Week 12 Recap

Ooooh boy! Other than Esco beating Barnard, Week 12 gave us pretty much maximum chaos. If we accept that one team can only make up 50 points on another team in a given week, then we still have 9 teams alive for the 6 playoff spots heading into Week 13 (sorry Marco). Not to mention other items up for grabs, including bye weeks, seeding, and an actual Shot Spot Bowl. And all of that is before we get to Rivalry Week, with $50 on the line in each matchup and and $150 for the weekly high score. All of this will go down with no NFL teams on a bye and three Thursday games. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.

This week's post will focus entirely on the playoffs, so buckle up.

Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Esco (bye) - Zacherman Division Champ
3. Nick - Wild Card 1
4. Levine - Levine Division Champ
5. Gutman - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot


Week 12 Scenarios/Power Rankings (including point differentials from nearest potential tiebreakers)

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Clinched the playoffs, a bye, and the Regular Season Best Record prize. That doesn't mean they get to relax in Week 13 though, as they face Nick with a lot of potential implications. Is it better to beat Nick, and likely push him into the NiJo spot (or out of the playoffs entirely) to allow for someone like Alan or Barnard a better shot at a Wild Card? Or should they lose to Nick on purpose, clinch him a playoff spot, and open the door for Weissbard to make moves? I think a win is probably the better situation for them, but we'll see if Belfer agrees.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6)(+37 on Nick, +53 on Levine)
One of the bigger one-week turnarounds in recent memory has given me a 37 point lead in the race for the NiJo spot. I can still win the division if I beat Barnard, Bennett beats Levine, and Billy beats Alan. I can also win a Wild Card if I beat Barnard, and at least three of Gutman, Nick, Levine, and Alan lose.

3. Gutman (Last Week: 2)(-31 on Nick, -15 on Levine, +25 on Weissbard, +28 on Alan, +50 on Esco)
The potential for collapse is real here, as Gutman could go from a bye to missing the playoffs entirely. If Gutman beats Marco, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Alan all win, and Alan outscores Gutman by 28. He can also get a bye if he wins, Esco loses, and Levine, Nick, and Alan all either lose, or end up with less points in a win. If Gutman loses, he needs Levine, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to outscore Levine by 15 without getting outscored by 28 by Alan.

4. Levine (Last Week: 3)(-53 on Kumpf, -16 on Nick, +15 on Gutman, +40 on Weissbard, +44 on Alan)
Can win the division by winning or by losing and having Alan lose as well (44 point difference between them is unlikely to be overcome in one week). Can also get a bye if he wins and Esco loses, while Nick either loses or Levine passes him in points. If Levine wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Nick, Gutman, and Alan all win and pass him in points. If Levine loses, he needs Gutman, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to hold his points lead over Gutman and Alan.

5. Esco (Last Week: 4)(-50 on Gutman, -25 on Weissbard, -22 on Alan)
This might be the most under the radar run to a bye in recent FALAFEL history. If Esco wins, he gets to rest until Week 15, no questions asked. If he loses, shit gets wild. He can still win the division if Nick loses, but he won't be able to make up the 80 point differential if Nick wins. The only way Esco misses the playoffs is if he loses, and three of Alan, Levine, Gutman, and Nick win.

6. Nick (Last Week: 5)(-37 on Nick, +16 on Levine, +31 on Gutman)
Nick's record is finally starting to reflect his team's performance this season, ironically right as that performance is starting to suffer. He can win the division if he beats AGD and Esco loses. If Nick loses, he still has a couple of playoff paths. He can get a Wild Card if myself as well as three of Gutman, Barnard, Alan, and Levine lose, and can get the NiJo spot if I win and Alan and Levine lose, as long as he doesn't blow his points lead to Levine or Gutman.

7. Alan (Last Week: 7)(-44 on Levine, -28 on Gutman, -3 on Weissbard, +22 on Esco)
Like Gutman, Alan has a wide range of outcomes. He can get a bye with a win, an Esco loss, and either Levine/Gutman losses, or wins where Alan outscores them by 43 and 28. If Alan wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Gutman also win without Alan making up his point differential on any of them. If Alan loses, he needs, Levine, Gutman, and Nick to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to make up his point differential on one of Nick/Levine/Gutman.

