Draft Preview

If I wasn’t so busy at work, this would officially go down as the most useless week of my life. Not only do we have Vegas in a couple days, but we get to have a fantasy draft while we’re there? That much fun shouldn’t be legal, but if there’s no open-container laws in Sin City then I guess this is par for the course. I’m straying from my usual format for this draft preview, but the Power Rankings you know and love will return before Week 1. Here are a few reminders that I’m copying and pasting from last year’s Draft Preview:

1. If you have done an auction or mock auction before, skip to #2 (Alan keep reading). Just a reminder of the way the actual draft will be. Each team gets $200 to fill out their roster. You can bid as much as you want on each player up to your “max bid,” which won’t matter early on, but definitely will towards the end. A major benefit of having the draft online is that Yahoo! won’t let you bid over the max, so you don’t have to keep track of it yourself. Yahoo will randomly order the league in a nomination queue and once the draft starts players will be nominated by owners in that order. When a player is nominated there will be 30 seconds to make initial bids. Once the timer gets down to 5 seconds the whole “Going once, going twice, SOLD!” thing happens. If someone makes a higher bid during that time, the timer resets to 10 seconds and the process continues until no one makes a higher bid. Then the player goes to the highest bidder and everyone rips on him for overpaying.

2. I’m sure most, if not all of you, have been doing research as to how much each player is worth. Most magazines and websites provide “suggested auction values” for all players. While looking at them is valuable, those numbers will not apply for us. Not even close. Those numbers are typically based on a 10 team league or possibly 12. So they’re dealing with $2000 or $2400 total to spend on players. Our league will have $2800 to spend, and 2-4 additional rosters to fill up, while the player pool stays the same. While I did absurdly shitty in Econ 101, 102, 321 and 521, I’m pretty sure that when demand goes up and supply stays the same, prices rise. I’ve done a lot of research to try to determine a “market value” as best as I can for the players in our league and I still don’t have anything I’m confident in (2011 Addendum: you can look at how much players went for in our league last year on the 2010 league site). But I will say that paying close to $100 (2011 Addendum: $80) for AP or CJ is not as ridiculous as it sounds, because kickers, (most) defenses, and nearly all backups will be $1. Keep that in mind, especially you Jews out there.

3. Another factor to keep in mind, that I’ve never actually seen discussed in terms of draft strategy, is loyalty. If a player did particularly well for an owner last year, there’s a good chance that the owner will want him back. While over-valuing a player is not as big of an issue in a snake draft, it can be huge in an auction, as you literally get to determine how much a player is worth. Just another aspect to complicate things for us.

And that’s me quoting me!

Now for the 2011 Mock Auction. One more reminder from last year, for each member of our league, I will be predicting the players most likely to end up on their team. Some will be real, some will be jokes. Some will be funny, some will be insulting, some will be neither. All of them will make me enjoy my work day more than I normally would, and I hope the same applies to all of you.

Kumpf
Most likely to draft: Daniel Thomas. He’s on my favorite team and he’s a rookie so the sky’s the limit. What’s not to like other than the pick-6 machine at QB?
Other probables: Roddy White, Jermichael Finley, Derek Wallace
Will not draft: Ray Rice. Remember how he was the most expensive player last year? Knowing you jackasses I don’t see that changing, so be ready to be “stuck” with him when I back down.

Ajay
Most likely to draft: Rob Gronkowski. He needs to have a Patriot on his team, but the RB and WR situations are a bit muddled right now in New England. Hernandez is there to steal some looks, but I can see Brown Man X nabbing Gronkowski for $2.
Other probables: Rashard Mendenhall, Shane Falco, Dez Bryant
Will not draft: Anyone on the Bears, so he can be “that guy” in the Chicago bars on Sundays who’s just rooting against the Bears no matter who they’re playing.

AGD
Most likely to draft: LaDainian Tomlinson. Last year they spent big bucks on Shonn Greene only to watch him produce less than his backfield-mate. I think this year they try to counteract that and outbid Z for LT at around $12.
Other probables: Mike Williams, Mike Williams, Steve Smith, Steve Smith
Will not draft: A quarterback for more than $50. Live and learn.

Zacherman
Most likely to draft: No one in the first hour. That was his strategy last year and he came within a garbage time sack on MNF of a perfect regular season, and lost in the championship. Whether he wants to admit it or not, he was the Patriots of our league last year, a role he embraced.
Other probables: Dustin Keller, John Connor, Rex Ryan’s tattoo
Will not draft: Brad Smith. He's gonna regret leaving the Jets.

Weissbard
Most likely to draft: No one. He’ll go to bed and forget to set his alarm for the draft, sleep through it, and have Yahoo pick his players. And, if history has taught us anything, he’ll win the Stevens Cup.

