Week 3 Recap

No intro needed this week, as the name of the game is trades.

Trade Grade 8
AGD receives Ryquell Armstead and Jalen Richard
Bennett receives Raheem Mostert
Yawn. Can't imagine Armstead or Richard cracking AGD's starting lineup by choice, which says a lot about both their team and the quality of players acquired. Mostert becomes RB3 in the San Fran backfield once Coleman is healthy, but Tevin and Breida are both pretty fragile and that running game has been very solid so far. I've already spent too much time thinking about this trade.
AGD Grade: C-
Bennett Grade: B-

Trade Grade 9 (Brought to you by throwback trade grader Esco)
Kumpf receives Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, and George Kittle
Weissbard receives Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, and DJ Chark

Easily the biggest trade of the season so far, only the AGD/Marco Hopkins trade comes close. Tough to see this as anything less than a home run for Kumpf right off the bat. He gave up two FLEX caliber players who have yet to start for his team and Marlon Mack for a short term reduction in RB2 production, a massive upgrade at TE and a potential for the best two RBs in football for the home stretch of the season. This is only an A- because if the Daniel Jones magic doesn’t continue, there is a plausible scenario where the Giants shut down Saquon to avoid any re-injury risk, Gallman loses the starting job in 2 weeks and Damien Williams can’t stay healthy making the RB2 situation dire. The risk is worth it for the coat though.

Assuming Weissbard lined up the Monty / Thielen trade (which I think was fantastic for him) prior to pulling the trigger, here is his roster composition pre/post blockbuster trade

While he gets an RB1 for his fight for playoff survival, he now has a much harder roster decision to make every week. Brown, Metcalf and Chark are all big play dependent WRs and picking correctly between them and Hyde is going to be very difficult. There will be weeks where the core team carries him to a win but there will also be many weeks where the highest scoring WR is on the bench. There is also legitimate concern for Mack’s health. He’s leading the league with 61 carries through 3 games and his career high in season carries (college or pro) is 212 which he will pass by the 11^th game of the year at this rate. However, this was a trade that had to be made. At 0-3 in a hypercompetitive division, Weissbard can’t wait for the bye week, can’t wait for Saquon, he needs wins now.

Kumpf Grade: A-
Weissbard Grade: C+

Trade Grade 10
Alan receives David Montgomery and Cole Beasley
Weissbard receives Adam Thielen
Alan has had a very quietly solid season so far. Nothing crazy, but he's put up good numbers and his draft looks way better in hindsight than it did at the time. Then he goes and trades a top 15 WR for a flex-at-best RB, and undoes all of that good will. Yes, Melvin is coming back soon, and yes, Latavius isn't reliable week to week, but NO Montgomery is not the answer. As Esco mentioned above, this is a great trade for Weissbard on its own, made even better when looked at in combination of the Mack trade (though I do agree with the specific trade grades Esco gave out). I don't think this saves Weissbard's season or tanks Alan's, but it certainly helps one team more than the other.
Alan Grade: D
Weissbard Grade: A

Trade Grade 11
Barnard receives Sony Michel and Brandin Cooks
Esco receives Michael Thomas and Gus Edwards
This is my hardest trade to grade so far this year. From a value perspective, I think Barnard did a great job turning a potentially diminishing asset in Thomas into two starters, and Cooks could potentially outscore Thomas over the rest of the season. However, I really don't like Michel or Cooks, and I absolutely feel like if Michel was on any other team, Barnard doesn't do this trade. From Esco's side, it makes sense to combine depth for no-doubt starters, which Thomas is even with Teddy at QB. Overall that makes the trade relatively even, with the off-chance that Esco is trying boost Barnard's chef's coat chances as the founding member of the Nard Dawgs.
Barnard Grade: B
Esco Grade: B+

I'm already exhausted and we haven't even gotten to the rankings yet.

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Good News: I don't think I've seen a trade pay more immediate dividends than the Evans acquisition, which single-handedly won you the week.
Bad News: Barring unexpected relevance from Kareem Hunt, your trade options are pretty much exhausted, and that RB duo isn't winning you any weeks on their own (which has traditionally been the mark of a Stevens Bowl contender).

2. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Good News: While Hockenson has fallen off a cliff, Will Dissly looks like a potential Waiver Pickup of the Year candidate.
Bad News: Depth continues to be a concern as your bench is simply not scoring any points.

3. Kumpf (Last Week: 4)
Good News: I plugged my biggest hole at TE in a trade that also netted the most expensive player in the draft while only giving up one starter.
Bad News: My Stevens Bowl hopes are now way more dependent on the Giants than I am comfortable with.

