Outside of a few bananas performances from individual players last week, things are starting to stabilize after five weeks. As you'll see below, Power Ranking movement is at a season low, as only one team moved more than one spot. There's still a bit of a disconnect between team records and roster, where some (Barnard, Alan) have won more than their team quality would indicate, and others (Billy, Marco) are unlucky to be below .500. The playoff race will likely hinge on these teams either regressing to the mean, or starting to play up (or down) to their record.
Trade Grade 12
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Weissbard receives Chris Thompson and Tyler Boyd
Marco has flip-flopped from a team based on studs, to one based on depth, and now he appears to be consolidating again. He's technically buying high on Thielen based on last week, but buying low based on his season-long performance, which I guess means he paid a fair price. As for Weissbard, he's desperate to field a complete starting lineup this week and avoid essentially being eliminated at 1-5. Thompson is good for at least 5 points per week, which isn't exciting but is certainly better than the waiver options available. And given the WR situation in Cincy, I'm not ruling out Boyd outscoring Thielen for the rest of the year either. I was tempted to give each team a solid B here, but we all remember what happened the last time Marco traded for Thielen, so he gets the extra bump.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B
Trade Grade 13
Ajay receives Chase Edmonds
Nick receives Malcolm Brown
An obvious handcuff-for-handcuff trade here, and one that doesn't warrant too much analysis. The difference in grades below is a matter of opportunity cost. If Gurley goes down for Nick, he drops from a playoff favorite back to the middle of the pack. If David Johnson gets hurt for Ajay, he drops from the worst team in the league to...the worstest team in the league? Nick now has his most important insurance policy for the cost of a waiver pickup, while Ajay loses the ability to either sell higher on Brown, or start him if Gurley gets hurt (which may have already happened).
Ajay Grade: C
Nick Grade: A-
Week 6 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Good News: Even in a loss, you put up 109 which included a goose egg from Evans, none of which is likely to happen too often.
Bad News: That goose egg really hurts when you're trying to separate yourself from Gutman, the other contender in your division.
2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Good News: Saquon Barkley isn't human, and will be flanking Dalvin Cook in my starting lineup as soon as Week 7.
Bad News: After praising Levine for Aaron Jones last week, he bitch slapped me this week.
3. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Good News: You had no chance by the end of the early games, so you got to spend time with Mara on her birthday weekend.
Bad News: Miles Sanders' slow start leaves your flex spot as a weekly rough decision, albeit your only one.
4. Levine (Last Week: 4)
Good News: You got some sweet revenge for Rivalry Week last year, using Jared Cook to add insult to injury.
Bad News: If Lamar doesn't start running again, he's a bottom end QB1, as opposed to the no-doubt stud he looked like early in the year.
5. Billy (Last Week: 6)
Good News: Will Fuller looks like a weekly starter while Stills is out and Coutee isn't getting targets.
Bad News: Not starting him last week cost you a huge game in a very competitive division.
6. Marco (Last Week: 5)
Good News: You were due for a lucky break, and while your team did fine, winning by 0.6 just feels luckier than a blowout.
Bad News: Barnard has a better chance of getting a Chef's Coat than you do at picking the correct QB each week.
7. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Good News: Between CMC, Kupp, Engram, and Niners D, you have one of the more reliably stacked cores in the league.
Bad News: The rest of your team is extremely unreliable, which gives you the biggest ceiling/floor gap in the league.
8. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Good News: A win is a win, and you have improbably risen to the top of the most competitive division overall (4 of the top 7 scorers).
Bad News: Of the teams with a legit playoff chance, yours has the lowest ceiling unless Rodgers turns things around quickly.
9. Weissbard (Last Week: 10)
Good News: You were a solid DST performance away from the highest score in FALAFEL history.
Bad News: You're still in Coach Boone mode, and can't afford to lose a game for at least the next month.
10. Esco (Last Week: 9)
Good News: My previously undeserving faith in your team paid off for the first time.
Bad News: Somehow, your roster looks as weak as it has all season.
11. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: Getting through the Tyreek injury period, along with all the other drama you've had at WR, at 2-3 is a pretty solid outcome.
Bad News: Just as you get your WRs in order, things are looking a little shaky on the RB front with Coleman back for San Fran and the Pitt offense being a huge question mark.
12. Barnard (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Any small chance of winning you had after TNF was erased as soon as CMC touched the ball, so your first loss wasn't a heartbreaker.
Bad News: Deciding between Freeman, Sony, Howard, and Melvin each week won't be easy, and I might recommend trading Sony and Cooks for someone like Michael Thomas.
13. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: If you knew Tevin was going to play, you obviously would have started him over Yeldon, and 59 feels soooo much better than 49.
Bad News: 59 still doesn't feel great.
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Good News: You were favored heading into MNF, which is kind of like a win?
Bad News: Everything that happened on MNF.
Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Gutman
The #Kurse is back in full force this year, and taking down the #BarnieBros just shows the true influence behind this mythical power. These two teams were not division favorites heading out of the draft, but they have both looked great to start the year. However, thanks to the extreme imbalance of the Division Draft, neither one is a shoo-in for the playoffs, and both might be the third best team in their own divisions. I'm more bullish on Gutman in general, but especially this week thanks to great matchups for the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Julio, and Alan's plethora of byes. Alan's path to victory hinges on Green Bay. He gets last licks with Rodgers, and Davante Adams will likely be a game time decision (wouldn't it be nice if you had Geronimo as a safety valve instead of inexplicably still holding onto and starting Witten?). If Rodgers throws two of his four TDs to Adams, Alan has a shot, but I think there's a better shot that Adams misses the game entirely. Sorry Gut.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 1-4
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/7
NFL Bets
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Texans - Loss
Saints (+1) at Jaguars - Win
Eagles (+3) at Vikings - Loss
Titans (+2) at Broncos - Loss
Steelers (+7) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 16-15 (-1.10 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Syracuse (-4.5) at NC State - Loss
Memphis (-5.5) at Temple - Loss
Texas A&M (+17) vs. Alabama - Loss
Houston (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati - Loss
Missouri (-12) vs. Mississippi - Loss
Penn State (-3) at Iowa - Win
Nebraska (+7.5) at Minnesota - Loss
Washington (-6) at Arizona - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 24-22-1 (-1.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-10-8 (+0.98 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 9-6 (-0.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-0 (+1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
MLB Bets
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
MLS Spread Bets
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)
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