Stevens Bowl Results/Offseason Preview

First off, congrats to Levine on a much-deserved first chef's coat. He's had a record over .500 every year other than his first, and using my PAA metric he's the clear cut #1 best owner since 2012. In fact, PAA correctly predicted the top 3 finishers (albeit flipping Esco and Marco), as well as 4/6 playoff teams using only current FALAFEL teams. As far as I'm concerned, it should be used as the foundation of the division draft next year.

For the offseason, we will conduct Winter Meetings via email starting in mid-January unless there's a time when more than half the league can get together, which I'm doubting. I'll start a thread next week to start gathering topics.

I'll also be continuing Gambling Corner on this blog, but I won't spam the listserve for those non-degenerates. For those interested, you can just check the blog every Friday, or Follow it using your Google account. I'll include my bets for the rest of the football season, as well as some soccer and basketball picks, and any futures bets I make. I might also expand to other gambling topics if people are interested, but I also might get lazy.

Finally, my weekly #KumpfKurse picks finished at 13-6, and would have ended on an 11-game winning streak if I had simply not made a pick for the Rogers Bowl.


Gambling Corner

NFL Week 17 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 109th out of 19,826: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Eagles (+3) vs. Cowboys
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bills
Cardinals (+10) at Seahawks
Panthers (+4) at Falcons
Last Week: 3-2
2017 Record: 42-28-1

For NFL Win Totals, I'm currently 8-1 on the teams that are already decided, with while needing a Bears win to get them and a Lions loss to push that one.

NCAA Week 3 Bowl Bets
Wake Forest (-3) vs. Texas A&M
Arizona State (+7) vs. NC State
Northwestern (-8)  vs. Kentucky
Utah State (-4) vs. New Mexico State
Ohio State (-7) vs. USC
Mississippi State (+7) vs. Louisville
Iowa State (+4) vs. Memphis
Washington (+3) vs. Penn State
Wisconsin (-4) vs. Miami
South Carolina (+8) vs. Michigan
Central Florida (+10) vs. Auburn
Notre Dame (+3) vs. LSU
Oklahoma (+2) vs. Georgia
Clemson (+3) vs. Alabama
Last Week: 11-7
2017 Record: 43-34-7

Stevens Bowl IX Preview

Every fantasy season is a bit like The Butterfly Effect, in that small moments can have an out-sized impact on the final result. Take this play from Week 7. If you showed that to a bunch of football fans at a sports bar and asked who deserves the fumble, the vast majority would say Curtis Samuel. But the fumble was given to Cam, along with the -2 points, which ended up costing me a victory against Bennett. That potential/deserved win cost me a bye, and if I had the bye, I would have beaten the Esco/Marco winner last week, and would be heading towards my first Stevens Bowl. Levine would likely destroy me once I got there, but being that close to a chance at a chef's coat is enough to make me seriously consider my future in this league. So I guess I really am the FALAFEL Marvin Lewis.

Anyway, on to what actually matters...

LEVINE! ESCO! GORDON! BURTON! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL!


The Stevens Bowl: 3) Levine vs. 6) Esco

Quarterback
Russ finally had a rough game, but it didn't end up mattering as the rest of Levine's team broke 120 on their own. I don't see that happening two games in a row, especially against a team without a pass rush in JerryWorld. On Esco's side, he has his usual Keenum vs. Matty Ice decision. Both passers are on the road, and while Keenum has the better matchup, the Frozen Tundra might come into play and make it difficult to pass. I'd probably go Keenum unless precipitation is in the forecast, but either way it shouldn't matter.
Edge: Levine

Runningback
Freeman carried Esco to the promise land, and I like him to show up against the Saints as well, even if Coleman returns. Outside of that, I'm done trusting Lamar Miller and the Duke/Rod combo is a lottery ticket. If they were going up against Latavius Murray, Mike Davis and Kerwynn Williams, I'd give Esco the edge. But unfortunately those are Levine's backup RBs. No one's touching the Kareem/Ingram combo.
Big Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
Last week, Esco had the bold strategy of only carrying two receivers. They didn't impress, but did just enough for the win. He'll roll them back this week, to which Levine's Avengers say, "That's cool. Watch this."
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
Going into last week, the one minor blemish on Levine's roster was TE, where the Greg Olsen stash had yet to pay off. That all changed with his big day against Green Bay, and now there's really no one Esco can run out that would flip this position, even Trey Fucking Burton.
Big Edge: Levine

