NFL Bets
Bills (+3) at Texans - Push
Patriots (-5) vs. Titans - Loss
Saints (-8) vs. Vikings - Loss
Eagles (+3) vs. Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 43-37-4 (-1.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Kentucky (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Kansas State (+3) vs. Navy - Push
Wyoming (-7) vs. Georgia State - Win
Georgia (-5) vs. Baylor - Win
Indiana (+3) vs. Tennessee - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 60-45-2 (+6.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Clippers (-10.5) vs. Grizzlies - Loss
Cavs (+6.5) vs. Thunder - Loss
Celtics (+1.5) at Bulls - Win
Warriors (+3) vs. Pistons - Loss
Last Week: 0-2-1
2019 Record: 14-16-2 (-4.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Wichita State (-7.5) vs. Mississippi - Win
Auburn (-1) at Mississippi State - Win
North Carolina (-7) vs. Georgia Tech - Loss
Duke (-10) at Miami - Win
Baylor (-9) vs. Texas - Win
San Diego State (+3) at Utah State - Win
Last Week: 0-3
2019-20 Record: 17-15 (+0.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Watford (+0.5) vs. Wolves - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) at West Ham - Loss
Arsenal (Pick) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 38-33-11 (-2.20 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Chelsea (Even) at Brighton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+205) at Norwich - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 18-12 (+1.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Monday, December 30, 2019
Friday, December 27, 2019
Stevens Bowl Recap
Big congrats to Gutman, who has already asked about changing his team name so we don't have yet another penis reference on a piece of chef's attire. But the rules are the rules, and the name you rock during the season is what goes on the coat. Gut's close win caps an incredible playoffs where every matchup ended up within 15 points and Alan and Barnard were the only teams that failed to break 100.
Nick's presumed retirement will likely need to yet another AGD split, which puts us in a bit of a pickle for next year's division captains. We can either have AGD choose among themselves to determine who was more responsible for their season, or we can reward them for not only their success, but their willingness to split up for the good of the league, and let them both be division captains. This is a conversation for Winter Meetings, but something I wanted to bring up regardless.
Before moving into the offseason, I want to take one last look at 2019, and review the 5 reasons that Gutman is the champ:
5. Trading Vance McDonald for Jacob Hollister
Hollister wasn't a stud by any means, but he did outscore Vance by 6.5 in the Stevens Bowl week, which would have flipped the result from a win to a loss by 0.3. Yes, Gut may have added someone like Goedert, but Vance had a seemingly nice matchup and Gut may not have wanted multiple Eagles going in an important game, so there is no guarantee he would have handled this differently.
4. Drafting Dak Prescott for $4
Any Champion will have their share of good draft picks, but Gut went heavy on studs, limiting the chances for value. Dak was one of the lone exceptions, drafted as a tie for the 13th most expensive QB and finishing as QB4. He was cheaper than guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, and despite a lackluster Stevens Bowl, he carried Gut early in the year as the rest of his roster had yet to coalesce.
3. Esco terribly mismanaging his lineup in the semi-finals
Any Champion also needs their share of luck, and Gutman benefited from Esco's brutal semi-final lineup decisions. It's easy to nitpick roster decisions in a close matchup (I've been doing it in this space for over a decade), but Esco had 7 decisions he could have made differently that would have led to a Chef's hat for himself given his performance this past week.
2. Holding on to Miles Sanders all season
Gutman's pick of Sanders for $12 was my favorite pick he made during the draft, but god damn if it took a while to pay off. Sanders got inconsistent touches throughout the regular season, and only had three TDs all season heading into Week 15. He then exploded for 56.3 points over the next two weeks, carrying Gut's team across the finish line. I don't think anyone would have straight up dropped Sanders, but starting him over more established names like Amari Cooper, or another seemingly high upside rookie like Hollywood Brown was huge down the stretch.
1. Adding Davante Parker and riding him in the playoffs
None of the moves above come anywhere close to both the waiver add of Parker after Week 6, as well as starting him over Cooper the last two weeks. Starting with the waiver add, Gutman bid $9, which gave him Parker over Nick, who bid $4 (Billy also bid $0). This adds another insult to injury for Nick, who had Parker earlier in the season but dropped him for the immortal Darren Fells, thereby costing himself the Stevens Bowl. Back to Gut, he went against all the rankings and feedback in Week 15 to start Parker, then rode the hot hand instead of emotionally hedging with Cooper in Week 16. Last week I called it the single best lineup decision in FALAFEL history. This week, I call it the stuff of champions.
Final MotW Record: 10-9
I'll keep posting gambling stuff during the offseason, but FALAFEL content will likely go on hold until Winter Meetings and Draft Location madness in the spring.
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/23
NFL Bets
Lions (+13) vs. Packers - Win
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers - Win
Eagles (-4.5) at Giants - Win
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders - Loss
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019 Record: 43-36-3 (+1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech - Loss
Michigan State (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Win
Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force - Loss
Notre Dame (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Ohio State (+2) vs. Clemson - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 56-45-1 (+2.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-9) vs. Grizzlies - Push
Warriors (+11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Raptors (-4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 13-13-2 (-2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin - Loss
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky - Loss
Ohio State (-6.5) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 12-14 (-3.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Newcastle (+1.5) at Manchester United - Loss
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Watford - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2019-20 Record: 36-32-11 (-2.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Norwich - Win
Chelsea (-275) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 18-10 (+3.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Nick's presumed retirement will likely need to yet another AGD split, which puts us in a bit of a pickle for next year's division captains. We can either have AGD choose among themselves to determine who was more responsible for their season, or we can reward them for not only their success, but their willingness to split up for the good of the league, and let them both be division captains. This is a conversation for Winter Meetings, but something I wanted to bring up regardless.
Before moving into the offseason, I want to take one last look at 2019, and review the 5 reasons that Gutman is the champ:
5. Trading Vance McDonald for Jacob Hollister
Hollister wasn't a stud by any means, but he did outscore Vance by 6.5 in the Stevens Bowl week, which would have flipped the result from a win to a loss by 0.3. Yes, Gut may have added someone like Goedert, but Vance had a seemingly nice matchup and Gut may not have wanted multiple Eagles going in an important game, so there is no guarantee he would have handled this differently.
4. Drafting Dak Prescott for $4
Any Champion will have their share of good draft picks, but Gut went heavy on studs, limiting the chances for value. Dak was one of the lone exceptions, drafted as a tie for the 13th most expensive QB and finishing as QB4. He was cheaper than guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, and despite a lackluster Stevens Bowl, he carried Gut early in the year as the rest of his roster had yet to coalesce.
3. Esco terribly mismanaging his lineup in the semi-finals
Any Champion also needs their share of luck, and Gutman benefited from Esco's brutal semi-final lineup decisions. It's easy to nitpick roster decisions in a close matchup (I've been doing it in this space for over a decade), but Esco had 7 decisions he could have made differently that would have led to a Chef's hat for himself given his performance this past week.
2. Holding on to Miles Sanders all season
Gutman's pick of Sanders for $12 was my favorite pick he made during the draft, but god damn if it took a while to pay off. Sanders got inconsistent touches throughout the regular season, and only had three TDs all season heading into Week 15. He then exploded for 56.3 points over the next two weeks, carrying Gut's team across the finish line. I don't think anyone would have straight up dropped Sanders, but starting him over more established names like Amari Cooper, or another seemingly high upside rookie like Hollywood Brown was huge down the stretch.
1. Adding Davante Parker and riding him in the playoffs
None of the moves above come anywhere close to both the waiver add of Parker after Week 6, as well as starting him over Cooper the last two weeks. Starting with the waiver add, Gutman bid $9, which gave him Parker over Nick, who bid $4 (Billy also bid $0). This adds another insult to injury for Nick, who had Parker earlier in the season but dropped him for the immortal Darren Fells, thereby costing himself the Stevens Bowl. Back to Gut, he went against all the rankings and feedback in Week 15 to start Parker, then rode the hot hand instead of emotionally hedging with Cooper in Week 16. Last week I called it the single best lineup decision in FALAFEL history. This week, I call it the stuff of champions.
Final MotW Record: 10-9
I'll keep posting gambling stuff during the offseason, but FALAFEL content will likely go on hold until Winter Meetings and Draft Location madness in the spring.
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/23
NFL Bets
Lions (+13) vs. Packers - Win
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers - Win
Eagles (-4.5) at Giants - Win
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders - Loss
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019 Record: 43-36-3 (+1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech - Loss
Michigan State (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Win
Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force - Loss
Notre Dame (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Ohio State (+2) vs. Clemson - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 56-45-1 (+2.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-9) vs. Grizzlies - Push
Warriors (+11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Raptors (-4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 13-13-2 (-2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin - Loss
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky - Loss
Ohio State (-6.5) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 12-14 (-3.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Newcastle (+1.5) at Manchester United - Loss
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Watford - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2019-20 Record: 36-32-11 (-2.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Norwich - Win
Chelsea (-275) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 18-10 (+3.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Stevens Bowl Preview
Before we get to the matchup of the week, we need to revisit the Matchup of the Decade. In the 210 team games played so far this year, it featured the 1st and 4th most points. In the 690 games in the last three years since we moved to half point PPR, it featured the 1st and 6th most points (side note: I have three of those top 6 point totals...and 1 playoff win). Neither of us played our ideal lineup, though injuries to Dalvin and Godwin heavily influenced that. And Gutman starting Davante Parker over Amari Cooper may have been the best lineup decision in FALAFEL history.
That said, let's take a look at how Karma had its say. In Week 13, I benched Dalvin and Lockett, costing myself the matchup with Barnard and $50. In that game, Dalvin immediately got hurt and Lockett was shut out. The following week, while avoiding a potential loss to Esco, I beat Alan but got a goose egg from Alshon, who got injured for the rest of the year, and Jameis broke a bone in his throwing hand. Had Alshon been healthy, I likely would have started him over Lockett, who responded with a big game, but in turn I lost both Godwin and Dalvin mid-game, which likely cost me the matchup. Karma is indeed real, and it is vicious.
Moving on...
Belfer! Gutman! Reap? Mara! It's the Stevens Bowl!
Quarterbacks:
Two top five QBs, two pretty easy matchups, both with their #1 receiver on the same roster. This position should lead the fireworks of the matchup. If I'm AGD, I'm a little bit scared that the Texans (and Perriman) lead off the week on Saturday afternoon. It's an unnatural time for an NFL game, despite the Texans always playing their playoff games in that time slot. Maybe familiarity will work to Watson's benefit, but this one will be close. I'm leaning towards AGD simply because the weather should be nicer.
Slight Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
Carson and Fournette are the studs, but the Chubb/Hunt dynamic is super interesting here. Baltimore is a solid defense, and I'm not sure how Hot Seat Freddie will deploy his RBs. You have to assume the Browns will be passing to catch up, which sounds like a Hunt game, but you can never rule out Chubb breaking a long one. I'll take the ceiling of Carson and Chubb here.
Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers:
Hopkins is the best WR this side of Mike Thomas, but Watson has been spreading the ball out a lot more with Fuller and Stills healthy, so I actually think Julio's target share makes him the top WR in this matchup. A.J. Brown and Davante Parker are shockingly top 15 options and pretty much the only reason these teams are in the Stevens Bowl. I still think Gutman should be starting Amari here, but I'll cover that in the Flex section. Overall this position is half high-floor studs and half insane variance. Too close to call.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
AGD currently has Higbee over Andrews, which is curious to me, but either way they have a definite edge over Hollister.
Big Edge: AGD
Flex:
This is where the chef's coat or hats will be decided. AGD had enough auction dollars left to guarantee themselves Perriman, which I assume is the reason why Gutman didn't bid at all (either that or he has no idea what he's doing and put up 160+ on me in the semi-finals based entirely on luck, which I cannot accept). Perriman is absolutely not a safe start, and him and Brown could combine to score anywhere from 5-60 points, but I like starting him over LeVeon or Washington after seeing what Gutman's team can do. For Gutman, this is as hard as it gets. Miles Sanders, coming off a Stevens Bowl berth-winning performance, going up against the Cowboys, or Amari Cooper, coming off an up and down month, and going against Gutman's Eagles. We all know what Bennett would do, but does Gut have the balls to start Amari here? I think it's a relative toss up, but guessing wrong will be devastating. All that said, Gut's options are safer than AGD's.
Slight Edge: Gutman
D/ST:
AGD's Ravens are the clear winner here, and I'm not really sure what Gutman is gonna do. I don't love going up against Tannehill (what a wild sentence), or trust the ATL defense. Looking at the wire, I might actually go with the Skins here, but it likely won't matter.
Edge: AGD
Overall:
The playoffs have really been a lot of fun this year. The largest margin of victory is shockingly me vs. Gutman (albeit by 0.1 points), which just shows how competitive things have been. I expect nothing different from the Stevens Bowl, which means I really have to throw all that hard-hitting analysis above out the window and ask myself, what is easier to picture? I would absolutely love to see Gutman's face as Weissbard gets on a stepstool and puts a chef's coat on him, but AGD with chef hats on their dicks is in play as well. To me, the easiest thing to picture is Miles Sanders fumbling away the Eagles' playoff hopes as Amari torches a terrible Philly secondary. Sorry Gut.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 10-8
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/16
NFL Bets
Bucs (+3) vs. Texans - Push
Panthers (+7) at Colts - Loss
Bengals (+1) at Dolphins - Loss
Giants (+3) at Redskins - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 40-34-3 (+0.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State - Loss
San Diego State (-3) vs. Central Michigan - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 54-43-1 (+3.99 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+5.5) vs. Kings - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 13-11-1 (-0.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Creighton - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
2019-20 Record: 12-11 (-0.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Burnley - Loss
Sheffield (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Leicester City (+1.5) at Manchester City - Loss
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 33-27-11 (-0.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
That said, let's take a look at how Karma had its say. In Week 13, I benched Dalvin and Lockett, costing myself the matchup with Barnard and $50. In that game, Dalvin immediately got hurt and Lockett was shut out. The following week, while avoiding a potential loss to Esco, I beat Alan but got a goose egg from Alshon, who got injured for the rest of the year, and Jameis broke a bone in his throwing hand. Had Alshon been healthy, I likely would have started him over Lockett, who responded with a big game, but in turn I lost both Godwin and Dalvin mid-game, which likely cost me the matchup. Karma is indeed real, and it is vicious.
Moving on...
Belfer! Gutman! Reap? Mara! It's the Stevens Bowl!
Quarterbacks:
Two top five QBs, two pretty easy matchups, both with their #1 receiver on the same roster. This position should lead the fireworks of the matchup. If I'm AGD, I'm a little bit scared that the Texans (and Perriman) lead off the week on Saturday afternoon. It's an unnatural time for an NFL game, despite the Texans always playing their playoff games in that time slot. Maybe familiarity will work to Watson's benefit, but this one will be close. I'm leaning towards AGD simply because the weather should be nicer.
Slight Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
Carson and Fournette are the studs, but the Chubb/Hunt dynamic is super interesting here. Baltimore is a solid defense, and I'm not sure how Hot Seat Freddie will deploy his RBs. You have to assume the Browns will be passing to catch up, which sounds like a Hunt game, but you can never rule out Chubb breaking a long one. I'll take the ceiling of Carson and Chubb here.
Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers:
Hopkins is the best WR this side of Mike Thomas, but Watson has been spreading the ball out a lot more with Fuller and Stills healthy, so I actually think Julio's target share makes him the top WR in this matchup. A.J. Brown and Davante Parker are shockingly top 15 options and pretty much the only reason these teams are in the Stevens Bowl. I still think Gutman should be starting Amari here, but I'll cover that in the Flex section. Overall this position is half high-floor studs and half insane variance. Too close to call.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
AGD currently has Higbee over Andrews, which is curious to me, but either way they have a definite edge over Hollister.
Big Edge: AGD
Flex:
This is where the chef's coat or hats will be decided. AGD had enough auction dollars left to guarantee themselves Perriman, which I assume is the reason why Gutman didn't bid at all (either that or he has no idea what he's doing and put up 160+ on me in the semi-finals based entirely on luck, which I cannot accept). Perriman is absolutely not a safe start, and him and Brown could combine to score anywhere from 5-60 points, but I like starting him over LeVeon or Washington after seeing what Gutman's team can do. For Gutman, this is as hard as it gets. Miles Sanders, coming off a Stevens Bowl berth-winning performance, going up against the Cowboys, or Amari Cooper, coming off an up and down month, and going against Gutman's Eagles. We all know what Bennett would do, but does Gut have the balls to start Amari here? I think it's a relative toss up, but guessing wrong will be devastating. All that said, Gut's options are safer than AGD's.
Slight Edge: Gutman
D/ST:
AGD's Ravens are the clear winner here, and I'm not really sure what Gutman is gonna do. I don't love going up against Tannehill (what a wild sentence), or trust the ATL defense. Looking at the wire, I might actually go with the Skins here, but it likely won't matter.
Edge: AGD
Overall:
The playoffs have really been a lot of fun this year. The largest margin of victory is shockingly me vs. Gutman (albeit by 0.1 points), which just shows how competitive things have been. I expect nothing different from the Stevens Bowl, which means I really have to throw all that hard-hitting analysis above out the window and ask myself, what is easier to picture? I would absolutely love to see Gutman's face as Weissbard gets on a stepstool and puts a chef's coat on him, but AGD with chef hats on their dicks is in play as well. To me, the easiest thing to picture is Miles Sanders fumbling away the Eagles' playoff hopes as Amari torches a terrible Philly secondary. Sorry Gut.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 10-8
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/16
NFL Bets
Bucs (+3) vs. Texans - Push
Panthers (+7) at Colts - Loss
Bengals (+1) at Dolphins - Loss
Giants (+3) at Redskins - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 40-34-3 (+0.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State - Loss
San Diego State (-3) vs. Central Michigan - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 54-43-1 (+3.99 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Hornets (+5.5) vs. Kings - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 13-11-1 (-0.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Creighton - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
2019-20 Record: 12-11 (-0.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Burnley - Loss
Sheffield (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Leicester City (+1.5) at Manchester City - Loss
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 33-27-11 (-0.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Second Round Preview
The playoffs started with a bang. Enormous games from Jameis and Ekeler drove one matchup, while the difference in the other matchup came down entirely to the Tight End position. Injuries also dominated the week, with each remaining team affected one way or another. Losing Mike Evans is rough for AGD, but probably benefits me with Godwin (unsure how it will affect Jamies, who may not even notice). I lost Alshon, which could help Gutman with Agholor. Gut gets a huge bump for Carson with Penny going down, but loses Davante Parker, who surprisingly led him to the bye. Esco was affected the least, but Jared Cook's concussion will make the TE position a question mark because he plays on MNF. Fun times all around.
As a side note, while my tanking efforts were entirely to keep Nick out of the playoffs and avoid AGD until the Stevens Bowl, it had the side effect of giving me Alan in the first round. That proved to be important, as I would have lost to Esco if I played it straight. Karma took Alshon away from me, but it has unquestionably validated my decision so far. Keep it coming!
On to the breakdowns.
Matchup 1 - AGD vs. Esco
Quarterbacks:
While Josh Allen has done a shockingly good job of replacing Cam's production and style, the matchup against Pitt is not a good one. His legs should keep him in the double digits, but I don't see him approaching 20. Unfortunately for Esco, 20 is probably the floor for Watson in what should be an unexpected shootout against the Titans.
Big Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
The RB position is probably the weakest position overall in this matchup, though there is some upside. Fournette is the only stud, but the Jags have looked like garbage the last few weeks. He gets a juicy matchup against Oakland, but if they fall behind that caps his ceiling. Esco's Ingram/Lindsay duo also has good matchups but their workload is extremely inconsistent week-to-week. And while AGD currently has Hunt as their RB2 and Leveon as Flex, I'm putting Bell in this section to make things even. I don't expect him to do much against the stout Ravens defense, but his workload (especially with half PPR) gives him a decent floor. Honestly, the range of outcomes here is far too large to make a choice.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Kudos to AGD for grabbing and holding onto AJ Brown, who steps in as a nice boom/bust replacement for Evans (who had a very boom/bust season himself). Adding Brown to Hopkins will make that AFC South matchup an extremely important one for this FALAFEL matchup, and has the potential for 40+ points at WR for AGD. On the other side, Esco also has some extremely nice matchups for Mike Thomas and Golladay (who no longer has to worry about Marvin stealing endzone targets), so his ceiling is equally as high. This should be a fun position no matter what, but I'm leaning towards Esco just because Brown isn't as consistent as the other three studs.
Slight Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Injuries are playing a huge role here, so while the matchup is currently Cook vs. Higbee, it could end up as Howard vs. Andrews, or any combination of the four. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Cook the most, followed closely by both Andrews and Higbee, with Howard bringing up the rear. Given the MNF game for Cook, and the dropoff to Howard, I'm going with AGD based on the information we have now.
Slight Edge: AGD
Flex:
Kareem Hunt vs. Stefon Diggs is quite the matchup. Both guys have the potential to lose touches to someone in their same position group, but they have relatively nice matchups, so it's another huge range of outcomes position. I can certainly see a world where Hunt has 15+ touches and a TD or two, but Diggs is going to have the higher floor most of the time.
Slight Edge: Esco
D/ST:
Esco gets to choose between a Chiefs team that can't stop the run against Denver, and a Vikings team that can't stop the pass against the Chargers. He has KC in right now, and while I agree with that choice, it likely won't matter with AGD's Ravens facing the Jets on TNF.
