Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/29

NFL Super Bowl Bet
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 52nd out of 20,468: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Eagles (+5) vs. Patriots - Win
Last Week: 1-1 (Hit on a big Pats moneyline bet at 14-3 as well)
2017 Record: 50-35-1 (+8.59 units)

Super Bowl Props
Tom Brady to win Regular Season and Super Bowl MVP (Even) - Loss
James White to win Super Bowl MVP (+4000) - Loss
Jay Ajayi to win Super Bowl MVP (+1800) - Loss
James White to score first TD (+1400) - Loss
LeGarrette Blount to score first TD (+1000) - Loss
Total Field Goals under 3.5 (-115) - Loss
Jake Elliott under 8.5 points scored (-115) - Loss
Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (Even) - Loss
Nick Foles over 0.5 interceptions (-140) - Win
Alshon Jeffrey most receiving yards (+500) - Loss
Dion Lewis under 4 receptions (-105) - Win
Dion Lewis under 29.5 receiving yards (-115) - Win
Chris Hogan under 3 receptions (-115) - Loss
Chris Hogan under 37.5 receiving yards (-115) - Loss
Dion Lewis over 54.5 rushing yards (-105) - Loss
Roughing the Passer will be called (100) - Loss

Super Bowl Squares
Eagles - 7, Patriots - 7 - Loss
Eagles - 3, Patriots - 5 - Loss
Eagles - 4, Patriots - 5 - Loss
Eagles - 2, Patriots - 6 - Loss
Eagles - 6, Patriots - 0 - Loss

NBA Bets
2/3
Magic (+5) vs. Wizards - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2017-18 Record: 23-25-4 (-5.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

For NBA Win Totals, I'm on pace for 19/30 after February, and for the 20 bets I actually made, I'm on pace for 13/20.

NCAAB Bets
1/30
Clemson (+2) vs. North Carolina - Win
Xavier (-4) at St. John's - Win
Minnesota (+5) at Iowa - Loss
Kentucky (-9) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
1/31
Syracuse (Pick) at Georgia Tech - Loss
2/3
Michigan State (-8) at Indiana - Loss
Last Week: 4-4
2017-18 Record: 13-27-3 (-15.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Huddersfield (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) at Newcastle - Win
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Win
Stoke City (+2) at Bournemouth - Win
Watford (+1) vs. Chelsea - Win
Last Week: 1-0-1
2017-18 Spread Record: 18-19-6 (-4.97 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
West Ham (+200) vs. Crystal Palace - Loss
Watford (+235) at Stoke City - Loss
Tottenham (+125) vs. Manchester United - Win
West Ham (+240) at Brighton - Loss
West Brom (+170) vs. Southampton - Loss
Crystal Palace (Even) vs. Newcastle - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2017-18 Moneyline Record: 6-17 (-9.31 units)

Monday, January 22, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/22

NFL Super Bowl Bet
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 52nd out of 20,468: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/

Last Week: 1-1 (Hit on a big Pats moneyline bet at 14-3 as well)
2017 Record: 49-35-1 (+7.79 units)


NBA Bets
1/24
76ers (-5) vs. Bulls - Win
Last Week: 2-1
2017-18 Record: 23-24-4 (-4.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

NCAAB Bets
1/22
Maryland (-1) at Indiana - Loss
North Carolina (-4) at Virginia Tech - Loss
1/23
Arkansas (+2) at Georgia - Win
Kansas (+2) at Oklahoma - Loss
Alabama (+3) at Mississippi - Loss
Creighton (-2) at St. John's - Win
Kentucky (-7) vs. Mississippi State - Win
1/24
Florida State (-10) vs. Georgia Tech - Win
Last Week: 1-5-1
2017-18 Record: 11-23-3 (-13.5 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 1-0-1
2017-18 Spread Record: 13-17-5 (-6.75 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1


2017-18 Moneyline Record: 5-11 (-5.56 units)

Monday, January 15, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/15

NFL Conference Championship Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 64th out of 20,367: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Patriots (-9) vs. Jaguars - Loss
Eagles (+4) vs. Vikings - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 48-34-1 (+7.99 units)


