Week 13 Playoff Picture

Esco did a thorough summary of where things stood last week, so I'll keep it rolling without the same level of detail.

If the playoffs started today...

1. Ajay (Bye) - Alan Division Champion, Best Regular Season Record
2. Zacherman (Bye) - Levine Division Champion
3. Billy - Bennett Division Champion
4. Bennett - Wild Card 1
5. Marco - Wild Card 2
6. Esco - NiJo Spot

Nothing really changed above in the last week, but there are a few specific spots that will be hotly contested over the next 10 days.

Best Regular Season Record
Ajay can clinch with one win OR one loss each from Z and Billy over the next two weeks. This one seems like a wrap.

Byes

Related, Ajay clinches a bye with one win OR one loss from EITHER Z OR Billy over the next two weeks. Not a lot of drama there.

The second bye will be extremely interesting. Z and Billy are the leaders in the clubhouse, but they trail both Bennett and Marco in total points by at least 40 points, so the door is open for a tight race for the always important bye. Without looking it up at all, Alan is the only non-bye team to win a Stevens Bowl in the last 8 years.

Wild Cards

The top 5 seeds are very likely to stay the same in some order, as they have at least a one game lead on the rest of the league, and they're also the top five scoring teams for tiebreak purposes. Esco and I are hanging around, and I get to feast on a bye-depleted Gutman team this week before facing a heinously mismanaged Barndogs in Rivalry Week 2, so 8-6 is somehow on the table for me. I would have to make up over 75 points to win a tiebreak with the non-Ajay top 5, so I would likely need either Bennett or Marco to lose out. Esco has a massive matchup with Marco this week, but if he survives that, his Rivalry Week 2 with a spoiler-happy Weissbard team could be a play-in game for Esco.

NiJo Spot

Esco is up 37 on me, 64 on Alan, and everyone else is at least 82 points back which eliminates them in my book. If one of the top 5 loses out and falls to this spot, they have an even bigger lead on the rest of the pack. So Gutman/Nick/Levine/AGD/Barnard/Weissbard, if I'm breaking the news to you, I'm sorry that you haven't been paying attention. Good luck going for weekly high score and Rivalry Week prizes.

The Funniest Outcome

There is somehow a snowball's chance in hell that Barnard qualifies for the playoffs by record. It would require the following results:

Week 13

Barnard beats AGD (improving Barnard to 7-6)

Kumpf beats Gutman (eliminating Gutman officially)

Weissbard beats Bennett (dropping Bennett to 7-6)

Marco beats Esco (eliminating Esco from qualifying based on record)

Week 14

Barnard beats Kumpf (improving Barnard to 8-6 and eliminating Kumpf from qualifying based on record)

Billy beats Bennett (dropping Bennett to 7-7)

Gutman technically has about the same chance to qualify via record with basically the same results, but that's not as funny. There's another version where Marco drops out instead of Bennett, but the tiebreaks get messier and also not as funny.

Regardless, the Ajay vs. Z and Esco vs. Marco matchups this week have massive reverberations across the bracket. The Alan vs. Nick matchup...not so much.

Trade Grade 16

Ajay receives Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nick receives James Conner and DK Metcalf

I have absolutely no data to back this up, but anecdotally it feels like DK has been the most traded player in league history. Weissbard, do your job as League Historian and look that up.

I'm sure a few of us in the league could sense Ajay getting desperate. Best record and a bye are clearly in play, but he somehow has more RBs than he can start, and has some big questions at WR. Holding on to his RB surplus was clearly an option, especially given the injury prone-ness of his guys specifically, but if he could upgrade at WR, a trade was probably the better option. For Nick, losing Aaron Jones meant the possibility of starting Jerick McKinnon, and while that would be an upgrade for Barnard and I, Nick decided that a more balanced lineup was worth sacrificing some of his WR upside. His receiving corps is still solid (though Chase obviously is downgraded now), but both teams seem better off than they were before the trade.

In terms of value, I think Ajay made out better, but I'm also assuming Conner either gets hurt or has more of a time share. If Conner plays the rest of the season and returns to his 2021 TD Monster ways, then it swings in Nick's direction.

Ajay Grade: A-
Nick Grade: B

That potentially concludes what was a busy trading season. Again, nothing to back this up, but of the 32 trade participants this season, I would bet that Ajay/Barnard/Marco/Weissbard make up more than half. That's 80% of FALAFEL Gamblers. Why won't anyone trade with me?