4. Billy (Last Week: 2)
Good News: The boom/bust model which led you to the misguided AB trade paid off in spades with Kamara and the Bears D carrying you to a huge win and reversing the #Kurse.
Bad News: Receiver situation aside, you are shockingly thin at RB and have none of your handcuffs.

5. Levine (Last Week: 8)
Good News: Despite the loss, you showed off the ceiling that I previously did not think this team had, and Keenan Allen is headed for a WR1 season if he stays healthy.
Bad News: Despite being 5th in the Power Rankings, two of the teams ahead of you are in your division.

6. Marco (Last Week: 7)
Good News: You nearly put up 100 even with terrible lineup management, and are somehow tied for the division lead at 1-2.
Bad News: For someone who loves trading and making big splashes, you have the most unexciting team I've ever seen.

7. Alan (Last Week: 6)
Good News: You have impressive RB depth, which should be beneficial in trade talks after injuries and byes hit.
Bad News: For some reason you traded a WR, which you are relatively thin at, for yet another RB.

8. Nick (Last Week: 9)
Good News: You broke 100 while getting less than 6 points combined from Gurley and Ridley, while starting Andy Dalton.
Bad News: On your wedding weekend, you got a painful reminder of why you left fantasy football in the first place.

9. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Good News: Trading for Michael Thomas gives you a definitive answer to one of your weekly lineup questions.
Bad News: You still have 7 more weekly lineup questions.

10. Weissbard (Last Week: 5)
Good News: You were shockingly reasonable in making trades while blowing up a team you (and I) felt great about after the draft.
Bad News: You are shockingly terrible at drafting a division.

11. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: O.J. Howard scored some points this week.
Bad News: Dallas Goedert did not.

12. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: Week 3 may have been Mahomes worst game of the season and he almost put up 30.
Bad News: Relying on Greg Olsen to carry your team hasn't been a viable strategy since 2012.

13. Ajay (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Even though you lost to Barnard, you still have a chef's hat and coat.
Bad News: Having a deep team with upside is better than having a terrible team with no upside, but it still doesn't help you break 80.

14. Barnard  (Last Week: 14)
Good News: Melvin's imminent return will help you survive the imminent regression from your over-performing roster.
Bad News: These rankings continue to be forward-focusing and are written by an allegedly biased journalist, so you stay in last until your offense breaks 80 points.


Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Kumpf
The varsity undefeated matchup to Gutman and Barnard's JV version lost a little bit of its luster, but should still be a tight matchup. My trade for an injured Saquon and an on-bye Kittle is matched by Leveon also being on bye, introducing guys like Jalen Richard, Marvin Jones, MVS, and human waste of 12 auction dollars Jared Cook into the equation. The schedule doesn't make for a very dramatic weekend, with no MNF options, so I expect a lot of action throughout the day on Sunday. And the matchups aren't really one-sided in either direction, which can often determine how these matchups go. This one probably comes down to Damien Williams health. If he can go, I can roll out a solid roster outside of Cook and should be able to overcome an explosion by Hopkins or Evans. If he's out I get to chose between Wayne Gallman and Justin Jackson, and AGD gets to go 4-0. As of now, it looks like he's going to play, so it looks like I done #Kursed myself.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 1-2


Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Texans (-4) vs. Panthers - Loss
Titans (+4) at Falcons - Win
Redskins (+3) at Giants - Loss
Rams (-10) vs. Bucs - Loss
Jaguars (+3) at Broncos - Win
Saints (+3) vs. Cowboys - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 11-10 (-0.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Arizona State (+4.5) at California - Win
TCU (-15.5) vs. Kansas - Win
North Carolina (+27) vs. Clemson - Win
Baylor (+3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Virginia - Win
Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska - Win
Washington State (+6) at Utah - Loss
Last Week: 9-1-1
2019 Record: 20-13-1 (+5.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Everton (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Arsenal - Push
Last Week: 2-0-2
2019-20 Record: 11-10-8 (-.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Chelsea (-230) vs. Brighton - Win
Tottenham (-215) vs. Southampton - Win
Crystal Palace (-110) vs. Norwich - Win
Bournemouth (+150) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 8-4 (+0.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

2019-20 Record: 0-1-2 (-1.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0

2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)

Week 2 Recap

The last week has been defined by trades and injuries. I'm pretty sure we've set records for Hall of Fame QBs (plus Eli) going to the bench for one reason or another, as well as trades through two weeks of the fantasy season thanks to Ajay's sneaky strategy of scooping up handcuffs. Let's get to the grades.

