Baltimore Draft Recap

Hopefully we're all recovered from what was unquestionably the weirdest draft weekend we've ever had. The house alone provided us with a lack of doors and ceilings, a pig getting slaughtered every time the A/C turned on, mandatory wall leaping if we wanted to get inside, and the human train wreck known as Nancy. I honestly enjoyed Baltimore more than I expected to (thanks Gut), but that doesn't change the fact that I'm giving out draft grades using quotes from The Wire.

Continuing the theme of weirdness, the draft itself was completely unpredictable. Due to the continued success of teams like Levine, Esco and Ajay by forgoing studs and looking for deeper squads, there was a shit ton of value for the best players. This caused pretty much everyone to change their strategy on the fly, no one more so than...

Levine
Cutty: Game done changed.
Slim Charles: Game's the same, just got more fierce.
The most shocking thing I saw all weekend was how shook Levine was after Weissbard maliciously dumped a beer on his laptop. Our defending champ is usually the picture of tranquility during the draft, but having to repeatedly change computers led to some uncharacteristic picks from Levine. I really like Julio this year, but him and Davante for $97 left Levine with a lot of question marks at RB. I'm fine with Mixon, but the RB2 options are extremely shaky, and paying more for AP than Belfer paid for Dion Lewis is not likely to pay off. The ceiling here is still high if everything breaks right, but I'm not as high on my rival as I usually am.
Best Pick: Matt Stafford for $4
Worst Pick: Adrian Peterson for $16
Grade: C+

Alan
Bunk: Boy, them Greeks and those twisted-ass names.
McNulty: Man, back off the Greeks. They invented civilization.
Bunk: Yeah? Ass-fucking, too.
I really missed seeing Alan in his chef's hat, but missing a draft during your wedding year has become somewhat of a tradition, even if said wedding is in January. Hopefully Greece was amazing, because this team is not. McCaffrey and McKinnon could both have great years, but I'm not spending $91 to find out. I like the Mariota/Jameis QB combo, but after that I don't see anything reliable on a week-to-week basis. I've been wrong on Alan before, but I don't think this is one of those years.
Best Pick: Jerick McKinnon for $38 (Not my favorite player, but good value)
Worst Pick: Tarik Cohen for $18
Grade: C-

Kumpf
Bunk: That will teach you to give a fuck when it ain't your turn to give a fuck.
For nine years I've tried to not blackout during the draft, and for nine years I've failed. This was the first year I actually succeeded, and it's also the least I've ever like my team leaving the draft. Spending my last $6 on a backup QB when I got disconnected from the internet was bad luck, but even the picks I did make don't get me excited. I do think it's a solid team with a lot of good value, especially at WR, but I will absolutely be blacking out next year.
Best Pick: Chris Thompson for $5
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $6
Grade: B-

Reap
Omar: A man gotta have a code.
The most iconic mantra in The Wire is apparently something Reap has never heard of. As most of us are aware, Reap offered to trade Billy a runningback if he snorted a line of Old Bay seasoning off the table at the crab dinner. Billy immediately agreed, and they even settled on Lamar Miller as said RB. Then Reap got cold feet and changed the bet to stipulate that the line had to be off Marshall's ass. Billy immediately agreed again (Marshall's consent is up for debate), and then Reap backed off completely. Absolutely despicable behavior by Reap. As for his draft, I really like his starters, but depth will be an issue if injuries pop up. And given the bad karma he earned this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if Omar's coming for David Johnson.
Best Pick: David Johnson for $64
Worst Pick: Lamar Miller for $32
Grade: B

Bennett
D'Angelo: Where's Wallace? Where the fuck is Wallace? Huh? Huh? String? String? Look at me! Where the fuck is Wallace? HUH!? 
Where was Bennett??? There is a well established forgiveness for missing the draft if you get married that year. There is also a lesser level of forgiveness for school and work conflicts, even if your job is as worthless as being a weatherman. However, this is the first time that someone has just decided to take a fucking vacation and miss the draft. It's been the same weekend in 9 of the last 10 years, schedule your leisure trips accordingly. Also your team is absolute dogshit.
Best Pick: Nelson Agholor for $3
Worst Pick: LeSean McCoy for $44 
Grade: D+