Playoff Picture 3 Weeks Out

(Editor's Note: This guest blog was submitted by Esco)

With the trade deadline fast approaching, let's take a look at who is still in the playoff picture 3 weeks out.

Playoff Locks

1. Ajay (9-2), 73 Pts behind most scored, 22 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

A stunning 9 game win streak puts Ajay in control of his own destiny for regular season championship. The final three games are not easy though with games again Alan and Nick fighting for their playoff lives and a huge Week 13 matchup with Z. Has only topped 100 points 5 times so has had a lot of luck with matchups but a win is a win is a win and the Ajay Ajays keep rolling so far.

2. Zacherman (8-3) 44 Pts behind most scored, 51 pts ahead of NiJo Rule

After making some trades for the future, Z has lost 3 out of the last four and finds himself in danger of losing the playoff bye if he doesn't rally the troops. Fortunately, outside of the Week 13 matchup with Ajay, he's got some bottom feeders in Barnard and AGD. Regardless of the outcome of the Ajay/Z matchup, if he can go 2-1 in the final 3 games he likely holds onto the bye

3. Marco (7-4) 1st in Points Scored, 96 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

Probably the most dominant team over the back half of the season. Has scored below 100 only twice, Week 1 and a 84.94 to 84.04 brutal loss to Ajay. Marco faces 3 potential playoffs teams (BMO, Esco, Gutman) but will certainly be favored in every matchup. Winning out likely gets him the bye due to the head to head matchup of the top 2 seeds in Week 13 and might even get him a regular season championship due to his points scored. Easily the most dangerous team to face the rest of the way

Likely In

4. Lutz (7-4) 81 Pts Behind Most Scored, 14 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

It used to be that having a baby mid-season was a guaranteed lock for the Stevens Bowl. Now with babies being born left and right, that barely guarantees a playoff berth. Next time try a chronic disease if you really want to improve your playoff chances Billy.

However, the schedule is very friendly to the new Lutz family, with Levine, Nick and BMO outstanding. 2 wins are likely and potentially winning out is on the table. I don't think it gets Billy to a playoff bye but he should be comfortable that even if he forgets to set his lineup once or twice in the post-baby chaos, he should be fine for the playoffs.

5. BMO (6-5) 24 pts behind most scored, 72 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

While the wins haven't always come for BMO, the scoring was hot and heavy early in the season to give them a cushion regardless of outcome for the last few weeks. Matchups with Marco and Billy are not ideal to end the season but if they can pull off a 2-1 record they likely move up in the seeds. Unfortunately 1-2 is more likely so they probably stay in the bottom half of the playoff bracket pending a true collapse.

On the Cusp

Esco (6-5) 96 pts behind most scored, NiJo Rule Spot

My team has bounced around the 6th seed the entire season and I likely have one more move to make to truly become a playoff contender. Will trading Ridley back to his rightful home on the Barndogs give me the karma I need to make the playoffs? Two critical matchups with Kumpf and Marco will likely decide my fate even before rivalry week against Weissbard. The Cowboys play the Commanders on Thanksgiving so that could put me in a huge hole going into the weekend, but if I maintain the points lead so it will be an interesting few weeks.

Kumpf (5-6) 58 Pts behind NiJo Rule

There has been no real consistency with Kumpf's team which isn't surprising when your team is essentially a single NFL team. He has a manageable schedule (Esco, Gutman, Barnard) but points will be more crucial than wins and the Cowboys schedule (Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles) isn't quite as friendly as it could be. As I mentioned just above, this week likely puts either me or Kumpf in the driver's seat for the 6 seed so let's check back in after Thanksgiving.

Hanging by a Thread: 3 teams are within 90 pts of Nijo Rule and also only 1 game out of playoff contention. A few high scoring weeks or winning out might get any of them in, but they all will need help to reach the playoffs

Alan (5-6) 76 Pts behind NiJo Rule

The championship hangover strikes again... Alan put up a dominant week to knock off Z but now faces the new #1 seed Ajay in a must win game. The final games (Nijo, Levine) are winnable but he needs to not only win but really run up the score to ensure himself a chance at a 4th Stevens Bowl win.

