Friday, September 18, 2015

Week 1 Recap/Week 2 Preview

What a weird first week of the season. Lot's of injuries, lots of studs not performing well, and lots of TDs for TEs. I somehow went 0-6 in fantasy, but 5-0-1 (now 6-0-1) in gambling, which makes absolutely no sense, but is a good proxy for what type of week it was. I'm hoping that things even out this week, if only so that my impromptu speech at Barnard's wedding won't come off in poor taste. Well it will definitely be in poor taste, but it will be easier to get away with at 1-1 than 0-2.

Week 1 Recap:

In the "Game of the Week", neither team broke 85, and Donnie is the current Hot Potato thanks to apparently drafting Archie Manning as his QB. So let's take a look at the actual best game of the week:

Levine (99) over BAM (95.6)

Things started out rough right off the bat for Billy and Marshall, with the Colts getting destroyed, Miami failing to blow out the Skins, and Cam Newton forgetting that he has literally one person worth throwing the ball to. A couple of garbage time TDs made Luck's day respectable, and Jarvis Landry's punt return TD was a nice double dip, somewhat salvaging the 1pm games for BAM while Levine got a great performance from the Carolina D and a middling day for Alshon.

The 4pm games is where it looked like BAM put things away. Ingram and John Brown were solid enough, both hitting double digits, but they had to be happy watching AJ Green struggle, as well as Bishop Sankey putting up 20+ on Levine's bench. A seemingly innocent TD by Eric Ebron didn't seem like it would make much of a difference. More on that later...

BAM went into SNF up 75.3-55, with DeMarco and Mike Wallace still to play, likely feeling very confident. When Dez went down early, it looked like that closed the book for Levine. Romo responded with a great finish, but if Eli had literally just fallen down, he wouldn't have gotten the chance to put up another 6 points. More on that later...

Heading into MNF, Levine had taken the lead 99-75.3. Not a small margin, but with DeMarco taking on one of the worst defenses in the league, as well as whatever Mike Wallace has to offer, BAM had to be cautiously optimistic. And then...8 carries for 9 yards? Even two TDs couldn't save the day for Murray, and despite Wallace catching an insane (for him) 6 of 7 targets, Levine wins the week.

Best Start of the Week: Barnard starting Benny Cunningham (12.2) over Fred Jackson (2.9)/Bilal Powell (7.8). This section will typically be populated by someone who won themself a game by making the correct call in a tough lineup decision. Granted, Barnard's decision was only really tough because he drafted horribly, but I digress. Benny Cunningham shouldn't be in the NFL, and playing him against Seattle's D had the potential for a goose egg. If Barnard got stage fright and went conservative, he loses to Zacherman. He made the right call, in a classic blind squirrel/nut situation.

Worst Benching of the Week: Gutman benching James Jones (17.1) for Malcom Floyd (2.9). This section will typically be populated by someone who cost themself a win with a questionable decision. Gutman is totally fucked at WR. Kendall Wright seems to have a connection with Mariota, but I think Gutman's high school team could put up 30 points on Tampa, so that remains to be seen. At the other slot, you had a tough decision, but Malcom Floyd is never the answer. In situations like this, you need to start the guy with the highest upside. Great job picking up Jones. Too bad you were too much of a pussy to use him.

Week 1 (and Overall) Hot Potato: Donnie - 69.1
Week 1 Scoring Leader: Esco - 138


We only have two matchups of teams that won last week, and it's shockingly Alan vs. Bennett and Barnard vs. Esco. Seeing as the winner of those matchups will be looking pretty good at 2-0, I need to feature one of them, which is pretty much the opposite of Sophie's Choice. I was comparatively nice to Barnard earlier, so I'll give him an early wedding gift and talk about him some more

Week 2 Preview: Barnard (1-0) vs. Esco (1-0)

QB: Esco's gamble on Brady paid off in a big way last week, but things could change quickly in Week 2. Since the dawn of time, the way to get Brady to play poorly is to make him move his feet, and Buffalo blitzed the shit out of Luck last week. The Pats O-Line isn't great, so I wouldn't expect another 20+ points from Tom. However, you're going up against the biggest QB clusterfuck in the league, so even if Carson has a good day against the Bears, I would expect both Kaepernick and Mariota to outscore him, as Barnard will never pick the right QB. Edge: Esco.

