We're 7 weeks into the season, and Bennett sits alone in first place. What the actual fuck? To keep us all from killing ourselves, I'm going to power rank the league based on the strength of their current squads.
1. Zacherman
2. Levine
These are clearly our top 2 teams. Z has been probably the most impressive so far, but if Zeke goes down, Levine will be right there to take over the #1 spot.
3. Bennett
4. Kumpf
5. Marco
I could flip a coin here, but a somewhat shorthanded Bennett team did just beat me by 0.5, and I beat Marco earlier this year. My guess is two of these three teams makes the playoffs.
6. Esco
7. Barnard
Esco is probably a lucky 5-2. Barnard is probably an unlucky 2-5. I like Esco's team more but Barnard will not be a fun team to play on any given week (other than this week because he is physically incapable of planning ahead, which is why his entire team is on bye and he's living alone in a four bedroom house).
8. Weissbard
9. Reap
These are my two sleeper picks. Don't look now but Weissbard put together a solid team. And I'm on record in being worried about Reap, but if Fournette isn't 100%, he's done.
10. Belfer
11. BAM
12. Ajay
13. Alan
These teams have too many holes to make up for their talent in other places. I think Alan's trade with me kept his season alive (if on life support), and the rest of these teams should think about doing the same.
14. Gutman
No matter what who he starts this week, Gutman will be have a starting lineup that was worth less than $75 in draft auction money. I can't imagine anyone else has ever dropped below even $100, let alone a 5-2 team. More on this situation below.
Also Alan has still not named his division (or renamed his team), while Ajay's team name refers to a series of trades that happened over a year ago with a team that is no longer in the league. Get your shit together Indians.
Playoff Odds
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
Based on history, only Belfer is eliminated. This has been a year of mediocrity in the NFL, and FALAFEL is no different. I guess that makes Belfer the Browns, Bennett the Eagles, and Gutman the Dolphins.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Bennett
2. Zacherman
3. Esco
4. Marco
5. Gutman
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Alan receives Derek Carr and Pierre Garcon
Kumpf receives Jordy Nelson
No one has offered to write this one up, so I guess I'll do it myself. This was probably the easiest trade I've ever negotiated, which is saying something considering it was with Alan. Early on Tuesday, Barnard alerted me to the fact that Alan lost Carson Palmer and had no viable options at QB. Barnard was trying to trade rape Alan, by acquiring Cooks for Mariota and Blount. Alan apparently requested that Barnard change his team name to something insulting about me as part of the deal, which I can respect, but the deal never happened. As it turns out, Alan and I could put together a mutually beneficial deal that keeps his team afloat at QB, and gives my boring team a higher potential ceiling. I'll give the edge to Alan here, as he clearly benefited more, but I think we both made out pretty well.
Alan Grade: A
Kumpf Grade: B+
Team of the Week - Belfer
Even the losers get lucky sometimes (RIP in peace Petty). A week after costing himself the win by sitting AP, he almost made the same mistake in reverse, but Esco couldn't rise to the occasion. Moving forward, I think this team isn't a threat to go on a run to the playoffs, but I'm not looking forward to facing Julio after watching him son Malcolm Butler like that.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bennett starting Cameron Brate over Rob Kelley
No great options this week, and it feels wrong to praise Bennett after he started Eric "Goose Egg" Decker, but that's where we are.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Cam Newton over David Carr
Losing by 0.5 is never fun, but doing so while knowing you could have won by 20? That's worse. Carr clearly was creating division in my locker room, so I had to ship him out immediately. Jordy, welcome to the squad.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck
Maybe this isn't surprising anymore. After the draft, I wasn't the biggest fan of Gutman's team, but I figured he would linger around the playoffs for most of the season. After DJ went down, I thought his chances were slim to none. Even after getting off to a 4-2, I figured losing Rodgers was the actual nail in his coffin. But he just keeps finding a way, with Amari Cooper's resurgence as the latest reason for his big day. At 5-2, he's now either set up to become the worst playoff team we've ever seen, or to suffer the biggest collapse in recent FALAFEL history.
