FALAFEL 2023 Re-Grades (Part 2)

Well that was a pretty boring Super Bowl, so I guess I'll have to provide the excitement by providing my opinions about things I provided my opinion about months ago. All the caveats are listed in Part 1, so let's get on with the last 8 trades made in 2023.

Trade Re-Grade 9
AGD Receives Deebo Samuel (Before Trade: WR34; After Trade: WR1) and Jamison Crowder (Before Trade: WR109; After Trade: WR190)
Nick Receives C.J. Stroud (Before Trade: QB6; After Trade: QB17) and Najee Harris (Before Trade: RB41; After Trade: RB33)
Some big caveats here, especially as it relates to Deebo. First, I am SHOCKED that he averaged over 20ppg after he returned Week 10. That flew under the radar. Probably because AGD were not relevant at all this season, but still. Deebo's performance automatically bumps up AGDs grade, but they still had to bench one of Deebo/Kupp/Puka/Amari, and had to start either Kareem Hunt or A.J. Dillon. Spending for 2 startable QBs is a double edged sword, because if you can't find a trade partner you have to sell low. Nick may have bought high on Stroud and sold low on Deebo, but he needed QB and RB and had a WR to spare, so the general grade theme sticks.
Original Grade: Nick: B, AGD: D+
Re-Grade: Nick: B, AGD: B-

Trade Re-Grade 10
Barnard receives Tyler Boyd (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR95)
Marco receives Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
It takes a big man to admit when they are wrong, but it's better not to be wrong in the first place. I'll admit I was surprised to see Boyd and Ridley so close before the trade, but this would be the worst trade in FALAFEL history if it didn't become the best trade in FALAFEL history a couple weeks later.
Original Grade: Marco: A; Barnard: D+
Re-Grade: Marco: A+; Barnard: F

Trade Re-Grade 11
Gutman receives Zay Flowers (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
Marco receives Zach Charbonnet (Before Trade: RB65; After Trade: RB33)
I called this a win-win in the moment and it remains that way. Both teams traded backups for starters (Charbs covered for an injured KW3 for a few weeks). Gut got the better performance, but Marco's addition was arguably more important because it was an RB and he was in the playoff race.
Original Grade: Marco A-; Gutman: B+
Re-Grade: Gutman: A-; Marco: B+

Trade Re-Grade 12
Marco receives Bijan Robinson (Before Trade: RB22; After Trade: RB3) and Tank Dell (Before Trade: WR17; After Trade: WR14)
Weissbard receives De'Von Achane (Before Trade: RB1; After Trade: RB22) and Garrett Wilson (Before Trade: WR25; After Trade: WR20)
Some small sample size theater here with Achane, but the real impact of this trade was felt in Week 15, where Marco needed Bijan to step up and he most certainly did not. Achane wouldn't have changed the outcome either, so there's no real penalty for that, but this trade will be remembered for Marco's first round fizzle, even if he ended up ahead overall. (Reminder that Tank's injury is not factored into the grade.)
Original Grade: Weissbard: C+; Marco: C-
Re-Grade: Marco: B; Weissbard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 13
Ajay receives Tee Higgins (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR64) and Chargers D/ST (Before Trade: DST15; After Trade: DST 20)
Barnard receives Darrell Henderson Jr. (Before Trade: RB37; After Trade: RB26, Tyjae Spears (Before Trade: RB47; After Trade: RB42), and Browns D/ST (Before Trade: DST1; After Trade: DST28)
Typically I wouldn't even consider the DST part of this trade, but the Browns were legitimately studs last year, so I have to assume that factored into what Barnard was getting (as opposed to the Chargers, who Ajay started twice). The Browns promptly dropped to almost the bottom of the league, as the ultimate example of buying high. Context matters here too, as Ajay was already in the playoffs at this point, so he could wait for Higgins to presumably return healthy. Barnard needed RB help desperately and after this trade he...still needed RB help desperately, as Henderson played one game before Kyren Williams (lol) returned and Hendo was cut (double lol).
Original Grade: Ajay: B+; Barnard: C+
Re-Grade: Ajay: B; Barnard: D+

