Stevens Bowl Results/Offseason Preview

First off, congrats to Levine on a much-deserved first chef's coat. He's had a record over .500 every year other than his first, and using my PAA metric he's the clear cut #1 best owner since 2012. In fact, PAA correctly predicted the top 3 finishers (albeit flipping Esco and Marco), as well as 4/6 playoff teams using only current FALAFEL teams. As far as I'm concerned, it should be used as the foundation of the division draft next year.

For the offseason, we will conduct Winter Meetings via email starting in mid-January unless there's a time when more than half the league can get together, which I'm doubting. I'll start a thread next week to start gathering topics.

I'll also be continuing Gambling Corner on this blog, but I won't spam the listserve for those non-degenerates. For those interested, you can just check the blog every Friday, or Follow it using your Google account. I'll include my bets for the rest of the football season, as well as some soccer and basketball picks, and any futures bets I make. I might also expand to other gambling topics if people are interested, but I also might get lazy.

Finally, my weekly #KumpfKurse picks finished at 13-6, and would have ended on an 11-game winning streak if I had simply not made a pick for the Rogers Bowl.


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 17 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 109th out of 19,826: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Eagles (+3) vs. Cowboys
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bills
Cardinals (+10) at Seahawks
Panthers (+4) at Falcons
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 42-28-1

For NFL Win Totals, I'm currently 8-1 on the teams that are already decided, with while needing a Bears win to get them and a Lions loss to push that one.

NCAA Week 3 Bowl Bets
Wake Forest (-3) vs. Texas A&M
Arizona State (+7) vs. NC State
Northwestern (-8)  vs. Kentucky
Utah State (-4) vs. New Mexico State
Ohio State (-7) vs. USC
Mississippi State (+7) vs. Louisville
Iowa State (+4) vs. Memphis
Washington (+3) vs. Penn State
Wisconsin (-4) vs. Miami
South Carolina (+8) vs. Michigan
Central Florida (+10) vs. Auburn
Notre Dame (+3) vs. LSU
Oklahoma (+2) vs. Georgia
Clemson (+3) vs. Alabama
Last Week: 11-7
2017 Record: 43-34-7

Stevens Bowl IX Preview

Every fantasy season is a bit like The Butterfly Effect, in that small moments can have an out-sized impact on the final result. Take this play from Week 7. If you showed that to a bunch of football fans at a sports bar and asked who deserves the fumble, the vast majority would say Curtis Samuel. But the fumble was given to Cam, along with the -2 points, which ended up costing me a victory against Bennett. That potential/deserved win cost me a bye, and if I had the bye, I would have beaten the Esco/Marco winner last week, and would be heading towards my first Stevens Bowl. Levine would likely destroy me once I got there, but being that close to a chance at a chef's coat is enough to make me seriously consider my future in this league. So I guess I really am the FALAFEL Marvin Lewis.

Anyway, on to what actually matters...

LEVINE! ESCO! GORDON! BURTON! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL!


The Stevens Bowl: 3) Levine vs. 6) Esco

Quarterback
Russ finally had a rough game, but it didn't end up mattering as the rest of Levine's team broke 120 on their own. I don't see that happening two games in a row, especially against a team without a pass rush in JerryWorld. On Esco's side, he has his usual Keenum vs. Matty Ice decision. Both passers are on the road, and while Keenum has the better matchup, the Frozen Tundra might come into play and make it difficult to pass. I'd probably go Keenum unless precipitation is in the forecast, but either way it shouldn't matter.
Edge: Levine

Runningback
Freeman carried Esco to the promise land, and I like him to show up against the Saints as well, even if Coleman returns. Outside of that, I'm done trusting Lamar Miller and the Duke/Rod combo is a lottery ticket. If they were going up against Latavius Murray, Mike Davis and Kerwynn Williams, I'd give Esco the edge. But unfortunately those are Levine's backup RBs. No one's touching the Kareem/Ingram combo.
Big Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
Last week, Esco had the bold strategy of only carrying two receivers. They didn't impress, but did just enough for the win. He'll roll them back this week, to which Levine's Avengers say, "That's cool. Watch this."
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
Going into last week, the one minor blemish on Levine's roster was TE, where the Greg Olsen stash had yet to pay off. That all changed with his big day against Green Bay, and now there's really no one Esco can run out that would flip this position, even Trey Fucking Burton.
Big Edge: Levine

D/ST
The Chargers fell apart last week, and nearly cost Esco in the process, but they get the Bryce Petty Experience this week. As for Levine, Carolina's D has been legit all year and gets a turnover-prone Jameis team. That's not bad, but it's not Bryce.
Edge: Esco

Overall
In some years, the Stevens Bowl is a toss up and we have hotly a contested battle for the chef's coat. This is not one of those years.
Pick: Levine

On a lesser note, I'm taking Zacherman in the Rogers Bowl, giving him back-to-back third place finishes.

Matchup Predictions: 12-5 (10 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 16 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 125th out of 19,668: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+9) vs. Vikings
Saints (-5) vs. Falcons
Redskins (-3) vs. Broncos
Jaguars (-4) at 49ers
Cardinals (-3) vs. Giants
Last Week: 2-1-1
2017 Record: 39-26-1

NCAA Week 2 Bowl Bets
Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
Ohio (-7) vs. UAB

Wyoming (-1 ) vs. Central Michigan
Texas Tech (+3) vs. South Florida
Army (+7) vs. San Diego State
Appalachian State (+8) vs. Toledo
Fresno State (+3) vs. Houston
West Virginia (+7) vs. Utah
Northern Illinois (+5) vs. Duke
UCLA (+3) vs. Kansas State
Southern Miss (+16) vs. Florida State
Texas (+3) vs. Missouri
Iowa (-3) vs. Boston College
Purdue (+4) vs. Arizona
Virginia (+1) vs. Navy
Virginia Tech (+4) vs. Oklahoma State
Stanford (+3) vs. TCU
Michigan State (+2) vs. Washington State
Last Week: 3-4-1
2017 Record: 32-27-7

Semifinal Preview

Without doing any research, I can confidently say that this was the closest playoff round in FALAFEL history. It had unlikely success stories (Trey Fucking Burton), massive disappointments (Mike Evans/Emmanuel Sanders), along with some expected performances (my continued Marvin Lewis impersonation, Levine's "better late than never" domination). We're now at the final four, and it includes the four strongest teams based on points scored. There will be no asterisk on this chef's coat/hat.

Matchup 1: 1) Zacherman vs. 4) Levine

Quarterback
On paper, Russ vs. Brees is a battle of heavyweights, but this has been an interesting year for both. Russ has no offensive line or running game, and has somehow translated that into being a world destroyer as the #1 overall QB. Brees finally has a defense and running game, and has quietly turned into Alex Smith. Both are facing schizophrenic defenses in the Rams and Jets, but I'd be dumb to go against Russ at this point.
Edge: Levine

Runningback
The breakdown of points between Brees, Ingram and Kamara will determine the outcome of this matchup. Kamara has been the most dynamic player in fantasy this year, and when he catches a TD,  Zacherman gets 15 points. However, he's coming off a concussion and facing a Jets team that won't be competitive after the first quarter, so this sounds like an Ingram game to me. McKinnon has the potential to keep it close with a nice matchup, but Levine can counter that with Kareem Hunt. A week from now, Zeke changes the conversation, but Z has to make it there first.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
A.J. Green is a great player. But he's facing a shutdown corner against the Vikings, and Zacherman is flanking him with a pupu platter of barely startable WR3s. On the other side, Levine has the literal fucking Avengers in Nuk, Keenan and Flash.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
After my Trey Burton nightmare last week, I'm about ready to send the Tight End position the way of the Kicker. But while we still start these random assholes, there is still a clear top tier and Gronk is part of it when he's healthy and not suspended. Doesn't matter who Levine starts here, though an Olsen resurgence would only add fuel to his unstoppable machine.
Big Edge: Zacherman

D/ST
Neither team is dominant here, so the performance will likely depends on which offense is more pathetic, the Jets or the Cards. Not a huge edge here, but I'm not one to bet against Bryce Petty's awfulness.
Slight Edge: Levine

Overall
Zacherman's insane run of weekly top scores this year was truly impressive. Even after losing Zeke, he was not only competitive, but often dominant. But the danger of bidding on Zeke during the draft was that you were only guaranteed to have him for 6 games, barring a deep playoff run. Zacherman made the playoff run, but it's going to end one week before Zeke can save him.
Pick: Levine