Biggest Matchup of Week 8 - Levine vs. Gutman
After placing the worst #Kurse of all time on myself, it's time to take that evil elsewhere. A lot of the teams in this section have been used multiple times, but that's because Alan's (unnamed) division is by far the most interesting. These two teams are headed in opposite directions, but Gutman still has an important 2-game lead in the division, which would prevent Levine from being eligible for the bye. In a week with 6 teams on bye, somehow Levine's insanely deep team is completely unaffected, yet one of Gutman's three actual fantasy starters is out. However, Gutman has a nice slate of matchups, even if his actual players are laughable. I'd like to say he can keep it close, but the talent disparity, along with Kareem Hunt getting last licks, means I have to #Kurse Levine.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-5
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 8 Bets
Vikings (-9) vs. Browns (Neutral Site)
Saints (-9) vs. Bears
Eagles (-13) vs. 49ers
Redskins (+2) vs. Cowboys
Chiefs (-7) vs. Broncos
I also like a Vikings/Saints/Eagles/Chiefs Money Line Parlay at +120
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 19-12
NCAA Week 9 Bets
I'm 2-7-1 in the last two weeks, so it's time to double down with my most bets of any single week, including one on Rutgers at the Big House.
Florida State (-3) at Boston College
Rutgers (+24) at Michigan
Wake Forest (+3) vs. Louisville
Georgia (-14) vs. Florida (Neutral Site)
Notre Dame (-7) vs. NC State
South Carolina (-7) vs. Vanderbilt
Oregon (+4) vs. Utah
Mississippi State (-1) at Texas A&M
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 13-16-2
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Week 6 Recap
We're basically halfway through the regular season, so it's time to start taking a closer look at the playoff situation.
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs
History shows that teams that are 4-2 or better have a good chance of making the playoffs, and what do you know? We have exactly 6 teams at 4-2 or better. However, the newly refined FALAFEL playoff rules put a wrench in those odds. The top 5 seeds will be the 3 division winners and top 2 Wild Cards, which probably correlate well with history. We currently have a tie at the top of all three divisions, which is fantastic and should create some nice races through the second half. For the coveted 6th seed, it's looking like a runaway for Levine right now. He's two game out of first in his division, and while Gutman's outlook is currently bleak, it's very possible that Levine ends up below .500. The teams that are currently 3-3 or worse should be rooting hard for Levine to improve his record and at least get a Wild Card, because only Reap is within 100 points of Levine for the 6th seed right now.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Esco
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Barnard receives CJ Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Jaron Brown, and Delanie Walker
Levine receives Jacquizz Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Greg Olsen
Lot of things going on here. In previous years, this trade would never have happened, because Levine would be too worried about his record to plan for the future. Instead, he has relative safety in at least the 6 seed, so he can afford to wait on Olsen. A playoff roster with Russ, Hunt/Ingram/Doug, Nuk/Keenan, and Olsen, along with a solid bench? We officially have a favorite this year. As for Barnard, he really had no choice. His RB situation was dire, and his TE injury luck has been brutal. He basically turned Hopkins into three starters, which is as good as you can do. I'm calling this a win-win.
Levine: A+
Barnard: B+
Team of the Week - Reap
I had mentally written off Reap's team after an extremely slow start, but he's somehow at 3-3 and just put up the most points in Week 6. He's unfortunately in a division with two 5-1 teams, but one of those teams just lost Zeke, and the other is Bennett, so he's still very much alive there. Worst case scenario, he's also the team best poised to take the sixth seed if Levine qualifies for the playoffs via division title or wild card. With the best RB duo in the league carrying an otherwise mediocre roster, Reap still looms as a potential playoff party crasher.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ravens D/ST over Jaguars D/ST
I haven't really brought this up, but my combo of D/STs are pretty much carrying me this year, and rank 1 and 3 in scoring so far at the position. My biggest problem, as it is with every other position for me, is picking which one to start. Up until Sunday I had Jacksonville starting, hoping to take advantage against Jared Goff and Co., but I made a last minute switch because I got scared of a Gurley game. It paid off with two punt return TDs that eventually carried me past Z.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Jamison Crowder over Adrian Peterson
I promised Belfer he would get this section on Sunday, and it has to hurt seeing this decision keeping him winless. Ellington put up a surprising goose egg, but he was at least a defensible start. Crowder is borderline rosterable at this point, so I probably would have started multiple other options over him, but starting a newly acquired AP is something most of us wouldn't have done. And most of us would have been wrong, as AP turned back the clock for a huge day. Belfer, even if you don't win a game this year, we can at least look back and say that you (probably) won the AP/Foreman swap with Weissbard.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Bennett is 5-1
I honestly don't know how this happened. His roster is fine, but not spectacular. His schedule has been easy, but still more difficult than 4-2 Gutman and 3-3 Ajay. Yet if he beats me this week, he'll be tied for the best start in recent FALAFEL history. Which unfortunately brings me to the next section...
