Last week was a Murphy's Law weekend for me. Lost this league matchup without breaking 30 until SNF, lost my other three leagues (including one by 0.18), had my first rough betting week, and Miami lost to the fucking Jets. It can only get better from here, at least that's what I'm telling myself. Belfer and Weissbard also had rough weekends, falling to 0-3. This type of performance is somewhat familiar for Weissbard, as he has the second lowest PAA among active FALAFEL teams, and he ran into Gutman's buzzsaw, but this is entirely new territory for Belfer. After enjoying a top-4 PAA while teamed with Reap, he's reeling after falling to a Marco team that couldn't even crack 75.
Kudos to Zacherman, who not only named his division in the last week, but also picked the best (worst) division so far. He does have three teams above .500, but the average points scored in his division is 253.56, coming in behind BAM (264.3) and Alan (280.36). Alan is obviously the worst here, and he also hasn't named his division yet.
Finally, there's nothing quite like watching Gutman sweat things out as an undefeated team. He's fully aware that his team is a house of cards, and is hoping that no one else realizes it, giving him the ability to swing a trade. Unfortunately for him, he's terrified to trade Rodgers, and knows that no one is paying full price for his Viking receivers. He thought that no one would bid on Wendell Smallwood, because he's Philly's RB3, giving Gutman some "inside" information (full disclosure: Barnard had no idea who Wendell Smallwood was until I asked why he didn't bid on him). Right before waivers processed, Esco sent an inflammatory message in GroupMe, causing Gut to increase his bid from ~$40 to $83, using over 40% of his budget on a player who's not starting on his own team. Like I said, a successful and paranoid Gutman is the best Gutman, though honorable mention goes to Fat Gutman and Food Stamps Gutman (RIP).
Playoff Odds
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
This is always the weird week for playoff odds thanks to Gutman's miracle playoff run from 0-4 a few years back, as well as the fact that no 3-0 team has ever lost the next week. But it's also a big week for delineation, because the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 is pretty large. We currently have five teams at 1-2, so history says the season could already be on the line. None of these five play each other, so we should know a lot more about those teams next week.
Trade Recap
Belfer receives Adrian Peterson
Weissbard receives D'Onta Foreman
LOL. This is obviously a desperation trade between winless teams, but I actually think this was a raping by Weissbard. Peterson has been barely involved on the Saints so far, and it would likely take injuries to both Ingram and Kamara for me to feel comfortable starting him. On the other side, Foreman is already splitting time with Lamar Miller, and could be flex-worthy by later in the season even without injury to Miller.
Belfer Grade: D-
Weissbard Grade: B+
Team of the Week - Alan
Our defending champ gets in the winning column in impressive fashion, taking down undefeated Levine and putting up the weekly high score. He did this all with two arms tied behind his back, as his TE and D/ST combined for 0.6 points. After a rough start to the season, it's encouraging to see guys like Palmer, Cooks, and Baldwin put up big numbers. As mentioned though, this week is also borderline must-win against a truly desperate Belfer team.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Tarik Cohen over Chris Johnson
No one made an amazing decision, but I could see Alan trying to justify his absurd spending on CJ by starting him over Cohen (an extremely savvy pickup post-draft by our defending champ). But he stuck with logic it gave him the win.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Donte Moncrief over Sammy Watkins
There were a lot of terrible lineup decisions this week (Esco, Belfer, Levine and I also cost ourselves wins), but most of them are justifiable. I honestly have no idea what Barnard was thinking here. I would argue that Donte Moncrief is more deserving of being on waivers than he is of being in anyone's starting lineup. Sammy isn't a no-doubt start, but this was terrible.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM!
In my draft recap, I gave this team an F and said "This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss." Well, this is what is looks like when they explode. BAM's top four would have outscored 5 other teams on their own this week. It's not likely to happen every week, but given this type of potential, along with a solid waiver pickup in Buck Allen, and I'm not completely writing this duo off yet.
Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Gutman vs. Esco
No obvious choices here this week, so I'll go with the showdown between two of the three highest scoring teams, along with my last two (losing) Matchup of the Week picks. The QB matchup leans heavily towards Gutman, who should get out to a nice early lead thanks to Rodgers. I like the overall depth of Esco's team better, but Gut has slightly better matchups this week. Going into MNF, Tyreek Hill should be a big-game away from taking the lead, but standing in his way is...Chris Thompson? The surprising RB3 on the year will have the chance to ice Gutman's lead, and given the way this year has gone so far, I'm not betting against him. The #Kurse isn't officially back yet, but if Gut loses, I'm ready to bust it out next week.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-2
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 4 Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Bears
Patriots (-9) vs. Panthers
Titans (-1) at Texans
Eagles (Pick) at Chargers
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Last Week: 2-4
2017 Record: 8-5
NCAA Week 5 Bets
Duke (+7) vs. Miami
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Northwestern
Iowa (+4) at Michigan State
Virginia Tech (+8) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 8-5
Thursday, September 28, 2017
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Week 2 Recap
It always feels good to get your first win of the year. I felt like it had been awhile since I started 1-0 in this league, and even though we don't have the 2012 league page, I discovered that I haven't led off with a win since 2011! For reference, that year Kimmel was in the league, Gutman's team name referenced Curb Your Enthusiasm (which is luckily relevant again), and Nick's team name referenced Jerry Sandusky (which is unluckily relevant again). Regardless, I'm on the board after two weeks, something that can't be said for Weissbard, Alan, BAM, and Belfer. Better luck this week guys.
Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Team of the Week - Gutman
Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen
No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns
Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?
Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.
Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett
Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1
NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5
Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.
Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Team of the Week - Gutman
Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen
No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns
Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?
Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.
Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett
Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1
NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5
Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.
Friday, September 15, 2017
Week 1 Recap
Week 1 is always weird, for obvious reasons, but this feels like the weirdest Week 1 in fantasy history. The top two picks by a long shot were DJ and LeVeon, and not only did they wildly disappoint, but DJ is now gone for at least 2 months, and more likely the season considering the Cardinals won't have much to play for in December. The rest of the top guys didn't really show up either, other than Antonio Brown, and of the top eleven Week 1 scorers, 4 of them are defenses. I think a lot of this boils down to terrible O-Line play, as that doomed the offenses in Cincy, Houston, Seattle, and Washington among others. Lines tend to play better over the course of the season, so things aren't settled yet, but I feel like this season will be determined by which O-Line can keep its shit together and stay healthy.
Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.
Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.
Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.
After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."
Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.
Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0
NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2
Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.
Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.
Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.
After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."
Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.
Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0
NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2
Friday, September 8, 2017
Week 1 Preview
I meant to get this out yesterday, but it feels a lot better now that the Patriots are alone with the worst record in the NFL. What doesn't feel so good is looking at my matchup and realizing that Steve Levine hates me. Off the fantasy field, Levine voted against every single one of my proposed rule changes during the offseason, without sending a single email backing up his opinion. I can only assume this would be his reaction when asked why he voted the way he did:
On top of that, my last two fantasy matchups have been against him. Last year in the playoffs, LeVeon Bell put up 47.8 points, the highest individual score of the season, to knock me out of my first playoffs in five years. This year in the first game of the season, Kareem Hunt puts up 43.1 points, which could also be the highest individual score of the season. It ain't over yet, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Which brings up two questions. 1) Levine, why do you hate me? We're the only two Dolphins fans in FALAFEL so we should be sticking together. And 2) After Hunt's 5-reception game, how do you like that half-PPR now?
Trade Recap
Marco Receives Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley
Weissbard Receives Dez Bryant, Josh Doctson
This was one of the more obvious trades even before the Miami game got postponed. Marco was way too top-heavy at WR at the expense of literally everything else, while Weiss had RB depth but seemingly forgot about the WR position. I'm on record as a huge Tevin Coleman fan, but with Shanahan gone and Freeman healthy, his ceiling is limited. Still an upgrade for Marco, but I have to give Weissbard the edge here.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: A
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Zacherman vs. Ajay
It's hard to predict much about the relative importance of a fantasy matchup heading into Week 1, but this year there is a slightly added importance on the divisions than there was in the past. Ajay vs. Z is one of three intra-division matchups this week, and with Zeke's one week stay of execution, it has added importance because it's one of 6 weeks that Z will get to use his prize RB. We all assumed Z would get out to a good start last night when it looked like Gronk pulled in a nice TD, but the call was reversed, and he was mostly held in check the rest of the game. This looks a lot like a toss up, and could easily come down to Brees vs. Demaryius on MNF. I like Zacherman's matchups a little bit better, so I'm picking Brees to slightly hold off DT for the win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-0
Gambling Corner
Because I don't have a ton to write about this week, and because I just put down a lot of money on a Latvian betting website, I thought I would list my bets for this week/season to hopefully inspire more degenerates in this league than there already are. I'll keep doing this if people find it interesting, and if y'all don't then refer to the image above.
