Stevens Bowl XII Preview

 After the weirdest season in the weirdest year of our collective lives, we've finally made it to the finish line. 

The Semi-Final matchups could not have been more different. Gutman vs. Esco was an ugly slugfest where each team tried to underperform the other. Ultimately Esco was let down by more players and Gut escaped without getting burned by his lackluster (albeit logical) lineup management. 

On the other hand, Weissbard vs. Levine was a thriller that legitimately came down to a last minute drive. Levine supposedly wanted to start David Johnson over Zack Moss and didn't know there was a Saturday game, but that sounds like excuses to me. He was almost rescued by an asburd Logan Thomas game, but Engram "answered" with the bare minimum on SNF.

That brings us to the Grandaddy of them all...

Gutman! Weissbard! Mara! Lily! It's The Stevens Bowl XII!!!

Stevens Bowl XII - 3) Weissbard vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
Rodgers vs. Kyler is yet another great QB showdown that doesn't have any other mitigating factors that need to be consid...What? Is that Jalen Hurts' music? Gutman's great defensive pickup ended up giving him the win against Esco, but now it gives him an extremely difficult decision: Roll with Rodgers despite a subpar Week 14 and a banged up supporting cast, or fly with the Eagles and go all in with Hurts? It's a tough decision but there are probably no wrong answers. For Weissbard, Kyler looks healthy and that means we have three studs here.
Edge: Even

RB:
For most of the season this would have been yet another matchup of Henry vs. a deeper stable of RBs, but a few things have changed. First, Dobbins may have finally emerged as the starter in Baltimore, giving Gut two top-10 RBs. And on the flipside, Weiss's crew looks as bad as it has all season. JRob is banged up and might not play at all, and the Pittsburgh RB situation is now one to fully avoid. He could look at Gio or Carlos Hyde, but if those are the answers, you're asking the wrong questions.
Big Edge: Gutman

WR:
This is where the matchup will be decided. We have six of the top 11 WRs on the season involved in this game, not to mention Brandon Aiyuk, who has been better than all of them in the last month. The issue here is the same as QB, where Weiss can just roll with his studs while Gutman actually has a decision to make. Again there are no wrong answers, but I think Gut's floor is slightly lower overall. If he can win this position then it's game over.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Fant, Gronk, Engram, and Hooper could easily combine for less than 20 points, and I fully expect both teams to pick the wrong guy.
Edge: Even

DST:
Some interesting choices here that could provide some fireworks based on the matchup. I was skeptical of Weissbard picking the Chargers last week, but this week I would actually prefer them to the Panthers team he has starting right now. Gutman needs to turn away from the Steel Curtain, but can pick the Bills who are extremely unlikely to let up more than 14 points to the Pats. I think Gut has more upside here, but this one is close as well.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Overall:
This should be an entertaining matchup give the talent involved. After the draft, I thought Gutman had the best roster and he only added to it throughout the season with a series of shockingly shrewd moves. I had Weissbard in 4th based on Draft Grades, but the JRob pickup and Ekeler trade vaulted him up to just about even with Gut.

My guess is that Weissbard has a 50 point lead heading into SNF, with Gut pulling ahead thanks to Henry and Rodgers. That leaves it to Diggs vs. Bills D in prime time, against a Pats team with a terrible offense and missing Gilmore. Weiss should get more points there, but not enough to make up the gap, with Diggs failing to reprise Engram's role from Week 15. Repeat Likely.
Pick: Gutman

MotW Record: 18-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Saints (-7) vs. Vikings

Bucs (-9.5) at Lions

49ers (+7) at Cardinals

Browns (-7) at Jets

Broncos (+3) at Chargers

Cowboys (+3) at Eagles

Packers (-3) vs. Titans

Last Week: 4-2-2
2020 Record: 45-41-5 (-1.77 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Semi-Final Preview

Welp, it's official. This is a Chef's Hat year. Thanks to Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs, Barnard and Marco fade into Bolivia leaving only previous champs in the Final Four for the first time ever. The No Coats Club remains at six teams for another year, and if Nick leaves again then we're back down to five.

The Final Four includes what is probably our four strongest teams. At full strength, Marco may have had something to say about that, but starting Peyton Barber, Tee Higgins, and Marvin Jones in a playoff game is a pretty strong counterpoint. I have Weissbard and Gutman as a clear 1-2, as Esco and Levine have somewhat depleted rosters, but as we saw with Barnard making the playoffs after actively harming his team on a weekly basis, anything can happen this year.

Let's take a closer look at who will advance to Stevens Bowl XII, Dr. Z-style:

Matchup 1: 1) Esco vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
This position was a definite weakness for these teams early in the season, but Gutman made some savvy trades to address things, while Esco was never able to get Barnard to give up Mahomes for RoJo. On top of that, Gutman stole Jalen Hurts, leaving Esco with a tough choice between Tua and Big Ben. Esco has Tua in right now (I would definitely go with Ben), but it doesn't matter in this analysis.
Big Edge: Gutman 

RB:
Another week where Gutman needs to hope Henry can outscore multiple opposing RBs combined, and another week where it's actually in play given that he faces the Lions. Kamara and Swift should be solid, and Cam Akers has turned into a potential league-winner for Esco. Akers gets the Jets, but that might not be a good thing given that Seattle benched their starters in the third quarter last week. There is a huge range of outcomes with this position, but it's one that Esco absolutely needs if he wants a chance this week. I like his odds.
Edge: Esco

WR:
We probably won't know Julio's status until after Friday's practice, but for these purposes I'm assuming he does not play and Barnard gets one last laugh this season. That leaves Gutman with a similar situation as last week, where he has four receivers that are probably better than any of his opponent's best guy. The biggest decision is whether Gutman starts Aiyuk over Woods or Jefferson. I think I'd probably start him over Woods, who is already banged up and might not see too many snaps against the Jets, but even if Julio plays, this isn't close.
Big Edge: Gutman 

TE:
Both Hock and Gronk are extremely TD-dependent, and they both get to play terrible pass defenses this week. Hock is a bigger part of his offense, but with Stafford seemingly unlikely to play, that may even things out. I'm not going to predict who gets the random two-yard TD so this is a true coin flip.
Edge: Even

DST:
A continuation of Gutman's excellent roster management saw him flip Devante Parker and the Fins D to a desperate Kumpf team for Aiyuk and the Steelers D. Whether he starts Aiyuk or not, Pitt's D gets to feast on the decimated Bengals, while Esco has to hope the Giants can tread water against Cleveland without Bradberry. 
Big Edge: Gutman

Overall:
Esco's team has been extremely solid all year, but as previously mentioned repeatedly, he's been propped up by TDs. Adding Cam Akers was huge, but losing both Will Fuller and likely Julio means the #1 overall seed is going to be a one and done.
Pick: Gutman

Matchup 2: 2) Levine vs. 3) Weissbard

QB:
Herbert did a great job keeping Levine's season afloat after the Dak injury, and Kyler hasn't looked right in weeks, but it seems like the Chargers will have no pass catchers tonight and that doubly hurts Levine.
Edge: Weissbard

RB:
Montgomery has low-key been a top 10 RB this year, but again, this isn't really close. Moss might vulture a TD or two, and JRob has to face the Ravens, but Ekeler is in line for double digit targets and likely has a baseline of 20 points. Levine is too banged up to keep up.
Edge: Weissbard

WR:
This is Levine's strongest position by far, with Ridley establishing himself even without Julio, and Thielen and Robby top 20 options as well. Having said that, no one can touch Weiss's trio of top 10 (5?) options. I'm sensing a theme here...
Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Logan Thomas vs. Evan Engram? Gross.
Edge: Even

DST:
Levine is starting a below average Vikings defense against a bottom 10 offense in Chicago. Weissbard is starting a terrible Chargers defense against an average offense in the Raiders. Not a lot of upside in either case, but Weiss could end up in the negatives.
Edge: Levine

Overall:
Levine avoided the ultimate embarrassment of starting 7-0 and missing the playoffs, and even got a bye for his troubles, but the road ends here. He put up a hell of a fight after losing Dak and Mixon, but the firepower the Weiss has at receiver, along with Ekeler's resurgence, sets up a meeting of the previous two champs.
Pick: Weissbard

MotW Record: 16-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Raiders (-3) vs. Chargers

Bills (-6) at Broncos

Packers (-7) vs. Panthers

Colts (-7) vs. Texans

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars

Dolphins (+1) vs. Patriots

Bucs (-6.5) at Falcons

Saints (+3) vs. Chiefs

Last Week: 2-3
2020 Record: 41-39-3 (-3.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Quarterfinal Preview

Well that was unexpected. Despite my Matchup of the Week predictions going 5-2, the two that I got wrong were the most influential as AGD completed an epic collapse and Esco extremely quietly earned himself Best Regular Season Record and a bye. Now we have Backdoor Barnard in the playoffs again, Dadbard surprisingly needs to play in Week 14, and Levine even more quietly got the other bye. Can't predict fantasy football.

AGD should be ashamed of themselves for losing to Billy in Week 14, which was their third loss to a non-playoff team, but they can't say I didn't warn them. Since the draft, I raved about their starting lineup but mentioned that their complete lack of depth left them vulnerable to injuries and would make trading difficult. They did make one trade, theoretically combining Flex options in McKinnon and some rookie WR for Kenny Golladay, but Golladay could never really get healthy and that rookie put up the best rookie WR season since Randy Moss. That left them starting Jalen Richard, Jakobi Meyers, and a WR catching passes from Colt McCoy with their season on the line. Maybe some time apart is what you guys need.