Biggest Matchup of Week 7 - Bennett vs. Kumpf
I hate putting myself in here, and I really hate writing about Bennett, but here we are. From a bye/injury perspective, we're about even, both missing 1-2 potential starters. From a matchup perspective, neither of us has an overly easy or difficult slate. Talent-wise he has the higher ceiling, but I have the higher floor. This is probably my toughest call of the year for multiple reasons, but the possibility of Jordan Reed scoring a game-winning TD against Bennett's Eagles on MNF also costing him a fantasy win is too good to pass up. Looks like I done #Kursed myself.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-4
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 7 Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Raiders
Rams (-3) vs. Cardinals
Steelers (-5) vs. Bengals
Patriots (-3) vs. Falcons
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 16-11
NCAA Week 8 Bets
Iowa State (+7) at Texas Tech
Miami (-14) vs. Syracuse
Oregon (+7) at UCLA
Mississippi State (-10) vs. Kentucky
Last Week: 0-4-1
2017 Record: 11-14-2
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs
History shows that teams that are 4-2 or better have a good chance of making the playoffs, and what do you know? We have exactly 6 teams at 4-2 or better. However, the newly refined FALAFEL playoff rules put a wrench in those odds. The top 5 seeds will be the 3 division winners and top 2 Wild Cards, which probably correlate well with history. We currently have a tie at the top of all three divisions, which is fantastic and should create some nice races through the second half. For the coveted 6th seed, it's looking like a runaway for Levine right now. He's two game out of first in his division, and while Gutman's outlook is currently bleak, it's very possible that Levine ends up below .500. The teams that are currently 3-3 or worse should be rooting hard for Levine to improve his record and at least get a Wild Card, because only Reap is within 100 points of Levine for the 6th seed right now.
If the playoffs started today:
1. Esco
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Marco
5. Kumpf
6. Levine
Trade Recap
Barnard receives CJ Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Jaron Brown, and Delanie Walker
Levine receives Jacquizz Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, and Greg Olsen
Lot of things going on here. In previous years, this trade would never have happened, because Levine would be too worried about his record to plan for the future. Instead, he has relative safety in at least the 6 seed, so he can afford to wait on Olsen. A playoff roster with Russ, Hunt/Ingram/Doug, Nuk/Keenan, and Olsen, along with a solid bench? We officially have a favorite this year. As for Barnard, he really had no choice. His RB situation was dire, and his TE injury luck has been brutal. He basically turned Hopkins into three starters, which is as good as you can do. I'm calling this a win-win.
Levine: A+
Barnard: B+
Team of the Week - Reap
I had mentally written off Reap's team after an extremely slow start, but he's somehow at 3-3 and just put up the most points in Week 6. He's unfortunately in a division with two 5-1 teams, but one of those teams just lost Zeke, and the other is Bennett, so he's still very much alive there. Worst case scenario, he's also the team best poised to take the sixth seed if Levine qualifies for the playoffs via division title or wild card. With the best RB duo in the league carrying an otherwise mediocre roster, Reap still looms as a potential playoff party crasher.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ravens D/ST over Jaguars D/ST
I haven't really brought this up, but my combo of D/STs are pretty much carrying me this year, and rank 1 and 3 in scoring so far at the position. My biggest problem, as it is with every other position for me, is picking which one to start. Up until Sunday I had Jacksonville starting, hoping to take advantage against Jared Goff and Co., but I made a last minute switch because I got scared of a Gurley game. It paid off with two punt return TDs that eventually carried me past Z.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer starting Jamison Crowder over Adrian Peterson
I promised Belfer he would get this section on Sunday, and it has to hurt seeing this decision keeping him winless. Ellington put up a surprising goose egg, but he was at least a defensible start. Crowder is borderline rosterable at this point, so I probably would have started multiple other options over him, but starting a newly acquired AP is something most of us wouldn't have done. And most of us would have been wrong, as AP turned back the clock for a huge day. Belfer, even if you don't win a game this year, we can at least look back and say that you (probably) won the AP/Foreman swap with Weissbard.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Bennett is 5-1
I honestly don't know how this happened. His roster is fine, but not spectacular. His schedule has been easy, but still more difficult than 4-2 Gutman and 3-3 Ajay. Yet if he beats me this week, he'll be tied for the best start in recent FALAFEL history. Which unfortunately brings me to the next section...