2017 NFL Season Bets
Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl (28:1)
Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl (10:1)
Cam Newton MVP (25:1)
Isaiah Crowell Leads NFL in Rushing (50:1)
Arizona Cardinals over 8.5 wins
Chicago Bears over 5.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals under 8.5 wins
Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions under 8 wins
Houston Texans under 8.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers over 7.5 wins
Los Angeles Rams over 5.5 wins
New York Giants under 9 wins
Oakland Raiders under 10 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs under 8.5 wins
2017 NFL Week 1 Bets
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders (+2) at Tennessee Titans
2017 NCAA Week 2 Bets
North Carolina (+10) vs. Louisville
South Carolina (+3) at Missouri
Stanford (+6) at USC
Record: 3-0
On top of that, my last two fantasy matchups have been against him. Last year in the playoffs, LeVeon Bell put up 47.8 points, the highest individual score of the season, to knock me out of my first playoffs in five years. This year in the first game of the season, Kareem Hunt puts up 43.1 points, which could also be the highest individual score of the season. It ain't over yet, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Which brings up two questions. 1) Levine, why do you hate me? We're the only two Dolphins fans in FALAFEL so we should be sticking together. And 2) After Hunt's 5-reception game, how do you like that half-PPR now?
Trade Recap
Marco Receives Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley
Weissbard Receives Dez Bryant, Josh Doctson
This was one of the more obvious trades even before the Miami game got postponed. Marco was way too top-heavy at WR at the expense of literally everything else, while Weiss had RB depth but seemingly forgot about the WR position. I'm on record as a huge Tevin Coleman fan, but with Shanahan gone and Freeman healthy, his ceiling is limited. Still an upgrade for Marco, but I have to give Weissbard the edge here.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: A
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Zacherman vs. Ajay
It's hard to predict much about the relative importance of a fantasy matchup heading into Week 1, but this year there is a slightly added importance on the divisions than there was in the past. Ajay vs. Z is one of three intra-division matchups this week, and with Zeke's one week stay of execution, it has added importance because it's one of 6 weeks that Z will get to use his prize RB. We all assumed Z would get out to a good start last night when it looked like Gronk pulled in a nice TD, but the call was reversed, and he was mostly held in check the rest of the game. This looks a lot like a toss up, and could easily come down to Brees vs. Demaryius on MNF. I like Zacherman's matchups a little bit better, so I'm picking Brees to slightly hold off DT for the win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-0
Gambling Corner
Because I don't have a ton to write about this week, and because I just put down a lot of money on a Latvian betting website, I thought I would list my bets for this week/season to hopefully inspire more degenerates in this league than there already are. I'll keep doing this if people find it interesting, and if y'all don't then refer to the image above.
2017 NFL Season Bets
Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl (28:1)
Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl (10:1)
Cam Newton MVP (25:1)
Isaiah Crowell Leads NFL in Rushing (50:1)
Arizona Cardinals over 8.5 wins
Chicago Bears over 5.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals under 8.5 wins
Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions under 8 wins
Houston Texans under 8.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers over 7.5 wins
Los Angeles Rams over 5.5 wins
New York Giants under 9 wins
Oakland Raiders under 10 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs under 8.5 wins
2017 NFL Week 1 Bets
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders (+2) at Tennessee Titans
2017 NCAA Week 2 Bets
North Carolina (+10) vs. Louisville
South Carolina (+3) at Missouri
Stanford (+6) at USC
Record: 3-0
Friday, September 1, 2017
Louisville Draft Recap
I usually grade each draft by handing out a series of quotes from a movie or TV show that's relevant to the draft location. Louisville specifically, and Kentucky in general, unfortunately don't have much in the way of quoteable source material. I was a huge fan of the TV show Justified, but unless I have an unforeseen amount of support there, it would be primarily for my own benefit. The lone exception might be A League Of Their Own, which apparently did a lot of filming in Kentucky, but I'd like to save that for a potential draft in Rockford, Illinois, and it would feel wrong to hand out those quotes for a draft that Donny missed.
