Gambling Corner - Week of 12/31

NFL Bets
Colts (+1) at Texans - Win
Seahawks (+2) at Cowboys - Push
Chargers (+3) at Ravens - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Eagles - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-1-1
2018 Record: 45-33-6 (+5.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Prop Bets Check-In
Wins
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Packers under 10 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Losses
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Jimmy G most passing yards
Jay Ajayi most rushing yards
Antonio Brown most receiving yards
Falcons to win Super Bowl
Panthers to win NFC
Eagles to win NFC East
Push
Patriots over 11 wins
Still In Play
Texans to win Super Bowl
Chiefs to win Super Bowl
Bears to win NFC

Overall win total projections went 18-12-2, with my bets going 11-2-1.

NCAA Football Bets
Military Bowl: Virginia Tech (+6) vs. Cincinnati - Win
Sun Bowl: Stanford (-5) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Redbox Bowl: Michigan State (+2) vs. Oregon - Win
Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State (+9) vs. Missouri - Win
Holiday Bowl: Utah (-7) vs. Northwestern - Loss
Gator Bowl: NC State (+7) vs. Texas A&M - Loss
Outback Bowl: Iowa (+7) vs. Mississippi State - Win
Citrus Bowl: Penn State (-6) vs. Kentucky - Loss
Fiesta Bowl: Central Florida (+8) vs. LSU - Push
Rose Bowl: Washington (+7) vs. Ohio State - Win
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (-12) vs. Texas - Loss
Last Week: 6-5
Bowl Record: 21-17-1
2018 Record: 67-67-3 (-9.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pacers (-11.5) vs. Hawks - Loss
Rockets (-4.5) vs. Grizzlies - Win
Kings (+3) vs. Blazers - Loss
Bulls (+3) vs. Magic - Loss
Bucks (-13.5) vs. Hawks - Win
Thunder (+2.5) at Blazers - Win
Raptors (+6) at Bucks - Win
Suns (+4) vs. Hornets - Loss
Last Week: 3-3
2018-19 Record: 48-41 (-2.38 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Creighton (+4) at Providence - Win
Virginia Tech (-9.5) vs. Notre Dame - Win
Nebraska (+2) at Maryland - Push
Seton Hall (+5) at Xavier - Win
Texas Tech (-4.5) at West Virginia - Loss
Michigan State (-11.5) vs. Northwestern - Win
Iowa State (-4) at Oklahoma State - Win
Kansas State (-2) vs. Texas - Loss
Nevada (-7.5) vs. Utah State - Win
Iowa (+10) at Purdue - Loss
NC State (-2) at Miami - Win
Michigan (-10) vs. Penn State - Win
Creighton (+6.5) at Butler - Loss
Michigan State (-2) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (-3.5) at Rutgers - Win
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Oklahoma State - Push
Virginia (-7) vs. Florida State - Win
TCU (-7.5) vs Baylor - Loss
Kansas (+2) at Iowa State - Loss
Colorado (+7.5) at Arizona State - Loss
Duke (-15.5) vs. Clemson - Win
Nebraska (-3.5) at Iowa - Loss
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Penn State - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018-19 Record: 46-33-4 (+4.35 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+0.5) at Huddersfield - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 27-21-6 (+0.61 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Bournemouth (+165) vs. Watford - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 11-12 (+1.65 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Stevens Bowl Recap/Offseason Preview

Congrats to Fireball Dan on bringing home his first Chef's Coat and preventing a repeat for Levine. It was a huge oversight on my part to not hype this up as a potential revenge match after Weissbard maliciously dumped a beer on Levine's laptop during the draft.

Weissbard's win was even more impressive after he lost Gurley and had no auction money left for C.J. Anderson after blowing it all on Robby Anderson. The Anderson debacle ended up working out in his favor, as Robby tore up and Levine couldn't wait for the Gurley decision to decide on starting his other RBs. The end result was close as expected, but the journey there was anything but conventional.

On a side note, Zacherman and I can take solace in the fact that we would have lost the Stevens Bowl to Weissbard and Levine respectively, so the heartbreak of the semi-finals doesn't hurt quite so much. Additionally, I think we need some league rule to cover what happens when the Stevens Bowl champ has Robert Woods on their team. My initial idea is that they need to share a bed with Rob Woods at the next draft, but I'm open to other ideas.

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 18-9

As we know, there is no real offseason in this league, so here is the tentative schedule for the next few months:
- January: Season recap posts (pending my available free time)
- February: Winter Meetings
- March: Draft Location Madness
- June: Rivalry Week
- July: Draft Weekend Room Draft

All dates subject to change at my discretion.

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/24

NFL Bets
Ravens (-6) vs. Browns - Loss
Chiefs (-13) vs. Raiders - Win
Rams (-10) vs. 49ers - Win
Titans (+4) vs. Colts - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018 Record: 43-32-5 (+4.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Independence Bowl: Duke (+4) vs. Temple - Win
Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin (+3) vs. Miami - Win
Texas Bowl: Baylor (+4) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Music City Bowl: Auburn (-3) vs. Purdue - Win
Camping World Bowl: West Virginia (+2) vs. Syracuse - Loss
Alamo Bowl: Washington State (-3) vs. Iowa State - Loss
Peach Bowl: Michigan (-6) vs. Florida - Loss
Belk Bowl: Virginia (+6) vs. South Carolina - Win
Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State (-1) vs. Nevada - Loss
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame (+13) vs. Clemson - Loss
Orange Bowl: Oklahoma (+14) vs. Alabama - Win
Last Week: 5-6
Bowl Record: 16-12
2018 Record: 62-62-2 (-8.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets

Last Week: 3-3
2018-19 Record: 44-37 (-1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets

Last Week: 4-2
2018-19 Record: 33-25-2 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (+0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 0-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 26-21-6 (-0.16 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Southampton (+130) vs. West Ham - Loss
Fulham (+110) vs. Huddersfield - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 11-11 (+2.65 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Stevens Bowl Preview

Not gonna lie, that one hurt. After getting the benefit of Saquon's first real dud of the season and getting a big day from my Mack attack, all I needed was a 25th percentile performance from Cam to win my first playoff game and make the Stevens Bowl. Instead I got a 5th percentile performance, and I wasted likely the best team I'll have in the next decade.

Things were even worse for Zacherman, who had the most electric QB/WR combination since Brady and Moss in 2007, and still couldn't make the Stevens Bowl.

This leaves us Weissbard vs. Levine.

Weissbard is trying to complete the classic worst-to-first storyline in the vein of the 2018 Bears, 2017 Jaguars, and 2001 Rams. Some of those teams fell short, but they were all feel-good stories in the moment.

Levine is the Patriots personified. Starting the year below the radar, he slowly but surely made his way into the playoffs, and is poised to be our first repeat champion. If he wins again, we may need to add an apostrophe to our title game and start calling it Steven's Bowl.