I’m gonna pause for a minute here to talk to Dan. All of us sitting in cubicles appreciate anything that can take our mind off work, so a travel journal from Israel would seem like a great idea. But I gotta say I’m a little disappointed thus far. I don’t expect to hear about raging threesomes with Israeli models, but here are some things I would like:
• Smaller paragraphs. I see a huge block of text and I tend to just ignore it. Probably why I did so well in college.
• More pranks. We all know you and how you like to fuck with people, I’m sure you have ample opportunities abroad.
• Less information about you sharing a bed with another dude, and what that dude’s sleeping habits are.
• More puking on yourself
• Less sentences like “I actually bought a book which as sad as it is, is quite the accomplishment for me. Turned out to be a pretty bad book but it passed the time.” If you opened the book and a used condom fell out, include that. Otherwise exclude all literature references.
• More trying to type in a British accent that I guarantee everyone who read it assumed was from Boston or Brooklyn.

I don’t ask for much, just a little more than the bare-minimum effort that I have come to expect from you, as most people expect from me. Snapping back to reality…

Other probables: Mario Manningham, Sage Rosenfels, Chalky Studebaker
Will not draft: LeSean McCoy

Gutman
Most likely to draft: Vince Young. After losing an epic bidding war for Vick, Gutguy will attempt to “outsmart” the rest of the league and take Vick’s backup for when the Dog Killer inevitably gets hurt. Can’t say I argue with the strategy.
Other probables: Junior Floyd, Tim Hightower, Jeremy Maclin
Will not draft: Kevin Kolb

Donaldson
Most likely to draft: Provided he actually joins the league, the Don will be taking both Bradshaw and Jacobs for his RBs. I think taking both sides of a RB committee and spending the rest of your money on a top QB and stud WRs is actually a good strategy, though I doubt anyone has the balls to do it.
Other probables: Jeremy Shockey, Chris Calloway, Luther Lavay
Will not draft: Desean Jackson

Esco
Most likely to draft: LeGarrette Blount. Seems like an Esco pick to me. Also, I think you were the closest I’ve seen to using both sides of the RB committee with Run DMC and Bush, but I don’t think you were planning on doing that on draft day so it doesn’t count.
Other probables: Rod Tidwell, Dallas Clark, Calvin Johnson
Will not draft: Chris Johnson

Billy
Most likely to draft: I can see Billy’s draft going one of two ways. Either he’s sober and trying to make a good first impression as the new league member, so he’s patient and takes someone like Stephen Jackson with his first pick. The other option is he’s shit-faced and bids $135 on Arian Foster.
Other probables: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice, passing out before the draft is over
Will not draft: A defense

Kimmel
Most likely to draft: Plaxico Burress. After that performance against the Bungles, Plax’s value is never gonna be higher. Perfect time for someone to overpay for him.
Other probables: Derrick Mason, Mark Brunell, Sal Alosi
Will not draft: Brandon Marshall

Barnard
Most likely to draft: Whoever he thinks I want. Seriously no one is worse at trying to deceptively see where my head is at. For the past two weeks he has repeatedly said stuff like “I already know who I want, but out of curiosity what are you thinking?” and “I would never take your advice but please tell me who you think is gonna be good this year.” I’ve been giving him a mix of real and fake advice, so we’ll see who he ends up with.
Other probables: Stevan Ridley, Terrelle Pryor, Sunshine
Will not draft: Beanie Wells. At least not for $41.

Joseph
Most likely to draft: Hakeem Nicks. After last year’s debacle where his team was stacked, missed the playoffs, and was loaded with players on teams he hated, I’m positive Joseph will make this year’s team one he can root for at the very least.
Other probables: Marshawn Lynch, Ernie Davis, Kevin Boss
Will not draft: Any Cowboys or Eagles.

Bennett
Most likely to draft: Vick. The one lock of this whole draft is Bennett spending whatever it takes to land the man he’s been jerking it to for months. I think the sole reason he’s not coming to Vegas is so he won’t have to face everyone’s reaction when he goes over $80 for a convicted felon who will be lucky to play 6 games. I honestly can’t wait.
Other probables: Brent Celek, Ronnie Brown, Vince Papale
Will not draft: McNabb. You leave the Eagles and you’re dead to Bennett.

Alan
Most likely to draft: Adrian Peterson. Alan’s entire goal in the draft is to not make any picks that will get him ridiculed, so AP is a safe bet. Once the “sure things” are off the market, he’ll sit there and wait to see who bids on people. If someone he respects makes a bid for someone, Alan will follow suit until his roster is full. I just hope he does all this in a deep V.
Other probables: Reggie Wayne, Drew Brees, Vernon Davis
Will not draft: Tim Tebow

We’ll revisit this next week to see how well I did, but before that…

Vegas.
Baby.
Vegas.

Winter Meetings Apology

Coming Soon...

2011 Draft Preview will be published on Tuesday August 23rd.

Be on the lookout for a video to be posted some time next week.