Matchup 2: 2) Marco vs. 6) Esco AKA The Battles of Casas Grandes Dos

Quarterback
Both owners here have tough decisions. Marco's Mariota has a much better matchup, but his inconsistency is terrifying. Meanwhile, Alex Smith seems likely to check down constantly against the Charger pass rush. On Esco's side, Matty Ice nearly cost him the win last week, but gets a nice Bucs matchup this week, on MNF no less. Keenum is also set up for success, but I don't know if I would want "Starting Case Keenum kept me out of the Stevens Bowl" to be on the table.
Edge: Esco

Runningback
Lots of interesting situations here, none of which seems to benefit Marco. If Coleman is truly concussed, Marco only has one legitimate RB, albeit one who turns into a god in the snow. Esco looks primed to benefit, with Freeman (on MNF) getting more carries, Lamar Miller potentially rebounding against the mediocre Jags run defense, and the immortal Rod Smith getting to feast on Oakland.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
If Marco is going to win, it's going to be here. Esco's group is fine, with Reek and Tate doing just enough each week to keep him in contention. But Marco has a trio of studs who are capable of putting up 60 on their own.
Edge: Marco

Tight End
With Zach Ertz cleared of concussion protocol, the Trey Fucking Burton experience looks set to end after one week (and continues the tradition of a player having the best game of their career when facing me in the playoffs). That leaves Esco scrambling, and opens up the delicious possibility of Marcedes "Chicken Wing" Lewis starting in a FALAFEL playoff matchup in 2017. Against all odds, Marco has an advantage in Jason Witten, albeit a small one.
Slight Edge: Marco

D/ST
Similar to the TE matchup, there's not a lot to love here. I assume there still might be moves made, but as it stands I can't pick a winner among the mediocrity.
Edge: Even

Overall
This is a tough one. Marco turned the blacked out roster that he drafted into a serious contender (with a huge assist from Gutman), but the Coleman injury is a huge issue, especially given that the game is on Monday (the fact that Esco didn't previously add Terron Ward is potentially a huge mistake). I think that even if he's active, Atlanta limits Coleman's touches, with Freeman benefiting. And that edge is enough to stick with Esco for one more week.
Pick: Esco

Matchup Predictions: 10-5 (8 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 15 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 110th out of 19,336: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Colts (+3) vs. Broncos
Chiefs (+2) vs. Chargers
Ravens (-7) at Browns
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 37-25

NCAA Week 1 Bowl Bets
North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Grambling State
North Texas (+7) vs. Troy
Georgia State (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
Boise State (+8) vs. Oregon
Marshall (+6) vs. Colorado State
Arkansas State (-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
Akron (+23) vs. Florida International
SMU (-5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
Ohio (-7) vs. UAB
Wyoming (-1 ) vs. Central Michigan
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6

Quarterfinal Preview

The playoffs are finally here, and we have three repeat teams in Zacherman, Levine and myself. Z gets the week off along with Marco, so here are the usual Dr. Z breakdowns of the quarterfinal matchups.

Matchup 1: 3) Kumpf vs. 6) Esco

Quarterback
The QBs in this matchup are facing off this week in what could easily be a low-scoring slugfest. I still have trouble believing that Case Keenum is an above average NFL (or fantasy) starter, but I also hate having to trust Cam every week when half the time it looks like he forgot how to throw. Our IR battle of Watson vs. Rodgers would be much more entertaining, but we're stuck with what we got (Until potentially next week for me. Be very afraid Marco.)
Slight Edge: Kumpf

Runningback
Both teams have an extremely deep stable of RBs, but mine are currently pretty banged up. Esco would always have the higher ceiling with Freeman (who has the potential to get him out to a 20 point lead on TNF), but the floor of my group is pretty high as well. Lamar Miller could be the X-factor here, as he gets a juicy matchup with the Niners, but my Pats RB duo gets last licks against a terrible Miami team. Esco needs this one more than I do.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
This is where the matchup is likely to be decided. Esco's duo either has a very high ceiling (Reek) or his success comes at the expense of one of my guys (Tate), and on top of that, they both have great matchups. My matchups aren't too bad either, but I've been terrible at making my flex decision all year. I'm going to assume that Reek doesn't go off again, but I don't get any huge weeks either, and hedge my bets.
Edge: Even

Tight End
What a cluster. Last week, the Raiders were without Crabtree and Cooper, yet Jared Cook only put up one catch for nine yards, giving him 4 combined receptions in the last three weeks. I'm going back to the well one more time, but I have absolutely no faith in breaking 5 points. Esco's Tyler Kroft/Chicken Wing duo maxes out at about 40 yards, so they're entirely TD-dependent.
Edge: Even

D/ST
My best player, the Jags D, gets to go up against a Seattle O-Line that has no prayer of keeping Russ on his feet. Seattle should put up points, and likely won't have multiple turnovers, limiting the ceiling here, but Sacksonville is guaranteed double digits based on QB takedowns alone. Esco gets to choose between the Chargers and Panthers (who are going up against his QB). Neither option is terrible, but neither option is likely to keep up with the Jags.
Edge: Kumpf

Overall
This is gonna be close. Esco has a much higher ceiling, breaking 100 four times and breaking 90 five more times. However, he also has three weeks under 90 and one under 60, giving him the lower floor. My team has been the definition of consistency, scoring between 87-93 six times, while breaking 100 four other times and only falling below 83 once. But in the playoffs experience matters. I'm 0-2 career, making me the Marvin Lewis of FALAFEL, while Esco has a chef's coat in his past. I'm going with history.
Pick: Esco


Matchup 2: 4) Levine vs. 5) Bennett

Quarterback
This is the key position in this matchup. Both Russ and Dak have had recent protection issues, but Russ is taking on the scary Jags D, while Dak gets a confusing Giants team. Both are on the road, which could lead to some weather issues for Dak in Jersey, potentially negating an easier matchup. This is gonna be close, but I'll lean towards Russ's talent even in a tougher matchup.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningback
Lots of talent for these two teams at RB. Levine has alternately had Hunt and Ingram as the best RBs in fantasy, while Bennett's group has been somewhat disappointing on a week-to-week basis. I have to give Levine the edge here based on prior performance, but I actually think Bennett can hold his own with his trio, especially if Ingram is limited.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
This is where we see some real separation. I don't think that DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen are the best receivers in the world, but their QBs certainly do (this could also apply to Josh Gordon), as they both rack up a shit ton of targets. Even if Mike Evans has one of his big games, this is a huge advantage for Levine.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
If Bennett has any prayer of making the Final Four, it has to come from Kelce. Last week was a dream situation, where two early TDs guaranteed a huge day. He scored earlier this year against Oakland, but was held in check outside of the TD, so Bennett has to hope to improve on that performance because he needs 20+. As for Levine, if Austin Hooper outscores Kelce then we should all give up because this year is over.
Big Edge: Bennett

D/ST
Both teams here are benching their usual D for a better Week 14 matchup. That process usually leads to a toss up, and that's what I'm thinking here. The Bears suck, but don't usually turn the ball over, limiting Levine's ceiling. The Cardinals have Blaine Gabbert, but Bennett's starting a Titans D that isn't very good. No use picking between subpar options.
Edge: Even

Overall
Is there a path to victory for Bennett here? The Dakstreet Boys could blow out the G-Men, while the Jags hold Seattle under 10 points. Marshawn and Kelce could trade TDs, while Kamara dominates the touches for the Saints. Even if those somewhat long-shots happen, I still see Levine dominating the WR battle and pulling out a win and a highly anticipated matchup with Z.
Pick: Levine

Matchup Predictions: 8-5 (6 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 14 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 112th out of 18,988: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (-3) at Browns
Texans (-3) vs. 49ers
Panthers (+3) vs. Vikings
Cardinals (+3) vs. Titans
Eagles (+3) at Rams
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 33-24

NCAA Bowl Bets
Coming next week.
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6

Week 13 Preview

We finally made it to the last week of the regular season, and while there isn't the heightened drama that we usually get in this league, plenty of teams still have reasons to compete. Whether it's for a bye, playoff spot, avoiding the pre-draft shots, or simply to win the elevated Week 13 prize, this is the last week that all 14 teams will be actively competing. Rather than go through the usual sections in this space, I'm going to go team-by-team and outline the potential scenarios they face this week. Teams listed in order of playoff seeding if the season ended today, with one exception.

1. Zacherman
Clinched playoffs and first round bye. He can clinch the regular season prize with a win over Esco, with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco loss to Levine, or with a loss to Esco combined with a Marco win over Levine where Marco doesn't outscore him by over 115. TLDR, Zacherman clinched the #1 seed.

2. Marco
Clinched playoffs. He can clinch a first round bye with a win over Levine, with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf loss to Barnard, or with a loss to Levine combined with a Kumpf win over Barnard where Kumpf doesn't outscore him by over 61. He can also take over the #1 seed if he beats Levine, Zacherman loses to Esco, and he outscores Z by over 115. TLDR, Marco clinched the #2 seed.

