It's been four months since Belfer literally rode a topless Alan on the floor of our apartment in Savannah. Little did I know that it would be the highlight of my season. Belfer's too for that matter, as it always sucks to lose when you have the best team. But shit happens, especially in the playoffs, and here we are with a championship matchup of Esco vs. BAM.
Wait, that's not how we do things around here. It's motherfucking Stevens Bowl!
BILLY! ESCO! MARSHALL! DIKEMBE! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL V!
We have a few things going on this year. Billy going for his second Chef Coat. Esco looking to avenge a Stevens Bowl defeat last year. Marshall trying to be our fourth rookie champion in five years. Both of our multi-racial teams in the championship game. If this were the actual Super Bowl, I'm not sure which storyline ESPN would beat to death. So let's get to the preview:
Stevens Bowl Preview: Esco vs. BAM
Quarterbacks:
Based on the stats and the matchups, Esco has the edge here as Cam has put up yet another top-3 fantasy season. But as things usually go with Billy and Marshall, looks can be deceiving. In his road games this year, Russell Wilson has averaged 16.4 PPG. However when he plays in the madhouse in Seattle, that number jumps up to 19.8 PPG. In case you were wondering, Cam has average 19.2 PPG this year. I fully expect both of these guys to have huge games.
Edge: Even
Runningbacks:
Ordinarily, BAM has this part of the breakdown wrapped up. Shady has been RB2 on the season, with Skittles right behind him at 4. But Esco can throw up a pretty nice counterpunch here, with Forte (RB3) as well as the FJax/Mathews combo (RBs 12 and 14). It's hard relying on Mathews ever, and Jackson is constantly a threat to lose touches to Spiller or get hurt, but I'm not comfortable awarding a huge edge to BAM here. Make no mistake though, with Shady matched up against Chicago, this is position is not even.
Edge: BAM
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
At receiver, Esco has an astronomical edge, but there are some caveats. First, Esco needs to hope that Philly is trailing so that DeSean can steal some touches from Shady. Next, whatever happened with Demaryius last week cannot happen again. And finally, the Colston/James Jones combo for BAM is possibly as good as it's been all year. Colston has 17 receptions, 200+ yards and 3 TDs in his last two games, and Jones will likely be getting Rodgers back. I ordinarily hate BAM starting Brandon LaFell, but there is always the chance that he counteracts some of Cam's points, a fine bit of gamesmanship in any matchup, let alone the Stevens Bowl.
As for TE, this is where it gets interesting. Esco's decision between Pitta and Cameron notwithstanding, BAM has Vernon Davis going as the last player on either side. We saw both the Buttholes and Weissbard fall short with the last player left last week, but it certainly makes things interesting. I'm not sure how big a lead Esco would need to have going into MNF to feel comfortable, but I guarantee it's more than 25.
Edge: Esco
Defense:
Neither team here is playing a stud defense. Esco is starting San Diego over his typical Arizona D, but I agree with the move, as if Seattle destroys AZ at home (which I think they will), then not only will Wilson and Skittles put up good numbers, but the Cards D will also suffer. I like the SD matchup with Oakland, but the Chargers have a unique ability to suck at the worst possible times. As for BAM, they're starting the Bills D against a Miami team that just upset the Pats. And I love it. This is the type of game that Miami is destined to blow, and Tannehill has all the makings of a 4 turnover game in cold weather. I don't think the defenses swing this matchup one way or the other, and that's a good thing.
Edge: Even
Discussion:
I've gone 1-3 in playoff predictions this year, so this whole thing may be a giant waste of time, other than giving Gutman something to read while he's trying to poop as quickly as possible. The matchup will determined on SNF, with Shady going up against Forte/DeSean. Even if Esco comes out of that game with a decent lead, the Falcons have been miserable at stopping anyone this year, so I think Vernon gives BAM the win. And in case you were wondering, yes, I'm picking them solely so we can see this with the Chef Coat at the draft next year.
Verdict: BAM in a close one.
It's also worth noting that the Wessibard/Buttholes matchup will determine who the final Division Captain is this year, so that game does have some value. As you might imagine, I'm picking the Buttholes in a blowout.
I'm en route to Jersey as we speak, so maybe I'll see some of you over the next couple weeks. Or maybe not. Either way...
BILLY! ESCO! MARSHALL! DIKEMBE! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL V!
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Thursday, December 12, 2013
Semi-Final Preview
Considering I was 0 for 2 last week in my haphazard picks, it's time to examine things a little more closely this week. But before I do that, we need to say goodbye to two of our luckiest playoff teams in recent memory.