Trade Grade 4
Ajay receives Adrian Peterson
Marco receives Dion Lewis and C.J. Anderson
Well this one took a turn quickly, but the grade goes for the value at the time. Ajay had an extremely dire situation at RB, and was able to turn guys that would only have potential value with an injury into a guy that already has value due to an injury. I don't think AP would be more than a flex option for most teams, but this is a huge upgrade for Ajay and also gives him the primary Washington ball carrier even if/when Guice comes back (not sure if that's a compliment). Marco obvious feels dumb for trading for a guy who was cut before the trade even went through, but handcuffs have more value in this league than in most. Even if it was just an AP for Lewis swap (which it basically is now), it's not terrible for Marco.
Ajay Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B-

Trade Grade 5
AGD receives Mike Evans, Mecole Hardman, and Ty Montgomery
Ajay receives D.J. Moore, Malcolm Brown, and Baker Mayfield
Blockbuster! AGD rectifies their Baker mistake by upgrading at WR, adding an upside WR, and getting Leveon's handcuff. It's truly amazing how much better they operate as a team, as they're basically Matt Damon and Greg Kinnear in Stuck on You. Evans hasn't looked elite yet this year, but his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Moore, and that makes a difference for a team with Chef hat aspirations. I don't hate this for Ajay either, as I assumed someone would trade rape him for a QB, yet he ends up with Baker (and the OBJ connection). Moore is a risk with the way Cam looks, but his target share will be high regardless, and he could end up outscoring Evans on the year. Given the way he's operated this week, I see a potential trade between Ajay and Nick at some point surrounding Brown. Well done by both sides here.
AGD Grade: A-
Ajay Grade: A

Trade Grade 6
Bennett receives Robert Woods and Matt Breida
Billy receives Antonio Brown
Reeeeeally hate this for Billy. I would value Woods over Brown on his own from a reliability perspective, but adding Breida to the mix and giving Bennett the surprisingly effective 49ers backfield is the cherry on top. Brown could end up as a top 5 receiver in an explosive offense, but at this point I think he's more likely to end up out of the league. Can't believe I'm saying this but by trading away an alleged rapist, Bennett became a trade rapist.
Bennett Grade: A+
Billy Grade: D

Trade Grade 7
Marco receives Chris Thompson
Weissbard received DK Metcalf
Marco couldn't last 48 hours without a Redskins RB, and he got one without really affecting his WR rotation. I'm surprised that Weissbard didn't need to work harder for a WR after his GroupMe plea, but the fact that Metcalf immediately becomes a starter speaks for itself. My immediate reaction when I saw this trade was "That's a very even trade that is unlikely to move the needle for either team," and the grades reflect that.
Marco Grade: B-
Weissbard Grade: B-

On to everyone else.

Week 3 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 2)
Good News: Trades aside, the move of the season might be drafting Mark Andrews for $3.
Bad News: Watson seems like a torn ACL waiting to happen on every play (I'm aware that this is hypocritical based on my comments about the Baker pick, but there's not a lot to choose from).

2. Billy (Last Week: 1)
Good News: While the double goose eggs from Alshon and Njoku were unfortunate, they were unlikely to make up the 30 point gap between you and AGD.
Bad News: Those injuries lower your ceiling as you head into a potentially difficult (and definitely important) stretch of the schedule.

3. Gutman (Last Week: 4)
Good News: Through two weeks you have the #2 QB, two top 13 RBs, three top 20 WRs, and two top 7 TEs.
Bad News: None of that touches on your bench, and an injury would be potentially crippling considering the drop-off.

4. Kumpf (Last Week: 7)
Good News: I'm 2-0 without much help at all from the QB and TE positions.
Bad News: I might not be getting much help all season from the QB and TE positions.

5. Weissbard (Last Week: 5)
Good News: Despite a tough loss, your roster looks like it's in great shape at QB, RB, and TE.
Bad News: You're going to have to decide if you want to sacrifice your strengths to upgrade at WR, because things are looking bleak.

6. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Good News: Your roster is solid or better across the board, giving you one of the highest floors in the league.
Bad News: It feels like you're a player away from being a true contender, whether that's at RB2 or Flex.

7. Marco (Last Week: 11)
Good News: You continue to be open for business, which makes the league more fun and seems to be contagious (Now that's a true compliment).
Bad News: Your roster is a slightly lesser version of Alan's (Now that's a true insult).

