Week 3 Recap

We're now three weeks into the season and both the NFL and FALAFEL have three undefeated teams remaining. There is a team that was aggressively going all-in this season, without regard for long term team construction methods (Rams/Marco), a team led by Pat Mahomes and an impressive assortment of skill players (Chiefs/Zacherman), and a long time sadsack franchise who hasn't had any real success in decades but somehow hasn't lost yet (Dolphins/Weissbard). These teams are all pretty likely to move to 4-0 this week, as they take on three of the bottom 6 teams in the league.

Trade Grade 1
Kumpf receives Ezekiel Elliott, Andy Dalton, and Rishard Matthews
Marco receives Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, and Marvin Jones
I'm a week late on this one, and I'm partially grading myself, so I'll be brief. Marco gave up a stud flex option for a clear upgrade at QB and WR. This was inevitable since he blew his load on those RBs in the draft, but his weekly lineup is a hell of a lot more balanced now, Kirk's weird bed shitting last week aside. From my perspective, I upgraded by RB1, while giving up my backup QB and a WR2/Flex. It raises the ceiling of my team with only a slight hit to my depth. This is a win-win, but I'm giving myself the slightest of edges just because it's apparently possible that Kirk is terrible.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B+

Trade Grade 2
Alan receives Alfred Morris
Weissbard recieves Sammy Watkins
Yawn. Last week was likely Alf's best game of the season. Breida went down, and Jimmy played most of the game, neither of which is likely to happen moving forward. I guess he's an upgrade at RB2 from Tarik Cohen? But really neither of them are startable on real teams. Also, Alan how do you continually fuck up the formatting of your team name? For the surprisingly 3-0 Weissbard, this is just a swap of flex options. Sammy's ceiling is clearly higher, but given the format of this league, swapping a WR for a RB is usually a downgrade. You were always fucked if Gurley or Quon got hurt, but at least Alf provided some sort of insurance policy. I like this more for Alan simply because RB>WR, but that's not saying much.
Alan Grade: C+
Weissbard Grade: D+

Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs

As mentioned above, our three undefeated teams could be primed to double the 4-0 teams we've had since 2012, which is pretty incredible. On the flip side, things aren't looking great for the dregs of the league, as only 2 teams have ever made the playoffs with 0 or 1 win through four weeks. Of the 1-2 and 0-3 teams, Levine is the clear favorite to emerge given his point total, the division breakdown, and recent history, while the Ajay/BAM/Reap trio are in a lot of trouble already.

Team of the Week - Weissbard
Bennett's high score was built almost entirely on Matty Ice, and he didn't even need those points to beat Reap, so Weiss gets the trophy here. Other than a misstep on his TE dart throw, his lineup was nearly perfect, and he needed every one of those points to take down Levine. His Deshaun/Gurley/Barkley trio looks to be good for 60+ each week, so if his receivers can hold their own, he'll be competitive no matter what. That in and of itself is a huge upgrade for Fireball Dan, but the prospect of 4-0 is a real possibility against the desperate and discouraged Reap.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Leonard Fournette over TJ Yeldon
Lots of close games this week, but no really strategic choices actually swung matchups. So when all else fails, give it to spite. Yes, Barnard only started an injured Fournette because he was fighting a wicked appletini hangover. But given that this is likely his only win of the season, and over Ajay of all people, getting the W while starting an injured player only makes it more sweet. I would imagine that Ajay will be angry about this for years to come.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Fitztragic over Drew Brees
Yes, Gutman still beat me by 0.4. But it took until literally the last play of MNF, and with Brees he would have been able to breath easy by 4pm on Sunday. Levine, Ajay and myself all made less than ideal decisions that would have turned an L into a W, but all of them were defensible. Benching Brees indoors is unforgiveable.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Kumpf vs. Bennett
I hate putting myself in this section, but not only is this the only matchup between above .500 teams, but the winner will take the lead in our still unnamed division. It's also a matchup with a lot of drama. Matty Ice and Dalton facing each other, Agholor/Ertz vs. Ajayi, Buck Allen poaching TDs from Collins, and a lack of Cam/Funchess due to bye. The matchup may be dictated by TNF, because if Diggs and Kupp show up, it will be hard for Bennett to catch up, and then I have Kelce and Sanders for last licks. But if tonight hits the under, Bennett may be a surprising division leader through four weeks. These picks have been terrible for me so far, but I'm going to assume that means I'm due. I done #Kursed myself.
Pick: Kumpf
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-3