Barnard
Clay Davis: SHIIIIIT
Speaking of dogshit. I actually think everyone is being too hard on Barnard. Yes, his team is not good. But he only spent $184 on it, so when you think about it...nah still sucks. Fournette for $60 is a massive overpay even before you consider than that Gurleys and Bells of the world also went in the $60s. Stocking a team with white receivers and heavy RBs is a bold strategy, but it seems like a year after being immune to taking shots before the draft, next year Barnard might not have a choice.
Best Pick: Greg Olsen for $7
Worst Pick: Leonard Fournette for $60
Grade: D-

Weissbard
Omar: Ayo, lesson here, Bey. You come at the king, you best not miss.
Speaking of bold strategies (all about segues today), Weissbard dumping a beer on Levine's computer may have swayed the league this year. I'm not about to suggest that the last place team should dump a beer on the champ's computer every year, but I'm not not saying that. Considering he was several shots deep, drafted half his team from his phone, and has never had any fantasy success in his life, I kind of like Weissbard's team. Two of the top seven RBs, Deshaun, some interesting bargain basement WRs (other than $3 on Decker), I can see a playoff team here. Of course, if either Gurley or Saquan gets hurt, this will take a turn real quick, but I think Fireball Dan should be the new standard on draft day.
Best Pick: Todd Gurley for $69
Worst Pick: Eric Decker for $3
Grade: B

Lowe and Mueller
Freamon: I don't wanna go to no dance unless I can rub some tit.
Thanks as always to the non-league members for adding to our numbers. Glad you guys got to rub some tit.

Zacherman
Bubbles: How y'all do what y'all do every day and not wanna get high?
Giving Bubbles to Zacherman was the most obvious choice of this process, and Z did not disappoint this year either. We even got some inexplicable videos of frogs. Never change Z. His draft was one of the two where I kept being jealous every time he got a player. He didn't get any amazing values, but I also see no real overpays either. That usually bodes well for the team in question, and I think a squad this deep is going to compete every week.
Best Pick: Carlos Hyde for $10
Worst Pick: Corey Clement for $6
Grade: B

Donny
Proposition Joe: Fool, if it wasn’t for Sergei here, you and your cuz both would be cadaverous motherfuckers.
Hey cuz.

BAM
McNulty: You know why I respect you so much, Bunk?
Bunk: Mm-mmm.
McNulty: It's not 'cause you're good police, 'cause, y'know, fuck that, right?
Bunk: Mm. Fuck that, yeah.
McNulty: It's not 'cause when I came to homicide, you taught me all kinds of cool shit about . . . well, whatever.
Bunk: Mm. Whatever.
McNulty: It's 'cause when it came time for you to fuck me . . . you were very gentle.
Bunk: You damn right.
McNulty: See, 'cause you could have hauled me out of the garage and just bent me over the hood of a radio car, and . . . no, you were, you were very gentle.
Bunk: I knew it was your first time. I wanted to make that shit special.
McNulty: It was, man. It fucking was.
I obviously had to pair my two favorite interracial duos, and after taking the Christmas Card picture, I found this quote extremely appropriate (note: they didn't actually fuck). As usual, this team went big on a few studs, but in a twist, they didn't include any RBs. I have no idea what their plan is at that position (though they are owed Lamar Miller), but they are pretty stacked everywhere else. On a side note, Billy and Marshall are short list for draft weekend MVPs. I don't think their collective BAC dropped below .3 from the moment they set foot in Charm City.
Best Pick: Russell Wilson for $13
Worst Pick: Jamaal Williams for $10
Grade: B-

Gutman
Freamon: We're building something, here, detective, we're building it from scratch. All the pieces matter.
This is the other team that I was consistently jealous of, and all the pieces do indeed matter. Gutman put together a squad that is above average at every position, has a mix of upside and high-floor players, and even includes an always fun QB to WR connection. It's going to be very interesting to see if Gutman can manage to not fuck this up, especially when he'll be a father by Week 5. Given his team name, he's not off to a good start.
Best Pick: Michael Crabtree for $9
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $49
Grade: A