RB: Until Barnard gets Bell back (and potentially after that), he automatically loses this category, but we can't gloss over Esco's RB situation. I've been an Ivory fan for years, but I wasn't high on Forte this year, and thought Abdullah would take few weeks to win the job, but things look different now. Forte was Chicago's entire offense, and even if that offense isn't great, it still means lots of fantasy points. As for Abdullah, he looks extremely legit. With Blount and Mathews on his bench, Esco has the deepest stable of RBs in the league. Big Edge: Esco.

WR: Hilton's injury is definitely unfortunate for the Nard Dog, but Watkins should bounce back after being completely shut down by Vontae Davis. I would assume the trio of Fitz/Marshall/Watkins will technically outscore Hopkins and VJax, but there's only one stud here. Ryan Mallet must think that Hopkins looks like his Meth dealer, because he only throws the ball that way. Slight Edge: Esco.

TE: I'm going to pretend that the Chiefs didn't already play, and talk about how absurdly good Kelce looked last week. With a competent QB, Kelce could be the next Gronk, minus all the weird shit. He was the focus of Denver's D last night, and didn't find the endzone, but he's still better than Charles Clay. Big Edge: Barnard.

D/ST: I'll cover the Broncos D in a minute, but most of the time this decision will be based on matchups. Houston is playing a Panthers team relying on Ted Ginn and Jericho Cotchery, and they also have J.J. Watt. STL is going up against human turnover machine Kirk Cousins and has Aaron Donald, the scariest man in the NFL not named Watt. Barring a defensive TD, I think this will be close, but I'll give it to the best front four in the league. Slight Edge: Esco.

Verdict: With his perpetual depth, the weakest time of the year for Esco's teams is usually September. If he gets off to a hot start, I fully expect him to get a bye, which is no bueno for the rest of us. If he was a nice guy, he would give Barnard a win as a wedding gift, but we all know who we're talking about. Winner: Esco.

2015 Record: 0-1


Best Pickup of the Week: Chris Johnson for $41 by BAM. Not a lot of great value on the waiver wire this week, but CJ?K is the starter for at least the next couple of weeks in Arizona, potentially longer given that Andre Ellington is not good at football even when he's healthy. This type of situation usually costs upwards of $70 in auctions, so I'm calling $41 a value, even if CJ plays like he has for the last few years. More starting RBs is never a bad thing, especially when it comes to trades.

Worst Pickup of the Week: Broncos D for $21 by Esco. No backup defense is worth over 10% of our season-long budget, I don't care if it's the '85 Bears. I had this written before the game last night, and even though they put up 20, I stand by it. You're also the early front-runner for "Worst Benching of Week 2" because YOU DIDN'T EVEN START THEM! Honorable mention to Barnard spending $8 on his 3rd QB in a league that only starts one.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Week 1 Preview

I said that I'd be back this year as FALAFEL's resident blogger, but what I didn't mention is that our beloved CPP is not coming back with me. I know that you're all wildly depressed, but it turns out that maintaining a borderline useless statistic is more time consuming than it's worth. Instead, I'll use this space to recap the best matchup(s) of the previous week, as well as preview the big games in the upcoming week. This does create the possibility that I won't discuss someone's team throughout the entire season, if they aren't a part of any big games, but I'm sure I'll find ways to work Barnard into the discussion in other ways.

With no other scientific way of determining the biggest game of the week, I'll go by the closest/highest scoring prediction by our friends at ESPN.

Week 1 Preview: Donny vs. Joseph

QB: This matchup includes some of the biggest names in the game, and brings with it a huge range of outcomes. That starts at the QB position, with a supposedly 100% Peyton Manning taking on a supposedly 100% Sam Bradford. Bradford has the better matchup, but Peyton put up 7 TDs on opening day against Baltimore two years ago. Things have changed since then, but not enough for me to pick against Peyton. Cut that meat. Edge: Donny

RB: If Arian was healthy, this would be close. If Arian was healthy, he also wouldn't have gone for as cheap in the draft. And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Marshawn is the obvious big name here, but Isaiah Crowell just got a boost with the trade of Terrance West. Until Duke Johnson gets up to speed, I like Donny's RB combo as much as most in the league. As for Nick, I'm sure that Yeldon and Gordon will have great careers, but in their first NFL games, my hopes aren't too high. Edge: Donny