While Zacherman and I may go down as the two best teams to not even make the finals, we still have two very worthy contenders facing off through Christmas Eve.

Weissbard! Levine! Saquon! Dakota! It's The Stevens Bowl!

(Note that while we are certainly not the tallest league as a whole, this is the first time where the annual Stevens Bowl Elf Yourself video isn't as funny as it should be. Z and I would have been waaaay more enjoyable and you all know it. I swear I'm not bitter.)

Stevens Bowl Preview

3. Weissbard vs. 4. Levine

Quarterback
The Dak roller coaster is due for a peak based on its every other week pace for the last couple months. On cue, he gets to face a terrible Tampa defense, at home, with a lot to prove. I see a big day coming for the Cowboys in general, so the only question is whether Dak or Zeke benefits more. That question doesn't exist for DeShaun, who is the engine that is driving Houston towards a potential bye. The Eagles D has been terrible all year, and while they had a resurgence last week, they still let up a ton of points. Both of these guys are easy top ten plays this week, but it's too close to call for me.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks
Weissbard's dynamic duo get some pretty easy matchups, which as always will be the primary focus of his week. Levine has a much more complicated situation. Mixon and Coleman led him to the Stevens Bowl, but McGuire and Jamaal are above average plays this week too. If Levine's three guys can outscore Weissbard's two, this should be a wrap. I don't think it comes to that, but this isn't as much in Weissbard's favor as it usually is.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This is weirdly a mirror image of the RB situation. Levine has the studs this time, but Weissbard's depth and flex option could make it interesting. The major wild card here is if Aaron Rodgers isn't himself, which would pretty much tank Levine's chances.
Slight Edge: Levine

Tight End
Vance McDonald was a huge part of getting Levine to the Stevens Bowl. I don't think history repeats itself, and I really like Cook's matchup.
Edge: Weissbard

D/ST
Weissbard has a clear matchup advantage here, with a solid Cowboys D getting a turnover-prone Bucs team at home. Levine has the more talented option in Baltimore, but they travel to LA to play an explosive Chargers offense. He also has the Eagles as a potential Deshaun counterpoint as an option. Whoever he goes with will have a lower ceiling than Dallas.
Edge: Weissbard

Pick
This is super close, and should make for an entertaining Stevens Bowl. The only "clear" advantages are both to Weissbard, but also are at the fickle positions of tight end and defense. I have a weird feeling that the Rams will continue to struggle against Arizona, enough to crack the door open for Levine, but if Rodgers is limited and Adams is not effective, I can't confidently pick my rival. When it's this close, I'll go with Gurley, Barkley, and the immortal Jared Cook getting last licks.
Pick: Weissbard

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 17-9

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/17

NFL Bets
Bengals (+9) at Browns - Win
Jaguars (+5) at Dolphins - Win
Bears (-4) at 49ers - Win
Saints (-6) vs. Steelers - Loss
Broncos (-2) at Raiders - Loss
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 41-30-5 (+4.96 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Boca Raton Bowl - Northern Illinois (+3) vs. UAB - Loss
Frisco Bowl - Ohio (-3) vs. San Diego State - Win
Gasparilla Bowl - South Florida (+4) vs. Marshall - Loss
Bahamas Bowl - Toledo (+0.5) vs. Florida International - Loss
Potato Bowl - Western Michigan (+12) vs. BYU - Loss
Birmingham Bowl - Memphis (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Loss
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston (+5) vs. Army - Loss
Dollar General Bowl - Troy (+1) vs. Buffalo - Win
Hawaii Bowl - Louisiana Tech (+1) vs. Hawaii - Win
Quick Lane Bowl - Minnesota (+6) vs. Georgia Tech - Win
Cheez-It Bowl - TCU (+1) vs. California - Win
Last Week: 5-1
Bowl Record: 10-7
2018 Record: 56-57-2 (-8.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Thunder (-12.5) vs. Bulls - Win
76ers (+3) at Spurs - Loss
Blazers (+3) at Clippers - Win
Pacers (-12) vs. Cavs - Loss
Celtics (-12) vs. Suns - Loss
Jazz (+4) vs. Warriors - Win
Last Week: 7-2
2018-19 Record: 44-37 (-1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. Arizona State - Win
Missouri (+4.5) vs. Xavier - Win
NC State (+3) vs. Auburn - Loss
UCLA (+9) at Cincinnati - Win
Texas Tech (+10.5) vs. Duke (Neutral Site) - Loss
Houston (-4) vs. Utah State - Win
Last Week: 4-8
2018-19 Record: 33-25-2 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Arsenal - Push
West Ham (Pick) vs. Watford - Loss
Huddersfield (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-21-7 (+1.51 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Spurs (+125) at Everton - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 10-10 (+2.55 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

Semi-Final Preview

The Final Four is here, and I don't think anyone can complain about the teams that made it this far. Which is a change from recent history:

• Last year, we saw Esco make a run from the 6 seed to the Stevens Bowl
• In 2016, Levine was 9-4 with a bottom four point total (but still knocked me out of the playoffs)
• In 2015,  Z was 8-5 with a bottom five point total

It's been four years since we saw such a deserving group of semi-finalists, and it's the first time in FALAFEL history that we have the top four scorers making it this far. I'm obviously biased, but this suggests that our current scoring/playoff qualification system is working to both create maximum drama/excitement while still rewarding the most deserving teams. Either that, or it's just a random year where everything worked out.

On to the previews...

Semi-Final Preview

1. Zacherman vs. 4. Levine

Quarterback
For Levine, Dak has been on a bizarre every other week run. Since Week 7, in his odd number games he's broken 20 points every time, while in his even number games he's scored between 14.2 and 14.8. This is an even number game, with a mediocre matchup so we all know what to expect. Z has Mahomes on a Thursday against a good Chargers team, but if he can complete a no-look pass in the NFL, he can get more than 15 points.
Edge: Z

Runningbacks
This is Zacherman's Achilles heel. His pile of mediocrity is likely to produce between 10-30 points, but the ceiling just isn't there. I'd probably go with White and Edwards, but Adams and Howard may have a higher floor in terms of touches. Good luck with that one. Levine needs to shine here if he has a chance. Mixon and Tevin get nice matchups, but they've been all over the place this year. And it's hard to project much of anything for AP in that offense, but the Jags did let Henry run wild last week.
Edge: Levine 

Wide Receivers
Four of this season's top eight receivers will take part in this matchup, and all of them are banged up and/or facing tough defenses. If any of these guys goes off, that team will have a significant advantage, but I weirdly think they're all primed to disappoint.
Edge: Even

Tight End
Z getting Ebron as a top five tight end this year is the most maddening thing about this season.
Edge: Z

D/ST
Three good options here, as Levine gets a stout Ravens D against the potentially high-flying Bucs, and Z has to choose between the Jags feasting on the Skins or the Hawks taking on Mullens and Co. I expect high scores from all of these teams, but I lean towards Zacherman's options.
Pick: Z