I'll cover Esco and Levine more next week, but even though they're not playing, they need to keep a close eye on Week 14. Esco may see De'Andre Swift come back, which means he may also see the modern day Jahvid Best get another concussion, putting "Adrian Peterson, playoff starter" in play. Julio's health and the backfield situations for the Rams and Jets are also important for a potential title run. Levine needs to hope that Herbert can score some points against Atlanta, while figuring out if he has a startable Tight End on his roster. The wild card out there for Levine is a Mixon return, though I don't know why they would bring him back at this point.

On to the Quarterfinals, Dr. Z style.

Matchup 1: 3) Weissbard vs. 6) Marco

QB:
What a showdown! Russ vs. Kyler and both playing the Jersey teams? Sign me up. The Giants D has proven itself the last few weeks, but I'm not sure how they'll contain Kyler once he's on the run. That said, I know how the Jets will handle Russ and it looks like 30+ points.
Edge: Marco

RB:
I'm assuming that neither CMC or Gibson plays, and that is bad news for Marco. Mike Davis could still be legit, and maybe Peyton Barber can break 25 yards if he gets 20 carries, but Weissbard's stable of RB1s wins the day here no matter who he goes with.
Big Edge: Weissbard

WR:
Keenan Allen should have himself a day against a terrible Falcons D, and I really like Crowder with Darnold back (Higgins is a non-factor without Burrow), but let's be real, Tyreek/Nuk/Diggs is untouchable.
Big Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Hunter Henry benefits from the same Falcons D that helps Keenan, and as long as they don't cannibalize each other (or we have a Mike Williams game?), I like Marco's situation here. Bonus points for Engram dropping a pass that leads to a game-turning pick six against the Cards.
Edge: Marco

DST:
The Panthers defense is nothing special, but Drew Lock loves turning the ball over, so it's not a bad situation this week. Marco is likely setting himself up for disaster by starting WFT in a must-win for both teams, and while they have a nice front seven, I trust Shanny to find some holes.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

Overall:
There was bound to be a week where Weissbard failed to break 100, as he had six straight weeks of triple digits heading into Rivalry Week, and that happened last week. That is not going to happen this week, and unless one or both of Marco's RBs has a miraculous recovery or Russ breaks 50, I don't think Marco has the firepower to keep up.
Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 2: 4) Barnard vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
Another incredible QB showdown! We probably have the top four MVP candidates facing off this week, which gives a significantly higher floor to both matchups than usual. For this one, I'm taking my life in my hands and going against Mahomes. Not only are the Dolphins a more difficult matchup than the Lions, but the Chiefs have low-key struggled to score TDs, failing to get one on their last 7 redzone trips, the longest streak in the league this year (come to the FALAFEL blog for Gutman's goofy face, stay for the random NFL trivia). Not a big edge, but one that will absolutely matter.
Slight Edge: Gutman

RB:
This is a tough one. Gutman should get 30+ from Henry against the Jags, but the dropoff to Gallman is pretty significant. Barnard's got Chubb, Melvin, and RoJo with different levels of competition, and a high floor of touches despite there being no evidence that Melvin and RoJo are good at football. I would love it if these guys decided to roll out Ingram vs. Dobbins on MNF, but I'll take Barnard's quantity over Gut's quality here.
Slight Edge: Barnard

WR:
Brandon Aiyuk is clearly Gutman's fourth best receiver, and he would clearly be Barnard's best receiver.
Big Edge: Gutman

TE:
If Gronk scores, there is no way Gutman loses because it takes away a needed chance from Evans/RoJo. That said, if it wasn't for Kelce, Waller would be getting a shit ton of stories written about him this year.
Big Edge: Barnard

DST:
This is a fun one. Barnard has to bite the bullet and start a legit Rams D against the Pats in a must-win for them tonight. Gutman has the #1 DST on the season, but they're coming off a subpar performance against WFT and will have a tough matchup with the Bills. Defensive TD potential aside, I'm siding with Donald and Co.
Slight Edge: Barnard

Overall:
Having Chubb on MNF is a nice last licks for Barnard, but I really can't get past that WR matchup, where any one of Gut's guys could outscore both of Barnard's receivers combined by 10+. This would be a lot closer if Barnard had a guy like DK Metcalf, but I guess there's always next year.
Pick: Gutman

MotW Record: 14-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Bears (+2) vs. Texans

Falcons (-1.5) at Chargers

Packers (-9) at Lions

Football Team (+3) vs. 49ers

Steelers (+3) at Bills

Last Week: 5-4
2020 Record: 39-36-3 (-2.22 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Rivalry Week Preview

We have somehow made it to the last week of the regular season without any NFL games being cancelled. Whether that's a good thing or not is a discussion for another day, because it's time for Rivalry Week!

I'll quickly run through each matchup at the bottom, as with a big $50 on the line, everyone has skin in the game this week. But the majority of this week's post will focus on...

Playoff Picture

First things first. If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Gutman (NiJo Spot)

Let's look at each team's playoff hopes. For these races, I'm assuming that any one team cannot outscore another team by more than 66.04 points. This is the difference between Bennett and AGD, and keeps the most teams realistically alive this week. I have ordered the teams by likelihood to make the playoffs.

1. Weissbard - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Esco. Cannot fall farther than 4th seed.

2. Esco - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Weissbard. Cannot fall farther than 5th seed.

3. Marco - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Gutman. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Gutman by more than 12.58 and is also outscored by Barnard by more than 50.78. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

4. AGD - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Billy. The only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose to Billy, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores AGD by 27.89. In that situation they could avoid elimination if they outscore a losing Levine team by 17.13 and outscore Gutman by 10.33. They can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs. I only have them ahead of Levine here because their Rivalry Week matchup is far easier.

5. Levine - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Bennett. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Bennett, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores Levine by 45.01. In that situation he could avoid elimination if he is not outscored by a losing AGD team by 17.13, and is not outscored by Gutman by 6.9. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

6. Gutman - Has a few paths to the playoffs. If he beats Marco by more than 12.58, he wins the division and clinches a top 5 seed. Even if he loses or doesn't have the margin to pass Marco, he is the leader in the clubhouse for the NiJo spot, with leads of 10.32 over AGD, 38.2 over Barnard. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he is outscored by Barnard by 38.21. Gutman's rise from the dead may seem incredible, but if you've been following this blog closely, you'll remember that I mentioned this all the way back in Week 6 as something in play for a soon-to-be 2-5 Gutman team.

7. Barnard - The most fun situation to discuss. Based on the 66.04 point limit, Barnard cannot pass Esco, and he's not eligible to win Gutman's division, so his only options are the Wild Cards and the NiJo spot. To get a Wild Card he needs to beat Ajay, and outscore a losing AGD team by 27.89, or outscore a losing Levine team by 45.01. To get the NiJo spot, he needs to outscore a losing Marco team by 50.79, or outscore a losing Gutman team by 38.21. Lots of faint hope for Barnard, which means he's basically rooting against the entire league and hoping that trading for Week 13 bye players didn't sink his season.

8. Bennett - This is not as fun as Barnard because it is much simpler and much more unrealistic. To make the playoffs, Bennett needs to beat Levine and outscore a losing AGD team by 66.04. If Bennett has that big of a week, he can theoretically catch Gutman for the NiJo spot or Levine for a Wild Card, but it's more likely that the season gets cancelled than things break Bennett's way.

Everyone else is eliminated, ending my historic four-year playoff streak.

Matchups of the Week:

These matchups will be listed in order of significance, and the "analysis" will also reflect that.

Matchup 1: Alan vs. Zacherman

There are two matchups with absolutely no playoff ramifications, and this gets the bottom spot for reasons I'll discuss in a minute. This matchup will come down to whether or not Lamar and Andrews can play against a porous Dallas defense on Tuesday. Right now it's very up in the air, but I'll lean towards Z anyway because he has better matchups.

Pick: Zacherman

Matchup 2: Joseph vs. Kumpf

Nick has been suspiciously quiet this season, and while paying Barnard was a positive step, I feel like we may start to hear rumblings that he's re-retiring very soon. That would have a ripple effect throughout the league, as AGD's performance has been shockingly different together than apart, so we may be stuck looking for replacements again. As for the matchup, a poor Nick team is missing Brady and Godwin, so a poor Kumpf team should roll.

Pick: Kumpf

Matchup 3: Ajay vs. Barnard

Barnard's playoff situation is very interesting, but the matchup itself isn't as important as him just putting up points. He'll have to do that without the help of Mike Evans and RoJo, with a lot riding on a Chiefs/Broncos game that will likely be on the low-scoring side. Best case scenario here is that Barnard outscores a losing Levine and/or AGD team by the requisite amount, but Ajay has his best game of the season to knock Barnard out of the playoffs anyway.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Billy

LOTS of playoff implications based on AGD's performance here, but a win is all-but guaranteed. An already abysmal Billy team is missing Dimes and DJ Moore, so even if the Raiders starting RB is switching sides, this matchup should not be close. Though I did say that about AGD last week...

Pick: AGD

Matchup 5: Esco vs. Weissbard

The stakes here are huge for the winner, but the loser is still in good shape. From a playoff perspective anyway, as Esco's team is falling apart in front of our eyes. Keke Coutee is in no way a substitute for a roided up Will Fuller, and between Julio, Swift, and Kamara, I put the over/under at 4 more games this season. On top of all that, Weissbard gets Ekeler back just as Conner gets the Rona. Baby Lily's coronation starts now.