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)(-40 on Levine, -25 on Gutman, +3 on Alan, +25 on Esco)
Weissbard's only shot is the NiJo spot, and he won't be able to make up the points needed to get ahead of me or Nick. His paths all involve me and Nick winning, and Gutman and Alan losing. He is helped out further if Esco loses (giving Nick a path to the division) and/or Levine wins (removing him from NiJo spot consideration), but he can get in if those do not happen. The biggest hurdle outside of those items will be outscoring Gutman by 25 without getting outscored by 3 by Alan.

9. Marco (Last Week: 9)
He's 80 points behind the lowest playoff contender, and even if he passes Esco, it won't matter. His two year playoff streak is over.

10. Billy (Last Week: 10)
A team that looked so promising after the draft and couldn't recover from a terrible trade, an old QB, and an extreme lack of depth.

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Another multi-year playoff streak over, this team got it together far too late.

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)
To complete his improbably playoff run, Barnard needs beat me, have Gutman and/or Nick lose, and have Alan and/or Levine lose. He won't win a tiebreaker with anyone, so I can eliminate him by just winning. The way this season has gone, I think we know how this will turn out.

13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
Another completely unremarkable season for Bennett, other than his refusal to pay any of his debts.

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
It's been a long 4 years since that chef's hat.


Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Kumpf
Considering all the playoff stakes that are undecided, it's pretty shocking that this is the only game that really has relevance to both teams. A high scoring loss might actually be the best case scenario for me, as I would potentially let a terrible Barnard team into the playoffs while theoretically avoiding AGD until the finals. But nothing is guaranteed, so both teams need to put up points. On paper, only one of us will. I have a pretty clear advantage at every single position other than D/ST, and it's very easy to see the Packers putting up more points against Danny Nickels than the Pats against Houston. But on paper, my team should have at least 10 wins, so this will likely be much closer than it looks. Regardless, reverse JuJu doesn't work when it's too obvious, and this matchup should be over before I even get to roll out Dalvin (and maybe Thielen?) on MNF.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 6-7


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/25

NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) vs. Browns - Win
Packers (-7) at Giants - Win
Jets (-3) at Bengals - Loss
49ers (+7) at Ravens - Win
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders - Win
Patriots (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Vikings (+3) at Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 34-29-1 (+0.36 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NFL Win Total Bets
Already Won
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5

Already Lost
Bengals over 6
49ers under 8

Looking Good
Bears under 9
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5

Looking Bad
Packers under 9.5
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5

TBD
Lions over 6.5

NCAAF Bets
Virginia (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Iowa (-6) at Nebraska - Loss
Alabama (-4) at Auburn - Loss
Baylor (-14) at Kansas - Win
NC State (+10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Oklahoma State (+13) vs. Oklahoma - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 51-41-1 (+3.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets
Celtics (-6.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Bulls (+1) vs. Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
BYU (+1.5) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site) - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 7-3 (+3.33 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Newcastle (+2) vs. Manchester City - Win
Bournemouth (+1.5) at Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 27-17-11 (+4.81 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-500) vs. Brighton - Win
Leicester City (-150) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 16-8 (+3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Club Brugge (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Dinamo Zagreb (+1) at Atalanta - Loss
Red Star (+2) vs. Bayern Munich - Loss
Barcelona (-1) vs. Dortmund - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Juventus (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

Week 11 Recap

Between a cold that won't go away and the best roster I'll ever have likely not making the playoffs thanks to consecutive losses to Z and Ajay, I don't feel like putting together a real intro. So let's just jump into it.

Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Gutman (bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Alan - Levine Division Champ
4. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Nick - NiJo Spot

Week 12 Scenarios

• AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week with a win over Billy.
• Alan can clinch the Division with a win over Levine.
• Esco can clinch the Division with a win over Barnard and Nick loss to Z.
• Gutman and Barnard can clinch the Wild Cards if they both win and Levine and Nick lose.
• Ajay, Zacherman, Weissbard, Bennett, and Billy have been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.

Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.

Weissbard Division Champ
It's not official yet, but it would take a true collapse by both record and points for AGD to mess this one up.
Prediction: AGD 

Levine Division Champ
My collapse has made this a two-team race between Alan and Levine, who play each other this week. Levine has a 25 point lead for tiebreak purposes, and if he beats Alan that will obviously increase. They are one of the two(?!) Matchups of the Week this week, and the winner should take the division.
Prediction: See below.