Pick
Levine is my rival, and the defending champ, so I'm biased against him to begin with. That said, I'd prefer to face him if I get past Weissbard into the Stevens Bowl. I think he has a path to victory, but there are just too many things lining up nicely for Z. We're gonna have yet another first-time champ.
Pick: Z

2. Kumpf vs. 3. Weissbard

Quarterback
Deshaun has had a roller coaster season, but he seems to be locked in as of late. Cam has been a stud once again, but is coming off two of his lowest scores of the season, and may be injured. While I like getting the benefit of Cam on MNF, I can't pick between these two.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks
Zeke's season has been impressive and he faces a middle of the road defense in Indy. Gurley and Saquon think that's cute.
Big Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
Weiss gets Woods facing a ravaged Eagles secondary, but Tate just lost Wentz, and the rest of his WR options are a joke. Assuming Xavien Howard is out again, Diggs is my single biggest advantage in this matchup, and I have to assume Miami has a letdown after the Miracle. Landry probably shot his load last week, but it was good to see some signs of life, and he may be the second best receiver in this matchup.
Edge: Kumpf

Tight End
This is where we find out if Kelce is matchup proof. If he balls out on Thursday, I like my chances this week. Cook gets a nice matchup, and is on a hell of a run, but he needs to be at his best to keep up.
Edge: Kumpf 

D/ST
Weissbard is betting on matchups over talent in going with the Lions. I'm riding the Bears til they let me down, even against Rodgers.
Edge: Kumpf

Pick
Going position by position, it looks like I have the edge. However, Weissbard's advantage at RB is so enormous that it could swing the matchup by itself. On top of that, each of us have at least one player going in all seven game windows, starting with Kelce on Thursday, through Weiss's Rams on SNF and Cam on MNF. That's just constant stress in what should be a close matchup. I have a feeling that it comes down to Cam, and he just hasn't looked right the last few weeks. Call it a #Kurse, or call it reverse Smith-Schuster, but I think my first playoff win continues to elude me.
Pick: Weissbard

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 16-8

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/10

NFL Bets
Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Broncos (-3) vs. Browns - Loss
Lions (+3) at Bills - Win
Ravens (-7) vs. Bucs - Win
Seahawks (-4) vs. 49ers - Loss
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 38-28-5 (+4.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Alcorn State - Loss
Cure Bowl: Tulane (-3) vs. Louisiana - Win
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (-7) vs. North Texas - Win
Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State (-6) vs. Arizona State - Win
Camellia Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+3) vs. Georgia Southern - Win
New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-7) vs. Middle Tennessee - Win
Last Week: 5-2
Bowl Record: 5-1
2018 Record: 51-51-2 (-7.14 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Bucks (-11.5) vs. Cavs - Win
Kings (+5) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Clippers (+4) at Spurs - Loss
Pacers (+6) at 76ers - Win
Nets (-1.5) vs. Wizards - Win
Blazers (+5.5) vs. Raptors - Win
Hornets (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Loss
Nets (-6) vs. Hawks - Win
Kings (+7) at Mavericks - Win
Last Week: 6-5
2018-19 Record: 41-34 (-0.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Houston (-3.5) vs. LSU - Win
Oregon (-6.5) vs. San Diego - Win
Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Old Dominion - Loss
Kansas (-6.5) vs. Villanova - Loss
Purdue (-5.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Loss
Penn State (+5.5) vs. NC State - Loss
Washington (+9) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Oklahoma (-9) vs. USC - Win
Arizona (-6.5) vs. Baylor - Loss
St. Mary's (+4.5) vs. LSU (Neutral Site) - Win
Houston (-7) vs. Saint Louis - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Last Week: 11-8-1
2018-19 Record: 29-23-2 (+0.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Tottenham - Win
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 4-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-19-6 (+0.49 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 3-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (+1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (-1) vs. Napoli - Win
Inter Milan (-1.5) vs. PSV - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) vs. Dortmund - Loss
Roma (Pick) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
Valencia (Pick) vs. Manchester United - Win
Shahktar (Pick) vs. Lyon - Push
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
Schalke 04 (+105) vs. Lokomotiv - Win
Bayern Munich (+100) at Ajax - Loss
Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)

First Round Preview

It's that time of year where we drop from 14 teams to 6 in pursuit of the elusive chef's coat, or in Belfer/Levine's case, a chef's hat. Zacherman deservedly won the regular season prize, as his team is still absurd on paper, but somehow my team had a better season. My four losses were by a combined 19.8 points and my team never scored less than 93.7, while Z's two losses were by a combined 33.8 points and he shit the bed at 75.4 points in one random week. Both of our teams would be worthy champions in any given year, and we are joined by strong Weissbard, Levine, and Belfer teams. Also Marco's here.

For some reason this fact escaped me until right now, but Zacherman has won back-to-back regular season championships. Looking even further, four of the six playoff teams returned from last year, Kumpf made the playoffs three years in a row, Z made the playoffs four years in a row, and Levine has made the playoffs five years in a row! There really is an upper class to this league, and the run that Levine and Z in particular have been on is truly incredible. On the flip side, Ajay, Barnard, and Reap haven't made the playoffs since 2015, the longest droughts in the league.

Playoff Odds

After Week 13:
We have never had a team start 13-0, 12-1, or 11-2
100% (2/2) of 10-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 9-4 teams make the playoffs
89% (8/9) of 8-5 teams make the playoffs
55% (6/11) of 7-6 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 6-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 5-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-9 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 3-10 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-11, 1-12, or 0-13

We had a few notable performances this year, as Z finished as the first 11-2 team in the ESPN era, and Marco becomes the second 6-7 team to make the playoffs. BAM showed up big to avoid the first 2-11 start, and knocked Bennnett out of the playoffs in the process.

The Hot Potato does not extend to the playoffs, so Alan takes home his second title with 51.3 points. I would not blame him for waiting until we receive Billy's card to send his own, but he's still on the hook.

First Round Preview

As always, I'll do position-by-position breakdowns for each team in honor of the late Dr. Z.