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 6: Gutman vs. Marco

These two teams improved themselves via trade more than any other teams over the course of the season (possibly related, they both traded with Barnard). Marco loses his Panthers RB stronghold, though Gutman's downgrade from Gronk to Fant may be just as large. This pick to me comes down to the current flex situation. Gutman has likely OROY and legit WR1 Justin Jefferson, Marco has the backup RB for the Bills.

Pick: Gutman

Matchup 7: Bennett vs. Levine

Maybe an unlikely pick for the most important matchup of the week given Bennett's play long-shot status, but Levine is the playoff contender who is most at risk of getting upset, which would potentially cause chaos. He's also listed as the underdog thanks to Robby Anderson's bye and Mixon's continued cursed existence. I like Levine's odds more than ESPN does, as I think the Vikings will ease Dalvin's workload if possible, which would benefit both Thielan and the Minny D. The Herbert/Cam showdown is a nice cherry on top here, and while the Chargers love finding ways to lose, Herbert still throws up numbers.

Pick: Levine

MotW Record: 9-6

Playoff Seed Predictions
1. Weissbard

2. AGD

3. Levine

4. Esco

5. Gutman

6. Marco

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals

Titans (-4) vs. Browns

Raiders (-7) at Jets

Cardinals (+3) vs. Rams

Patriots (+1.5) at Chargers

Packers (-8) vs. Eagles

Steelers (-7) vs. Football Team

Bills (+1) vs. 49ers

Ravens (-7) vs. Cowboys

Last Week: 4-4
2020 Record: 34-32-3 (-2.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Week 12 Preview

 It's a short week, we're past the trade deadline, and hopefully none of you are perusing the FALAFEL blog on Thanksgiving, so I'll keep this brief. After a quick review of the Playoff Picture, I'll use the obvious gimmick of listing one thing each team can be thankful for this season. Enjoy the long weekend and don't give your families the 'Rona.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. AGD (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Weissbard (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Esco (Levine Division Champ)
4. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
5. Levine (Wild Card 2)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

These last two regular season weeks have the potential for chaos. Seeds 2-6 above all have the same record, and Barnard and I are a game back, so things could shift a lot from week to week. Gutman is 27 points back from the NiJo spot, so he's still alive, but Zacherman is next at 88 points which is where I draw the line for the playoffs. Luckily the schedule gods (Felix at League Lobster) made it so the top 8 teams by record are playing each other this week, which makes for a wildly entertaining Thanksgiving week, and the first expansion of the Matchup of the Week in 2020.

Week 12 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)
Thankful for: Baby Lily. Weiss has a lot to be thankful for this year: the top QB (and fantasy player period), two healthy top 15 RBs plus Ekeler waiting in the wings with Gio as just excess depth, and three top 8 receivers. His TE situation got a one week boost, but now it's back to being his Achilles heel. Either way, the emergence of Dadbard is enough to take the cake here.

2. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

Thankful for: Baker Mayfield and Cleveland weather. Obscure choices here, but if Baker took a step forward this year and/or it was ever not hailing in Cleveland, Kareem Hunt would not be a borderline RB1 on the season. Instead, Baker regressed and loves to check down, and Cleveland stayed Cleveland, so Hunt may carry this team to the best Regular Season Record award and a bye.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Thankful for: Russell Wilson. Marco has built a pretty strong team over the course of the season, but before he collected the Panthers backfield and Gibson took the lead back role in DC, he essentially had a one man team in Russ. That carried him to early victories over me and Ajay, which kept him alive to take over Gutman's sad excuse for a division.

4. Esco (Last Week: 2nd)

Thankful for: Touchdowns. All season Esco has put up big numbers, but they have been fueled by absurd TD totals, and relatively minimal yards/receptions. It's carried him to the verge of a bye so far, but regression has been looming all season. We'll see if the season of giving continues to gift Esco with repeated 6-point boosts.

5. Bennett (Last Week: 7th)

Thankful for: Free Agent Auctions. Yes, Dalvin has been great, but if Bennett didn't have Chase Claypool and Nyheim Hines, he would have been eliminated weeks ago. Those two, in addition to James Robinson, Justin Herbert, and Justin Jefferson, have been among the best free agent additions of the year.

6. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

Thankful for: The NiJo Rule. It took this team awhile to find it's footing, but there's enough talent here to make a late run. That wouldn't be possible without the NiJo slot, as Gut's slow start would have sunk him if he had to make the playoffs on record alone.

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

Thankful for: Patrick Mahomes. Similar to Marco, Barnard was carried early by his QB, which helped make up for a roster that was lacking in other areas. Unlike Marco, Barnard decided to use trades to make his team worse, so he's still basically Mahomes or bust.

8. Levine (Last Week: 4th)

Thankful for: Alan. Without Alan gift-wrapping a top five QB for the immortal Dalton Schultz, Levine's freefall would look even worse. I was hoping the haircut would sink Herbert, but the Jets wouldn't let that happen. Regardless, Thielen might have COVID and Mixon is likely out for the year, so Levine's grip on a playoff spot may be loosening.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

Thankful for: Felix at League Lobster. My team is not great. It's not fun. It has a limited ceiling. But through the luck of scheduling, I control my own destiny if I can beat a perpetually underwhelming Barnard team, and a long left for dead Nick team. I could say that my team is just rounding into form and I'm all aboard the Gus Bus, but I'm not delusional about my chances this year.

10. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)

Thankful for: Davante Adams. Zacherman's team was pretty dependent on the Ravens passing game, which is probably the reason he was eliminated last week. But it's still nice to know that you hit on an expensive pick who is the WR1 on the season despite missing 2.5 games. Adams is current outscoring all other WRs by over 4 points per game. Great draft pick, see you next year.

11. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

12. Ajay (Last Week:12th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th) 

Thankful for: These four teams can be thankful that I talked about them last week.

Matchups of the Week: 

Matchup 1: Barnard vs. Kumpf
We start with the two of the worst teams still alive, but this is essentially an elimination game. For me it absolutely is, and while Barnard would still likely be in play for the NiJo slot, he would need to make up some serious ground in Week 13, when he loses Evans and RoJo.
For this week, Barnard has the obvious edge at QB and TE plus RB1 with Chubb taking on the Jags, but outside of that, we're even or I have the advantage. I like having last licks, but considering last licks this week means relying on the Bears passing game, the advantage is negated. When all else fails, bet on Mahomes.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 2: Esco vs. Marco
The stakes here are not as dire, but the potential reward is larger. The winner here stays in play for a bye as well as the Best Regular Season record prize, and Marco will straight up clinch the division if he wins. The loser is still in pretty good shape based on Points Scored, but will make Week 13 (vs. Weissbard and Gutman respectively) more of a must-win. That means Esco needs this a hell of a lot more than Marco does.
Unfortunately for Esco, half his team is banged up, and while Ben and Hockenson should play, Swift and Julio are a lot more iffy. The other weird factor in this matchup is that more than half of Esco's ideal lineup plays Thursday, while Marco just has his token Washington players. That's going to make this showdown even more disjointed than usual, and unless Esco can take a massive lead into Sunday, he's in trouble. Spoiler alert: He's in trouble.

Pick: Marco

Matchup 3: Bennett vs. Weissbard
Weissbard is in a very similar position to Esco, where one win over the next two weeks will clinch the playoffs given his high point total. Also like Esco, he has two matchups that are not going to be walkovers. Bennett is currently up 20 in the NiJo spot race, so more than anything, he needs to keep putting up 100+. He also has a chance to move up in the standings if Esco and/or Levine loses. Lots of moving parts here.

The highlight of this matchup is the QB showdown, and while Kyler is obviously favored there, if Cam keeps it close, this gets very interesting. Weissbard's RBs are hampered by tough matchups, injuries to their QBs, or both, so Bennett has a huge advantage there, but Weiss makes up for that with his absurd receiver situation. I think this comes down to Claypool and Ebron having big games. They both did it last week, but I can't see lightning striking twice (or 12 times in Claypool's case).

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Levine

A win for AGD essentially clinches them Best Regular Season Record and a bye, as they get Billy in Rivalry Week, so they would be able to take two weeks off ahead of the Semi-Finals. The much more interesting situation surrounds Levine. After starting 7-0, he has lost four straight and gets AGD and Bennett to end the season. Those are by no means easy wins, so we could potentially see the most epic collapse in FALAFEL history here. He does have a 60 point advantage in the NiJo slot race, so wins and losses may not matter, but heading into the playoffs on a six game losing streak would not make anyone confident about Levine's odds.

This matchup is listed in the MotW section based on the stakes, but not based on the actual matchup. Levine has the walking wounded at RB, and has to hope that David Montgomery can play, which is never a good situation to be in. AGD not only has a better roster, but also great matchups, so I don't think this one is close at all.

Pick: AGD

MotW Record: 7-4

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Lions (+3) vs. Texans

Football Team (+3) at Cowboys

Dolphins (-7) at Jets

Raiders (-3) at Falcons

Colts (-3) vs. Titans

Bucs (+3.5) vs. Chiefs

Bears (+8) at Packers

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 30-28-3 (-2.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Week 11 Preview

With the Trade Deadline coming up Friday, there are still several questions looming over the league. Can Weissbard runaway with the #1 seed? Will over-performing teams like Bennett, Barnard, and myself make an actual playoff push? Can Gutman stay alive long enough to defend his title? Will Esco con anyone into taking RoJo?