Zacherman Division Champ
This is a similar two-team race between Esco and Nick, where the trailing team also has the edge in points. There is no head-to-head matchup here that will decide things, and Esco is very unlikely to make up almost 100 points in two weeks, so it will come down to record. Can Nick (Billy, AGD) make up a game on Esco (Barnard, Weissbard)? I honestly don't know, but the odds are currently in Esco's favor.
Prediction: Esco

Wild Cards
Gutman remains a pretty good bet for one of these spots, as he can lose one of his last two games and still be guaranteed a playoff berth, and his point total makes it likely he gets in even if he goes 0/2. The other spot is very much up in the air. Barnard controls his own destiny, but plays Esco and me, so could (should?) easily go 0/2. The loser of Alan/Levine is still alive as long as Barnard doesn't win out, and if I beat Gutman and Barnard loses to Esco, then Rivalry Week becomes a potential elimination game. Based on overall team quality, I would pick the Alan/Levine loser here, but the way Barnard's season has gone I assume he pulls out a lucky win against me or Esco.
Predictions: Gutman and Barnard

NiJo Spot
This could get really fun. Of the potential NiJo teams, Nick has a 17 point lead over me, 21 points over Levine, 36 points over Weissbard, and 46 points over Alan. Of those teams, Nick actually has the best situation in terms of byes and injuries, so if anyone gains ground, they'll really need to earn it. Realistically the teams chasing Nick need to hope that he passes Esco for the division.
Prediction: Nick


Week 12 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)

2. Gutman (Last Week: 2)

3. Levine (Last Week: 4)

4. Esco (Last Week: 5)

5. Nick (Last Week: 6)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 3)

7. Alan (Last Week: 8)

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 7)

9. Marco (Last Week: 10)

10. Billy (Last Week: 9)

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)

13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


There are three high profile matchups this week, and two of them will be highlighted in this space. Me vs. Gutman isn't as important as these two because Gutman is almost certainly a Wild Card team and I'm almost certainly only eligible for NiJo spot, so the win/loss doesn't really matter to either of us.

Matchup of the Week 1: Alan vs. Levine
The de facto Division Title game I mentioned above, this requires a more in-depth look. Somehow these matchups are continually wrecked by bye weeks, and this one is no exception. Alan loses Ekeler and Kelce, while Levine is down Keenan and Hunter Henry. So both teams need replacement TEs, and both have their stud QBs in prime time against potentially difficult matchups. Their RBs are either mediocre or stuck in time shares, and their WRs are on bad passing offenses. Yet somehow this is the division title matchup and I'm probably missing the playoffs? Not bitter at all. I think this one is close overall, but Alan's roster is slightly more balanced and his matchups look a little bit better to me, so I think he clinches the division with a week to spare.
Pick: Alan

Matchup of the Week 2: Barnard vs. Esco
In a rare twist, the entire league other than Esco is rooting for Barnard here. An Esco loss and a Nick win creates the most chaos possible in Week 13, with Rivalry games becoming de facto playoff matchups. Unfortunately, we probably aren't getting our wish. Barnard has the chance to get out to an early lead with Brisket and Fells, and if those two can combine for 30 then we have ourselves a game. There are multiple players in the Detroit/Washington and Atlanta/Tampa games, but the huge matchup (as always when Barnard is involved) is the Pats/Cowboys game. If the Pats can dominate on defense and pound the ball with Sony, Barnard should get enough to make this competitive. I don't see that happening, and with Mike Thomas destroying Cooks adding insult to injury after that trade, Esco should get one step closer to a division crown.
Pick: Esco 

MotW Record: 5-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/18

NFL Bets
Colts (+4) at Texans - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Giants - Loss
Seahawks (+1.5) at Eagles - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 20-26-1 (-0.05 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern - Win
Oklahoma State (-6.5) at West Virginia - Win
Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (+5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Kansas State (+3) at Texas Tech - Win
Washington (-14) at Colorado - Loss
Utah State (+10) vs. Boise State - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 49-37-1 (+5.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Norwich (+1.5) at Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) at Wolves - Win
Chelsea (+1.5) at Manchester City - Win
Sheffield (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 25-17-11 (+3.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Bournemouth (+175) vs. Wolves - Loss
Leicester City (+105) at Brighton - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-8 (+2.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Sixers (-12) vs. Knicks - Loss
Wizards (+2.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019 Record: 12-9-1 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Georgia Tech (+5.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

Week 10 Recap

Before we get started, this is the best forum I can find to post the side bet payment from Billy:

Moving on...

