Podcast 2016.10 - Stevens Bowl Preview

The Stevens Bowl is too big of an event for a standard Dr. Z breakdown, so I'm coming in hot with a full multimedia experience. Before we get to the podcast, as is tradition...

ALAN! BILLY! MAYBE MARSHALL! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL!

Now on to the podcast, where I make my Stevens Bowl prediction:



Zacherman and Levine also face off in the Rogers Bowl, which gives the winner a small cash prize but not much else. I won't give them the full breakdown, but I will pick Zacherman in a close one.

Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 3-1
Overall Record: 5-10

Playoff Preview - Semi-finals

Last week I said that Levine had a slight edge over me at the runningback position thanks to Leveon Bell. Prior to the Pats D playing on MNF, Leveon had a slight edge on my entire team. So that went well. The average margin of victory in the first round was over 40 points, so hopefully the semi-finals are a little bit closer. There's a Stevens Bowl bid on the line for fuck's sake. On to the breakdown...

1. Alan vs. 5. Zacherman

Quarterbacks
These teams have two of the top QBs in the league, but are going up against two of the best pass defenses in the league, both on the road. Luck is also a bit banged up and has a terrible offensive line, so the odds of him making it through the game are considerably less than 100%. I hate picking Brady, but if the Pats win, it moves them closer to home field advantage and moves Denver closer to missing the playoffs. Hard to bet against him there.
Edge: Zacherman

Runningbacks
Alan has had a pretty well-rounded team this year, but if he wins his second title, it will be on the back of Shady McCoy. He has the potential to put up 30+ this week, and leads the way here. Murray has had a solid season as well, but Derrick Henry is starting to steal some carries, and the matchup isn't as juicy as Shady's. The wild card is Kenneth Farrow. He may sound like an accountant, but he could swing this matchup if Gordon is officially out. If Gordon does play, Alan's flex is a clear weakness, but it doesn't sound good for Melvin right now.
Big Edge: Alan

Wide Receivers
This is where Z needs to make up his ground. Allen Robinson and Michael Crabtree have been fine, but have relatively low ceilings. If the cards break correctly, Z's trio could all have huge days. If Sammy catches a long TD, that could mean one less drive for Shady, and more carries for Gillislee in a blowout, so that could be hugely important. Against Cleveland, anything can happen.
Edge: Zacherman

Tight Ends
Cameron Brate has had a very solid season, but he's been extremely TD-dependent. Against Dallas that might not be a bad thing, but still he's no Greg Olsen.
Edge: Alan

Defense/Special Teams
Zacherman's weird loyalty to Carolina's defense has been baffling at times, but it paid off last week. This week they're going up against a top offense in Washington, so I still don't really understand his logic. Alan is rocking the Fins D against Bryce Petty and the Jets, making this our most one-sided positional matchup.
Big Edge: Alan

Overall
There is no one area where Z has a big edge, but he showed last week that his high ceiling can carry him. That said, Alan has probably the highest floor in the league and is unlikely to put up less than 75. I've been on the Z train since the draft, but it's hard to go against the Masandiassance.
Winner: Alan


2. BAM vs. 3 Levine

Quarterbacks
We are gonna see some points put up here. BAM has been riding Matty Ice all season, and gets a juicy matchup with the Niners who are tanking hard. Levine has Mariota looking for a bounceback against a Chiefs D that has been a little bipolar this year. Ryan's clearly the stud here, but if it turns into a blowout early, I could see him sitting out the second half. Mariota will need to play hard the entire game, and his legs could be the difference here. I expect 20+ from each of these guys, but I think Levine has a better chance of coming out on top.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningbacks
Another amazing matchup here in Zeke vs. Bell. Impossible to pick between those two, so this position will be decided elsewhere. Jordan Howard has been an undercover reason why BAM is here right now, and he has Spencer Ware waiting the in the flex. Levine is starting Dion Lewis, who has scored 16.4 points on the season. I hate to pick against Leveon after he murdered me last week, but this shouldn't be close.
Big Edge: BAM

Wide Receivers
BAM has ODB against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Even with Levine rolling out three solid WRs, I might pick Beckham over the three of them combined. Having Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky-solid WR2, gives BAM the edge here too.
Edge: BAM

Tight Ends
C.J. Fiedorowicz against the Jags and Charles Clay against the Browns. Moving on...
Edge: Even

Defense/Special Teams
Levine continues his streaming against the Browns with Buffalo, while BAM does some streaming of his own against the Niners. With Rex clinging desperately to his job, I expect a ton of blitzing leading to sacks and turnovers. Higher ceiling than a mediocre Atlanta D.
Edge: Levine

Overall
I continue to have no idea how Levine made it this far, but he's had an absurd run of luck in terms of matchups (even if he didn't need it like last week). That ends this week, with BAM looking to make their first Stevens Bowl as a duo.
Winner: BAM

Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 1-1
Overall Record: 3-10

Playoff Preview - First Round

Now that the contenders have been separated from the pretenders, it's time to look at the matchups that will determine who gets the Chef's Coat, asterisk or otherwise. It's been a couple of years, but I'm returning to the tried and true Dr. Z breakdown format.


3. Levine vs. 6. Kumpf

Quarterbacks
Levine's trade for Mariota went relatively under the radar, but went a long way toward keeping him out of the vulnerable 6th seed. He's also coming off an absurdly late bye, giving him two weeks to prepare for his opponent. Unfortunately, said opponent is the Broncos, who eat opposing QBs for breakfast. On my side, I heavily debated starting Eli in primetime instead of Carr on the road on a short week. But as the Giants fans in this league can attest, having Eli crush your dreams is a tough way to go out. If Mariota breaks 12 against Denver, Levine should be pleased.
Edge: Kumpf

Runningbacks
Bell is he clear stud here, and his performance in Buffalo will go a long towards determining the outcome of this matchup. The rest of the RBs will be interesting as my guys have better matchups and bigger roles, but Dion Lewis looms as the X-Factor. If Belichick game plans Lewis as his Gronk replacement, I could easily see a 4 rushing yard, 122 receiving yard performance. I'll hedge with the slight edge pick.
Slight Edge: Levine

Wide Receivers
Another position where the New England game plan may sway the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell has looked good the last three weeks, and he could easily have a big day if Bill so chooses. The rest of the guys are a little bit more predictable, but injuries will play a role here. Julio is dealing with turf toe, and while I'm starting him if he's playing, a goose egg in the playoffs would be pretty fitting karma-wise. On the Levine side, Michael Thomas is banged up, which could mean good things for Cooks. Hard to pick a clear winner here.
Edge: Even

Tight End
Yes, the Jets just allowed Dwayne Allen to go wild against them. But Vance McDonald sounds like a magician who performs in Vegas. I also have Delanie catching passes from Mariota, against a Denver D that is way worse against TEs than WRs.
Edge: Kumpf

Defense/Special  Teams
Not a lot of great streaming options for me this week, so I'm rolling out the Pats for the fourth straight week against a Ravens team that put up 38 last week. Levine has a rejuvenated Cincy team against the Browns.
Big Edge: Levine

Overall
This one will likely be decided early. If KC shuts down Oakland tonight, and I end up with less than 25 from Carr and Amari, I think Bell and Co. will carry Levine to an easy victory. If I get close to 40? I think I'm in good shape. This will be close either way, but I think Levine's MNF guys and Julio's injury will end up dooming me.
Winner: Levine


4. Zacherman vs. 5. Gutman
Note: Gutman has intermittent access to his lineup. He made the moves to pickup and start Detroit's D, and is voluntarily choosing to start Ted Ginn Jr. over Diggs. If Ingram doesn't play, I'll be subbing in Hightower, but otherwise these decisions are his.

Quarterbacks
Brady vs. Rivers is a heavyweight showdown. It's really hard to pick against Brady in primetime, but going up against a pretty good Baltimore D, and without Gronk, leaves the door open here. Rivers gets a Panthers D that got lit the fuck up last week. I think they play better this week, but Rivers gonna get his.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Runningbacks
DeMarco Murray should be able to do at least some damage against Denver (the Tenn/Den game has a weirdly large impact on these matchups), but Terrance West is slowly getting phased out of Baltimore's already terrible running game. Whoever starts for New Orleans has a 20-point ceiling, which is always nice, and David Johnson has pretty much a 20-point floor. This one should be pretty one-sided.
Big Edge: Gutman

Wide Receivers
Jordy gets a Seattle pass defense sans Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep ball more than usual. Combine that with boom/bust Mike Wallace and sneaky great pickup Sammy Watkins, and Z could get 50 from his WRs. He'll probably need it this week, even if I don't love Gut's receivers. Thomas and Hilton should average about 10 each, but I can't say I ever recommend putting your season in Ted Ginn's shaky hands.
Edge: Zacherman

Tight End
If things don't work out for Z this season, he'll look back and say what if? What if he didn't trade Dez for Arian Foster? What if he didn't blow Week 1 with terrible roster management and get a bye? But the biggest what if is What if Gronk was healthy? Alas, he's not, leaving us with Jared Cook vs. Make Cameron Brate Again. Z still gets the nod here, but it's not as big of an edge as it would have been.
Edge: Zacherman

Defense/Special Teams
Gutman is banking that even a bottom-rung defense can put up points against Matt Barkley. Not a terrible bet to make, but also leaves him somewhat vulnerable for a goose egg. Zacherman has the uncomfortable situation of his defense facing one of his offensive weapons. I don't think this position has a huge effect on the outcome here, but I'll go with the team playing at home against Barkley.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Overall
I've been a fan of Z's team since preseason. Even after his ill-fated Arian trade, I thought his ceiling was among the highest in the league. But the Gronk injury is one step too far, and I think his road ends here. Gutman has better matchups, and with a win would get Alshon back for the semi-finals against Alan. Bless the rains.
Winner: Gutman

Playoff Picture

As many of us descend upon our nation's capital this weekend, one thing is on everyone's mind: Playoffs. Rather than break down playoff odds, or try to project what will happen in the future, here is a breakdown of each team's situation heading into Week 13. The order is what would happen if the playoffs started today, including NiJo and Division rules.