3. Weissbard vs. 6. Belfer

Quarterback
Goff was a huge trade acquisition by Belfer at midseason, but he nearly cost him the playoffs last week with a dud against Detroit. Things don't get much easier this week, as the Rams travel to Chicago to play outside in primetime on SNF. The Bears aren't as formidable as the elite defenses of the past (see: The Giants beating them), but Goff is still probably good a for two turnovers. Weissbard has a better situation with Deshaun taking on a shell-shocked Colts team at home. Houston's offense hasn't been dominant, but Watson has exploded a few times this year. I don't see that happening this week, but I'm still taking the easier matchup here.
Edge: Weissbard

Runningbacks
This discussion is easy, as Weiss destroys everyone at RB. The Bears come into play for Gurley, but he's still a lock for 15+, and Saquon should benefit from facing Mark Sanchez. Belfer was smart enough to handcuff John Conner, but he should expect a falloff with Jaylen Samuels, and Ingram hasn't been reliable but does have a juicy matchup.
Big Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This discussion is as easy as the RB discussion, just the other way around. Belfer's duo of AB and Evans haven't been as studly as expected, but they're still no-doubt WR1s with relatively easy matchups. Weissbard might have a ray of light with Golden Tate's performance on MNF, but that just counteracts David Moore's goose egg. Woods has to deal with the same Bears D that affects Goff and Gurley, so his ceiling is low.
Big  Edge: Belfer

Tight End
Trey Burton/Ian Thomas vs. Jared Cook. Ew.
Edge: Weissbard

Flex
Neither team has great flex options, but Belfer's choice between Blount/Richard/Sanu/Tre'Quan is superior to Weissbard's Moore/Penny/Gallup/Pettis.
Edge: Belfer

Pick
I like that this game comes down to SNF, and that all the relevant players are on one team. Gurley has been matchup-proof, while Goff has had random blips through the year (which, to be fair, hurts Woods as well). If Conner was healthy, I'd like Belfer's Steelers to put up 40 between them, but Samuels' workload questions give me just enough pause to favor Weissbard and end Belfer's Cinderalla run.
Pick: Weissbard

4. Levine vs. 5. Marco

Quarterback
Kirk on the road in Seattle on MNF is a terrifying thought for Marco. It's a huge game, but I've seen nothing this year to make me think Kirk can rise to the occasion. Dak has been equally inconsistent, but faces a Philly D that's about to start Charlie Day at cornerback. I don't think either QB blows up, but I like Dak's chances better.
Edge: Levine

Runningbacks/Flex
Both teams are built around their stable of solid to spectacular RBs, so I'll include flex in this discussion assuming Levine doesn't start Ridley or Sammy. Kamara is the clear #1 here, and he should eat against a Bucs team that he nearly scored 40 on in Week 1. After that, the breakdown is iffy. The Chargers probably have the second best matchup, but assuming Melvin doesn't play, Justin Jackson has a lower ceiling than Coleman and maybe AP (who should get roughly 60 carries so that Mark Sanchez doesn't have to throw the ball). Joe Mixon is banged up and facing the Chargers, so this decision comes down to Dalvin. I was super high on him before the season, but got lucky to get rid of him when I did. If Minny has a chance, it has to be Cook who carries them, and I have a feeling he shows up big.
Edge: Marco

Wide Receivers
LOL
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
C.J. Uzomah/Vernon Davis vs. Vance McDonald. Ew.
Edge: Even

Pick
Marco gets last licks with Cousins and Cook, but unless Levine shits the bed, he's likely going to be down by about 40. If Melvin Gordon was playing, I'd give Marco a chance. But even if Gordon somehow suits up, he's not likely to put up the points necessary to overcome Levine's superior depth.
Pick: Levine

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 14-8

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/3

NFL Bets
Jaguars (+5) at Titans - Loss
Bills (-3) vs. Jets - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Rams - Win
Seahawks (-3) vs Vikings - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2018 Record: 35-25-5 (+5.01 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
As I did last year, I will be betting every bowl game starting next week.
I lost my Ohio State +1200 National Title bet, but I still have Oklahoma +4500, and hedge with a huge bet on Alabama -225. I also have Tua at +160 to win the Heisman.
Last Week: 5-2
2018 Record: 46-50-2 (-10.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Pistons (+4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Nuggets (+8) at Raptors - Win
Blazers (+3) at Mavericks - Loss
Nuggets (+2.5) at Hornets - Loss
Cavs (+4.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Nets (+9) vs. Raptors - Win
Nets (+4) at Knicks - Win
Blazers (-2) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Pistons (+3) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Bucks (+7) at Raptors - Win
Spurs (+5) vs. Jazz - Win
Last Week: 4-5
2018-19 Record: 34-32 (-4.13 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NBA Win Total Check-In
The Good
Celtics under 59
Hornets over 35.5
Warriors under 62.5
Rockets under 56.5
Pacers under 47.5
Magic over 31
Spurs under 43.5

The Bad
Nets over 32
Lakers under 48.5
T-Wolves over 41.5
76ers under 53.5

The Ugly
Hawks over 23.5
Mavericks under 35.5
Jazz over 49.5

NCAA Basketball Bets
Michigan State (-9) vs. Iowa - Win
Indiana (+2.5) at Penn State - Win
Oklahoma (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Win
Providence (+5) at Boston College - Win
West Virginia (+3.5) vs. Florida (Neutral Site) - Loss
Michigan (-5.5) at Northwestern - Loss
Ohio State (-5.5) at Illinois - Win
Villanova (-8.5) vs. Temple - Win
Nebraska (-3.5) at Minnesota - Loss
Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. Washington - Loss
USC (+3.5) vs. TCU - Loss
Seton Hall (+7) vs. Kentucky - Win
Oklahoma (-6.5) vs. Wichita State - Win
Villanova (-10.5) vs. St. Joseph's - Win
Houston (+3.5) at Oklahoma State - Win
Maryland (-8) vs. Loyola - Win
Wisconsin (+3) at Marquette - Loss
Arizona (+3) at Alabama - Push
Virginia (-13.5) vs. VCU - Loss
Gonzaga (-3) vs. Tennessee (Neutral Site) - Loss
Last Week: 7-4
2018-19 Record: 25-15-2 (+5.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Arsenal - Push
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at West Ham - Loss
Burnley (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Cardiff (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
Chelsea (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Win
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 22-19-6 (-1.31 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (-275) vs. Southampton - Win
Liverpool (-165) at Bournemouth - Win
Tottenham (+100) at Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (-1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 16-9-3 (+3.67 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-4.11 units)

Week 12 Recap/Rivalry Week Predictions

Lots to get through this week, so let's jump right in.

Playoff Odds

After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams make the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams make the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of  4-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 12-0

After Week 13:
We have never had a team start 13-0, 12-1, or 11-2
100% (2/2) of 10-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 9-4 teams make the playoffs
89% (8/9) of 8-5 teams make the playoffs
55% (6/11) of 7-6 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 6-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 5-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 4-9 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 3-10 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-11, 1-12, or 0-13

A few potential firsts for us this year. Zacherman has a chance to be the first 11-2 team in the modern era, while BAM has the opposite chance at being the first 2-11 team. Additionally, we're guaranteed to have at best a 6-7 team make the playoffs (our second ever), with the potential for our first 5-8 team. Absolutely great division drafting by Marco.

Alan still holds the Hot Potato with 51.3 points.

Now on to the good stuff...