Nick (5-6) 85 pts behind NiJo Rule

As usual, Nick's team has faced unusually bad luck (3 loses by under 3 points) and has generally looked competitive all year. Unfortunately, the scheduling gods (aka the League Lobster AI chatbot) have dealt him a difficult hand to close out the year. Billy, Alan, Ajay is a very difficult stretch to win out so he needs to significantly outscore Esco, Kumpf and Alan over a 3 week timeframe which is no easy feat.

Gutman (5-6) 86 pts behind NiJo Rule

A disgusting loss to the Barndogs likely ends Gutman's shot at the playoffs unless he gets incredibly lucky these next few weeks. The schedule (AGD, Kumpf, Marco) has one head to head against a fellow playoff hopeful which might help if he wins out but I don't see a lot of scenarios where we are looking at a playoff contending team unless Gutman makes a few big trades to end the year.

Barndogs 

Barnard (5-6) 174 pts behind NiJo Rule

Barnard always seems to operate in his own universe and this year is no different. While only one game out of playoff contention, he is so far out of the points scored race that he basically needs to win out and hope the 5 teams ahead of him do not surpass 7 wins. Lol. I'm sure there is some parlay angle here that would pay out 30,000 to 1 if you could combine Ridley TD's with Barnard playoff success. He's got Zacherman, AGD, Kumpf the rest of the way so he could play a fun spoiler role if he actually could predict his highest scoring lineup but it's more likely we see another week where Barnard's bench outscores his starters than a playoff run for the Barndogs

Likely Out

I'm sure there is some scenario where AGD or Weissbard win out or Levine averages 175 points a week that would get them in but in nearly all scenarios I think these teams are sadly out of contention for additional Steven's Bowl victories. Better luck in 2024 boys

Trade Grade 15

Trade 15
Barnard receives Calvin Ridley and David Njoku
Esco receives Tyler Boyd and Dalton Schultz

I mean...wow. I thought nothing could beat Barnard's draft, where his lack of RBs led to him bidding on three different Dallas backup RBs, then trading for Zeke and Michael Thomas. But this Boyd/Ridley thing is truly unheard of.  (Not directly related, but I also just saw that Barnard bid $11, 37% of his remaining budget, for Jordan Love, unopposed, dropping his one handcuff. Just great work all around.)

For the trade itself, the question is: is Ridley a bigger upgrade over Boyd than Schultz is over Njewku? Honestly, I don't really care. Ridley was WR3-4 for Esco and Boyd is somehow WR2 for Barnard, so Esco gave up a bench player for a slight TE upgrade, while Barnard upgraded WR2 for a slight TE downgrade. This is not a clear win for either team, but I guess I give Barnard the edge there? 

However, I can't just ignore the last three months that led us to this point. Part of the reason I was so down on Boyd was his brutal schedule. Well, he got one of those games out of the way last night, and while losing Burrow will tank his value, that definitely hurts Barnard more than it does Boyd. Esco said that the funniest thing that could happen would be Ridley having a huge game this week, then getting hurt for the rest of the season. I disagree. The funniest thing would clearly be Ridley having a huge game this week, then it coming out that he bet the over on Boyd's receiving yards last night, parlayed with Burrow for MVP, and he gets suspended forever.

Barnard Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B-

Trade Grade 14

 And here...we...go!

Trade 14
Esco receives Trevor Lawrence, Gus Edwards, and Calvin Ridley
Marco receives Tua Tagovailoa, Antonio Gibson, and Brandin Cooks

My initial reaction when I saw this trade go through: Our first ever Real Mock Trade! I'm a genius!

My immediate follow-up reaction: Those fuckers! Now I have to give good grades or risk being a hypocrite. It's not lost on me that this exchange may have taken place:

Marco: It's about time Kumpf made a blog post. He's unemployed, what else could he be doing? 

Esco: Yeah, Kumpf is a weird guy. Always thinks he knows how to run everyone's team better than they do, he's not a genius. He has one Chef Coat in 13 years!

Marco: Yeah....Anyway, what do you think about the mock trade Kumpf gave us?

Esco: Ehhh...It doesn't move the needle for me a ton, but it's not bad.

Marco: Yeah but if we go through with it, Kumpf will have no choice but to give us both good grades.

Esco: Good point, that's worth it on its own. Kumpf loves giving unnecessarily bad trade grades. Except to Barnard, those are deserved.

Marco: Yeah fuck Barnard.

