Week 7 Recap

Water always finds its level. Heading into Week 7, Alan suffered his first loss of the year due to terrible roster management, and Weissbard was on a surprise 3-game winning streak without ever breaking 75 points. Over that time, Weiss improved his roster by throwing out some massive Waiver bids, as well as trading AP for Jacquizz Rodgers at precisely the right moment, while Alan traded away Melvin Gordon to sure up his receiving corps, a move that has yet to pay off. Things looked ripe for a potentially huge upset.

But then...

The Masandiassance lives on.


Playoff Odds

After Week 7:
No team has started 7-0
100% (4/4) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
50% (5/10) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

After Week 8:
No team has started 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams made the playoffs
100% (6/6) of 6-2 teams made the playoffs
63% (5/8) of 5-3 teams made the playoffs
38% (4/13) of 4-4 teams made the playoffs
13% (1/8) of 3-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 2-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams made the playoffs
No team has started 0-8

Lots of playoff implications this week. Gutman and Levine have the chance to join Alan in the 100% club (other than NiJo Rule/Division Champ implications). And they play each other. There is a 25% gap between 5-3 and 4-4, so there is also a lot at stake for BAM, Bennett, and Zacherman, with BAM and Bennett facing each other. Big picture: based on the last 4 years of playoff odds, every team still has a chance. However, one more loss for Marco, Bruno or AGD would officially eliminate them, and AGD and Bruno are facing off. Picking Matchup of the Week is gonna be tough.


NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Party Crashers:

• Zacherman - 5th place, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 7th place, 4th in points
• Kumpf - 8th place, 5th in points

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 4th place, 11th in points
• BAM - 6th place, 6th in points
• Bennett - 7th place, 7th in points

Playoff Predictions

1. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
2. Gutman - BYE - Division Champ
3. BAM
4. Zacherman
5. Bennett
6. Kumpf - NiJo rule over Levine

If I don't qualify under the NiJo rule, Levine still wouldn't make the playoffs, as our Division Champ rule would put the top team from Ajay's division into the playoffs. Which right now I'm guessing is Barnard.

Team of the Week - Alan

I know that these posts are all very Alan-centric, but this is the world we're living in. I'm not putting him up here simply because he had the highest score of the week by 30 points, but because it's also important to note how it happened. As I mentioned, he traded away Melvin Gordon two weeks ago. Shady was banged up and glued to the bench. And high-priced receiver Allen Robinson put up a whopping 0.9 points in the starting lineup. Other than those low points, every other player in his lineup put up at least 13.3 points, including another ridiculous week by Jay Ajayi, who honestly should have been dropped after Week 1. Barnard needs a win this week, but with Gurley on a bye, I have a feeling that Alan will be dragging his ass all over Barnard's carpet.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Marco starting Kirk Cousins over Matt Stafford

With his season all but over, Marco chose to go down with the ship rather than go against his team. Given the way Stafford has played recently, I'm not sure I would have done the same thing, but Captain Kirk rewarded his faith with a ridiculous rushing TD that proved to be the difference in the game. The Skins may have ultimately lost, but Marco's faith in them kept his season alive, albeit on life support.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Tyler Eifert over Julius Thomas

So many options this week:

• Bennett starting Matt Jones and T.J. Yeldon over Chris Thompson
• Bennett starting Cameron Meredith over Michael Thomas
• Barnard starting Todd Gurley over Matt Forte
• Esco starting Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Pierre Garcon over Tavon Austin
• AGD starting DeAndre Hopkins, Mohamed Sanu, Lamar Miller, Christine Michael and James White over Davante Adams

I almost gave this to AGD simply because they had so may opportunities to start Adams, but I think Barnard takes the cake here. Eifert has been hurt for so long, and had so many setbacks, that any intelligent fantasy football owner would have at least waited to see how he looked before starting him. Especially with a backup like Julius going against a porous defense in Oakland. Instead, Barnard made the curious choice of starting Eifert in a game that Cincy was assuredly going to win, and thus not risk injuring their start TE, and he paid for it.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM's no show

I haven't mentioned Billy and Marshall too much this year, but they've put together a roster that's capable of putting up some serious points. The roster also has some terrifying holes. They're over-reliant on the dynamic duo of Zeke and ODB (not necessarily a bad thing), as well as the surprising performances of Marvin Jones (seems legit) and Spencer Ware (Charles' presence is looming like a guillotine). Most importantly, they literally do not have a quarterback. When things are rolling on all cylinders, they can put up 90+, as they've done in their four wins, but when things go wrong, they can go way wrong. This league has inherently shallow rosters, but I don't think any good team is as thin as this one.