Big Edge: AGD
Overall:
A dominant AGD team all season looks as vulnerable now as they have since the draft. A late surging Esco team is solid across the board other than one-week blips at QB and TE. This is going to be a high scoring matchup where either team could break 120 easily. AGD has the higher ceiling, but the floor for Hunt, Bell, Brown, and whoever starts at TE is scary. Esco has the higher floor, but tough matchups for Josh Allen, the potential return of Thielen, and his own TE injury drama limits his ceiling. I'm extremely torn here, but weird shit happens in the playoffs, so I'm going with the "safer" option.
Pick: Esco
Matchup 2 - Gutman vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Jameis is truly a one-man roller coaster ride, but his upside has been enough to make him a weekly stud over the last month. And while he gets an easy matchup against Detroit, he literally fractured a bone in his throwing hand which won't help his "accuracy." Dak has been equally as inconsistent, just with a higher floor and lower ceiling. The Rams seem to have potentially figured things out on defense recently, so I'm going entirely based on the opposing defense here.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks/Flex:
This is the studfest of this matchup. Cook, Barkley, Carson, and Chubb are arguably four of the top 6 RBs this week as their workload and matchups are all excellent. Chubb may lose touches to Hunt, and Cook may still be banged up, but I expect all of these guys to approach or exceed 20 points. The flex position is also included in here and if either Mostert or Sanders has big day, they could swing the entire matchup. Having said all that, I would be throwing a dart if I tried to make a choice here.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Godwin has the best situation here here, but Julio and Amari can easily match his output. The Jameis/Godwin and Dak/Amari combos could lead to some huge point totals if they connect for TDs, and will go a long way towards determining who wins overall. My WR2 situation is less than ideal, with Lockett borderline unstartable, a boom/bust Mike Williams, and the potential for Thielen's return. I honestly don't know who I'm going to start right now, but it probably won't matter either way.
Edge: Gutman
Tight End:
In theory, this position is the biggest single edge in the entire matchup. However, I traded Hollister to Gutman for one subpar week of Vance McDonald, and if Karma is going to come back to bite me this week, this is where it will happen. Not something I'm willing to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
Big Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Gutman has been riding with the Saints for a while, but after last week, he has to feel a little bit rattled. The Colts aren't an elite offense, but they're also not likely to commit multiple turnovers, limiting the floor and ceiling for NOLA. I still haven't made my choice between the Packers and Giants, but each one is probably about the same as the Saints. I doubt there is much of a difference here no matter who I go with,
Edge: Even
Overall:
Another extremely tough choice. If Jameis was fully healthy, I think the connection with Godwin against the Lions would be enough for me to make myself a clear favorite. But his injury (again: to his throwing hand), and Carson's improved situation makes this one essentially a toss up. Last week I didn't think Karma would come back to bite me, but this week, I have the Hollister situation and a number of tough lineup choices that increases the odds that I fuck myself. Given that the rest of our players are done before SNF, I think the Saints make a big play on MNF to give Gutman the win.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 9-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/9
NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-10) at Bengals - Win
Jaguars (+7) at Raiders - Win
Vikings (-1.5) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019 Record: 39-32-2 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-10.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 12-11-1 (-1.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgetown (-3) vs. Syracuse - Win
Seton Hall (-2.5) at Rutgers - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7) at Houston - Win
Ohio State (-8) at Minnesota - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 12-10 (+0.92 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+2) at Chelsea - Win
Wolves (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Arsenal (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 31-23-11 (+2.43 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Crystal Palace (+155) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Lyon (Pick) vs. RB Leipzig - Push
Club Brugge (+0.5) vs. Real Madrid - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Shahktar (+155) vs. Atalanta - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
As a side note, while my tanking efforts were entirely to keep Nick out of the playoffs and avoid AGD until the Stevens Bowl, it had the side effect of giving me Alan in the first round. That proved to be important, as I would have lost to Esco if I played it straight. Karma took Alshon away from me, but it has unquestionably validated my decision so far. Keep it coming!
On to the breakdowns.
Matchup 1 - AGD vs. Esco
Quarterbacks:
While Josh Allen has done a shockingly good job of replacing Cam's production and style, the matchup against Pitt is not a good one. His legs should keep him in the double digits, but I don't see him approaching 20. Unfortunately for Esco, 20 is probably the floor for Watson in what should be an unexpected shootout against the Titans.
Big Edge: AGD
Runningbacks:
The RB position is probably the weakest position overall in this matchup, though there is some upside. Fournette is the only stud, but the Jags have looked like garbage the last few weeks. He gets a juicy matchup against Oakland, but if they fall behind that caps his ceiling. Esco's Ingram/Lindsay duo also has good matchups but their workload is extremely inconsistent week-to-week. And while AGD currently has Hunt as their RB2 and Leveon as Flex, I'm putting Bell in this section to make things even. I don't expect him to do much against the stout Ravens defense, but his workload (especially with half PPR) gives him a decent floor. Honestly, the range of outcomes here is far too large to make a choice.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Kudos to AGD for grabbing and holding onto AJ Brown, who steps in as a nice boom/bust replacement for Evans (who had a very boom/bust season himself). Adding Brown to Hopkins will make that AFC South matchup an extremely important one for this FALAFEL matchup, and has the potential for 40+ points at WR for AGD. On the other side, Esco also has some extremely nice matchups for Mike Thomas and Golladay (who no longer has to worry about Marvin stealing endzone targets), so his ceiling is equally as high. This should be a fun position no matter what, but I'm leaning towards Esco just because Brown isn't as consistent as the other three studs.
Slight Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Injuries are playing a huge role here, so while the matchup is currently Cook vs. Higbee, it could end up as Howard vs. Andrews, or any combination of the four. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Cook the most, followed closely by both Andrews and Higbee, with Howard bringing up the rear. Given the MNF game for Cook, and the dropoff to Howard, I'm going with AGD based on the information we have now.
Slight Edge: AGD
Flex:
Kareem Hunt vs. Stefon Diggs is quite the matchup. Both guys have the potential to lose touches to someone in their same position group, but they have relatively nice matchups, so it's another huge range of outcomes position. I can certainly see a world where Hunt has 15+ touches and a TD or two, but Diggs is going to have the higher floor most of the time.
Slight Edge: Esco
D/ST:
Esco gets to choose between a Chiefs team that can't stop the run against Denver, and a Vikings team that can't stop the pass against the Chargers. He has KC in right now, and while I agree with that choice, it likely won't matter with AGD's Ravens facing the Jets on TNF.
Big Edge: AGD
Overall:
A dominant AGD team all season looks as vulnerable now as they have since the draft. A late surging Esco team is solid across the board other than one-week blips at QB and TE. This is going to be a high scoring matchup where either team could break 120 easily. AGD has the higher ceiling, but the floor for Hunt, Bell, Brown, and whoever starts at TE is scary. Esco has the higher floor, but tough matchups for Josh Allen, the potential return of Thielen, and his own TE injury drama limits his ceiling. I'm extremely torn here, but weird shit happens in the playoffs, so I'm going with the "safer" option.
Pick: Esco
Matchup 2 - Gutman vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Jameis is truly a one-man roller coaster ride, but his upside has been enough to make him a weekly stud over the last month. And while he gets an easy matchup against Detroit, he literally fractured a bone in his throwing hand which won't help his "accuracy." Dak has been equally as inconsistent, just with a higher floor and lower ceiling. The Rams seem to have potentially figured things out on defense recently, so I'm going entirely based on the opposing defense here.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks/Flex:
This is the studfest of this matchup. Cook, Barkley, Carson, and Chubb are arguably four of the top 6 RBs this week as their workload and matchups are all excellent. Chubb may lose touches to Hunt, and Cook may still be banged up, but I expect all of these guys to approach or exceed 20 points. The flex position is also included in here and if either Mostert or Sanders has big day, they could swing the entire matchup. Having said all that, I would be throwing a dart if I tried to make a choice here.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Godwin has the best situation here here, but Julio and Amari can easily match his output. The Jameis/Godwin and Dak/Amari combos could lead to some huge point totals if they connect for TDs, and will go a long way towards determining who wins overall. My WR2 situation is less than ideal, with Lockett borderline unstartable, a boom/bust Mike Williams, and the potential for Thielen's return. I honestly don't know who I'm going to start right now, but it probably won't matter either way.
Edge: Gutman
Tight End:
In theory, this position is the biggest single edge in the entire matchup. However, I traded Hollister to Gutman for one subpar week of Vance McDonald, and if Karma is going to come back to bite me this week, this is where it will happen. Not something I'm willing to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
Big Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Gutman has been riding with the Saints for a while, but after last week, he has to feel a little bit rattled. The Colts aren't an elite offense, but they're also not likely to commit multiple turnovers, limiting the floor and ceiling for NOLA. I still haven't made my choice between the Packers and Giants, but each one is probably about the same as the Saints. I doubt there is much of a difference here no matter who I go with,
Edge: Even
Overall:
Another extremely tough choice. If Jameis was fully healthy, I think the connection with Godwin against the Lions would be enough for me to make myself a clear favorite. But his injury (again: to his throwing hand), and Carson's improved situation makes this one essentially a toss up. Last week I didn't think Karma would come back to bite me, but this week, I have the Hollister situation and a number of tough lineup choices that increases the odds that I fuck myself. Given that the rest of our players are done before SNF, I think the Saints make a big play on MNF to give Gutman the win.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 9-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/9
NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-10) at Bengals - Win
Jaguars (+7) at Raiders - Win
Vikings (-1.5) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019 Record: 39-32-2 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Nuggets (-10.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 12-11-1 (-1.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgetown (-3) vs. Syracuse - Win
Seton Hall (-2.5) at Rutgers - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7) at Houston - Win
Ohio State (-8) at Minnesota - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 12-10 (+0.92 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+2) at Chelsea - Win
Wolves (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Arsenal (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 31-23-11 (+2.43 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Crystal Palace (+155) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Lyon (Pick) vs. RB Leipzig - Push
Club Brugge (+0.5) vs. Real Madrid - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Shahktar (+155) vs. Atalanta - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Thursday, December 5, 2019
First Round Preview
Well that was an eventful week. Bennett shocked Levine, Ajay somehow avoided Shot Spot, AGD put Nick on the brink, and I sold my soul for a better chance at a chef's coat. FALAFEL at its finest if you ask me.
That leaves us with six teams vying for either their first chef's coat (Barnard, Gutman, me), a chef's hat (AGD, Esco), or an oven mitt (Alan). AGD and Gut can sit back and watch the carnage this week, but it's time to break down each matchup Dr. Z style.
Matchup 1 - Alan vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Relying on Jameis to not shit the bed has me admittedly nervous, but his ceiling is unquestionably high. The hardest part for Alan is picking between Rodgers and Cousins. Rodgers is the safe bet, but could be in a situation where the Packers blow out the Skins and stop passing. Kirk theoretically could be in the same boat against the Lions, but Dalvin's injury might complicate things. Either way Alan wins here, but I wouldn't want to make the choice he's facing.