For the trade itself, Marco's team is officially complete, and bordering on juggernaut status. Which means he will barely miss a bye, and lose in the first round to the NiJo team, which will very likely be Esco. Tua does have a rough stretch coming up, but Marco is thinking about Weeks 15-17, not Weeks 11-14.

Fake Esco was correct above, this doesn't move the needle a ton for him. It makes him less Dolphin-dependent, something I've been aiming for since 2000, and gives him some improved flex options. He also has a crazy Jaguars stack that could be big in juicy matchups against Cincy, Houston, and Tennessee.

All in all, this is obviously a win-win and more teams would be better off blindly listening to me. 

Esco Grade: A
Marco Grade: A 

Week 11 Power Rankings/Trade Deadline Preview

It's been awhile since I made a full blog post. It's been so long...(HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN?) It's been so long that Marco of all people has written a guest blog. He wasn't even in the league when this blog was Donny's and was run out of a Google Listserve! Sure there have been the odd trade grades here and there, but the people are clamoring for the real thing. And the real thing they will get.

Let's start with some old school, extremely subjective  scientific Power Rankings with a focus on trade possibilities, and follow that up with a playoff picture check-in and the usual mock trades. (Editor's Note: I started writing this on Tuesday, before Marco and Ajay preyed on Barnard/Gutman/Weissbard, so the analysis as it relates to those moves will be more lacking than usual.)

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Marco
Roster Strength: Flex. Some teams have difficult and often disgusting decisions for their flex due to lack of depth, others have obvious choices due to no options at RB3 or WR3. Marco has a difficult choice because he runs four deep at both RB and WR. That depth is almost unheard of in this league. Another strength may be that he has Barnard on speed dial if he needs to make any last minute trades.

Roster Weakness: Quarterback. It's honestly shocking that the flurry of trades this week didn't yield an upgrade at QB for Marco. Yes, Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards. And he's currently QB5 in fantasy, ahead of guys like Mahomes, Tua, and Trevor Lawrence. But he hasn't had his bye yet, and after feasting on the G-Men this week, he has a murderer's row of defenses to end the season. Lawrence (RIP Watson) provides some insurance, but pairing a WR with one of them to get a more reliable QB would truly make Marco the team to beat.

2. Zacherman
Roster Strength: Tight End. Having a strength at a onesie position (QB, TE, DST) is very useful for  encouraging trades, as you are either unable to start multiple players (QB, DST), or it is rarely ideal (TE). For Zacherman, Kincaid has been a weekly flex option with Knox hurt, and with that injury timetable unclear, standing pat is certainly an option. But as you will see below, using Kincaid (or Kelce! or Freiermuth!) to fortify an otherwise lacking bench may be a better use of your situation
Roster Weakness: Depth. Z has had absurd luck in the health department this year. The only injuries he's dealt with were voluntarily added during the draft (Breece) or via trade (JJ/Air Freier). That is unlikely to last for any team, let alone one relying on Keenan Allen to an absurd degree. Zacherman's trades and waiver additions have been solid at worst, but getting another viable WR, or upgrading at RB3 would help cushion the lack of playoff luck that has plagued Z in the past.

3. Ajay
Roster Strength: Handcuffs. Earlier this season, Ajay was in rough shape at RB. That is no longer the case due to trades (Conner, Kyren) and luck (Rachaad White suddenly remembering how to play football). To mitigate his previous issues, Ajay acquired and held onto multiple handcuffs. He has his own cuffs for Etienne and Conner, but he still has Zamir White, who is more valuable to the Jacobs owner than anyone else. Yes, I'm reaching here, but Ajay's team is just solid without a ton of excess.
Roster Weakness: FAAB. Part of the reason he has no excess is that Ajay spent literally all of his FAAB before the end of October. The $66 for Henderson led to him acquiring Higgins, but Latavius Murray and Craig Reynolds for $99 has aged incredibly poorly. As mentioned, his team is solid now, so this is not a huge concern, but I would be scared going into the playoffs with no backup to Herbert and trying to stream defenses without being able to bid even $1. 