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17

NFL Bets
Bengals (+5) at Falcons - Win
Cowboys (-3) vs. Lions - Loss
Bucs (+3) at Bears - Loss
Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals - Push
Saints (-3) at Giants - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 11-7-2 (+2.15 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

For my NFL prop bets, Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards is looking grrrrreat.

NCAA Football Bets
NC State (-5) vs. Virginia - Win
Texas (-9) at Kansas State - Loss
Louisville (+7) vs. Florida State - Win
Washington State (+2) vs. Utah - Win
Duke (-5) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Penn State (+4) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-5
2018 Record: 17-18-1 (-3.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-9-4 (-5.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/26
Astros (+110) at Blue Jays - Loss
A's (-101) at Mariners - Win
9/27
Rays (+140) vs. Yankees - Loss
Last Week: 3-0
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

Week 2 Recap

Week 1 was the week of the skill players, but the QBs came back with a vengeance in Week 2. Pat Mahomes threw 6 TDs, FitzMagic is doing crazy shit and wasn't even owned in our league (despite Alan owning 3 unstartable QBs), and the entire league averaged a higher passer rating than Aaron Rodgers' career rating. This league does appear to have a pretty clear upper and lower class, but after two weeks, it's more likely that no one knows anything. I do feel like we're over due for a trade however, so hopefully we get some action soon.

Playoff Odds

After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams make the playoffs

After Week 3:
100% (5/5) of 3-0 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams make the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams make the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams make the playoffs

It's crazy that just three weeks in, we already have a 100% historical playoff lock, but that's how it's gone in the past. Marco, Weissbard, Z and myself will all feel pretty good about ourselves if we win this week. But even one loss is a night and day change, and the leaders can fall back to the pack very quickly.


Team of the Week - Zacherman
I know what you're all saying. "But Kumpf, your team came within a garbage time Seahawks TD from setting the all time scoring record!" I know, it was pretty impressive. "But Kumpf, you gave this to Zacherman last week, and this league HATES praising Zacherman!" I know, it's really unfortunate. "But Kumpf, both Alan and Barnard broke 80!" I know, but this section is not about charity. This is about greatness, and Zacherman's lineup not only would have beaten every team other than mine, but his fucking bench would have beaten half the teams in this league as well. That's dominance.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Chris Hogan over all of his other flex options
Gutman's team is unquestionably deep, but one of the issues with a deep team is the lineup decisions. After Hogan shat the bed Week 1, it would have been easy to look at Jalen Ramsey waiting last week and decide to roll with Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack, Allen Hurns, or Theo Riddick. Gut kept the faith, and it rewarded him.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Pretty much everything Ajay did
Ajay's team is slightly less deep, and a huge issue with a marginally deep team is that the lineup decisions really suck. Ajay could have started Rivers over Luck, Marshawn over Barber, or John Brown over Corey Davis, and any of those moves would have turned the L into a W. Instead, he's 0-2 and playing in a very depressing Matchup of the Week.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - Ajay vs. Barnard
It's a true loser leaves town match. To be fair, the playoff odds are basically identical at 0-2 and 0-3, but to be taken seriously, you gotta win one of your first three games. No one expected much out of Barnard's team, and he has responded by scoring 7 points more over two weeks than my team did in Week 2 alone. Ajay's luck hasn't been great so far, but he's been below average no matter how you slice it. If Fournette is healthy and LeVeon is still out, these starting rosters look pretty close on paper. Ajay's depth is unquestionably superior, but Barnard having a clear edge at multiple positions is pretty shocking. Having said that, Baby Hands is still chosing between multiple third string RBs or WRs for his flex, which is so, so bad. This pick has been a #Kurse so far this year, but betting against Barnard is a good way to turn things around.
Pick: Ajay
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-2