After the Nashville draft, I called an audible on this tradition by handing out country music lyrics, so I'll be doing the same this year with a similarly relevant subject. Without further ado, here are this year's draft grades, along with an appropriate Kentucky Derby winner:
Alan - Big Brown
Our defending champ had one of the more obvious name choices. As we've seen over the last decade, Alan typically either finishes near the bottom, or wins the whole damn thing. I think this is year is one of the former. He somehow got into an insane bidding war over Jordy that led him to pay just about as much for a 32 year old white WR with a torn ACL in his history as other teams paid for Julio and OBJ. The Cooks bid wasn't much better, and those two WRs basically cost you the chance to have any sort of depth. I think Carson Palmer bounces back this year and Frank Gore is the definition of both reliable and unexciting, but if one of your WRs gets hurt or has a down year, you're in a lot of trouble.
Best Pick: Carson Palmer for $1
Worst Pick: Jordy Nelson for $61
Grade: D-
Esco - Behave Yourself
Lost in the absolute drunkenness of that draft, was the fact that a few teams actually showed some moderation and didn't make outlandish bids. As usual, Esco is one of those teams and he has depth that only a few can match. I don't have a problem with Luck at QB, but if he misses multiple games, I'm less excited about paying $8 for him. Other than that, and that I'm not a fan of his specific WRs (though he got good value), there's not much to complain about here other than the lack of a super-high ceiling.
Best Pick: Duke Johnson for $6
Worst Pick: Andrew Luck for $8
Grade: B
Weissbard - Shut Out
While this name refers primarily to Arsenal's performance against Liverpool, it can also apply to Weissbard's playoff chances. I honestly don't hate the LeVeon bid, him and DJ are likely worth $80+ in our league, but $43 on an RB2 was probably too much, and you followed that with yet another RB! The NFL is insanely deep at WR, yet somehow you have Jarvis Landry and literally nothing else. The small bids on Washington and Vereen are fine, but you literally should have spent all of your remaining dollars at WR after you got your top 2 RBs. I see a trade in your future, but one that you might not be able to win.
Best Pick: Tevin Coleman for $13 (though he should have been your RB2)
Worst Pick: Lamar Miller for $43
Grade: C+
Barnard - Regret
I feel like Barnard should get "Regret" tattooed on himself given the way he operates on a day-to-day basis, and it also applies to his bid on Gurley. However, I don't hate the rest of his team. Brady was a pretty good deal (though QBs were devalued overall), and the rest of his roster is relatively deep, even if I don't like most of the players individually. He's betting relatively big on the Rams offense, but even if they're as bad as they look, he has enough depth that it won't cripple him. Eli for $2 as his third QB pretty much defines Barnard's draft day behavior.
Best Pick: Tom Brady for $22
Worst Pick: Todd Gurley for $52
Grade: B
Belfer - Northern Dancer
Belfer twerking on Alan as Reap made it rain, while all of them were dressed as chefs, is something I will never forget, and it earns Belf this admitted stretch of a horse name. The draft was always going to go downhill from there, but for Belf it didn't go down too far. Julio and Gordon is a nice duo up top, and your starting lineup is pretty well-rounded. I worry about depth at RB, as well as your Detroit connection at QB/TE, but this is a solid team overall.
Best Pick: Tyrell Williams for $2
Worst Pick: Julio Jones for $63 (nitpicking, but he's an injury risk?)
Grade: B
Zacherman - Forward Pass
This horse goes to Z because he's all in on the passing game, at the expense of running the ball. His typical picks of Brees and Gronk are augmented by a stud receiver in Green and pass catching RBs. The big wild card here is Zeke, and this grade is based on what we knew at the time. I'm on record in saying that this is a terrible pick because you're guaranteed a MAX of 6 regular season games from him, assuming he doesn't get hurt or beat any more women. That pick will define your season, for better or worse, but if you can weather the storm before he comes back, he could carry you to a chef's coat.