4. Bennett
Roster Strength: Starters. When healthy, this team can compete with anyone. Solid RBs, a league winner in Tyreek, and no real holes outside of maybe defense depending on the matchup. I would have thought Bennett had the most consistently high floor in the league, but I would have been wrong, as he as failed to clear 90 points five times so far. Getting Goedert back will make a big difference, and Keaton Mitchell could haunt Esco for years, so I would not want to face this team in the playoffs.
Roster Weakness: Depth. The obvious counterpoint. If any of his preferred starters go down, Bennett is stuck relying on the likes of Jamaal Williams, Rondale Moore, and Tyler Conklin. Not ideal for a Stevens Bowl contender.

5. Billy
Roster Strength: Runningback. Not much to say here, but hitting on all three of his big RBs means Billy is back in title contention for the first time in years. Currently, CMC/Ekeler/JT are averaging a combined 50.6 points per game. I'd bite your arm off for that kind of RB production.
Roster Weakness: Quarterback. Billy always goes big at RB, and usually tries to get by with streaming at the other positions. This year he has a high enough floor at WR, along with a legitimate weekly starter at TE in Kmet. He even has Ekeler's handcuff, which is not always the case. But going into the playoffs with Baker Mayfield and Will Levis at QB is not going to lead to a Chef's Hat. For reference, when Billy won Stevens Bowl III, he had Drew Brees at QB (Arian Foster and Reggie Bush were his big RBs, and he also had the Jets version of LDT, and Jeremy Shockey! Memories!). To be a real contender, Billy may need to flip an RB for a joint upgrade at QB and WR.

This concludes what I would consider the real contenders as currently situated. Teams that are extremely likely to make the playoffs, and can do damage once they're in. If this league has taught me anything though, it's that the Stevens Bowl is a fickle beast. So the next group of teams could obviously still win. Nothing epitomizes that more than...

6. Alan
Roster Strength: Depth. What record would a team of Brock Purdy/Chuba Hubbard/Devin Singletary/George Pickens/Jahan Dotson/Tyler Higbee have? Would Barnard swap teams with that? Because those are all backups for Alan at QB/RB/WR/TE. Very impressive, and very typical of Alan to hang around .500 for most of the year, and turn into Playoff Alan come December. If I was him, I would package Purdy and an RB for an upgrade somewhere, but who am I to give advice to the Apron Wearer?
Roster Weakness: High-End RB Talent. I don't love Joe Mixon as RB1 for a title team. I really don't love a combo of James Cook/Chuba/Singletary as RB2 for a title team. As mentioned, turning Purdy and one of Cook/Chuba/Singletary into someone on par with Mixon (Javonte? Saquon? Mostert?) would bump Alan up a couple of spots.

7. AGD
Roster Strength: Wide Receiver. AGD is one of the more straightforward teams in this exercise. After their questionable trade with Nick, they have too many startable WRs. Depth is one thing, but watching one of Puka or Amari (not to mention Elijah Moore, D.J. Chark, and Rob Woods, who would be flex options for some teams) toil on your bench while you trot out Kareem Hunt or A.J. Dillon at RB2 has to be painful.
Roster Weakness: Runningback. See above. Deebo and Kareem for a better RB?

8. Levine
Roster Strength: Depth. Shocker, I know. It may actually be a shock to see a 2-8 team this high on the list, but I mean look at that roster! No one likes to root for Russ, and the reliance on Vikings RBs is unfortunate, but his bench is even better than Alan's. The NiJo spot is realistically Levine's only path to the playoffs, but he's only 75 points back right now (albeit with four teams to pass). A notoriously unwilling trader, Levine needs to shit or get off the pot (sorry Alan) in the next few days.
Roster Weakness: Enjoyment. The major downside of drafting for value at all costs is that you often end up hating your team. I've been there the last few years, and sometimes those seasons can lead to a Chef's Coat, but other times they can lead to starting 5 Cowboys multiple times. No one really knows where Levine's head is at, but if he's not going to make a big play for the NiJo spot, at least trade for some Dolphins. I'm sure that Tua, Waddle, and Mostert are gettable.

9. Nick
Roster Strength: Tight End. This is one of the most Nick seasons ever. He has lost three games by less than three points, has a roster of players he doesn't like (aside from Stroud), yet is still alive for the playoffs so he has to keep caring. Adam Schefter reports that Nick is fine rolling out Jonnu at TE after the bye, so LaPorta becomes one of the best players on the trade block in the league.
Roster Weakness: Upside. Nick's starters have a high floor, and his bench isn't bad. But outside of a Week 3 explosion that was fueled by a player no longer on the team (Deebo) and unsustainable production (Bills D, McKinnon), he hasn't shown the capability to compete with the big dogs. 