Playoff Scenarios

If the playoffs started today, the bracket would be:
1. Zacherman (Bye) - Best Record and Chosen People Division Winner
2. Kumpf (Bye) - 2nd Best Record and Levine Division Winner
3. Weissbard - 3rd Best Record
4. Levine - 4th Best Record
5. Marco - Chocolate Starfish Division Winner
6. Belfer - Most Points of Remaining Teams

Now a team-by-team look at what could happen in Week 13, in order of record, as well as which teams everyone should root for (besides themselves obviously) and against. For these purposes, I'm going to assume that no team can make up more than 50 points on any other team. I'm also assuming that it's preferable to get the best seed possible, however the 4 seed is likely preferable to the 3 seed as they get to face the Chocolate Starfish division winner instead of the NiJo Rule winner.

1. Zacherman
Already clinched the #1 seed, bye, and regular season prize. Week 13 only matters for him to win his Rivalry Week matchup with Ajay and get fifty more dollars. HOWEVER, if Z thinks Ajay is a weaker team than Marco/Alan/Reap, he could throw the matchup to boost Ajay's chances. If the Chocolate Starfish division winner somehow beats me, Weissbard, or Levine in the first round, they would face Z in the semi-finals. Between that and $50, I think we all know which side Z will choose.
Needs to root for: Injuries to his competitors?

2. Kumpf
Already clinched the playoffs. Can clinch a bye by beating Levine, or by losing and Weissbard also losing. Given my point total, I can't fall below 3rd place.
Needs to root for: Esco
Needs to root against: Weissbard

3. Weissbard
Already clinched the playoffs. Can clinch a bye by beating Esco and Kumpf losing. If he loses, Weissbard can only fall to 4th if Levine beats Kumpf and outscores Weissbard by 34.9.
Needs to root for: Levine, but not too much.
Needs to root against: Kumpf

Now it gets interesting. Remember that the 5 seed is reserved for the Chocolate Starfish Division winner.

4. Levine
Can end up anywhere from 3rd to out of the playoffs
3 seed: Levine wins, Weissbard loses, and Levine outscores Weissbard by 34.9.
4 seed: Levine wins, Weissbard loses, and Levine doesn't outscore Weissbard by 34.9 OR Levine loses, Bennett loses, and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4.
6 seed: Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4.
Out of the playoffs: Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4
Needs to root for: BAM, Esco
Needs to root against: Belfer, Bennett, Weissbard

5. Bennett
Can end up anywhere from 4th to out of the playoffs
4 seed: Bennett wins, Levine loses.
6 seed: Levine wins and Bennett outscores Belfer by 34.3.
Out of the playoffs: Levine wins and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3
Needs to root for: Kumpf
Needs to root against: Belfer, Levine

6. Belfer
Can end up anywhere for 4th to out of the playoffs
4 seed: Levine loses, Bennett loses, Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4, and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3
6 seed: Levine wins and Bennett doesn't outscore Belfer by 34.3 OR Levine loses, Bennett wins, and Belfer outscores Levine by 27.4.
Out of the playoffs: Levine loses, Bennett wins and Belfer doesn't outscore Levine by 27.4 OR Levine wins and Bennett outscores Belfer by 34.3
Needs to root for: BAM
Needs to root against: Bennett
It's complicated: Levine

7. Gutman
Can only make the playoffs as the 6th seed
6 seed: Gutman wins, Bennett loses, and Gutman outscores Bennett by 25.1
Out of the playoffs: Gutman loses OR Gutman wins and Bennett wins OR Gutman wins, Bennett loses, and Gutman doesn't outscore Bennett by 25.1
Needs to root for: BAM
Needs to root against: Bennett

8. Barnard
Can't make the playoffs without outscoring Bennett by over 50. If we're considering that possible, his situation is the same as Gutman, just with an additional 26.7 points necessary. He would also need to outscore Gutman by 26.7, and without Fournette, I don't see that happening.

Now we get to the Chocolate Starfish Division Championship

9. Marco
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed:. Marco wins OR Marco, Ajay, Alan and Reap all lose
Out of the playoffs: Marco loses, and Ajay, Alan, or Reap wins
Needs to root for: Zacherman, Barnard, Belfer
Needs to root against: Ajay, Alan, Reap

10. Ajay
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Ajay wins, Marco loses, Alan doesn't win and outscore Ajay by 43.5, and Reap doesn't win and outscore Ajay by 47.1
Out of playoffs: Ajay loses OR Marco wins OR Ajay wins, Marco loses, and Alan wins and outscores Ajay by 43.5 and/or Reap wins and outscores Ajay by 47.1
Needs to root for: Gutman, Barnard, Belfer
Needs to root against: Marco, Alan, Reap

11. Alan
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Alan wins, Marco loses, Ajay either loses or wins and gets outscored by Alan by 43.5, Reap either loses or wins and doesn't outscore Alan by 3.6
Out of playoffs: Alan loses OR Marco wins OR Alan wins, Marco loses, Ajay wins and doesn't get outscored by Alan by 43.5 and/or Reap wins and outscores Alan by 3.6
Needs to root for: Gutman, Belfer, Zacherman
Needs to root against: Marco, Reap, Ajay

12. Reap
Can only make the playoffs as the 5th seed
5 seed: Reap wins, Marco loses, Ajay either loses or wins and gets outscored by Reap by 47.1, Alan either loses or wins and gets outscored by Reap by 3.6
Out of playoffs: Reap loses OR Marco wins OR Reap wins, Marco loses, Ajay wins and doesn't get outscored by Reap by 47.1 and/or Alan wins and doesn't get outscored by Reap by 3.6
Needs to root for: Gutman, Barnard, Zacherman
Needs to root against: Marco, Alan, Ajay

13. Esco
Literally the least interesting team in the league. Can't make the playoffs, and can't get the Shot Spot. All he can do is win $50 by beating Weissbard and making sure he doesn't get the bye.

14. BAM
Playing for $50 and spite on Bennett, as well as avoiding the only 2-11 season in the ESPN era.

Biggest Matchups of the Week - All Of Them

Quick picks for each Rivalry Week matchup.