Chaos reigned supreme once again in Week 10, highlighted (low-lighted?) by Cooper Kupp getting shut out and Saquon rushing 13 times for 1 yard. With the trade deadline coming in hot, almost every team is looking to improve for the stretch run, but the flurry of early season moves might make for a relatively quiet deadline. Or maybe we get a blockbuster that changes the Stevens Bowl outlook. I've been wrong about pretty much everything else in this space so I'm sure Nick and Z will swap CMC and Mahomes the minute I press send (Yes, I'm jaded after losing to Z this week).

Anyway, let's take a closer look at the Playoff Picture as we head into the final three weeks of the Regular Season.

Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Gutman (Bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Levine - Levine Division Champ
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule

Week 11 Scenarios

• AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week if they win and Gutman loses.
• Ajay has been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.
• Weissbard has been eliminated from the division, and can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.
• Zacherman can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.

Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.

Weissbard Division Champ
This one is quick, as mentioned above. AGD's magic number is 2 over Gutman and 1 over Barnard, so this division (and the bye and regular season title) can be wrapped up as soon as this week. A dominant season so far, with room for positive regression at the RB position, moves AGD back to the top of the Power Rankings after an extremely ill-advised one-week respite.
Prediction: AGD

Now it's time for the aforementioned chaos.

Levine Division Champ
This is essentially a three-way race, with the potential for all three teams to make the playoffs one way or another. Levine has the lead right now and should probably win it based on his schedule (Weissbard, Alan, Bennett), though the head-to-head with Alan could make things interesting. Alan's schedule is rough (AGD, Levine, Billy), so my guess is that he falls to third unless I completely shit the bed against my easier schedule (Ajay, Gutman, Barnard). These three teams are within 41 points of each other, so tiebreakers will be extremely important here.
Prediction: Levine

Zacherman Division Champ
Esco picked a hell of a time to get his shit together, and heads into Week 11 with a one-game lead and a relatively easy schedule (Gutman, Barnard, Weissbard). If he beats Gutman, I think he essentially clinches the division. If he loses this week, it opens the door for Nick, who should take down Z and Bennett before a crazy Rivalry Week with AGD. And despite being two games back, Marco has games against Ajay and Z remaining, so he could still have a say. This is the hardest division to predict, but I think Esco and Nick end up with the same record, which would likely give Nick the tiebreak based on points.
Prediction: Nick

Wild Cards
Despite a tough schedule (Esco, Kumpf, Marco), I think Gutman's squad is solid enough to hold onto at least one of the spots, especially given his point total. The second spot is wide open, and depends almost entirely on the outcomes above. If AGD, Levine, and Nick win their divisions, the second Wild Card is probably a race between Alan, Esco, Barnard, and myself. I can honestly see all of us ending up at 7-6, which would give me the edge right now given my 40+ point lead over the rest of the group. However, my team still has a ton of byes coming up, not to mention that I may have made one move too many for injured players. This one is a toss up to me, but based on the information we have now, I'm giving it to myself.
Predictions: Gutman and Kumpf

NiJo Spot
Giving myself the second Wild Card isn't just a selfish move, it also makes this spot the most fun. If everything above comes true, then the current top five scoring teams will already be in and the race for 6th will be incredibly fun. Alan has the lead, but he has a Packers bye and a diminishing RB situation to worry about. That leaves Weissbard (30 points behind) as the team most likely to benefit, and no one wants to see his team in the playoffs. He loses his Seahawks this week, but has held on to Kyler for a situation just like this (albeit in a matchup against San Fran). This will be a close one, but I think Weiss does just enough to keep his title defense alive.
Prediction: Weissbard


Trade Grade 17
Gutman receives Jacob Hollister
Kumpf receives Vance McDonald
Blockbuster alert! This trade was deemed unworthy of Esco's valuable time, so I'll do the write up myself. Gutman gets a potentially promising Seattle TE to make up for losing Dissly earlier this year, which gives his biggest position of need some upside. I get Kittle insurance that's not on a bye this week, and is better than anyone on the waiver wire. Nothing splashy, but filling a practical need for both teams.
Gutman Grade: B-
Kumpf Grade: C+