Team-by-Team Playoff Picture

Technically no team is officially eliminated because of the NiJo Rule, but for these purposes I'm going to assume that no team can make up more than 50 points in a given week.

14. Bruno - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. It was one thing to miss the draft and fall prey to an unfortunate ESPN auto-drafting strategy. It was another to get repeatedly trade raped by others in the league without so much as consulting current or former league members on said trades. But not starting Devonta Freeman over Cameron Artis-Payne and throwing Barnard a life raft is unforgiveable. The asterisk now applies to Gutman, myself and Barnard.

13. Esco -  Eliminated from Playoff Contention. Don't look now, but Esco has missed the playoffs three years in a row, and will finish with 9+ losses in two of them. This dry spell came on the heels of back-to-back Stevens Bowl appearances, and one Chef's Coat, but a once-proud franchise is now in a state of disarray.

12. AGD - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. Speaking of once-proud franchises, AGD came of back-to-back Stevens Bowl appearances themselves, and will now fall just about as far as you can. Prior to the season AGD mentioned the possibility of splitting up if they had another deep playoff run. Obviously that didn't happen, but maybe the stress of a potential 10-loss season will have the same effect. #TroubleInParadise?

11. Weissbard - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. It was fun while it lasted. After a mediocre-at-best draft, followed immediately by a string of injuries, Weiss made a nice go of it to stay relevant until Thanksgiving. Earlier in the season it looked like he was headed towards the Long Line, but he managed to avoid that and then organize the First Annual FALAFEL Secret Santa. Things are looking up for Weiss.

10. Ajay - NiJo Rule Eligible. He can't make it in based on his record, but this is the first team that can potentially make up 50 points on 3rd place in scoring. All Ajay needs to care about is putting up as many points as possible and then rooting against pretty much everyone else, namely me, BAM, Gutman, Bennett, and Marco. So you're telling him there's a chance?

9. Marco - Still alive. From a record perspective, Marco needs to beat Levine and then hope for the best. He needs to root for Esco and Bennett, and also make up points on Zacherman, Gutman and whoever loses the Kumpf/Barnard bloodbath. From a NiJo perspective, Marco is in pretty much the same situation as Ajay, but with 5 less points to make up. The Division Champion path is still a possibility as well, but that would involve Marco winning, Barnard losing, and the NiJo rule not being enacted. Marco's done an underrated job of recovering from a slow start, and trade raped the shit out of Z to get Dez, so we should all be thankful for his presence in the league. As we've seen, it could be a lot worse.

8. Bennett - Still alive. A huge Week 12 puts the BMO within shouting distance of a playoff spot, with multiple paths towards the postseason. From a record perspective, it's similar to Marco. Bennett needs to beat Gutman and root for Esco, as well as make up points on Zacherman, Gutman, Kumpf/Barnard. Bennett also has an 18 point lead on Marco, so he's in better position to be in play from a NiJo perspective, especially given his team's propensity for boom/bust weeks. No division title is in play, but I think Bennett will be relevant throughout most of Sunday.

7. Gutman - Likely controls his own destiny. An 8-5 team has never missed the playoffs, but given the weirdness of this year and our convoluted playoff rules, Gutman could potentially be the first (so could Barnard, me and Z). If Gutman beats Bennett, he's likely in play for a top 3 scoring team, which would protect him. However, if he is not top 3 in scoring and ends up in 6th, he would be vulnerable to both NiJo rule from a handful of teams, as well as the Division Champ rule from Barnard or Marco. Gutman really just needs to root for himself to win and put up points, but he should also root against me, as Barnard beating me and/or me falling out of top 3 in scoring would both be beneficial for him.

6. Barnard - Likely controls his own destiny. Barnard is in a similar position to Gutman. If he wins, he clinches his division and can only miss the playoffs by virtue of the NiJo Rule. The most likely candidate for that would be me, but if Barnard beats me, there's a good chance that I'm no longer top three in scoring. Bennett is the other candidate here, and given that he's the only team to be NiJoed out of the playoffs before, it would certainly be poetic. If Barnard loses, he could still make the playoffs if he wins the division over Marco, and a non-top three scorer (likely Gutman or me), is in sixth. Barnard should obviously root for himself, but also for Levine and Gutman, and definitely against Bennett.

5. Kumpf - Likely control my own destiny. I'm essentially in the same spot as Gutman and Barnard, just with more points banked and minimal shot at the division. I could shockingly end up anywhere from the 2 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. I just know I need to root against Alan and BAM for the bye, and then anyone close to me in points. I could win and miss the playoffs or lose and make the playoffs, and that lack of certainty has me extremely stressed out.

4. Zacherman - Likely controls his own destiny. Same situation as me, just with 4 more points and no shot at the division. The biggest factor for Z is that Tennessee and Cleveland are on the bye, and with them, his only semblance of a RB corps. If Z loses, he's a potential NiJo candidate, but given how the rest of the league has gained ground in the last two weeks, I wouldn't feel too safe. Z should be as stressed out as I am.

3. BAM - Control their own destiny. Finally some certainty! If BAM wins, they have no shot of ending up in the vulnerable sixth seed, and would make the playoffs as a top three seed. To get the bye, they need to win and have Levine lose, or have Alan lose, or have Alan win and make up 31 points on him. If they lose, they're still pretty safe. They need to hope that Barnard beats me, so ensure they don't end up in sixth, but even if I beat Barnard, the most likely NiJo threat would be in the playoffs already. This is the first team that can breathe somewhat easily.

2. Alan - Controls his own destiny. Alan can also breathe pretty easily, as it would be an absolute shock if he ended up falling to sixth and getting NiJoed with a loss. If he wins, he's in and likely has a bye, and if he loses, it would take absolute chaos for him to miss the playoffs. The Masandiassance lives on.

1. Levine - Clinched the playoffs. If Levine wins, he clinches the one seed and a bye. If he loses, he can't fall farther than third, but that bye is pretty important for our 4th lowest scoring team. Outside of that, he should just be rooting for the more dangerous teams to lose to make his absurdly easy schedule continue in the playoffs.

My head is spinning so there could be some inaccuracies in there, but here are the basic facts:

• Weissbard, Esco, AGD and Bruno are eliminated.
• Ajay can only get in via the NiJo rule, but it would take a miracle. He needs to put up a shit ton of points and hope for the best.
• Marco and Bennett have multiple paths to the playoffs, but none is very likely. They both need to win, root for for each other (but not too much) and Esco, and hope things break their way.
• Gutman, Barnard, myself and Z likely just need to win, but we also probably need to put up enough points to stay out of 6th. A loss wouldn't officially eliminate any of us, but those situations aren't ideal.
• BAM and Alan control their own destiny, and neither one is really in much danger of missing out.
• Levine is sitting pretty but still needs to win for the bye.

Everyone still has something to play for, whether that's a playoff berth, a bye, avoiding shots at next year's draft, or plain old spite. Best of luck to everyone but Barnard. See some of you on Friday.

Week 11 Recap

The byes may be over, but this league has a long way to go before we know who's making the playoffs. Levine improbably takes over first place with a dominating performance, while Barnard, Alan and I all suffer injuries that may hurt our once-strong chances. We can finally say with certainty that AGD, Esco and Bruno have been eliminated, but with two short weeks left, no one has actually clinched a playoff spot.

Here's how things would look if the playoff started today:

1. Levine - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE
3. Alan - Division Champ
4. Gutman
5. BAM
6. Kumpf

Huge wins by Gutman and BAM did wonders for their playoff chances, while the final playoff spot will likely come down to me and Barnard. Similar to how the NFL flexes the most important Week 17 game into primetime, Barnard and I face off next week in what is potentially the first "playoff" game.

Playoff Odds

After Week 11:

No team has started 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2

100% (6/6) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs

88% (7/8 of 7-4 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs

33% (2/6) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-10 or 11-0

After Week 12:

No team has started 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2

100% (4/4) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs

100% (5/5) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs

63% (5/8) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs

17% (1/6) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/3) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12

Not a lot of certainty here. Levine is as good as in based on his record, but if he loses out and things break the wrong way, he could be NiJoed. The 5-6 crew doesn't have a ton of hope, but a team like Ajay with a newly re-relevant Thomas Rawls could make a late push. My biggest takeaway here is that lineup decisions matter more than ever, especially now that byes are over.

NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Candidates:

• Kumpf - 6th seed, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 7th seed, 6th in points (42 points out of top 3)
• Ajay - 8th seed, 7th in points (46 points out of top 3)

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 1st seed, 11th in points (141 points out of top 3)
• BAM - 5th seed, 5th in points (29 points out of top 3)
• Gutman - 4th seed, 4th in points (18 points out of top 3)

The race for top 3 in scoring has tightened a bit, so whoever lands in the dreaded 6th seed will likely be sweating out the final week.

Playoff Predictions

1. Levine - BYE - Division Champ
2. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
3. Zacherman
4. BAM
5. Gutman
6. Kumpf

Green's injury likely ends things for Barnard, as his chances of winning matchups drops, as does his ability to make up points in the NiJo race. But every team here is flawed, so things will very likely change over the next two weeks.

