Week 7 Recap

The value of a player in fantasy football depends primarily on two things: talent and situation. Some players are going to be good no matter where they play, and some will suck no matter what, but for the most part they are somewhere in the middle. That's never been more evident than 2020, as we've seen the situation change drastically for several players, sometimes from week-to-week.

Take the Cowboys. Before Dak got hurt, they had the QB1, RB3, three top 25 WRs, and a top 10 TE. Since then, absolute garbage. I have to assume they'll bounce back a little bit, but with all the O-Line injuries they're facing, even if the QB play improves, the ceiling is much lower than it was just a month ago. Situational changes have also played a huge role for players like James Robinson (random no-name who benefitted from a very sad COVID situation), Chase Claypool (WR1 when Diontae is hurt, special teams player when Diontae's playing), and Kareem Hunt (RB2 with Chubb active, RB1 when he's not).

Most people in this league have some sense of this (other than Barnard, who has a very odd sense of both talent and situation, as displayed by his continued loyalty to Melvin Gordon and the Patriots), but no one takes advantage as much as Levine. His year-over-year dominance has been truly amazing, and his strategy is pretty much unchanged since he took over for Kimmel: draft a deep team with a few upside picks, but don't over-rely on any player. He doesn't tend to make trades (this year aside), but he never really needs to. And now he's on pace for a chef's hat despite losing Dak and trading for a damaged Mixon.

(Takes reverse JuJu hat off)

Playoff Picture

This Sunday is November 1st, which means it's time to take a look at the playoff picture. Below I'll run through each of the playoff spots, and take a look at which team is the favorite and who else is in play.

Levine Division Champ
Favorite: Levine
In The Hunt: Esco
This is clearly a two-man race, as Esco has kept pace with Levine every step of the way since losing to him Week 2. The tiebreak here is Points Scored, so the head-to-head matchup isn't as devastating as it looks, and Esco is only 17 points back. This will be a fun race to the finish, and the two schedules here are pretty similar as well. The loser will also likely be in line for a bye, so it may not actually matter who wins the division.

AGD Division Champ
Favorite: AGD
In The Hunt: Weissbard
Another two man race, though Alan and I are still technically alive, this one still has a big matchup in Week 11. AGD has a one game lead right now, but faces a schedule mixed with the top teams and the bottom teams, while Weissbard's is more balanced leading up to a potentially massive Rivalry Week with Esco. The winner will have a shot at a bye, but it's very possible that these two will meet in the first round of the playoffs as well.

Gutman Division "Champ"
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Marco, Gutman
This cesspool will need to crown a champion, but outside of record, this division actually has three of the top eight teams in the Power Rankings below. And from a scheduling perspective, Zacherman, Marco, and Gutman still have to play each other, with most of them facing Nick and/or Billy as well. I don't see any one team making a run to 9 wins, but we're not talking about the NFC East here either. I give Z a small edge but this will change weekly.

Wild Cards
Favorites: Esco, Weissbard
In The Hunt: Barnard, Marco
This may be the easiest spot to project right now, with the losers of the Levine and AGD divisions overwhelmingly likely to take the Wild Card spots. Barnard's record and Marco's team strength technically keep them alive here, but that's much more likely to matter for our next spot.

NiJo Spot
Favorite: Marco
In The Hunt: Barnard, Ajay, Bennett, Kumpf, Nick, Gutman
This is the first year in awhile where one team hasn't gotten fucked by the schedule to make them the obvious choice here. The loser of Marco/Z seems like the front-runner right now, and while Barnard would be next in line, his team is predictably headed in the wrong direction. The fun situation is if Marco wins the division, because at that point there are six teams within 60 points (8.5ppg) of Barnard. I like this spot the most because it keeps Nick alive in what would be one of the more unlikely playoff pushes in FALAFEL history.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

2. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

3. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

4. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th)

5. Marco (Last Week: 8th)

6. Esco (Last Week: 4th)

7. Kumpf (Last Week: 5th)

8. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)

10. Barnard (Last Week: 11th)

11. Bennett (Last Week: 12th)

12. Alan (Last Week: 10th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Esco

I usually use the Power Rankings to determine the MotW, but this week we have a divisional matchup between teams over .500, so that wins the day. As referenced above, Esco needs to keep winning to keep pace with Levine, while Barnard's only shot at the playoffs is to luck into three more wins and hope for the best.

Barnard has a few things working in his favor this week. Mahomes is facing the Jets, and while that may mean it's the Chad Henne show, I think the Chiefs will want to use this as an opportunity to get the passing game back on track. Lindsay's injury means drunk Melvin should get more touches, though starting multiple Broncos is a bold strategy. And Esco loses Will Fuller to the bye, leading to the Trade Bait lineup starring RoJo, Swift, and Mike Evans. But the biggest reason I'm making this pick is because Esco's matchups are absolutely BRUTAL other than Amari, who 1) is catching passes from a JMU alum, and 2) may lose touches to Lamb. If they played 100 times, Esco would win 99, but this is Barnard's Miracle On Ice.

Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 5-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Rams (-3) at Dolphins

Colts (-3) at Lions

Bills (-4) vs. Patriots

Steelers (+4) at Ravens

Broncos (+4) vs. Chargers

Last Week: 3-2-1
2020 Record: 19-18-2 (-1.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 6 Recap

Week 6 certainly was a weird one. Me and AGD combined for nearly 200 points in the Matchup of the Week but only had two RBs/WRs put up double digits, one of whom was Tim Patrick. Gutman had his long awaited breakout week, however he got no support at all from his shiny new QB. Levine moved to 6-0, with no player breaking 16, but his entire offensive lineup scoring between 11.04 and 15.9. And then we wrapped things up with an MNF blowout that somehow led to heartbreak for Weissbard relying on the Cardinals and victory to Esco relying on the Cowboys.

After all that, we had a blockbuster trade!

Trade Grade 10
Billy receives Le'Veon Bell, D'Ernest Johnson, Marquise Brown, and Corey Davis
Marco receives Christian McCaffrey
Honestly in shock on this one. Billy is perpetually hard to trade with because he has two studs and a bunch of flex-at-best players, so when those studs get injured, it makes things even more complicated. I'm sure he's been getting garbage offers since Week 2, but I figured with CMC on the mend, he wouldn't actually accept one of them. 

The goal with a CMC trade should have been to get two above average starters or three average starters. Several teams had the depth to provide this, so I'm not sure if they weren't making offers, or if Billy was holding out hope for a fast recovery, but somehow the trade he accepted gave him four more players that still wouldn't start for over half the league. Obviously the Saquon and CMC injuries tanked Billy's season, but he could have done better than this. Even if CMC doesn't play a down, this is a great bit of business from Marco.
Grades:
Billy: F
Marco: A-

Trade Grade 11
Alan receives Dalton Schultz
Levine receives Justin Herbert
Not the most consequential trade, but one that makes sense for both teams in the short term. Levine has slowed the QB trade requests for at least one week, without having to trade from his RB/WR depth. Alan was actually able to unload one of his QBs to fill a short term need, though once Goedert comes back he's back in the same place he was in during Weeks 1-4. Both of these players were free agent additions, so well done on both sides getting value from FAAB, and if Marco catches a stray as a part of this deal, all the better.
Grades:
Alan: B
Levine: B+

I'll go back to the standard Power Rankings format this week, before the starting the Trade Deadline and playoff push as we move into November.

Week 7 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

For a team named after their Tight End, it really continues to be the one glaring weakness on this team. Every single other starter on your team has been top 10 on a points per game basis, which is both extremely impressive and wildly unsustainable. Your big decision will be whether to trade an RB for a TE if/when Ekeler gets healthy, but until then, you can enjoy the ride and hope you avoid any injuries.

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

I assume you have only received more QB trade requests this week after seeing Dalton's abysmal MNF performance (guilty!). Your team's ceiling is not quite as high as Weissbard's, but you have a massive edge in high-upside depth, making a trade to upgrade QB or TE easier to absorb, along with injuries. I worry about sustainability here as well, with Ridley, Thielen and Robby all wildly outperforming their draft slots.

3. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

I feel like this team can be penciled in at 3rd or 4th every week barring injuries. I don't see them taking the top slot, but the core here is just so solid that their floor is 90+ each week. Not a lot to say beyond that.

4. Esco (Last Week: 7th)

Esco is basically the opposite of AGD. Ceiling is incredibly high, especially with RoJo finding the endzone and the Lions (possibly? maybe?) committing to getting Swift the ball. However, the bottom can fall out for any of these players other than Kamara in a given week. I would love to see an AGD/Esco playoff matchup with the Bucs and Lions playing on MNF. Esco could be up by 10 and lose, or down by 60 and win.

5. Kumpf (Last Week: 3rd)

It's embarrassing how much my team relies on Jonnu Smith, but here we are. At least Tannehill looks like a QB1 and maybe Henry Ruggs is a thing.

6. Gutman (Last Week: 5th)

I think last week was the start of Gutman's playoff run. Henry and Jefferson (The Founding Fathers might be a good team name, though not sure if Gronkowski and Dobbins signed the Declaration of Independence. Anywho!) won't approach 75 each week, but Rodgers will likely break 5 most of the time. Gut's roster is deep, and has some upside, as well as matchups with Billy, Nick, and Barnard still to come.

7. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

Not sure I've ever seen byes wreck a lineup more than Zacherman this week, and of course he's facing Barnard! At full strength, this team can compete in any given week, but the cracks in the Baltimore passing game, Davante's health, and the low ceiling of his RB situation puts him a half step behind the teams above him.

8. Marco (Last Week: 11th)

Marco moves up on the heels of a close victory over Weissbard, and the renewed energy this team has with CMC now sitting in the garage. If this team ever gets fully healthy, it will skyrocket up this list, but given that we're talking about the perpetually questionable Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Jamison Crowder trio, in addition to the questions surrounding McCaffrey, 8th seems like a safe spot for now.

9. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

This team still looks fine on paper (and a Mike Davis trade with Marco might make sense now that Billy essentially dropped McCaffrey) but any big time performances feel like an outlier as opposed to the norm. A fully healthy JuJu barely cracking 10ppg is a massive disappointment, and I'm chalking Drake's big night up to the abysmal Dallas D more than anything else.

10. Alan (Last Week: 9th)

Alan's season has pretty closely mirrored that of Josh Allen, and we're now left with even more questions surrounding Michael Thomas. I don't know that there's an obvious move to make here other than hoping Thomas gets healthy and someone emerges at RB2.

11. Barnard (Last Week: 12th)

It's truly shocking how mediocre or worse Barnard's team has been the last two seasons while maintaining a record above .500. He should be able to beat Zacherman this week without breaking 80 thanks to Mahomes, Julio, and Waller, but the rest of this team is a mess.

12. Bennett (Last Week: 8th)

While he tried to drive down the price of Boston Scott due to his own lacking FAAB dollars, Bennett really needed to win that auction with the Vikings on bye. Injuries have hit this team hard (that's what you get for basing your strategy around "get Eagles"), but it's not a completely lost cause like the two teams below it.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

On the bright side, CEH and AJ Brown both had big days last week, giving this team some cause for optimism. On the down side, you still didn't break 80 and Mostert got injured yet again. I'm not putting this league on "Nick Quitting Watch" just yet, but I can't say I'd blame him after the last two years. At least he gets to face Billy this week?

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

I don't know that there's a move you could have made to get yourself out of 14th, but I do know that the one you made didn't move the needle. The three active players you traded for are projected for 20.8 spots, which is likely what CMC will be projected for next week, while only taking one lineup slot. See you in 2021.

Matchup of the Week: Gutman vs. Weissbard

We're at the point in the season where record starts to matter a little bit more than team quality, so even I rank these as two of the top 6 teams in the league, there's a decent chance that they are both under .500 after this week. Both teams have a chance to take the division lead with wins, while losses would make the 6th seed (NiJo spot) look like the best path forward.

It kicks off with a bang Thursday night, as both defenses plus Freeman and Engram are playing. A defensive TD would be huge, and offensive TDs unexpected, so tune in for Giants/Eagles on NFL Network! 

Outside of that, these are two pretty even matchups. Gutman gets the benefit of McKinnon as a lead back, but loses Jefferson and Parker as flex options. Weissbard's biggest concern might be Diggs only playing the first half. While I expect a big bounce back game from Rodgers, the prospect of a shootout between the Cards and Seahawks benefits Weiss slightly more. Sorry Gut.

Pick: Weissbard
MotW Record: 4-2

Gambling Corner

Eagles (-4) vs. Giants

Saints (-6.5) vs. Panthers

Browns (-3) at Bengals

Bucs (-4) at Raiders

Chiefs (-7) at Broncos

49ers (+3) at Patriots

NFL Bets

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 16-16-1 (-2.23 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 5 Recap

As Weissbard has pointed out, the divisions are extremely stratified heading into Week 6. 

Levine's newly-wounded juggernaut leads a division that has all three teams with 4 or more wins. While his team now has a question mark at the previously dominant QB position, he's in prime position to make a trade to fill that hole if necessary. Esco and Bennett have two of the best starting lineups in the league, but an untimely injury would likely sink their playoff hopes. Barnard's team may have started its annual collapse a few weeks early, and Ajay really needs CMC to milk that injury to hold onto any hope.

AGD's division is up for grabs, with three of the top four squads according to this week's rankings, and an Alan team that has showed off its ceiling in the first month of the season. Nick's season is a huge disappointment, but he still in good position to play spoiler down the stretch, if not make a shocking playoff run.

That leaves us with Gutman's division, a true masterpiece in how to draft a division, especially from the four-team slot. Marco and Zacherman are probably unlucky to be below .500, but what's done is done there. Gutman's team hasn't done great so far, but he should benefit from his series of trades now that Rodgers is back from bye, and he's my pick to win this shitshow. And then there's Billy, who should finally change his draft approach after getting burned so badly this year, but I have a feeling will be more like this.

Trade Grade 9
Gutman receives Wayne Gallman
Weissbard receives Benny Snell
Typical handcuff trade, but Weissbard acquired the backup RB on a good offense and Gutman acquired the third string RB on a terrible offense. Doesn't move the needle too much either way, but I'll lean towards the 2018 champ.
Grades:
Gutman: C-
Weissbard: C+

Because the league is so stratified, I'm breaking the rankings this week into the Have's and the Have Not's. There's about a month until the Trade Deadline, so I'll be listing the biggest weakness that each of the Have's need to address, while listing the biggest area of strength that each of the Have Not's can deal from.