3. Kumpf
Clinched playoffs. I can take over the #2 seed if I beat Barnard, Marco loses to Levine, and I outscores Marco by over 61. Otherwise, I clinch the #3 seed with a win. If I lose to Barnard and Levine beats Marco, I fall to the #4 seed. I cannot fall further than that.

4. Levine
Due to his huge lead over all the other contenders in points scored, Levine has clinched the playoffs. If he beats Marco and Kumpf loses to Barnard, he gets the #3 seed. If he beats Marco and Kumpf beats Barnard, he gets the #4 seed. If he loses to Marco and Bennett beats Gutman, he gets the #5 seed. He can't fall further than that.

6. Esco
I'm going out of order here, because Esco has clinched the playoffs in a similar way that Levine has. Despite potentially (and because he's facing Z, probably) finishing at 6-7, Esco has close to a 100 point lead on the next three teams, so he has clinched at least the #6 seed and at best the #5 seed. If he beats Zacherman and Bennett loses to Gutman, he gets the #5 seed, otherwise he gets the #6 seed.

This is where it gets interesting. Thanks to Bennett's free-fall and relatively low point total, the following three teams could all potentially qualify for the final playoff spot.

5. Bennett
No one took him seriously at 7-1, but a 4-game losing streak (and a questionable 0.5 point win over me earlier in the season), has exposed this team for the fraud that it is. If Bennett beats Gutman this week, he clinches the #5 seed and that's that. Even if he loses to Gutman and Esco loses to Zacherman, Bennett still wins BAM's horrible division and clinches the #5 seed. However, if he loses to Gutman, and Esco beats Zacherman, things get interesting. If Bennett loses to Gutman by more than 7.4, Gutman passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. If Bennett loses to Gutman by less than 7.4, but Alan beats Reap and outscores Bennett by 21.8, then Alan passes him in total points and eliminates Bennett. This is the single most important team in Week 13.

7. Gutman
Against all odds, he's still in this thing. Odds aren't great however and if he loses to Bennett or Zacherman beats Esco, he's immediately eliminated. But if Esco beats Zacherman, Gutman beats Bennett by more than 7.4, and Alan does not beat Reap while outscoring Gutman by 14.4, then Gutman improbably clinches the #5 seed.

8. Alan
Our defending champion is somehow still alive for his third Stevens Bowl title. Alan has chugged along at around .500 all year, and I guess I just never really considered him as a team that could compete for a playoff spot. But just like herpes, he is flaring up at a very inopportune time for Bennett and Gutman. Similar to Gutman, he can be immediately eliminated if he loses to Reap or Zacherman beats Esco. But if Esco beats Zacherman, and Alan beats Reap while outscoring the winner of the Bennett/Gutman matchup by either 21.8 (Bennnett) or 14.4 (Gutman), then the groom-to-be will get a shot to defend his title.

9. Reap
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Reap's only reason to compete is to play spoiler for Alan.

10. Ajay
Eliminated from the playoffs, and clear from last place. Ajay's only reason to compete is to help force Belfer into last place.

11. Barnard
Eliminated from the playoffs. He currently has an 81-point lead on Weissbard, so I'm going to go ahead and say he's clear from last place. He can't even spoil my playoff spot, so he can spend the weekend sweeping up cocks.

12. Belfer
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 42.1-point lead on Weissbard, so technically he's not clear from last place. If he beats Ajay or Weissbard loses to BAM, he's clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Ajay and Weissbard beats BAM while outscoring him by 42.1, along with BAM outscoring him by 14.6.

13. BAM
Eliminated from the playoffs. He has a 27.5 point lead on Weissbard, so he's still in danger of ending up in last place. If he beats Weissbard, he's clear. If he loses to Weissbard and Belfer loses to Ajay, but he outscores Belfer by 14.6, he's also clear. The only way he ends up in last place is if he loses to Weissbard by 27.5 while not outscoring a losing Belfer team by 14.6.

14. Weissbard
Eliminated from the playoffs and very likely in last place. His situation is simple, he needs to beat BAM by at least 27.5, otherwise he takes the pre-draft shots next year.


Biggest Matchup of the Week - The Landlord Bowl
As much as Weissbard probably wants the Toilet Bowl in this space, the biggest playoff implications reside in our nation's capital. I've discussed the impact of this matchup above, so now it's time to break it down. Gutman made some big waiver moves this week, picking up the dynamic duo of Jalen Richard and Byron Marshall, but his squad is still severely undermanned. Bennett gets to lead off with Dak and Perine on TNF, which could mean anything from 10-30 points, and will set the tone for the week. The individual matchups clearly favor Bennett throughout, but JuJu presents an interesting wild card on MNF. If he completely misses the game, Gut could be left with no options to start (note to Gutman, not picking up Martavis last week is almost as bad as trading Thielen for McGuire). However, if JuJu plays, he has a potential 25 point week in him at all times. As much as I'm tempted to make things interesting and pick Gutman, Bennett should win by 40+.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 7-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 13 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 99th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bears (-3) vs. 49ers
Texans (+7) at Titans
Vikings (+3) at Falcons
Saints (-4) vs. Panthers
Last Week: 0-3
2017 Record: 31-22

NCAA Week 14 Bets
For the remainder of the college season, I'll be betting on all the major conference championship games, and each bowl game. This week is all on the dogs.
Stanford (+4) vs. USC
Memphis (+7) vs. Central Florida
TCU (+8) vs. Oklahoma
Georgia (+3) vs. Auburn
Wisconsin (+6) vs. Ohio State
Miami (+10) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 0-0
2017 Record: 27-21-4

Quick Week 12 Preview

Finally back in the USA, and wanted to get out something quick for posterity about Week 12. Enjoy the weekly sections below as your nurse your collective hangovers and get ready for the final set of games today and tomorrow night.

Playoff Odds

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12

After all the discussion about changing the playoff qualifications this year, we officially have our most boring playoff races ever. There are 6 teams over .500, and the "worst" two of those six by record are both top 4 scoring teams. I'm pretty sure that the playoff teams (not seeds) are set already, but I guess theoretically Gutman, Alan, and Reap are still alive if they win out and get a shit ton of help to win their divisions. The biggest drama is around who gets the byes. Zacherman looks to have one locked up, but there could be close races between the other 5 top teams depending on the next two weeks. I'm really grasping at straws for drama here, as even the weekly low score/Christmas card was locked up months ago.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Kumpf
4. Bennett
5. Levine
6. Esco


Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - Zacherman vs. Bennett
Obviously with three games played already, I have a bit of an advantage in making this pick, so I went with the only matchup of playoff teams, as well as one where Z could clinch a bye. Bennett got a nice performance from potential waiver pickup of the year Samaje Perine, but that was offset by Dak continuing to fall off a cliff. Zacherman started off fine, but his previously dominant team is starting Mike Wallace, and one of Matt Forte/Brandon LaFell/Zay Jones. I think Z wins it, but Bennett keeps it close enough that Wallace needs to show up on MNF.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 12 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 67th out of 17,816: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Bucs (+10) at Falcons
Jaguars (-5) at Cardinals
Saints (+2) at Rams
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 31-19

NCAA Week 13 Bets
Already missed the NCAA bets but nothing important happened this week, right?
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 27-21-4

Week 10 Recap

There are only three weeks left in the regular season, the trade deadline has passed, and for a few teams (including myself), any loss could be the one that forces you to miss the playoffs. So naturally, I'm going to Peru for the next week and will be mostly off the grid. I'm hoping that the mystical powers of Machu Picchu will magically give the Patriots' RB situation some clarity and turn Jordy Nelson back into a fantasy relevant receiver, but more likely I'll end up starting a guy who's injured because I have no internet access.

Regardless, no post next week, so let me be the first to say Happy Thanksgiving.

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams made the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/10) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

The playoff picture looks pretty set right now, but there's still a sliver of room for party crashers. Based on recent history, Zacherman, Bennett and Marco are all in, while it would take a collapse for Esco and me to miss out. And with the new playoff rules this year, it's basically impossible for Levine to not get at least the 6th seed.

On the flip side, Reap and Alan suffered crushing losses that puts them in the historically eliminated group with Weissbard, BAM, Barnard and Belfer.