Team of the Week - Levine

Beating a banged up Barnard team isn't necessarily impressive on its own, but this win means that Levine only has to win one more matchup to clinch the playoffs. His last two are against Ajay and Marco, two disappointing teams that still bring it every week, so that's not a given. But still, a roster as mediocre as this shouldn't be the first team to clinch, yet Levine has made it work with moves like the Mariota trade, picking up Dion Lewis, and managing his lineup effectively. I agree with AGD that it's been a weird year, and that Levine's team is terrible, but he also hasn't been beating himself.

Lineup Decisions

I really wanted to give Best of the Week to BAM for starting CJ over Witten literally just to spite me, but they would have barely won either way. Other than that, there really wasn't much to celebrate or bitch about. Most teams that made poor lineup decisions won in spite of them, and most teams that made good lineup decisions lost anyway. I could give myself Worst of the Week for starting Kelvin Benjamin over Rishard Matthews, but I'm not in the business of being self-critical.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman's lack of depth

We all know that Z's team is top-heavy, but this week illustrated just how reliant he is on a few players. Despite a huge game from Brady, a solid game from DeMarco and a TD from Jordy, Z still only managed to put up 76 points. Granted, this was without Gronk, and Make Cameron Brate Again shat the bed, but come playoff time, I don't think there's a single team that I would be comfortable betting on.

Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - BAM vs. Gutman

I know I buried the lede, but... THE KURSE IS OVER! THE MASANDIASSANCE LIVES! Thanks to Alan, I now have a newfound faith in my ability to make predictions. This week that involves a matchup that basically clinches a playoff spot for the winner, and leaves the loser potentially vulnerable to being NiJoed. We should know a lot about how this one will end up by the time we finish our turkey, as Zeke, Witten and Hilton all play on Thanksgiving. Both teams are strong on paper, but my pick is based off the fact that Gutman has several lineup decisions between the Saints RBs, a banged up Diggs, and James Starks, while BAM has no depth, leaving them with no decisions to make outside of their much-ballyhooed TE battle. My complete lack of faith in Gutman's decision-making leaves me picking BAM. #ReverseTheKurse

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Week 10 Recap

The Kurse strikes again! This is honestly getting silly. I've made a legitimate prediction for who will win the Matchup of the Week every week  since Week 2 in this space, and my record is 0-9. In my defense, I picked some pretty damn good matchups, as most of them were decided by less than 10 points, but the fact that I haven't been right once? Now I know what Barnard feels like on a daily basis. I've also spread the love in terms of Kursing teams, other than AGD, who I've hit up three times. Heavy are the heads that wear the crown I guess.

Also, because we're now dangerously close to the playoffs, this is where we would stand if the season ended today (ignoring the default ESPN seeding and using our NiJo/Division rules):

1. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
2. Levine - BYE
3. Alan - Division Champ
4. Kumpf
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. BAM

Gutman would currently miss the playoffs by 1.1 points. Also, don't look now but Alan is in a bit of a freefall after losing 4 of his last 5. He already owns the biggest collapse in recent history, missing the playoffs after being 7-4 a few years back. Given his total points, I think Alan only misses the playoffs if he loses out, but the Masandiassance is on life support.

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:

No team has started 10-0 or 9-1

100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs

100% (6/6) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs

71% (5/7) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs

36% (5/14) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/4) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/6) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:

No team has started 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2

100% (6/6) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs

88% (7/8 of 7-4 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs

33% (2/6) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-10 or 11-0

This week tells a different story from last week, where 6 losses was a death blow. After 11 weeks, having 5 or 6 losses is essentially identical. You need to win out to have a realistic shot, but if you win out, you're in pretty good shape. This means Ajay, Marco and even Weissbard still have an outside shot of crashing the playoff party. They would potentially be NiJoed out, but crazier things have happened. I mean, Levine is looking at a bye while being 12th in scoring! This gives us 4 very interesting matchups in Week 11.

NiJo Rule Watch

Levine, Barnard and I escaping with wins makes it a lot less likely that we'll see the NiJo (or Division Champ) rule enacted, but it's still possible if things break the right/wrong way.

Playoff Predictions

1. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
2. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
3. Kumpf
4. Barnard - Division Champ
5. BAM
6. Levine

This puts Levine in danger of being NiJoed, but it would require Gutman to make up 35 points on me to get into the top three. Then again, if Levine keeps his highwire act going, this won't matter anyway.

Team of the Week - Bruno

It's not just that he got the high score of the week, but as usual in this space, it's how he did it. First of all, he got big games from the random ass dudes that he drafted for $1 in Perriman, Powell, Smitty and Crowder. Next, he dropped an absurd $25 bid for Tampa's D, only to see them put up their best performance of the season by 11 points. But finally, after weirdly picking up Mariota, he curiously traded him for Kyle Rudolph, who also put up a big game! He was on Bruno's bench, but still! Congrats Bruno. This may be your last hurrah, but it's a hurrah nonetheless.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Tyler Eifert over Julius Thomas

Lots of close matchups this week, so I won't list out all of the decisions that were made. Given that I gave Barnard a Worst of the Week award for making this exact decision a few weeks ago, it's only fair that I give him credit when he gets it right. Why he's carrying two TEs is beyond me, but I guess it gives the potential for a bad lineup decision every week, so I'll take it.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - BAM starting C.J. Fiedorowicz over Jason Witten

With respect to Gutman's James Starks/Alshon situation, and AGD's entire team, I have to also return the favor on BAM, who got Best of the Week for this situation previously. You know what they say, if you have two tight ends, you have no tight ends, and you guys really have no tight end. That loss hurts.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Close Matchups Galore

After no matchup was closer than 12 points in Week 9, Week 10 gave us 5 such matchups. This obviously makes lineup management a huge deal, and while we did well overall as a league, teams that don't have a clear-cut starting lineup will have to think long and hard each week moving forward.

Biggest Matchup of Week 11 - Alan vs. Bennett

As shown above, you really want to be 7-4 or better after Week 11. We have three matchups between teams that are in the thick of the playoff race, but two of them are guaranteed to end with at least one team at 7-4. The other is me vs. BAM, and given our points scored, both teams are likely to remain in the playoff picture anyway. That leaves us with Alan's free-falling team trying to right the ship against BMO, who is trying to keep their season alive. Alan's team is finally back at full strength after a string of byes and injuries, so he looks to have the upper hand, but Bennett's WR duo are capable of keeping him in any game. I think Booker's bye will end up being Bennett's undoing, so while I hate to do this, I have to go with Alan. We'll see if the Masandiassance can reverse the #Kurse.

Week 9 Recap

As we head into the final four regular season weeks, we can rule out a few more teams. As mentioned last week in this space, 3-6 or worse means your season is historically over, so it's "wait til next year" for Ajay, Marco, Esco and the latest #KumpfKurse victim, AGD. It's honestly shocking how bad I am at predicting who will win the matchup of the week. Let's jump right into the playoff discussion...

Playoff Odds

After Week 9:
No team has started 8-1 or 9-0
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (3/9) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-9

After Week 10:
No team has started 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 7-3 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 6-4 teams made the playoffs
36% (5/14) of 5-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 1-9 or 0-10

Six losses still spells doom this week, keeping Weissbard's season perpetually on the line. Every other non-eliminated team is either 6-3 or 5-4, making for a couple of juicy matchups with massive playoff implications. Ending this week at 5-5 doesn't eliminate you, but with all the potential NiJo/Division scenarios, 6-4 looks a hell of a lot nicer.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Kumpf - 6th place, 3rd in scoring
• Barnard - 7th place, 4th in scoring

Potential Victims:

• BAM - 4th place, 8th in scoring
• Levine - 5th place, 12th in scoring

ESPN currently lists Barnard as 3rd place, which is not accurate due to our complicated playoff rules. If the season ended today, the NiJo rule would not need to be invoked because I am already in 6th place due to the standard seeding rules (record, then points). Despite being a Division Champ, Barnard would be out of the playoffs because the NiJo rule trumps the Division rule. Once again, despite me potentially benefiting from them this year, I think we need to simplify our playoff rules.

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Gutman
5. Levine
6. Kumpf

Gutman's upset of Alan keeps him out of 6th, and saves him from being potentially NiJoed. As just mentioned, this situation has Barnard in 7th as a Division Champ, and not in the playoffs assuming I end up as a top 3 scorer.

Team of the Week - Weissbard

Between subpar drafting and even worse injury luck, Weissbard has spent most of this year trotting out a shitter lineup than Bruno, which is saying something. He did benefit from some absurd schedule luck, but still, no one took him seriously as a playoff contender. Well don't look now, but Weiss almost hit 100 this week, and has a generally respectable roster. I don't know that anyone is really scared of him on a weekly basis, but if he wins out, he controls his destiny. We may be witnessing an underdog story on par with Rudy, complete with its diminutive hero.


No Lineup Decisions of the Week

Between a lack of close games, and a ton of bye weeks leading to relatively empty benches, no team won or lost a matchup based on a start/sit decision. The closest anyone came was Marco starting Devante Parker over Kapri Bibbs, but he still would have lost by less than 1. Hopefully we have better stories next week.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - The Eliminated Teams

Ajay, AGD and Esco make up 4 of our 7 Stevens Bowl champions, and 8 of our 14 Stevens Bowl participants. That success was truly impressive, but it's just as amazing that they're all eliminated after Week 9. Given the performance of the historical powers, one might guess that the first-year teams are experiencing beginner's luck, as was the case early in FALAFEL's history. But that's not the true either, as the only other eliminated teams are Bruno and Marco. It's looking more and more like we're going to get the equivalent of a Cubs/Indians matchup between two long-suffering teams in the Stevens Bowl.