Edge: Alan
Runningbacks:
I have to admit that Alan's success this year with his motley crew of RBs has been shocking. Unfortunately for him, there is once again not a clear cut lineup decision. Murray is relatively easy to bench against San Fran, but picking between Monty, Ekeler, and RoJo won't be easy. Ordinarily, Alan's choice here wouldn't matter against my dynamic duo, but Dalvin is banged up and Saquon has looked mortal. I'm dreading a re-injury situation for Dalvin, but with Eli back in the saddle I can easily see 10+ checkdowns for Barkley. I'm still ahead here, but not nearly as much as it looks on paper.
Edge: Kumpf
Wide Receivers:
This is where the matchup will be decided. Davante has the same potential blowout issue as Rodgers, but he's been lights out the last couple of weeks. Courtland Sutton is low-key one of the best draft picks this year, but he's also dealing with Drew Lock. Godwin is boom/bust, and Lockett is coming off a goose egg, so I'm not in much better shape. Either team could have their top two receivers combine for 50 or fail to break 15.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
Another close matchup here. Kelce and Kittle are likely the top two TEs in any given week, so picking between them is basically a coin flip. Kittle has the better matchup, but the Pats D has looked mediocre or worse against actual NFL offenses, so it's not that simple. I think Kittle is safer assuming Belichick doubles Kelce, but this is too close to call.
Edge: Even
Flex:
If I win this week, it will be because I chose the correct flex. Between a healthy Alshon against the Giants on MNF, a recovering Thielen against the Lions, and a boom/bust James Washington catching balls from Duck, there are a lot of factors to consider. I'm likely picking between Thielen and Alshon, and while I would love to have two guys on MNF, the late-scratch possibility is real with Jeffrey. Extremely high ceiling/low floor situation here. Alan currently has Cole Beasley in this spot, and while he could swap in Latavius or RoJo, he has a 5-15 point range compared to my 0-25 point range. I'd rather have my situation, but only barely.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Both the Packers and Browns are mediocre defenses playing bottom five offenses. And while Dalton and the Skins running game both looked good last week, I can't picture that happening again. No clear leader here.
Edge: Even
Overall:
This was a much more even matchup than I expected. ESPN is currently favoring me by over 15, but I'm pretty sure they have favored me in every matchup this season, and I wound up below .500 (albeit with a Week 13 tank). I think my team is more talented on paper, and has slightly better matchups, but injuries and recently poor performances have me a little worried. That's all before getting into the karma discussion, where I'm sorely lacking and Alan has a natural lead even before that. However, while I fully expect my MNF decision last week to come back to bite me at some point, I don't think it happens this week, and I get my first FALAFEL playoff victory.
Pick: Kumpf
Matchup 2 - Esco vs. Barnard
Quarterbacks:
Barnard's hope in this matchup overall hinges on how well the Indy passing game does against Tampa Bay. In theory, it's a great matchup that could yield huge days for Brisket and TY (if he plays). I don't love needing that huge day, but it's certainly in play. On the flip side, Josh Allen gets a formidable and opportunistic Baltimore D, which will likely lead to multiple turnovers. I still think the Bills have enough success to make this one close, but the opposing defenses make the choice for me here.
Slight Edge: Barnard
Runningbacks/Flex:
Pretty shocking that these RB groups made the playoffs. The Kansas City rush defense has been exploitable for most of the season, which should benefit Barnard with Sony, but could also lead to second straight big day for James White if the Pats fall behind and run a lot of draws/screens. Those two basically cancel each other out, and while I like Freeman the most out of the rest, I like Scarborough the least, making this essentially a wash overall.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Mike Thomas revenge game! The one true stud in this matchup gets a tough San Fran secondary, albeit one with a banged up Richard Sherman. That may limit the ceiling for Thomas, as does the presence of David Blough for Golladay against a leaky Vikings defense, but I still like Esco's odds here. Ridley and Edelman isn't a terrible combo, but it would look nicer with a healthy TY (and a lot nicer with Michael Thomas). Barring a medical miracle in Indy, this is pretty straightforward.
Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Meh. Cook has been better, but gets a rough matchup, while it's shocking that Graham is still rostered despite his better matchup. Flip a coin.
Edge: Even
D/ST:
I'm not sure if it's blind homerism, or the perceived lack of better options, but I can't honestly believe Barnard is going to roll out a defense facing Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, especially because they have looked like shit against the two good offenses they've faced this year. Unless he makes a change, either one of Esco's defenses should own this matchup.
Edge: Esco
Overall:
Barnard's mere presence in the playoffs is controversial enough, and while I know he feels awkward about how it happened, he is still holding out some hope for a miracle run. The only way I see that happening is if TY plays and the Colts break 40 in Tampa. Right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so I have to go with the team that has a higher ceiling and a higher floor.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 7-7 (Gave myself a win for picking myself over Barnard. Tanking doesn't affect pick accuracy, says the guy who tanked and tracks pick accuracy.)
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/2
NFL Bets
Browns (-7) vs. Bengals - Win
49ers (+3) at Saints - Win
Colts (+3) at Bucs - Push
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Eagles (-9.5) vs. Giants - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 36-31-2 (-0.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Georgia (+7) vs. LSU - Loss
Wisconsin (+17) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Last Week: 0-2
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
The Good
Hawks under 34
Nets under 43.5
Mavericks over 41.5
T-Wolves over 35.5
Thunder over 32.5
Suns over 29.5
Blazers under 46.5
Spurs under 45.5
Jazz under 53.5
The Bad
Pacers under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Grizzlies over 26.5
The Ugly
Bulls over 33.5
Lakers under 50.5
Bucks under 57.5
NCAAB Bets
Butler (-4) vs. Florida - Win
Ohio State (-7) vs. Penn State - Win
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
West Virginia (-3.5) at St. John's - Loss
Wake Forest (+5) vs. NC State - Loss
Indiana (Pick) at Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland (-11) vs. Illinois - Loss
Georgetown (+4) at SMU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-8 (+1.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Aston Villa (+1.5) at Chelsea - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Win
Burnley (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Bournemouth (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 30-21-11 (+3.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 17-8 (+4.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
That leaves us with six teams vying for either their first chef's coat (Barnard, Gutman, me), a chef's hat (AGD, Esco), or an oven mitt (Alan). AGD and Gut can sit back and watch the carnage this week, but it's time to break down each matchup Dr. Z style.
Matchup 1 - Alan vs. Kumpf
Quarterbacks:
Relying on Jameis to not shit the bed has me admittedly nervous, but his ceiling is unquestionably high. The hardest part for Alan is picking between Rodgers and Cousins. Rodgers is the safe bet, but could be in a situation where the Packers blow out the Skins and stop passing. Kirk theoretically could be in the same boat against the Lions, but Dalvin's injury might complicate things. Either way Alan wins here, but I wouldn't want to make the choice he's facing.
Edge: Alan
Runningbacks:
I have to admit that Alan's success this year with his motley crew of RBs has been shocking. Unfortunately for him, there is once again not a clear cut lineup decision. Murray is relatively easy to bench against San Fran, but picking between Monty, Ekeler, and RoJo won't be easy. Ordinarily, Alan's choice here wouldn't matter against my dynamic duo, but Dalvin is banged up and Saquon has looked mortal. I'm dreading a re-injury situation for Dalvin, but with Eli back in the saddle I can easily see 10+ checkdowns for Barkley. I'm still ahead here, but not nearly as much as it looks on paper.
Edge: Kumpf
Wide Receivers:
This is where the matchup will be decided. Davante has the same potential blowout issue as Rodgers, but he's been lights out the last couple of weeks. Courtland Sutton is low-key one of the best draft picks this year, but he's also dealing with Drew Lock. Godwin is boom/bust, and Lockett is coming off a goose egg, so I'm not in much better shape. Either team could have their top two receivers combine for 50 or fail to break 15.
Edge: Even
Tight End:
Another close matchup here. Kelce and Kittle are likely the top two TEs in any given week, so picking between them is basically a coin flip. Kittle has the better matchup, but the Pats D has looked mediocre or worse against actual NFL offenses, so it's not that simple. I think Kittle is safer assuming Belichick doubles Kelce, but this is too close to call.
Edge: Even
Flex:
If I win this week, it will be because I chose the correct flex. Between a healthy Alshon against the Giants on MNF, a recovering Thielen against the Lions, and a boom/bust James Washington catching balls from Duck, there are a lot of factors to consider. I'm likely picking between Thielen and Alshon, and while I would love to have two guys on MNF, the late-scratch possibility is real with Jeffrey. Extremely high ceiling/low floor situation here. Alan currently has Cole Beasley in this spot, and while he could swap in Latavius or RoJo, he has a 5-15 point range compared to my 0-25 point range. I'd rather have my situation, but only barely.
Slight Edge: Kumpf
D/ST:
Both the Packers and Browns are mediocre defenses playing bottom five offenses. And while Dalton and the Skins running game both looked good last week, I can't picture that happening again. No clear leader here.
Edge: Even
Overall:
This was a much more even matchup than I expected. ESPN is currently favoring me by over 15, but I'm pretty sure they have favored me in every matchup this season, and I wound up below .500 (albeit with a Week 13 tank). I think my team is more talented on paper, and has slightly better matchups, but injuries and recently poor performances have me a little worried. That's all before getting into the karma discussion, where I'm sorely lacking and Alan has a natural lead even before that. However, while I fully expect my MNF decision last week to come back to bite me at some point, I don't think it happens this week, and I get my first FALAFEL playoff victory.
Pick: Kumpf
Matchup 2 - Esco vs. Barnard
Quarterbacks:
Barnard's hope in this matchup overall hinges on how well the Indy passing game does against Tampa Bay. In theory, it's a great matchup that could yield huge days for Brisket and TY (if he plays). I don't love needing that huge day, but it's certainly in play. On the flip side, Josh Allen gets a formidable and opportunistic Baltimore D, which will likely lead to multiple turnovers. I still think the Bills have enough success to make this one close, but the opposing defenses make the choice for me here.
Slight Edge: Barnard
Runningbacks/Flex:
Pretty shocking that these RB groups made the playoffs. The Kansas City rush defense has been exploitable for most of the season, which should benefit Barnard with Sony, but could also lead to second straight big day for James White if the Pats fall behind and run a lot of draws/screens. Those two basically cancel each other out, and while I like Freeman the most out of the rest, I like Scarborough the least, making this essentially a wash overall.
Edge: Even
Wide Receivers:
Mike Thomas revenge game! The one true stud in this matchup gets a tough San Fran secondary, albeit one with a banged up Richard Sherman. That may limit the ceiling for Thomas, as does the presence of David Blough for Golladay against a leaky Vikings defense, but I still like Esco's odds here. Ridley and Edelman isn't a terrible combo, but it would look nicer with a healthy TY (and a lot nicer with Michael Thomas). Barring a medical miracle in Indy, this is pretty straightforward.
