I also want to point out how great our current playoff qualification system is. We're obviously only four weeks in but here is where the current races stand:
- Weissbard Division Champ: 2 teams tied for the lead, 1 team a game back
- Levine Division Champ: 2 teams tied for the lead, 2 teams a game back
- Zacherman Division Champ: 1 team leading, 4 teams a game back
- Wild Cards: 1 team leading, 2 tied for second Wild Card, 2 a game back
- NiJo Rule: Hard to say right now, but appears to be a race between myself, Levine, and Billy, with one of us grabbing a Wild Card, one taking the NiJo spot, and one missing out.
The biggest wrench in the current standings right now is Barnard. He's undefeated, but 7th in scoring, and has been riding the Pats D/ST and Jordan Howard to his current record. I reluctantly moved him up the in the Power Rankings primarily because Melvin Gordon is back, but as his luck inevitably turns (though maybe not this week), and the Pats eventually play an actual quarterback (definitely not this week), I expect him to be under.500 the rest of the way.
(As an aside, I know the #Barndogs like their name and harmless dog barking memes, but I think there is a better comparison here. Through my domination of both the governance and media surrounding the league, as well as this gif being perfect for nearly all occasions, I freely admit to my Trumpian presence in FALAFEL. Barnard has often been my vocal, yet unsuccessful foil, hailing from an anonymous New England state. Given his random, but ultimately doomed, popularity push this year, I think that would make him FALAFEL's Bernie. Which is why, in a Trump-like move, I will now be referring to the #Barndogs as the #BarnieBros.)
(As an aside, I know the #Barndogs like their name and harmless dog barking memes, but I think there is a better comparison here. Through my domination of both the governance and media surrounding the league, as well as this gif being perfect for nearly all occasions, I freely admit to my Trumpian presence in FALAFEL. Barnard has often been my vocal, yet unsuccessful foil, hailing from an anonymous New England state. Given his random, but ultimately doomed, popularity push this year, I think that would make him FALAFEL's Bernie. Which is why, in a Trump-like move, I will now be referring to the #Barndogs as the #BarnieBros.)
Week 5 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Good News: Fat Lenny looked extremely good, and immediately contradicted my point last week about your RBs not carrying you.
Bad News: Your reliance on Houston's offense looked shaky, and while I don't expect that to be the new norm, Bill O'Brien doesn't exactly instill confidence.
2. Kumpf (Last Week: 3)
Good News: I was one dumb Godwin move away from 4-0 and the most points scored through four weeks.
Bad News: Everything I've done since I picked myself in the MotW has been wrong, so I may really be #Kursed.
3. Gutman (Last Week: 2)
Good News: Putting up 108 in a loss where the Cowboys got shut down still bodes well for long term success.
Bad News: That Tyron Smith injury puts a definite ceiling on Dak and Cooper's production.
4. Levine (Last Week: 5)
Good News: As bad as Jamaal Williams injury looked, it makes Aaron Jones a top 10 RB.
Bad News: Your other RB position is an impossible decision each week.
5. Marco (Last Week: 6)
Good News: Record aside, you have an extremely deep team that can put up points if you're capable of picking the correct starting lineup.
Bad News: Thus far you have proven incapable of picking the correct starting lineup.
6. Billy (Last Week: 4)
Good News: Kenny Stills injury should make Will Fuller a startable WR, something you previously were lacking.
Bad News: The ceiling that this team appeared to have after the draft doesn't exist anymore, through mismanagement or underperformance.
7. Nick (Last Week: 8)
Good News: Gurley's struggles on the ground have almost directly correlated with Kupp's emergence as a top 10 WR.
Bad News: Danny Dimes threw more interceptions than completions over 10 yards last week, and faces a real defense for the first time this week.
8. Alan (Last Week: 7)
Good News: Ekeler has done enough to carve out a startable role even with Melvin back in the lineup.