Biggest Matchup of Week 8 - BAM vs. Bennett

I really wanted to go with Gutman/Levine, but I feel like Levine is involved here every week, I pick against him, and he benefits from the Kumpf Kurse. So this week I'm going to continue focusing on BAM, and highlight their matchup with Bennett. Bye weeks are wreaking havoc on these rosters, with ODB, Antonio and Ben all out of commission. BAM gets Zeke back, and will likely pick up a QB, but this team is actually going to miss the presence of Kenny Britt. Bennett at least has Matty Ice to fall back on, as well as the seemingly rejuvenated Davante Adams, so I'm gonna go ahead and pick him. Bennett, you've been Kursed.

Week 6 Recap

What a week in fantasy football. The end of the Masandaissance continues the Kumpf Kurse, which expands beyond FALAFEL. I'm in four different leagues this year, and through six weeks I have let up the most points in every fucking league. Considering those leagues contain 16, 14, 12, and 10 teams respectively, the chances of that happening is about 1 in 27,000. So while I know several people in this league (namely Ajay) are still pissed about the Bruno trades, you'll be happy to know that Sundays have been terrible for me all year. Gutman's luck has been better so far, but he ran into the top score this week, so things could be turning for him too.


Playoff Odds

After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

Alan's close loss continues this league's tradition of not having a 6-0 team since at least 2012. I think Z was something like 10-0 in 2010 before losing to yours truly, and Ajay went undefeated into the title game in the Cortesian era before losing to Teezy himself, but for these purposes, 5-0 appears to be the upper limit.

After Week 7:
No team has started 7-0
100% (4/4) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
50% (5/10) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs

This week the biggest takeaway is that you want to be over .500 after Week 7. That means that 4 teams (Bruno, Marco, AGD and myself*) are as good as done already. It also means that this is a huge week for Barnard, Ajay, Weissbard, Zacherman and Esco, as they set their eyes on the playoffs. Alan, Gutman and BAM are the clear upper crust still, and will likely be fighting for the two byes.


*NIJO Rule Watch

As a reminder, the NIJO rule states:

The top five teams according to record get the top five seeds. Sixth seed goes to the highest scoring team outside the top five, unless that team is fourth or lower in points, in which case sixth seed goes to the team with the sixth best record. If the sixth place team according to record is in the top three in points, they are protected and automatically get the sixth seed, even if a team with a worse record has more points than them. Division winners get an automatic spot in the top six in the standings, but don't get any advantage with regard to seeding, and are not protected from the NIJO rule merely by virtue of being division winners.

I'm currently fifth in scoring despite being the 11th seed overall, and Zacherman is fourth despite being 7th overall. Both of us loom large as potential NIJO candidates down the road. The team that should be most afraid is Levine (6th seed, 10th in scoring), but Esco (9th seed, 9th in scoring) and even Weissbard (10th seed, 14th in scoring) will be vulnerable if they keep getting lucky wins. I'll be keeping track of this as the season progresses and I keep letting up 100+ points per week.


Team of the Week: AGD

This was an easy one. After five weeks of underachieving, and being last week's "Biggest Surprise of the Week," AGD came back with a vengeance. They earned the high score of the week while getting less than 10 points combined from their receivers. If they had started Torrey Smith and Sanu, they could have had the highest score all year one week after having the lowest score of the year, which is simply amazing. They still have a lot of ground to make up after a slow start, but I'm not ruling them out just yet (more to come on that).