D/ST
The Chargers fell apart last week, and nearly cost Esco in the process, but they get the Bryce Petty Experience this week. As for Levine, Carolina's D has been legit all year and gets a turnover-prone Jameis team. That's not bad, but it's not Bryce.
Edge: Esco

Overall
In some years, the Stevens Bowl is a toss up and we have hotly a contested battle for the chef's coat. This is not one of those years.
Pick: Levine

On a lesser note, I'm taking Zacherman in the Rogers Bowl, giving him back-to-back third place finishes.

Matchup Predictions: 12-5 (10 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 16 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 125th out of 19,668: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (+9) vs. Vikings
Saints (-5) vs. Falcons
Redskins (-3) vs. Broncos
Jaguars (-4) at 49ers
Cardinals (-3) vs. Giants
Last Week: 2-1-1
2017 Record: 39-26-1

NCAA Week 2 Bowl Bets
Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
Ohio (-7) vs. UAB

Wyoming (-1 ) vs. Central Michigan
Texas Tech (+3) vs. South Florida
Army (+7) vs. San Diego State
Appalachian State (+8) vs. Toledo
Fresno State (+3) vs. Houston
West Virginia (+7) vs. Utah
Northern Illinois (+5) vs. Duke
UCLA (+3) vs. Kansas State
Southern Miss (+16) vs. Florida State
Texas (+3) vs. Missouri
Iowa (-3) vs. Boston College
Purdue (+4) vs. Arizona
Virginia (+1) vs. Navy
Virginia Tech (+4) vs. Oklahoma State
Stanford (+3) vs. TCU
Michigan State (+2) vs. Washington State
Last Week: 3-4-1
2017 Record: 32-27-7

Semifinal Preview

Without doing any research, I can confidently say that this was the closest playoff round in FALAFEL history. It had unlikely success stories (Trey Fucking Burton), massive disappointments (Mike Evans/Emmanuel Sanders), along with some expected performances (my continued Marvin Lewis impersonation, Levine's "better late than never" domination). We're now at the final four, and it includes the four strongest teams based on points scored. There will be no asterisk on this chef's coat/hat.

Matchup 1: 1) Zacherman vs. 4) Levine

Quarterback
On paper, Russ vs. Brees is a battle of heavyweights, but this has been an interesting year for both. Russ has no offensive line or running game, and has somehow translated that into being a world destroyer as the #1 overall QB. Brees finally has a defense and running game, and has quietly turned into Alex Smith. Both are facing schizophrenic defenses in the Rams and Jets, but I'd be dumb to go against Russ at this point.
Edge: Levine

Runningback
The breakdown of points between Brees, Ingram and Kamara will determine the outcome of this matchup. Kamara has been the most dynamic player in fantasy this year, and when he catches a TD,  Zacherman gets 15 points. However, he's coming off a concussion and facing a Jets team that won't be competitive after the first quarter, so this sounds like an Ingram game to me. McKinnon has the potential to keep it close with a nice matchup, but Levine can counter that with Kareem Hunt. A week from now, Zeke changes the conversation, but Z has to make it there first.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
A.J. Green is a great player. But he's facing a shutdown corner against the Vikings, and Zacherman is flanking him with a pupu platter of barely startable WR3s. On the other side, Levine has the literal fucking Avengers in Nuk, Keenan and Flash.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
After my Trey Burton nightmare last week, I'm about ready to send the Tight End position the way of the Kicker. But while we still start these random assholes, there is still a clear top tier and Gronk is part of it when he's healthy and not suspended. Doesn't matter who Levine starts here, though an Olsen resurgence would only add fuel to his unstoppable machine.
Big Edge: Zacherman

D/ST
Neither team is dominant here, so the performance will likely depends on which offense is more pathetic, the Jets or the Cards. Not a huge edge here, but I'm not one to bet against Bryce Petty's awfulness.
Slight Edge: Levine