Edge: Esco
Tight End:
Meh. Cook has been better, but gets a rough matchup, while it's shocking that Graham is still rostered despite his better matchup. Flip a coin.
Edge: Even
D/ST:
I'm not sure if it's blind homerism, or the perceived lack of better options, but I can't honestly believe Barnard is going to roll out a defense facing Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, especially because they have looked like shit against the two good offenses they've faced this year. Unless he makes a change, either one of Esco's defenses should own this matchup.
Edge: Esco
Overall:
Barnard's mere presence in the playoffs is controversial enough, and while I know he feels awkward about how it happened, he is still holding out some hope for a miracle run. The only way I see that happening is if TY plays and the Colts break 40 in Tampa. Right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so I have to go with the team that has a higher ceiling and a higher floor.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 7-7 (Gave myself a win for picking myself over Barnard. Tanking doesn't affect pick accuracy, says the guy who tanked and tracks pick accuracy.)
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/2
NFL Bets
Browns (-7) vs. Bengals - Win
49ers (+3) at Saints - Win
Colts (+3) at Bucs - Push
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Eagles (-9.5) vs. Giants - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 36-31-2 (-0.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Georgia (+7) vs. LSU - Loss
Wisconsin (+17) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Last Week: 0-2
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
The Good
Hawks under 34
Nets under 43.5
Mavericks over 41.5
T-Wolves over 35.5
Thunder over 32.5
Suns over 29.5
Blazers under 46.5
Spurs under 45.5
Jazz under 53.5
The Bad
Pacers under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Grizzlies over 26.5
The Ugly
Bulls over 33.5
Lakers under 50.5
Bucks under 57.5
NCAAB Bets
Butler (-4) vs. Florida - Win
Ohio State (-7) vs. Penn State - Win
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
West Virginia (-3.5) at St. John's - Loss
Wake Forest (+5) vs. NC State - Loss
Indiana (Pick) at Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland (-11) vs. Illinois - Loss
Georgetown (+4) at SMU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-8 (+1.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Aston Villa (+1.5) at Chelsea - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Win
Burnley (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Bournemouth (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 30-21-11 (+3.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 17-8 (+4.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Week 12 Recap
Ooooh boy! Other than Esco beating Barnard, Week 12 gave us pretty much maximum chaos. If we accept that one team can only make up 50 points on another team in a given week, then we still have 9 teams alive for the 6 playoff spots heading into Week 13 (sorry Marco). Not to mention other items up for grabs, including bye weeks, seeding, and an actual Shot Spot Bowl. And all of that is before we get to Rivalry Week, with $50 on the line in each matchup and and $150 for the weekly high score. All of this will go down with no NFL teams on a bye and three Thursday games. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.
This week's post will focus entirely on the playoffs, so buckle up.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Esco (bye) - Zacherman Division Champ
3. Nick - Wild Card 1
4. Levine - Levine Division Champ
5. Gutman - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot
Week 12 Scenarios/Power Rankings (including point differentials from nearest potential tiebreakers)
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Clinched the playoffs, a bye, and the Regular Season Best Record prize. That doesn't mean they get to relax in Week 13 though, as they face Nick with a lot of potential implications. Is it better to beat Nick, and likely push him into the NiJo spot (or out of the playoffs entirely) to allow for someone like Alan or Barnard a better shot at a Wild Card? Or should they lose to Nick on purpose, clinch him a playoff spot, and open the door for Weissbard to make moves? I think a win is probably the better situation for them, but we'll see if Belfer agrees.
2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6)(+37 on Nick, +53 on Levine)
One of the bigger one-week turnarounds in recent memory has given me a 37 point lead in the race for the NiJo spot. I can still win the division if I beat Barnard, Bennett beats Levine, and Billy beats Alan. I can also win a Wild Card if I beat Barnard, and at least three of Gutman, Nick, Levine, and Alan lose.
3. Gutman (Last Week: 2)(-31 on Nick, -15 on Levine, +25 on Weissbard, +28 on Alan, +50 on Esco)
The potential for collapse is real here, as Gutman could go from a bye to missing the playoffs entirely. If Gutman beats Marco, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Alan all win, and Alan outscores Gutman by 28. He can also get a bye if he wins, Esco loses, and Levine, Nick, and Alan all either lose, or end up with less points in a win. If Gutman loses, he needs Levine, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to outscore Levine by 15 without getting outscored by 28 by Alan.
4. Levine (Last Week: 3)(-53 on Kumpf, -16 on Nick, +15 on Gutman, +40 on Weissbard, +44 on Alan)
Can win the division by winning or by losing and having Alan lose as well (44 point difference between them is unlikely to be overcome in one week). Can also get a bye if he wins and Esco loses, while Nick either loses or Levine passes him in points. If Levine wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Nick, Gutman, and Alan all win and pass him in points. If Levine loses, he needs Gutman, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to hold his points lead over Gutman and Alan.
5. Esco (Last Week: 4)(-50 on Gutman, -25 on Weissbard, -22 on Alan)
This might be the most under the radar run to a bye in recent FALAFEL history. If Esco wins, he gets to rest until Week 15, no questions asked. If he loses, shit gets wild. He can still win the division if Nick loses, but he won't be able to make up the 80 point differential if Nick wins. The only way Esco misses the playoffs is if he loses, and three of Alan, Levine, Gutman, and Nick win.
6. Nick (Last Week: 5)(-37 on Nick, +16 on Levine, +31 on Gutman)
Nick's record is finally starting to reflect his team's performance this season, ironically right as that performance is starting to suffer. He can win the division if he beats AGD and Esco loses. If Nick loses, he still has a couple of playoff paths. He can get a Wild Card if myself as well as three of Gutman, Barnard, Alan, and Levine lose, and can get the NiJo spot if I win and Alan and Levine lose, as long as he doesn't blow his points lead to Levine or Gutman.
7. Alan (Last Week: 7)(-44 on Levine, -28 on Gutman, -3 on Weissbard, +22 on Esco)
Like Gutman, Alan has a wide range of outcomes. He can get a bye with a win, an Esco loss, and either Levine/Gutman losses, or wins where Alan outscores them by 43 and 28. If Alan wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Gutman also win without Alan making up his point differential on any of them. If Alan loses, he needs, Levine, Gutman, and Nick to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to make up his point differential on one of Nick/Levine/Gutman.
8. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)(-40 on Levine, -25 on Gutman, +3 on Alan, +25 on Esco)
Weissbard's only shot is the NiJo spot, and he won't be able to make up the points needed to get ahead of me or Nick. His paths all involve me and Nick winning, and Gutman and Alan losing. He is helped out further if Esco loses (giving Nick a path to the division) and/or Levine wins (removing him from NiJo spot consideration), but he can get in if those do not happen. The biggest hurdle outside of those items will be outscoring Gutman by 25 without getting outscored by 3 by Alan.
9. Marco (Last Week: 9)
He's 80 points behind the lowest playoff contender, and even if he passes Esco, it won't matter. His two year playoff streak is over.
10. Billy (Last Week: 10)
A team that looked so promising after the draft and couldn't recover from a terrible trade, an old QB, and an extreme lack of depth.
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Another multi-year playoff streak over, this team got it together far too late.
12. Barnard (Last Week: 12)
To complete his improbably playoff run, Barnard needs beat me, have Gutman and/or Nick lose, and have Alan and/or Levine lose. He won't win a tiebreaker with anyone, so I can eliminate him by just winning. The way this season has gone, I think we know how this will turn out.
13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
Another completely unremarkable season for Bennett, other than his refusal to pay any of his debts.
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
It's been a long 4 years since that chef's hat.
Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Kumpf
Considering all the playoff stakes that are undecided, it's pretty shocking that this is the only game that really has relevance to both teams. A high scoring loss might actually be the best case scenario for me, as I would potentially let a terrible Barnard team into the playoffs while theoretically avoiding AGD until the finals. But nothing is guaranteed, so both teams need to put up points. On paper, only one of us will. I have a pretty clear advantage at every single position other than D/ST, and it's very easy to see the Packers putting up more points against Danny Nickels than the Pats against Houston. But on paper, my team should have at least 10 wins, so this will likely be much closer than it looks. Regardless, reverse JuJu doesn't work when it's too obvious, and this matchup should be over before I even get to roll out Dalvin (and maybe Thielen?) on MNF.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 6-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/25
NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) vs. Browns - Win
Packers (-7) at Giants - Win
Jets (-3) at Bengals - Loss
49ers (+7) at Ravens - Win
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders - Win
Patriots (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Vikings (+3) at Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 34-29-1 (+0.36 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NFL Win Total Bets
Already Won
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5
Already Lost
Bengals over 6
49ers under 8
Looking Good
Bears under 9
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5
Looking Bad
Packers under 9.5
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5
TBD
Lions over 6.5
NCAAF Bets
Virginia (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Iowa (-6) at Nebraska - Loss
Alabama (-4) at Auburn - Loss
Baylor (-14) at Kansas - Win
NC State (+10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Oklahoma State (+13) vs. Oklahoma - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 51-41-1 (+3.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Celtics (-6.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Bulls (+1) vs. Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
BYU (+1.5) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site) - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 7-3 (+3.33 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Newcastle (+2) vs. Manchester City - Win
Bournemouth (+1.5) at Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 27-17-11 (+4.81 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-500) vs. Brighton - Win
Leicester City (-150) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 16-8 (+3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Club Brugge (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Dinamo Zagreb (+1) at Atalanta - Loss
Red Star (+2) vs. Bayern Munich - Loss
Barcelona (-1) vs. Dortmund - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Juventus (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
This week's post will focus entirely on the playoffs, so buckle up.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Esco (bye) - Zacherman Division Champ
3. Nick - Wild Card 1
4. Levine - Levine Division Champ
5. Gutman - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot
Week 12 Scenarios/Power Rankings (including point differentials from nearest potential tiebreakers)
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Clinched the playoffs, a bye, and the Regular Season Best Record prize. That doesn't mean they get to relax in Week 13 though, as they face Nick with a lot of potential implications. Is it better to beat Nick, and likely push him into the NiJo spot (or out of the playoffs entirely) to allow for someone like Alan or Barnard a better shot at a Wild Card? Or should they lose to Nick on purpose, clinch him a playoff spot, and open the door for Weissbard to make moves? I think a win is probably the better situation for them, but we'll see if Belfer agrees.
2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6)(+37 on Nick, +53 on Levine)
One of the bigger one-week turnarounds in recent memory has given me a 37 point lead in the race for the NiJo spot. I can still win the division if I beat Barnard, Bennett beats Levine, and Billy beats Alan. I can also win a Wild Card if I beat Barnard, and at least three of Gutman, Nick, Levine, and Alan lose.
