Week 7 Recap

We're at a bit of a crossroads for the 2019 season, as more than half of the regular season is complete, but we still have three weeks until the trade deadline. Given that position in the schedule, I think it makes sense to take another look at each of the playoff races, followed by a quick hit power ranking:

Weissbard Division Champ
AGD has a one game lead here for the division, bye, and best regular season record, and they're (spoiler alert) at the top of the Power Rankings yet again. They have a relatively difficult remaining schedule (already having played Z and Ajay) which includes pivotal head to heads with Gutman and Barnard. I assume one or both of these will be Matchups of the Week, and a sweep for AGD will all but guarantee a division title. If Gutman and/or Barnard pull the upset, then we have ourselves a race.
Prediction: AGD

Levine Division Champ
Despite the superior records on top of the Weissbard division, this is best and most competitive division. Alan has a one game lead right now, but he has already played Z and Ajay and ends the season with Billy and Levine back to back. Billy, Levine, and I all have stronger rosters and slightly easier schedules, so odds are that at least one of us passes Alan. My best guess is that one of these teams goes 8-5, while the other three go 7-6. I know I'll get shit for this, but given my roster and with Z and Ajay (and Barnard) still on my schedule. I think I have the best odds.
Prediction: Kumpf

Zacherman Division Champ
This is the Junior Varsity division, but it still has three teams vying for a potentially below .500 division title. Esco has the easiest remaining schedule, and a more consistent team than Nick so I'm giving him a slight edge as things stand now. However, I strongly believe that these three teams have some moves up their sleeves. Nick is getting Brees back and has been shopping CMC, while Esco has clear upgrade opportunities, and Marco makes trades because he's bored. This has the potential to get really fun, or stay sad.
Prediction: Esco

Wild Cards
These two spots are realistically only possible for the teams that don't win the Weissbard or Levine divisions. It's tough to pick between them right now, as I would give the team quality advantage to Billy and Levine, but Gutman and Barnard have a one game lead on them. I'll split the baby here and pick one team from each.
Predictions: Gutman and Levine

NiJo Spot
Record and schedule don't matter here, so points already scored is the easiest way to look at this one. Alan currently has a lead of 11.4 over Nick, 30.1 over Barnard, and 65 over everyone else, with Billy and Weissbard as the teams most likely to make up ground. In general I think Billy's team is the strongest of this group, but Alan's current lead is a little bit too large for me to predict a collapse there.
Prediction: Alan

Current Projection:
1. AGD (Bye)
2. Kumpf (Bye)
3. Gutman
4. Levine
5. Esco
6. Alan


Week 8 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)

3. Billy (Last Week: 4)

4. Levine (Last Week: 5)

5. Gutman (Last Week: 3)

6. Esco (Last Week: 8)

7. Nick (Last Week: 7)

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 10)

9. Marco (Last Week: 6)

10. Alan (Last Week: 9)

11. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)

12. Bennett (Last Week: 11)

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)



Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Gutman
With a win here, AGD should clinch the division and can set up their roster for Weeks 15 and 16. But a Gutman win puts everything into limbo, so is chaos on the table? The short answer is no, primarily due to Gut losing Dak and Amari to byes. With his studs out, Gutman is leaning heavily on the Saints, and while the matchup is nice, it doesn't come close to what AGD is facing. Houston gets the Raiders and Jacksonville gets the Jets, so I can see the Watson/Hopkins/Lenny/Leveon/Jags D quintet outscoring Gutman's entire roster. Feel really confident about breaking the #Kurse here.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 2-5


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/21

NFL Bets
Saints (-10) vs. Cardinals - Win
Jaguars (-6) vs. Jets - Win
Eagles (+3) at Bills - Win
Bucs (+3) at Titans - Loss
Last Week: 5-1
2019 Record: 24-17 (+3.72 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Colorado (+14) vs. USC - Win
Wisconsin (+14.5) at Ohio State - Loss
Miami (+6) at Pittsburgh - Win
Kansas State (+24) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Indiana (+3) at Nebraska - Win
Maryland (+17) at Minnesota - Loss
Oklahoma State (+10.5) at Iowa State - Win
Syracuse (+10) at Florida State - Loss
Texas Tech (-4) at Kansas - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019 Record: 32-31-1 (-3.09 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Southampton (+0.5) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Bournemouth (+0.5) at Watford - Win
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Wolves - Push
Crystal Palace (+1) at Arsenal - Win
Last Week: 1-0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-12-10 (+1.46 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-6 (+0.34 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Atalanta (+2) at Manchester City - Loss
Real Madrid (-1) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) vs. Bayern Munich - Win
RB Salzburg (Pick) vs. Napoli - Loss
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 4-6-4 (-2.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Lyon (+230) at Benfica - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets
Nationals (+170) at Astros - Win
Nationals (+120) vs. Astros - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 77-77 (-5.55 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

NBA Bets
Clippers (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Hornets (+3.5) vs. Bulls - Win
Suns (+1.5) vs. Kings - Win
Rockets (-1.5) vs. Bucks - Loss
Warriors (+1.5) vs. Clippers - Loss
Grizzlies (+2) vs. Bulls - Loss
Hawks (+2.5) vs. Magic - Win
2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 14-12-5 (-0.50 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
NYCFC (-105) vs. Toronto FC - Loss
Atlanta (-140) vs. Philadelphia - Win
LAFC (-230) vs. LA Galaxy - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 9-9 (+0.25 units)