Overall
Zacherman's insane run of weekly top scores this year was truly impressive. Even after losing Zeke, he was not only competitive, but often dominant. But the danger of bidding on Zeke during the draft was that you were only guaranteed to have him for 6 games, barring a deep playoff run. Zacherman made the playoff run, but it's going to end one week before Zeke can save him.
Pick: Levine


Matchup 2: 2) Marco vs. 6) Esco AKA The Battles of Casas Grandes Dos

Quarterback
Both owners here have tough decisions. Marco's Mariota has a much better matchup, but his inconsistency is terrifying. Meanwhile, Alex Smith seems likely to check down constantly against the Charger pass rush. On Esco's side, Matty Ice nearly cost him the win last week, but gets a nice Bucs matchup this week, on MNF no less. Keenum is also set up for success, but I don't know if I would want "Starting Case Keenum kept me out of the Stevens Bowl" to be on the table.
Edge: Esco

Runningback
Lots of interesting situations here, none of which seems to benefit Marco. If Coleman is truly concussed, Marco only has one legitimate RB, albeit one who turns into a god in the snow. Esco looks primed to benefit, with Freeman (on MNF) getting more carries, Lamar Miller potentially rebounding against the mediocre Jags run defense, and the immortal Rod Smith getting to feast on Oakland.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
If Marco is going to win, it's going to be here. Esco's group is fine, with Reek and Tate doing just enough each week to keep him in contention. But Marco has a trio of studs who are capable of putting up 60 on their own.
Edge: Marco

Tight End
With Zach Ertz cleared of concussion protocol, the Trey Fucking Burton experience looks set to end after one week (and continues the tradition of a player having the best game of their career when facing me in the playoffs). That leaves Esco scrambling, and opens up the delicious possibility of Marcedes "Chicken Wing" Lewis starting in a FALAFEL playoff matchup in 2017. Against all odds, Marco has an advantage in Jason Witten, albeit a small one.
Slight Edge: Marco

D/ST
Similar to the TE matchup, there's not a lot to love here. I assume there still might be moves made, but as it stands I can't pick a winner among the mediocrity.
Edge: Even

Overall
This is a tough one. Marco turned the blacked out roster that he drafted into a serious contender (with a huge assist from Gutman), but the Coleman injury is a huge issue, especially given that the game is on Monday (the fact that Esco didn't previously add Terron Ward is potentially a huge mistake). I think that even if he's active, Atlanta limits Coleman's touches, with Freeman benefiting. And that edge is enough to stick with Esco for one more week.
Pick: Esco

Matchup Predictions: 10-5 (8 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 15 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 110th out of 19,336: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Colts (+3) vs. Broncos
Chiefs (+2) vs. Chargers
Ravens (-7) at Browns
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 37-25

NCAA Week 1 Bowl Bets
North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Grambling State
North Texas (+7) vs. Troy
Georgia State (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
Boise State (+8) vs. Oregon
Marshall (+6) vs. Colorado State
Arkansas State (-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
Akron (+23) vs. Florida International
SMU (-5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
Ohio (-7) vs. UAB
Wyoming (-1 ) vs. Central Michigan
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6

Quarterfinal Preview

The playoffs are finally here, and we have three repeat teams in Zacherman, Levine and myself. Z gets the week off along with Marco, so here are the usual Dr. Z breakdowns of the quarterfinal matchups.

Matchup 1: 3) Kumpf vs. 6) Esco

Quarterback
The QBs in this matchup are facing off this week in what could easily be a low-scoring slugfest. I still have trouble believing that Case Keenum is an above average NFL (or fantasy) starter, but I also hate having to trust Cam every week when half the time it looks like he forgot how to throw. Our IR battle of Watson vs. Rodgers would be much more entertaining, but we're stuck with what we got (Until potentially next week for me. Be very afraid Marco.)
Slight Edge: Kumpf

