One week ago in this space, I mentioned how things had stabilized. Seven days later, that all seem to go to shit. Teams ranked 2, 4, and 7 all lost, and teams ranked 10, 11, and 12 all won (though somehow the MotW pick was correct). I'm not rethinking how these rankings are created, but maybe it is worth looking at things a little bit differently this week. Instead of Good News/Bad News, instead we're going to examine Biggest Strengths and Achilles Heels, and pointing out how many top 10 options each team has at each position (based on total points so byes/injuries skew some players, but it should mostly even out).
An in-depth review of the rosters around the league does not show that the Power Rankings were wrong, just that Week 6 was super weird. There are seven teams that I would call true contenders (ranked 1-7), with Alan and Barnard looming as wild cards based on records that would appear unsustainable (more on that below!). Injuries and trades can certainly change things, but I remain unrattled in how I'm viewing this season.
Week 7 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Biggest Strength: Top-to-bottom the best starting lineup in the league.
Achilles Heel: An injury to Watson would cripple one roster spot and significantly hurt another.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE
2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Biggest Strength: No team has a better starting RB/WR/TE situation.
Achilles Heel: Almost no team has a worse QB situation.
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 D/ST
3. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Biggest Strength: A RB/WR setup with both high-floor studs and high-ceiling depth.
Achilles Heel: After Dissly's injury, a tough decisions at TE each week, along with a potentially doomed reliance on the Dallas offense.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 D/ST
4. Billy (Last Week: 5)
Biggest Strength: One of two RB duos in the league that can straight up win weeks on their own, along with an out-of-nowhere TE1 season from Hooper.
Achilles Heel: The least depth among the contenders, which is already being put to the test due to Kamara's injury.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST
5. Levine (Last Week: 4)
Biggest Strength: One of two QBs that can straight up win weeks on his own, as well as all of the non-backfield targets for the Chargers.
Achilles Heel: Overall lack of clarity on who to start each week.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR
6. Marco (Last Week: 6)
Biggest Strength: Overall depth is top three in the league, and he just re-took the lead in number of children in FALAFEL (Congrats!).
Achilles Heel: Other than his own start/sit decisions, he has no week-winners on his team, which really comes in handy in the playoffs, so I'm told.
Top 10s: 2 QBs, 1 WR, 1 TE
7. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Biggest Strength: McCaffrey is the single most valuable asset in fantasy, and Nick's roster follows Weissbard's blueprint that led to a Chef's Coat last year.
Achilles Heel: QB is a weakness that Weissbard did not have, but even if Brees comes back in vintage form, the lack of overall consistency outside of CMC makes it hard to bet on this team winning three straight playoff games.
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST
8. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Biggest Strength: Arguably the best top-4 group of WRs in the league.
Achilles Heel: Little-to-no ceiling from anywhere else on the roster (there's a reason that the contenders above are not built around WRs).
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 D/ST
9. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Biggest Strength:Weirdly, the biggest strength on this team is that guys like Rodgers, Adams, and Kelce have yet to perform to their own ceilings, but he's somehow 4-2 anyway.
Achilles Heel: The floor for your RBs is incredibly low on a week-to-week basis.
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 TE
10. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)
Biggest Strength: Extreme depth of guys he can start in a pinch at every position.
Achilles Heel: The highest ceiling of that depth is at QB and TE, where he only needs to start one of them.
Top 10s: 2 QB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST
11. Bennett (Last Week: 11)
Biggest Strength: Against all odds it might be receiver? Tyreek, Rob Woods, Scary Terry, and whatever happens with Tate and Green isn't a bad situation at all.
Achilles Heel: With Conner banged up, it's the lack of reliability at RB.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 WR, 2 D/ST
12. Barnard (Last Week: 12)
Biggest Strength: Even with their impossibly easy schedule getting harder after the bye, it's still the Pats D.
Achilles Heel: Unpredictable ceilings across the rest of the roster, and a fantasy schedule that still includes four of the top five teams in these rankings.
Top 10s: 1 D/ST
13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
Biggest Strength: Mahomes.
Achilles Heel: Everything else.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 2 TEs
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Biggest Strength: Based on how this season has gone, your willingness to trade?
Achilles Heel: Very bad roster.
Top 10s: 1 RB
Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Barnard
Ooooooh boy! The Disrespect Bowl is no longer an official Rivalry Week game, but there is arguably more on the line in this week's matchup. I'm going to go ahead and call this a Loser Leaves Town matchup, with Alan's superior roster negated by Barnard's 1-game lead in a 4-team (albeit more difficult) division. And the Week 7 schedule makes it even more tasty, with Alan getting Kelce and Sutton rolling on TNF, all the way through Barnard's cavalry of Pats on MNF. From a matchups perspective, things have aligned well for Barnard pretty much across the board which lifts his below average roster to some sort of respectability. Alan will need some points to be scored on Thursday (never a sure thing), as well as a previously unseen passing attach from Green Bay against a friendly Oakland defense. It may fittingly come down to Melvin vs. Ekeler, though the Titans matchup is pretty tough there. At the end of the day, I think Barnard's reckoning is still coming this season, but it won't start this week. I #Kursed you into your first loss, so consider yourself #Kursed again.
Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 2-4
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/14
NBA Win Totals
Atlanta under 34
Brooklyn under 43.5
Chicago over 33.5
Dallas over 41.5
Indiana under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Lakers under 50.5
Memphis over 26.5
Milwaukee under 57.5
Minnesota over 35.5
Oklahoma City over 32.5
Phoenix over 29.5
Portland under 46.5
San Antonio under 45.5
Utah under 53.5
Based on the last five years, these bets should go 11-4. I also bet the Lakers to miss the playoffs at +425.
NFL Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos - Win
Texans (+1) at Colts - Loss
Vikings (-1.5) at Lions - Win
Packers (-5.5) vs. Raiders - Win
Saints (+3) at Bears - Win
Patriots (-10) at Jets - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 21-16 (+2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Stanford (-4) vs. UCLA - Loss
Syracuse (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Louisville (+24) vs. Clemson - Loss
Purdue (+17.5) at Iowa - Win
Kansas State (+3.5) vs. TCU - Win
Mississippi State (+18.5) vs. LSU - Loss
Baylor (+4) at Oklahoma State - Win
Arizona State (+13) at Utah - Loss
Last Week: 2-6
2019 Record: 27-27-1 (-3.35 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Burnley (+1) at Leicester City - Push
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 15-10-9 (+1.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Everton (-105) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 10-6 (+0.34 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-0 (+1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
MLB Bets
Yankees (+130) vs. Astros - Loss
Astros (+117) at Yankees - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 76-76 (-6.25 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
MLS Spread Bets
DC United (+1) at Toronto FC - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 14-12-5 (-0.50 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Seattle (-130) vs. FC Dallas - Loss
Real Salt Lake (+115) vs. Portland - Win
Philadelphia (+105) vs. NY Red Bulls - Loss
Minnesota (-105) vs. LA Galaxy - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 7-8 (+0.10 units)
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