So while the offline chatter is all about trade negotiations, and next week we will focus entirely on the playoff races, this week we can take some time to look at the teams that are out of it, and figure out what went wrong. Considering a whopping 9 of our 14 teams are .500 or better (and Gutman has an outside shot at the NiJo spot), this deep dive will focus only on the teams that don't really have a shot at the playoffs even if they win out, starting with the most obvious failure in FALAFEL history.

Billy
What went wrong?
For better parts of the last decade, Billy has held firm to the strategy of drafting two highly priced RBs and hoping to get lucky with injuries and depth. It has paid off enough to get him a chef's coat, but it's definitely a boom/bust strategy. This year he went bigger than ever, taking the consensus top two RBs in Saquon and CMC, but the luck factor took a turn early when they both got injured for essentially the entire fantasy season. His depth amounted to DJ Moore, Marvin Jones, and Jared Cook, which I didn't hate at the time, but they have all failed to live up to even modest expectations. Joe Burrow was a nice $1 pick, but there was really no other value in the draft. Combine that with an abysmal CMC trade return, and this was just a nightmare season. Even your potential silver lining of beating me after getting 40 fucking points from Devontae Booker and Rex Burkhead fell short when Foles and Jimmy Graham got outscored by Allen Robinson.
What could he have done differently?
Outside of "not spending $145 on two players", I think you should think about investing in some handcuffs. That would have hurt your ceiling elsewhere, and likely still wouldn't have given you a shot at the playoffs, but it would have made the season a little less brutal.

Nick
What went wrong?
Unlike Billy, Nick drafted a team that balanced high end talent and depth, which made him one of my favorites coming out of the draft. However, like Billy, injuries killed him. Godwin, Mostert, and A.J. Brown were never healthy at the same time, and depth pieces that did stay healthy like Jarvis Landry and James White were total busts. Even now, a core of Brady/CEH/Moster/Brown/Godwin is average or better in this league, but somehow Nick is 1-9.
What could he have done differently?
Throughout the season I preached patience for this team, with the thought that when it got healthy, it would make moves toward the NiJo spot. Unfortunately it never got healthy. So in hindsight, an early trade for an RB2 would have made sense, as that position has been cripplingly bad most of the season.

Ajay
What went wrong?
Another combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. Ajay got next to nothing from Courtland Sutton, one big week from Kittle, and random good games from Carson, but the bigger issues have been Kenyan Drake and JuJu. Those guys were healthy enough to start, but rarely produced at the level commensurate with their draft cost. Just a Murphy's Law season all around.
What could he have done differently?
The answer here is probably "drafted better players", but that can be said for any disappointing team. Trading Kittle when he first got hurt would have helped, but similar to the other teams here, this team never really had a chance.

Alan
What went wrong?
Michael Thomas was straight bad luck, but Alan dropped $18 on Cam Akers, who responded with 21.9 points for the entire season, despite only missing two games. That may go down as the worst draft pick of the season when it comes to just lack of production unrelated to injury. His TE draft debacle also didn't help, though Goedert showed flashes at time.
What could he have done differently?
Spending those 18 Akers dollars elsewhere would have been a good start, as well as trading Thomas early, but the biggest issue is that Alan got off to a good start that was clearly fool's gold, so he didn't make any moves. Josh Allen and Aaron Jones were great picks, but this team missing the playoffs can come down to complacency. Thank god we don't have to put a team name that came from a random GroupMe like on an oven mitt.

And with that, we say goodbye to those teams.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today (pending Week 10 Stat Corrections), the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

Barnard, Zacherman, and myself are all a game out of playoff spots (requiring tiebreakers), and Gutman is also within 60 of the NiJo spot, so that rounds out the teams that are still alive. Zacherman and I are playing a de facto elimination game, and Gutman needs to start gaining ground quickly, so this group could be pared down further as soon as next week.

Trade Grade 13
Barnard receives Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, and Rams D/ST
Esco receives Julio Jones and Boston Scott
Fucking Barnard. He "upgraded" from Melvin Gordon to RoJo at RB2 which I would argue is essentially the same thing, while going from a top 5 WR to a WR20ish and I guess adding a D/ST. He also loses both Evans and RoJo for Week 13, so he basically guaranteed himself a loss there.
Esco, essentially did the exact opposite, and with Swift getting a starting RB workload, it's a good bit of business. I already had him in 2nd below, so no real change there, but Weissbard vs. Esco Week 13 looks a lot like a Regular Season Championship Game.
Grades:
Barnard: C-
Esco: A

Trade Grade 14
Gutman receives Brandon Aiyuk and Steelers D/ST
Kumpf receives DeVante Parker and Dolphins D/ST
So this is the trade that vaults Gutman and/or Kumpf into playoff contention? I don't see it. Even after the trade neither team is favored in their must-win matchups this week.

I like this trade slightly more for Gutman because Aiyuk is the most talented here and Gutman can absorb the bye week with his current lineup. DeVante seems to have taken a back seat in terms of targets and priority since Tua came on the stage. The potential argument in Kumpf's favor is that the Dolphins have three extremely winnable games in a row where the coaches might take the training wheels off of Tua and the defense should be able to rack up some significant points. But not since the Barndog Pats D/ST days has a defense carried a team to victory. So while I was forced to write about this trade for the blog, I doubt we will speak of it ever again.
Grades:
Gutman: B-
Kumpf: B-

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

2. Esco (Last Week: 5th)

3. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

4. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

5. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)

6. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

7. Bennett (Last Week: 9th)

8. Barnard (Last Week: 7th)

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th)

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

12. Ajay (Last Week:13th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 12th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Weissbard aka The AGD Division Championship Game

The most obvious pick of the year. The stakes are high, as the winner takes a one-game lead in the division, and if Weissbard wins, it's essential two games given his point total. The loser is still in the thick of it, but would be one more loss away from being very nervous.

As for the matchup itself, the Giants bye has a weirdly outsized impact this week, leading to guys like Kalen Ballage, Logan Thomas, and the Chargers D playing key roles in this showdown, not to mention Antonio Brown and potential league-winner Jakobi Meyers. AGD's massive advantage is Kelce as always, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of his matchups. Weissbard's squad has more question marks, but Kyler and Nuk could easily break 60 against Seattle, so I'm not betting against Dadbard. Looks like he's gonna have to adopt Reap.

Pick: Weissbard

MotW Record: 7-3

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Saints (-3) vs. Falcons

Bengals (-1) at Football Team

Steelers (-10) at Jaguars

Chiefs (-7) at Raiders

Rams (+4.5) at Bucs

Last Week: 4-2
2020 Record: 27-26-3 (-2.52 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Week 10/Trade Deadline Preview

It's that time again! Time for my favorite post of the season, the Trade Deadline Preview. The deadline in this league is next Friday, so I'm giving everyone a week to make their final playoff pushes or solidify their starting lineups. But first we have a real trade to deal with:

Trade Grade 12
Ajay receives Leonard Fournette and Carson Wentz
Marco receives Mike Davis
This is a very situational trade. Ajay needs a QB with Matty Ice on bye and Marco benefits from Davis's unclear role more than anyone else in the league. Throw in Fat Lenny, and we have a deal that makes sense for both sides. 

On the surface, Ajay gets a hell of a lot more value here. Wentz is about the same level as Ryan, so he can stream based on matchups, and Fournette is a solid Flex option when Drake and Carson are healthy, and a decent replacement when they're not. Mike Davis has shown that he's a high-end handcuff, and Marco has eyes on a Chef's Coat, so cuffing CMC is a must. He also didn't need Wentz, so while Ajay benefitted from that aspect, Marco wasn't really hurt. I'll give Ajay the slight edge in a win-win trade.
Grades:
Ajay: B+
Marco: B
Note: Grades applied at the time of the trade, so CMC being questionable (but not ruled out) for this week was the latest news.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Levine (Levine Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye)
2. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ, Bye)
3. Esco (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

Bennett is currently beating Barnard by 0.54 points for the NiJo Spot, and after some duds last week, the only other teams really in play are Zacherman and Gutman. The race for the second bye is also tight, as we have 5 teams tied at 6-3.

Mock Trades
As always, I've put together a mock trade for each team. Some of these make more sense that others, but hopefully it gets people at least talking so we can push the total trade number towards 20 this year.

Mock Trade 1
Ajay receives Chase Edmonds and David Montgomery
Levine receives Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde
A few of these mock trades will have the same theme: contending teams trading for injured players and teams barely hanging on trading for short term help. This trade gives Levine a higher ceiling RB group at the expense of some of his depth, while Ajay corners the Arizona RB situation and picks up another low-end RB2/Flex option at the same time.

Mock Trade 2
Bennett receives Joe Burrow, Corey Davis, and Ravens D/ST
Billy receives Cam Newton, Jamaal Williams, and Michael Gallup
It is admittedly hard to find a trade with Billy involved because he has the absolute worst roster in FALAFEL history (though he will likely beat me this week). His only relative strengths are Burrow and the Ravens D, but Burrow doesn't provide a clear upgrade to anyone but maaaaybe Bennett. That leaves us here, with Bennett upgrading at QB and DST without really hurting his starting lineup. Billy's only real goal should be Weekly High Score and Rivalry Week prizes, so Cam and Gallup provide random upside, and Jamaal would be an RB1 if Jones gets hurt again. Moving on!

Mock Trade 3
Kumpf receives A.J. Brown, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson
Nick receives Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, and Diontae Johnson
Nick is in a similar situation to Billy, where his goal is just increase his upside in random weeks, especially Week 13 (This is all a moot point if he doesn't pay Barnard). I am in the opposite situation, where I need wins wherever I can get them to keep a completely undeserved playoff push alive. This gives Nick a huge boost at RB, and does the same to me at WR, where we can both rely on our depth to fill in the gaps.