8. Levine (Last Week: 6)
Good News: You took down an ominous Joseph team despite getting underperformances from a lot of roster spots.
Bad News: If Lamar comes back down to Earth, I'm not sure if the rest of the roster has enough juice to push you to your usual heights.

9. Nick (Last Week: 3)
Good News: A Brees injury, McCaffrey dud, and Desean goose egg are probably not going to happen in the same week again.
Bad News: As good as things looked last week, that's how bad they looked this week, exposing your true ceiling/floor.

10. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Good News: The beauty of depth is that when Cam, Duke, and Lindsay look like bad picks, you can replace them with Josh Allen, Tyrell, and Golladay.
Bad News: Your roster is a slightly lesser version of Marco's.

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: It doesn't look like you'll have playoff heartbreak this year.
Bad News: JuJu lost Ben, Watkins wasn't great after you traded for him, Amendola put up a goose egg after you dropped $80+ on him, Singletary's hurt, etc.

12. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: You've done a shockingly good job putting together a WR group after what happened with Green/Tyreek/Gallup/AB.
Bad News: Depending on how Pitt's offense can function without Ben, once Coleman comes back you might not have a single reliable RB week-to-week.

13. Ajay (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Considering how absolutely terrible things looked last week, I'm honestly impressed that your built up a decent core with upside depth.
Bad News: This is still not a good team, and calling a matchup with Barnard "must-win" isn't a good sign for your season.

14. Barnard  (Last Week: 14)
Good News: The first two weeks could not have gone any better (Brees injury aside), and two wins are banked.
Bad News: Relying on your defense for 25% of your total scoring is likely not a sustainable strategy.


Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Levine
No undefeated matchups this week, so our one divisional matchup takes on the most importance here. The winner is at worst a game back of the division lead, while the loser puts itself in a bit of hole in the race for the automatic playoff spot. I was wrong about this last week, but Brady and Zeke might sit the entire second halves of their matchups again this week, opening the door for a thus-far underwhelming Levine squad. Combine that with a likely shootout in KC, and I can see Billy being in a bit of a hole early on. It also remains to be seen how Kamara can operate as the focal point of the offense, so to win this I think Billy needs the Bears D to outscore Robinson + Vernon on MNF. While anything is possible with Keenum at QB, I think Levine holds on in a close one.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 1-1


Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos - Win
Lions (+7) at Eagles - Win
Chargers (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
49ers (-7) vs. Steelers - Loss
Rams (-3) at Browns - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 8-7 (-0.15 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
USC (+4) vs. Utah - Win
Florida (-14) vs. Tennessee - Win
Michigan State (9.5) at Northwestern - Win
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Michigan - Win
Auburn (+3.5) at Texas A+M - Win
South Carolina (+10) at Missouri - Loss
West Virginia (-4) at Kansas - Win
Oregon (-10) at Stanford - Win
Oklahoma State (+6) at Texas - Push
Illinois (+14) vs. Nebraska - Win
Notre Dame (+14.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-5
2019 Record: 14-12-1 (+0.96 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Win
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Brighton - Push
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. Wolves - Push
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019-20 Record: 11-9-7 (+.03 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Burnley (Even) vs. Norwich - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+0.12 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Liverpool (Pick) at Napoli - Loss
Barcelona (Pick) at Dortmund - Push
Atletico Madrid (Pick) vs. Juventus - Push
2019-20 Record: 0-1-2 (-1.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
RB Leipzig (+170) at Benfica - Win
Club Brugge (-110) vs. Galatasaray - Loss
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)

Week 1 Recap

One week down and what a week it was. We had a little bit of everything: a new high score, a 100+ point win, the defending champ going down, a potentially big Tyreek injury, and even a Barnard win. And that doesn't even get into Zacherman's wild Wednesday. Even before the first (of hopefully many) in-season trades, we had some extremely irresponsible waiver bids. Z, I think Danny Amendola's mother would be surprised at that bid. Regardless, football is back and all is right with the world.


Trade Grade 3
Marco receives Kerryon Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald
Zacherman receives Devin Singletary and Sammy Watkins
There were a few batshit crazy stat lines in Week 1, none moreso than Sammy slamming the Jags. Obviously the Tyreek injury makes Watkins a no-doubt starter, but it's not like he's a young talent just getting his first shot. We've seen this story before and it usually ends with injury and/or underperformance. Conditions have never been better for him, but I think he's more likely to approximate 75% of Tyreek's production instead of 100%. Still valuable, but probably not worth giving up a starting RB when you aren't exactly overwhelming with backfield talent. Singletary looked good as well, but Gore and Yeldon still exist and Buffalo isn't an offense that's likely to produce fantasy studs. I don't hate the value overall for Z, but I think he's massively overreacting to Week 1 and ignoring his roster construction.