10. Esco
Roster Strength: Team Composition. This might be another way of saying Depth, but I'm impressed in what Esco has put together. Two startable QBs in the right matchup? Check. Handcuffs to both his starting RBs? Check. Upside at WR to make up for a lack of high end talent? Check.  He currently has a 33 point lead in the NiJo race, that I am going to bet that he maintains. A brutal division (great drafting Bennett!) means that may be his only path to the playoffs, but he's the 6-seed I would want to avoid if I was a top team.
Roster Weakness: Tight End. Perceptive readers will notice the one position I did not mention above. Njoku is fine, and it remains to be seen how he performs with DTR the rest of the season, but that would be a position I would try to upgrade.

This concludes the teams that have a solid shot at the playoffs. The teams below have a combined four Stevens Bowls, and also Barnard, but this has not been our year.

11. Gutman
Roster Strength: Flex. I'm not going to say straight up Depth, because that's not entirely true, but when healthy, Gut's Flex options are Rhamondre/Drake/Shaheed/Musgrave, with the hilarious potential of Fat Lenny playing a role. Not stellar, but prettay prettay good.
Roster Weakness: Quarterback. It's the time of year for Hallmark movies, and Gut must have a soft spot for long shots. Geno was America's sweetheart last year, and Dobbs is poised to fill that role this year if Minny goes on a run. Starting either one of them means you are not a serious contender.

12. Kumpf
Roster Strength: Quarterback. I could have easily said "Cowboys" and left it at that, but I don't see people lining up for a shot at Uncle Rico Dowdle. Dak has been a revelation lately, and Goff is an upgrade for a few teams, so if someone will finally trade with me, I would guess that one of those two is involved. 
Roster Weakness: Runningback. See Dowdle, Uncle Rico.

13. Weissbard
Roster Strength: Low-End Depth. I look at Weissbard's roster and I see a middle of the pack team. Some of that has to due with guys like Fields and the newly-acquired Achane coming back from injury, but this does not appear to be a bad team in the way that our bottom dwellers usually are. Then I see that he's scored 48 points less than BARNARD, and I can't rank Weiss higher than this. His bench is full of guys that could be useful to contenders though.
Roster Weakness: Talent? I used the word "useful" above as it relates to Weissbard's bench. It unfortunately also applies to his starters, where the vast majority of his players would not be an upgrade for the top tier teams. That makes it tough to make trades, but I respect the way Weiss has powered through.

14. Barnard
Roster Strength: D/ST. The Browns defense has been incredible and also exciting. Good job, good effort.
Roster Weakness: Roster Management. It takes a real dedication to not having a Chef's Coat to turn Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, and D.J. Chark into Darrell Henderson Jr., D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd, Dalton Schultz, Jerry Jeudy, Zeke, and Michael Thomas. 

Playoff Picture

If the playoffs started today, we would have:
1 (BYE) . Zacherman - Levine Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2 (BYE). Ajay - Alan Division Champ
3. Billy - Bennett Division Champ
4. Marco - Wild Card 1
5. Bennett - Wild Card 2
6. Esco - NiJo Spot

By record, Esco, Kumpf and Gutman are one game out, and Nick, Alan, AGD, and Barnard are two games out. For the NiJo race, Esco is ahead of Kumpf (33 points), Gutman (49 points), Nick (66 points), Levine (76 points), Alan (88 points), and AGD (96 points). Weissbard is the odd man out here, 3 games back by record and 190 points out of the NiJo spot.

2023 Mock Trades

Given all the analysis above, I'm going to leave these trades here without any commentary.

Mock Trade 1
Esco receives Trevor Lawrence, Gus Edwards, and Calvin Ridley
Marco receives Tua Tagovailoa, Antonio Gibson, and Brandin Cooks

Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Quentin Johnston and Dalton Kincaid
Zacherman receives Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice

Mock Trade 3
Ajay receives Emari Demercado and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nick receives Rachaad White and DK Metcalf

Mock Trade 4
AGD receives Josh Jacobs and Jamaal Williams
Bennett receives Derrick Henry and Amari Cooper

Mock Trade 5
Billy receives Jared Goff, Tony Pollard, and Rico Dowdle
Kumpf receives Baker Mayfield, Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Kelley

Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Geno Smith, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Stefon Diggs
Gutman receives Jalen Hurts, James Cook, and George Pickens

Mock Trade 7
Levine receives Joe Burrow, Tyjae Spears, Darrell Henderson Jr., and Michael Thomas
Barnard receives Russell Wilson, Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, and Mike Evans

See you in the playoffs for the usual matchup breakdowns.