NBA Bets
1/16
Magic (+9) vs. Timberwolves - Win
1/17
Warriors (-8) at Bulls - Loss
1/20
Rockets (+5) vs. Warriors - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2017-18 Record: 22-24-4 (-4.87 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

NCAAB Bets
1/16
Purdue (-14) vs. Wisconsin - Win
Kentucky (-2) at South Carolina - Loss
1/17
Xavier (-11) vs. St. John's - Loss
Arizona State (-3) at Stanford - Loss
1/20
North Carolina (-14) vs. Georgia Tech - Push
Arizona (-5) at Stanford - Loss
TCU (+3) at Kansas State - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2017-18 Record: 7-19-3 (-13.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+1) vs. Manchester United - Push
Southampton (+1) vs. Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2017-18 Spread Record: 13-17-5 (-6.75 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Chelsea (-170) vs. Brighton - Win
Bournemouth (+280) at West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2017-18 Moneyline Record: 5-11 (-5.56 units)

Monday, January 8, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/8

NFL Divisional Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 103rd out of 20,116: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Eagles (+3) vs. Falcons
Patriots (-14) vs. Titans
Steelers (-7) vs. Jaguars
Vikings (-4) vs. Saints
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 45-33-1 (+6.2 units)

NCAA Football Final
Last Week: 1-0 (Plus an Alabama moneyline win at +270 at halftime)
2017 Record: 51-40-8 (+3.94 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
1/8
Timberwolves (+1) vs. Cavaliers - Win
Pistons (+6) at Pelicans - Win
2017-18 Record: 20-23-4 (-5.5 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

NCAAB Bets
1/9
Virginia (-9) vs. Syracuse - Loss
2017-18 Record: 6-14-2 (-8.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Everton (+1.5) vs. Tottenham
Liverpool (+0.5) vs. Manchester City
2017-18 Spread Record: 12-17-5 (-7.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Arsenal (-145) at Bournemouth
2017-18 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-4.15 units)

Friday, January 5, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/1

For the offseason, instead of just listing gambling wins and losses, I'll include some profit/loss numbers in terms of units. I bet different amounts depending on the sport, so using units makes it easier to see how much I am making or losing. For example, I bet $25 on each NFL bet, and I'm currently up $162.74 for the season. In terms of units, that's 162.74/25 = 6.5 units of profit. So if you bet $100 on each of my bets, you would be up $650. Some sports will look a lot better than others.

NFL Wild Card Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 110th out of 19,911: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
For the playoffs, I'll be betting on every game, even if I don't like the lines, and I fucking hate the lines this week.
Titans (+9) at Chiefs
Falcons (+6) at Rams
Jaguars (-9) vs. Bills
Saints (-6) vs. Panthers
Last Week: 1-3
2017 Record: 43-31-1 (+6.5 units)

For NFL Win Totals, I finished 8-3 on the bets I actually made. My system would have gone 20-11 if I made every bet, but I only made the ones I was most confident in. As for my other props, I lost Isaiah Crowell for rushing title, and I'm chalking up Cam for MVP and Fournette for OROY as losses as well. I still have Carolina at 28:1 and Pittsburgh at 10:1 for the Super Bowl.

NCAA Championship Bet
Georgia (+5) vs. Alabama
Last Week: 7-6-1
2017 Record: 50-40-8 (+3.94 units)

NBA Bets
Win Totals are currently on pace to win 16/30, well below historical average. Game bets have been even worse, but I'll include them as I make them starting next week.
2017-18 Record: 18-23-4
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

NCAAB Bets
Same as NBA, terrible so far but I'll include bets as I make them starting next week.
2017-18 Record: 6-13-2
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets
I've been abjectly terrible at betting on soccer this season, but I'm trying new things to see what works. Because goals are relatively infrequent, I do a mix of spread and moneyline bets each week. 
2017-18 Spread Record: 12-17-5 (-7.15 units)
2017-18 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-4.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)