Mock Trade 4
Esco receives J.K. Dobbins, Sony Michel, and Robert Woods
Gutman receives, D'Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Mike Evans
I think we can all agree that Esco is not going to be able to unload RoJo, so his best path at an upgrade is to package the Lions RBs with a WR. In this case, he gets a high upside RB in Dobbins, while upgrading his reliability at receiver. Gutman solidifies his RB2 situation, and his absurd WR depth allows him to take a flier on Evans rebounding before the end of the season.

Mock Trade 5
AGD receives Jonathan Taylor and Davante Adams
Zacherman receives Kareem Hunt and Tyler Lockett
Blockbuster alert! As I've said all year, AGD's discrepancy between amazing starting lineup and terrible depth makes trades very difficult, however this one may help both teams. Z has been riding high on Adams, while Taylor has disappointed, but you have to assume both players revert to the mean at some point. AGD has benefitted from Chubb's injury, but they have to be concerned about his workload moving forward. This trade alleviates regression/workload concerns on both sides, while giving Z more RB upside and AGD the WR1 moving forward.

Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Melvin Gordon, Royce Freeman, and Darren Waller
Barnard receives J.D. McKissic, Michael Thomas, and Dallas Goedert
None of these trades are likely to happen as written, but this one will NEVER happen given the parties involved. Both rosters are hilariously top heavy, but this trade gives Alan an RB2 for the first time all season, while finally solidifying his TE position. Barnard would be in a bad way at RB2, but he should be used to that at this point, and the Julio/Thomas WR duo would be super fun down the stretch. If this is even a possibility, I would pay $20 to watch the trade negotiations.

Mock Trade 7
Marco receives James Conner, Benny Snell, and Stefon Diggs
Weissbard receives Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis, and Tee Higgins
Another trade between these two? Honestly, they were the last two teams left, so I had to find something between them, but this isn't terrible. Weissbard is the top team right now, and this would raise his ceiling even further. Marco is still fighting for playoff positioning, so he upgrades his flex and doesn't have to worry about CMC's health down the stretch. If anyone would make a move like this, it's Marco, but I'm not sure if Dadbard has the focus to pull off something like this.

Week 10 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

3. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)

4. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

5. Esco (Last Week: 6th)

6. Gutman (Last Week: 7th)

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

8. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th)

9. Bennett (Last Week: 10th)

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 9th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 12th)

12. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

13. Ajay (Last Week:11th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Bennett

Another week with multiple huge matchups, including a Gutman/Z divisional battle and Barnard trying to keep hope alive against a surging Marco team. But AGD and Bennett are both 6-3, so the winner essentially clinches a playoff spot while the loser falls into the battle for the NiJo slot.

This is a big bye week across the league, and AGD losing Kelce is an enormous loss. If Golladay doesn't play as well, AGD is severely undermanned here, and despite Jakobi Meyers saving the day last week, I don't see a repeat performance coming. Bennett should get a boost with Sanders coming back, and while Dalvin is obviously a must-start, the Bears are a tough matchup. I don't see a huge edge here either way, but Bennett's team has more upside overall, while AGD needs Watson to break 30.

Pick: Bennett

MotW Record: 7-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Bucs (-6) at Panthers

Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Chargers

Bills (+3) at Cardinals

Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams

Steelers (-6.5) vs. Bengals

Bears (+3) vs. Vikings

Last Week: 1-4-1
2020 Record: 23-24-3 (-3.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 9 Preview

Another week, another flurry of absurd scores. Week 8 was led by Dalvin Cook, but Mahomes and Metcalf also broke the 30 point barrier, with Russ and Davante Adams not far behind. As I've said repeatedly, having as many of these guys as possible is the key to making the playoffs this year, and also means that no team is unbeatable. Levine and Weissbard look like a pretty clear top two, but there are a lot of teams below them that can put up huge points in any given week. That makes getting a bye extremely important, as winning three straight playoff games will be more difficult in this scoring (and COVID) environment than ever before.

With that in mind, let's take a look at where things stand:

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Levine (Levine Division Champ, Bye, Best Overall Record)
2. Esco (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ)
4. Barnard?!?! (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. AGD (NiJo Spot)

This is the most fun situation, as I expect Marco to separate himself in the Gutman Division now that CMC is back, so the race for the NiJo spot keeps six teams in play. Barnard as the four seed (and fifth most points) is the true shocker, but he also may not win another game even with Chubb coming back.

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)

Putting up 125 with Kyler, Hopkins and potential league-winner James Robinson on bye is extremely impressive. Doing it with your replacement QB not breaking 8 points is enough to take over the top spot once again.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

The Russian is cut! No one has gone undefeated in the regular season since the Cortesian pre-FALAFEL days, and this dream season was bound to hit a speed bump at some point. The fact you lasted this long after losing Dak and Mixon was crazy enough, and if anything having your entire team shit the bed at the same time isn't the worst case scenario.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Losing to Billy after trade raping him would have been poetic, but Russ refused to let that happen. Will be very interesting to see how CMC looks, but if he returns to 2019 form, you potentially have the top two players in fantasy right now.

4. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

That one hurt. With the chance to keep your division lead, you lost to an Alan team starting three players on the Jersey teams. Between the weather in Cleveland, byes, and mid-game injuries, this was a Murphy's Law game, but as mentioned your team could not afford an injury to a core player and Golladay will be difficult to replace.

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 4th)

The schedule gods smiled on you this week, as a loss would have been devastating heading into this week's showdown. On the plus side, Davante looked really good and Scary Terry is off bye. On the down side, all of your RBs appear to be injured and Lamar isn't the same this year.

6. Esco (Last Week: 6th)

Kamara and Evans showed up, but difficult matchups proved to be too much for the rest of your squad and you blew the chance at taking over the top seed. Your team continues to confuse me, as your Bucs should theoretically be headed in the wrong direction due to AB and Fat Lenny asking for touches, but your Lions may make up for that with Golladay's injury. I have a feeling you will stay in 6th for the rest of the season no matter what.

7. Gutman (Last Week: 8th)

There he is! The trades finally paid off, as Rodgers looked to be in MVP form, Metcalf continues to ruin Barnard's life, and Rob Woods made us all smile. Dobbins even had a good day on your bench, so there was no way to lose. This team is an RB2 away from jumping into the top four.

8. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)

Last week was a huge win for your playoff hopes, and while you did break 100, your fantasy "defense" is still pretty insane. Your opponents have scored the same amount of points as Billy's team this year (somehow Alan and Esco's opponents have scored less than that), and this week you get Nick. You probably need to win 3 of your last 5 to feel comfortable, and with Chubb coming back, it's still in play. I can't wait to see how you fuck it up.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 7th)

My team has averaged 94 points per week, but if you asked anyone in this league (myself included) if my team has ever broken 100, I think we would all say no. What a forgettable season. Zeke and Gurley on the block. (and I've broken 100 three times)

10. Bennett (Last Week: 11th)

You will likely be the only team in ESPN Fantasy that misses the playoffs with Dalvin Cook. Some of that is bad luck from an injury/COVID perspective, but losses to Billy, Gutman and me really hurt. You have the toughest schedule left in the league, so it would be a huge upset if you went on a run at this point.

11. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)

The Mike Davis Experience comes to an end this week, and while Damien Harris appears to be RB1 in New England for the moment, I'm not sure how valuable that is. I put your team as the last one still alive for the NiJo slot, so wins and losses mean a lot less than just scoring points moving forward. So... score points I guess?

12. Alan (Last Week: 12th)

The exception to the rule this season. Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, and Michael Thomas should theoretically be the 30-point studs that you need to compete for the playoffs. Instead, Allen has fizzled while Jones and Thomas have struggled to stay healthy. Your "defense" somehow has you just a game back in the division, but you need an injury miracle to stay in that race. Might be worth looking to trade Thomas to a team with a more settled playoff spot to keep your season alive.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

The NiJo spot was your only real hope at the playoffs, but last week may have sunk that ship. You now need to make up 16 points per game on AGD, with five other teams to pass as well. Your toughest decision will be whether to pay Barnard or pull a Donny and retire in disgrace.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Your CMC trade for depth while he was injured netted you a total of...zero wins. Avoiding the Shot Spot is really the only motivation at this point.

Matchup of the Week: Marco vs. Zacherman

Most weeks this season, picking the MotW has been a slog. The best teams have beaten up on the worst, and we haven't really had many showdowns or playoff previews. That changed this week, with several options for this spot. But the Grandaddy of them all is the de facto Division Championship game between Marco and Z. Because Marco has a 30 point lead on Z, everyone in contention for the NiJo slot should be pulling for him to take the division lead.

The actual matchup should align well with everyone's rooting interest. Z's path to victory will require Lamar, JTT, and Andrews to put up 60+ against their opposing defenses, which does not seem very likely, especially if Taylor is limited. On top of that, Marco has some pretty nice matchups, and even if CMC doesn't get a full workload, I'm forecasting Marco to win big. It's not like anyone ever goes wrong by betting on the Hispanics to come through right?

Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 6-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

49ers (+7) vs. Packers

Chiefs (-10) vs. Panthers

Bear (+7) at Titans

Lions (+4) at Vikings

Dolphins (+6) at Cardinals

Charger (+2.5) vs. Raiders

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 22-20-2 (-0.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 7 Recap

The value of a player in fantasy football depends primarily on two things: talent and situation. Some players are going to be good no matter where they play, and some will suck no matter what, but for the most part they are somewhere in the middle. That's never been more evident than 2020, as we've seen the situation change drastically for several players, sometimes from week-to-week.

