all play teams below .500, but with three teams above us, and Levine all but locking up the 6th seed, there's only room for two of us in the playoffs. On the flip side, BAM and Weissbard have joined Belfer as being historically eliminated. This week, they can be joined by Alan, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap. This is truly a league of have's and have not's, and unless Esco can rally, it looks like we're likely to have a first-time champ.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Marco
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Barnard receives Amari Cooper and Mohamed Sanu
Gutman receives CJ Anderson and Randall Cobb
Despite the relatively big names involved here, this trade doesn't really move the needle much for either team. It's interesting that Barnard saw Blount become irrelevant and immediately decided "I should trade away a running back." If anything, this gives Gutman a shot at maintaining his playoff spot, but that's putting a lot of faith in both CJ and JuJu. Otherwise, a whole lot of meh.
Barnard Grade: C
Gutman Grade: B-
Trade Recap
Esco receives Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, and D'Onta Foreman
Weissbard recieves Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, and Davante Adams
Verrrry interesting trade here. Esco was held over a barrel with Watson's injury, but actually made out okay here. Esco clearly benefits by gaining a startable QB, but beyond that I think the value is debatable. Miller/Foreman are gonna see a big increase in volume, but that is likely offset by a decrease in quality. Regardless, I don't think they're appreciably worse as a weekly starter than Hyde, who's in a terrible situation as well. So a lot comes down to Adams. Similar to my trade for Jordy (which looks a lot better now that Garcon is out for the year), it remains to be seen how the Green Bay passing attack will look with a prepared Hundley. I have the luxury of only needing Jordy as a WR3, but Weiss also has nothing to lose. I like the trade better for Esco, but it's not a bad move for either team.
Esco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B
Team of the Week - Barnard
Everyone knows how much I despise giving Barnard praise, but putting together a competitive (let alone winning) roster with the amount of byes he had last week, was honestly impressive, even if it was against Alan. He lost any semblance of goodwill with his subsequent trade, but having the balls to start Travis Benjamin (who I honestly didn't know was still on the Chargers, and also did this) gives him the honor this week.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Fat Rob Kelley over Gio Bernard
This was honestly a great call. Even with losing his starting spot to Mixon, Gio was still facing a terrible Colts defense, and he's been respectable in the passing game at times as well. Instead, our shocking first place team went with Kelley coming off a rib injury in a game where they trailed the entire time, and it paid off. I still can't believe the standings when I look at them, but moves like this help explain.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Austin Sefarian-Jenkins over Jack Doyle
If our defending champ wanted any shot at repeating, he needed to take down a depleted Barnard squad. Instead, he couldn't even put up the 76 points necessary to do that, and it came down to his TE position. Not an obvious decision, but at 3-5, one that may have cost him his last shot at the playoffs.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Trades on Trades on Trades
This is obviously the most active NFL trade deadline of all time, so I'm hoping that trend applies to this league as well. The trade deadline is November 15th, so I'll have my annual trade suggestion post coming next week.
Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Zacherman vs. Marco
We got ourselves a showdown! This is a de facto championship game for the Blackouts and Jewheads division, and it comes with these teams at a crossroads. Marco has wheeled and dealed his way to a 6-2 record, but he has yet to play Z, Bennett, Esco and Levine. Zacherman has stayed with the team he drafted, and has outscored every team in the league by a wide margin, but looks to finally be losing Zeke. To make matters more complicated, these teams are also losing a combined 6 starters to bye weeks. After correctly picking Levine last week, I'm trying to get on a hot streak, but I really think any outcome here is possible. With that in mind, I'll take the team who's been stronger overall and go with Z.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Win Total Check-In
Cardinals Over 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Loss
Bears Over 5.5 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bengals Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Broncos Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Lions Under 8 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Texans Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Chargers Over 7.5 - On Pace for 6 - Loss
Rams Over 5.5 - On Pace for 11.4 - Win
Giants Under 9 - On Pace for 2.3 - Win
Raiders Under 10 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bucs Under 8.5 - On Pace for 4.6 - Win
Assumed Wins: Rams, Giants, Raiders, Bucs
Assumed Losses: Cardinals
The rest are toss ups at this point.
NFL Week 9 Bets
Bills (-3) at Jets
Jaguars (-5) vs. Bengals
Rams (-3) at Giants
Saints (-7) vs. Bucs
Eagles (-8) vs. Broncos
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 22-14
NCAA Week 10 Bets
Iowa State (+3) at West Virginia
Miami (+3) vs. Virginia Tech
Last Week: 6-1-1
2017 Record: 19-17-3
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