Marco
Bunk: All night you been drinkin' like your ass is candy. I want to how how do you do it.
This quote should be self-explanatory. Marco is also in the running for draft weekend MVP, and his team doesn't hurt his cause at all. He drafted a total of three players that cost more than $3. That's absolutely batshit crazy and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I'm going to assume not well, but he's got a lot of upside receivers, so I'm honestly most concerned about QB and TE. Godspeed sir.
Best Pick: Chris Godwin for $1
Worst Pick: Melvin Gordon for $57
Grade: C

Ajay
McNulty: I gotta ask ya: if every time Snot Boogie would grab the money and run away, why'd you even let him in the game?
Man On Stoop: What?
McNulty: If Snot Boogie always stole the money, why'd you let him play?
Man On Stoop: Got to. This America, man.
I don't know why but this made me think of Ajay. Probably because the Man On Stoop says such a nonsensical statement with absolute confidence and conviction. Ajay obviously didn't intend on drafting LeVeon, and I feel like he was as confused as I was for the rest of the draft. The values he got weren't bad by any means, but I don't really love any of the players. Bell can win games on his own, and I feel like Ajay is going to need him to a few times this year.
Best Pick: LeVeon Bell for $68
Worst Pick: Jordan Wilkins for $8
Grade: B-

Belfer
Slim Charles: Yeah, now, well, the thing about the old days: they the old days.
For the first 8 years of this league, Belfer and Reap were a well respected duo who had considerable success. Over that time I don't think I was alone in assuming that Belfer was the primary owner, likely because he was (way) more outspoken on the listserve. In their first year apart, neither team did well, but after another draft, I'm now thinking that Reap may have been the brains of the operation. I don't hate this team, I just feel like it's below average at most spots outside of Brown and maybe Evans. I don't think that spells a playoff birth.
Best Pick: Sony Michel for $5
Worst Pick: Mike Williams for $7
Grade: C

Esco
Marlo: You want it to be one way.
Security Guard: Man, STOP! Stop, sayin' that.
Marlo: But it's the other way.
This quote could apply to the whole draft, but I'm giving it to Esco because he was basically the Security Guard here when he won Aaron Rodgers. He bounced back better than Ajay, Levine and I did, and he still managed to get both high-level talent and significant depth. I like Gutman's team slightly more, but that might be because I had such low expectations going in. A repeat Stevens Bowl appearance would not be a shock here.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $20
Worst Pick: Aaron Jones for $10
Grade: A-

Overall Grades:
Gutman: A
Esco: A-
Reap: B
Weissbard: B
Zacherman: B
Ajay: B-
BAM: B-
Kumpf: B-
Levine: C+
Belfer: C
Marco: C
Alan: C-
Bennett: D+
Barnard: D-

Based on the grades, we could have a Gutman vs. Esco Stevens Bowl, but Weissbard is shockingly within reach as well. Levine also drafted an amazing division, as one of us might make the playoffs at 5-8. I'll leave you all with the last line in the series, as well as the way all of us felt Sunday morning.
McNulty: Let's go home.

Gambling Corner - Week of 8/27

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/29
Giants (-102) vs. D-Backs - Loss
9/1
White Sox (+150) vs. Red Sox - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018 Record: 26-40 (-9.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

Through September, my MLB Win Total bets fell off a bit. I'm 15/29 overall on projections, and 10/17 on my actual bets.

EPL Bets (Spread)
Leicester City (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
West Ham (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Cardiff (+1) vs. Arsenal - Push
Burnley (+1) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Watford (+1) vs. Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 4-5-2 (-1.84 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Huddersfield (+600) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-3 (+0.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Northwestern (+1) at Purdue - Win
Wake Forest (-6) at Tulane - Push
Western Michigan (+5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
Stanford (-14) vs. San Diego State - Win
Maryland (+14) vs. Texas - Win
Tennessee (+10) vs. West Virginia (Neutral Site) - Loss
Washington (+3) vs. Auburn (Neutral Site) - Loss
Notre Dame (-1) vs. Michigan - Win
Louisville (+25) vs. Alabama (Neutral Site) - Loss
2018 Record: 4-4-1 (-0.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

