Week 9 Recap

Time for my favorite post of the year, the Mock Trade Deadline Preview! Let's get right to it, starting with the trades that already happened, including one that counts as my final big swing at a Chef's Coat. Take it away Esco...

Trade Grade 15
Kumpf receives Jameis Winston, JD McKissic, and Adam Thielen
Marco receives Philip Rivers, Damien Williams, and Marvin Jones
Thielen is the best player in the trade, but also the biggest question mark. At minimum he will miss 40% of the 5 regular season games remaining (this week and his week 12 bye) and I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses more.  If he gets healthy and stays healthy this is a big win for Kumpf who probably would have one of the strongest starting 5 (2RB, 2WR, FLEX) in the league. However, this seems to be a nagging injury with an unpredictable timeline (see David Johnson, Cam Newton). The worst-case scenario is Thielen starts multiple games but leaves early as he did last week, costing your team the W (see Marco Week 9). I also hate the idea of relying on Jameis Winston in the fantasy playoffs. Despite his recent success, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is benched or has multiple negative scoring games with his history. Overall, high upside but also a much higher potential for a devastating loss in the playoffs so really a win for all of us.

Marco needs to likely win out to make the playoffs and this trade helps him get there. I think the biggest concern for me is honestly J.D. McKissic. The fact the Lions have seen Ty Johnson all year and instead gave the ball to Tra Carson off the street is a huge red flag and McKissic may end up getting to viable RB2 level before Ty ever does.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B

Trade Grade 16
Bennett receives Nyheim Hines, Tyrell Williams, and Gerald Everett
Esco receives James White, Trey Edmunds, and Dallas Goedert
This really messed up two mock trades for me, but I'll try to not let that skew my rating. I think the trade is fair overall, but don't really get the need for this specific trade for either team. Bennett loses a handcuff for Conner and adds another WR2 type to his slew of options there. I guess there's a TE upgrade? For Esco, he balances his roster better, but I would have thought he could get more for one of his WRs, even if he had to deal one of the top three. Can't really complain about either side, but nothing Earth-shattering here.
Bennett Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B

Mock Trade 1
Ajay receives Kenyan Drake and Emmanuel Sanders
Zacherman receives Tony Pollard and Odell Beckham Jr.
Let's get these guys out of the way early. This gives Ajay complete ownership of the backfields in Arizona and Washington, which is a pretty good symbol of his season so far. It also makes him less reliant on Cleveland, which has been an abusive relationship so far. As for Z, he adds Odell to his group of high ceiling players and gives him the best shot of winning a weekly prize and Rivalry Week. I've already talked too much about these teams.

Mock Trade 2
Gutman receives Evan Engram
Nick receives Miles Sanders
Given the teams involved here, and their NFL allegiances, the chances of this happening are less than zero, but it would help balance their rosters. Gutman's TE position has been snake bitten all year, and Engram, while potentially injured, raises the floor there considerably. He would take a hit at flex, but between Davante Parker and Hollywood Brown, his replacements aren't terrible. Nick would have the RB positions for the Panthers, Rams, and Eagles cornered, which would make him the bizarro Ajay. And his relatively depth at TE also allows him to diversify from his continued shocking reliance on the Giants passing game.

Mock Trade 3
Billy receives Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams
Levine receives Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott, and Royce Freeman
This would be a huge trade, and one that I don't think either team really needs to make, but would be fun nonetheless. Billy gets a true stud in Lamar, while only slightly downgrading at RB, and most importantly, not having to root for Brady anymore. Levine gets to make an upgrade at RB and remove the Packers RB situation from being a weekly headache. The downgrade from Lamar to Brady hurts, but Tom's been uncharacteristically average so far this year, so he may have some upside left..

Mock Trade 4
Alan receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and DK Metcalf
Weissbard receives David Montgomery, Davante Adams, and Cole Beasley
I'm as surprised as you are that Weissbard's trade doesn't include Kyler, does include two Bills WRs, and also involves him re-acquiring Montgomery, but here we are. Alan needs reliability at RB, and there is no one more reliable in terms of his role than Mack. Brown and Metcalf would combine with Sutton to give him inconsistent upside at WR, but I'd prefer my boom/bust players at receiver, especially when Alan is leading his division. Weissbard, on the other hand, is only making the playoffs in the NiJo spot, so he needs ceiling. If Davante is truly healthy, he can combine with the rest of Dan's roster to explode over the rest of the season. If he busts, Weiss probably wasn't making it anyway. This trade would take balls, so I doubt Alan would do it.