Bad News: Despite your point total and Thielen's disappointing week, Adams' injury further shows how confusing that trade was (and while I unquestionably overbid on Geronimo, why would you not try to pick him up? To keep Jason Witten when you already have Kelce?)
9. Esco (Last Week: 9)
Good News: I'm ranking you this high because I still see a solid roster despite all performances telling me this team is probably not good.
Bad News: This team is probably not good.
10. Weissbard (Last Week: 10)
Good News: Marlon Mack's injury doesn't appear to be that bad.
Bad News: He only outscored Saquon by 3.9 and was outscored by Gallman by 20.
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 12)
Good News: You picked a good time to have a Murphy's Law week, as no one was taking down Alan last week.
Bad News: I'm not sure how you can improve (other than trading Mahomes) outside of your team just getting healthier and playing better.
12. Bennett (Last Week: 11)
Good News: Even with all of your injuries, you can still put together a mostly decent starting lineup.
Bad News: You're one lucky AB trade away from being last on this list by a long shot (and wasting a roster spot on Jay Ajayi given your injury situation is one of the more confusing things I've ever seen).
13. Barnard (Last Week: 14)
Good News: I said that if your offense broke 80, I would move you out of the bottom, and I'm a man of my word.
Bad News: It's very possible that Melvin, Sony, and Howard are backups on their own teams within the next month.
14. Ajay (Last Week: 13)
Good News: You're not going 0-13!
Bad News: You're still scoring more than 12 points per game less than the second lowest scorer (Esco), and a whopping 45 points per game less than AGD.
Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Nick
You are what your record says you are, and this puts two division leaders up against each other. It also has some fun scheduling as Cooks goes up against Gurley/Kupp on TNF. If Barnard can stay within 10 after that game, he has a good chance to stay undefeated. Barnard will also have to make a potentially tough decision on TY, who plays on SNF along with Brisket and Ebron, giving him last licks as well. In between, Nick is curiously reliant on the Giants while Barnard gets the Pats D vs. the Skins and apparent stud Jordan Howard against the Jets. If Ridley can get back on track at the expense of Freeman, Nick will be in good shape, but the matchups and schedule somehow favor Barnard. If he can overcome the #Kurse, I'll start to actually believe the #BarnieBros.
Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/30
NFL Bets
Rams (+1.5) at Seahawks - Win
Giants (+6) vs. Vikings - Loss
Saints (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Broncos - Loss
49ers (-3) vs. Browns - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2019 Record: 14-12 (-0.05 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
After 4 weeks, my Win Total bets look decent:
The Good
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5
Lions over 6.5
Colts over 6.5
Giants over 6
Redskins under 6.5
The Bad
Bears under 9
Packers under 9.5
Eagles over 9.5
The Ugly
Bengals over 6
49ers under 8
NCAAF Bets
Utah State (+28) at LSU - Loss
Arizona (+4) at Colorado - Win
Tennessee (+25) vs. Georgia - Loss
Duke (-5) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Last Week: 6-1
2019 Record: 22-16-1 (+3.22 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Norwich - Win
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at West Ham - Win
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 14-10-8 (+0.98 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Tottenham (-105) at Brighton - Loss
Liverpool (-220) vs. Leicester City - Win
Watford (+115) vs. Sheffield - Loss
Last Week: 3-1
2019-20 Record: 9-6 (-0.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Real Madrid (-1.5) vs. Club Brugge - Loss
Tottenham (+0.5) vs. Bayern Munich - Loss
Red Star (Pick) vs. Olympiacos - Win
Genk (+1.5) vs. Napoli - Win
Barcelona (-1) vs. Inter Milan - Push
Valencia (Pick) vs. Ajax - Loss
Lyon (+1) at RB Leipzig - Win
2019-20 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Zenit (+130) vs. Benfica - Win
2019-20 Record: 1-0 (+1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
MLB Bets
Rays (+245) at Astros
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
MLB Win Total bets ended at 7-4.
MLS Spread Bets
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)
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