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: BAM starting John Brown over Travis Benjamin or Philip Dorsett

Yes, they could have won easily if they started Spencer Ware over any of these guys, but choosing Brown was by no means a slam dunk. He put up over 1.5 points in only one game this year before Monday, and Arizona looked out of sorts, so I probably would have chosen Benjamin in this case. But BAM was proved correct, and in doing so ended the Masandaissance.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Alan :(

Apologies to Marco (Cousins over Stafford) and myself (Carr and Kelvin over Eli and JStew), but Alan cost himself a chance at 6-0 in spectacular fashion. He would have won if he made any of the following start/sit decisions:

• Ajayi over Bernard
• Ajayi over Enunwa
• Boyd over Crabtree
• Doyle over Enunwa
• Beasley over Robinson
• Beasley over Crabtree
• Beasley over Enunwa

Obviously Ajayi came out of nowhere, and Boyd/Doyle wouldn't have been smart process decisions. I would call Beasley/Enunwa a coin flip a the flex, but it has to hurt when you pulled Beasley at the last minute. Maybe Alan Can't Hang.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Esco's single digits

He avoided the Christmas Card, but Esco's point total was completely unexpected. Not just that he finished in the 40s, but that he put up an incredible show of mediocrity. In the previous low scores by Weiss and AGD, they at least had one player reach double figures, albeit barely. Finishing a week without anyone having a good game is unprecedented in my memory.


Biggest Matchup of Week 7: Levine vs. AGD

None of our five 3-3 teams are facing each other, so this matchup becomes increasingly important due to NIJO rules. As previously mentioned, Levine needs to put up some points and stay above the 6th seed to avoid missing out on the playoffs, while AGD needs to win enough to qualify on their own, as Z and myself will likely trump them in NIJO rule priority. I really want to pick Levine and give him the Kumpf Kurse, but I just like AGD's team better this week, and they get their Texans on MNF to have the last word. AGD, consider yourself Kursed.

Week 5 Recap

Week 5 was an absolute dumpster fire for this league. Bruno's lineup decisions aside, the following players were all starting this week: Jacquizz Rodgers, Quincy Enunwa, Dontrelle Inman, Jesse James, Orleans Darkwa, Tyrell Williams, Terrance West, Jeremy Kerley, Jamison Crowder, Zach Zenner, DeAndre Washington, and Lance Kendricks. And that doesn't even include any of the players AGD started en route to 36.7 points. If the Christmas card contains anything less than explicit anal, I'll be disappointed.

Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (1/1) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
21% (3/14) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

The playoff picture is starting to take shape. Alan and Gutman are looking like good bets, and BAM, Bennett and Esco have to be happy with their position as well. Beyond those 5 teams, I would say that Ajay, Zacherman and myself have the best chance to join the party, with Barnard and Levine looming as dark horses. That leaves Marco, Bruno, Weissbard and AGD as good as done. Of those four teams, I'm only willing to truly write off Weiss and Bruno, but another loss from Marco or AGD will be the nail in the coffin.


Team of the Week - Zacherman

He sold his soul to the devil, but it might actually work. After struggling without Brady and Gronk (who he still started twice anyway), and then losing Dez, it would have been easy to write off this team. But this week showed us what Z is capable of. Still without Dez, he had Brady, Gronk, Jordy and Murray combine for 65. If his other four lineup spots can put up even 5 points each, he can compete every week. There is a clear hole at RB2 and Flex, but we could look back at Week 5 as the start of a run by Z.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard sticking with Martellus Bennett

The Pats offense has been pretty difficult to figure out this year. Between Brady's suspension, injuries to Gronk and Lewis, and their stable of white receivers, it's hard to rely on anyone confidently. With Brady back and Gronk healthy, you could forgive Weissbard for going to the waiver wire for TE help, rather than risk Brady being out of sync with the Black Unicorn. He showed faith, and the Unicorn rewarded him.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Ajay starting Jeremy Hill over Tevin Coleman

Yes, Coleman was going up against Denver's D. But their biggest weakness is stopping the run, as well as stopping pass-catching RBs, which fits Coleman to a tee. Combine that with Hill being banged up all week, and this was at least a decision that needed to be made. Ajay made the wrong one, and it cost him the win.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - AGD

I could chalk this up as biggest surprise of the season as well. AGD has the best overall record since this league began, has made the Stevens Bowl the last two years, and won it once. Maybe you could say that they were due for a rough year. But I liked their team well enough post-draft, and despite losing Dion Lewis immediately, they lucked into Christine Michael. They got hit pretty hard with byes this week, but even at full strength, the ceiling for this team is pretty low.


Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - BAM vs. Alan

While I personally think that me vs. Z is going to be more important in the long run, as the loser drops to a very tenuous 2-4, a battle between our top two teams by points scored will be more entertaining. This also gives Alan the opportunity to be our first 6-0 team in the last four years. Given that my track record in picking the winner of these matchups isn't great, I'm going to pre-emptively apologize to Alan for picking him. We'll see if the stench of my pick is enough to take the luster off the Masandaissance.

Week 4 Recap

With four games coming down to MNF, three of which ended up within 10 points of each other, this was by far our most entertaining week of the season. My Matchup of the Week was decided by 2.3 points, which is two weeks in a row that I've called a close game. In the sports world, we call that a streak. Speaking of streaking, can anyone stop Alan? I'm on deck, but my team is ravaged by injuries and byes. We could very well be living in a world where Alan is 5-0.


Playoff Odds

After Week 4:
100% (2/2) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
45% (9/20) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams made the playoffs

After Week 5:
100% (1/1) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
21% (3/14) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

The playoff odds are starting to show a clear delineation between contenders and pretenders. Anyone that finishes this week above .500 is looking pretty good. Anyone below .500 needs some serious help. We surprisingly have no matchup between 2-2 teams, but for a team like Esco (who has only outscored 4 teams), this week can be huge in terms of banking wins.


Team of the Week - Levine

I can't give Bennett credit for starting his studs, and weirdly benching Yeldon for Dwayne Washington. I can't give my team credit when my team is really just Julio and friends. And I can't give Alan more credit because he's honestly starting to get pretty full of himself.

That leaves Levine, who sits at 3-1 despite only outscoring Weissbard and Bruno. However, he now has Leveon back in the fold, and got past the Lacy/Cobb byes unscathed. To his credit, he's been all aboard the Will Fuller train, and now has one of the deepest teams in the league (other than that abomination at QB).


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Ajay picking up and starting Dak Prescott over Jacoby Brissett

There were no start/sit decisions that won games this week, so I'm going to give the award to Ajay for showing restraint and not getting carried away with the Pats hype. Granted, guys like Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith and Case Keenum would have won the game for Ajay as well, but not all Pats fans made the same wise decisions.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Gronk over Cameron Brate

I had a similar issue with Barnard starting Edelman (who at least had a chance of playing QB) over Crabtree, but I don't understand why you would start anyone involved with the Pats passing game under Jake Brisket. Obviously Martellus Bennett had a big day, but with Gronk still banged up, it seems like a big risk to take a goose egg at TE when you have a serviceable backup available. At 1-3, Z is two roster moves away from 3-1, which has to hurt almost as much as it will to start Brady next week.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - Weissbard won!

I honestly didn't think it was going to happen, unless he maaaaybe beat Bruno, but Weiss actually won a game. Not only that, but he beat a previously overconfident Barnard team while voluntarily keeping his highest scoring player on his bench. Cheers to you Weissbard, you now have the same amount of wins as AGD and Marco.


Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - BAM vs. Marco

No obvious choice this week, so I'll pick a game where each team has a lot at stake. As previously mentioned, the difference between 3-2 and 2-3 is 39% in playoff odds, so BAM can put themselves (and their very solid roster) in a good position moving forward. By doing so, they would essentially end the season for Marco, who was up 40 points after last Thursday's game, only for Julio to crush his dreams. Given that Marco has yet to score less than 82 points, but still sits at 1-3, I think his luck turns this week and he keeps his season alive.