Biggest Matchup of Week 7 - Bennett vs. Kumpf
I hate putting myself in here, and I really hate writing about Bennett, but here we are. From a bye/injury perspective, we're about even, both missing 1-2 potential starters. From a matchup perspective, neither of us has an overly easy or difficult slate. Talent-wise he has the higher ceiling, but I have the higher floor. This is probably my toughest call of the year for multiple reasons, but the possibility of Jordan Reed scoring a game-winning TD against Bennett's Eagles on MNF also costing him a fantasy win is too good to pass up. Looks like I done #Kursed myself.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-4
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 7 Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Raiders
Rams (-3) vs. Cardinals
Steelers (-5) vs. Bengals
Patriots (-3) vs. Falcons
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 16-11
NCAA Week 8 Bets
Iowa State (+7) at Texas Tech
Miami (-14) vs. Syracuse
Oregon (+7) at UCLA
Mississippi State (-10) vs. Kentucky
Last Week: 0-4-1
2017 Record: 11-14-2
Thursday, October 12, 2017
Week 5 Recap
In a league where more than half the teams had the same record, I guess it's no surprise that we had the closest matchups in recent memory during Week 5. This made for some stressful Sundays/Mondays for most of the league, and also makes lineup decisions extremely difficult, though the specific lineup decisions facing each team varies wildly.
Here's each team's toughest lineup decision for Week 5, as well as whether they were right or wrong:
Alan: Frank Gore over Tarik Cohen - Right
Kumpf: Mike Gillislee over Isaiah Crowell - Wrong
Ajay: Derrick Henry over Terrance West - Wrong
Weissbard: Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley - Right
Zacherman: Sterling Shepard over Allen Hurns - Wrong
Belfer: Matthew Stafford over Tyrod Taylor - Right
Bennett: Kenny Stills over Gio Bernard - Wrong
Levine: Doug Martin over LeGarrette Blount - Right
Barnard: Jacquizz Rodgers over Aaron Jones - Wrong
Gutman: Elijah McGuire over Kerwynn Williams - Right
Esco - Duke Johnson over Thomas Rawls - Right
Reap - Danny Amendola over Kendall Wright - Right
BAM - Alex Collins over Robby Anderson - Right
Marco - James White over Wayne Gallman - Wrong
Some of you cost yourselves a win with these choices, while others won in spite of them. With byes picking up this week, and injuries mounting, lineup decisions will play a huge role in determining who makes the playoffs and who joins Belfer in the cellar.
Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs
After the playoff seeding thread this week, it occurred to me that the changes to our playoff qualification process means that this section is less predictive than it's been in previous years. Regardless, this week is most important for the 3-2 teams, me and Marco, while it offers the last gasp for Weissbard as our sole 1-4 team.
Team of the Week - Marco
This is mainly due to his trades paying as immediate a benefit as I've ever seen. He turned Charles Clay (now out for multiple weeks), Denver's D (he already has a top 10 D/ST in the Chiefs), and 27 auction dollars into James White, Adam Thielen, and Jason Witten, whose 26.5 points factored big in his 12 point win over BAM. He now sits in the second Wild Card spot by 15 points, which is remarkable given his performance at the draft.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard starting Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley
This was an obvious choice because Weissbard was literally asking people which one he should start on Sunday morning. He made the right choice, punctuated by a nasty Agholor juke on his long TD, and he's now in the win column. His team is still a joke (I legit have never heard of Corey Clement, yet Weiss was starting him), but at least he's not going 0-13.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Levine starting Latavius Murray over LeGarrette Blount
#Kursed. Chark West had the biggest day on Levine's bench, but he wasn't a realistic starter. Instead, Levine had the tough choice of Blount, who's top backups were injured, or Murray, who was newly promoted after injury. Murray's matchup was better, but the presence of McKinnon made the situation a little bit murky, especially on passing downs. Blount is usually TD-dependent, but without Smallwood and Sproles, the Eagles would have no choice but to give him the ball. I think this was ultimately a coin flip, but it was a costly choice for Levine. Luckily for him, the new playoff rules give him a 95 point lead for the 6th playoff spot, even if he loses close games every week.
Honorable mention to Barnard for bidding $69 for Aaron Jones, then benching him for Quizz.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck
Gutman won while scoring 58 points. His average opponent scores less than Belfer! He currently has the lead in a division with the highest scorer in the league, a super deep team that is destined for 7-6, and Alan and Weissbard. I highly doubt he can keep it up, especially with his RBs, but I thought that after Week 1 and he's gone 3-1 since then.
Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - Ajay vs. Barnard
Me and Z have a big matchup, but 1) I try not to put myself in this section and 2) Half his team is on a bye so I theoretically should get a relatively easy win. That leaves us with a divisional matchup that could seal the fate of the loser. Ajay's team has severely underproduced so far, but thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule (to Gutman), he still has two wins banked. As usual, Barnard has been perfectly mediocre, but his time with Quizz as a starter has run out, and he has enormous issues at RB2 and Flex. History tells us that there isn't a huge difference between 3-3 and 2-4, but with neither of these teams likely to earn the 6th seed in total points, this looks a lot like an elimination matchup. Ajay will get out to a nice lead with his TNF crew, and he also gets last licks with Sunday and/or Monday night players, but the easier matchups definitely go to Barnard. Honestly, the matchup probably comes down to Ty Montgomery. For the first time, I'm making a contingent prediction: If Montgomery is active, Ajay wins. If not, it's Barnard. Either way, you're both #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-4
Gambling Corner
NBA Win Total Bets
Celtics Under 55.5
Warriors Under 67.5
Nets Over 27.5
Hornets Over 42.5
Pistons Under 38.5
Pacers Over 31.5
76ers Under 41.5
Bucks Under 47.5
Grizzlies Under 37.5
Pelicans Over 39.5
Hawks Over 25.5
Mavericks Under 35.5
Jazz Over 41
Spurs Under 54.5
Blazers Under 42.5
Kings Under 27.5
Bulls Over 22
Raptors Under 48.5
Clippers Over 43.5
Lakers Under 33.5
NFL Week 6 Bets
Eagles (+3) at Panthers
Texans (-10) vs. Browns
Redskins (-10) vs. 49ers
Jaguars (-2) vs. Rams
Lines still not posted for Saints/Lions, Raiders/Chargers, and Titans/Colts. Blog will be updated if I bet on those.
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 14-9
NCAA Week 7 Bets
Florida State (-7) at Duke
Texas Tech (+4) at West Virginia
Oklahoma (-7) at Texas (neutral site)
Baylor (+26) at Oklahoma State
Oregon (+11) at Stanford
Last Week: 3-1-1
2017 Record: 11-10-1
Here's each team's toughest lineup decision for Week 5, as well as whether they were right or wrong:
Alan: Frank Gore over Tarik Cohen - Right
Kumpf: Mike Gillislee over Isaiah Crowell - Wrong
Ajay: Derrick Henry over Terrance West - Wrong
Weissbard: Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley - Right
Zacherman: Sterling Shepard over Allen Hurns - Wrong
Belfer: Matthew Stafford over Tyrod Taylor - Right
Bennett: Kenny Stills over Gio Bernard - Wrong
Levine: Doug Martin over LeGarrette Blount - Right
Barnard: Jacquizz Rodgers over Aaron Jones - Wrong
Gutman: Elijah McGuire over Kerwynn Williams - Right
Esco - Duke Johnson over Thomas Rawls - Right
Reap - Danny Amendola over Kendall Wright - Right
BAM - Alex Collins over Robby Anderson - Right
Marco - James White over Wayne Gallman - Wrong
Some of you cost yourselves a win with these choices, while others won in spite of them. With byes picking up this week, and injuries mounting, lineup decisions will play a huge role in determining who makes the playoffs and who joins Belfer in the cellar.
Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
69% (Nice)(11/16) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs
After the playoff seeding thread this week, it occurred to me that the changes to our playoff qualification process means that this section is less predictive than it's been in previous years. Regardless, this week is most important for the 3-2 teams, me and Marco, while it offers the last gasp for Weissbard as our sole 1-4 team.
Team of the Week - Marco
This is mainly due to his trades paying as immediate a benefit as I've ever seen. He turned Charles Clay (now out for multiple weeks), Denver's D (he already has a top 10 D/ST in the Chiefs), and 27 auction dollars into James White, Adam Thielen, and Jason Witten, whose 26.5 points factored big in his 12 point win over BAM. He now sits in the second Wild Card spot by 15 points, which is remarkable given his performance at the draft.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard starting Nelson Agholor over Jeremy Kerley
This was an obvious choice because Weissbard was literally asking people which one he should start on Sunday morning. He made the right choice, punctuated by a nasty Agholor juke on his long TD, and he's now in the win column. His team is still a joke (I legit have never heard of Corey Clement, yet Weiss was starting him), but at least he's not going 0-13.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Levine starting Latavius Murray over LeGarrette Blount
#Kursed. Chark West had the biggest day on Levine's bench, but he wasn't a realistic starter. Instead, Levine had the tough choice of Blount, who's top backups were injured, or Murray, who was newly promoted after injury. Murray's matchup was better, but the presence of McKinnon made the situation a little bit murky, especially on passing downs. Blount is usually TD-dependent, but without Smallwood and Sproles, the Eagles would have no choice but to give him the ball. I think this was ultimately a coin flip, but it was a costly choice for Levine. Luckily for him, the new playoff rules give him a 95 point lead for the 6th playoff spot, even if he loses close games every week.