Trade Grade 18
Barnard receives Brian Hill and Julian Edelman
Marco receives Melvin Gordon
This is a fun trade in that Barnard finally caved and traded Melvin after three months of it being obvious that he should, and that he did it for a white receiver, but in practical terms I have questions on both sides. For Marco, is Melvin enough of an upgrade over Damien Williams to drop from Edeleman to Marvin at WR1? He has depth behind Marvin, but his WR floor has dropped considerably. For Barnard, is losing Melvin's upside worth some stability at the WR position? While Marco got the most valuable asset, I think Barnard's logic makes slightly more sense, but the trade makes each team's (admittedly long shot) Stevens Bowl odds worse.
Barnard Grade: C
Marco Grade: C+

Trade Grade 19
Bennett receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and Curtis Samuel
Weissbard receives Tyreek Hill
Just hours before the Trade Deadline, we got the blockbuster I feared, though it's not between any of the teams I anticipated. On the surface, it appears that both teams are out of it, but I've slept on it and now I really like this trade. To get to the NiJo spot, Bennett would need to pass 5 teams, which isn't really a reasonable ask, so his only playoff path is the Division/Wild Card. To do that, he needs the highest floor each week, instead of the highest ceiling overall, and nothing screams high floor/low ceiling more than Marlon Mack. His receivers are now a weekly crapshoot, but if he picks the right ones, he has a shot against an incredibly difficult schedule (Nick, AGD, Levine). He'll still need help to make it, but his 1.2% forecast is probably not that far off.

The real interesting team here is Weissbard. As mentioned above, his only path is the NiJo spot so it's all about points for our defending champ. None of the guys he gave up are likely to break 20 even in their best weeks, and Reek is a potentially 30+ points in his best weeks. The downgrade from Mack to Hyde isn't nothing, but I like the aggressiveness here.
Bennett Grade: B- (downgraded from a B because he fucked up the timing again)
Weissbard Trade: B- (downgraded from a B because he didn't find a way to get value for Kyler)


Week 11 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 2)

2. Gutman (Last Week: 4)

3. Kumpf (Last Week: 1)

4. Levine (Last Week: 5)


5. Esco (Last Week: 6)

6. Nick (Last Week: 3)

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)

8. Alan (Last Week: 7)

9. Billy (Last Week: 8)

10. Marco (Last Week: 11)

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 10)

13. Bennett (Last Week: 12)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


Matchup of the Week: Esco vs. Gutman
Despite all the potential chaos in the league, this week doesn't have many clear-cut huge matchups with far-reaching implications. That leaves us with the Draft Planner Bowl. A win for Gutman essentially clinches the playoffs for him, while throwing the Zacherman Division into further chaos. A win for Esco puts him in great position for a division title, while creating huge questions in both the Wild Card and NiJo spots.

The only real bye/injury question is that Gutman loses Carson to a bye, giving us the closest thing to a full strength matchup in this space in quite a while. Looking at matchups, Esco has a clear edge overall, and we have a couple of huge games in Dallas/Detroit, New Orleans/Tampa, and a potentially huge RB matchup in Philly/New England that will be the last game for each team. Gutman's team has been resilient enough to be matchup-proof most weeks, but I think the loss of Carson combined with Esco's surge will prove to be too much this week.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 4-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/11

NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) at Browns - Loss
49ers (-11.5) vs. Cardinals - Loss
Patriots (-3) at Eagles - Win
Bears (+7) at Rams - Loss
Last Week: 2-1-1
2019 Record: 28-25-1 (-0.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Wisconsin (-14) at Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-14) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Baylor (+10) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 7-0
2019 Record: 45-34-1 (+5.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Timberwolves (+3) at Pistons - Win
Celtics (-3.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
Grizzlies (+11) at Spurs - Win
Nuggets (-10) vs. Hawks - Loss
Jazz (-6.5) vs. Nets - Loss
Suns (+3) vs. Lakers - Loss
Celtics (-7) vs. Wizards - Push
Last Week: 2-2
2019 Record: 11-8-1 (+1.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
LSU (+3.5) at VCU - Win
Purdue (+1) at Marquette - Loss
Last Week: 4-2
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+1.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

Week 9 Recap

Time for my favorite post of the year, the Mock Trade Deadline Preview! Let's get right to it, starting with the trades that already happened, including one that counts as my final big swing at a Chef's Coat. Take it away Esco...