That leaves Gutman and Ajay as potential party crashers. Gutman's team has had an absurd roller coaster ride, but it may have finally crashed thanks to Cam on MNF. He's still technically in the division race, but his slate includes Z and Bennett, while Levine and especially me have much easier schedules. The NiJo rule is probably Gutman's best option, but that would require passing multiple top 6 teams in points, or making up 2 games on Bennett, all while Levine takes over the division lead. As for Ajay, his only chance is for Wild Card chaos, because he's unlikely to make up the necessary ground points wise. Both of these teams should be rooting for Levine to win each week (though Ajay plays him still), Bennett to lose, and the Kumpf/Marco/Esco trio to put up low point totals.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Marco
3. Bennett
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine (137.4 points above Gutman)

Team of the Week - Marco

Now that the Trade Deadline has passed, Marco is finally stuck with the team he's with. He may have set a FALAFEL record with 5 trades, and those moves took a team that look doomed on draft day to one that's aiming for a bye. By taking down Bennett, led by Adam "I'm on a revenge tour after being traded straight up for Elijah McGuire" Thielen, Marco has all but clinched a playoff spot. Even if his final three games include Levine and Esco, he can afford to drop both those games and hold onto his spot.



Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Garrett Celek over the rest of the Waiver TEs

No close games this week, so I'll pat myself on the back for picking up the backup TE on a winless team and seeing him put up 14.7 points.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman trading Adam Thielen straight up for Elijah McGuire

Again, no close games, but if Gutman started Thielen over Corey Davis, he would have saved his season. This is bar none the worst trade of all time.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman nearly got the high score without Zeke

His entire team hits double figures pretty much every week, and when you take down his best player, guys like Sterling Shephard rise from the ashes. Levine found his mojo again this week, but Z might still be favored without Zeke if they meet in the Stevens Bowl.


Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Battle of Casas Grandes
After finally getting my record here back to .500 after the Crows Nest Bowl, we head south of the border for this week's big game. The Battle of Casas Grandes was apparently a big battle in the Mexican revolution, but in this case, Esco and Marco are battling to get a bye. Unfortunately for Esco, things are leaning pretty heavilty in Marco's favor. New acquisition Matty Ice gets the Seahawks in Seattle, and Tevin Coleman will start with Freeman hurt, negating any advantage there. Even a big Tyreek game will be offset somewhat by Marco's Alex Smith. Honestly, Marco's team looks like it's set up specifically to fuck Esco over this week, which is impressive. I'd bet the house on Marco. #ReverseTheKurse
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 5-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 11 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 47th out of 17,106: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+2) vs. Ravens
Jaguars (-7) at Browns
Saints (-8) vs. Redskins
Texans (-2) vs. Cardinals
Patriots (-7) at Oakland (in Mexico City)
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 28-17

NCAA Week 12 Bets
Wisconsin (-7) vs. Michigan
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
Texas A&M (+3) at Ole Miss
Vanderbilt (+9) vs. Missouri
UCLA (+16) at USC
Last Week: 4-1-1
2017 Record: 24-19-4

Week 9 Recap/Trade Deadline Preview

With the fantasy trade deadline looming next week, it's time for my favorite post of the year: The Trade Deadline Preview! As in years past, I'll do my best to concoct 7 trades that are as win-win as possible. I don't think any of my suggestions have ever actually occurred, but it hopefully gets everyone talking as rosters finalize before the playoff run.

Real Trade 1
Barnard receives James White and Vernon Davis
Marco receives Marcus Mariota and Steelers D/ST
We can start off with a real trade! Marco using trades as his waiver wire will never cease to be hilarious, but he did well here. Mariota and Smith is a solid QB combo, and Pittsburgh is a definite upgrade over the Chiefs deteriorating defense. Barnard's motivation outside of just getting rid of his unnecessary second QB and bringing in a Patriot is suspect, but White should at least be in the mix to start for him. It's still absurd that he couldn't get better for Mariota at any point this year.
Barnard Grade: B-
Marco Grade: B

Real Trade 2
Esco receives Jordan Matthews
Reap receives Theo Riddick
Esco's pathetic trade plea paid immediate dividends for Reap. I mentioned Esco's unbalanced roster below, so it makes sense that he would take a hit in any RB-for-WR trade. That said, it might have made sense to trade for a player with any upside, of which Matthews has none. On the Reap side, he flipped a guy he would never start to a flex-worthy RB (especially this week).
Esco Grade: C-
Reap Grade: B+

Real Trade 3
Weissbard receives Matt Breida
Marco receives Josh Doctson
Pretty uneventful deal here, but I'm committed to grading them all. Weissbard gets Hyde's handcuff, so his motivation is clear. As for Marco, this reeks of a homer pick, as I can't see him starting Doctson over his top three WRs, but I guess it balances his roster? Marco gets the better player, but Weissbard's team benefits more, if that makes sense.
Weissbard Grade: B
Marco Grade: B-

Real Trade 4
Ajay receives Ravens D/ST
Kumpf receives Jared Cook
Another TE/DST trade! Marco's mentality has been contagious as we've hit a solid 12 trades this year. The only teams who haven't made a trade are Z (who no one wants to deal with) and the BAM/BMO duos (who are impossible to deal with). As for this move, Ajay wasn't starting Cook over Graham, and I wasn't starting the Ravens over the Jags, so it's an easy win-win. If Ajay makes the playoffs he gets some nice matchups, and if Reed comes back at full strength then Cook is extraneous, but for now I don't see a loser.
Ajay Grade: B+
Kumpf Grade: B+

Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Isaiah Crowell and Jordy Nelson
Kumpf receives Gio Bernard and Travis Kelce
Bennett and I can balance each others' rosters with a fairly simple move. Bennett can move away from flexing a TE, and add to his overall depth, while I get Reed insurance while handcuffing Bro Mixon.

Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Jared Goff, Wendell, Smallwood, Randall Cobb, and Zach Ertz
Gutman receives Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, Nelson Agholor, and Ed Dickson
Ertz is really the only stud asset that Gutman has, so using him as a way to improve at RB and WR is really the only move he has left to salvage his season. As for Weissbard, maybe he can flip Ertz to Bennett for a huge mark up? It's shocking how bad these two rosters are.


Mock Trade 3
Alan receives Duke Johnson and Damien Williams
Esco receives Devin Funchess and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Esco has one of the weirdest rosters in the league, with a shit ton of RBs and literally 2 WRs. This helps him balance out, and gives a slight upgrade from Tyler Kroft at TE. Alan's RB situation is in dire straits, but getting two receiving backs will at least give him more options to start, without really hurting the rest of his roster too much.

Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives T.Y. Hilton
BAM receives Derrick Henry
This is a straight up challenge trade. Both teams have next to no hope this year, so they need to try to shake things up. Ajay gets to bet on Hilton's upside, even if it's betting big on Jake Brisket as well. BAM gets Murray insurance, with the possibility of starting both Titans RBs against the right matchup. I don't love this trade in general, but I also don't love either of these teams.

Mock Trade 5
Belfer receives Leonard Fournette, Chris Ivory, and Alshon Jeffrey
Reap receives Melvin Gordon and Julio Jones
This is by far my favorite trade. The former duo making a crazy blockbuster with each other. There's not too much analysis here, but Reap already has Melvin's handcuff, and has spoken ill about Fournette's attitude. It likely won't have any effect on the playoff picture, but I think it needs to happen.

Mock Trade 6
Zacherman receives Doug Martin
Levine receives Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Hogan
The final mock trade is between our clear favorites, a la the Kyrie trade. Levine has assembled an extremely deep team, but has some question marks at receiver now that Watson is done and Kelvin has to learn a new offense. This would allow him to get some clarity at WR, and obviously bets that Zeke can come back at some point. For Zacherman, he gets to maintain his three-headed monster at RB without worrying about suspension. It hurts him at WR, but I don't think he was relying too heavily on Hogan to begin with.

Playoff Odds

After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9

After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10

Last week was supposed to be the week of delineation. Gutman, Esco and I had the chance to make a playoff push, while Barnard, Reap, Alan, and Ajay could have all been eliminated. Things didn't go according to plan, and if it wasn't for an absurd late screen pass to Theo Riddick on MNF, all of the 5-3 teams would have lost and all of the 3-5 teams would have won. As it stands, things are a little bit less clear this week, but the guillotine still looms over the 4-5 teams, while the 5-4 teams can set themselves up nicely. This will be explored more in the Matchup of the Week.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Zacherman
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine

Team of the Week - Ajay
It's increasingly hard not to give this to Zacherman every week, but for the sake of narrative, Ajay did us all a favor this week. If he didn't win this week, Bennett would have been the first team in FALAFEL history to start 8-1, which is completely unacceptable. He got the win thanks to McCaffrey's first rushing TD, along with a solid performance from waiver wire pickup Kenyan Drake, so it was a respectable performance overall. But mainly, he beat Bennett and that earns him this honor.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Tyrod Taylor over Matt Stafford
No one made a good decision that actually won a matchup this week (Esco and BAM won close matchups despite some absolutely horrible lineup management), but if I had not been a pussy and kept Marvin Jones in over Jordy Nelson, Belfer making this decision would have won him the week. Silver linings in a lost season for Belf.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard started LeGarrette Blount over Jeremy Maclin and Mohamed Sanu
Between this starting lineup and the trade with Gutman last week, it's almost like Barnard doesn't think that Blount is being phased out in Philly. Honorable mention to Bennett starting Gio over Fat Rob after winning Best Lineup Decision of the Week for doing literally the exact opposite last week. If he had any risk of missing the playoffs, this would be an all-time mistake, but instead we need to punish Barnard.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Levine Shits The Bed
Zacherman's team has looked unstoppable for weeks now, but his best player has a looming suspension that would officially knock him out for the season if it comes this year. That made Levine the favorite in my mind, as his team could take multiple hits and still come out looking solid. That changed this week, as his team looked vulnerable for the first time this year. Is this season now wide open? Probably not, but it's good to see that the #AnyGivenSunday rule still applies.


Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - The Crow's Nest Bowl
Alan's (STILL UNNAMED!) division has been absurd this year, and the two mediocre teams at the top of it finally get to face off this week. Levine looms large behind us, but the winner of this matchup is guaranteed to have a lead over him heading into the final three weeks of the season, making this a potential elimination game. Gutman is somehow killed by byes once again, losing Ertz for the week, while I'm down Crabtree to a bye and Jordan Reed to his usual injured self. Both of us are leaning heavily on the Lions against Cleveland, but while I have their RB and WR, Gutman has their backup TE an D/ST. That pretty much sums up this matchup. I'll #Kurse myself, but hopefully I get back to .500 on the year in these picks, while simultaneously punching my playoff ticket.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 10 Bets
My method for picking NFL games typically assigns a confidence rating to each game, and pick any game where I'm more than 60% confident. Luckily, 538 has a pick'em contest this year where you get to pick every game based on confidence (no spread, just to win). You get points for picking correctly, but you're penalized twice as much for wrong picks, so just going with 100% for each game is a bad strategy. Through 9 weeks, I'm in 94th place out of over 16,000 people:  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Having said that, I hate the lines this week.
Lions (-13) vs. Browns
Jaguars (-4) vs. Chargers
Saints (-3) at Bills
Cowboys (+3) at Falcons
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 26-15

NCAA Week 11 Bets
North Carolina (+10) at Pittsburgh
Rutgers (+31) at Penn State
Wake Forest (+1) at Syracuse
West Virginia (+3) at Kansas State
Colorado (+14) vs. USC
TCU (+7) at Oklahoma
Last Week: 1-1
2017 Record: 20-18-3

Week 8 Recap

We've somehow gone from a league where literally everyone was at .500 after 4 weeks to a league with only one team at .500 after 8 weeks, and that team is one of our two dominant teams so far. It's been a weird year in both real and fake football, and this league is no exception, as you'll see below.

Also, Alan has still not named his division or renamed his team.

Playoff Odds

After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8

After Week 9:
We have never had a team start 9-0 or 8-1
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (14/14) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
29% (4/14) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/8) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-9

I did a double take when I saw the massive drop-off from 6-3 to 5-4, but this apparently is the week where the top teams really separate themselves. So for Esco, Gutman and myself, we'll learn a lot about our collective fates. Luckily, we all play teams below .500, but with three teams above us, and Levine all but locking up the 6th seed, there's only room for two of us in the playoffs. On the flip side, BAM and Weissbard have joined Belfer as being historically eliminated. This week, they can be joined by Alan, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap. This is truly a league of have's and have not's, and unless Esco can rally, it looks like we're likely to have a first-time champ.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Marco
4. Esco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine


Trade Recap
Barnard receives Amari Cooper and Mohamed Sanu
Gutman receives CJ Anderson and Randall Cobb
Despite the relatively big names involved here, this trade doesn't really move the needle much for either team. It's interesting that Barnard saw Blount become irrelevant and immediately decided "I should trade away a running back." If anything, this gives Gutman a shot at maintaining his playoff spot, but that's putting a lot of faith in both CJ and JuJu. Otherwise, a whole lot of meh.
Barnard Grade: C
Gutman Grade: B-

Trade Recap
Esco receives Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, and D'Onta Foreman
Weissbard recieves Eli Manning, Carlos Hyde, and Davante Adams
Verrrry interesting trade here. Esco was held over a barrel with Watson's injury, but actually made out okay here. Esco clearly benefits by gaining a startable QB, but beyond that I think the value is debatable. Miller/Foreman are gonna see a big increase in volume, but that is likely offset by a decrease in quality. Regardless, I don't think they're appreciably worse as a weekly starter than Hyde, who's in a terrible situation as well. So a lot comes down to Adams. Similar to my trade for Jordy (which looks a lot better now that Garcon is out for the year), it remains to be seen how the Green Bay passing attack will look with a prepared Hundley. I have the luxury of only needing Jordy as a WR3, but Weiss also has nothing to lose. I like the trade better for Esco, but it's not a bad move for either team.
Esco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B


Team of the Week - Barnard
Everyone knows how much I despise giving Barnard praise, but putting together a competitive (let alone winning) roster with the amount of byes he had last week, was honestly impressive, even if it was against Alan. He lost any semblance of goodwill with his subsequent trade, but having the balls to start Travis Benjamin (who I honestly didn't know was still on the Chargers, and also did this) gives him the honor this week.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Fat Rob Kelley over Gio Bernard
This was honestly a great call. Even with losing his starting spot to Mixon, Gio was still facing a terrible Colts defense, and he's been respectable in the passing game at times as well. Instead, our shocking first place team went with Kelley coming off a rib injury in a game where they trailed the entire time, and it paid off. I still can't believe the standings when I look at them, but moves like this help explain.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Austin Sefarian-Jenkins over Jack Doyle
If our defending champ wanted any shot at repeating, he needed to take down a depleted Barnard squad. Instead, he couldn't even put up the 76 points necessary to do that, and it came down to his TE position. Not an obvious decision, but at 3-5, one that may have cost him his last shot at the playoffs.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Trades on Trades on Trades
This is obviously the most active NFL trade deadline of all time, so I'm hoping that trend applies to this league as well. The trade deadline is November 15th, so I'll have my annual trade suggestion post coming next week.


Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Zacherman vs. Marco
We got ourselves a showdown! This is a de facto championship game for the Blackouts and Jewheads division, and it comes with these teams at a crossroads. Marco has wheeled and dealed his way to a 6-2 record, but he has yet to play Z, Bennett, Esco and Levine. Zacherman has stayed with the team he drafted, and has outscored every team in the league by a wide margin, but looks to finally be losing Zeke. To make matters more complicated, these teams are also losing a combined 6 starters to bye weeks. After correctly picking Levine last week, I'm trying to get on a hot streak, but I really think any outcome here is possible. With that in mind, I'll take the team who's been stronger overall and go with Z.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Win Total Check-In
Cardinals Over 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Loss
Bears Over 5.5 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bengals Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Broncos Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Lions Under 8 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Texans Under 8.5 - On Pace for 6.8 - Win
Chargers Over 7.5 - On Pace for 6 - Loss
Rams Over 5.5 - On Pace for 11.4 - Win
Giants Under 9 - On Pace for 2.3 - Win
Raiders Under 10 - On Pace for 6 - Win
Bucs Under 8.5 - On Pace for 4.6 - Win

Assumed Wins: Rams, Giants, Raiders, Bucs
Assumed Losses: Cardinals
The rest are toss ups at this point.

NFL Week 9 Bets
Bills (-3) at Jets
Jaguars (-5) vs. Bengals
Rams (-3) at Giants
Saints (-7) vs. Bucs
Eagles (-8) vs. Broncos
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 22-14

NCAA Week 10 Bets
Iowa State (+3) at West Virginia
Miami (+3) vs. Virginia Tech
Last Week: 6-1-1
2017 Record: 19-17-3

Week 7 Recap

We're 7 weeks into the season, and Bennett sits alone in first place. What the actual fuck? To keep us all from killing ourselves, I'm going to power rank the league based on the strength of their current squads.

1. Zacherman
2. Levine

These are clearly our top 2 teams. Z has been probably the most impressive so far, but if Zeke goes down, Levine will be right there to take over the #1 spot.

3. Bennett
4. Kumpf
5. Marco

I could flip a coin here, but a somewhat shorthanded Bennett team did just beat me by 0.5, and I beat Marco earlier this year. My guess is two of these three teams makes the playoffs.

6. Esco
7. Barnard

Esco is probably a lucky 5-2. Barnard is probably an unlucky 2-5. I like Esco's team more but Barnard will not be a fun team to play on any given week (other than this week because he is physically incapable of planning ahead, which is why his entire team is on bye and he's living alone in a four bedroom house).