Honorable mention to Barnard for bidding $69 for Aaron Jones, then benching him for Quizz.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Gutman's Luck
Gutman won while scoring 58 points. His average opponent scores less than Belfer! He currently has the lead in a division with the highest scorer in the league, a super deep team that is destined for 7-6, and Alan and Weissbard. I highly doubt he can keep it up, especially with his RBs, but I thought that after Week 1 and he's gone 3-1 since then.
Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - Ajay vs. Barnard
Me and Z have a big matchup, but 1) I try not to put myself in this section and 2) Half his team is on a bye so I theoretically should get a relatively easy win. That leaves us with a divisional matchup that could seal the fate of the loser. Ajay's team has severely underproduced so far, but thanks to the league's second-easiest schedule (to Gutman), he still has two wins banked. As usual, Barnard has been perfectly mediocre, but his time with Quizz as a starter has run out, and he has enormous issues at RB2 and Flex. History tells us that there isn't a huge difference between 3-3 and 2-4, but with neither of these teams likely to earn the 6th seed in total points, this looks a lot like an elimination matchup. Ajay will get out to a nice lead with his TNF crew, and he also gets last licks with Sunday and/or Monday night players, but the easier matchups definitely go to Barnard. Honestly, the matchup probably comes down to Ty Montgomery. For the first time, I'm making a contingent prediction: If Montgomery is active, Ajay wins. If not, it's Barnard. Either way, you're both #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-4
Gambling Corner
NBA Win Total Bets
Celtics Under 55.5
Warriors Under 67.5
Nets Over 27.5
Hornets Over 42.5
Pistons Under 38.5
Pacers Over 31.5
76ers Under 41.5
Bucks Under 47.5
Grizzlies Under 37.5
Pelicans Over 39.5
Hawks Over 25.5
Mavericks Under 35.5
Jazz Over 41
Spurs Under 54.5
Blazers Under 42.5
Kings Under 27.5
Bulls Over 22
Raptors Under 48.5
Clippers Over 43.5
Lakers Under 33.5
NFL Week 6 Bets
Eagles (+3) at Panthers
Texans (-10) vs. Browns
Redskins (-10) vs. 49ers
Jaguars (-2) vs. Rams
Lines still not posted for Saints/Lions, Raiders/Chargers, and Titans/Colts. Blog will be updated if I bet on those.
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 14-9
NCAA Week 7 Bets
Florida State (-7) at Duke
Texas Tech (+4) at West Virginia
Oklahoma (-7) at Texas (neutral site)
Baylor (+26) at Oklahoma State
Oregon (+11) at Stanford
Last Week: 3-1-1
2017 Record: 11-10-1
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Week 4 Recap
I don't think we've ever had a week where 12/14 teams were at .500 or better, but thanks to most of the league's general mediocrity, as well as Weissbard and Belfer's abject awfulness, here we are. A lot of this is just early season noise caused by unbalanced schedules, so breaking the league down by actual points scored, as well as a look forward, we're left with the following tiers:
True Contenders: Levine, Esco, Zacherman, Bennett
Need Some Help: Barnard, Gutman, Marco, Kumpf, Alan
No Idea: Ajay, BAM
There's Always Next Year: Weissbard, Reap, Belfer
Ajay and BAM are an interesting juxtaposition, because their teams are essentially opposites. I can in no way write them off, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong. But the most interesting tier is the one that needs help. Barnard and Gutman need RBs desperately, Marco and I could use some general talent upgrades, while Alan just needs his improbable RB rotation to keep producing. It's likely that two of these teams will join the top tier in the playoffs, but we're a long way from having any clarity there.
Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs
For the first time, we have an official elimination record this week, so if Weissbard or Belfer loses, they will face an uncharted road to the playoffs. It's also a week of decent delineation between 2 and 3 win teams, which is particularly important for our 8 2-2 teams, however we only have two matchups between them.