Take the Cowboys. Before Dak got hurt, they had the QB1, RB3, three top 25 WRs, and a top 10 TE. Since then, absolute garbage. I have to assume they'll bounce back a little bit, but with all the O-Line injuries they're facing, even if the QB play improves, the ceiling is much lower than it was just a month ago. Situational changes have also played a huge role for players like James Robinson (random no-name who benefitted from a very sad COVID situation), Chase Claypool (WR1 when Diontae is hurt, special teams player when Diontae's playing), and Kareem Hunt (RB2 with Chubb active, RB1 when he's not).

Most people in this league have some sense of this (other than Barnard, who has a very odd sense of both talent and situation, as displayed by his continued loyalty to Melvin Gordon and the Patriots), but no one takes advantage as much as Levine. His year-over-year dominance has been truly amazing, and his strategy is pretty much unchanged since he took over for Kimmel: draft a deep team with a few upside picks, but don't over-rely on any player. He doesn't tend to make trades (this year aside), but he never really needs to. And now he's on pace for a chef's hat despite losing Dak and trading for a damaged Mixon.

(Takes reverse JuJu hat off)

Playoff Picture

This Sunday is November 1st, which means it's time to take a look at the playoff picture. Below I'll run through each of the playoff spots, and take a look at which team is the favorite and who else is in play.

Levine Division Champ
Favorite: Levine
In The Hunt: Esco
This is clearly a two-man race, as Esco has kept pace with Levine every step of the way since losing to him Week 2. The tiebreak here is Points Scored, so the head-to-head matchup isn't as devastating as it looks, and Esco is only 17 points back. This will be a fun race to the finish, and the two schedules here are pretty similar as well. The loser will also likely be in line for a bye, so it may not actually matter who wins the division.

AGD Division Champ
Favorite: AGD
In The Hunt: Weissbard
Another two man race, though Alan and I are still technically alive, this one still has a big matchup in Week 11. AGD has a one game lead right now, but faces a schedule mixed with the top teams and the bottom teams, while Weissbard's is more balanced leading up to a potentially massive Rivalry Week with Esco. The winner will have a shot at a bye, but it's very possible that these two will meet in the first round of the playoffs as well.

Gutman Division "Champ"
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Marco, Gutman
This cesspool will need to crown a champion, but outside of record, this division actually has three of the top eight teams in the Power Rankings below. And from a scheduling perspective, Zacherman, Marco, and Gutman still have to play each other, with most of them facing Nick and/or Billy as well. I don't see any one team making a run to 9 wins, but we're not talking about the NFC East here either. I give Z a small edge but this will change weekly.

Wild Cards
Favorites: Esco, Weissbard
In The Hunt: Barnard, Marco
This may be the easiest spot to project right now, with the losers of the Levine and AGD divisions overwhelmingly likely to take the Wild Card spots. Barnard's record and Marco's team strength technically keep them alive here, but that's much more likely to matter for our next spot.

NiJo Spot
Favorite: Marco
In The Hunt: Barnard, Ajay, Bennett, Kumpf, Nick, Gutman
This is the first year in awhile where one team hasn't gotten fucked by the schedule to make them the obvious choice here. The loser of Marco/Z seems like the front-runner right now, and while Barnard would be next in line, his team is predictably headed in the wrong direction. The fun situation is if Marco wins the division, because at that point there are six teams within 60 points (8.5ppg) of Barnard. I like this spot the most because it keeps Nick alive in what would be one of the more unlikely playoff pushes in FALAFEL history.

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

2. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

3. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

4. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th)

5. Marco (Last Week: 8th)

6. Esco (Last Week: 4th)

7. Kumpf (Last Week: 5th)

8. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

9. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)

10. Barnard (Last Week: 11th)

11. Bennett (Last Week: 12th)

12. Alan (Last Week: 10th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Esco

I usually use the Power Rankings to determine the MotW, but this week we have a divisional matchup between teams over .500, so that wins the day. As referenced above, Esco needs to keep winning to keep pace with Levine, while Barnard's only shot at the playoffs is to luck into three more wins and hope for the best.

Barnard has a few things working in his favor this week. Mahomes is facing the Jets, and while that may mean it's the Chad Henne show, I think the Chiefs will want to use this as an opportunity to get the passing game back on track. Lindsay's injury means drunk Melvin should get more touches, though starting multiple Broncos is a bold strategy. And Esco loses Will Fuller to the bye, leading to the Trade Bait lineup starring RoJo, Swift, and Mike Evans. But the biggest reason I'm making this pick is because Esco's matchups are absolutely BRUTAL other than Amari, who 1) is catching passes from a JMU alum, and 2) may lose touches to Lamb. If they played 100 times, Esco would win 99, but this is Barnard's Miracle On Ice.

Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 5-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Rams (-3) at Dolphins

Colts (-3) at Lions

Bills (-4) vs. Patriots

Steelers (+4) at Ravens

Broncos (+4) vs. Chargers

Last Week: 3-2-1
2020 Record: 19-18-2 (-1.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 6 Recap

Week 6 certainly was a weird one. Me and AGD combined for nearly 200 points in the Matchup of the Week but only had two RBs/WRs put up double digits, one of whom was Tim Patrick. Gutman had his long awaited breakout week, however he got no support at all from his shiny new QB. Levine moved to 6-0, with no player breaking 16, but his entire offensive lineup scoring between 11.04 and 15.9. And then we wrapped things up with an MNF blowout that somehow led to heartbreak for Weissbard relying on the Cardinals and victory to Esco relying on the Cowboys.

After all that, we had a blockbuster trade!

Trade Grade 10
Billy receives Le'Veon Bell, D'Ernest Johnson, Marquise Brown, and Corey Davis
Marco receives Christian McCaffrey
Honestly in shock on this one. Billy is perpetually hard to trade with because he has two studs and a bunch of flex-at-best players, so when those studs get injured, it makes things even more complicated. I'm sure he's been getting garbage offers since Week 2, but I figured with CMC on the mend, he wouldn't actually accept one of them. 

The goal with a CMC trade should have been to get two above average starters or three average starters. Several teams had the depth to provide this, so I'm not sure if they weren't making offers, or if Billy was holding out hope for a fast recovery, but somehow the trade he accepted gave him four more players that still wouldn't start for over half the league. Obviously the Saquon and CMC injuries tanked Billy's season, but he could have done better than this. Even if CMC doesn't play a down, this is a great bit of business from Marco.
Grades:
Billy: F
Marco: A-

Trade Grade 11
Alan receives Dalton Schultz
Levine receives Justin Herbert
Not the most consequential trade, but one that makes sense for both teams in the short term. Levine has slowed the QB trade requests for at least one week, without having to trade from his RB/WR depth. Alan was actually able to unload one of his QBs to fill a short term need, though once Goedert comes back he's back in the same place he was in during Weeks 1-4. Both of these players were free agent additions, so well done on both sides getting value from FAAB, and if Marco catches a stray as a part of this deal, all the better.
Grades:
Alan: B
Levine: B+

I'll go back to the standard Power Rankings format this week, before the starting the Trade Deadline and playoff push as we move into November.

Week 7 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

For a team named after their Tight End, it really continues to be the one glaring weakness on this team. Every single other starter on your team has been top 10 on a points per game basis, which is both extremely impressive and wildly unsustainable. Your big decision will be whether to trade an RB for a TE if/when Ekeler gets healthy, but until then, you can enjoy the ride and hope you avoid any injuries.

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

I assume you have only received more QB trade requests this week after seeing Dalton's abysmal MNF performance (guilty!). Your team's ceiling is not quite as high as Weissbard's, but you have a massive edge in high-upside depth, making a trade to upgrade QB or TE easier to absorb, along with injuries. I worry about sustainability here as well, with Ridley, Thielen and Robby all wildly outperforming their draft slots.

3. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

I feel like this team can be penciled in at 3rd or 4th every week barring injuries. I don't see them taking the top slot, but the core here is just so solid that their floor is 90+ each week. Not a lot to say beyond that.

4. Esco (Last Week: 7th)

Esco is basically the opposite of AGD. Ceiling is incredibly high, especially with RoJo finding the endzone and the Lions (possibly? maybe?) committing to getting Swift the ball. However, the bottom can fall out for any of these players other than Kamara in a given week. I would love to see an AGD/Esco playoff matchup with the Bucs and Lions playing on MNF. Esco could be up by 10 and lose, or down by 60 and win.

5. Kumpf (Last Week: 3rd)

It's embarrassing how much my team relies on Jonnu Smith, but here we are. At least Tannehill looks like a QB1 and maybe Henry Ruggs is a thing.

6. Gutman (Last Week: 5th)

I think last week was the start of Gutman's playoff run. Henry and Jefferson (The Founding Fathers might be a good team name, though not sure if Gronkowski and Dobbins signed the Declaration of Independence. Anywho!) won't approach 75 each week, but Rodgers will likely break 5 most of the time. Gut's roster is deep, and has some upside, as well as matchups with Billy, Nick, and Barnard still to come.

7. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

Not sure I've ever seen byes wreck a lineup more than Zacherman this week, and of course he's facing Barnard! At full strength, this team can compete in any given week, but the cracks in the Baltimore passing game, Davante's health, and the low ceiling of his RB situation puts him a half step behind the teams above him.

