And we're back!
The regular season is more than halfway complete and we're three weeks away from the Fantasy Trade Deadline. And most importantly, I have a light meeting week at work, so I can actually spend time on my favorite (only) post of the year.
Before getting into the Mock Trades, let's take a quick look at the current standings.
If the season ended today, the playoff field would be:
1. Barnard (Barnard Division Champion/Bye)
2. Bennett (Kumpf Division Champion/Bye)
3. Esco (Weissbard Division Champion)
4. Alan (Wild Card 1)
5. Nick (Wild Card 2)
6. Levine (NiJo Spot)
Most of the field above has earned their placement with consistently top scoring weeks. Barnard is a shocking 129 points above Levine in second place, averaging over 16 points per game more than anyone else. That's basically like him having an extra A.J. Brown each week compared to every other team. There are some chinks in the armor here with a two-game losing streak, but I think Barnard is comfortably the favorite right now.
Levine is only one game back from a Wild Card spot, and I would bet against him actually needing the NiJo spot to make the playoffs. Esco and Bennett also either have a nice points scored advantage over the rest of the field (Esco) or an insane three game lead in the best drafted division in FALAFEL history (Bennett).
That leaves Alan and Nick as the vulnerable teams. Nick is above .500 with the 12th most points scored, and while he has been due for some luck in fantasy, it will be hilarious when he misses the playoff due to the NiJo Rule. Alan could go either way. Middle of the road points scored, but the second least points against. He'll face tougher competition from here on out, but his team is solid enough to stay competitive.
As for the group of teams chasing a playoff spot, Gutman and Z are just one game back from a Wild Card spot, with performances about equivalent to Alan, though Z is definitely headed in the wrong direction. Looking at the NiJo spot, I'm in contention as well with a miniscule lead over Gutman and both of us 33 points behind Levine. That's pretty much the line for true playoff contention right now.
The other teams are still technically within reach of a Wild Card spot (AGD, Ajay), the NiJo spot (Marco), or both (Weissbard), other than Billy. Another rough season there, and amazing value in the second round of the Division Draft.
As things stand, my playoff prediction is:
1. Barnard
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Gutman
5. AGD
6. Levine
But that can all change if teams make some big trades...
Mock Trade Mania
As always some of these trades are more realistic than others, and some are more impactful than others, but I hope we can at least get some conversations started during the least trade-happy year in recent memory.
Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Aaron Rodgers, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida
Nick receives Patrick Mahomes, Dalvin Cook, and Keontay Ingram
Let's start with a banger! Bennett is in the rare position of being a favorite to make the playoffs, and he also has two startable QBs now that the Bears have somewhat figured out how to use Fields. Nick has had nothing but frustration at the QB position, and no one can solve that frustration quite like Mahomes. In this situation, Bennett would be placing big bets on Fields ability (though Rodgers isn't a bad insurance policy) and Saquon's health, while Nick would balance his roster and still have a stud RB each week.
I can't see this deal actually happening, both because Bennett is horrible to try to trade with and Nick likely values Saquon higher than anyone else in the league, but I would pay to be a fly on the wall for the trade negotiation.
Mock Trade 2
Gutman receives James Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Zacherman receives Joe Mixon, Semaje Perine, and George Pickens
This one is a little bit more shuffling the deck chairs without either team gaining a ton, but it does give Zacherman a true starting RB, while Gutman gets a big WR upgrade while owning the Jets and Falcons backfields (for whatever that is worth). This probably helps Z a bit more than Gut, but I wouldn't want to face an Ekeler/JRob/Patterson/AJB/St. Brown lineup in the first round if they're all healthy.
Mock Trade 3
AGD receives David Montgomery
Barnard receives Brandon Aiyuk
Both of these teams are in pretty good shape roster-wise. AGD currently has only three RBs, which tends to be a problem in a 14 team league, so getting Montgomery adds some balance, injury protection, and a flex option. Barnard is set with Chubb and Jacobs, but his WR situation is iffy after Diggs, so Aiyuk is another option there. This trade would have to happen after this week with Chubb on bye, and would also require AGD to change their team name, which may be a non-starter.
Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives AJ Dillon and DeAndre Hopkins
Levine receives D'Onta Foreman and Amari Cooper
Both of these teams have tons of depth, but their starting lineups are lacking. This trade gives Levine an actual starting RB to pair with Mostert (who may now be in a timeshare with Jeff Wilson anyway) and gives Ajay a dynamic WR duo. I don't think either team has the Stevens Bowl in their futures unless some injuries break the right way, but this won't hurt either team's chances.
Mock Trade 5
Alan receives Brian Robinson Jr., Davante Adams, and Greg Dulcich
Weissbard receives Leonard Fournette, Chase Claypool, and Dallas Goedert
The more I've looked at this one the more I like it. Weiss would come away with the best RB trio in the league, and a massive upgrade at TE (along with the QB connection if he can stomach that many Eagles). For Alan, the upgrade that Adams brings to his WR group is worth the downgrades at RB2 and TE. Weiss would likely need to re-balance his roster (Knox and Jakobi for a mediocre WR?), but this one truly helps both teams.
Mock Trade 6
Billy receives DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams
Kumpf receives Jonathan Taylor and Gus Edwards
This is strictly about the path to the playoffs. Billy basically needs to win out (and have some help) to have a chance. Jonathan Taylor has been very disappointing compared to preseason projections, so any down week, injury, or the Week 14 bye massively impacts that possibility. My best playoff path is the NiJo spot, so I can absorb one or two duds if the overall performance is still there. It's a risk for either of us, but the Lions duo gives Billy some safety in terms of injury and a bye that has already occurred (and two starters as I am now using them), while I get the potential upside of JT (and the Gus Bus).
Mock Trade 7
Esco receives Ja'Marr Chase and Buffalo D/ST
Marco receives Chris Godwin and Jets D/ST
We end with a bit of a weird trade, but one that makes sense. Marco is similar to me in that he just needs points and needs them now. Chase being hurt sucks, and makes him a perfect trade option to a team that can afford to be without a WR for a few weeks. Esco fits the bill, as he is already in playoff position and has more than 2 startable WRs right now. This trade gives Esco Stevens Bowl upside, with the eventual return of Chase and the top D/ST in the league, and keeps Marco's playoff hopes alive, albeit on life support, with a healthy WR.
I'll end with another quick Power Rankings to see how things have changed in the last month:
- Barnard (Last: 7th)
- AGD (Last: 5th)
- Esco (Last: 2nd)
- Levine (Last: 1st)
- Gutman (Last: 6th)
- Kumpf (Last: 4th)
- Weissbard (Last: 9th)
- Ajay (Last: 10th)
- Alan (Last: 8th)
- Zacherman (Last: 3rd)
- Bennett (Last: 14th)
- Nick (Last: 12th)
- Billy (Last: 13th)
- Marco (Last: 11th)