3. Gutman (Last Week: 2)(-31 on Nick, -15 on Levine, +25 on Weissbard, +28 on Alan, +50 on Esco)
The potential for collapse is real here, as Gutman could go from a bye to missing the playoffs entirely. If Gutman beats Marco, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Alan all win, and Alan outscores Gutman by 28. He can also get a bye if he wins, Esco loses, and Levine, Nick, and Alan all either lose, or end up with less points in a win. If Gutman loses, he needs Levine, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to outscore Levine by 15 without getting outscored by 28 by Alan.
4. Levine (Last Week: 3)(-53 on Kumpf, -16 on Nick, +15 on Gutman, +40 on Weissbard, +44 on Alan)
Can win the division by winning or by losing and having Alan lose as well (44 point difference between them is unlikely to be overcome in one week). Can also get a bye if he wins and Esco loses, while Nick either loses or Levine passes him in points. If Levine wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Nick, Gutman, and Alan all win and pass him in points. If Levine loses, he needs Gutman, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to hold his points lead over Gutman and Alan.
5. Esco (Last Week: 4)(-50 on Gutman, -25 on Weissbard, -22 on Alan)
This might be the most under the radar run to a bye in recent FALAFEL history. If Esco wins, he gets to rest until Week 15, no questions asked. If he loses, shit gets wild. He can still win the division if Nick loses, but he won't be able to make up the 80 point differential if Nick wins. The only way Esco misses the playoffs is if he loses, and three of Alan, Levine, Gutman, and Nick win.
6. Nick (Last Week: 5)(-37 on Nick, +16 on Levine, +31 on Gutman)
Nick's record is finally starting to reflect his team's performance this season, ironically right as that performance is starting to suffer. He can win the division if he beats AGD and Esco loses. If Nick loses, he still has a couple of playoff paths. He can get a Wild Card if myself as well as three of Gutman, Barnard, Alan, and Levine lose, and can get the NiJo spot if I win and Alan and Levine lose, as long as he doesn't blow his points lead to Levine or Gutman.
7. Alan (Last Week: 7)(-44 on Levine, -28 on Gutman, -3 on Weissbard, +22 on Esco)
Like Gutman, Alan has a wide range of outcomes. He can get a bye with a win, an Esco loss, and either Levine/Gutman losses, or wins where Alan outscores them by 43 and 28. If Alan wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Gutman also win without Alan making up his point differential on any of them. If Alan loses, he needs, Levine, Gutman, and Nick to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to make up his point differential on one of Nick/Levine/Gutman.
8. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)(-40 on Levine, -25 on Gutman, +3 on Alan, +25 on Esco)
Weissbard's only shot is the NiJo spot, and he won't be able to make up the points needed to get ahead of me or Nick. His paths all involve me and Nick winning, and Gutman and Alan losing. He is helped out further if Esco loses (giving Nick a path to the division) and/or Levine wins (removing him from NiJo spot consideration), but he can get in if those do not happen. The biggest hurdle outside of those items will be outscoring Gutman by 25 without getting outscored by 3 by Alan.
9. Marco (Last Week: 9)
He's 80 points behind the lowest playoff contender, and even if he passes Esco, it won't matter. His two year playoff streak is over.
10. Billy (Last Week: 10)
A team that looked so promising after the draft and couldn't recover from a terrible trade, an old QB, and an extreme lack of depth.
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Another multi-year playoff streak over, this team got it together far too late.
12. Barnard (Last Week: 12)
To complete his improbably playoff run, Barnard needs beat me, have Gutman and/or Nick lose, and have Alan and/or Levine lose. He won't win a tiebreaker with anyone, so I can eliminate him by just winning. The way this season has gone, I think we know how this will turn out.
13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
Another completely unremarkable season for Bennett, other than his refusal to pay any of his debts.
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
It's been a long 4 years since that chef's hat.
Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Kumpf
Considering all the playoff stakes that are undecided, it's pretty shocking that this is the only game that really has relevance to both teams. A high scoring loss might actually be the best case scenario for me, as I would potentially let a terrible Barnard team into the playoffs while theoretically avoiding AGD until the finals. But nothing is guaranteed, so both teams need to put up points. On paper, only one of us will. I have a pretty clear advantage at every single position other than D/ST, and it's very easy to see the Packers putting up more points against Danny Nickels than the Pats against Houston. But on paper, my team should have at least 10 wins, so this will likely be much closer than it looks. Regardless, reverse JuJu doesn't work when it's too obvious, and this matchup should be over before I even get to roll out Dalvin (and maybe Thielen?) on MNF.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 6-7
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/25
NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) vs. Browns - Win
Packers (-7) at Giants - Win
Jets (-3) at Bengals - Loss
49ers (+7) at Ravens - Win
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders - Win
Patriots (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Vikings (+3) at Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 34-29-1 (+0.36 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NFL Win Total Bets
Already Won
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5
Already Lost
Bengals over 6
49ers under 8
Looking Good
Bears under 9
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5
Looking Bad
Packers under 9.5
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5
TBD
Lions over 6.5
NCAAF Bets
Virginia (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Iowa (-6) at Nebraska - Loss
Alabama (-4) at Auburn - Loss
Baylor (-14) at Kansas - Win
NC State (+10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Oklahoma State (+13) vs. Oklahoma - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 51-41-1 (+3.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
NBA Bets
Celtics (-6.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Bulls (+1) vs. Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
BYU (+1.5) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site) - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 7-3 (+3.33 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Newcastle (+2) vs. Manchester City - Win
Bournemouth (+1.5) at Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 27-17-11 (+4.81 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-500) vs. Brighton - Win
Leicester City (-150) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 16-8 (+3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Club Brugge (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Dinamo Zagreb (+1) at Atalanta - Loss
Red Star (+2) vs. Bayern Munich - Loss
Barcelona (-1) vs. Dortmund - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Juventus (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Week 11 Recap
Between a cold that won't go away and the best roster I'll ever have likely not making the playoffs thanks to consecutive losses to Z and Ajay, I don't feel like putting together a real intro. So let's just jump into it.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Gutman (bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Alan - Levine Division Champ
4. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Nick - NiJo Spot
Week 12 Scenarios
Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.
Weissbard Division Champ
It's not official yet, but it would take a true collapse by both record and points for AGD to mess this one up.
Prediction: AGD
Levine Division Champ
My collapse has made this a two-team race between Alan and Levine, who play each other this week. Levine has a 25 point lead for tiebreak purposes, and if he beats Alan that will obviously increase. They are one of the two(?!) Matchups of the Week this week, and the winner should take the division.
Prediction: See below.
Zacherman Division Champ
This is a similar two-team race between Esco and Nick, where the trailing team also has the edge in points. There is no head-to-head matchup here that will decide things, and Esco is very unlikely to make up almost 100 points in two weeks, so it will come down to record. Can Nick (Billy, AGD) make up a game on Esco (Barnard, Weissbard)? I honestly don't know, but the odds are currently in Esco's favor.
Prediction: Esco
Wild Cards
Gutman remains a pretty good bet for one of these spots, as he can lose one of his last two games and still be guaranteed a playoff berth, and his point total makes it likely he gets in even if he goes 0/2. The other spot is very much up in the air. Barnard controls his own destiny, but plays Esco and me, so could (should?) easily go 0/2. The loser of Alan/Levine is still alive as long as Barnard doesn't win out, and if I beat Gutman and Barnard loses to Esco, then Rivalry Week becomes a potential elimination game. Based on overall team quality, I would pick the Alan/Levine loser here, but the way Barnard's season has gone I assume he pulls out a lucky win against me or Esco.
Predictions: Gutman and Barnard
NiJo Spot
This could get really fun. Of the potential NiJo teams, Nick has a 17 point lead over me, 21 points over Levine, 36 points over Weissbard, and 46 points over Alan. Of those teams, Nick actually has the best situation in terms of byes and injuries, so if anyone gains ground, they'll really need to earn it. Realistically the teams chasing Nick need to hope that he passes Esco for the division.
Prediction: Nick
Week 12 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
2. Gutman (Last Week: 2)
3. Levine (Last Week: 4)
4. Esco (Last Week: 5)
5. Nick (Last Week: 6)
6. Kumpf (Last Week: 3)
7. Alan (Last Week: 8)
8. Weissbard (Last Week: 7)
9. Marco (Last Week: 10)
10. Billy (Last Week: 9)
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
12. Barnard (Last Week: 12)
13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
There are three high profile matchups this week, and two of them will be highlighted in this space. Me vs. Gutman isn't as important as these two because Gutman is almost certainly a Wild Card team and I'm almost certainly only eligible for NiJo spot, so the win/loss doesn't really matter to either of us.
Matchup of the Week 1: Alan vs. Levine
The de facto Division Title game I mentioned above, this requires a more in-depth look. Somehow these matchups are continually wrecked by bye weeks, and this one is no exception. Alan loses Ekeler and Kelce, while Levine is down Keenan and Hunter Henry. So both teams need replacement TEs, and both have their stud QBs in prime time against potentially difficult matchups. Their RBs are either mediocre or stuck in time shares, and their WRs are on bad passing offenses. Yet somehow this is the division title matchup and I'm probably missing the playoffs? Not bitter at all. I think this one is close overall, but Alan's roster is slightly more balanced and his matchups look a little bit better to me, so I think he clinches the division with a week to spare.
Pick: Alan
Matchup of the Week 2: Barnard vs. Esco
In a rare twist, the entire league other than Esco is rooting for Barnard here. An Esco loss and a Nick win creates the most chaos possible in Week 13, with Rivalry games becoming de facto playoff matchups. Unfortunately, we probably aren't getting our wish. Barnard has the chance to get out to an early lead with Brisket and Fells, and if those two can combine for 30 then we have ourselves a game. There are multiple players in the Detroit/Washington and Atlanta/Tampa games, but the huge matchup (as always when Barnard is involved) is the Pats/Cowboys game. If the Pats can dominate on defense and pound the ball with Sony, Barnard should get enough to make this competitive. I don't see that happening, and with Mike Thomas destroying Cooks adding insult to injury after that trade, Esco should get one step closer to a division crown.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 5-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/18
NFL Bets
Colts (+4) at Texans - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Giants - Loss
Seahawks (+1.5) at Eagles - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 20-26-1 (-0.05 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern - Win
Oklahoma State (-6.5) at West Virginia - Win
Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (+5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Kansas State (+3) at Texas Tech - Win
Washington (-14) at Colorado - Loss
Utah State (+10) vs. Boise State - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 49-37-1 (+5.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Norwich (+1.5) at Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) at Wolves - Win
Chelsea (+1.5) at Manchester City - Win
Sheffield (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 25-17-11 (+3.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Bournemouth (+175) vs. Wolves - Loss
Leicester City (+105) at Brighton - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-8 (+2.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
NBA Bets
Sixers (-12) vs. Knicks - Loss
Wizards (+2.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019 Record: 12-9-1 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgia Tech (+5.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Gutman (bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Alan - Levine Division Champ
4. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Nick - NiJo Spot
Week 12 Scenarios
- AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week with a win over Billy.