Week 6 Power Rankings

Have's

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)
Biggest Weakness: TE
This is a very complete team. There's not a clear RB1, but Ekeler has that upside assuming he comes back healthy. Outside that, the namesake of this team is ironically the only question mark. There are a few teams at the bottom of this list that can provide an upgrade, so if Weiss really wants to make a move for a chef's hat, an RB for TE trade might make sense all around.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

Biggest Weakness: QB

From biggest strength to biggest weakness in one week. Fantasy really is a fickle beast. Unfortunately for Levine, the QB trade dominos have pretty much already fallen unless Barnard wants to go nuclear. I don't hate Dalton but he's a big ginger question mark on an otherwise great and deep team.

3. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th)
Biggest Weakness: WR2
I'm sure I'll get shit for ending up third this week, but if you look at my roster, I'm above average at every position other than my second WR. Diontae is ideally a high-end flex player thrust into the role, but if he can stop getting hurt on his first touch of the game, he has WR2 upside. QB isn't ideal, but I can stream my way into a good matchup most weeks. Come at me AGD.

4. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

Biggest Weakness: Upside

As mentioned a couple of weeks back, the core of this team is set from top to bottom. Hunt will fall off a bit, assuming the Browns can get a Chubb, but he's still a fine RB2 behind Jacobs. What's really lacking is the guy that can put up 30+ in a given week, but if every starter is putting up 15+, that might be enough.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 5th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

Now that QB has been addressed, the glaring hole on this team is at RB behind Henry. Gut doesn't lack for options each week, but those options either need injuries ahead of them, for their teams to get better, or both, for that spot to be solved. Don't love Fant at TE either, but with Lock back the biggest issue is definitely in the RB slot.

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

I can pretty much copy and paste Gutman's blurb for Zacherman. Z actually has the edge at QB, WR1, and TE, but Henry and Gutman's WR depth gives him a very slight edge here to me. Z does have Gaskin, which I've begrudgingly moved into flex-worthy territory in my mind, but I still don't trust him on a weekly basis.

7. Esco (Last Week: 4th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

Sense a theme here? Esco is similar to Gutman and Z as well, but doesn't have the QB upside that Z has, and his WRs are slightly worse than Gut across the board. He keeps trying to make RoJo a thing, and while TD regression is certainly coming, there's a reason everyone has gotten three trade requests with RoJo and John Brown for a better RB.

8. Bennett (Last Week: 9th)

Biggest Weakness: WR

I'm continually shocked at how much I like Bennett's team, but his WR situation does not inspire weekly confidence. OBJ has performed like a WR1 at times, and a flex option at other times, so I'm not sure what I would really consider him. To round out this roster, Bennett really needs a boring WR1 or high upside WR2 to pair with the mercurial Brown. I also low-key think TE is a weakness, but we all know Bennett won't trade Ertz for anyone.

Have Not's

9. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

Biggest Strength: QB

Alan's highs are high, but his lows are low. His placement here obviously makes him the most likely Have Not to move up the rankings, but to do so he may need to trade Josh Allen. I can't see anyone paying up for Stafford or Herbert, but Allen could get Levine to talk to Alan for the first time since 2015.

10. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

Biggest Strength: TE

Like Alan, a move up the rankings will likely involve trading Kittle for help elsewhere. Kittle is still recovering from injury, and has some serious QB questions, but he would be an upgrade for every team but AGD and Zacherman.

11. Marco (Last Week: 8th)

Biggest Strength: Depth

This team's performance yo-yo's from week to week because outside of Russ, there's no consistency. I'm not proposing that Marco gives up Russ yet, as he has depth that can be parlayed into a starter if someone has injury issues. If I'm Marco, I'm eyeing CMC as a potential way to move up these rankings.

12. Barnard (Last Week: 12th)

Biggest Strength: QB/TE

Barnard has a similar situation to Alan and Ajay, with players who provide clear upgrades at both QB and TE. Given how badly he has been raped in trades so far this year, I can't see him actually pulling the trigger, but trying to convince Bennett that Edelman is a WR1 is not going to lead to a playoff berth.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

Biggest Strength: Apathy/Spite

I still don't understand how Nick's team is 0-5. I prefer his roster to several teams above him, but his performance has not matched up with that. The Leveon/CEH situation is not ideal, but Nick would likely be best served to sit tight, continue not caring about fantasy, and play spoiler down the stretch.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Biggest Strength: CMC

McCaffrey and DJ Moore (and Ravens D/ST) are the only players on Billy's team that would be starting for pretty much any other team. If he can get three (or even two) starters out of a trade, I think it would be wise to do so, though I understand just chalking this year up as an L and not rocking the rest of the league.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Kumpf

This is a potentially huge matchup in the division race, and will either confirm ESPN's confidence in me, or send me down to the Have Not's. Byes are wreaking havoc with the lineups here, with AGD getting hit hard losing Jacobs and Lockett. That gives me a huge edge at the RB position, and while it's great to see a guy named La'Mical in a starting lineup, Zeke closing things out on MNF means AGD won't feel safe unless they're up 40. My biggest concern is the Chark/Golladay duo lighting up their opposing defenses and Watson outdueling Tannehill, but I don't think that will be enough to make up for the bye situation. 

Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 4-1

Gambling Corner

Bears (+1.5) at Panthers

Vikings (-3) vs. Falcons

Colts (-7) vs. Bengals

Titans (-3) vs. Texans

Bucs (+3) vs. Packers

NFL Bets

Last Week: 1-4
2020 Record: 13-14-1 (-2.58 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 4 Recap

Welp! My optimism about the season went up in smoke pretty quickly, and my team's fortunes with it. While the league seems to have a plan for the Titans/Steelers game last week, it's obviously not the last time that games will be affected, including potentially the Titans/Bills, Pats/Broncos, and Chiefs/Raiders games this week. If a Week 18 is added, fantasy likely won't be able to adjust, leaving some teams more screwed than others. Nothing we can really do about it, but the asterisk on this year is getting larger.

We obviously had a shit ton of trades this week, and even last weeks were already influential. If Levine and I didn't make our trade, I would have beaten Ajay and Levine would have still beaten Z but by only 0.06! Marco and Zacherman's trade didn't change anyone's fortunes this week, but Marco was lucky to get Singletary before Ekeler's injury, which would have given Z more leverage in their trade talks. The Mixon deal obviously stings for me, but I would bet that whoever starts for Atlanta outscores Mixon for the rest of the season. 

Let's see how this week's trades affect things (my thoughts as the trades came in):

Trade Grade 3
Barnard receives Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and Ryan Fitzpatrick
Gutman receives DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, and Sony Michel
Despite the names involved, this trade isn't all that exciting. Barnard was completely screwed at RB with Chubb hurt and Melvin about to lose touches, so his solution was to...add a goalline back who might be getting phased out of his own (admittedly high-powered) offense? Julio is nice (though potentially washed), but not a clear upgrade on DK, let alone losing Keenan, and now Edelman is a weekly starter which is less than ideal. I will say that his roster is more balanced now, but it's worse overall, so the trade was likely not worth it.

Speaking of balance! Gutman now has five startable WRs with Rob Woods, DK, Keenan, Golladay, and MVS (borderline but I like him), and his only startable RB might get a second game postponed. Gut's biggest need was QB, which this does not address, and he can literally not start all the best players on his roster. He got the better end of this deal from a value perspective, but he needs to make another move pronto.
Grades:
Barnard: D+
Gutman: C-

Trade Grade 5
AGD receives Kenny Golladay
Gutman receives Justin Jefferson and Jerick McKinnon
On cue! Going slightly out of order here, as I can't stop laughing at Gutman. Once again, I think he probably got the better value in the deal, with Jefferson a downgrade at WR (but one Gutman can afford), while adding an RB that is flex-worthy even when all the San Fran RBs are healthy (McKinnon has scored in every game so far). But who the hell is Gut going to start every week? Henry's team has COVID, the rest of his RBs are either splitting carries, on a terrible team, or both, and the WR situation is strong but he can still only start a max of three of them. Gut has taken over for Barnard as deepest team in the league, but it's by far the most confusing roster I've ever seen. And he still has jack shit at QB!

AGD is clearly making moves for some Chef's hats, as combining depth for an upgraded starting lineup is a textbook trading from strength move. I get a little worried about that strategy this year of all years, where lack of a bench can lead to Alan starting Tony Pollard and JD McKissic at RB, so if Hunt or Jacobs goes down (or their teams get COVID, which may have already happened), things get bleak quickly. But those are the risks you need to take if you want to join the Indians with some headwear on draft weekend, so I can't fault them too much.
Grades:
AGD: B+
Gutman: C

Trade Grade 4
Kumpf receives Steelers D/ST, A.J. Green
Zacherman receives Deebo Samuel, Hunter Renfrow
I'm guessing Kumpf gave up waiting on Deebo and wanted to get out before he inevitably gets hurt again and was happy to get out for a top 10 DST. If Deebo gets hurt I think the plan makes sense. However, Z was able to package a defense and Hunter Renfrow for two FLEX level WRs (Deebo, TY) who he can be comfortable in his starting lineup. Not a season altering trade for either side but could potentially swing a game or two.

ESPN loves Kumpf's team so much that by the end of the season they will be projected for 200 points per game but I'm not sure I see it. While the COVID factor is a wash right now, I think depth will be king by mid-season (if there is a mid-season) so I give the slight edge to Zacherman.

Grades:
Kumpf: B-
Zacherman: B

Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Gibson, and Tee Higgins
Weissbard receives Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Stefon Diggs
Lots of trades that are contingent on other trades this week, none moreso than this one. This is a home run for Weissbard, who gets a late season RB1 if Ekeler recovers, as well as a complete lockdown of the best WR trio in the league. He was also able to get a shocking amount of value for Rodgers, which corrects his biggest draft mistake and gives him most likely the best starting lineup in the league. There is risk if Ekeler ends up missing the season, but James Robinson has done a fine job so far and certainly won't tank this team.