Kumpf vs. Levine
Chris Thompson's much anticipated return may cut into AP's workload enough to avoid another MNF collapse for my team. However, AJ Green being injured and/or playing with Jeff Driskel lowers my ceiling enough to make it close. Matchups still are in my favor, and I have to beat Levine at some point right?
Pick: Kumpf

Esco vs. Weissbard
Weissbard's wasteland at receiver should at least open the door for an Esco team that hilariously looks as good as it had all season. The Bears may keep Saquon in check as well, so if Brandin Cooks can steal a TD or two from Gurley and Woods, I actually like Esco's chances. Is this the beginning of the end for Fireball Dan?
Pick: Esco

BAM vs. Bennett
The Eagles playing on MNF means this won't be decided until the last minute. Like Esco, I actually don't mind BAM's team right now, especially against Bennett's Jekyll and Hyde squad. BAM has solid matchups too, but I can't in good conscience pick a team with double digit losses.
Pick: Bennett

Alan vs. Barnard
There's a chance that Alan trading for Emmanuel Sanders single handedly leads him to the playoffs. There's also a chance that the highlight of Barnard's season will be eliminating Alan from the playoffs and using his $50 for a lap dance in front of Alan during next year's draft weekend, as the Muffman calls the stripper a bitch for putting so much weight on Rivalry Week.
Pick: Barnard

Belfer vs. Reap
Per usual, the Steelers will dictate things for Belfer, and I can't say I like the matchup against the Chargers. Combine that with Reap getting Ekeler as an RB1 and this week has the potential to be a nightmare for Belfer.
Pick: Reap

Gutman vs. Marco
The saddest matchup of the weekend could somehow end up with two playoff teams. TNF is enormous for these teams, and the New Orleans scoring distribution will likely decide the matchup. Dallas has been surprisingly solid at defending the pass, and while I don't think that will slow down Brees and Co. too much, it could easily mean that Kamara eliminates Mara.
Pick: Marco

Ajay vs. Zacherman
Z starts his unprecedented double bye week with his Chiefs feasting on Oakland, which could be enough to outscore Ajay on their own. Ajay has solid matchups across the board, but the Jags have been primed for a bounce back for weeks, and that would be poor timing for Luck and Hilton. Ajay's late season run has been admirable, but if Z plays his A-Squad, it will fall short.
Pick: Zacherman

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 10-5

Gambling Corner - Week of 11/26

NFL Bets
Ravens (+1) at Falcons - Win
Bucs (+4) vs. Panthers - Win
Texans (-6) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (-10) vs. 49ers - Win
Redskins (+6) at Eagles - Loss
Last Week: 1-3
2018 Record: 33-23-5 (+5.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NFL Prop Check-In
Already Won
Packers under 10 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins

Likely Wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins

TBD
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
Bears to win the NFC

Likely Losses
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Panthers to win the NFC
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving yards (currently 14th, 431 yards behind leader)

Already Lost
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing yards
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing yards

NCAA Football Bets
Utah (+6) vs. Washington (Neutral Site) - Loss
Oklahoma (-8) vs. Texas (Neutral Site) - Win
Stanford (-3) at California - Win
Georgia (+14) vs. Alabama (Neutral Site) - Win
Fresno State (+3) at Boise State - Win
Ohio State (-14) vs. Northwestern (Neutral Site) - Win
Pittsburgh (+28) vs. Clemson (Neutral Site) - Loss
Last Week: 5-5
2018 Record: 46-50-2 (-10.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Hornets (+6) vs. Bucks - Win
Warriors (-8) vs. Magic - Loss
Grizzlies (+7) vs. Raptors - Loss
Thunder (-13) vs. Hawks - Win
Suns (+3) vs. Magic - Loss
Bucks (-6.5) at Knicks - Loss
Pelicans (+4.5) at Hornets - Win
Mavericks (+4) vs. Clippers - Win
Blazers (+2.5) at Spurs - Loss
Last Week: 4-4
2018-19 Record: 28-27 (-3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Minnesota (+2.5) at Boston College - Loss
Wisconsin (-2) at Iowa - Win
Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Minnesota - Loss
San Francisco (+5) vs. Buffalo (Neutral Site) - Win
Louisville (+4.5) at Seton Hall - Win
Indiana (-7.5) vs. Northwestern - Loss
Kansas State (+4) at Marquette - Loss
Oregon (+4.5) at Houston - Win
Arizona (-1) at Connecticut - Win
Nebraska (-12) vs. Illinois - Win
Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Minnesota - Win
Last Week: 5-3-1
2018-19 Record: 14-7-1 (+4.58 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Newcastle (Pick) vs. West Ham - Loss
Huddersfield (Pick) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 3-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-17-5 (-3.28 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+125) vs. Watford - Win
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-10 (-0.67 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)
AEK Athens (+0.5) vs. Ajax - Loss
Manchester United (-1.5)  vs. Young Boys - Loss
Bayern Munich (-1.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar (+1) at Hoffenheim - Win
Lokomotiv (Pick) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 16-9-3 (+3.67 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)
CSKA Moscow (-125) vs. Viktoria Plzen - Loss
Tottenham (-130) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Barcelona (-200) at PSV - Win
Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-4.11 units)

Week 11 Recap

Week 11 of the NFL season ended with an epic clash of the titans that could double as a Super Bowl preview. Week 12 in FALAFEL has the battle for the #1 seed that could double as a Stevens Bowl preview. Before we get there, we have a lot of playoff ramifications to discuss, starting with the state of the league if the season ended today:

#1 Seed (Bye): Zacherman - Best Record/Chosen People Division Winner
#2 Seed (Bye): Kumpf - 2nd Best Record (Points Scored Tiebreaker)/Levine Division Winner
#3 Seed: Weissbard - 3rd Best Record
#4 Seed: Levine - 4th Best Record (Points Scored Tiebreaker)
#5 Seed: Marco - Chocolate Starfish Division Winner
#6 Seed: Belfer - Most Points of Remaining Teams

Gutman and Bennett are currently on the outside looking in for the #4 seed, while Ajay, Reap and Alan are somehow still alive to take the Chocolate Starfish division.

Playoff Odds

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams make the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams make the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams make the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/10 of 3-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

After Week 12:
We have never had a team start 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2
100% (5/5) of 9-3 teams make the playoffs
100% (7/7) of 8-4 teams make the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 7-5 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 6-6 teams make the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 5-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of  4-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 3-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 2-10, 1-11, or 12-0

Again, specific playoff races matter more than history here, but BAM has a chance at being our first 2-10 in the ESPN era. BAM can also clinch the shot spot with a loss, so the drama at the bottom of the league might be over with a week to spare.

Alan had a statement week and claimed the Hot Potato by almost 10 points. With bye weeks mostly over, our first two-time champ is overwhelmingly likely to be our first two-time Hot Potato. I wouldn't fault him in waiting to see BAM (or just Billy's) card before sending his, but it will be hard to top his original card.

Team of the Week - Zacherman
A few teams have a case for this spot (including my third 140 point week this season), but Z gets the spot because of how his team looks moving forward. The studs are obviously amazing, but his RB situation looked tenuous at best. Enter Josh Adams, who looks primed to complement James White as a more than acceptable duo entering the playoffs. Doug Baldwin showing signs of life is another encouraging sign for a team that can suffer an injury or two and still be terrifying.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
Another week without any strokes of genius from this league.

Worst Lineup Moves of the Week - Belfer starting Jalen Richard over Tre'Quan Smith and Bennett starting Devin Funchess over Christian Kirk
Rookie receivers are tough this time of year, but Week 11 was a banner week for them. DJ Moore lit the world on fire, while Kirk and Quan had big days as well. Unfortunately for Belfer and Bennett, they cost themselves key matchups because they went conservative. Belfer is likely to get at least the #6 seed, but this one move likely cost Bennett the playoffs.