- Alan can clinch the Division with a win over Levine.
- Esco can clinch the Division with a win over Barnard and Nick loss to Z.
- Gutman and Barnard can clinch the Wild Cards if they both win and Levine and Nick lose.
- Ajay, Zacherman, Weissbard, Bennett, and Billy have been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.
Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.
Weissbard Division Champ
It's not official yet, but it would take a true collapse by both record and points for AGD to mess this one up.
Prediction: AGD
Levine Division Champ
My collapse has made this a two-team race between Alan and Levine, who play each other this week. Levine has a 25 point lead for tiebreak purposes, and if he beats Alan that will obviously increase. They are one of the two(?!) Matchups of the Week this week, and the winner should take the division.
Prediction: See below.
Zacherman Division Champ
This is a similar two-team race between Esco and Nick, where the trailing team also has the edge in points. There is no head-to-head matchup here that will decide things, and Esco is very unlikely to make up almost 100 points in two weeks, so it will come down to record. Can Nick (Billy, AGD) make up a game on Esco (Barnard, Weissbard)? I honestly don't know, but the odds are currently in Esco's favor.
Prediction: Esco
Wild Cards
Gutman remains a pretty good bet for one of these spots, as he can lose one of his last two games and still be guaranteed a playoff berth, and his point total makes it likely he gets in even if he goes 0/2. The other spot is very much up in the air. Barnard controls his own destiny, but plays Esco and me, so could (should?) easily go 0/2. The loser of Alan/Levine is still alive as long as Barnard doesn't win out, and if I beat Gutman and Barnard loses to Esco, then Rivalry Week becomes a potential elimination game. Based on overall team quality, I would pick the Alan/Levine loser here, but the way Barnard's season has gone I assume he pulls out a lucky win against me or Esco.
Predictions: Gutman and Barnard
NiJo Spot
This could get really fun. Of the potential NiJo teams, Nick has a 17 point lead over me, 21 points over Levine, 36 points over Weissbard, and 46 points over Alan. Of those teams, Nick actually has the best situation in terms of byes and injuries, so if anyone gains ground, they'll really need to earn it. Realistically the teams chasing Nick need to hope that he passes Esco for the division.
Prediction: Nick
Week 12 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
2. Gutman (Last Week: 2)
3. Levine (Last Week: 4)
4. Esco (Last Week: 5)
5. Nick (Last Week: 6)
6. Kumpf (Last Week: 3)
7. Alan (Last Week: 8)
8. Weissbard (Last Week: 7)
9. Marco (Last Week: 10)
10. Billy (Last Week: 9)
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
12. Barnard (Last Week: 12)
13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
There are three high profile matchups this week, and two of them will be highlighted in this space. Me vs. Gutman isn't as important as these two because Gutman is almost certainly a Wild Card team and I'm almost certainly only eligible for NiJo spot, so the win/loss doesn't really matter to either of us.
Matchup of the Week 1: Alan vs. Levine
The de facto Division Title game I mentioned above, this requires a more in-depth look. Somehow these matchups are continually wrecked by bye weeks, and this one is no exception. Alan loses Ekeler and Kelce, while Levine is down Keenan and Hunter Henry. So both teams need replacement TEs, and both have their stud QBs in prime time against potentially difficult matchups. Their RBs are either mediocre or stuck in time shares, and their WRs are on bad passing offenses. Yet somehow this is the division title matchup and I'm probably missing the playoffs? Not bitter at all. I think this one is close overall, but Alan's roster is slightly more balanced and his matchups look a little bit better to me, so I think he clinches the division with a week to spare.
Pick: Alan
Matchup of the Week 2: Barnard vs. Esco
In a rare twist, the entire league other than Esco is rooting for Barnard here. An Esco loss and a Nick win creates the most chaos possible in Week 13, with Rivalry games becoming de facto playoff matchups. Unfortunately, we probably aren't getting our wish. Barnard has the chance to get out to an early lead with Brisket and Fells, and if those two can combine for 30 then we have ourselves a game. There are multiple players in the Detroit/Washington and Atlanta/Tampa games, but the huge matchup (as always when Barnard is involved) is the Pats/Cowboys game. If the Pats can dominate on defense and pound the ball with Sony, Barnard should get enough to make this competitive. I don't see that happening, and with Mike Thomas destroying Cooks adding insult to injury after that trade, Esco should get one step closer to a division crown.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 5-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/18
NFL Bets
Colts (+4) at Texans - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Giants - Loss
Seahawks (+1.5) at Eagles - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 20-26-1 (-0.05 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern - Win
Oklahoma State (-6.5) at West Virginia - Win
Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (+5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Kansas State (+3) at Texas Tech - Win
Washington (-14) at Colorado - Loss
Utah State (+10) vs. Boise State - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 49-37-1 (+5.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Norwich (+1.5) at Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) at Wolves - Win
Chelsea (+1.5) at Manchester City - Win
Sheffield (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 25-17-11 (+3.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Bournemouth (+175) vs. Wolves - Loss
Leicester City (+105) at Brighton - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-8 (+2.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
NBA Bets
Sixers (-12) vs. Knicks - Loss
Wizards (+2.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019 Record: 12-9-1 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
Georgia Tech (+5.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
Thursday, November 14, 2019
Week 10 Recap
Before we get started, this is the best forum I can find to post the side bet payment from Billy:
Chaos reigned supreme once again in Week 10, highlighted (low-lighted?) by Cooper Kupp getting shut out and Saquon rushing 13 times for 1 yard. With the trade deadline coming in hot, almost every team is looking to improve for the stretch run, but the flurry of early season moves might make for a relatively quiet deadline. Or maybe we get a blockbuster that changes the Stevens Bowl outlook. I've been wrong about pretty much everything else in this space so I'm sure Nick and Z will swap CMC and Mahomes the minute I press send (Yes, I'm jaded after losing to Z this week).
Anyway, let's take a closer look at the Playoff Picture as we head into the final three weeks of the Regular Season.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Gutman (Bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Levine - Levine Division Champ
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule
Week 11 Scenarios
Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.
Weissbard Division Champ
This one is quick, as mentioned above. AGD's magic number is 2 over Gutman and 1 over Barnard, so this division (and the bye and regular season title) can be wrapped up as soon as this week. A dominant season so far, with room for positive regression at the RB position, moves AGD back to the top of the Power Rankings after an extremely ill-advised one-week respite.
Prediction: AGD
Now it's time for the aforementioned chaos.
Levine Division Champ
This is essentially a three-way race, with the potential for all three teams to make the playoffs one way or another. Levine has the lead right now and should probably win it based on his schedule (Weissbard, Alan, Bennett), though the head-to-head with Alan could make things interesting. Alan's schedule is rough (AGD, Levine, Billy), so my guess is that he falls to third unless I completely shit the bed against my easier schedule (Ajay, Gutman, Barnard). These three teams are within 41 points of each other, so tiebreakers will be extremely important here.
Prediction: Levine
Zacherman Division Champ
Esco picked a hell of a time to get his shit together, and heads into Week 11 with a one-game lead and a relatively easy schedule (Gutman, Barnard, Weissbard). If he beats Gutman, I think he essentially clinches the division. If he loses this week, it opens the door for Nick, who should take down Z and Bennett before a crazy Rivalry Week with AGD. And despite being two games back, Marco has games against Ajay and Z remaining, so he could still have a say. This is the hardest division to predict, but I think Esco and Nick end up with the same record, which would likely give Nick the tiebreak based on points.
Prediction: Nick
Wild Cards
Despite a tough schedule (Esco, Kumpf, Marco), I think Gutman's squad is solid enough to hold onto at least one of the spots, especially given his point total. The second spot is wide open, and depends almost entirely on the outcomes above. If AGD, Levine, and Nick win their divisions, the second Wild Card is probably a race between Alan, Esco, Barnard, and myself. I can honestly see all of us ending up at 7-6, which would give me the edge right now given my 40+ point lead over the rest of the group. However, my team still has a ton of byes coming up, not to mention that I may have made one move too many for injured players. This one is a toss up to me, but based on the information we have now, I'm giving it to myself.
Predictions: Gutman and Kumpf
NiJo Spot
Giving myself the second Wild Card isn't just a selfish move, it also makes this spot the most fun. If everything above comes true, then the current top five scoring teams will already be in and the race for 6th will be incredibly fun. Alan has the lead, but he has a Packers bye and a diminishing RB situation to worry about. That leaves Weissbard (30 points behind) as the team most likely to benefit, and no one wants to see his team in the playoffs. He loses his Seahawks this week, but has held on to Kyler for a situation just like this (albeit in a matchup against San Fran). This will be a close one, but I think Weiss does just enough to keep his title defense alive.
Prediction: Weissbard
Trade Grade 17
Gutman receives Jacob Hollister
Kumpf receives Vance McDonald
Blockbuster alert! This trade was deemed unworthy of Esco's valuable time, so I'll do the write up myself. Gutman gets a potentially promising Seattle TE to make up for losing Dissly earlier this year, which gives his biggest position of need some upside. I get Kittle insurance that's not on a bye this week, and is better than anyone on the waiver wire. Nothing splashy, but filling a practical need for both teams.
Gutman Grade: B-
Kumpf Grade: C+
Trade Grade 18
Barnard receives Brian Hill and Julian Edelman
Marco receives Melvin Gordon
This is a fun trade in that Barnard finally caved and traded Melvin after three months of it being obvious that he should, and that he did it for a white receiver, but in practical terms I have questions on both sides. For Marco, is Melvin enough of an upgrade over Damien Williams to drop from Edeleman to Marvin at WR1? He has depth behind Marvin, but his WR floor has dropped considerably. For Barnard, is losing Melvin's upside worth some stability at the WR position? While Marco got the most valuable asset, I think Barnard's logic makes slightly more sense, but the trade makes each team's (admittedly long shot) Stevens Bowl odds worse.
Barnard Grade: C
Marco Grade: C+
Trade Grade 19
Bennett receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and Curtis Samuel
Weissbard receives Tyreek Hill
Just hours before the Trade Deadline, we got the blockbuster I feared, though it's not between any of the teams I anticipated. On the surface, it appears that both teams are out of it, but I've slept on it and now I really like this trade. To get to the NiJo spot, Bennett would need to pass 5 teams, which isn't really a reasonable ask, so his only playoff path is the Division/Wild Card. To do that, he needs the highest floor each week, instead of the highest ceiling overall, and nothing screams high floor/low ceiling more than Marlon Mack. His receivers are now a weekly crapshoot, but if he picks the right ones, he has a shot against an incredibly difficult schedule (Nick, AGD, Levine). He'll still need help to make it, but his 1.2% forecast is probably not that far off.