WR: This is Nick's bread and butter. Dez, Julio and Andre will take down any WR trio in the league, and that includes his holiness Odell Beckham. Donny's only hope here is that a banged up Roddy can capitalize on Julio's double teams. I don't like those odds. Big Edge: Joseph

TE: Not a lot to like here. Whoever scores likely wins. I'll take Larry. Slight Edge: Donny

D/ST: Two solid defenses playing two great offenses. Home field advantage tips it in Zona's favor. Slight Edge: Joseph

Verdict: If Crowell can seize control of the carries in Cleveland and Roddy can stay healthy, then I think Donny is a playoff team. This is his first step. Winner: Donny

Next week I'll have more content, but not a lot has changed since the draft. Until then we can all appreciate the lineup that Barnard is trotting out this week. Zac Stacy!

Friday, September 4, 2015

2015 Draft Recap: You're In Carcosa Now

My hands stopped shaking on Tuesday, and I stopped walking with a limp on Thursday, so I think I can safely say I'm now recovered from New Orleans. It's been said over and over, but amazing job planning by the Adams and amazing job not showing up by Barnard. That was definitely a draft to remember, and one that I actually remember more than 50% of, which is a first.

And now, after taking a year off for nuptial duties, I'm back with my annual Draft Recap gimmick: assigning quotes to people and teams that are somewhat relevant to where we just drafted. Four years ago it was The Hangover for Vegas, followed by country music lyrics for Nashville, and then Forrest Gump quotes for Savannah. This year I was surprised at the relative lack of movies set in New Orleans. There are scenes from a lot of movies that were filmed in NOLA, but most of them are thrillers, like The Pelican Brief and Runaway Jury, which doesn't really lend itself to this exercise. The front runner is probably A Streetcar Named Desire, or just using jazz lyrics, but both of those are somewhat depressing.

So that leaves me with a show that didn't take place in The Big Easy at all, but was still full of that bayou flavor. And also full of McConaughey, which is always a good thing. Without further ado, our 2015 Draft Recap, set to quotes from Season One of True Detective.

Detective Rust Cohle: What do you think the average IQ of this group is, huh? Detective Martin Hart: Can you see Texas up there on your high horse? What do you know about these people? Detective Rust Cohle: Just observation and deduction. I see a propensity for obesity. Poverty. A yen for fairy tales. Folks puttin' what few bucks they do have into a little wicker basket being passed around. I think it's safe to say nobody here's gonna be splitting the atom, Marty. 

This quote goes to all of the non-league members at the draft. Woods, Katz, Frink, ARy, Kallman and Marco (and Ivan), I appreciate your dedication of sitting in a college bar for 4 hours playing shuffleboard, but I also pity you for not coming up with literally anything else to do during that time. That said, the more the merrier at these events, and for the most part your presence was appreciated. But none of you are gonna be splitting the atom.


Detective Martin Hart: Do you wonder ever if you're a bad man?
Detective Rust Cohle: No. I don't wonder, Marty. World needs bad men. We keep the other bad men from the door.

This goes to our commissioner and resident asshole, Joseph. The world needs bad men and this league needs an asshole. It's not going to be nearly as enjoyable to hear Nick's rants when he doesn't have a team in the hunt. That would be like Lowe making fun of Barnard's RB situation. You want to be like Lowe, Nick? As for your team, I like the double barreled WR stud approach, as it worked well for me last year in terms of total points. However I still missed the playoffs, and I spent about $20 less on my guys last year. Combining that with $22 potentially lit on fire for Arian Foster, and I can easily see you starting 0-4. I like the Tannehill value though.


Detective Rust Cohle: Do I strike you as a talker or a doer, Steve?

This one-liner goes to last year's runner-up, Levine. I don't think he spoke one word during the entire draft, yet as usual he walked away with a very deep team. His collection of RBs likely won't scare anyone on their own, but if one of the Cowboys or Giants guys emerges as a stud, he's going to be competitive on a weekly basis. This is a playoff team for sure.