Trade Re-Grade 14
Esco receives Trevor Lawrence (Before Trade: QB28; After Trade: QB1), Gus Edwards (Before Trade: RB22; After Trade: RB40), and Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
Marco receives Tua Tagovailoa (Before Trade: QB12; After Trade: QB29), Antonio Gibson (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB46), and Brandin Cooks (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR36)
This of course was a trade taken directly from my Mock Trades post, forcing me to give A's to both teams. Upon further review, it's pretty one sided. Esco's moves led to his miracle run to the Stevens Bowl, and Marco's moves led to his first round exit. I understand the logic from both sides (obviously), but things panned out far better for Esco, especially given the playoff performances from Gus and Tua.
Original Grade: Esco: A; Marco: A
Re-Grade: Esco: A; Marco: C

Trade Re-Grade 15
Barnard receives Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR10) and David Njoku (Before Trade: TE14; After Trade: TE4)
Esco receives Tyler Boyd (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR95) and Dalton Schultz (Before Trade: TE8; After Trade: TE24)
Ahhh...Ridley/Boyd II. What a weirdly and potentially impactful trade. From what I can tell, Barnard made this trade due to the criticism he received for the first Ridley/Boyd trade, and also to get Njoku teamed up with Jeudy. Esco did this purely for the lols, but that came back to bite him as he made his surprising run to the Stevens Bowl and could have really used Ridley and Njoku's scoring in the finals. It wouldn't have changed the outcome, but it would have made for a better Stevens Bowl.
Original Grade: Barnard: B-; Esco: B-
Re-Grade: Barnard: A; Esco: D

Trade Re-Grade 16
Ajay receives Amon-Ra St. Brown (Before Trade: WR4; After Trade: WR38)
Nick receives James Conner (Before Trade: RB32; After Trade: RB21) and DK Metcalf (Before Trade: WR24; After Trade: WR4)
For Ajay, this trade was entirely about the playoffs (where ARSB put up WR1 numbers), and not the 3-game cameo in the regular season. I want to take a second to point out that in 16 regular season games, ARSB only scored less than 11.2 points once. That consistent greatness was overlooked this year. Anyway, Nick needed a miracle three-week stretch, and while he didn't get it, Conner and DK kept him in play for his namesake playoff spot til the very end. Good trade all around.
Original Grade: Ajay: A-; Nick: B
Re-Grade: Nick: A-; Ajay: B+

Re-Grade GPA Shifts
Ajay (6 trades): Original GPA: 2.83; New GPA: 2.6; Change: -.23
Barnard (6 trades): Original GPA: 1.78; New GPA: 2.28; Change: +0.5
Marco (5 trades): Original GPA: 3.28; New GPA: 3.12; Change: -0.16
Esco (3 trades): Original GPA: 3.23; New GPA: 2.67; Change: -0.56
Nick (3 trades): Original GPA: 2.77; New GPA: 2.47; Change: -0.3
Weissbard (3 trades): Original GPA: 2.77; New GPA: 2.9; Change: +0.13
AGD (2 trades): Original GPA: 2.5; New GPA: 3.0; Change: +0.5
Gutman (2 trades): Original GPA: 3.0; New GPA: 3.5; Change: +0.5
Bennett (1 trade): Original GPA: 2.7; New GPA: 3.3; Change: +0.6
Zacherman (1 trade): Original GPA: 4.0; New GPA: 3.0; Change: -1.0

No Trades: Alan, Billy, Kumpf, Levine

So I guess I was a little hard on Barnard the first go-round, but he still ends up with a GPA lower than what I got in undergrad, so I feel like the overall message was clear. I also want to point out that only one playoff team made no trades, and the average playoff team made 2.67 trades. Congrats to Marco as the most successful high volume trader, and boo to Barnard for being the worst trader independent of volume.

I have grand plans to re-grade the draft and look at FAAB bids, but we'll see if/when that happens. 

FALAFEL 2023 Trade Re-Grades (Part 1)

The Super Bowl is on Sunday, we still have a few weeks before Draft Location Madness starts up, and I still don't have a job, so it feels like that most productive thing I can do with my time is re-grade trades that I originally graded over the last season. Some people (Barnard) felt like they were discriminated against the first go-round, but as anyone who has done the C-minus dance knows, asking for a re-grade can also mean your grade goes down. I honestly have no idea how this will work out, but rather than my somewhat subjective process during the season, I'm going to try to be a little bit more scientific this time.