Trade Recap
Gutman receives Elijah McGuire
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Oh Gutman No. Marco took $27 waiver dollars, lit them on fire by spending them on the 3rd string RB for the Jets, then somehow took the ashes and flipped them for a startable WR. This is such a raping by Marco, and such an insane misread on the market by Gutman, that I'm tempted to adjust their tiers above. Good God Gutman.
Marco Grade: A+
Gutman Grade: F
Esco receives Charles Clay and Broncos D/ST
Marco receives James White and Jason Witten
Interesting trade here, I can't remember seeing a defense traded before, but Marco has now completely revamped his team after his blacked out draft strategy led to a very unbalanced team. On the heels of the trade above, Marco makes a nice upgrade at RB here, while making small downgrades at TE and D/ST. As for Esco, getting Denver's D takes him out of the streaming life, saving his waiver money for bigger fish. And while I'm not sold as Clay as a no-doubt starter at TE (he's absolutely getting hurt in the next two weeks), he's still an upgrade from Witten. I'm giving Esco the slight edge here based on this trade alone, but Marco's team is unquestionably stronger than it was last week.
Esco Grade: B+
Marco Grade: B-
Team of the Week - Zacherman
This was just total domination. It barely edges Levine for highest score on the season, but it also was the most complete performance by a team this year. The only thing more surprising than Sterling Shepard being Z's lowest scorer with 7.9 points is the fact that he could have added another 8.7 points if he started Eli.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah over Crowell or Martavis
I fucking hate picking my starting lineup each week, but I finally got one right. No other great calls this week.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer :(
In a must-win matchup, if Belfer started either Cooper Kupp or Mike Wallace over Jamison Crowder, he would have easily beaten Alan (who benched Bilal Powell). Instead he was rewarded with negative points from Crowder and is still winless on the year. Honorable mention to Marco picking wrong in his Alex Smith vs. Philip Rivers QB controversy.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Ajay
It doesn't seem like anyone will challenge Billy's Week 1 futility, but Ajay put up a shockingly terrible performance this week. One of my preseason Stevens Bowl picks because of his depth, this is what happens when a deep team takes a collective dump. On the bright side, at least you didn't make any terrible lineup decisions?
Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - Bennett vs. Levine
It's baaaaack! After a brief success to start the year, the #Kurse is back with a vengeance. There were no great 2-2 matchups this week, so I'm picking a matchup between contenders who have had very different luck this year. After Levine made the playoffs with a bottom-three scoring team last year, his luck has completely regressed this year. Not only is he an unlucky 2-2, but he lost Dalvin Cook to a brutal ACL injury last week. I wasn't surprised in the least to see that he already had Latavius locked up, so I don't see a huge drop off moving forward, even with Ingram and CJ on byes. Bennett losing Sanders and Fat Rob to byes should hurt a lot more, so I'm gonna pick my apparent rival to start turning his luck around this week. Levine, you've been #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner
Before getting to this week's picks, I want to add a small disclaimer. While I'm not saying you should be using my weekly bets as actual betting advice, I do have some advice you should take: NBA and MLB win totals. With baseball season just ending, I hit on 18 of the 26 win total over/under bets I made, and over the last three years I've hit on 68%. I'll publish those next year if anyone is interested in free money.
Speaking of free money, I'll also list my NBA win total bets next week, where I'm over 75% in the last three years. As for NFL win totals, my Rams over 5.5 and Giants under 9 bets look good, but I also have the Chargers over 7.5 and Lions under 8. Historically, I'm right at 50% in the NFL, which loses money after the vig.
NFL Week 5 Bets
Eagles (-6) vs. Cardinals
Bills (+3) at Bengals
Jets (Pick) at Browns
Packers (+2) at Cowboys
Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Last Week: 2-3
2017 Record: 10-8
NCAA Week 6 Bets
Duke (+3) at Virginia
Florida State (+4) at Miami
LSU (+4) at Florida
Texas A&M (+27) vs. Alabama
Arizona (+7) at Colorado
Last Week: 0-4
2017 Record: 8-9
True Contenders: Levine, Esco, Zacherman, Bennett
Need Some Help: Barnard, Gutman, Marco, Kumpf, Alan
No Idea: Ajay, BAM
There's Always Next Year: Weissbard, Reap, Belfer
Ajay and BAM are an interesting juxtaposition, because their teams are essentially opposites. I can in no way write them off, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong. But the most interesting tier is the one that needs help. Barnard and Gutman need RBs desperately, Marco and I could use some general talent upgrades, while Alan just needs his improbable RB rotation to keep producing. It's likely that two of these teams will join the top tier in the playoffs, but we're a long way from having any clarity there.
Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs
For the first time, we have an official elimination record this week, so if Weissbard or Belfer loses, they will face an uncharted road to the playoffs. It's also a week of decent delineation between 2 and 3 win teams, which is particularly important for our 8 2-2 teams, however we only have two matchups between them.
Trade Recap
Gutman receives Elijah McGuire
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Oh Gutman No. Marco took $27 waiver dollars, lit them on fire by spending them on the 3rd string RB for the Jets, then somehow took the ashes and flipped them for a startable WR. This is such a raping by Marco, and such an insane misread on the market by Gutman, that I'm tempted to adjust their tiers above. Good God Gutman.
Marco Grade: A+
Gutman Grade: F
Esco receives Charles Clay and Broncos D/ST
Marco receives James White and Jason Witten
Interesting trade here, I can't remember seeing a defense traded before, but Marco has now completely revamped his team after his blacked out draft strategy led to a very unbalanced team. On the heels of the trade above, Marco makes a nice upgrade at RB here, while making small downgrades at TE and D/ST. As for Esco, getting Denver's D takes him out of the streaming life, saving his waiver money for bigger fish. And while I'm not sold as Clay as a no-doubt starter at TE (he's absolutely getting hurt in the next two weeks), he's still an upgrade from Witten. I'm giving Esco the slight edge here based on this trade alone, but Marco's team is unquestionably stronger than it was last week.
Esco Grade: B+
Marco Grade: B-
Team of the Week - Zacherman
This was just total domination. It barely edges Levine for highest score on the season, but it also was the most complete performance by a team this year. The only thing more surprising than Sterling Shepard being Z's lowest scorer with 7.9 points is the fact that he could have added another 8.7 points if he started Eli.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah over Crowell or Martavis
I fucking hate picking my starting lineup each week, but I finally got one right. No other great calls this week.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer :(
In a must-win matchup, if Belfer started either Cooper Kupp or Mike Wallace over Jamison Crowder, he would have easily beaten Alan (who benched Bilal Powell). Instead he was rewarded with negative points from Crowder and is still winless on the year. Honorable mention to Marco picking wrong in his Alex Smith vs. Philip Rivers QB controversy.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Ajay
It doesn't seem like anyone will challenge Billy's Week 1 futility, but Ajay put up a shockingly terrible performance this week. One of my preseason Stevens Bowl picks because of his depth, this is what happens when a deep team takes a collective dump. On the bright side, at least you didn't make any terrible lineup decisions?
Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - Bennett vs. Levine
It's baaaaack! After a brief success to start the year, the #Kurse is back with a vengeance. There were no great 2-2 matchups this week, so I'm picking a matchup between contenders who have had very different luck this year. After Levine made the playoffs with a bottom-three scoring team last year, his luck has completely regressed this year. Not only is he an unlucky 2-2, but he lost Dalvin Cook to a brutal ACL injury last week. I wasn't surprised in the least to see that he already had Latavius locked up, so I don't see a huge drop off moving forward, even with Ingram and CJ on byes. Bennett losing Sanders and Fat Rob to byes should hurt a lot more, so I'm gonna pick my apparent rival to start turning his luck around this week. Levine, you've been #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner
Before getting to this week's picks, I want to add a small disclaimer. While I'm not saying you should be using my weekly bets as actual betting advice, I do have some advice you should take: NBA and MLB win totals. With baseball season just ending, I hit on 18 of the 26 win total over/under bets I made, and over the last three years I've hit on 68%. I'll publish those next year if anyone is interested in free money.
Speaking of free money, I'll also list my NBA win total bets next week, where I'm over 75% in the last three years. As for NFL win totals, my Rams over 5.5 and Giants under 9 bets look good, but I also have the Chargers over 7.5 and Lions under 8. Historically, I'm right at 50% in the NFL, which loses money after the vig.
NFL Week 5 Bets
Eagles (-6) vs. Cardinals
Bills (+3) at Bengals
Jets (Pick) at Browns
Packers (+2) at Cowboys
Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Last Week: 2-3
2017 Record: 10-8
NCAA Week 6 Bets
Duke (+3) at Virginia
Florida State (+4) at Miami
LSU (+4) at Florida
Texas A&M (+27) vs. Alabama
Arizona (+7) at Colorado
Last Week: 0-4
2017 Record: 8-9
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