8. Marco (Last Week: 11th)

Marco moves up on the heels of a close victory over Weissbard, and the renewed energy this team has with CMC now sitting in the garage. If this team ever gets fully healthy, it will skyrocket up this list, but given that we're talking about the perpetually questionable Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Jamison Crowder trio, in addition to the questions surrounding McCaffrey, 8th seems like a safe spot for now.

9. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

This team still looks fine on paper (and a Mike Davis trade with Marco might make sense now that Billy essentially dropped McCaffrey) but any big time performances feel like an outlier as opposed to the norm. A fully healthy JuJu barely cracking 10ppg is a massive disappointment, and I'm chalking Drake's big night up to the abysmal Dallas D more than anything else.

10. Alan (Last Week: 9th)

Alan's season has pretty closely mirrored that of Josh Allen, and we're now left with even more questions surrounding Michael Thomas. I don't know that there's an obvious move to make here other than hoping Thomas gets healthy and someone emerges at RB2.

11. Barnard (Last Week: 12th)

It's truly shocking how mediocre or worse Barnard's team has been the last two seasons while maintaining a record above .500. He should be able to beat Zacherman this week without breaking 80 thanks to Mahomes, Julio, and Waller, but the rest of this team is a mess.

12. Bennett (Last Week: 8th)

While he tried to drive down the price of Boston Scott due to his own lacking FAAB dollars, Bennett really needed to win that auction with the Vikings on bye. Injuries have hit this team hard (that's what you get for basing your strategy around "get Eagles"), but it's not a completely lost cause like the two teams below it.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

On the bright side, CEH and AJ Brown both had big days last week, giving this team some cause for optimism. On the down side, you still didn't break 80 and Mostert got injured yet again. I'm not putting this league on "Nick Quitting Watch" just yet, but I can't say I'd blame him after the last two years. At least he gets to face Billy this week?

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

I don't know that there's a move you could have made to get yourself out of 14th, but I do know that the one you made didn't move the needle. The three active players you traded for are projected for 20.8 spots, which is likely what CMC will be projected for next week, while only taking one lineup slot. See you in 2021.

Matchup of the Week: Gutman vs. Weissbard

We're at the point in the season where record starts to matter a little bit more than team quality, so even I rank these as two of the top 6 teams in the league, there's a decent chance that they are both under .500 after this week. Both teams have a chance to take the division lead with wins, while losses would make the 6th seed (NiJo spot) look like the best path forward.

It kicks off with a bang Thursday night, as both defenses plus Freeman and Engram are playing. A defensive TD would be huge, and offensive TDs unexpected, so tune in for Giants/Eagles on NFL Network! 

Outside of that, these are two pretty even matchups. Gutman gets the benefit of McKinnon as a lead back, but loses Jefferson and Parker as flex options. Weissbard's biggest concern might be Diggs only playing the first half. While I expect a big bounce back game from Rodgers, the prospect of a shootout between the Cards and Seahawks benefits Weiss slightly more. Sorry Gut.

Pick: Weissbard
MotW Record: 4-2

Gambling Corner

Eagles (-4) vs. Giants

Saints (-6.5) vs. Panthers

Browns (-3) at Bengals

Bucs (-4) at Raiders

Chiefs (-7) at Broncos

49ers (+3) at Patriots

NFL Bets

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 16-16-1 (-2.23 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 5 Recap

As Weissbard has pointed out, the divisions are extremely stratified heading into Week 6. 

Levine's newly-wounded juggernaut leads a division that has all three teams with 4 or more wins. While his team now has a question mark at the previously dominant QB position, he's in prime position to make a trade to fill that hole if necessary. Esco and Bennett have two of the best starting lineups in the league, but an untimely injury would likely sink their playoff hopes. Barnard's team may have started its annual collapse a few weeks early, and Ajay really needs CMC to milk that injury to hold onto any hope.

AGD's division is up for grabs, with three of the top four squads according to this week's rankings, and an Alan team that has showed off its ceiling in the first month of the season. Nick's season is a huge disappointment, but he still in good position to play spoiler down the stretch, if not make a shocking playoff run.

That leaves us with Gutman's division, a true masterpiece in how to draft a division, especially from the four-team slot. Marco and Zacherman are probably unlucky to be below .500, but what's done is done there. Gutman's team hasn't done great so far, but he should benefit from his series of trades now that Rodgers is back from bye, and he's my pick to win this shitshow. And then there's Billy, who should finally change his draft approach after getting burned so badly this year, but I have a feeling will be more like this.

Trade Grade 9
Gutman receives Wayne Gallman
Weissbard receives Benny Snell
Typical handcuff trade, but Weissbard acquired the backup RB on a good offense and Gutman acquired the third string RB on a terrible offense. Doesn't move the needle too much either way, but I'll lean towards the 2018 champ.
Grades:
Gutman: C-
Weissbard: C+

Because the league is so stratified, I'm breaking the rankings this week into the Have's and the Have Not's. There's about a month until the Trade Deadline, so I'll be listing the biggest weakness that each of the Have's need to address, while listing the biggest area of strength that each of the Have Not's can deal from.

Week 6 Power Rankings

Have's

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)
Biggest Weakness: TE
This is a very complete team. There's not a clear RB1, but Ekeler has that upside assuming he comes back healthy. Outside that, the namesake of this team is ironically the only question mark. There are a few teams at the bottom of this list that can provide an upgrade, so if Weiss really wants to make a move for a chef's hat, an RB for TE trade might make sense all around.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

Biggest Weakness: QB

From biggest strength to biggest weakness in one week. Fantasy really is a fickle beast. Unfortunately for Levine, the QB trade dominos have pretty much already fallen unless Barnard wants to go nuclear. I don't hate Dalton but he's a big ginger question mark on an otherwise great and deep team.

3. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th)
Biggest Weakness: WR2
I'm sure I'll get shit for ending up third this week, but if you look at my roster, I'm above average at every position other than my second WR. Diontae is ideally a high-end flex player thrust into the role, but if he can stop getting hurt on his first touch of the game, he has WR2 upside. QB isn't ideal, but I can stream my way into a good matchup most weeks. Come at me AGD.

4. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

Biggest Weakness: Upside

As mentioned a couple of weeks back, the core of this team is set from top to bottom. Hunt will fall off a bit, assuming the Browns can get a Chubb, but he's still a fine RB2 behind Jacobs. What's really lacking is the guy that can put up 30+ in a given week, but if every starter is putting up 15+, that might be enough.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 5th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

Now that QB has been addressed, the glaring hole on this team is at RB behind Henry. Gut doesn't lack for options each week, but those options either need injuries ahead of them, for their teams to get better, or both, for that spot to be solved. Don't love Fant at TE either, but with Lock back the biggest issue is definitely in the RB slot.

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

I can pretty much copy and paste Gutman's blurb for Zacherman. Z actually has the edge at QB, WR1, and TE, but Henry and Gutman's WR depth gives him a very slight edge here to me. Z does have Gaskin, which I've begrudgingly moved into flex-worthy territory in my mind, but I still don't trust him on a weekly basis.

7. Esco (Last Week: 4th)

Biggest Weakness: RB2

Sense a theme here? Esco is similar to Gutman and Z as well, but doesn't have the QB upside that Z has, and his WRs are slightly worse than Gut across the board. He keeps trying to make RoJo a thing, and while TD regression is certainly coming, there's a reason everyone has gotten three trade requests with RoJo and John Brown for a better RB.

8. Bennett (Last Week: 9th)

Biggest Weakness: WR

I'm continually shocked at how much I like Bennett's team, but his WR situation does not inspire weekly confidence. OBJ has performed like a WR1 at times, and a flex option at other times, so I'm not sure what I would really consider him. To round out this roster, Bennett really needs a boring WR1 or high upside WR2 to pair with the mercurial Brown. I also low-key think TE is a weakness, but we all know Bennett won't trade Ertz for anyone.

Have Not's

9. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

Biggest Strength: QB

Alan's highs are high, but his lows are low. His placement here obviously makes him the most likely Have Not to move up the rankings, but to do so he may need to trade Josh Allen. I can't see anyone paying up for Stafford or Herbert, but Allen could get Levine to talk to Alan for the first time since 2015.

10. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

Biggest Strength: TE

Like Alan, a move up the rankings will likely involve trading Kittle for help elsewhere. Kittle is still recovering from injury, and has some serious QB questions, but he would be an upgrade for every team but AGD and Zacherman.

11. Marco (Last Week: 8th)

Biggest Strength: Depth

This team's performance yo-yo's from week to week because outside of Russ, there's no consistency. I'm not proposing that Marco gives up Russ yet, as he has depth that can be parlayed into a starter if someone has injury issues. If I'm Marco, I'm eyeing CMC as a potential way to move up these rankings.

12. Barnard (Last Week: 12th)

Biggest Strength: QB/TE

Barnard has a similar situation to Alan and Ajay, with players who provide clear upgrades at both QB and TE. Given how badly he has been raped in trades so far this year, I can't see him actually pulling the trigger, but trying to convince Bennett that Edelman is a WR1 is not going to lead to a playoff berth.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

Biggest Strength: Apathy/Spite

I still don't understand how Nick's team is 0-5. I prefer his roster to several teams above him, but his performance has not matched up with that. The Leveon/CEH situation is not ideal, but Nick would likely be best served to sit tight, continue not caring about fantasy, and play spoiler down the stretch.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Biggest Strength: CMC

McCaffrey and DJ Moore (and Ravens D/ST) are the only players on Billy's team that would be starting for pretty much any other team. If he can get three (or even two) starters out of a trade, I think it would be wise to do so, though I understand just chalking this year up as an L and not rocking the rest of the league.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Kumpf

This is a potentially huge matchup in the division race, and will either confirm ESPN's confidence in me, or send me down to the Have Not's. Byes are wreaking havoc with the lineups here, with AGD getting hit hard losing Jacobs and Lockett. That gives me a huge edge at the RB position, and while it's great to see a guy named La'Mical in a starting lineup, Zeke closing things out on MNF means AGD won't feel safe unless they're up 40. My biggest concern is the Chark/Golladay duo lighting up their opposing defenses and Watson outdueling Tannehill, but I don't think that will be enough to make up for the bye situation. 

Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 4-1

Gambling Corner

Bears (+1.5) at Panthers

Vikings (-3) vs. Falcons

Colts (-7) vs. Bengals

Titans (-3) vs. Texans

Bucs (+3) vs. Packers

NFL Bets

Last Week: 1-4
2020 Record: 13-14-1 (-2.58 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 4 Recap

Welp! My optimism about the season went up in smoke pretty quickly, and my team's fortunes with it. While the league seems to have a plan for the Titans/Steelers game last week, it's obviously not the last time that games will be affected, including potentially the Titans/Bills, Pats/Broncos, and Chiefs/Raiders games this week. If a Week 18 is added, fantasy likely won't be able to adjust, leaving some teams more screwed than others. Nothing we can really do about it, but the asterisk on this year is getting larger.

We obviously had a shit ton of trades this week, and even last weeks were already influential. If Levine and I didn't make our trade, I would have beaten Ajay and Levine would have still beaten Z but by only 0.06! Marco and Zacherman's trade didn't change anyone's fortunes this week, but Marco was lucky to get Singletary before Ekeler's injury, which would have given Z more leverage in their trade talks. The Mixon deal obviously stings for me, but I would bet that whoever starts for Atlanta outscores Mixon for the rest of the season. 

Let's see how this week's trades affect things (my thoughts as the trades came in):

Trade Grade 3
Barnard receives Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and Ryan Fitzpatrick
Gutman receives DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, and Sony Michel
Despite the names involved, this trade isn't all that exciting. Barnard was completely screwed at RB with Chubb hurt and Melvin about to lose touches, so his solution was to...add a goalline back who might be getting phased out of his own (admittedly high-powered) offense? Julio is nice (though potentially washed), but not a clear upgrade on DK, let alone losing Keenan, and now Edelman is a weekly starter which is less than ideal. I will say that his roster is more balanced now, but it's worse overall, so the trade was likely not worth it.

Speaking of balance! Gutman now has five startable WRs with Rob Woods, DK, Keenan, Golladay, and MVS (borderline but I like him), and his only startable RB might get a second game postponed. Gut's biggest need was QB, which this does not address, and he can literally not start all the best players on his roster. He got the better end of this deal from a value perspective, but he needs to make another move pronto.
Grades:
Barnard: D+
Gutman: C-

Trade Grade 5
AGD receives Kenny Golladay
Gutman receives Justin Jefferson and Jerick McKinnon
On cue! Going slightly out of order here, as I can't stop laughing at Gutman. Once again, I think he probably got the better value in the deal, with Jefferson a downgrade at WR (but one Gutman can afford), while adding an RB that is flex-worthy even when all the San Fran RBs are healthy (McKinnon has scored in every game so far). But who the hell is Gut going to start every week? Henry's team has COVID, the rest of his RBs are either splitting carries, on a terrible team, or both, and the WR situation is strong but he can still only start a max of three of them. Gut has taken over for Barnard as deepest team in the league, but it's by far the most confusing roster I've ever seen. And he still has jack shit at QB!

AGD is clearly making moves for some Chef's hats, as combining depth for an upgraded starting lineup is a textbook trading from strength move. I get a little worried about that strategy this year of all years, where lack of a bench can lead to Alan starting Tony Pollard and JD McKissic at RB, so if Hunt or Jacobs goes down (or their teams get COVID, which may have already happened), things get bleak quickly. But those are the risks you need to take if you want to join the Indians with some headwear on draft weekend, so I can't fault them too much.
Grades:
AGD: B+
Gutman: C

Trade Grade 4
Kumpf receives Steelers D/ST, A.J. Green
Zacherman receives Deebo Samuel, Hunter Renfrow
I'm guessing Kumpf gave up waiting on Deebo and wanted to get out before he inevitably gets hurt again and was happy to get out for a top 10 DST. If Deebo gets hurt I think the plan makes sense. However, Z was able to package a defense and Hunter Renfrow for two FLEX level WRs (Deebo, TY) who he can be comfortable in his starting lineup. Not a season altering trade for either side but could potentially swing a game or two.

ESPN loves Kumpf's team so much that by the end of the season they will be projected for 200 points per game but I'm not sure I see it. While the COVID factor is a wash right now, I think depth will be king by mid-season (if there is a mid-season) so I give the slight edge to Zacherman.

Grades:
Kumpf: B-
Zacherman: B

Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Gibson, and Tee Higgins
Weissbard receives Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Stefon Diggs
Lots of trades that are contingent on other trades this week, none moreso than this one. This is a home run for Weissbard, who gets a late season RB1 if Ekeler recovers, as well as a complete lockdown of the best WR trio in the league. He was also able to get a shocking amount of value for Rodgers, which corrects his biggest draft mistake and gives him most likely the best starting lineup in the league. There is risk if Ekeler ends up missing the season, but James Robinson has done a fine job so far and certainly won't tank this team.

As for Marco, this is obviously the precursor to a second move, though one that was not agreed to in advance, which is very risky. Gibson is fine, though he may have gotten the homer boost, but the WR situation here is begging for an upgrade. I'm grading this on it's own right now, and it's not great.
Grades:
Marco: D
Weissbard: A

Trade Grade 7
Weissbard receives Chris Thompson and Hunter Renfrow
Zacherman receives TY Hilton
Yawn. Weissbard gets a pseudo-handcuff and low end Flex receiver, while Zacherman is buying as low as possible on Hilton. I can only see one of these guys mattering, but highly doubt any of them do.
Grades:
Weissbard: C
Zacherman: B-

Trade Grade 8
Gutman receives Aaron Rodgers and Devante Parker
Marco receives Carson Wentz and Keenan Allen
The other shoe finally drops. I'm grading these trades individually, but obvious this move is the culmination of several other moves that both Gut and Marco have made. On the surface, I like this the most for Marco. He had to work harder than expected because he didn't have a deal agreed to before acquiring Rodgers, and trading QBs is extremely difficult in this league, but he certainly upgraded his WR1 in this deal. Gutman finally got his QB as well, so while the value likely wasn't as high, the upgrade from Wentz to Rodgers is more than worth the downgrade from Keenan to his old friend Devante. It took a very roundabout process, but I think they both ended up where they needed to.
Grades:
Gutman: B
Marco: B-

Overall, I think most of the teams involved here are in a better position than they started. Some (Weissbard) did better than others (Barnard), but no one really tanked their season with any of these moves. And when it comes to Weissbard and AGD, we may look back at this week as when they started their march towards Chef's hats. 

Or the season could be cancelled next week, in which case Billy is the real winner.

The top-heaviness of the league continued with new 30 point scorers Joe Fucking Mixon, Odell Beckham, George Kittle, Tom Brady, and something called a Robert Tonyan. This makes trades a little bit complicated, as most will include trading a stud for depth, as opposed to trying to find complementary rosters based on positions. That doesn't seem to be stifling trade talks so far, but it's something to monitor, especially if scoring calms down at some point.

Given all the trades this week, and my lack of an idea for a gimmick, I'm just going to list the rankings this week, with one exception:

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Levine (Last Week: 3rd)

2. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

3. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)

4. Esco (Last Week: 11th)
Esco finally gets his wish and moves up the most this week, but I'm still not sold on his squad being sustainable. Yes, he leads the league in points, but 32% of his offensive points have been from TDs. That's obviously the goal of the game, but it's also the least predictive of future success. Mike Evans isn't going to turn one of every three catches into a TD, Kamara will (probably) stop scoring twice per game, and Esco's lineup management hot streak will cool off at some point (The Will Fuller Rule). Ironically, trash-ass Ronald Jones is due for more TDs, so after this rant I expect him to light up the Bears and then Gutman will trade for him.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 8th)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

7. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

8. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

9. Bennett (Last Week: 4th)

10. Ajay (Last Week: 12th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 9th)

12. Barnard (Last Week: 7th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Levine

There are a few options here, as a lot of the better teams based on rosters (and Power Rankings) are behind the teams with better records. This matchup is between two teams with good records, but almost as far apart as possible in terms of roster. The implications are huge, with Levine potentially on his way to a perfect season, while a typical Barnard team is outproducing his talent before an obvious collapse. Barnard got a bit unlucky with Chubb getting injured, but he doubled down with a puzzling trade, and is now looking up at Alan in the rankings. His team is also shockingly reliant on players in games that might be postponed, so this could really be a blowout. The only way I see Levine losing is if Barnard's entire roster plays, Dak peppers Lamb with targets, and the Stidham/Rypien matchup produces fireworks. Let's not overthink this.

Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 3-1

Gambling Corner

Jaguars (+6) at Texans

Jets (+7.5) vs. Cardinals

Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Raiders

Seahawks (-7) vs. Vikings

NFL Bets

Last Week: 2-2-1
2020 Record: 12-10-1 (+0.37 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)