Trade Grades 10-13

I have another post coming later this week, but I want to get these Trade Grades out of the way as they are materially relevant to the theme of the other post. The theme of this post is Marco and Ajay making a serious play for a Chef Coat/Apron at the expense of three teams that won't be making the playoffs.

Trade 10
Barnard receives Tyler Boyd
Marco receives Calvin Ridley

Just a fantastic example of how to destroy value by Barnard. Ridley hasn't lived up to expectations after a huge Week 1, but he's still a nice flex option with some nice matchups down the stretch. He also has some rough matchups coming up, and unlike Barnard, Marco has the depth to not be forced to start Ridley. A clear upgrade and an obvious decision for Marco.

Boyd has admittedly performed better than I previously assumed over the last month, but a lot of that has been due to other injuries to Cincy receivers. Higgins is still banged up, so Barnard gets a pretty direct replacement, but if/when Higgins returns, he basically turned a flex option into nothing. Yes, Barnard likely needs to win out for a chance at the playoffs, but Cincy plays Baltimore and Pittsburgh the next two weeks, which are unlikely to be high-scoring affairs. If Barnard was looking for a direct swap of Ridley for another WR, guys like George Pickens, Rashee Rice, or even Zay Flowers (if he was determined to trade with Marco) would have been better value.

Barnard Grade: D+
Marco Grade: A

Trade 11
Gutman receives Zay Flowers
Marco receives Zach Charbonnet

Before looking at the individual players at all, Marco traded a newly expendable WR4 for the handcuff to his oft-injured RB2 (and potentially the guy overtaking his RB2). That on its own is good business. At the same time, Gutman took an RB4 who he wouldn't start in the next few weeks barring injury, and turned him into a weekly Flex option (and regrettable WR2 this week). That's a win-win trade.

Looking at the individual players, I'd much rather have Charb due to the aforementioned issues with KW3, but these teams both improved with this move.

Gutman Grade: B+
Marco Grade: A-

Trade 12
Marco receives Bijan Robinson and Tank Dell
Weissbard receives De'Von Achane and Garrett Wilson

The upset of the year is Weissbard not getting fleeced for Bijan after offering him to the other 13 teams, plus Bruno and Chris Long. This also probably goes down as our biggest trade of the season in terms of the names involved (Tank Dell!), and I will always be a fan of that. HOWEVER, I don't really like this trade for either team. Weissbard realistically needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, and the NiJo spot is well out of reach given that he's 50 points below the second lowest scoring team. Bijan isn't flashy, but he's theoretically a guaranteed 10 points with 20-point upside as long as Arthur Smith stops being a dick. Marco, on the other hand, has designs on a Chef's Coat. He needs league winners, and I'm not sure anyone has that upside more than Achane. 

These are our two most trade-happy teams, but I think they both did themselves a disservice this time.

Marco Grade: C-
Weissbard Grade: C+

For a quick summary, Marco's flex options went from:
RB: De'Von Achane/Kenneth Walker III/Brian Robinson Jr./Gus Edwards
WR: A.J. Brown/Garrett Wilson/Adam Thielen/Zay Flowers/Tyler Boyd

to

RB: Bijan Robinson/Kenneth Walker III/Brian Robinson Jr/Gus Edwards/Zach Charbonnet
WR: A.J. Brown/Adam Thielen/Tank Dell/Calvin Ridley

I think I prefer the top roster? It's very close though, and may not have been worth the effort, even if trading is fun.

Both Achane and Beej could be league winners I guess, but the Falcons have thus far refused to cook with mustard. Fins have a brutal schedule so it's nice to get away from that, and getting Charb is a plus, but the most obvious upgrade in my mind is going from Boyd to Ridley. I doubt that a WR4 upgrade changes all that much, but it's probably the biggest impact Barnard will have on the Stevens Bowl race.

Trade 13
Ajay receives Tee Higgins and Chargers D/ST
Barnard receives Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyjae Spears, and Browns D/ST

Oh cool, another Barnard trade.