Barnard - It's fitting that the first time all year that your team looked somewhat acceptable, your season immediately ends. Over the course of the season, you amassed exactly one no-doubt starter, and while Calvin is truly transcendent, he needs a supporting cast. Obviously S-Jax was injured, as were all of Brady's weapons, but I have a hard time remembering how you spent $200 on this roster. Next year you need to just watch a couple SportsCenters and remember that there are more teams in the league than the one who gets absurd game-changing PI calls in their favor every week.
Donny - Your matchup vs. Weiss was all about consistency vs. boom/bust. The good news was that you put up nearly your highest point total of the season, despite getting jack shit from 3 of your starters and your DST. The bad news is that Weiss had one of his good weeks, and in his good weeks, he's nearly unbeatable. Regardless, you had a nice bounce-back year and got me to change the way I spell your name.
Semi-Final Preview
Matchup 1: Buttholes vs. BAM
Quarterbacks:
This was supposed to be the week that the Josh Gordon trade paid off for the Buttholes. Instead, they have to trot out Kaepernick, who has looked good as of late. Unfortunately, he's going up against the player whom he will be compared against for the rest of his career. And even more unfortunately, that player gets to feast on the G-Men.
Edge: BAM
Runningbacks:
If Peterson plays, this becomes a discussion, but right now that's looking unlikely. BAM drafted their duo and didn't trade them for WR help, for better or worse. It was for better last week, and looks to be so again this week.
Edge: BAM
Wide Receivers/TE:
The Buttholes obviously own the receiver part of this position grouping, but BAM makes up at least a little ground in the TE world. Maybe the biggest thing that VD offers BAM is the ability to counteract some of Kaepernick's points. Other than that, it's all Butthole.
Big Edge: Buttholes
Defense:
As is stands right now, the two defenses are the Packers and the Bills, who have each let up 61 points in their last two games. Buffalo does get Jacksonville this week, but that doesn't mean what it did two months ago. I've already discussed this enough.
Slight Edge: BAM
Discussion:
Surprisingly, BAM owns the positional edge in three of the four categories. But it's that other category that will determine this matchup. I can see BAM holding a 10 point edge heading into SNF, but that's where the receiver edge truly takes hold, and I expect AJ Green to lead the Buttholes to a come-from-behind victory, and there's nothing Reap and Belfer like more than coming from behind with each other.
Verdict: Buttholes by less than 10.
Matchup 2: Esco vs. Weissbard
Quarterbacks:
I got no beef with Cam, but on Sunday Peyton's gonna cut that meat.
Edge: Weissbard
Runningbacks:
I'd put Forte and Murray pretty even for this week, and I might even rank Murray slightly higher given his recent explosions. However outside of that it's Fred Jackson and Ryan Mathews vs. Pierre Thomas. Even Weissbard would make that trade.
Edge: Esco
Wide Receivers/TE:
My only question here is how this even happened to Weissbard's receiving corps? Just no one that I would be remotely comfortable relying on in the FALAFEL Semi-Finals. I'd call the TE matchup even, but it likely won't matter.
Huge Edge: Esco
Defense:
These two defenses are surprisingly two of the best in the league, both reality and fantasy. The Chiefs remind me a lot of the Bears D last year, where they made a good Joseph team look great, but instead they're making a terrible Wessibard team look decent. If I remember correctly, the Bears failed Nick in the playoffs last year, and I have a feeling the Chiefs let you down this week, after putting up 25 last week. But that doesn't mean you don't still have the edge here over a Honey Badger-less Cards D.
Edge: Weissbard
Discussion:
We'll obviously know a lot more about this matchup after the TNF matchup. If Manning throws 4 TDs, with none to Demaryius, then I think Weiss can make a game of it. But with Welker out, I don't think that happens. Weiss gets the last player in the matchup though, so he'll be rooting for a big day from Emmanuel Sanders. Doesn't that sentence make my decision for me?
Verdict: Esco in a blowout.
Next week: the 5th Annual Stevens Bowl Preview!
Barnard - It's fitting that the first time all year that your team looked somewhat acceptable, your season immediately ends. Over the course of the season, you amassed exactly one no-doubt starter, and while Calvin is truly transcendent, he needs a supporting cast. Obviously S-Jax was injured, as were all of Brady's weapons, but I have a hard time remembering how you spent $200 on this roster. Next year you need to just watch a couple SportsCenters and remember that there are more teams in the league than the one who gets absurd game-changing PI calls in their favor every week.
Donny - Your matchup vs. Weiss was all about consistency vs. boom/bust. The good news was that you put up nearly your highest point total of the season, despite getting jack shit from 3 of your starters and your DST. The bad news is that Weiss had one of his good weeks, and in his good weeks, he's nearly unbeatable. Regardless, you had a nice bounce-back year and got me to change the way I spell your name.