As for Marco, this is obviously the precursor to a second move, though one that was not agreed to in advance, which is very risky. Gibson is fine, though he may have gotten the homer boost, but the WR situation here is begging for an upgrade. I'm grading this on it's own right now, and it's not great.
Grades:
Marco: D
Weissbard: A

Trade Grade 7
Weissbard receives Chris Thompson and Hunter Renfrow
Zacherman receives TY Hilton
Yawn. Weissbard gets a pseudo-handcuff and low end Flex receiver, while Zacherman is buying as low as possible on Hilton. I can only see one of these guys mattering, but highly doubt any of them do.
Grades:
Weissbard: C
Zacherman: B-

Trade Grade 8
Gutman receives Aaron Rodgers and Devante Parker
Marco receives Carson Wentz and Keenan Allen
The other shoe finally drops. I'm grading these trades individually, but obvious this move is the culmination of several other moves that both Gut and Marco have made. On the surface, I like this the most for Marco. He had to work harder than expected because he didn't have a deal agreed to before acquiring Rodgers, and trading QBs is extremely difficult in this league, but he certainly upgraded his WR1 in this deal. Gutman finally got his QB as well, so while the value likely wasn't as high, the upgrade from Wentz to Rodgers is more than worth the downgrade from Keenan to his old friend Devante. It took a very roundabout process, but I think they both ended up where they needed to.
Grades:
Gutman: B
Marco: B-

Overall, I think most of the teams involved here are in a better position than they started. Some (Weissbard) did better than others (Barnard), but no one really tanked their season with any of these moves. And when it comes to Weissbard and AGD, we may look back at this week as when they started their march towards Chef's hats. 

Or the season could be cancelled next week, in which case Billy is the real winner.

The top-heaviness of the league continued with new 30 point scorers Joe Fucking Mixon, Odell Beckham, George Kittle, Tom Brady, and something called a Robert Tonyan. This makes trades a little bit complicated, as most will include trading a stud for depth, as opposed to trying to find complementary rosters based on positions. That doesn't seem to be stifling trade talks so far, but it's something to monitor, especially if scoring calms down at some point.

Given all the trades this week, and my lack of an idea for a gimmick, I'm just going to list the rankings this week, with one exception:

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Levine (Last Week: 3rd)

2. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

3. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)

4. Esco (Last Week: 11th)
Esco finally gets his wish and moves up the most this week, but I'm still not sold on his squad being sustainable. Yes, he leads the league in points, but 32% of his offensive points have been from TDs. That's obviously the goal of the game, but it's also the least predictive of future success. Mike Evans isn't going to turn one of every three catches into a TD, Kamara will (probably) stop scoring twice per game, and Esco's lineup management hot streak will cool off at some point (The Will Fuller Rule). Ironically, trash-ass Ronald Jones is due for more TDs, so after this rant I expect him to light up the Bears and then Gutman will trade for him.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 8th)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

7. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

8. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

9. Bennett (Last Week: 4th)

10. Ajay (Last Week: 12th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 9th)

12. Barnard (Last Week: 7th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Levine

There are a few options here, as a lot of the better teams based on rosters (and Power Rankings) are behind the teams with better records. This matchup is between two teams with good records, but almost as far apart as possible in terms of roster. The implications are huge, with Levine potentially on his way to a perfect season, while a typical Barnard team is outproducing his talent before an obvious collapse. Barnard got a bit unlucky with Chubb getting injured, but he doubled down with a puzzling trade, and is now looking up at Alan in the rankings. His team is also shockingly reliant on players in games that might be postponed, so this could really be a blowout. The only way I see Levine losing is if Barnard's entire roster plays, Dak peppers Lamb with targets, and the Stidham/Rypien matchup produces fireworks. Let's not overthink this.

Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 3-1

Gambling Corner

Jaguars (+6) at Texans

Jets (+7.5) vs. Cardinals

Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Raiders

Seahawks (-7) vs. Vikings

NFL Bets

Last Week: 2-2-1
2020 Record: 12-10-1 (+0.37 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 3 Recap

(Note: I wrote a lot of this before the Steelers/Titans game was postponed, so I won't really reflect that below.)

After another wild week, 2020 has been by far the most points scored through three weeks in NFL history. Not entirely surprising given the lack of preseason for defenses, along with offense-focused rules, but what has been surprising is that the points have not really been evenly distributed. In our league, Weissbard is outscoring Gutman by 30 points per game, a pretty shocking number for three weeks. And on the flip side, teams facing AGD have outscored teams facing Alan by 45 points per game, which is batshit crazy.