Best Pick: Darren Sproles for $7 (half-PPR!)
Worst Pick: Zeke Elliott for $49
Grade: B-
Ajay - Sir Barton
Sir Barton was the first Triple Crown winner, and unless Alan pulls another miracle, Ajay is in the driver's seat to be FALAFEL's first three-time champ as well (I can also neither confirm nor deny that Ajay still drinks Barton's). This is another extremely deep team, but one with more boom/bust players than the other deep teams. That's a fine line to walk, but even if a few of these guys don't pan out, there should be enough leftover to field a solid team. I can easily see a consolidation trade with one of the top heavy teams as well. This is my post-draft Stevens Bowl pick.
Best Pick: Willie Snead for $12
Worst Pick: Demaryius Thomas for $40
Grade: B+
Marco - I'll Have Another
Another self-explanatory horse name, Marco started the auction with a bang. And just like that he was out of money. There's nothing wrong with a top-heavy team, but if you're gonna go hard early, you need to be on your game at the end to snap up values. Blacking out is typically not the best way to be on your game. The prices on Shady and AB were fine, but immediately following them with Dez pretty much ruined any chances of fielding a starting lineup. You're destined for a trade rape.
Best Pick: Philip Rivers for $1? Not a lot of value here.
Worst Pick: Dez Bryant for $50
Grade: D
Kumpf - His Eminence
Despite all of y'alls best efforts to kick me out, I'm still running this shit. I don't love my team, but I think I have the most solid options of anyone on a week-to-week basis. That probably means I'll end up starting the wrong lineup each week, but choosing between Gillislee, Abdullah, Garcon and Martavis at flex is a lot more fun than most of you have. I'm gonna pick myself vs. Ajay in the Stevens Bowl, which was my same pick as two years ago when Ajay ended up in a chef's hat and I ended up missing the playoffs. I'm hoping I flip the script this time.
Best Pick: Ameer Abdullah for $15
Worst Pick: Cam Newton for $9
Grade: B+
Levine - Real Quiet
As usual, Levine didn't make much noise at what was otherwise a very noisy draft. And as usual, he walked away with a very solid team. As opposed to last year, where he (rightly) bet on LeVeon returning from suspension to carry his team, this year he already has a great team and then might get the Muscle Hamster back as a starting RB. The only reason he's not at the top of my list is his WR group. I love Keenan but he's never healthy, and outside of that I don't see anything reliable. Having said all that, I expect him easily make the final four.
Best Pick: Mark Ingram for $17
Worst Pick: Kelvin Benjamin for $22
Grade: B
BAM - Genuine Risk
Calling the past week rough for Billy would be an understatement, but his team looks extremely top-heavy and risky. The ODB price seems high, but a starting core of him and Murray isn't bad. Adding Michael Thomas and (accidentally) Hilton to them, is unsustainable in terms of fielding a weekly roster. The grade here comes mainly from the fact that, once you established your top four, the rest of your money should have gone to RB. Instead, you spent $3 on a TE that might not start on his own team, and $2 each on a 4th and 5th WR. This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss.
Best Pick: DeMarco Murray for $41
Worst Pick: T.Y. Hilton for $34
Grade: F
Gutman - Foolish Pleasure
This name applies to Gutman taking the both the top QB and the RB. The price was high, but I do think you'll enjoy watching Rodgers and DJ put up points every week. And of all the top-heavy teams, I like the way you supplemented your roster the best, other than likely overpaying for Cooper. Yes, your RB2 situation is bleak right now, but Perine will likely take over at some point, and Lewis/Richard should at least put up a few points until then. Worst case, you can flip one of your Vikings WRs for reinforcements. There may be some rough weeks, but overall this team will be competitive.