Trade Grade 15
Kumpf receives Jameis Winston, JD McKissic, and Adam Thielen
Marco receives Philip Rivers, Damien Williams, and Marvin Jones
Thielen is the best player in the trade, but also the biggest question mark. At minimum he will miss 40% of the 5 regular season games remaining (this week and his week 12 bye) and I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses more.  If he gets healthy and stays healthy this is a big win for Kumpf who probably would have one of the strongest starting 5 (2RB, 2WR, FLEX) in the league. However, this seems to be a nagging injury with an unpredictable timeline (see David Johnson, Cam Newton). The worst-case scenario is Thielen starts multiple games but leaves early as he did last week, costing your team the W (see Marco Week 9). I also hate the idea of relying on Jameis Winston in the fantasy playoffs. Despite his recent success, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is benched or has multiple negative scoring games with his history. Overall, high upside but also a much higher potential for a devastating loss in the playoffs so really a win for all of us.

Marco needs to likely win out to make the playoffs and this trade helps him get there. I think the biggest concern for me is honestly J.D. McKissic. The fact the Lions have seen Ty Johnson all year and instead gave the ball to Tra Carson off the street is a huge red flag and McKissic may end up getting to viable RB2 level before Ty ever does.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B

Trade Grade 16
Bennett receives Nyheim Hines, Tyrell Williams, and Gerald Everett
Esco receives James White, Trey Edmunds, and Dallas Goedert
This really messed up two mock trades for me, but I'll try to not let that skew my rating. I think the trade is fair overall, but don't really get the need for this specific trade for either team. Bennett loses a handcuff for Conner and adds another WR2 type to his slew of options there. I guess there's a TE upgrade? For Esco, he balances his roster better, but I would have thought he could get more for one of his WRs, even if he had to deal one of the top three. Can't really complain about either side, but nothing Earth-shattering here.
Bennett Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B

Mock Trade 1
Ajay receives Kenyan Drake and Emmanuel Sanders
Zacherman receives Tony Pollard and Odell Beckham Jr.
Let's get these guys out of the way early. This gives Ajay complete ownership of the backfields in Arizona and Washington, which is a pretty good symbol of his season so far. It also makes him less reliant on Cleveland, which has been an abusive relationship so far. As for Z, he adds Odell to his group of high ceiling players and gives him the best shot of winning a weekly prize and Rivalry Week. I've already talked too much about these teams.

Mock Trade 2
Gutman receives Evan Engram
Nick receives Miles Sanders
Given the teams involved here, and their NFL allegiances, the chances of this happening are less than zero, but it would help balance their rosters. Gutman's TE position has been snake bitten all year, and Engram, while potentially injured, raises the floor there considerably. He would take a hit at flex, but between Davante Parker and Hollywood Brown, his replacements aren't terrible. Nick would have the RB positions for the Panthers, Rams, and Eagles cornered, which would make him the bizarro Ajay. And his relatively depth at TE also allows him to diversify from his continued shocking reliance on the Giants passing game.

Mock Trade 3
Billy receives Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams
Levine receives Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott, and Royce Freeman
This would be a huge trade, and one that I don't think either team really needs to make, but would be fun nonetheless. Billy gets a true stud in Lamar, while only slightly downgrading at RB, and most importantly, not having to root for Brady anymore. Levine gets to make an upgrade at RB and remove the Packers RB situation from being a weekly headache. The downgrade from Lamar to Brady hurts, but Tom's been uncharacteristically average so far this year, so he may have some upside left..

Mock Trade 4
Alan receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and DK Metcalf
Weissbard receives David Montgomery, Davante Adams, and Cole Beasley
I'm as surprised as you are that Weissbard's trade doesn't include Kyler, does include two Bills WRs, and also involves him re-acquiring Montgomery, but here we are. Alan needs reliability at RB, and there is no one more reliable in terms of his role than Mack. Brown and Metcalf would combine with Sutton to give him inconsistent upside at WR, but I'd prefer my boom/bust players at receiver, especially when Alan is leading his division. Weissbard, on the other hand, is only making the playoffs in the NiJo spot, so he needs ceiling. If Davante is truly healthy, he can combine with the rest of Dan's roster to explode over the rest of the season. If he busts, Weiss probably wasn't making it anyway. This trade would take balls, so I doubt Alan would do it.