Detective Rust Cohle: This place is like somebody's memory of a town, and the memory is fading. It's like there was never anything here but jungle.

Detective Martin Hart: Stop saying shit like that. It's unprofessional.

Can't you just picture Billy and Marshall having this conversation? I don't know who is who, but it doesn't even really matter. Our most absurd team lived up to their billing last weekend, with Marshall consuming at least 72 raw oysters in 48 hours, and Billy projectile vomiting off a swamp tour boat. As for their team, in Billy's words, "Our strategy was to go big on runningbacks. Going big on quarterback was an impulse." I'm wary to ever bet against this team, and even after going all in on QB/RB, they have a pretty solid group of receivers to choose from, not to mention Greg Olsen, who could easily finish as TE2. This is playoff team #2.


Detective Rust Cohle: Can you get pills pretty easy?
[inhales deeply on cigarette] 
Detective Rust Cohle: Relax, I want some.
Lucy: Speed?

Detective Rust Cohle: No! Quaaludes, anything barbital.

This goes to Z for obvious reasons, but also because he accidentally bought coke, which just an amazing sentence to type. That seems like something that should happen to Alan, not someone as... experienced as Z-Ball. Your team is three players deep, and one of those players lost his favorite weapon. If this was 2012, I'd say your team is a contender, but I just don't see a lot here outside of the top guys, despite great value on Colston and Steve Smith. $14 for Owen Daniels?!?


Detective Rust Cohle: I'd consider myself a realist, alright? But in philosophical terms I'm what's called a pessimist.

Poor Gutman. If anyone else even had a slight internet connection issue, we paused the entire draft. Gutman spent 29% of his money on a Tight End, which is just absurd, and he was on autobid at the time. I've never known Gut to be a huge fan of his teams after the draft, but this one seems to be a new low. On the bright side, 16 games of Brady should definitely help, and I'm a big fan of the CJ/Forsett/Blue trio at RB. On the down side, Malcom Floyd and Kendall Wright are your starting WRs, and you spent $58 on a Tight End.


Detective Martin Hart: Shit, man, look, I've noticed you have a tendency toward myopia, tunnel vision... blows investigations... vision skews, twists evidence. You're... You're obsessive.
Detective Rust Cohle: You're obsessive too, just not about the job.
Detective Martin Hart: Not me, brother. I keep things... even, separate. Like the way I can have just one beer without needing 20.
Detective Rust Cohle: People incapable of guilt usually do have a good time.

This exchange goes to the Bennett/Mejia duo, which clearly needs a nickname. I have to say, I thoroughly and surprisingly enjoyed hanging out with a wasted Bennett in NOLA. I don't think I even spoke to him when he was sober, but Wasted Bennett is a good guy, get to know him. As for Mejia, his $2 bid on Green Bay's defense when they already had a D was a microcosm of what it's like to have Mejia involved in anything. Your team is silly deep at receiver, which could make us trade partners in the future, but lacking at RB and TE. Regardless, considering you were each 5 shots deep before the draft started, and starting out at an already low level of fantasy competence, I don't hate your team.


Detective Rust Cohle: Life's barely long enough to get good at one thing. So be careful what you get good at.

This goes to Donny, and is actually not in reference to his quoting ability. Well it is in reference to that, but it's also in reference to his buyer's remorse over spending $30 on Peyton. It's always nice to have Peyton on your team, but it comes at a price. And that price is having to start Isaiah Crowell at RB2 and Roddy at your Flex. Marshawn will be a no doubt stud, but you're putting a lot of faith in the health of Peyton and your lord and savior Odell Beckham. Good luck.


Detective Ani Bezzerides: I don't know...I mean can I say? I just really like big dicks. No, it's not just length. Everyone's always talking length. But, I mean that's fine. I mean...girth too. I really want to have trouble handcuffing the thing.

This goes to Barnard for so many reasons. One, I mean, come on. Two, he wasn't in NOLA, so he doesn't get a NOLA quote. Three, no one liked True Detective Season Two. But most importantly, he really does have trouble handcuffing. Your RB situation is already sub-par even when Bell is playing, but you basically punted the first two games of the season. Outside of RB, I like TY Hilton, but other than that, it's basically the Barnard equivalent of a fantasy team. Don't show Alexis your roster, or the wedding may be called off.