Methodology

There is no perfect way to do this, so I've settled on the following process:

• Fantasy regular season stats only. I will make adjustments for trades that were made by teams that were clearly in the playoffs already, but the goal is always to make the playoffs in the first place. After that, it's a crapshoot (see: Bennett is our reigning champion).
• Compare a player's average PPG before the trade and after the trade, and then compare those numbers to the positional average.
• Example: Nick traded for C.J. Stroud after Week 9. At that point he was averaging 19.64 PPG, which would have been QB6 for the season. After the trade (for the rest of the FANTASY regular season), he averaged 16.99 PPG, which would have been QB17 for the season. In this case, Nick's grade decreases for Stroud.
• Consider the specific rosters involved.
• Example: Zacherman traded for Justin Jefferson, and only got one regular season start out of him. However, he was basically guaranteed to make the playoffs, he had Keenan Allen on his team already, and he made a number of moves to fill out his WR slot(s) to finish out the regular season. In this case, Zacherman's grade will not be decreased (as much) for JJ's 3.7 regular season points after the trade.
• Injuries don't matter. That's oversimplifying things, but in general, injuries are unpredictable (Tua stayed healthy all year, Rodgers played 4 snaps), likely don't factor into trade discussions, and if a player is ruled out, you can sub him out. 
• The obvious exception here is if a player is traded when he's already hurt (JJ) or he's widely considered injury prone (Mike Williams). 
• I am counting games where players left with injuries in their stats, because it is likely they would have been started that week.
• Once I have the PPG numbers and adjustments, I will assign new grades and see how they compare to the old ones.
• This is obviously not perfect, but it will at least be consistent.
• It also matters less early in the season when the "Before Trade" sample size is smaller. I'll include it no matter what, but that's a big caveat.
• This is Part 1 of 2, so I will cover the first 8 trades made this season.

Trade Re-Grade 1

Nick receives Dalvin Cook (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB91)
Weissbard receives Tyler Allgeier (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB47 and Jamaal Williams (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB78)

Some of these trades may be too close to call, if they involve different positions, different team situations, etc. This is not one of those. The rare preseason trade saw Weissbard get rid of a terrible Dalvin and pick up a flex candidate in Allgeier and a decent handcuff in Jamaal. 

Original Grades: Weissbard: B+; Nick: C+

Re-Grade: Weissbard: B+; Nick: D-

Trade Re-Grade 2

Bennett receives Jamaal Williams (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB79)and Gabe Davis (Before Trade: WR89; After Trade: WR42)
Weissbard receives Christian Watson (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: WR45) and Tutu Atwell (Before Trade: WR6; After Trade: WR68)

Weissbard thought he was buying low on Watson and selling low on Gabe (while probably knowing he was buying high on Tutu). All of those things were correct, but Gabe's 21 points in the semi-finals (not considered in the ranking stats) had a lot to do with BMO beating Ajay by less than a point (Watson and Tutu combined for 0.0).

Original Grades: Bennett: B-; Weissbard: B-

Re-Grade: Bennett: B+; Weissbard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 3

AGD receives Najee Harris (Before Trade: RB66; After Trade: RB35) and Amari Cooper (Before Trade: WR76; After Trade: WR36) 
Ajay receives Justin Herbert (Before Trade: QB3; After Trade: QB13)  and James Conner (Before Trade: RB37; After Trade: RB26) 

This is probably the most consequential trade made all season, but not for the obvious reasons. Herbert's injury doesn't really affect things here, as he got hurt in Week 14 and this just focuses on the regular season, but the aftermath of the trade literally changed who won the title. If Ajay didn't make this trade, he would have had Dak (QB5) and Goff (QB16), as well as Cooper, who put up 46 in the semi-finals where again, Ajay lost by less than a point. The Najee/Conner swap appeared to be the headline here, but is really an afterthought (and weirdly they both got like half of their NFL regular season points after the fantasy regular season).