Mock Trade 5
AGD receives Devonta Freeman and TY Hilton
Barnard receives Dare Ogunbowale and Mike Evans
Another ballsy trade that I can't see happening, but there is logic here. AGD is the favorite right now, but their two weaknesses are over-reliance on two RBs that might not deliver, and Mike Evans' lack of consistency. Bringing in Freeman and Hilton would make their starting lineup extremely formidable, and would add the consistency needed for the playoffs. For Barnard, he gets a stud with a high ceiling in Evans, which his team lacks right now, and a player whose last name he won't even attempt to pronounce in public.


Week 10 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)

2. AGD (Last Week: 1)

3. Nick (Last Week: 4)

4. Gutman (Last Week: 5)

5. Levine (Last Week: 7)

6. Esco (Last Week: 6)

7. Alan (Last Week: 8)

8. Billy (Last Week: 3)

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)

10. Barnard  (Last Week: 11)

11. Marco (Last Week: 12)

12. Bennett (Last Week: 10)

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Alan (Bye) - Levine Division Champ
3. Gutman - Wild Card 1
4. Barnard - Wild Card 2
5. Nick - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule

Somehow, no one has been eliminated from the Division or Wild Card spots yet.


Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Levine
If Marco upsets Nick, the Zacherman Division could be destined for chaos, but this matchup conceivably affects the other five playoff spots. A Levine win will likely put him in the playoffs over Barnard, while a Barnard win makes it very difficult for Levine to claw his way back in. As for the matchup itself, similar to last week, the MotW is marred by a one-sided bye situation. Nick was able to overcome his byes thanks to CMC last week, but Barnard missing his best player and Sony seems like it will be too much. The path to victory for Barnard involves a Melvin heavy Chargers win on Thursday, followed by the Falcons putting up 30+ on the Saints, and the Panthers shutting down the Packers RBs. Even then, he will need Lamar to get hurt and the Colts D to break 20 against Miami. Not impossible, but not likely. Between the teams that have been my Rivals the past two years, I'm #Kursing my first one.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 3-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/4

NFL Bets
Raiders (+1.5) vs. Chargers - Win
Saints (-13) vs. Falcons - Loss
Ravens (-10) at Bengals - Win
Bills (+3) at Browns - Push
Last Week: 1-4
2019 Record: 27-22-1 (+1.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Washington (-10) at Oregon State - Win
Florida State (+3) at Boston College - Win
Purdue (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Miami (-6.5) vs. Louisville - Win
USC (+1.5) at Arizona State - Win
Kansas State (+7) at Texas - Win
Notre Dame (-7) at Duke - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2019 Record: 43-33-1 (+4.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (+1.5) at Chelsea - Loss
Liverpool (Pick) vs. Manchester City - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Newcastle (+160) vs Bournemouth - Win
Burnley (+125) vs. West Ham - Win
Manchester United (-145) vs. Brighton - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Chelsea (-0.5) vs. Ajax - Loss
Lyon (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Olympiacos (+2.5) at Bayern Munich - Win
Shakhtar (+0.5) at Dinamo Zagreb - Win
Atalanta (+1) vs. Manchester City - Win
Real Madrid (-2) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Red Star (+1) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Zenit (+210) vs. RB Leipzig - Loss
Valencia (Even) vs. Lille - Win
Dortmund (+120) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Lyon (+105) vs. Benfica - Win
Leverkusen (+195) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Hawks (+2.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Celtics (+1) at Spurs - Win
Hornets (+1.5) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 8-5 (+2.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Duke (+2.5) vs. Kansas (Neutral Site) - Win
Virginia Tech (+7) at Clemson - Win
NC State (-7) vs. Georgia Tech - Loss
Wisconsin (+5) vs. St. Mary's - Win
North Carolina (-9.5) vs. Notre Dame - Win
Baylor (-5) vs. Washington (Neutral Site) - Loss
2019-20 Record: 4-2 (+1.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

MLS Spread Bets
Final 2019 Record: 15-12-5 (+0.33 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Final 2019 Record: 9-10 (-0.75 units)