Best Pick: Stefon Diggs for $12
Worst Pick: Amari Cooper for $50
Grade: B
Bennett - Thunder Gulch
This was the only weather related horse name, and urban dictionary defines Thunder Gulch as "the gagging sound exerted when a dick is shoved too far down the mouth," so I couldn't resist. Bennett went HUGE for Mike Evans, who I like, but he's not worth $9 more than A.J. Green. Despite that, the rest of this team came together pretty nicely. I don't hate any position group, but outside of Kelce at TE, I see the rest of them as average at best. That's not a terrible place to be, and could lead to beneficial trades, but it also likely doesn't mean it's a playoff team.
Best Pick: Travis Kelce for $21
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $65
Grade: B-
Reap - Sunday Silence
The quieter member of the newly broken up duo will also spend most of his Sundays quietly looking at his roster (a stretch I know, sorry Reap). To start, I love the team name, and I'd love to see it on a chef's hat, but I'm doubting that happens. I don't hate your starting lineup, but I feel like you marginally overpaid for each of them, leaving you pretty much nothing on the bench. I've lived that life before, and when everyone's healthy you can compete with anyone, but once the injuries and byes pile up, it gets hard to break 80 points. I would highly doubt you finish in last place, but I do think this is a bottom half team.
Best Pick: Kyle Rudolph for $5
Worst Pick: Terrell Pryor Sr. for $33
Grade: C+
Overall Grades in Order:
Week 1 preview hopefully coming next week. Enjoy the long weekend everyone.
After the Nashville draft, I called an audible on this tradition by handing out country music lyrics, so I'll be doing the same this year with a similarly relevant subject. Without further ado, here are this year's draft grades, along with an appropriate Kentucky Derby winner:
Alan - Big Brown
Our defending champ had one of the more obvious name choices. As we've seen over the last decade, Alan typically either finishes near the bottom, or wins the whole damn thing. I think this is year is one of the former. He somehow got into an insane bidding war over Jordy that led him to pay just about as much for a 32 year old white WR with a torn ACL in his history as other teams paid for Julio and OBJ. The Cooks bid wasn't much better, and those two WRs basically cost you the chance to have any sort of depth. I think Carson Palmer bounces back this year and Frank Gore is the definition of both reliable and unexciting, but if one of your WRs gets hurt or has a down year, you're in a lot of trouble.
Best Pick: Carson Palmer for $1
Worst Pick: Jordy Nelson for $61
Grade: D-
Esco - Behave Yourself
Lost in the absolute drunkenness of that draft, was the fact that a few teams actually showed some moderation and didn't make outlandish bids. As usual, Esco is one of those teams and he has depth that only a few can match. I don't have a problem with Luck at QB, but if he misses multiple games, I'm less excited about paying $8 for him. Other than that, and that I'm not a fan of his specific WRs (though he got good value), there's not much to complain about here other than the lack of a super-high ceiling.
Best Pick: Duke Johnson for $6
Worst Pick: Andrew Luck for $8
Grade: B
Weissbard - Shut Out
While this name refers primarily to Arsenal's performance against Liverpool, it can also apply to Weissbard's playoff chances. I honestly don't hate the LeVeon bid, him and DJ are likely worth $80+ in our league, but $43 on an RB2 was probably too much, and you followed that with yet another RB! The NFL is insanely deep at WR, yet somehow you have Jarvis Landry and literally nothing else. The small bids on Washington and Vereen are fine, but you literally should have spent all of your remaining dollars at WR after you got your top 2 RBs. I see a trade in your future, but one that you might not be able to win.
Best Pick: Tevin Coleman for $13 (though he should have been your RB2)
Worst Pick: Lamar Miller for $43
Grade: C+
Barnard - Regret
I feel like Barnard should get "Regret" tattooed on himself given the way he operates on a day-to-day basis, and it also applies to his bid on Gurley. However, I don't hate the rest of his team. Brady was a pretty good deal (though QBs were devalued overall), and the rest of his roster is relatively deep, even if I don't like most of the players individually. He's betting relatively big on the Rams offense, but even if they're as bad as they look, he has enough depth that it won't cripple him. Eli for $2 as his third QB pretty much defines Barnard's draft day behavior.