Biggest Matchup of Week 10 - Gutman vs. Kumpf

I've avoided putting myself in most of these sections throughout the year, but the playoff implications here are too big to ignore. Alan vs. Zacherman is obviously a huge matchup, but both of these teams are extremely likely to make the playoffs. Weissbard vs. Levine will be an ugly slugfest, and honestly I've given Weiss too much love already this week. So I settled on the Crow's Nest Bowl, where byes will play a big factor. Gutman loses T.Y. Hilton, but can just plug in Alshon after trade raping Esco. On my side, the over reliance on Oakland is going to hurt a lot as I'm likely starting multiple players in the Tennessee passing game, as well as Eli. I like my team, but not enough to win without my Raiders. Gutman, you've been #Kursed.

Week 8 Recap

I make a lot of terrible predictions in this space. This year, I've been so bad at picking the winner of my self-chosen Matchup of the Week, that the kids have started calling it the Kumpf Kurse, with Bennett being the latest casualty. But the first prediction I made is looking pretty good, as my preseason Stevens Bowl picks, Zacherman and Levine, look like solid bets to be relevant in December. Unfortunately, while Z is still an absolute contender, we have a new favorite to win it all. After his trade rape of Marco last week, I think Barnard has the best team as the calendar turns to November. The best team doesn't always equate to a Chef's Coat, or even a playoff berth, but if Barnard wins this thing in my first season as Commish, something has gone horribly wrong. This is in no way a reverse jinx.


Playoff Odds

After Week 8:
No team has started 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
63% (5/8) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (4/13) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-8

After Week 9:
No team has started 8-1 or 9-0
100% (3/3) of 7-2 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 5-4 teams made the playoffs
33% (3/9) of 4-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 3-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 2-7 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 1-8 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-9

As you can see, being 6-3 or better after Week 9 is a huge delineation, and there is essentially no difference between 5-4 and 4-5. We currently have five teams that are 5-3 or better, meaning that at least one playoff spot is "up for grabs." It also means that all is not officially lost for the multitude of 3-5 teams out there, and that only Bruno is eliminated based on historical league performance. Given the current breakdown of the standings, shit is going to get very interesting between the NiJo Rule and the Division races.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Kumpf - 7th place, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 8th place, 4th in points

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 2nd place, 12th in points
• Gutman - 5th place, 5th in points
• BAM - 6th place, 6th in points

Levine's win over Gutman was huuuuge last week as it distances him from the vulnerable 6th place in the standings. Given Barnard and my chances of ending up top 3 in scoring, we are increasingly likely to see the NiJo rule enacted this year.

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Levine
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule over Gutman

This shows how truly important Levine's win was this week, and how much Gutman is gonna hate reading this week's post.

Team of the Week - Zacherman

Yes, he had the most points this week and one of the biggest weeks of the year. But he did so with his entire bench on a bye. If you're a fan of roster quirks, and I am, this week was fun for Z. No start/sit decision to make, limited pressure going up against Weissbard, and he put up an insane score. This team is inherently flawed at three positions, but given the way Tom, Gronk and DeMarco are playing, it might not end up mattering.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - BAM starting C.J. Fiedorowicz over Jason Witten

When I saw you guys started the notorious CJF last week, I assumed it was as a bye-week fill in for Witten. I didn't realize he was your secret weapon. You benefited from some extremely questionable roster management from Bennett, but that doesn't change the fact that your TE held down the fort while Beckham was on a bye.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week

This was quite a battle between Bennett and Gutman. Some of these decisions were just bad luck, but all of them cost these teams their matchups:

• Bennett starting Kadeem Carey over T.J. Yeldon
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith over Vernon Davis
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas over Rishard Matthews
• Gutman starting Mark Ingram over Tim Hightower
• Gutman starting TY Hilton and Brandon LaFell over Stefon Diggs, Tim Hightower, Jordan Matthews, and Russell Shephard
• Gutman starting Demaryius Thomas over Stefon Diggs

In the end it comes down to Carey/Yeldon vs. LaFell/Diggs to me. Both of these were abjectly terrible decisions at the time, and they honestly may cost both teams playoff berths. In Gutman's own words:

"Let me just say, I was traveling for work and drank half a bottle of tequila, then put in LaFell because I got in an argument with a Redskins fan coworker, then slept through the game."

That's some New Gutman shit if I've ever heard it, but I do respect the drunk/spiteful lineup management. Bennett starting Kadeem Carey over T.J. Yeldon is the Worst Lineup Decision of the Week.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman vs. Levine

In a matchup of supposed playoff teams, Gut and Levine combined for 95.8 points, less than three teams put up individually. This tells me two things: 1) Neither of these teams is a favorite moving forward, and 2) The next five weeks will be verrrrrry interesting, as the standings don't nearly match the quality of the teams at this point.


Biggest Matchup of Week 9 - Weissbard vs. AGD

The eventual playoff teams are still fully in flux, but the following teams (other than Bruno) can be "eliminated" by being 3-6 or worse after this week: Esco, Weissbard, AGD, Marco and Ajay. Weiss and AGD face each other, making this a Loser Leaves Town matchup. AGD is decimated by byes, but has built some nice depth and will be able to put together a solid lineup anyway. Weissbard has a ragtag squad of underdogs who still have yet to break 75 points. It's been a nice run for Weiss after his early rash of injuries, but his playoff dreams die this week. AGD, you've been #Kursed.

Week 7 Recap

Water always finds its level. Heading into Week 7, Alan suffered his first loss of the year due to terrible roster management, and Weissbard was on a surprise 3-game winning streak without ever breaking 75 points. Over that time, Weiss improved his roster by throwing out some massive Waiver bids, as well as trading AP for Jacquizz Rodgers at precisely the right moment, while Alan traded away Melvin Gordon to sure up his receiving corps, a move that has yet to pay off. Things looked ripe for a potentially huge upset.

But then...

The Masandiassance lives on.


Playoff Odds

After Week 7:
No team has started 7-0
100% (4/4) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
50% (5/10) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

After Week 8:
No team has started 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
63% (5/8) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (4/13) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-8

Lots of playoff implications this week. Gutman and Levine have the chance to join Alan in the 100% club (other than NiJo Rule/Division Champ implications). And they play each other. There is a 25% gap between 5-3 and 4-4, so there is also a lot at stake for BAM, Bennett, and Zacherman, with BAM and Bennett facing each other. Big picture: based on the last 4 years of playoff odds, every team still has a chance. However, one more loss for Marco, Bruno or AGD would officially eliminate them, and AGD and Bruno are facing off. Picking Matchup of the Week is gonna be tough.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Zacherman - 5th place, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 7th place, 4th in points
• Kumpf - 8th place, 5th in points

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 4th place, 11th in points
• BAM - 6th place, 6th in points
• Bennett - 7th place, 7th in points

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Gutman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Zacherman
5. Bennett
6. Kumpf - NiJo rule over Levine

If I don't qualify under the NiJo rule, Levine still wouldn't make the playoffs, as our Division Champ rule would put the top team from Ajay's division into the playoffs. Which right now I'm guessing is Barnard.

Team of the Week - Alan

I know that these posts are all very Alan-centric, but this is the world we're living in. I'm not putting him up here simply because he had the highest score of the week by 30 points, but because it's also important to note how it happened. As I mentioned, he traded away Melvin Gordon two weeks ago. Shady was banged up and glued to the bench. And high-priced receiver Allen Robinson put up a whopping 0.9 points in the starting lineup. Other than those low points, every other player in his lineup put up at least 13.3 points, including another ridiculous week by Jay Ajayi, who honestly should have been dropped after Week 1. Barnard needs a win this week, but with Gurley on a bye, I have a feeling that Alan will be dragging his ass all over Barnard's carpet.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Marco starting Kirk Cousins over Matt Stafford

With his season all but over, Marco chose to go down with the ship rather than go against his team. Given the way Stafford has played recently, I'm not sure I would have done the same thing, but Captain Kirk rewarded his faith with a ridiculous rushing TD that proved to be the difference in the game. The Skins may have ultimately lost, but Marco's faith in them kept his season alive, albeit on life support.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Tyler Eifert over Julius Thomas

So many options this week:

• Bennett starting Matt Jones and T.J. Yeldon over Chris Thompson
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith over Michael Thomas
• Barnard starting Todd Gurley over Matt Forte
• Esco starting Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Pierre Garcon over Tavon Austin
• AGD starting DeAndre Hopkins, Mohamed Sanu, Lamar Miller, Christine Michael and James White over Davante Adams

I almost gave this to AGD simply because they had so may opportunities to start Adams, but I think Barnard takes the cake here. Eifert has been hurt for so long, and had so many setbacks, that any intelligent fantasy football owner would have at least waited to see how he looked before starting him. Especially with a backup like Julius going against a porous defense in Oakland. Instead, Barnard made the curious choice of starting Eifert in a game that Cincy was assuredly going to win, and thus not risk injuring their start TE, and he paid for it.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM's no show

I haven't mentioned Billy and Marshall too much this year, but they've put together a roster that's capable of putting up some serious points. The roster also has some terrifying holes. They're over-reliant on the dynamic duo of Zeke and ODB (not necessarily a bad thing), as well as the surprising performances of Marvin Jones (seems legit) and Spencer Ware (Charles' presence is looming like a guillotine). Most importantly, they literally do not have a quarterback. When things are rolling on all cylinders, they can put up 90+, as they've done in their four wins, but when things go wrong, they can go way wrong. This league has inherently shallow rosters, but I don't think any good team is as thin as this one.