Original Grades: AGD: A-; Ajay: C-

Re-Grade: AGD B+; Ajay: D

Trade Re-Grade 4

Ajay receives Mike Williams (Before Trade: WR64 ; After Trade: WR4)
Barnard receives Kyren Williams (Before Trade: RB3; After Trade: RB3)

This is probably the weirdest trade to grade, then or now. Mike Williams will always be an IR-stint waiting to happen. But when he's healthy, he is a legit starting WR, that Barnard had stuck to his bench. Kyren started the season on fire, and against all odds kept it up, as probably the most valuable player in the league given his draft cost. I don't fault either team for making this trade. It's impossible to grade this rationally knowing what comes in two sections, but this is as close to a master stroke that Barnard has made without PornHub involved.

Original Grades: Ajay: B+; Barnard: D

Re-Grade: Barnard: A-; Ajay: C+

We had a weird six week lull with no trades, so moving forward the Before/After will weigh more heavily in the re-grades.

Trade Re-Grade 5

Gutman receives Jahmyr Gibbs (Before Trade: RB27; After Trade: RB4) and Pierre Strong Jr. (Before Trade: RB80; After Trade: RB96)
Marco receives Trevor Lawrence (Before Trade: QB22; After Trade: QB6) and De'Von Achane (Before Trade: RB1; After Trade: RB22)

Similar to Big Mike, my methodology breaks down for someone like Achane, who played essentially 5 regular season games (this is a case where the injury does matter as he was hurt at the time), and got 50 points in one of them. Even if we consider him a flex option to split the baby between RB1 and injured, Marco traded a legit RB1 for a QB1 and a Flex. He was massively lacking at QB at the time, so I stand pretty much by my initial assessment, with Gut getting a boost from Gibbs.

Original Grades: Marco: B; Gutman: B-

Re-Grade: Gutman: B+; Marco: B

Trade Re-Grade 6

Ajay receives Kyren Williams (Before Trade: RB3; After Trade: RB2)
Barnard receives Jerry Jeudy (Before Trade: WR62; After Trade: WR69) and Dalton Schultz (Before Trade: TE9; After Trade: TE8)

I still can't believe Barnard traded Kyren back to Ajay, let alone for a WR5 and a stream-able TE. I feel like we didn't make a big enough deal about this at the time. Granted, Kyren was hurt at the time and Barnard needed to rally to even think about the playoffs, but this trade left him starting Zeke (three times!), Darrell Henderson, and Tyjae Spears at RB. He started Jeudy and Schultz a combined 8 times for the rest of the season.

Original Grades: Ajay: A; Barnard: D-

Re-Grade: Ajay: A; Barnard: D

Trade Re-Grade 7

Barnard receives Ezekiel Elliott (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB37), DJ Moore (Before Trade: WR6; After Trade: WR13), and Michael Thomas (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR99)
Zacherman receives Justice Hill (Before Trade: RB46; After Trade: RB79), Justin Jefferson (Before Trade: WR3; After Trade: WR96), and Pat Freiermuth (Before Trade: TE26; After Trade: TE17)

Lots of moving pieces in this trade, without much of them amounting to anything. Zacherman made his Stevens Bowl swing, and while it paid no dividends in the regular season, JJ did put up WR8 numbers in the playoffs (DJM was WR18). For Barnard, getting DJM was nice, but trading for Zeke somehow made him feel set at RB, which was unequivocally wrong. Can't keep Z at an A here, but Barnard stays the same.

Original Grades: Zacherman: A; Barnard: B-

Re-Grade: Zacherman: B; Barnard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 8

Ajay Receives Keyontay Ingram (Before Trade: RB72; After Trade: RB128)
Esco Receives Jeff Wilson Jr. (Before Trade: RB79; After Trade: RB72)

Ending Part 1 with a doozy! This was a backup handcuff trade at the time, and stayed that way. El Jeffe played after the trade and Keyontay really didn't so Esco "wins" here. Impact matters so no one gets super high or low.

Original Grades: Esco: B; Ajay: B- 

Re-Grade: Esco: B; Ajay: C

Back with Part 2 next week (or something like that.)