Detective Rust Cohle: Are you watching me sleep?
Detective Marty Hart: You know what, I just got here. I was gonna leave, but then you woke up. Jesus, what's your fucking problem.
Detective Rust Cohle: Nothing much of a problem.
Detective Marty Hart: Not a care in the world.

This exchange goes to our champs, who not only most likely watch each other sleep, but also currently have two chef coats and not a care in the world. This in until the season starts, because outside of Lacy, this team is the definition of meh. There's some nice lotto tickets here with Bryant, Funchess and Cobb, but it would require more than one of those to hit for you to repeat. At least you have the most expensive kicker and defense! And the aforementioned chef coats, which may well have been the peak of your lives.


Detective Rust Cohle: I'm not supposed to be here.
Detective Marty Hart: Yea... well, I'll come back by tomorrow buddy.
Detective Rust Cohle: Why?
Detective Marty Hart: Don't ever change man.

This goes to Alan, who has repeatedly tried to leave the league as well, just so we'll beg him to stay, and he can sheepishly accept our request. Everyone knows he won't leave, but the first ever Stevens Bowl Champ refuses to change. Also, in NOLA he didn't change his shirt, so this is doubly appropriate. Your team is interesting. It seems like your sole purpose was to fuck over Barnard, and to that I tip my cap to you sir. But once his RBs are playing, that means yours are not. I think we can all appreciate falling on the sword to prevent Barnard's success, but you may have taken it to an extreme. Rodgers/Graham/Antonio will win you some weeks by themselves, but if any of them falters, you're probably going to lose.


Detective Rust Cohle: Well, I can't say the job made me this way. More like bein' this way made me right for the job. I used to think about it more, but you reach a certain age, you know who you are. Now, I live in a little room out in the country behind a bar... work four nights a week... in between I drink. And there ain't nobody there to stop me. I know who I am. And after all these years, there's a... victory in that.

For as long as I can remember, Esco has drafted the same way. Never splurging on a top-tier stud, and then raking up all the $15 players he wants while the rest of us are out of money. It won him a chef's coat two years ago, and put him in last place last year. That's a pretty huge range of outcomes, but he is who he is. This year he mini-splurged on Forte, then hung back and pulled in four RBs, Torrey Smith, and as it turns out, Tom Brady, at huge bargains. RB2 and Flex are going to be tough decisions each week, but I think this is another playoff team.


Detective Rust Cohle: He ain't gonna talk with you.
Detective Marty Hart: I got a car battery and two jumper cables argue different.

The line that sounds most like it would be spoken by Vin Diesel obviously goes to Ajay. Honestly, this is my second favorite team. Starting lineup is loaded outside of TE and maaaybe QB, but there's talent there as well. No team is perfect in a 14-team league, but this is a team that will be favored to win most matchups.


Rustin Cohle: Days with nothing... that's what it's like when you work cases. Days like lost dogs.

This goes to Weissbard, who, as FALAFEL's preeminent gamer, has likely "lost" more days than the rest of us combined. And knowing him, he has no regrets. When it comes to his team, however, he may regret spending that much on AP and Cobb, but definitely on Latavius Murray. His bench can't even really be called a bunch of lotto tickets because at least lotto tickets have a chance of winning. I tend to hate on Dan's teams each year, and while he proved me wrong last year, he has a pretty solid track record of coming up short. (Honestly no pun intended, but when I was re-reading this before posting, I laughed)


Detective Rust Cohle: I'm the person least in the need of counseling in this entire fucking state.

I'm giving the last, and cockiest, quote to myself. If I talk shit in this league, it's usually just ripping on other people's teams or personalities, without ever saying anything positive about myself. But I think right now I'm a clear playoff team, and if a third party was betting on who would get a coat this year, it would be me. I'm not claiming to be dominant across the board, but I think only Ajay can compete with my starters, and considering I have 1-2 more starting RBs than anyone else, and currently 3 more than Barnard, I think I'm as set up for success as I've ever been.

So assuming it comes down to me and Ajay in the Stevens Bowl, I'll let Mr. McConaughey himself make an early prediction:

Detective Rust Cohle: Once there was only dark. You ask me, the light's winning.