Some of these things (especially on the points allowed side) will even out over a longer stretch, but depth has surprisingly mattered less this year than just having studs that can win you weeks on their own. We've already seen 17 instances of a player breaking 30 in a given week, and to have a real shot at a Chef's Coat this year, you need at least one of those guys, preferably more. It's obviously more valuable to have those guys at the Flex positions, but even QBs can make a huge difference, as Russ, Dak, and Josh Fucking Allen have showed so far. This week's rankings will take a look at who's a threat to break 30 any week, and who has the potential to join the club with a strong year.

But first!

Trade Grade 1
Kumpf receives Todd Gurley and Brian Hill
Levine receives Joe Mixon and Preston Williams
Preston Williams and the Gurley handcuff aren’t huge considerations here, we really need to value Mixon vs. Gurley.

Through three games last year, Joe Mixon was averaging 7.6 points per game with two games under 6 total points. By the end of the season he had increased his average to 12.9pts per game and had two games over 25 points. He’s only missed 4 games as he enters his 4th year in the league and seems primed to be a low end RB1 for the rest of the year.

Todd Gurley has already scored four touchdowns including two receiving touchdowns on only THREE receptions. He’s only played 16 games once in his career and has seemed especially brittle in the past two years.

Which player seems like the sell-high and which player seems like the sell-low looking at those numbers? I should tank Kumpf's grade after seeing my place in the power rankings but there is a chance that the reduced workload for Gurley keeps him upright while Gio Bernard bizarrely continues to steal carries and receptions from Mixon. Not a great chance but a chance.
Grades:
Levine: A-
Kumpf: C+
I(Editors Note: I would have given Levine a B+ and myself a C+ so we're not too far off)

Trade Grade 2
Marco receives Devin Singletary and Corey Davis
Zacherman receives Chris Thompson and Terry McLaurin
This trade all comes down to the value of the RB in our league. Scary Terry is clearly the best player involved here, and assuming AJ Brown is healthy come Week 5, the trade is basically Singletary for McLaurin. Based just on that, Zacherman gets an easy win, because, despite the relative shitshow in our nation's capital, McLaurin is situation-proof. HOWEVER, there is a complete and total dearth of startable RBs in this league, and Singletary is a low-end RB2 or high-end Flex option, especially with Moss out. So based on the player value, I'd call this basically a wash. Looking at the team-specific situation, Marco upgraded from a non-existent RB2 (with Bell out) to Singletary, while losing stability at WR2 (and Flex by extension). Zacherman upgrades on AJ Green as his WR2, but his RB2 situation is heavily reliant on the Dolphins running game. This one goes to Marco, unless Moss comes back and relegates Singletary to fringe-Flex status.

Grades:
Marco: B
Zacherman: C

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)

Week Winners: Aaron Rodgers, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins

Potential: Kyler Murray

Weiss has the potential for a chef's hat this year, but to get there he'll need to sure up his starting lineup. That means trading one of his QBs for an upgrade at RB. If he can do that before Rodgers or Kyler gets hurt or comes back to earth, this is a clear favorite.

2. AGD (Last Week: 7th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: Deshaun Watson, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Lockett, Travis Kelce

Our second best team right now is the big exception to the rule of week winners, but they have enough depth that it gives them by far the highest floor in the league. They've broken 100 every week, and while 130+ might be a stretch, they'll be a factor come playoff time. My biggest concern is the lack of trade pieces, giving them minimal injury insurance or ability to upgrade.

3. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

Week Winners: Dak Prescott

Potential: Calvin Ridley
There is a non-zero chance that Thielen and Ridley will be the top WR duo in the league, and given the auction dollars Levine spent on them, everyone else should be ashamed. I am over Mixon in general, but you can't deny that he's due, and with Dak in constant shootouts and the Texans schedule easing up, I wouldn't be surprised if this team re-takes over the top spot soon.

4. Bennett (Last Week: 3rd)

Week Winners: Dalvin Cook

Potential: Cam Newton

After surviving Barnard's abysmal roster management, this team is in good shape for a playoff run. As usual with a Bennett team, I don't really like the individual players, but I can't deny that it's a well constructed team. You got a little bit lucky that Goedert's injury helps Ertz remain relevant, and Darrell Henderson will come back to earth soon, but you're not a constant Hot Potato threat which is a welcome change I'm sure.

5. Marco (Last Week: 4th) 

Week Winners: Russell Wilson

Potential: Stefon Diggs
I like a lot of this team, but there are so many question marks on a weekly basis that it's hard to imagine it will survive the playoff gauntlet as currently constructed. The biggest trade chip is obviously Russ, but QB trades in this league rarely bring back "fair" value, so it's likely worth to let it ride right now. Barring a trade, a title run may be contingent on LeVeon playing like an RB1 when he comes back, which...is not likely.

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

Week Winners: Lamar Jackson, Davante Adams

Potential: Jonathan Taylor

Trade partners back to back! This is one of the more top heavy teams in the league, with a few guys who can dominate in any given week. I like his depth a little less than the teams above him (and even less after his trade), but no one is going into a matchup with Z and guaranteeing a win. He needs someone outside of Lamar/Taylor/Adams/Terry/Andrews to become a reliable starter to really be taken seriously, which isn't out of the question, but there also isn't an obvious answer.