8. Weissbard
9. Reap

These are my two sleeper picks. Don't look now but Weissbard put together a solid team. And I'm on record in being worried about Reap, but if Fournette isn't 100%, he's done.

10. Belfer
11. BAM
12. Ajay
13. Alan

These teams have too many holes to make up for their talent in other places. I think Alan's trade with me kept his season alive (if on life support), and the rest of these teams should think about doing the same.

14. Gutman

No matter what who he starts this week, Gutman will be have a starting lineup that was worth less than $75 in draft auction money. I can't imagine anyone else has ever dropped below even $100, let alone a 5-2 team. More on this situation below.

Also Alan has still not named his division (or renamed his team), while Ajay's team name refers to a series of trades that happened over a year ago with a team that is no longer in the league. Get your shit together Indians.


Playoff Odds

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8

Based on history, only Belfer is eliminated. This has been a year of mediocrity in the NFL, and FALAFEL is no different. I guess that makes Belfer the Browns, Bennett the Eagles, and Gutman the Dolphins.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Gutman
6. Levine


Trade Recap
Alan receives Derek Carr and Pierre Garcon
Kumpf receives Jordy Nelson
No one has offered to write this one up, so I guess I'll do it myself. This was probably the easiest trade I've ever negotiated, which is saying something considering it was with Alan. Early on Tuesday, Barnard alerted me to the fact that Alan lost Carson Palmer and had no viable options at QB. Barnard was trying to trade rape Alan, by acquiring Cooks for Mariota and Blount. Alan apparently requested that Barnard change his team name to something insulting about me as part of the deal, which I can respect, but the deal never happened. As it turns out, Alan and I could put together a mutually beneficial deal that keeps his team afloat at QB, and gives my boring team a higher potential ceiling. I'll give the edge to Alan here, as he clearly benefited more, but I think we both made out pretty well.
Alan Grade: A
Kumpf Grade: B+


Team of the Week - Belfer

Even the losers get lucky sometimes (RIP in peace Petty). A week after costing himself the win by sitting AP, he almost made the same mistake in reverse, but Esco couldn't rise to the occasion. Moving forward, I think this team isn't a threat to go on a run to the playoffs, but I'm not looking forward to facing Julio after watching him son Malcolm Butler like that.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Cameron Brate over Rob Kelley

No great options this week, and it feels wrong to praise Bennett after he started Eric "Goose Egg" Decker, but that's where we are.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Cam Newton over David Carr

Losing by 0.5 is never fun, but doing so while knowing you could have won by 20? That's worse. Carr clearly was creating division in my locker room, so I had to ship him out immediately. Jordy, welcome to the squad.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck
Maybe this isn't surprising anymore. After the draft, I wasn't the biggest fan of Gutman's team, but I figured he would linger around the playoffs for most of the season. After DJ went down, I thought his chances were slim to none. Even after getting off to a 4-2, I figured losing Rodgers was the actual nail in his coffin. But he just keeps finding a way, with Amari Cooper's resurgence as the latest reason for his big day. At 5-2, he's now either set up to become the worst playoff team we've ever seen, or to suffer the biggest collapse in recent FALAFEL history.


Biggest Matchup of Week 8 - Levine vs. Gutman
After placing the worst #Kurse of all time on myself, it's time to take that evil elsewhere. A lot of the teams in this section have been used multiple times, but that's because Alan's (unnamed) division is by far the most interesting. These two teams are headed in opposite directions, but Gutman still has an important 2-game lead in the division, which would prevent Levine from being eligible for the bye. In a week with 6 teams on bye, somehow Levine's insanely deep team is completely unaffected, yet one of Gutman's three actual fantasy starters is out. However, Gutman has a nice slate of matchups, even if his actual players are laughable. I'd like to say he can keep it close, but the talent disparity, along with Kareem Hunt getting last licks, means I have to #Kurse Levine.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-5


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 8 Bets
Vikings (-9) vs. Browns (Neutral Site)
Saints (-9) vs. Bears
Eagles (-13) vs. 49ers
Redskins (+2) vs. Cowboys
Chiefs (-7) vs. Broncos
I also like a Vikings/Saints/Eagles/Chiefs Money Line Parlay at +120
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 19-12

NCAA Week 9 Bets
I'm 2-7-1 in the last two weeks, so it's time to double down with my most bets of any single week, including one on Rutgers at the Big House.
Florida State (-3) at Boston College
Rutgers (+24) at Michigan
Wake Forest (+3) vs. Louisville
Georgia (-14) vs. Florida (Neutral Site)
Notre Dame (-7) vs. NC State
South Carolina (-7) vs. Vanderbilt
Oregon (+4) vs. Utah
Mississippi State (-1) at Texas A&M
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 13-16-2

Week 6 Recap

We're basically halfway through the regular season, so it's time to start taking a closer look at the playoff situation.

Playoff Odds

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

History shows that teams that are 4-2 or better have a good chance of making the playoffs, and what do you know? We have exactly 6 teams at 4-2 or better. However, the newly refined FALAFEL playoff rules put a wrench in those odds. The top 5 seeds will be the 3 division winners and top 2 Wild Cards, which probably correlate well with history. We currently have a tie at the top of all three divisions, which is fantastic and should create some nice races through the second half. For the coveted 6th seed, it's looking like a runaway for Levine right now. He's two game out of first in his division, and while Gutman's outlook is currently bleak, it's very possible that Levine ends up below .500. The teams that are currently 3-3 or worse should be rooting hard for Levine to improve his record and at least get a Wild Card, because only Reap is within 100 points of Levine for the 6th seed right now.

If the playoffs started today:
1. Esco
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine


Trade Recap
Barnard receives CJ Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Jaron Brown, and Delanie Walker
Levine receives Jacquizz Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Greg Olsen
Lot of things going on here. In previous years, this trade would never have happened, because Levine would be too worried about his record to plan for the future. Instead, he has relative safety in at least the 6 seed, so he can afford to wait on Olsen. A playoff roster with Russ, Hunt/Ingram/Doug, Nuk/Keenan, and Olsen, along with a solid bench? We officially have a favorite this year. As for Barnard, he really had no choice. His RB situation was dire, and his TE injury luck has been brutal. He basically turned Hopkins into three starters, which is as good as you can do. I'm calling this a win-win.
Levine: A+
Barnard: B+


Team of the Week - Reap

I had mentally written off Reap's team after an extremely slow start, but he's somehow at 3-3 and just put up the most points in Week 6. He's unfortunately in a division with two 5-1 teams, but one of those teams just lost Zeke, and the other is Bennett, so he's still very much alive there. Worst case scenario, he's also the team best poised to take the sixth seed if Levine qualifies for the playoffs via division title or wild card. With the best RB duo in the league carrying an otherwise mediocre roster, Reap still looms as a potential playoff party crasher.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ravens D/ST over Jaguars D/ST
I haven't really brought this up, but my combo of D/STs are pretty much carrying me this year, and rank 1 and 3 in scoring so far at the position. My biggest problem, as it is with every other position for me, is picking which one to start. Up until Sunday I had Jacksonville starting, hoping to take advantage against Jared Goff and Co., but I made a last minute switch because I got scared of a Gurley game. It paid off with two punt return TDs that eventually carried me past Z.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Jamison Crowder over Adrian Peterson
I promised Belfer he would get this section on Sunday, and it has to hurt seeing this decision keeping him winless. Ellington put up a surprising goose egg, but he was at least a defensible start. Crowder is borderline rosterable at this point, so I probably would have started multiple other options over him, but starting a newly acquired AP is something most of us wouldn't have done. And most of us would have been wrong, as AP turned back the clock for a huge day. Belfer, even if you don't win a game this year, we can at least look back and say that you (probably) won the AP/Foreman swap with Weissbard.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Bennett is 5-1
I honestly don't know how this happened. His roster is fine, but not spectacular. His schedule has been easy, but still more difficult than 4-2 Gutman and 3-3 Ajay. Yet if he beats me this week, he'll be tied for the best start in recent FALAFEL history. Which unfortunately brings me to the next section...


Biggest Matchup of Week 7 - Bennett vs. Kumpf
I hate putting myself in here, and I really hate writing about Bennett, but here we are. From a bye/injury perspective, we're about even, both missing 1-2 potential starters. From a matchup perspective, neither of us has an overly easy or difficult slate. Talent-wise he has the higher ceiling, but I have the higher floor. This is probably my toughest call of the year for multiple reasons, but the possibility of Jordan Reed scoring a game-winning TD against Bennett's Eagles on MNF also costing him a fantasy win is too good to pass up. Looks like I done #Kursed myself.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-4


Gambling Corner


NFL Week 7 Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Raiders
Rams (-3) vs. Cardinals
Steelers (-5) vs. Bengals
Patriots (-3) vs. Falcons
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 16-11

NCAA Week 8 Bets
Iowa State (+7) at Texas Tech
Miami (-14) vs. Syracuse
Oregon (+7) at UCLA
Mississippi State (-10) vs. Kentucky
Last Week: 0-4-1
2017 Record: 11-14-2

Week 5 Recap

In a league where more than half the teams had the same record, I guess it's no surprise that we had the closest matchups in recent memory during Week 5. This made for some stressful Sundays/Mondays for most of the league, and also makes lineup decisions extremely difficult, though the specific lineup decisions facing each team varies wildly.