Biggest Matchup of Week 8 - BAM vs. Bennett

I really wanted to go with Gutman/Levine, but I feel like Levine is involved here every week, I pick against him, and he benefits from the Kumpf Kurse. So this week I'm going to continue focusing on BAM, and highlight their matchup with Bennett. Bye weeks are wreaking havoc on these rosters, with ODB, Antonio and Ben all out of commission. BAM gets Zeke back, and will likely pick up a QB, but this team is actually going to miss the presence of Kenny Britt. Bennett at least has Matty Ice to fall back on, as well as the seemingly rejuvenated Davante Adams, so I'm gonna go ahead and pick him. Bennett, you've been Kursed.

Week 6 Recap

What a week in fantasy football. The end of the Masandaissance continues the Kumpf Kurse, which expands beyond FALAFEL. I'm in four different leagues this year, and through six weeks I have let up the most points in every fucking league. Considering those leagues contain 16, 14, 12, and 10 teams respectively, the chances of that happening is about 1 in 27,000. So while I know several people in this league (namely Ajay) are still pissed about the Bruno trades, you'll be happy to know that Sundays have been terrible for me all year. Gutman's luck has been better so far, but he ran into the top score this week, so things could be turning for him too.


Playoff Odds

After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

Alan's close loss continues this league's tradition of not having a 6-0 team since at least 2012. I think Z was something like 10-0 in 2010 before losing to yours truly, and Ajay went undefeated into the title game in the Cortesian era before losing to Teezy himself, but for these purposes, 5-0 appears to be the upper limit.

After Week 7:
No team has started 7-0
100% (4/4) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
50% (5/10) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

This week the biggest takeaway is that you want to be over .500 after Week 7. That means that 4 teams (Bruno, Marco, AGD and myself*) are as good as done already. It also means that this is a huge week for Barnard, Ajay, Weissbard, Zacherman and Esco, as they set their eyes on the playoffs. Alan, Gutman and BAM are the clear upper crust still, and will likely be fighting for the two byes.


*NIJO Rule Watch

As a reminder, the NIJO rule states:

The top five teams according to record get the top five seeds. Sixth seed goes to the highest scoring team outside the top five, unless that team is fourth or lower in points, in which case sixth seed goes to the team with the sixth best record. If the sixth place team according to record is in the top three in points, they are protected and automatically get the sixth seed, even if a team with a worse record has more points than them. Division winners get an automatic spot in the top six in the standings, but don't get any advantage with regard to seeding, and are not protected from the NIJO rule merely by virtue of being division winners.

I'm currently fifth in scoring despite being the 11th seed overall, and Zacherman is fourth despite being 7th overall. Both of us loom large as potential NIJO candidates down the road. The team that should be most afraid is Levine (6th seed, 10th in scoring), but Esco (9th seed, 9th in scoring) and even Weissbard (10th seed, 14th in scoring) will be vulnerable if they keep getting lucky wins. I'll be keeping track of this as the season progresses and I keep letting up 100+ points per week.


Team of the Week: AGD

This was an easy one. After five weeks of underachieving, and being last week's "Biggest Surprise of the Week," AGD came back with a vengeance. They earned the high score of the week while getting less than 10 points combined from their receivers. If they had started Torrey Smith and Sanu, they could have had the highest score all year one week after having the lowest score of the year, which is simply amazing. They still have a lot of ground to make up after a slow start, but I'm not ruling them out just yet (more to come on that).


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: BAM starting John Brown over Travis Benjamin or Philip Dorsett

Yes, they could have won easily if they started Spencer Ware over any of these guys, but choosing Brown was by no means a slam dunk. He put up over 1.5 points in only one game this year before Monday, and Arizona looked out of sorts, so I probably would have chosen Benjamin in this case. But BAM was proved correct, and in doing so ended the Masandaissance.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Alan :(

Apologies to Marco (Cousins over Stafford) and myself (Carr and Kelvin over Eli and JStew), but Alan cost himself a chance at 6-0 in spectacular fashion. He would have won if he made any of the following start/sit decisions:

• Ajayi over Bernard
• Ajayi over Enunwa
• Boyd over Crabtree
• Doyle over Enunwa
• Beasley over Robinson
• Beasley over Crabtree
• Beasley over Enunwa

Obviously Ajayi came out of nowhere, and Boyd/Doyle wouldn't have been smart process decisions. I would call Beasley/Enunwa a coin flip a the flex, but it has to hurt when you pulled Beasley at the last minute. Maybe Alan Can't Hang.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Esco's single digits

He avoided the Christmas Card, but Esco's point total was completely unexpected. Not just that he finished in the 40s, but that he put up an incredible show of mediocrity. In the previous low scores by Weiss and AGD, they at least had one player reach double figures, albeit barely. Finishing a week without anyone having a good game is unprecedented in my memory.


Biggest Matchup of Week 7: Levine vs. AGD

None of our five 3-3 teams are facing each other, so this matchup becomes increasingly important due to NIJO rules. As previously mentioned, Levine needs to put up some points and stay above the 6th seed to avoid missing out on the playoffs, while AGD needs to win enough to qualify on their own, as Z and myself will likely trump them in NIJO rule priority. I really want to pick Levine and give him the Kumpf Kurse, but I just like AGD's team better this week, and they get their Texans on MNF to have the last word. AGD, consider yourself Kursed.

Week 5 Recap

Week 5 was an absolute dumpster fire for this league. Bruno's lineup decisions aside, the following players were all starting this week: Jacquizz Rodgers, Quincy Enunwa, Dontrelle Inman, Jesse James, Orleans Darkwa, Tyrell Williams, Terrance West, Jeremy Kerley, Jamison Crowder, Zach Zenner, DeAndre Washington, and Lance Kendricks. And that doesn't even include any of the players AGD started en route to 36.7 points. If the Christmas card contains anything less than explicit anal, I'll be disappointed.

Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (1/1) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
21% (3/14) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

The playoff picture is starting to take shape. Alan and Gutman are looking like good bets, and BAM, Bennett and Esco have to be happy with their position as well. Beyond those 5 teams, I would say that Ajay, Zacherman and myself have the best chance to join the party, with Barnard and Levine looming as dark horses. That leaves Marco, Bruno, Weissbard and AGD as good as done. Of those four teams, I'm only willing to truly write off Weiss and Bruno, but another loss from Marco or AGD will be the nail in the coffin.


Team of the Week - Zacherman

He sold his soul to the devil, but it might actually work. After struggling without Brady and Gronk (who he still started twice anyway), and then losing Dez, it would have been easy to write off this team. But this week showed us what Z is capable of. Still without Dez, he had Brady, Gronk, Jordy and Murray combine for 65. If his other four lineup spots can put up even 5 points each, he can compete every week. There is a clear hole at RB2 and Flex, but we could look back at Week 5 as the start of a run by Z.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard sticking with Martellus Bennett

The Pats offense has been pretty difficult to figure out this year. Between Brady's suspension, injuries to Gronk and Lewis, and their stable of white receivers, it's hard to rely on anyone confidently. With Brady back and Gronk healthy, you could forgive Weissbard for going to the waiver wire for TE help, rather than risk Brady being out of sync with the Black Unicorn. He showed faith, and the Unicorn rewarded him.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Ajay starting Jeremy Hill over Tevin Coleman

Yes, Coleman was going up against Denver's D. But their biggest weakness is stopping the run, as well as stopping pass-catching RBs, which fits Coleman to a tee. Combine that with Hill being banged up all week, and this was at least a decision that needed to be made. Ajay made the wrong one, and it cost him the win.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - AGD

I could chalk this up as biggest surprise of the season as well. AGD has the best overall record since this league began, has made the Stevens Bowl the last two years, and won it once. Maybe you could say that they were due for a rough year. But I liked their team well enough post-draft, and despite losing Dion Lewis immediately, they lucked into Christine Michael. They got hit pretty hard with byes this week, but even at full strength, the ceiling for this team is pretty low.


Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - BAM vs. Alan

While I personally think that me vs. Z is going to be more important in the long run, as the loser drops to a very tenuous 2-4, a battle between our top two teams by points scored will be more entertaining. This also gives Alan the opportunity to be our first 6-0 team in the last four years. Given that my track record in picking the winner of these matchups isn't great, I'm going to pre-emptively apologize to Alan for picking him. We'll see if the stench of my pick is enough to take the luster off the Masandaissance.

Week 4 Recap

With four games coming down to MNF, three of which ended up within 10 points of each other, this was by far our most entertaining week of the season. My Matchup of the Week was decided by 2.3 points, which is two weeks in a row that I've called a close game. In the sports world, we call that a streak. Speaking of streaking, can anyone stop Alan? I'm on deck, but my team is ravaged by injuries and byes. We could very well be living in a world where Alan is 5-0.


Playoff Odds

After Week 4:
100% (2/2) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
45% (9/20) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams made the playoffs

After Week 5:
100% (1/1) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
21% (3/14) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

The playoff odds are starting to show a clear delineation between contenders and pretenders. Anyone that finishes this week above .500 is looking pretty good. Anyone below .500 needs some serious help. We surprisingly have no matchup between 2-2 teams, but for a team like Esco (who has only outscored 4 teams), this week can be huge in terms of banking wins.


Team of the Week - Levine

I can't give Bennett credit for starting his studs, and weirdly benching Yeldon for Dwayne Washington. I can't give my team credit when my team is really just Julio and friends. And I can't give Alan more credit because he's honestly starting to get pretty full of himself.