Semi-Final Preview
Matchup 1: Buttholes vs. BAM
Quarterbacks:
This was supposed to be the week that the Josh Gordon trade paid off for the Buttholes. Instead, they have to trot out Kaepernick, who has looked good as of late. Unfortunately, he's going up against the player whom he will be compared against for the rest of his career. And even more unfortunately, that player gets to feast on the G-Men.
Edge: BAM
Runningbacks:
If Peterson plays, this becomes a discussion, but right now that's looking unlikely. BAM drafted their duo and didn't trade them for WR help, for better or worse. It was for better last week, and looks to be so again this week.
Edge: BAM
Wide Receivers/TE:
The Buttholes obviously own the receiver part of this position grouping, but BAM makes up at least a little ground in the TE world. Maybe the biggest thing that VD offers BAM is the ability to counteract some of Kaepernick's points. Other than that, it's all Butthole.
Big Edge: Buttholes
Defense:
As is stands right now, the two defenses are the Packers and the Bills, who have each let up 61 points in their last two games. Buffalo does get Jacksonville this week, but that doesn't mean what it did two months ago. I've already discussed this enough.
Slight Edge: BAM
Discussion:
Surprisingly, BAM owns the positional edge in three of the four categories. But it's that other category that will determine this matchup. I can see BAM holding a 10 point edge heading into SNF, but that's where the receiver edge truly takes hold, and I expect AJ Green to lead the Buttholes to a come-from-behind victory, and there's nothing Reap and Belfer like more than coming from behind with each other.
Verdict: Buttholes by less than 10.
Matchup 2: Esco vs. Weissbard
Quarterbacks:
I got no beef with Cam, but on Sunday Peyton's gonna cut that meat.
Edge: Weissbard
Runningbacks:
I'd put Forte and Murray pretty even for this week, and I might even rank Murray slightly higher given his recent explosions. However outside of that it's Fred Jackson and Ryan Mathews vs. Pierre Thomas. Even Weissbard would make that trade.
Edge: Esco
Wide Receivers/TE:
My only question here is how this even happened to Weissbard's receiving corps? Just no one that I would be remotely comfortable relying on in the FALAFEL Semi-Finals. I'd call the TE matchup even, but it likely won't matter.
Huge Edge: Esco
Defense:
These two defenses are surprisingly two of the best in the league, both reality and fantasy. The Chiefs remind me a lot of the Bears D last year, where they made a good Joseph team look great, but instead they're making a terrible Wessibard team look decent. If I remember correctly, the Bears failed Nick in the playoffs last year, and I have a feeling the Chiefs let you down this week, after putting up 25 last week. But that doesn't mean you don't still have the edge here over a Honey Badger-less Cards D.
Edge: Weissbard
Discussion:
We'll obviously know a lot more about this matchup after the TNF matchup. If Manning throws 4 TDs, with none to Demaryius, then I think Weiss can make a game of it. But with Welker out, I don't think that happens. Weiss gets the last player in the matchup though, so he'll be rooting for a big day from Emmanuel Sanders. Doesn't that sentence make my decision for me?
Verdict: Esco in a blowout.
Next week: the 5th Annual Stevens Bowl Preview!
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Week 13 CPP Rankings & Quarterfinal Preview
Typically in this space, I hand out the few remaining Consolation Prizes, unveil the final CPP Rankings, and give a preview of the first round of the playoffs. But due to the 7 teams that were eliminated last week, I just can't think of that many even marginally amusing prizes, so we're going to skip the Consolation Prizes.
Well except for one...
Kimmel - After starting the season with 6 straight losses, it appeared that you were doomed to follow your namesake down the road of disaster. But through shrewd trading (read: Trading with Weissbard) and patience, you came within a few points of making the playoffs. Congrats on a nice, if ill-fated comeback, and for that your Consolation Prize is to regain your name. We've all spent this entire season calling you Kimmel, and every time I do these rankings, I picture the actual Kimmel, but that is no more. I wouldn't blame you for keeping the team name, as that's a nice homage to our balding former league-member, but I will now be calling you Levine.
Final 2013 CPP Rankings:
1. Esco - CPP: 366.94, Last Week: 1st
2. Buttholes - CPP: 322.45, Last Week: 2nd
3. Levine - CPP: 301.53, Last Week: 3rd
4. Weissbard - CPP: 294.10, Last Week: 5th
5. Joseph - CPP: 293.12, Last Week: 6th
6. Gutman - CPP: 277.63, Last Week: 4th
7. Ajay - CPP: 269.98, Last Week: 11th
8. Kumpf - CPP: 269.84, Last Week: 7th
9. Bennett - CPP: 261.69, Last Week: 12th
10. Zacherman - CPP: 253.00, Last Week: 8th
11. Donny - CPP: 251.07, Last Week: 10th
12. BAM - CPP: 248.07, Last Week: 9th
13. Barnard - CPP: 240.70, Last Week: 13th
And the James Barnard Memorial Last Place CPP Award goes to...