Here's each team's toughest lineup decision for Week 5, as well as whether they were right or wrong:
Alan: Frank Gore over  Tarik Cohen - Right
Kumpf: Mike Gillislee over Isaiah Crowell - Wrong
Ajay: Derrick Henry over Terrance West - Wrong
Weissbard: Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley - Right
Zacherman: Sterling Shepard over Allen Hurns - Wrong
Belfer: Matthew Stafford over Tyrod Taylor - Right
Bennett: Kenny Stills over Gio Bernard - Wrong
Levine: Doug Martin over LeGarrette Blount - Right
Barnard: Jacquizz Rodgers over Aaron Jones - Wrong
Gutman: Elijah McGuire over Kerwynn Williams - Right
Esco - Duke Johnson over Thomas Rawls - Right
Reap - Danny Amendola over Kendall Wright - Right
BAM - Alex Collins over Robby Anderson - Right
Marco - James White over Wayne Gallman - Wrong

Some of you cost yourselves a win with these choices, while others won in spite of them. With byes picking up this week, and injuries mounting, lineup decisions will play a huge role in determining who makes the playoffs and who joins Belfer in the cellar.

Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.


Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

After the playoff seeding thread this week, it occurred to me that the changes to our playoff qualification process means that this section is less predictive than it's been in previous years. Regardless, this week is most important for the 3-2 teams, me and Marco, while it offers the last gasp for Weissbard as our sole 1-4 team.


Team of the Week - Marco

This is mainly due to his trades paying as immediate a benefit as I've ever seen. He turned Charles Clay (now out for multiple weeks), Denver's D (he already has a top 10 D/ST in the Chiefs), and 27 auction dollars into James White, Adam Thielen, and Jason Witten, whose 26.5 points factored big in his 12 point win over BAM. He now sits in the second Wild Card spot by 15 points, which is remarkable given his performance at the draft.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard starting Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley

This was an obvious choice because Weissbard was literally asking people which one he should start on Sunday morning. He made the right choice, punctuated by a nasty Agholor juke on his long TD, and he's now in the win column. His team is still a joke (I legit have never heard of Corey Clement, yet Weiss was starting him), but at least he's not going 0-13.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Levine starting Latavius Murray over LeGarrette Blount

#Kursed. Chark West had the biggest day on Levine's bench, but he wasn't a realistic starter. Instead, Levine had the tough choice of Blount, who's top backups were injured, or Murray, who was newly promoted after injury. Murray's matchup was better, but the presence of McKinnon made the situation a little bit murky, especially on passing downs. Blount is usually TD-dependent, but without Smallwood and Sproles, the Eagles would have no choice but to give him the ball. I think this was ultimately a coin flip, but it was a costly choice for Levine. Luckily for him, the new playoff rules give him a 95 point lead for the 6th playoff spot, even if he loses close games every week.

Honorable mention to Barnard for bidding $69 for Aaron Jones, then benching him for Quizz.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck

Gutman won while scoring 58 points. His average opponent scores less than Belfer! He currently has the lead in a division with the highest scorer in the league, a super deep team that is destined for 7-6, and Alan and Weissbard. I highly doubt he can keep it up, especially with his RBs, but I thought that after Week 1 and he's gone 3-1 since then.


Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - Ajay vs. Barnard
Me and Z have a big matchup, but 1) I try not to put myself in this section and 2) Half his team is on a bye so I theoretically should get a relatively easy win. That leaves us with a divisional matchup that could seal the fate of the loser. Ajay's team has severely underproduced so far, but thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule (to Gutman), he still has two wins banked. As usual, Barnard has been perfectly mediocre, but his time with Quizz as a starter has run out, and he has enormous issues at RB2 and Flex. History tells us that there isn't a huge difference between 3-3 and 2-4, but with neither of these teams likely to earn the 6th seed in total points, this looks a lot like an elimination matchup. Ajay will get out to a nice lead with his TNF crew, and he also gets last licks with Sunday and/or Monday night players, but the easier matchups definitely go to Barnard. Honestly, the matchup probably comes down to Ty Montgomery. For the first time, I'm making a contingent prediction: If Montgomery is active, Ajay wins. If not, it's Barnard. Either way, you're both #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-4


Gambling Corner

NBA Win Total Bets
Celtics Under 55.5
Warriors Under 67.5
Nets Over 27.5
Hornets Over 42.5
Pistons Under 38.5
Pacers Over 31.5
76ers Under 41.5
Bucks Under 47.5
Grizzlies Under 37.5
Pelicans Over 39.5
Hawks Over 25.5
Mavericks Under 35.5
Jazz Over 41
Spurs Under 54.5
Blazers Under 42.5
Kings Under 27.5
Bulls Over 22
Raptors Under 48.5
Clippers Over 43.5
Lakers Under 33.5

NFL Week 6 Bets
Eagles (+3) at Panthers
Texans (-10) vs. Browns
Redskins (-10) vs. 49ers
Jaguars (-2) vs. Rams
Lines still not posted for Saints/Lions, Raiders/Chargers, and Titans/Colts. Blog will be updated if I bet on those.
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 14-9

NCAA Week 7 Bets
Florida State (-7) at Duke
Texas Tech (+4) at West Virginia
Oklahoma (-7) at Texas (neutral site)
Baylor (+26) at Oklahoma State
Oregon (+11) at Stanford
Last Week: 3-1-1
2017 Record: 11-10-1

Week 4 Recap

I don't think we've ever had a week where 12/14 teams were at .500 or better, but thanks to most of the league's general mediocrity, as well as Weissbard and Belfer's abject awfulness, here we are. A lot of this is just early season noise caused by unbalanced schedules, so breaking the league down by actual points scored, as well as a look forward, we're left with the following tiers:

True Contenders: Levine, Esco, Zacherman, Bennett
Need Some Help: Barnard, Gutman, Marco, Kumpf, Alan
No Idea: Ajay, BAM
There's Always Next Year: Weissbard, Reap, Belfer

Ajay and BAM are an interesting juxtaposition, because their teams are essentially opposites. I can in no way write them off, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong. But the most interesting tier is the one that needs help. Barnard and Gutman need RBs desperately, Marco and I could use some general talent upgrades, while Alan just needs his improbable RB rotation to keep producing. It's likely that two of these teams will join the top tier in the playoffs, but we're a long way from having any clarity there.

Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.


Playoff Odds

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs

After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

For the first time, we have an official elimination record this week, so if Weissbard or Belfer loses, they will face an uncharted road to the playoffs. It's also a week of decent delineation between 2 and 3 win teams, which is particularly important for our 8 2-2 teams, however we only have two matchups between them.


Trade Recap
Gutman receives Elijah McGuire
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Oh Gutman No. Marco took $27 waiver dollars, lit them on fire by spending them on the 3rd string RB for the Jets, then somehow took the ashes and flipped them for a startable WR. This is such a raping by Marco, and such an insane misread on the market by Gutman, that I'm tempted to adjust their tiers above. Good God Gutman.
Marco Grade: A+
Gutman Grade: F

Esco receives Charles Clay and Broncos D/ST
Marco receives James White and Jason Witten
Interesting trade here, I can't remember seeing a defense traded before, but Marco has now completely revamped his team after his blacked out draft strategy led to a very unbalanced team. On the heels of the trade above, Marco makes a nice upgrade at RB here, while making small downgrades at TE and D/ST. As for Esco, getting Denver's D takes him out of the streaming life, saving his waiver money for bigger fish. And while I'm not sold as Clay as a no-doubt starter at TE (he's absolutely getting hurt in the next two weeks), he's still an upgrade from Witten. I'm giving Esco the slight edge here based on this trade alone, but Marco's team is unquestionably stronger than it was last week.
Esco Grade: B+
Marco Grade: B-



Team of the Week - Zacherman

This was just total domination. It barely edges Levine for highest score on the season, but it also was the most complete performance by a team this year. The only thing more surprising than Sterling Shepard being Z's lowest scorer with 7.9 points is the fact that he could have added another 8.7 points if he started Eli.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah over Crowell or Martavis

I fucking hate picking my starting lineup each week, but I finally got one right. No other great calls this week.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer :(

In a must-win matchup, if Belfer started either Cooper Kupp or Mike Wallace over Jamison Crowder, he would have easily beaten Alan (who benched Bilal Powell). Instead he was rewarded with negative points from Crowder and is still winless on the year. Honorable mention to Marco picking wrong in his Alex Smith vs. Philip Rivers QB controversy.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Ajay

It doesn't seem like anyone will challenge Billy's Week 1 futility, but Ajay put up a shockingly terrible performance this week. One of my preseason Stevens Bowl picks because of his depth, this is what happens when a deep team takes a collective dump. On the bright side, at least you didn't make any terrible lineup decisions?


Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - Bennett vs. Levine
It's baaaaack! After a brief success to start the year, the #Kurse is back with a vengeance. There were no great 2-2 matchups this week, so I'm picking a matchup between contenders who have had very different luck this year. After Levine made the playoffs with a bottom-three scoring team last year, his luck has completely regressed this year. Not only is he an unlucky 2-2, but he lost Dalvin Cook to a brutal ACL injury last week. I wasn't surprised in the least to see that he already had Latavius locked up, so I don't see a huge drop off moving forward, even with Ingram and CJ on byes. Bennett losing Sanders and Fat Rob to byes should hurt a lot more, so I'm gonna pick my apparent rival to start turning his luck around this week. Levine, you've been #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3


Gambling Corner

Before getting to this week's picks, I want to add a small disclaimer. While I'm not saying you should be using my weekly bets as actual betting advice, I do have some advice you should take: NBA and MLB win totals. With baseball season just ending, I hit on 18 of the 26 win total over/under bets I made, and over the last three years I've hit on 68%. I'll publish those next year if anyone is interested in free money.

Speaking of free money, I'll also list my NBA win total bets next week, where I'm over 75% in the last three years. As for NFL win totals, my Rams over 5.5 and Giants under 9 bets look good, but I also have the Chargers over 7.5 and  Lions under 8. Historically, I'm right at 50% in the NFL, which loses money after the vig.

NFL Week 5 Bets
Eagles (-6) vs. Cardinals
Bills (+3) at Bengals
Jets (Pick) at Browns
Packers (+2) at Cowboys
Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Last Week: 2-3
2017 Record: 10-8

NCAA Week 6 Bets
Duke (+3) at Virginia
Florida State (+4) at Miami
LSU (+4) at Florida
Texas A&M (+27) vs. Alabama
Arizona (+7) at Colorado
Last Week: 0-4
2017 Record: 8-9

Week 3 Recap

Last week was a Murphy's Law weekend for me. Lost this league matchup without breaking 30 until SNF, lost my other three leagues (including one by 0.18), had my first rough betting week, and Miami lost to the fucking Jets. It can only get better from here, at least that's what I'm telling myself. Belfer and Weissbard also had rough weekends, falling to 0-3. This type of performance is somewhat familiar for Weissbard, as he has the second lowest PAA among active FALAFEL teams, and he ran into Gutman's buzzsaw, but this is entirely new territory for Belfer. After enjoying a top-4 PAA while teamed with Reap, he's reeling after falling to a Marco team that couldn't even crack 75.

Kudos to Zacherman, who not only named his division in the last week, but also picked the best (worst) division so far. He does have three teams above .500, but the average points scored in his division is 253.56, coming in behind BAM (264.3) and Alan (280.36). Alan is obviously the worst here, and he also hasn't named his division yet.

Finally, there's nothing quite like watching Gutman sweat things out as an undefeated team. He's fully aware that his team is a house of cards, and is hoping that no one else realizes it, giving him the ability to swing a trade. Unfortunately for him, he's terrified to trade Rodgers, and knows that no one is paying full price for his Viking receivers. He thought that no one would bid on Wendell Smallwood, because he's Philly's RB3, giving Gutman some "inside" information (full disclosure: Barnard had no idea who Wendell Smallwood was until I asked why he didn't bid on him). Right before waivers processed, Esco sent an inflammatory message in GroupMe, causing Gut to increase his bid from ~$40 to $83, using over 40% of his budget on a player who's not starting on his own team. Like I said, a successful and paranoid Gutman is the best Gutman, though honorable mention goes to Fat Gutman and Food Stamps Gutman (RIP).


Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs

This is always the weird week for playoff odds thanks to Gutman's miracle playoff run from 0-4 a few years back, as well as the fact that no 3-0 team has ever lost the next week. But it's also a big week for delineation, because the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 is pretty large. We currently have five teams at 1-2, so history says the season could already be on the line. None of these five play each other, so we should know a lot more about those teams next week.


Trade Recap
Belfer receives Adrian Peterson
Weissbard receives D'Onta Foreman

LOL. This is obviously a desperation trade between winless teams, but I actually think this was a raping by Weissbard. Peterson has been barely involved on the Saints so far, and it would likely take injuries to both Ingram and Kamara for me to feel comfortable starting him. On the other side, Foreman is already splitting time with Lamar Miller, and could be flex-worthy by later in the season even without injury to Miller.
Belfer Grade: D-
Weissbard Grade: B+


Team of the Week - Alan

Our defending champ gets in the winning column in impressive fashion, taking down undefeated Levine and putting up the weekly high score. He did this all with two arms tied behind his back, as his TE and D/ST combined for 0.6 points. After a rough start to the season, it's encouraging to see guys like Palmer, Cooks, and Baldwin put up big numbers. As mentioned though, this week is also borderline must-win against a truly desperate Belfer team.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Tarik Cohen over Chris Johnson

No one made an amazing decision, but I could see Alan trying to justify his absurd spending on CJ by starting him over Cohen (an extremely savvy pickup post-draft by our defending champ). But he stuck with logic it gave him the win.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Donte Moncrief over Sammy Watkins

There were a lot of terrible lineup decisions this week (Esco, Belfer, Levine and I also cost ourselves wins), but most of them are justifiable. I honestly have no idea what Barnard was thinking here. I would argue that Donte Moncrief is more deserving of being on waivers than he is of being in anyone's starting lineup. Sammy isn't a no-doubt start, but this was terrible.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM!

In my draft recap, I gave this team an F and said "This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss." Well, this is what is looks like when they explode. BAM's top four would have outscored 5 other teams on their own this week. It's not likely to happen every week, but given this type of potential, along with a solid waiver pickup in Buck Allen, and I'm not completely writing this duo off yet.


Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Gutman vs. Esco

No obvious choices here this week, so I'll go with the showdown between two of the three highest scoring teams, along with my last two (losing) Matchup of the Week picks. The QB matchup leans heavily towards Gutman, who should get out to a nice early lead thanks to Rodgers. I like the overall depth of Esco's team better, but Gut has slightly better matchups this week. Going into MNF, Tyreek Hill should be a big-game away from taking the lead, but standing in his way is...Chris Thompson? The surprising RB3 on the year will have the chance to ice Gutman's lead, and given the way this year has gone so far, I'm not betting against him. The #Kurse isn't officially back yet, but if Gut loses, I'm ready to bust it out next week.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-2


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 4 Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Bears
Patriots (-9) vs. Panthers
Titans (-1) at Texans
Eagles (Pick) at Chargers
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Last Week: 2-4
2017 Record: 8-5

NCAA Week 5 Bets
Duke (+7) vs. Miami
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Northwestern
Iowa (+4) at Michigan State
Virginia Tech (+8) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 8-5

Week 2 Recap

It always feels good to get your first win of the year. I felt like it had been awhile since I started 1-0 in this league, and even though we don't have the 2012 league page, I discovered that I haven't led off with a win since 2011! For reference, that year Kimmel was in the league, Gutman's team name referenced Curb Your Enthusiasm (which is luckily relevant again), and Nick's team name referenced Jerry Sandusky (which is unluckily relevant again). Regardless, I'm on the board after two weeks, something that can't be said for Weissbard, Alan, BAM, and Belfer. Better luck this week guys.

Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.


Playoff Odds

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.


Team of the Week - Gutman

Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen

No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns

Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?

Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.


Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett

Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1

NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5

Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.

Week 1 Recap

Week 1 is always weird, for obvious reasons, but this feels like the weirdest Week 1 in fantasy history. The top two picks by a long shot were DJ and LeVeon, and not only did they wildly disappoint, but DJ is now gone for at least 2 months, and more likely the season considering the Cardinals won't have much to play for in December. The rest of the top guys didn't really show up either, other than Antonio Brown, and of the top eleven Week 1 scorers, 4 of them are defenses. I think a lot of this boils down to terrible O-Line play, as that doomed the offenses in Cincy, Houston, Seattle, and Washington among others. Lines tend to play better over the course of the season, so things aren't settled yet, but I feel like this season will be determined by which O-Line can keep its shit together and stay healthy.

Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.

Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.


Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.

After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."


Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.


Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0

NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2