That leaves Levine, who sits at 3-1 despite only outscoring Weissbard and Bruno. However, he now has Leveon back in the fold, and got past the Lacy/Cobb byes unscathed. To his credit, he's been all aboard the Will Fuller train, and now has one of the deepest teams in the league (other than that abomination at QB).


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Ajay picking up and starting Dak Prescott over Jacoby Brissett

There were no start/sit decisions that won games this week, so I'm going to give the award to Ajay for showing restraint and not getting carried away with the Pats hype. Granted, guys like Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith and Case Keenum would have won the game for Ajay as well, but not all Pats fans made the same wise decisions.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Gronk over Cameron Brate

I had a similar issue with Barnard starting Edelman (who at least had a chance of playing QB) over Crabtree, but I don't understand why you would start anyone involved with the Pats passing game under Jake Brisket. Obviously Martellus Bennett had a big day, but with Gronk still banged up, it seems like a big risk to take a goose egg at TE when you have a serviceable backup available. At 1-3, Z is two roster moves away from 3-1, which has to hurt almost as much as it will to start Brady next week.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Weissbard won!

I honestly didn't think it was going to happen, unless he maaaaybe beat Bruno, but Weiss actually won a game. Not only that, but he beat a previously overconfident Barnard team while voluntarily keeping his highest scoring player on his bench. Cheers to you Weissbard, you now have the same amount of wins as AGD and Marco.


Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - BAM vs. Marco

No obvious choice this week, so I'll pick a game where each team has a lot at stake. As previously mentioned, the difference between 3-2 and 2-3 is 39% in playoff odds, so BAM can put themselves (and their very solid roster) in a good position moving forward. By doing so, they would essentially end the season for Marco, who was up 40 points after last Thursday's game, only for Julio to crush his dreams. Given that Marco has yet to score less than 82 points, but still sits at 1-3, I think his luck turns this week and he keeps his season alive.

Week 3 Recap

After three weeks, Alan is the only undefeated team. If that seems like a surprising start for our first-ever champion, you would be wrong. In 2014, Alan started 4-1 before losing 6 of his last 8 games to finish 6-7. As you'll see below, this isn't entirely uncommon. Shitty starts can turn into miraculous runs, and dominant starts can turn into epic collapses. But a win is a win, and Alan has three of them without a loss. Are we witnessing the Masandaissance?


Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (4/4) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
42% (8/19) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
38% (5/13) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (2/2) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
45% (9/20) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams made the playoffs

Another oddity of the small sample sizes, Gutman's wild 2014 playoff run after starting 0-4 makes that position look more desirable than going 1-3. I was more surprised to see the lack of certainty that a 3-1 record provides. Given the weirdness that we've seen so far this year, I'm predicting that we see our first playoff run after a 1-3 start, likely coming from one of the following teams:

• Zacherman gets Brady back after next week, and will presumably have a healthy Gronk.
• AGD gets Josh Gordon back, and stumbled into a legit RB1 in Christine Michael
• I won't keep "allowing" 100+ points per week right? Right?!?!

Team of the Week - Ajay

Gutman's raw point total was impressive, but he was fueled by a ridiculous game from the Chiefs D thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm choosing Ajay here because he easily cleared 100 points while leaving a shit ton of points on his bench. Not only was his 126.5 score the highest of the year, but if he had just started Jeremy Hill over Ryan Mathews and Desean Jackson over Golden Tate (neither of which were terrible choices, but still), he would have put broken 160. That's absurd in a 14-team league that doesn't have kickers. Last week I said that we saw the floor for Ajay's team. This week we saw its ceiling.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bruno starting Sammy Watkins

Some may have an issue with the way he's handled his team so far, but Bruno may be a secret genius. Literally every team that has been autodrafted has won the chef's coat. Looking at raw points, his trades with Gutman and I haven't been nearly as one-sided as they first seemed, (though obviously Sammy, Floyd, and Vereen getting hurt isn't helping things). And through three weeks, Bruno has one win and two close losses, giving him the same record as AGD, who have been Stevens Bowl contenders for the last three years. It also gives him the same record as fellow newcomer Marco, who he just defeated. And he didn't just win. He won while voluntarily taking a goose egg at WR1. That's some next level shit right there. Bruno, we are all witnesses.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Andy Dalton against Denver instead of Jameis Winston against the Rams

I've been on record saying that Barnard has backed his way into a somewhat good team despite not really knowing that he's doing. This week does nothing to change that, as Barnard's admitted recency bias (and likely implicit racism) led him to believing in a ginger against one of the more dominant defenses in NFL history. That decision was enough for him to take his first L of the year to a quietly good BAM team.

Honorable mention goes to AGD for not only trading for Dennis Pitta, but starting him over Coby Fleener.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Curt Menefee passing it to Bennett

It would have been cooler if it came from Chris Berman just to hear him give Bennett a nickname. Or if they just played this clip.

Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Esco vs. Gutman

These teams, similar to BAM, are a relatively quiet 2-1. They sit at 6th and 7th in points scored, and are starting guys like Brock Osweiler, Jacob Tamme, Tavon Austin and Clive Walford. But one of these teams will be 3-1 after this week, and sitting in the driver's seat for a playoff berth. Gutman looks to have the stronger team in general, especially with Doug Martin out and Brandon Marshall banged up, but I think this comes down to MNF with the Vikings D (facing Eli) outscoring Diggs for the Esco win.

Podcast 2016.09 - X Marks The Spot

Week 2 Recap

Another week in the books, and what a week it was. High-profile injuries, some semi-close matchups, and a brewing battle for worst record between Weissbard and Bruno. Most importantly, Felix from League Lobster became arguably the most valuable non-league member we've ever seen. I'm tempted to name the regular season championship award after him, and I'll be bringing that up for vote at Winter Meetings.

Speaking of Winter Meetings, I'm going to keep a running tally of the agenda so we don't forget anything:

• PPR (half or full)
• IR slot(s)
• Name the Regular Season Champion Award the Felix Award sponsored by League Lobster
• Increase the points that DSTs score for preventing opposing offenses from scoring

AGD proposed that last one to me, and I think it's at least worth discussing. Turnovers and return TDs are notoriously difficult to predict, but points allowed is a more consistent stat. If we're going to adjust the scoring at all, I can see bumping up the values in this area. I don't think a huge correction is in order, but a small adjustment could benefit someone like Weissbard as he tries to break 50 points.

Playoff Odds

With a 13-week regular season, every fantasy matchup carries a pretty heavy weight, even by NFL standards. So while it's true that losing one game isn't the end of the world, at some point every team can start to see its future come together a little bit more clearly. To back this feeling with some actual numbers, I'll be including playoff odds each week that shows the percentage of teams with a given record that made the playoffs based on our last 3 years (the post-Kimmel era). Not a huge sample size, and points scored likely has a better correlation to future performance, but it's something.

After Week 1:
52% (11/21) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
33% (7/21) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs

Including this just as a frame of reference. Still makes the point clear that a win is a win.

After Week 2:
50% (5/10) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
55% (12/22) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
10% (1/10) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

Speaking to the small sample size, being 1-1 appears to be more advantageous that being 2-0. That's obviously not the case, but the point here is that you want to have at least one win after two weeks. This means we can pretty much write off Bruno and Weissbard, but it also means that Zacherman (who I previously considered a favorite) would need to defy the odds to make the playoffs.

After Week 3:
100% (4/4) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
42% (8/19) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
38% (5/13) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

I was very surprised to see that every 3-0 team has gone on to make the playoffs. Given that there have only been 4 of them in the last three years, this isn't a total shock I guess, but you would still think that a team would have benefited from an easy schedule early on, and then fallen apart. This means that the winner of Alan/Levine is either set up for a guaranteed playoff spot, or an epic collapse.

I'll keep updating these each week, so we can keep tabs on the playoff picture earlier than usual.


Team of the Week: Barnard

It might sound easy to just hand this award to the highest scorer, but because I'm giving it to Barnard, it's as painful a decision as I've ever made. Barnard does deserve the award this week, mostly due to how he won. Putting up the most points in a week while getting next to nothing from his QB and "star" RB, is pretty impressive. However, it also speaks to the fact that Barnard really has no idea what he's doing, considering he started a DST against his QB, and got some untenable performances from Blount and Forte. If anyone can start 3-0 and then end up 3-10, it's Barnard.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: Levine starting Ryan Tannehill over Alex Smith

Having to choose between two below average fantasy QBs isn't a fun decision. Considering Smith threw the ball almost 50 times in Week 1 and still doesn't have Jamaal Charles, Levine could have been forgiven for riding him instead of Tannehill. For some Miami fans, starting Tanny against the Pats is only a recipe for disaster. But Levine believed, and was rewarded with a 2-0 record instead of an extremely embarrassing loss to Bruno.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Gutman starting Jeremy Langford/TY Hilton over Stefon Diggs

I don't think anyone can blame Gut for starting Hilton, even against Denver's D, given how Indy's offense looked in Week 1. However, starting a mediocre RB against a stout Eagles run defense, instead of the prototypical Sam Bradford target in Bradford's first game, is less defensible. Going with Diggs was by no means an obvious call. It would have taken balls. Gutman didn't show any.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Ajay

His score ended up respectable, but I was shocked to see Ajay sitting at 29.9 heading into Sunday Night Football. This week was my fear for Ajay's team post-draft, where the lineup decisions are difficult, and no one has a huge week. He didn't really mess up his start/sit decisions, but the ceiling of this team just isn't all that high, especially given Rodgers' recent lack of stellar play. At the same time, the floor is very high (and we probably saw it this week), which gives Ajay a chance to win every single week. It's also going to make for some very stressful Sundays for our defending champ.