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/17

NFL Bets
Ravens (-5) vs. Broncos - Win
Redskins (+3) vs. Packers - Win
Eagles (-7) vs. Colts - Loss
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders - Win
Cardinals (+6) vs. Bears - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 9-5-1 (+2.44 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Washington State (+4) at USC - Win
Minnesota (+3) at Maryland - Loss
Boston College (-7) at Purdue - Loss
Oregon State (+6) vs. Arizona - Loss
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. South Carolina - Loss
Texas (+4) vs. TCU - Win
Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Texas Tech - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2018 Record: 13-16-1 (-4.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Burnley (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Win
Cardiff (+2) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018-19 Spread Record: 6-8-4 (-4.02 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Manchester United (-170) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-6 (-2.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (Pick) vs. PSG - Win
Schalke 04 (Pick) vs. Porto - Push
Red Star (+1) vs. Napoli - Win
Valencia (+0.5) vs. Juventus - Loss
Manchester United (-0.5) at Young Boys - Win
Bayern Munich (-1) at Benfica - Win
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-1-1 (+2.07 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (+230) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-1.00 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/20
Red Sox (+145) at Yankees - Win
9/22
Blue Jays (+130) vs. Rays - Win
Pirates (+110) vs. Brewers - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 31-43 (-4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

Week 1 Recap

Well that was a doozy of a Week 1. We had twenty non-QBs break 20 points (including James Conner dropping 30 on me as predicted), half the league broke 100, and my Matchup of the Week ended up as a thriller. Even with all those huge performances, I don't know that anything in our league was too surprising. Marco had an absurd week, but his roster setup puts performances like that on the table if everything breaks right. The three lowest scores were Barnard, Bennett and Alan, who had the three lowest draft grades. Everyone else was at least respectable, and that should make for a typically competitive FALAFEL season.

On to the usual recap format.

Playoff Odds

After Week 1:
50% of 1-0 teams make the playoffs
39% of 0-1 teams make the playoffs

After Week 2:
54% of 2-0 teams make the playoffs
50% of 1-1 teams make the playoffs
15% of 0-2 teams make the playoffs

It's obviously early, so these numbers are a long way from being relevant. However it is interesting that 1-0 teams and 1-1 teams have the same playoff odds. The only takeaway so far is that being 0-2 is a bad thing. Shocker, I know.

Team of the Week - Zacherman
Yes, Marco put up the most points. But I'm also not sure if it's sustainable given how much he relies on his RBs. In my mind, Z put up a more impressive performance. He took down Gut in the the Matchup of the Week, and did so without getting anything from an injured Doug Baldwin, a predictably boom/bust Jimmy Graham, and an extremely questionable start for Jeremy Hill. Mahomes and Hill looks like a truly terrifying connection, his RB stable should be solid enough, and that's without even considering how Nuk Hopkins can blow up. The Matchup of the Week may have been a preview of the Stevens Bowl.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Pat Mahomes over Big Ben
There's nothing I hate more than a Z-Ball lovefest, but we didn't have too many close matchups. Big Ben has historically struggled on the road, but after Hard Knocks I had zero faith in the Browns, and Mahomes was still a pretty big unknown going against a supposedly formidable Chargers D. I probably would have gone with Ben, and I would have been wrong.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Reap starting Mike Wallace over Tyler Lockett
This one hurt. The logic made sense on paper with Alshon ruled out, but the Foles factor would have scared me away, especially at the flex position. Getting a goose egg was obviously unexpected, but Lockett looked like a safer play in general, and would have won the week for Reap.