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

Week Winners: Patrick Mahomes

Potential: Nick Chubb (if Hunt gets hurt), DK Metcalf

This is the deepest team in the league right now from top to bottom, but outside of the guys listed above, has a ton of difficult lineup decisions. A lineup like this could not be in worse hands, with Barnard consistently blinded by homerism and Madden speed ratings, which makes the whole enterprise pretty fun to watch (last night included). Earlier this week Barnard told me, "I have so much WR depth, so I just need to combine them and trade for a top RB." Welcome to FALAFEL, where every team has that same situation.

8. Gutman (Last Week: 9th)

Week Winners: Derrick Henry

Potential: Julio Jones

With the Titans/Steelers postponement, Gutman's current lineup is hilarious, but not all is lost for this team. He desperately needs the Ravens to choose a clear RB1, or have either Ingram or Dobbins get hurt, but if that happens his core is still really legit. In the interim, it might be worth looking to trade both Ravens RBs to a team who's in a better position to wait things out, or who lost Saquon Barkley and CMC at the same time.

9. Alan (Last Week: 13th)

Week Winners: Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, Michael Thomas

Potential: N/A

Similar to Z, this team is extremely top heavy. Unlike Z, I'm less sold on his QB being MVP caliber, which is the primary difference. He also has a massive hole at RB2 (a consistent theme for the rest of these teams), and while Cam Akers could end up startable, it's the McKissic show until then. It's also hilarious that Alan wasted three roster spots on low value TEs, only to see Goedert emerge as a TE1, then immediately get hurt, leaving him with the worst TE situation in the league.

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 5th)

Week Winners: Ezekiel Elliott

Potential: N/A

I have by far the most boring roster in the league. Even Zeke doesn't inspire excitement other than when he shows off his tattoo. Swapping Mixon for Gurley doesn't really move the needle in terms of me enjoying my roster, but I'm hoping that an easier schedule will at least allow me to see double digits from RB2 for the first time this year. My four year playoff run is likely coming to an end, and with a whimper at that.

11. Esco (Last Week: 10th)

Week Winners: Alvin Kamara

Potential: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Will Fuller

Contrary to popular opinion, there is a rhyme and reason (and stats) that back up these rankings, yet I have to admit that it's funny to see Esco below me. But on a position by position basis, we're just about even across the board other than me having a better RB2 and him having a better WR2. As previously mentioned, RBs have more value than WRs, so here we are. What Esco does have is more upside than I do, with Will Fuller leading the way as the "worst" player to appear in the list of potential week winners.

12. Ajay (Last Week: 11th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: George Kittle

Ajay's roster is the second most boring in the league, but has a few more holes than mine does. Seeing a TE as his only potential week winner exemplifies that, and even he's injured. Ajay's path to the playoffs includes McCaffrey staying injured, and the Saints turning to Taysom at QB so Ajay would be able to start multiple QBs each week. Bold strategy...

13. Nick (Last Week: 12th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: Clyde Edwards-Heeeeeelaire, Chris Godwin

Of the teams near the bottom, this is the obvious one that can make a playoff run. But that run would have to start soon. Nick has been wrecked by injuries, but on paper this is still an above average roster in the league. A.J. Brown getting an unexpected bye to rest this week, and Mostert's recovery timeline means that if Nick can beat Bennett, he's very much still alive.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Week Winners: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley (sorry Billy)

Potential: Rex Burkhead?

Speaking of still alive! I don't think we've ever seen a waiver pickup break 30 immediately, but that's a hell of a move by our bottom dweller. Things do look bleak, but Burrow has upside, DJ Moore is begging for positive TD regression, and CMC has to come back at some point right? Right? He'll be an underdog in every matchup the rest of the way, but last week showed that anything is possible.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Marco

There's no an obvious MotW this week, but there are definitely implications in this one. If Marco wins, he'll rise from playoff potential to clear contender status, while AGD will be scrambling despite a solid squad. If AGD wins, they stay in the thick of it, while Marco will need to decide if it's worth trading Russ to avoid being a one man team. 

For this week, Russ could easily break 40 against Miami, but a lot of those points would go to Lockett which will be bittersweet all around. If the Texans are going to show any life this year, Watson will need to go off against the Vikings, so the QB/WR1 situation is surprisingly even given how Russ has started the year. That means this will be decided by the supporting cast, and in that situation, AGD's depth reigns supreme. Jacobs and Kelce have tough matchups, but Belfer and Reap can roll out a high floor group that Marco can't compete with unless Hollywood has a day.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 2-1

Gambling Corner

Bucs (-7) vs. Chargers

Vikings (+4) at Texans

Jaguars (+3) at Bengals

Bears (+3) vs. Colts

Chiefs (-7) vs. Patriots

NFL Bets

Last Week: 2-3
2020 Record: 10-8 (+0.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)