On Marco's side, he's done a great job of building up his depth, while dealing his studs, real (Hopkins) or perceived (Watkins). Kerryon didn't look great in Week 1, but I think he makes a great combo with Henry. And Fitz is somehow still not aging, and could potentially outscore Sammy for the rest of the season. I'm always in favor of selling high after Week 1, and Marco did a nice job here.

Marco Grade: B+
Zacherman Grade: C+


This year, I'm going to mix things up a little bit for the meat of these posts. Instead of the usual segments, I'm going back to the tried and true Power Rankings. These rankings won't be based on CPP or OAM or any of the acronyms I used back in my JnJ days. Instead, they come straight from the gut, looking a little bit at past performance but mainly how things look moving forward. This allows me to speak on each team every week, and I'm using that opportunity to look at things from both a positive and negative light.

Week 2 Power Rankings
1. Billy (Post Draft: t1)
Good News: The rich get richer, as Matt Breida is slated as the starter in San Fran, plugging the one real hole in your starting lineup.
Bad News: It will be impossible to choose between your trio of Texans receivers on a weekly basis, if it ever comes to that.

2. AGD (Post Draft: t10)
Good News: Your previously questionable depth does not appear to be as dire as I thought, given the explosions from John Ross and Malcolm Brown.
Bad News: Baker's rough start makes it impossible to sell high on him, which is really the only use he has on your team.

3. Nick (Post Draft: t3)
Good News: You haven't lost your touch, as everything you touched turned to gold in Week 1.
Bad News: Gurley's usage did not inspire confidence, and Henderson does not appear to be his handcuff at this point.

4. Gutman (Post Draft: t10)
Goods News: Lots to go around here, but to me the best news is that your depth seems like it has some serious upside.
Bad News: Other than your team name, you're going to have a very difficult flex decision every week.

5. Weissbard (Post Draft: t1)
Good News: Josh Jacobs looks like he might get a Saquon-like workload, as does Saquon.
Bad News: That WR performance did not look good, and the top-heaviness of your team makes trades difficult.

6. Levine (Post Draft: t7)
Good News: Lamar and your receivers should give you a very high floor on a weekly basis.
Bad News: Your RB situation is going to be a problem, as they are all involved in timeshares and none of them looked particularly good.

7. Kumpf (Post Draft: t5)
Goods News: I probably have the highest number of startable players in the league right now.
Bad News: I can't rely on everyone on my team scoring a TD every week, so Week 1 may have been my ceiling.

8. Alan (Post Draft: t12)
Good News: The Ekeler/Murray combo appears to be a viable starting RB strategy.
Bad News: The run/pass mix in Minnesota doesn't bode well for Thielen (or Cousins).

9. Zacherman (Post Draft: t3)
Good News: Ankle injury aside, Mahomes does not appear to be regressing to the mean.
Bad News: Your previously enviable RB depth may not even give you one reliable starter, even more so after your trade.

10. Esco (Post Draft: 9)
Good News: You had nine players score more than 8.5 points.
Bad News: You had five starters score less than 5.5 points.

11. Marco (Post Draft: t7)
Good News: Sammy Watkins may have seen his situation improve more than any other player after Week 1, which takes some of the sting off losing Hopkins. You used Sammy's huge week to upgrade at RB, and likely WR as well when Tyreek comes back.
Bad News: You may be the only team to lose to Barnard this year, which happened by just 2.1 points, and could have been avoided with better lineup decisions.

12. Bennett (Post Draft: t5)
Good News: You got to enjoy Wentz leading the Eagles' comeback as he got you 25 points.
Bad News: Your wide receivers make me laugh.

13. Ajay (Post Draft: t12)
Good News: If there was ever a week to put up 55 points, it's when your opponent puts up nearly 160.
Bad News: Other than "just playing better" I don't know what can be done to improve your situation.