14. Alan - CPP: 220.87, Last Week: 14th
Alan's FALAFEL season low of 45.9 helped him clinch an award that went to Billy last year, Bennett in 2011, Long in 2010 and Barnard himself in our inaugural 2009 season.
Quarterfinal Preview
Matchup 1: Donny vs. Weissbard
This one is ugly. With starters like Matt Ryan, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, Rueben Randle, Brain Hartline and Emmanuel Sanders, this matchup just screams of mediocrity. ESPN is shockingly favoring Donny by more than 16 points, and I guess I see why. He's got plus-matchups outside of his RBs, but mostly, Weissbard's team just isn't very good. I might go a little more in depth with other matchups, but this one really isn't worth my time.
Verdict: Donny by 20+
Matchup 2: Barnard vs. BAM
Jesus, this isn't much better. There is more overall talent, but neither of these teams are really a threat to win the Chef's coat, which obviously means that we have only 2 good teams in this league. It was a weird fantasy year, but the lack of even solid teams in this league is truly...well either amazing or embarrassing, I can't decide which.
As for this matchup, ESPN has Barnard as a 1-point favorite, and looking at BAM's receivers, I can't say I disagree. With Steven Jackson Steven seemingly finding his stride, and Calvin a sure bet for 200+ yards against the Philly secondary, I like his team more now than at any other point this year. I have a feeling that this will be a relatively low-scoring matchup, but it's hard to bet against Calvin right now...at least until next week.
Verdict: Barnard by 12
The real playoffs start next week.
Well except for one...
Kimmel - After starting the season with 6 straight losses, it appeared that you were doomed to follow your namesake down the road of disaster. But through shrewd trading (read: Trading with Weissbard) and patience, you came within a few points of making the playoffs. Congrats on a nice, if ill-fated comeback, and for that your Consolation Prize is to regain your name. We've all spent this entire season calling you Kimmel, and every time I do these rankings, I picture the actual Kimmel, but that is no more. I wouldn't blame you for keeping the team name, as that's a nice homage to our balding former league-member, but I will now be calling you Levine.
Final 2013 CPP Rankings:
1. Esco - CPP: 366.94, Last Week: 1st
2. Buttholes - CPP: 322.45, Last Week: 2nd
3. Levine - CPP: 301.53, Last Week: 3rd
4. Weissbard - CPP: 294.10, Last Week: 5th
5. Joseph - CPP: 293.12, Last Week: 6th
6. Gutman - CPP: 277.63, Last Week: 4th
7. Ajay - CPP: 269.98, Last Week: 11th
8. Kumpf - CPP: 269.84, Last Week: 7th
9. Bennett - CPP: 261.69, Last Week: 12th
10. Zacherman - CPP: 253.00, Last Week: 8th
11. Donny - CPP: 251.07, Last Week: 10th
12. BAM - CPP: 248.07, Last Week: 9th
13. Barnard - CPP: 240.70, Last Week: 13th
And the James Barnard Memorial Last Place CPP Award goes to...
14. Alan - CPP: 220.87, Last Week: 14th
Alan's FALAFEL season low of 45.9 helped him clinch an award that went to Billy last year, Bennett in 2011, Long in 2010 and Barnard himself in our inaugural 2009 season.
Quarterfinal Preview
Matchup 1: Donny vs. Weissbard
This one is ugly. With starters like Matt Ryan, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, Rueben Randle, Brain Hartline and Emmanuel Sanders, this matchup just screams of mediocrity. ESPN is shockingly favoring Donny by more than 16 points, and I guess I see why. He's got plus-matchups outside of his RBs, but mostly, Weissbard's team just isn't very good. I might go a little more in depth with other matchups, but this one really isn't worth my time.
Verdict: Donny by 20+
Matchup 2: Barnard vs. BAM
Jesus, this isn't much better. There is more overall talent, but neither of these teams are really a threat to win the Chef's coat, which obviously means that we have only 2 good teams in this league. It was a weird fantasy year, but the lack of even solid teams in this league is truly...well either amazing or embarrassing, I can't decide which.
As for this matchup, ESPN has Barnard as a 1-point favorite, and looking at BAM's receivers, I can't say I disagree. With Steven Jackson Steven seemingly finding his stride, and Calvin a sure bet for 200+ yards against the Philly secondary, I like his team more now than at any other point this year. I have a feeling that this will be a relatively low-scoring matchup, but it's hard to bet against Calvin right now...at least until next week.
Verdict: Barnard by 12
The real playoffs start next week.
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