Rivalry Week 2018

The results are in, and they are extremely interesting. I'll dive into some detailed analysis in a minute, but first here are the Rivalry Week 2018 matchups, in descending order based on the combined ratings:

1 (tie). Alan vs. Barnard - 14.0 points - The Disrespect Bowl
1 (tie). Belfer vs. Reap - 14.0 points - The Scorned Lovers Bowl
3. Gutman vs. Marco - 13.0 points - The Dad Bowl
4. Esco vs. Weissbard - 12.5 points - The Halloween Prank Bowl
5. BAM vs. Bennett - 12.0 points - The Tag Team Bowl
6. Ajay vs. Zacherman - 11.0 points - The AARP Bowl
7. Kumpf vs. Levine - 10.5 points - The Joking Rivalry That Somehow Became A Real Rivalry And Oh Yeah We're Sharing A Queen Bed In Baltimore Bowl

Here is the raw data:

Each row is that team's submission, with the rankings multiplied by 10 to give more weight to the higher rated matchups. The bolded numbers at the bottom sum up each the rankings given to each team, so the higher the number, the higher weight that team was given overall. Looking closer at those numbers specifically, here is the breakdown per team, normalized to the actual ranking they were given and removing the 1 point placeholder for ranking yourself:

1. Barnard - 10.00

2. Weissbard - 9.92

3. Gutman - 8.77

4. Reap - 8.46

5. Belfer - 8.23

6. Kumpf - 8.15

7. Alan - 8.08

8. Bennett - 8.00

9. Marco - 7.69

10 (tie). Levine - 7.31

10 (tie). Zacherman - 7.31

12. Esco - 7.23

13. Ajay - 6.62

14. BAM - 6.23

Now for my analysis:

• Throughout this entire process, Barnard continually assumed that one of myself, Weissbard or Alan would be the most desirable matchup. The fact that he averaged a top-5 matchup could not be more hilarious.
• Barnard/Alan and Belfer/Reap were the only two matchups that both listed themselves as top rivals. Given the absurd process it took to split up Belfer and Reap, including a clause that doesn't allow them to meet in the playoffs before the Stevens Bowl, I'm a little bit surprised they chose each other for this.
• The only person who appears to have ranked rivals strictly in terms of how easy that team would be to play is Levine, that sly son of a bitch. In related news, Levine is also the only person who didn't get to face off with one of his top 5 rivals. Maybe if the champ stuck with the spirit of this exercise, he would be happier with his matchup.
• In terms of standard deviation, Alan was surprisingly the most polarizing team, with 5 people rating him in their top five, and 6 people rating him in their bottom five. On the extremes, Barnard was a top five matchup for 9 teams, and BAM was bottom five for 8 teams. 
• The single most frequent rating was a tie with 4 teams rating Ajay as their 12th biggest rival, BAM as their 13th biggest rival, and Zacherman as their 8th biggest rival. I don't know what that means, but I found it interesting.
• The average ranking per team lines up pretty well with the PAA outlined in my Season Preview, with a couple of exceptions. Ajay and BAM "jumped" a tier into the least desirable rivals from tier 2. My guess here is that the league really thinks that Ajay is the toughest matchup, while no one hates Billy or Marshall enough to want them as a rival. Alan jumped two tiers, which is a little bit confusing to me, but given his standard deviation it seems like some people are wary of another title run for Eli. And on the flip side, Barnard fell two tiers because literally no one is scared of him.

Overall, I think this worked out pretty well, and the rivalries make as much sense as they possibly can. I will update the schedule accordingly this week. I thoroughly enjoyed this process, and while I may have ended up with the most difficult rival, I welcome the challenge and I won't let Levine get one good night's sleep in Baltimore. See you all in a few days.