Biggest Matchup of Week 3: AGD vs. Zacherman

The obvious choice here would be the battle of the undefeateds in Alan vs. Levine, but both of those teams are off to solid starts. I'm more interested at Zacherman's bid to avoid 0-3 against and AGD team that has defined dominance over the last 3 years. Z was one of my post-draft Stevens Bowl picks, with the thought that he had a solid team that would get a boost with the return of Brady. Unlike the actual Pats however, Z hasn't managed so well with Brady and Gronk. Speaking of New England, AGD will be rooting hard against them on Thursday as they live and die with the Texans. I don't love that matchup for them, but Z's team has severely underproduced and is now down a Woodhead for the year. I'll take AGD in a low-scoring game.


This is also the weekly reminder that Ajay, AGD and Levine still need to name their divisions.

Week 1 Recap

One week down, and it's easy to overreact. While some teams that lost this week will likely keep losing (Bruno, sorry about Sammy.) and some favorites will continue their winning ways (Ajay's team looks pretty well-rounded), we also saw some strong teams take a tough L (I guess that's karma for me), and some terrible teams come away with wins (Gutman may get his only win solely due to his predatory trade). For some perspective, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garropolo and Carson Wentz won games this week, while Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck lost.

My biggest takeaway is the lack of points being scored in our league, which I think will continue. Part of this is admittedly due to the lack of kickers, but part is also due to a generally weird draft that has left some teams scrambling. Regardless of the cause, I think the solution is some sort of PPR next year. Even adding 0.5 points per reception would help increase scoring overall, and make the league less TD-dependent. This is a discussion for Winter Meetings, but it's one I'll keep bringing up over the season. Based on my experience with kickers, we should get PPR instituted in 2023.

Additional Commissioner's note before we get started: Ajay, AGD and Levine still need to send me their division names. This shit is embarrassing, especially for AGD. No one expects much creativity from Ajay, or much communication from Levine, but AGD's creativity in this league is unparalleled. Give our division some personality.


Team of the Week: Alan

Yes, Levine had the highest score. But his total was fueled by a D-Will performance that has a clear expiration date, in addition to 48(!) passes from Alex Smith. Not that I'm upset that I lost with 100+ points or anything.

Alan may have a resurgent season in him. All of the major questions for his team had positive answers in Week 1. Is Andrew Luck back? Yes. Will Melvin Gordon ever score? Yes x2. Combine that with good performances by Shady and Abdullah, as well as putting up 100+ without much from Robinson/Decker/Olsen, and Alan's team looks better than expected. Could the Muffin Man be in line for a second (first?) chef's coat?


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: Barnard starting Blount over Hurns in the Flex

He doesn't get much love on this blog, but Barnard's lucky lineup management gave him the win this week. I was surprised that he banked on a Pats RB in an unclear situation over a Jags WR in a game where they were going throw 40+ times, but it worked. That said, it was still a terrible decision-making process and you deserved to lose.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Bruno starting the Raiders D on the road vs. the Saints

While it may not be his worst roster management move of the year, I can't possibly understand the logic here. There were several better options out there (Eagles vs. Browns, Bills vs. Ravens, 49ers vs. Rams) that would have put up the 7 points required to take down Gutman. I'm not even really sure how you ended up with the Raiders D on your roster, but my recommendation is to sort the Free Agent Defenses by projected points each week and pick up the one with the highest projection. You may have blown your best chance for a win.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Weissbard putting up 37.5 points

I could have easily put Weiss benching Kelvin and setting himself up for the Hot Potato as the worst lineup decision of the week, but his matchup would have been lost regardless. I still can't understand the logic of starting White/Pryor/Sharpe over Benjamin, given that all three of them are HUGE question marks on their own, but Kelvin coming back from an ACL against the Broncos at least gives me some pause. Still a terrible decision.

That said, this team isn't a lost cause. If you're going to have a shitty week, you might as well have a REALLY shitty week, as Russell, AP and even Martellus aren't likely to have duds like that too often, especially when Charles is hurt. The rumors around Charles don't sound great, but I'm not ready to give up on Weiss yet.

Biggest Matchup of Week 2: Ajay vs. Alan

It's difficult to have a truly important Week 2 matchup, but our only battle of undefeated teams (sponsored by UPS), is at least marginally interesting. Both teams have stud QBs on the road against stout defenses, and a stable of solid RBs liable to put up anywhere between 3-20 points. Alan can jump out to an early lead with Decker and Shady squaring off on Thursday, but I like Ajay to take the W thanks to Mathews on MNF.


Final Note

I know the podcasts have been few and far between, and I'm going to try and change that based on my/all of your availability. Especially if we have a non-Bruno trade, I'm definitely going to get both sides on a podcast to discuss. But in the interim, blog posts are easier for me, so I'll be posting as much as I can. As always, if you want to guest post, let me know. Fuck you Levine.

Denver Draft Recap

After another successful draft weekend, we have some time to kill before the actual season starts. I would usually bitch about holding the draft a week early, but now that I'm commissioner, I may have forfeited my right to complain about anything. We'll see how long I can last.

As usual, I'll be assigning movie/TV/song quotes to each team along with a draft grade, as well as a couple of quotes for the non-league members who helped make draft weekend memorable. Similar to last year, there aren't a lot of quotable movies that take place in Denver. My first thought was Half Baked for obvious reasons, but after the hike I had a better idea. It might not be Denver, but it is some place warm, where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. A little place called Aspen. This year's draft grades are brought to you by Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne from Dumb & Dumber.

Lloyd Christmas: Hit me with it! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you Mary, just... The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary Swanson: Not good.
Lloyd Christmas: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary Swanson: I'd say more like one out of a million.
Lloyd Christmas: So you're telling me there's a chance.

This unfortunately goes to Bruno, who probably had the worst draft ever. I have no issue with loading up on a single position in theory, but when it's a position that only requires one starter, and is insanely deep this year, then that's a problem. Best case scenario is trading Cam for a startable RB/WR, and one of your other QBs for a flex. Even then I'm not sure you have a deep enough team to be a serious playoff threat.
Draft Grade: D-


Harry Dunne: I can't feel my f-fingers anymore, Lloyd. They're-they're numb!
Lloyd Christmas: Maybe you should wear these extra gloves. My hands are starting to get sweaty.
Harry Dunne: Extra gloves? You've had this pair of extra gloves this whole time?
Lloyd Christmas: Yeah, we're in the Rockies!

This goes to Lowe, who led us all on a frigid expedition to the North Pole while telling us to dress for the beach. The views were amazing. The wind and altitude gain were not so amazing. Nevertheless, getting this group of people up a mountain at 9am is nothing less than a miracle so kudos.


Lloyd Christmas: I'll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!
Harry Dunne: No way!
Lloyd Christmas: I'll give you three to one odds.
Harry Dunne: No.
Lloyd Christmas: Five to one.
Harry Dunne: No.
Lloyd Christmas: Ten to one?
Harry Dunne: You're on!
Lloyd Christmas: I'm gonna get ya!
Harry Dunne: Nuh uh!
Lloyd Christmas: I don't know how, but I'm gonna get ya.

This goes to Ajay, who is continuing his tradition of travelling excessively far to hit a casino on draft weekend. Ajay clearly went the depth route during the draft, and came away with a lot of value. However, there is a difference between value and quality value, and Ajay ended up with a mixed bag. The Rodgers pick was likely the steal of the draft, and I love the depth at RB as well. But in a league that's so focused on the passing game, you're painfully thin at receiver, with question marks surrounding the guys you do have. I can't argue with your previous success, but I wouldn't call you a favorite to repeat at this point.
Draft Grade: B-


Harry Dunne: I don't get it, Lloyd. She told me ten o' clock, sharp! Are you sure you went to the right bar?
Lloyd Christmas: Yep. I'm pretty sure. Lobby bar right by the lobby. Maybe she just had a change of heart.
Harry Dunne: Oh, that pisses me off! That pisses me right off! I hate when women do that. She wanted to see you again! And now no? Now... Wait a minute! Wait! She must have meant ten o' clock at night!
Lloyd Christmas: Do you think...?
Harry Dunne: Why would she have you meet her in a bar at ten in the morning?
Lloyd Christmas: I just figured she was a raging alcoholic!

I'm giving this quote to myself, as the primary reason for me getting into the Premier League this year is so that I can drink in the morning. I went for value as well in the draft, and ended up with pretty much the exact opposite team as Ajay. My receiving corps is pretty absurd, but unfortunately I can only start three of them at a time. I also ended up with the same RB duo that "led" me to a 1-8 start last year, and swapped out Jeremy Hill for Rashard Jennings and Chris Ivory. It's a virtual certainty that I'll be trading a receiver at some point, but until then my lineup decisions will be rough.
Draft Grade: B-


Lloyd Christmas: Mock
Harry Dunne: Yeah!
Lloyd Christmas: Ing
Harry Dunne: Yeah!
Lloyd Christmas: Bird
Harry Dunne: Yeah!
Lloyd Christmas: Yeah!

Harry Dunne: Yeah!

This goes to BAM, as it's the epitome of unlikely camaraderie. Ever since Marshall gave Billy a piggy back ride through Caesar's in Vegas, this duo has been an enjoyable force of nature in this league. It's also the first song in the first Video Power Hour, which I feel like these two have watched a few times. In terms of their team, I'm at a loss. The ODB bid obviously changed their process, but somehow they ended up with Zeke and no other startable RBs. I'm sure there will be weeks where Beckham and Elliott carry them, but I don't know if they'll get carried into the playoffs.
Draft Grade: C-


Harry Dunne: She gave me a bunch of crap about me not listening to her, or something. I don't know, I wasn't really paying attention.