With the return of Conner and the emergence of Rachaad White, Ajay suddenly had too many RBs. He solves that problem here and gives a buffer in case JJ's return takes away from Addison (or Josh Dobbs remembers that he's Josh Dobbs). Higgins is hurt now, and the Bengals' next few weeks are brutal, but Ajay has a three-game lead in the division and is thinking about the playoffs.

For Barnard, I guess it's trying to stop the bleeding? His continued obsession with making short-sighted moves has left him with Zack Moss, Zeke, Michael Thomas, and Taysom on bye. For most teams, that would be a slight inconvenience, if that. For Barnard, it's a four-alarm fire that caused him to trade Ridley for Boyd (partly so he had Higgins insurance), then promptly trade Higgins for a member of the ever-changing Rams RB committee, and a defense? Can't argue with the Browns D actually, that was solid and will likely hurt Ajay given his $0 of auction money. 

I would run through the same roster exercise for Barnard that I did for Marco, but that would be a waste of everyone's time. But I do want to make sure that everyone sees that Barnard essentially paid too much for car insurance, then sold his car but is stuck paying the insurance. Good thing he's not in the insurance industry.

Ajay Grade: B+
Barnard Grade: C+

Actual blog post coming in the next two days, unless you fuckers keep making trades.

Trade Grade 9

 Before we get to this week's trade, we need a quick playoff preview!

If the season ended today, the playoffs would be:
1. Zacherman (BYE) - Levine Division Champion, Best Regular Season Record
2. Ajay (BYE) - Alan Division Champion
3. Billy - Bennett Division Champion
4. Bennett - Wild Card 1
5. Marco - Wild Card 2
6. Esco - NiJo Spot

Those teams are the top six in scoring, HOWEVER, things are far from locked up. Bennett and Marco are 5-4, as is Gutman, and we have FIVE teams art 4-5. A single win or loss can make a massive difference at this point. Esco currently has a 65 point lead in the NiJo spot, which is a relatively large gap at this point, so just winning games matters the most for teams not currently in the playoffs (ANALYSIS!). 

No teams are officially in the playoffs (though I can't picture Z missing out, recent slide aside), and no one is officially eliminated (though Levine, Weissbard, and AGD have a lot of ground to gain). The trade deadline is November 24th, so the next two weeks should make the playoff picture a lot more clear.

SEGUE!

Trade Grade 9
AGD Receives Deebo Samuel and Jamison Crowder
Nick Receives C.J. Stroud and Najee Harris

I honestly have no idea what's going on with AGD. I didn't love their draft, though Puka for $1 is one of the better picks in FALAFEL history, and almost every move after that has been a head scratcher. Their trade with Ajay aged decently well, but bidding $30 more than any other team for Stroud when they already have Lamar? Then trading Stroud for Deebo, who is not only always injured, but forces one of Kupp/Amari/Puka to the bench? I understand that wins are vital at this point, but I also have to assume that you could have made some sort of move for an RB, or a WR upgrade, as opposed to an additional WR that will create brutal lineup decisions. Nick clearly needed a QB, loves his Ohio State boys, and seemed desperate to unload one of his Lions. Not a fan of this move.

From Nick's side, well done. Stroud is not only a big upgrade at QB, but he's fun to watch and leaves you with Chase and ARSB at WR still. Flex is a glaring issue, but I'd rather roll the dice with your options there than at QB, let alone the trade that we were discussing.

AGD Grade: D+
Nick Grade: B

Trade Grade 8

Ajay Receives Keyontay Ingram
Esco Receives Jeff Wilson Jr.

Not loving these weekend trades for grading purposes, but as always the analysis is as of when the trade occurred.

This is about as small potatoes as a trade gets, though I feel like we do have a lot of these 2nd/3rd string RB swaps in our league due to the importance of handcuffs. With that in mind, the logic on both sides is clear. Ajay got a (theoretical) starting RB for one week, who is the second string handcuff to Conner when everyone is healthy. Esco got the handcuff to Mostert, who is already not even getting a full workload in Miami when Achane is healthy. No issue with what either side gave up, and I've already said too much about this move. Slight edge to Esco because Mostert has a (barely) more significant injury history than Conner, the Miami offense is better than Arizona's, and Wilson will get more touches than Ingram no matter who is healthy.

Ajay Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B