Gambling Corner - Week of 8/20

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/22
Reds (+210) at Brewers - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018 Record: 26-38 (-7.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 0-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 2-3-1 (-1.30 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (+200) at Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-2 (+1.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Gambling Corner - Week of 8/13

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/19
Padres (+175) vs. D-Backs - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2018 Record: 26-37 (-6.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Cardiff (Pick) vs. Newcastle - Push
Burnley (Pick) vs. Watford - Loss
Crystal Palace (+1) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 2-3-1 (-1.30 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Southampton (+345) at Everton - Loss
Arsenal (+335) at Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-1 (-0.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

2018 Season Preview

The historical records are updated, the background picture has been changed to reflect our current champ, and fantasy magazines are hitting the shelves - it's time for FALAFEL's 10th season. In the list serve, we're continuing with the Room Draft and then we'll move into the Rivalry Week Draft, but here on the blog we're focused on some advanced fantasy analytics. As usual this post can be used as a de facto cheat sheet for the Division Draft between Levine, Esco and Marco, but there will be plenty of disrespect thrown around for the rest of you as well.

FALAFEL Team Power Rankings

The historical records have been updated on the sidebar, and for those who only care about wins and losses, here are our fun facts for this year:

• Marco's consistently above average performance in his first two years moves him into first place over Joseph, which at least keeps an active league member in that spot.
• Zacherman was the biggest climber thanks to his stellar regular season, but he tends to put up clunkers every now and then, so we'll see if he can build on his performance from last year.
• Levine and BAM have the exact same record through their 4 years together, but Levine's got the chef coat as bragging rights (Billy's Stevens Bowl win was as a solo act).
• After 9 years, Ajay, Barnard, Esco and I are within 2.5 games of each other, and I feel like half of these teams make the playoffs each year while the other half fall apart miserably.
• The bottom tier of teams with a large sample size are Gutman, Alan, Bennett and Weissbard, and other than Alan's random Eli-esque years, those seem like a good bet for the first four Division Draft picks.
• I've covered this ad nauseum, but Belfer and Reap clearly missed each other last year. I don't consider their combining to win as many games as I did last year as a true representation of their talent. That said, if either of them stays below Weissbard after this year, I'm rethinking things.

However, the point of this post is not to just look at records. As always, I've put together PAA (Points Above Average) to look at the cumulative quality of each team in comparison to league average for the years they were active. Here are the results updated through 2017:

Some thoughts:

• Levine's (and to a lesser extent Marco's) dominance is even more apparent here. Averaging a performance that's 100 points better than league average over four years is a Warriors-type run.
• As I mentioned last year, 6 of the top 7 active teams in PAA made the playoffs, so the predictive power of this stat seems to hold up.
• Alan is my favorite team here because he's so far below all the active teams who've played multiple years, but he's won two titles. I'll never understand his performance, but I'll never rule him out.
• Both Weissbard and Alan are below Long in this metric which is never a good sign. Belfer and Reap need to make significant strides this year to not be in the same boat.
• Bruno's one season was just astonishingly terrible. Thanks again to Belfer and Reap for agreeing to split up and save us from that type of situation.

And here are my Division Draft tiers:

• Tier 1: Levine (Captain), Marco (Captain), Esco (Captain), Zacherman
• Tier 2: Ajay, BAM, Kumpf, Barnard
• Tier 3: Bennett, Reap, Gutman, Belfer,
• Tier 4: Alan, Weissbard

Overall points scored for those who are interested:

Next post will be the results of the Rivalry Week Draft. Football!

Gambling Corner - Week of 8/6

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/8
Reds (+175) at Mets - Loss
A's (+140) vs. Dodgers - Win
8/11
Rockies (+120) vs. Dodgers - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 26-36 (-5.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Watford (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Arsenal (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
2018-19 Spread Record: 2-1 (+0.70 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (+105) at Newcastle - Win
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-0 (+1.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Gambling Corner - Week of 7/30

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/2
Cubs (-175) vs. Padres - Loss
8/3
Angels (+225) at Indians - Win
Giants (+195) at D-Backs - Loss
8/4
Angels (+215) at Indians - Loss
Blue Jays (+205) at Mariners - Win
8/5
Mets (+113) vs. Braves - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 24-35 (-7.00) units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

After August, MLB Win Total Projections are on pace for 17/29, with my bets at 11/17.