Runningback
Both teams have an extremely deep stable of RBs, but mine are currently pretty banged up. Esco would always have the higher ceiling with Freeman (who has the potential to get him out to a 20 point lead on TNF), but the floor of my group is pretty high as well. Lamar Miller could be the X-factor here, as he gets a juicy matchup with the Niners, but my Pats RB duo gets last licks against a terrible Miami team. Esco needs this one more than I do.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
This is where the matchup is likely to be decided. Esco's duo either has a very high ceiling (Reek) or his success comes at the expense of one of my guys (Tate), and on top of that, they both have great matchups. My matchups aren't too bad either, but I've been terrible at making my flex decision all year. I'm going to assume that Reek doesn't go off again, but I don't get any huge weeks either, and hedge my bets.
Edge: Even

Tight End
What a cluster. Last week, the Raiders were without Crabtree and Cooper, yet Jared Cook only put up one catch for nine yards, giving him 4 combined receptions in the last three weeks. I'm going back to the well one more time, but I have absolutely no faith in breaking 5 points. Esco's Tyler Kroft/Chicken Wing duo maxes out at about 40 yards, so they're entirely TD-dependent.
Edge: Even

D/ST
My best player, the Jags D, gets to go up against a Seattle O-Line that has no prayer of keeping Russ on his feet. Seattle should put up points, and likely won't have multiple turnovers, limiting the ceiling here, but Sacksonville is guaranteed double digits based on QB takedowns alone. Esco gets to choose between the Chargers and Panthers (who are going up against his QB). Neither option is terrible, but neither option is likely to keep up with the Jags.
Edge: Kumpf

Overall
This is gonna be close. Esco has a much higher ceiling, breaking 100 four times and breaking 90 five more times. However, he also has three weeks under 90 and one under 60, giving him the lower floor. My team has been the definition of consistency, scoring between 87-93 six times, while breaking 100 four other times and only falling below 83 once. But in the playoffs experience matters. I'm 0-2 career, making me the Marvin Lewis of FALAFEL, while Esco has a chef's coat in his past. I'm going with history.
Pick: Esco


Matchup 2: 4) Levine vs. 5) Bennett

Quarterback
This is the key position in this matchup. Both Russ and Dak have had recent protection issues, but Russ is taking on the scary Jags D, while Dak gets a confusing Giants team. Both are on the road, which could lead to some weather issues for Dak in Jersey, potentially negating an easier matchup. This is gonna be close, but I'll lean towards Russ's talent even in a tougher matchup.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningback
Lots of talent for these two teams at RB. Levine has alternately had Hunt and Ingram as the best RBs in fantasy, while Bennett's group has been somewhat disappointing on a week-to-week basis. I have to give Levine the edge here based on prior performance, but I actually think Bennett can hold his own with his trio, especially if Ingram is limited.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
This is where we see some real separation. I don't think that DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen are the best receivers in the world, but their QBs certainly do (this could also apply to Josh Gordon), as they both rack up a shit ton of targets. Even if Mike Evans has one of his big games, this is a huge advantage for Levine.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
If Bennett has any prayer of making the Final Four, it has to come from Kelce. Last week was a dream situation, where two early TDs guaranteed a huge day. He scored earlier this year against Oakland, but was held in check outside of the TD, so Bennett has to hope to improve on that performance because he needs 20+. As for Levine, if Austin Hooper outscores Kelce then we should all give up because this year is over.
Big Edge: Bennett

D/ST
Both teams here are benching their usual D for a better Week 14 matchup. That process usually leads to a toss up, and that's what I'm thinking here. The Bears suck, but don't usually turn the ball over, limiting Levine's ceiling. The Cardinals have Blaine Gabbert, but Bennett's starting a Titans D that isn't very good. No use picking between subpar options.
Edge: Even

Overall
Is there a path to victory for Bennett here? The Dakstreet Boys could blow out the G-Men, while the Jags hold Seattle under 10 points. Marshawn and Kelce could trade TDs, while Kamara dominates the touches for the Saints. Even if those somewhat long-shots happen, I still see Levine dominating the WR battle and pulling out a win and a highly anticipated matchup with Z.
Pick: Levine

Matchup Predictions: 8-5 (6 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 14 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 112th out of 18,988: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Packers (-3) at Browns
Texans (-3) vs. 49ers
Panthers (+3) vs. Vikings
Cardinals (+3) vs. Titans
Eagles (+3) at Rams
Last Week: 2-2
2017 Record: 33-24

NCAA Bowl Bets
Coming next week.
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6