The real interesting team here is Weissbard. As mentioned above, his only path is the NiJo spot so it's all about points for our defending champ. None of the guys he gave up are likely to break 20 even in their best weeks, and Reek is a potentially 30+ points in his best weeks. The downgrade from Mack to Hyde isn't nothing, but I like the aggressiveness here.
Bennett Grade: B- (downgraded from a B because he fucked up the timing again)
Weissbard Trade: B- (downgraded from a B because he didn't find a way to get value for Kyler)
Week 11 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 2)
2. Gutman (Last Week: 4)
3. Kumpf (Last Week: 1)
4. Levine (Last Week: 5)
5. Esco (Last Week: 6)
6. Nick (Last Week: 3)
7. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)
8. Alan (Last Week: 7)
9. Billy (Last Week: 8)
10. Marco (Last Week: 11)
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
12. Barnard (Last Week: 10)
13. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Matchup of the Week: Esco vs. Gutman
Despite all the potential chaos in the league, this week doesn't have many clear-cut huge matchups with far-reaching implications. That leaves us with the Draft Planner Bowl. A win for Gutman essentially clinches the playoffs for him, while throwing the Zacherman Division into further chaos. A win for Esco puts him in great position for a division title, while creating huge questions in both the Wild Card and NiJo spots.
The only real bye/injury question is that Gutman loses Carson to a bye, giving us the closest thing to a full strength matchup in this space in quite a while. Looking at matchups, Esco has a clear edge overall, and we have a couple of huge games in Dallas/Detroit, New Orleans/Tampa, and a potentially huge RB matchup in Philly/New England that will be the last game for each team. Gutman's team has been resilient enough to be matchup-proof most weeks, but I think the loss of Carson combined with Esco's surge will prove to be too much this week.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 4-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/11
NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) at Browns - Loss
49ers (-11.5) vs. Cardinals - Loss
Patriots (-3) at Eagles - Win
Bears (+7) at Rams - Loss
Last Week: 2-1-1
2019 Record: 28-25-1 (-0.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Wisconsin (-14) at Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-14) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Baylor (+10) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 7-0
2019 Record: 45-34-1 (+5.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
NBA Bets
Timberwolves (+3) at Pistons - Win
Celtics (-3.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
Grizzlies (+11) at Spurs - Win
Nuggets (-10) vs. Hawks - Loss
Jazz (-6.5) vs. Nets - Loss
Suns (+3) vs. Lakers - Loss
Celtics (-7) vs. Wizards - Push
Last Week: 2-2
2019 Record: 11-8-1 (+1.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
LSU (+3.5) at VCU - Win
Purdue (+1) at Marquette - Loss
Last Week: 4-2
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+1.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
Moving on...
Chaos reigned supreme once again in Week 10, highlighted (low-lighted?) by Cooper Kupp getting shut out and Saquon rushing 13 times for 1 yard. With the trade deadline coming in hot, almost every team is looking to improve for the stretch run, but the flurry of early season moves might make for a relatively quiet deadline. Or maybe we get a blockbuster that changes the Stevens Bowl outlook. I've been wrong about pretty much everything else in this space so I'm sure Nick and Z will swap CMC and Mahomes the minute I press send (Yes, I'm jaded after losing to Z this week).
Anyway, let's take a closer look at the Playoff Picture as we head into the final three weeks of the Regular Season.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Gutman (Bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Levine - Levine Division Champ
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule
Week 11 Scenarios
- AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week if they win and Gutman loses.
- Ajay has been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.
- Weissbard has been eliminated from the division, and can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.
- Zacherman can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.
Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.
Weissbard Division Champ
This one is quick, as mentioned above. AGD's magic number is 2 over Gutman and 1 over Barnard, so this division (and the bye and regular season title) can be wrapped up as soon as this week. A dominant season so far, with room for positive regression at the RB position, moves AGD back to the top of the Power Rankings after an extremely ill-advised one-week respite.
Prediction: AGD
Now it's time for the aforementioned chaos.
Levine Division Champ
This is essentially a three-way race, with the potential for all three teams to make the playoffs one way or another. Levine has the lead right now and should probably win it based on his schedule (Weissbard, Alan, Bennett), though the head-to-head with Alan could make things interesting. Alan's schedule is rough (AGD, Levine, Billy), so my guess is that he falls to third unless I completely shit the bed against my easier schedule (Ajay, Gutman, Barnard). These three teams are within 41 points of each other, so tiebreakers will be extremely important here.
Prediction: Levine
Zacherman Division Champ
Esco picked a hell of a time to get his shit together, and heads into Week 11 with a one-game lead and a relatively easy schedule (Gutman, Barnard, Weissbard). If he beats Gutman, I think he essentially clinches the division. If he loses this week, it opens the door for Nick, who should take down Z and Bennett before a crazy Rivalry Week with AGD. And despite being two games back, Marco has games against Ajay and Z remaining, so he could still have a say. This is the hardest division to predict, but I think Esco and Nick end up with the same record, which would likely give Nick the tiebreak based on points.
Prediction: Nick
Wild Cards
Despite a tough schedule (Esco, Kumpf, Marco), I think Gutman's squad is solid enough to hold onto at least one of the spots, especially given his point total. The second spot is wide open, and depends almost entirely on the outcomes above. If AGD, Levine, and Nick win their divisions, the second Wild Card is probably a race between Alan, Esco, Barnard, and myself. I can honestly see all of us ending up at 7-6, which would give me the edge right now given my 40+ point lead over the rest of the group. However, my team still has a ton of byes coming up, not to mention that I may have made one move too many for injured players. This one is a toss up to me, but based on the information we have now, I'm giving it to myself.
Predictions: Gutman and Kumpf
NiJo Spot
Giving myself the second Wild Card isn't just a selfish move, it also makes this spot the most fun. If everything above comes true, then the current top five scoring teams will already be in and the race for 6th will be incredibly fun. Alan has the lead, but he has a Packers bye and a diminishing RB situation to worry about. That leaves Weissbard (30 points behind) as the team most likely to benefit, and no one wants to see his team in the playoffs. He loses his Seahawks this week, but has held on to Kyler for a situation just like this (albeit in a matchup against San Fran). This will be a close one, but I think Weiss does just enough to keep his title defense alive.
Prediction: Weissbard
Trade Grade 17
Gutman receives Jacob Hollister
Kumpf receives Vance McDonald
Blockbuster alert! This trade was deemed unworthy of Esco's valuable time, so I'll do the write up myself. Gutman gets a potentially promising Seattle TE to make up for losing Dissly earlier this year, which gives his biggest position of need some upside. I get Kittle insurance that's not on a bye this week, and is better than anyone on the waiver wire. Nothing splashy, but filling a practical need for both teams.
Gutman Grade: B-
Kumpf Grade: C+
Trade Grade 18
Barnard receives Brian Hill and Julian Edelman
Marco receives Melvin Gordon
This is a fun trade in that Barnard finally caved and traded Melvin after three months of it being obvious that he should, and that he did it for a white receiver, but in practical terms I have questions on both sides. For Marco, is Melvin enough of an upgrade over Damien Williams to drop from Edeleman to Marvin at WR1? He has depth behind Marvin, but his WR floor has dropped considerably. For Barnard, is losing Melvin's upside worth some stability at the WR position? While Marco got the most valuable asset, I think Barnard's logic makes slightly more sense, but the trade makes each team's (admittedly long shot) Stevens Bowl odds worse.
Barnard Grade: C
Marco Grade: C+
Trade Grade 19
Bennett receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and Curtis Samuel
Weissbard receives Tyreek Hill
Just hours before the Trade Deadline, we got the blockbuster I feared, though it's not between any of the teams I anticipated. On the surface, it appears that both teams are out of it, but I've slept on it and now I really like this trade. To get to the NiJo spot, Bennett would need to pass 5 teams, which isn't really a reasonable ask, so his only playoff path is the Division/Wild Card. To do that, he needs the highest floor each week, instead of the highest ceiling overall, and nothing screams high floor/low ceiling more than Marlon Mack. His receivers are now a weekly crapshoot, but if he picks the right ones, he has a shot against an incredibly difficult schedule (Nick, AGD, Levine). He'll still need help to make it, but his 1.2% forecast is probably not that far off.
The real interesting team here is Weissbard. As mentioned above, his only path is the NiJo spot so it's all about points for our defending champ. None of the guys he gave up are likely to break 20 even in their best weeks, and Reek is a potentially 30+ points in his best weeks. The downgrade from Mack to Hyde isn't nothing, but I like the aggressiveness here.
Bennett Grade: B- (downgraded from a B because he fucked up the timing again)
Weissbard Trade: B- (downgraded from a B because he didn't find a way to get value for Kyler)
Week 11 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 2)
2. Gutman (Last Week: 4)
3. Kumpf (Last Week: 1)
4. Levine (Last Week: 5)
5. Esco (Last Week: 6)
6. Nick (Last Week: 3)
7. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)
8. Alan (Last Week: 7)
9. Billy (Last Week: 8)
10. Marco (Last Week: 11)
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
12. Barnard (Last Week: 10)
13. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Matchup of the Week: Esco vs. Gutman
Despite all the potential chaos in the league, this week doesn't have many clear-cut huge matchups with far-reaching implications. That leaves us with the Draft Planner Bowl. A win for Gutman essentially clinches the playoffs for him, while throwing the Zacherman Division into further chaos. A win for Esco puts him in great position for a division title, while creating huge questions in both the Wild Card and NiJo spots.
The only real bye/injury question is that Gutman loses Carson to a bye, giving us the closest thing to a full strength matchup in this space in quite a while. Looking at matchups, Esco has a clear edge overall, and we have a couple of huge games in Dallas/Detroit, New Orleans/Tampa, and a potentially huge RB matchup in Philly/New England that will be the last game for each team. Gutman's team has been resilient enough to be matchup-proof most weeks, but I think the loss of Carson combined with Esco's surge will prove to be too much this week.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 4-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/11
NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) at Browns - Loss
49ers (-11.5) vs. Cardinals - Loss
Patriots (-3) at Eagles - Win
Bears (+7) at Rams - Loss
Last Week: 2-1-1
2019 Record: 28-25-1 (-0.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Wisconsin (-14) at Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-14) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Baylor (+10) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 7-0
2019 Record: 45-34-1 (+5.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
NBA Bets
Timberwolves (+3) at Pistons - Win
Celtics (-3.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
Grizzlies (+11) at Spurs - Win
Nuggets (-10) vs. Hawks - Loss
Jazz (-6.5) vs. Nets - Loss
Suns (+3) vs. Lakers - Loss
Celtics (-7) vs. Wizards - Push
Last Week: 2-2
2019 Record: 11-8-1 (+1.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
LSU (+3.5) at VCU - Win
Purdue (+1) at Marquette - Loss
Last Week: 4-2
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+1.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
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