Biggest Matchup of the Week - BAM vs. Alan
As mentioned above, 0-2 is a historically tough hole to climb out of, so the pressure is already on for these division rivals. Sources say that BAM came close to acquiring Saquon this week, but the deal fell through at the last minute. Luckily, they picked up Philip Lindsay, giving them at least some upside at RB2, which is a hell of a lot more than Alan can say. If you told me a team was starting Nick Foles, Tarik Cohen and Sterling Shephard, I would assume they were ravaged by both bye weeks and injuries. The McKinnon injury obviously hurt, but this team was a mess even before that. Alan couldn't afford to not get Lindsay, and it will show this week.
Pick: BAM
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-1

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/10

NFL Bets
Panthers (+6) at Falcons - Loss
Lions (+6) at 49ers - Win
Patriots (-1) at Jaguars - Loss
Cowboys (-3) vs. Giants - Win
Seahawks (+4) at Bears - Loss
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 5-4-1 (+0.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Oklahoma (-18) at Iowa State - Loss
Georgia Tech (-4) at Pittsburgh - Loss
LSU (+10) at Auburn - Win
Duke (+6) at Baylor - Win
Wisconsin (-21) vs. BYU - Loss
Missouri (-6) at Purdue - Loss
Arizona State (-5) at San Diego State - Loss
Fresno State (-1) at UCLA - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 11-11-1 (-1.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Spurs (Pick) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Cardiff (+2) at Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 5-8-2 (-4.07 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+220) vs. Crystal Palace - Loss
Southampton (+120) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-5 (-1.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/12
Reds (+166) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Giants (+124) vs. Braves - Loss
Twins (+190) vs. Yankees - Win
9/13
Cardinals (+160) vs. Dodgers - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018 Record: 28-43 (-8.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

Week 1 Preview

Not a whole lot has happened since the draft, so this will be quick. The two biggest injuries were to Marqise Lee and Jerick McKinnon, and Weissbard somehow has the move of the year with a $0 Alf Morris pickup that he only got after an unclear tiebreak process with Marco. The most influential news since Baltimore is probably the LeVeon Bell holdout, which makes Ajay's $68 value look more and more like Barnard's $60 Fournette bid. I'm obviously happy about this news, but I'm also fully expecting John Conner to drop 30 on me this week.

Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Gutman vs. Zacherman
I don't have a ton of information to work with, so I'm going with the only divisional matchup this week. It does include two of my favorite drafts, so this should theoretically be a good matchup. To make it more entertaining, all of the current starters are playing Sunday, so it makes the return of football one long, exhausting day for both Gut and Z. I bet on Pitt this week, but Ben on the road is weirdly terrible, and that limits the ceiling for Team Z. He does get last licks with Howard and Graham, but I can see Brees to Thomas linking up for 50+, and that's going to be hard to overcome. My Stevens Bowl pick should start 1-0.
Pick: Gutman
2017 Matchup of the Week Record: 13-6

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/3

NFL Bets
Eagles (+1) vs. Falcons - Win
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans - Win
Steelers (-4) at Browns - Loss
Vikings (-6) vs. 49ers - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Broncos - Push
2018 Record: 3-1-1 (+1.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Props
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win Super Bowl (+1500)
Texans to win Super Bowl (+2000)
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards (+1400)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards (+4000)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (+265)

The Win Total bets have historically hit 55% of the time, so I'd expect to win around 8 of these. Don't super love the Packers or Titans picks, but I feel pretty confident on the rest.

NCAA Football Bets
Duke (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Nevada (+10) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Memphis (-6) at Navy - Loss
Iowa (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Virginia (+6) at Indiana - Win
California (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 8-6-1 (+0.86 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 2-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)

Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
9/7
Blue Jays (+190) vs. Indians - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018 Record: 27-40 (-7.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)