Biggest Matchups of the Week - Kumpf vs. Zacherman and Belfer vs. Levine
Last week the Texans won, but only due to a last second missed FG, so it's basically partial credit. In this space, I went 2/3, which still relatively aligns with their performance. I'm keeping the multi-matchup thing going this week, because the stakes are once again high:

Kumpf
Best Case: #1 seed with a 30+ point lead over 2nd, and a bye essentially clinched
Worst Case: #3 seed

Zacherman
Best Case: Clinches #1 seed, Regular Season prize and a bye
Worst Case: Falls to #3 seed if he loses and Weissbard outscores him by 80

There's more pressure on me here because Z gets Ajay in Rivalry Week while I take on a more formidable Levine team. I also have the bye advantage, with Z losing his guaranteed 50 from Mahomes and Tyreek, while I lose Kelce's 15-20. I have slightly better matchups, especially if A.J. Green plays and takes targets from Boyd, but I really hate Nuk getting last licks on MNF. If I get a healthy Green and Zeke/Bears combine for 50 on Turkey Day, I think I'm in good shape. But I think it's more likely that Green sits and the Jags D score 3 TDs against the Bills.
Pick: Zacherman

Belfer
Best Case: #4 seed with a playoff seed essentially clinched
Worst Case: #7 seed with a tenuous hold on the NiJo Rule spot

Levine
Best Case: #4 seed with a playoff seed essentially clinched
Worst Case: #7 seed with a tenuous hold on the NiJo Rule spot

This will be a fun one. These two teams are both virtual playoff locks due to their point totals, but this game still matters. A win puts them in the driver's seat for the #4 seed and a first round matchup with the winner of the lowly Chocolate Starfish division. A loss means the #6 seed and a matchup with Z/Kumpf/Weissbard. This matchup will be mostly decided on Thanksgiving, with a whopping 7 players going. If Belfer can hold serve heading into Sunday, the game will be decided by how Pittsburgh plays in Denver. But I think this one could end up being a blowout before we finish our pumpkin pie.
Pick: Levine
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 8-5

Gambling Corner - Week of 11/19

NFL Bets
Falcons (+13) at Saints - Loss
Bengals (-3) vs. Browns - Loss
Jets (+10) vs. Patriots - Loss
Ravens (-11) vs. Raiders - Win
Titans (+7) at Texans
Last Week: 3-1-1
2018 Record: 29-22-5 (+3.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Houston (+7) at Memphis - Loss
Iowa (-9) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Ohio State (+5) vs. Michigan - Win
Texas Tech (+7) vs. Baylor (Neutral Site) - Loss
Syracuse (+7) at Boston College - Win
NC State (-7) at North Carolina - Loss
Stanford (-6) at UCLA - Win
Colorado (+13) at California - Win
Kansas State (+14) at Iowa State - Win
Utah (-13) vs. BYU - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2018 Record: 41-48-2 (-13.01 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Hornets (+4.5) vs. Celtics - Win
Celtics (-12.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Nets (+3.5) vs. T-Wolves - Loss
Knicks (+7.5) vs. Pelicans - Win
Nuggets (-7.5) vs. Magic - Win
Thunders (-1.5) vs. Nuggets - Loss
Mavericks (+4.5) vs. Celtics - Win
Grizzlies (-6.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 5-4
2018-19 Record: 24-22 (-1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Auburn (-9) vs. Xavier (Neutral Site) - Push
San Diego State (+3) vs. Xavier (Neutral Site) - Win
St. John's (-6.5) vs. VCU (Neutral Site) - Loss
Auburn (+11) vs. Duke (Neutral Site) - Win
Creighton (+5.5) vs. Clemson (Neutral Site) - Win
North Carolina (-7) vs. Texas (Neutral Site) - Loss
Michigan State (-6) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site - Win
DePaul (+7) at Notre Dame - Loss
Houston (+3) at BYU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Record: 7-3-1 (+2.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Win
Huddersfield (+1) at Wolves - Win
Last Week: 2-0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-15-5 (-1.28 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)

Week 10 Recap

Week 10 was the week of upsets. Instead of a world where six teams were 6-4, we have half that number, and while Barnard was a fringe playoff contender at best, his hopes were likely dashed as well. There are still a lot of playoff races to look at, but first lets review the trade deadline fun.

Trade Grade 9
Alan receives Emmanuel Sanders
Kumpf receives A.J. Green
Alan needs to make up two games on Marco to win the division, his only real shot at the playoffs, so a lame duck Green on his bench was accomplishing nothing. He now gets WR11 on the season (who's outscoring Green on a per-game basis) to fuel his playoff push. On my end, it's simply about raising my team's ceiling on a weekly basis. Green gets a nice Oakland/Cleveland back-to-back in Weeks 15-16, but that would require me making it that far, so it's a gamble.
Alan Grade: A
Kumpf Grade: B

Trade Grade 10
Ajay receives Kerryon Johnson and Panthers D/ST
Gutman receives Sony Michel and Chargers D/ST
Ajay is in desperation mode, so a bye week for Sony is a non-starter. If I was him, I would have waived the white flag and geared up for a Rivalry Week win over Z with my strongest team possible. But I have to respect the never-say-die mentality. As for Gutman, his playoff spot is now in a lot more danger than it was last week, so Sony's bye becomes a big problem with Weissbard on the schedule this week. While Gutman got the better end of the deal, the timing of this trade isn't great for him.
Ajay Grade: C+
Gutman Grade: C+

Trade Grade 11
Barnard receives Bitch Trubisky and Jordan Reed
Reap receives Greg Olsen
Barnard's comically poor planning left him desperate at QB (as well as WR), so a trade was better than scrounging the waiver wire I guess. The downgrade from Olsen to Reed is significant, but Olsen's not the reliable weekly threat he used to be. For Reap, this is a clear raising of his team's floor, though it may not affect his ceiling too much. All in all this trade probably doesn't make an impact on the outcome of the league.
Barnard Grade: C
Reap Grade: B

Trade Grade 12
Levine receives Sammy Watkins
Weissbard receives Rashaad Penny
A true buzzer beating trade! On the surface, I like Watkins more than Penny, but in our league, an RB with a chance at starting is always valuable. Weissbard has been looking for a third RB option all year, and while Penny is in incredibly crowded backfield, he's still a first round pick who the team has an incentive to play down the stretch. Levine had the rare luxury of four startable RBs, but his WR situtation is "only" two-deep in reliable starters. Watkins is by no means reliable, but he does give the defending champ more options as he prepares to defend his chef's coat. I like the trade for both teams, and the last minute nature of the trade pushes it over the top.
Levine Grade: A
Weissbard Grade: A-

Now let's take a look at each of the playoff races:

#1 Seed (Bye and Regular Season Prize)
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Kumpf, Weissbard

#2 Seed (Bye)
Favorite: Kumpf
In The Hunt, Weissbard, Belfer

Levine Division Champ
Favorite: Kumpf
In The Hunt: Bennett, Levine

The Chosen People Division Champ
Favorite: Zacherman
In The Hunt: Weissbard, Belfer

Chocolate Starfish Division Champ
Favorite: Marco
In The Hunt: Reap, Alan

Remaining Playoff Teams
Favorites: Weissbard, Belfer
In The Hunt: Bennett, Gutman, Levine

#6 Seed (NiJo Rule)
Favorite: Levine
In The Hunt: Bennett, Gutman

With three weeks left in the season, literally nothing has been clinched, and there's a pretty fun race for each seed. A looming Kumpf/Z matchup could well determine the #1 seed, with the loser in danger of falling out of the bye entirely. Weissbard and a rolling Belfer team can gain ground, and are well-positioned for the playoffs regardless. Marco's division is a wasteland, but he is the clear favorite to advance there over Alan and Reap. And the NiJo spot is a fun three-team race with Levine, Bennett, and Gutman. You all know how much I like our current playoff qualification format, but with 10 teams legitimately alive heading into Week 11, who doesn't like this?

Playoff Odds

After Week 10:
We have never had a team start 10-0 or 9-1
100% (2/2) of 8-2 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 7-3 teams make the playoffs
75% (9/12) of 6-4 teams make the playoffs
33% (5/15) of 5-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/7) of 4-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/9) of 3-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-8 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-9 or 0-10

After Week 11:
We have never had a team start 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2
100% (7/7) of 8-3 teams make the playoffs
92% (11/12) of 7-4 teams make the playoffs
40% (4/10) of 6-5 teams make the playoffs
20% (2/10) of 5-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/10 of 3-8 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 1-10 or 0-11

History means less now that the playoff picture is coming into focus, but this is a clearly important week for the 6-4 teams. Me and Belfer square off, and Gutman faces Weissbard, leaving Bennett in the potential driver's seat for the #4 seed with a pretty harmless Barnard matchup.

On the flip side, the Shot Spot appears to be relatively locked up for BAM unfortunately. They're a game back of Ajay and Esco, and their point total means they would need to make up two games to avoid taking the shots again.

The Christmas Card spot is currently Marco's to lose, with his 59.7 score in Week 7 as the only score in the 50s this year. I'm rooting for him to hold onto that spot, as the ceiling would likely be pretty high on that card. BAM, did I really take those pictures for nothing?

Team of the Week - Bennett
The team that allegedly never gets picked in the Matchup of the Week responded with a season-saving destruction of his landlord. Starting with a big TNF from his Steelers, and ending with Ertz's enormous MNF performance, Bennett dominated from wire-to-wire. I probably put him last among playoff contenders based solely on his absolute lack of reliable RBs, but he's hanging around much longer than expected.

Best Lineup Move of the Week - N/A
No great lineup decisions, though Reap getting a goose egg from Taylor Gabriel and still beating Barnard comes close to qualifying based on spite.

Worst Lineup Moves of the Week - Barnard starting Dion Lewis over Derrick Henry and Marco starting CJ Uzomah over Anthony Miller
Neither of these moves were obvious decisions (though Barnard should have known Henry would fuck him twice against the Pats), but both had potentially colossal results. Barnard is now effectively eliminated barring a miracle, while Marco blew the chance at a two-game division lead. I still would pick Marco to win his division, but it's no longer a foregone conclusion.

Biggest Matchups of the Week - Belfer vs. Kumpf, Gutman vs. Weissbard, and Marco vs. Zacherman
Matchups??? Plural??? That's right. It's the home stretch and we have three enormous matchups kicking off the final playoff push. The results of these matchups could result in the following scenarios:

Zacherman
Best Case: Two games up for the #1 seed
Worst Case: #3 seed (admittedly a stretch)

Kumpf
Best Case: #1 seed
Worst Case: #3 seed

Weissbard
Best Case: #1 seed (stretch)
Worst Case: #5 seed (stretch)

Belfer
Best Case: #3 seed (stretch)
Worst Case: #8 seed

Gutman
Best Case: #4 seed
Worst Case: #8 seed

Marco
Best Case: #4 seed, two games up in the division
Worst Case: #9 seed, tied for the division

My picks have perfectly matched the Texans so far this year, and with Houston on a bye last week and thus ineligible to win a game, I was unable to get the win either. Well I'm tripling down this week, and with Houston playing the Skins, I can see this going either way.

Belfer/Kumpf: Lots of tough matchups with Belf's Steelers in Jacksonville and my squad looking ahead to the playoffs and taking on the Bears, Chargers and Titans. Belf's range of outcomes is the largest in this group, so I think desperation works in his favor.
Pick: Belfer

Gutman/Weissbard: Weiss has the least to gain/lose this week, as he's in a unique spot with his point total. However, he loses his Rams next week, so there's an increased sense of urgency here. Gutman traded for a guy on a bye week, and it looks like he could be on the verge of a collapse. This one is easy.
Pick: Weissbard

Marco/Zacherman: For Marco to have a shot in this one, he probably needs to be up 60 heading into MNF. His squad is potentially whole for the first time this year, which is exciting, but Captain Kirk and Dalvin playing in Chicago on SNF doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence. Z's RBs are in shambles, but it probably won't matter.
Pick: Zacherman

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 6-4

Gambling Corner - Week of 11/12

NFL Bets
Seahawks (-3) vs. Packers - Push
Redskins (+3) vs. Texans - Win
Giants (-1) vs. Bucs - Win
Chargers (-7) vs. Broncos - Loss
Chiefs (+4) at Rams - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2018 Record: 28-19-5 (+4.78 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
TCU (+2) at Baylor - Win
Utah (-7) at Colorado - Win
USC (-3) at UCLA - Loss
Boston College (-1) at Florida State - Loss
Wisconsin (+5) at Purdue - Win
Mississippi (+3) at Vanderbilt - Loss
Washington State (-9) vs. Arizona - Win
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 36-43-2 (-12.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Kings (+4.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Magic (+6) vs. 76ers - Win
Raptors (-8) vs. Pistons - Loss
Warriors (+4.5) at Rockets - Loss
Nuggets (-13) vs. Hawks - Win
Clippers (+4) vs. Spurs - Win
Celtics (-2) vs. Raptors - Win
Celtics (-4) vs. Jazz - Loss
Warriors (+4.5) at Spurs - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018-19 Record: 20-18 (-1.14 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Oklahoma (-10) vs. Wofford - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2018-19 Record: 2-0 (+1.82 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 2-0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 15-15-5 (-4.12 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-2.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 3-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 13-7-3 (+3.43 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week 2-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-6 (-4.38 units)