Mock Trade 5
AGD receives Devonta Freeman and TY Hilton
Barnard receives Dare Ogunbowale and Mike Evans
Another ballsy trade that I can't see happening, but there is logic here. AGD is the favorite right now, but their two weaknesses are over-reliance on two RBs that might not deliver, and Mike Evans' lack of consistency. Bringing in Freeman and Hilton would make their starting lineup extremely formidable, and would add the consistency needed for the playoffs. For Barnard, he gets a stud with a high ceiling in Evans, which his team lacks right now, and a player whose last name he won't even attempt to pronounce in public.


Week 10 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)

2. AGD (Last Week: 1)

3. Nick (Last Week: 4)

4. Gutman (Last Week: 5)

5. Levine (Last Week: 7)

6. Esco (Last Week: 6)

7. Alan (Last Week: 8)

8. Billy (Last Week: 3)

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)

10. Barnard  (Last Week: 11)

11. Marco (Last Week: 12)

12. Bennett (Last Week: 10)

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Alan (Bye) - Levine Division Champ
3. Gutman - Wild Card 1
4. Barnard - Wild Card 2
5. Nick - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule

Somehow, no one has been eliminated from the Division or Wild Card spots yet.


Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Levine
If Marco upsets Nick, the Zacherman Division could be destined for chaos, but this matchup conceivably affects the other five playoff spots. A Levine win will likely put him in the playoffs over Barnard, while a Barnard win makes it very difficult for Levine to claw his way back in. As for the matchup itself, similar to last week, the MotW is marred by a one-sided bye situation. Nick was able to overcome his byes thanks to CMC last week, but Barnard missing his best player and Sony seems like it will be too much. The path to victory for Barnard involves a Melvin heavy Chargers win on Thursday, followed by the Falcons putting up 30+ on the Saints, and the Panthers shutting down the Packers RBs. Even then, he will need Lamar to get hurt and the Colts D to break 20 against Miami. Not impossible, but not likely. Between the teams that have been my Rivals the past two years, I'm #Kursing my first one.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 3-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/4

NFL Bets
Raiders (+1.5) vs. Chargers - Win
Saints (-13) vs. Falcons - Loss
Ravens (-10) at Bengals - Win
Bills (+3) at Browns - Push
Last Week: 1-4
2019 Record: 27-22-1 (+1.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Washington (-10) at Oregon State - Win
Florida State (+3) at Boston College - Win
Purdue (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Miami (-6.5) vs. Louisville - Win
USC (+1.5) at Arizona State - Win
Kansas State (+7) at Texas - Win
Notre Dame (-7) at Duke - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2019 Record: 43-33-1 (+4.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (+1.5) at Chelsea - Loss
Liverpool (Pick) vs. Manchester City - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Newcastle (+160) vs Bournemouth - Win
Burnley (+125) vs. West Ham - Win
Manchester United (-145) vs. Brighton - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Chelsea (-0.5) vs. Ajax - Loss
Lyon (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Olympiacos (+2.5) at Bayern Munich - Win
Shakhtar (+0.5) at Dinamo Zagreb - Win
Atalanta (+1) vs. Manchester City - Win
Real Madrid (-2) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Red Star (+1) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Zenit (+210) vs. RB Leipzig - Loss
Valencia (Even) vs. Lille - Win
Dortmund (+120) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Lyon (+105) vs. Benfica - Win
Leverkusen (+195) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Hawks (+2.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Celtics (+1) at Spurs - Win
Hornets (+1.5) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 8-5 (+2.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Duke (+2.5) vs. Kansas (Neutral Site) - Win
Virginia Tech (+7) at Clemson - Win
NC State (-7) vs. Georgia Tech - Loss
Wisconsin (+5) vs. St. Mary's - Win
North Carolina (-9.5) vs. Notre Dame - Win
Baylor (-5) vs. Washington (Neutral Site) - Loss
2019-20 Record: 4-2 (+1.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

MLS Spread Bets
Final 2019 Record: 15-12-5 (+0.33 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Final 2019 Record: 9-10 (-0.75 units)