This goes to Marco who, based on the fact that he went to draft weekend and stayed until Monday while having a three week old baby at home, probably doesn't pay very close attention to what his wife says. In terms of the draft, I actually think Marco did a very good job for his first time. Solid depth across the board (though very Dolphin heavy), even if nothing really stands out beyond A.J. Green. I can't see this team having a terrible year, and if a few things break the right way, Marco could continue FALAFEL's proud tradition of first time owners taking home the chef's coat.
Draft Grade: B


Lloyd Christmas: Hey, I guess they're right. Senior citizens, although slow and dangerous behind the wheel, can still serve a purpose. I'll be right back. Don't you go dying on me.

This goes to Zacherman, the league's elder statesman who acts 30 years older than he actually is. Whether it's supplying the league tailgate supplies (among other products), or his extremely random love of pinball machines, Z is still able to serve a purpose. Another purpose is drafting a pretty solid team. He oddly went Patriot heavy, but going big on Brady and Gronk is usually a winning bet. That duo along with Dez and Jordy should net him close to 60 each week on their own, so anything beyond that is gravy. I give this team the highest floor in the league, which isn't a bad place to be.
Draft Grade: B+


Lloyd Christmas: I got worms!
Mary Swanson: I beg your pardon?
Lloyd Christmas: That's what we're gonna call it. "I Got Worms!" We're gonna specialize in selling worm farms. You know, like ant farms.

This goes to Donny because I've legit heard him say this to people 10+ times over the years. Donny has also been dreaming about leaving the league for quite some time, and his wish has finally come true. As the first Stevens Bowl winner to quit, he's setting a dangerous precedent for others (looking at you Alan), but he is survived in Giants homerism by Bruno who can at least be happy about having Eli.


Lloyd Christmas: I'm only human, Harry! Come on! Stop being a baby. So we backtracked a tad.
Harry Dunne: A tad? A tad, Lloyd? You drove almost a sixth of the way across the country in the wrong direction! Now we don't have enough money to get to Aspen, we don't have enough money to get home, we don't have enough money to eat, we don't have enough money to sleep!

This goes to BMO, who likely had a similar conversation during the draft due to Mejia running the show with the mantra "What's another dollar?". This is a weird team, which I guess is expected. Oddly and unnecessarily deep at QB for a team that wasn't auto-drafting, along with a solid WR duo and TE. And...that's it. There is absolutely zero depth on this team at the skill positions, and given the fragility of Reed and Evans, BMO's hopes come down to Ben and Antonio. That duo is a hell of a start, but they need some teammates to compete.
Draft Grade: C-


Lloyd Christmas: Mary... I... I desperately want to make love to a schoolboy.

This goes to Barnard for obvious reasons, but also because he's at school rooming with Chip, so his wish might come true. As for his draft, he went big on RB with Todd Gurley, which history has shown us is a less than stellar idea. Outside of Jared Goff's RB, he just doesn't have a lot to be excited about. In fact, I'm not sure how he managed to spend even close to $200 on this team. Blount gets a boost thanks to Lewis going down, but Barnard deserves no credit for that. I like Fitzgerald, so I guess that's something positive.
Draft Grade: D+


Lloyd Christmas: You know why I like you Harry? Cause you're a regular guy. Yep! That's why I want you to stay regular. Once half teaspoon for fast, effective relief.

This goes to Alan, who is most certainly not a regular guy. However, maybe with a cocktail of Starbucks and Turbo Lax, he can find his own relief. Al drafted a very interesting team. I think Luck bounces back, and a deep stable of RBs is never a bad thing, but zero depth at receiver is a little bit scary. However, in a year where we don't have any "complete" teams, I think Alan will be in the mix for a playoff spot, especially if he trades well.
Draft Grade: B-


Lloyd Christmas: That's a lovely accent you have. New Jersey?
Bus Stop Beauty: Austria.
Lloyd Christmas: Austria! Well, then. G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!

Bus Stop Beauty: Let's not.

This goes to Weissbard, who busted out the Fair Lawn, NJ sweatshirt for draft weekend, and probably has a similar approach to women as Lloyd Christmas. Weiss also busted out the BAM draft strategy of going big at QB and RB, and hoping for the best elsewhere. Of all the players to bet on, I think Russell, AP and Charles are a very solid trio. However, your current starting receivers had as many catches last year as DaveO and Rob Woods did. I see a trade in your future, but the problem with going so big on three players is that to get depth, you need to trade one of them. I've felt that pain in the past, so good luck.
Draft Grade: B-

Lloyd Christmas: You're it.
Harry Dunne: You're it.
Lloyd Christmas: You're it, quitsies!
Harry Dunne: Anti-quitsies, you're it, quitsies, no anti-quitsies, no startsies!
Lloyd Christmas: You can't do that!
Harry Dunne: Can too!
Lloyd Christmas: Cannot, stamp it!
Harry Dunne: Can too, double stamp it, no erasies!
Lloyd Christmas: Cannot, triple stamp, no erasies, Touch blue make it true.
Harry Dunne: No, you can't do that... you can't triple stamp a double stamp, you can't triple stamp a double stamp! Lloyd!
Lloyd Christmas: LA LA LA LA LA LA!
Harry Dunne: LLOYD! LLOYD! LLOYD!
Joe Mentalino: GUYS! ENOUGH!

This goes to AGD, who have their own process that everyone might not agree with, but has been unquestionably successful over the years. And post draft, I really liked their team. Then the Lewis injury news broke, and even though they got James White, the team's ceiling is definitely lower. Best case for this team is waiting out the Josh Gordon suspension, then trading a receiver for more RBs. I still have faith in their ability to make the playoffs, but it's a bit shakier now than it was a few days ago.
Draft Grade: B


Lloyd Christmas: Listen, Mr. Samsonite, about the briefcase, my friend Harry and I have every intention of fully reimbursing you.
Nicholas Andre: Open it up. Open it up!
Lloyd Christmas: Go ahead, open it up. Do what he says. Hurry.
Nicholas Andre: What is this? What is this? Where's all the money?

Lloyd Christmas: That's as good as money, sir. Those are I.O.U.'s. Go ahead and add it up, every cent's accounted for. Look, see this? That's a car. 275 thou. Might wanna hang onto that one.

This goes to Gutman, who did another great job planning the weekend and keeping track of expenses (for his own bachelor party no less). He was also super pumped about his team post-draft, only to apparently have some buyer's regret less than 48 hours later. I've made it very clear that I don't think Devonta Freeman is a good football player, I don't trust Demaryius with his QB situation, and I think TY Hilton is one-dimensional. Having said that, Tyrod is fun, Ingram should be very solid, and Diggs is a nice sleeper. This team doesn't scare me, but it's not trash either.
Draft Grade: C+


Harry Dunne: That was genius, Lloyd, sheer genius. I mean where did you come up with a scam like that?
Lloyd Christmas: Saw it in a movie once.
Harry Dunne: That's incredible! So what happened, so the guy tricks some sucker into picking up his tab and gets away with it scott free?
Lloyd Christmas: No, in the movie, they catch up to him half mile down the road and slit his throat!
Harry Dunne: [Stares at Lloyd in disbelief. The speed of the engine increases]

Lloyd Christmas: Ha ha ha! It was a good one.

This goes to Esco, who's strategy of searching for value over studs has started to be mimicked by other teams in the league. This forced him to go a little above his preferred price range for guys like Doug Martin and Brandon Marshall. But he still found value with Keenan Allen (who I love) and Alshon Jeffrey, giving him a very solid core. If anything, Esco's biggest weakness other than QB (Cutler, really?), is oddly his depth, which is a situation he's not accustomed to. I assume he has a trade or two ahead of him, and will be in the playoff mix all year.
Draft Grade: B-


Sea Bass: What the hell? Who's the dead man that hit me with the salt shaker?
Harry Dunne: Well, it was a terrible mistake, sir. Oh, please believe me, I would never do anything to offend a man of your size.
Sea Bass Friend: Kick his ass, Sea Bass!
Sea Bass: You gonna eat that?
Harry Dunne: What, that? No, yes, no. Well, no, I-I crossed my mind, yeah?
Sea Bass: Still want it?
Harry Dunne: Nah, you go ahead.

This goes to our former commish and resident asshole, Nick. I'm mainly pissed at him for leaving the league, but this also applies to his apparent treatment of an innocent pizza cashier. Against all odds, he was actually a solid commissioner, so I can only hope to fill his shoes the same way Goodell did for Tagliabue.


Lloyd Christmas: We got no food, we got no jobs... our PETS' HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!

This goes to Levine, who was improbably the first league member to go to the ER during draft weekend. As predicted, I look at Levine's roster and think "Solid, but not spectacular." Like Esco  you're going to need to upgrade at QB, but I like your overall roster better, especially once Bell comes back. There's the right mix of quality starters and upside bench players, that I'll go ahead and make you (along with Z) one of my two playoff locks. Last year I assigned that praise to Ajay and myself after the draft. One out of two ain't bad.
Draft Grade: B+


Final Grades:
Levine: B+
Zacherman: B+
AGD: B
Marco: B
Alan: B-
Ajay: B-
Esco: B-
Kumpf: B-
Weissbard: B-
Gutman: C+
BAM: C-
BMO: C-
Barnard: D+
Bruno: D-

As you can see, I don't think we have any truly dominant teams, but a lot of teams that will be very competitive. This was the weirdest draft I can remember in terms of teams going big on a certain position (for better or worse), which has led to some very lopsided rosters. I'm hoping this, along with some preseason injuries, lead to more trades this year. Two weeks til kickoff!