14. Barnard  (Post Draft: 14)
Goods News: Brissett-to-Hilton showed way more life than I expected, and led you to a surprising win.
Bad News: Your RB situation somehow looks even worse than it did after the draft.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Billy
A heavyweight showdown already! The Old Bay Bowl features #1 vs. #2 in the power rankings and could go a long way towards determining who gets a bye at the end of the year. Unfortunately for AGD, Billy has the superior roster as well as the superior matchups this week. Their only hope is that Brady, Zeke and maybe Breida don't play the whole games if their teams are running up the score. Otherwise, I see this one as being as big of a blowout as we should see in Miami this week.
Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 1-0


Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Colts - Loss
Seahawks (+4) at Steelers - Win
49ers (+2) at Bengals - Win
Saints (+3) at Rams - Loss
Jets (+3) vs. Browns - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 5-5 (-0.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
North Carolina (+3) at Wake Forest - Loss
Washington State (-9) at Houston - Loss
NC State (-7) at West Virginia - Loss
Central Florida (-9) vs. Stanford - Win
USC (-4.5) at BYU - Loss
Iowa (-3) at Iowa State - Loss
Last Week: 4-4
2019 Record: 6-11 (-5.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Sheffield (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Everton - Win
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. West Ham - Push
Last Week: 0-2-2
2019-20 Record: 9-9-5 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 4-3 (-0.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets
DC United (+1) at Portland - Win
Colorado (+1.5) at Toronto FC - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
LA Galaxy (+135) vs. Sporting KC - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)

Week 1 Preview

With this year's draft taking place three full weeks before Week 1, lots has changed since we were north of the border. Barnard's team re-defined rock bottom, the running game in Houston and Kansas City are in complete flux, and we have the first blockbuster trade of the season!

Trade Grade 2

Marco receives Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary, and Julian Edelman

AGD receives DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk

Marco went from a hopeless backfield without any clear starters, to one of the more intriguing RB situations in the league. No clear studs but a lot of potential hits if things break right. The price was extremely high though, as he got rid of one of the safest assets in the league in Hopkins. I would probably have waited a week or two to see how things shake out before getting rid of a stud like Nuk, but a trade was likely imminent either way. On the AGD side, they went all in on their starting lineup at the expense of any and all depth. Their full-strength lineup rivals Billy's as the best in the league, but the odds of them all panning out are not high, and makes the Baker/Watson duo even more confusing. I still like the team who got the clear best player more, especially with the nonzero chance that Kirk outscores Edelman.

Marco Grade: C+

AGD Grade: B

Not a lot of insight I can provide on the league as a whole, but I will be switching up the format this year. More to come next week. But one thing isn't changing, and that's the return of #KumpfKurse!

Matchup of the Week - Nick vs. Ajay

Nick's first game back is a divisional matchup with both teams projected in the high 90s, what more can you ask for in Week 1? This matchup is an immediate referendum on RB vs. WR as a team-building process. Nick's backfield duo is second to Billy's at worst when healthy, and they figure to hit the ground running against each other's solid but not spectacular defenses. Ajay's WRs have high ceilings, but are also in unfamiliar offenses that could easily spread the ball out. I don't like the flex situation for either team, and having the QBs get last licks is fun, but I think the RBs (plus the Ravens D feasting on the Fins) welcome Nick back with a W.

Pick: Nick

2018 Matchup of the Week Record: 18-9

I'll end this with my NFL Win Total Bets, which always get ridicule but have averaged almost 65% the last four years:
Atlanta under 9
Buffalo over 6.5
Chicago under 9
Cincinnati over 6
Detroit over 6.5
Green Bay under 9.5
Indianapolis over 6.5
New York Giants over 6
Philadelphia over 9.5
San Francisco under 8
Washington under 6.5

I also bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +1400 and will also be betting the Pats (+700) to win the Super Bowl from now until Brady retires.

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Titans (+6) at Browns - Win
Eagles (-10) vs. Redskins - Loss
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Colts - Loss
Cowboys (-7) vs. Giants - Win
Raiders (+1) vs. Broncos - Win
2019 Record: 3-2 (+0.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Boise State (-12.5) vs. Marshall - Loss
Vanderbilt (+7) at Purdue - Loss
West Virginia (+14) at Missouri - Loss
Texas A&M (+17) at Clemson - Win
Central Florida (-10) at Florida Atlantic - Win
Mississippi (-6) vs. Arkansas - Win
Auburn (-17) vs. Tulane - Win
Washington (-14) vs. California - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019 Record: 5-6 (-1.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

After August, my MLB Win Total Bets are on pace to go 8-3, though none have been decided already.

EPL Spread Bets

Last Week: 0-2-2
2019-20 Record: 7-7-4 (-1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 4-3 (-0.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 2-1-2
2019 Record: 11-12-5 (-3.01 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+0.60 units)