Best Pick: Tom Brady for $22
Worst Pick: Todd Gurley for $52
Grade: B
Belfer - Northern Dancer
Belfer twerking on Alan as Reap made it rain, while all of them were dressed as chefs, is something I will never forget, and it earns Belf this admitted stretch of a horse name. The draft was always going to go downhill from there, but for Belf it didn't go down too far. Julio and Gordon is a nice duo up top, and your starting lineup is pretty well-rounded. I worry about depth at RB, as well as your Detroit connection at QB/TE, but this is a solid team overall.
Best Pick: Tyrell Williams for $2
Worst Pick: Julio Jones for $63 (nitpicking, but he's an injury risk?)
Grade: B
Zacherman - Forward Pass
This horse goes to Z because he's all in on the passing game, at the expense of running the ball. His typical picks of Brees and Gronk are augmented by a stud receiver in Green and pass catching RBs. The big wild card here is Zeke, and this grade is based on what we knew at the time. I'm on record in saying that this is a terrible pick because you're guaranteed a MAX of 6 regular season games from him, assuming he doesn't get hurt or beat any more women. That pick will define your season, for better or worse, but if you can weather the storm before he comes back, he could carry you to a chef's coat.
Best Pick: Darren Sproles for $7 (half-PPR!)
Worst Pick: Zeke Elliott for $49
Grade: B-
Ajay - Sir Barton
Sir Barton was the first Triple Crown winner, and unless Alan pulls another miracle, Ajay is in the driver's seat to be FALAFEL's first three-time champ as well (I can also neither confirm nor deny that Ajay still drinks Barton's). This is another extremely deep team, but one with more boom/bust players than the other deep teams. That's a fine line to walk, but even if a few of these guys don't pan out, there should be enough leftover to field a solid team. I can easily see a consolidation trade with one of the top heavy teams as well. This is my post-draft Stevens Bowl pick.
Best Pick: Willie Snead for $12
Worst Pick: Demaryius Thomas for $40
Grade: B+
Marco - I'll Have Another
Another self-explanatory horse name, Marco started the auction with a bang. And just like that he was out of money. There's nothing wrong with a top-heavy team, but if you're gonna go hard early, you need to be on your game at the end to snap up values. Blacking out is typically not the best way to be on your game. The prices on Shady and AB were fine, but immediately following them with Dez pretty much ruined any chances of fielding a starting lineup. You're destined for a trade rape.
Best Pick: Philip Rivers for $1? Not a lot of value here.
Worst Pick: Dez Bryant for $50
Grade: D
Kumpf - His Eminence
Despite all of y'alls best efforts to kick me out, I'm still running this shit. I don't love my team, but I think I have the most solid options of anyone on a week-to-week basis. That probably means I'll end up starting the wrong lineup each week, but choosing between Gillislee, Abdullah, Garcon and Martavis at flex is a lot more fun than most of you have. I'm gonna pick myself vs. Ajay in the Stevens Bowl, which was my same pick as two years ago when Ajay ended up in a chef's hat and I ended up missing the playoffs. I'm hoping I flip the script this time.
Best Pick: Ameer Abdullah for $15
Worst Pick: Cam Newton for $9
Grade: B+
Levine - Real Quiet
As usual, Levine didn't make much noise at what was otherwise a very noisy draft. And as usual, he walked away with a very solid team. As opposed to last year, where he (rightly) bet on LeVeon returning from suspension to carry his team, this year he already has a great team and then might get the Muscle Hamster back as a starting RB. The only reason he's not at the top of my list is his WR group. I love Keenan but he's never healthy, and outside of that I don't see anything reliable. Having said all that, I expect him easily make the final four.
Best Pick: Mark Ingram for $17
Worst Pick: Kelvin Benjamin for $22
Grade: B
BAM - Genuine Risk
Calling the past week rough for Billy would be an understatement, but his team looks extremely top-heavy and risky. The ODB price seems high, but a starting core of him and Murray isn't bad. Adding Michael Thomas and (accidentally) Hilton to them, is unsustainable in terms of fielding a weekly roster. The grade here comes mainly from the fact that, once you established your top four, the rest of your money should have gone to RB. Instead, you spent $3 on a TE that might not start on his own team, and $2 each on a 4th and 5th WR. This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss.
Best Pick: DeMarco Murray for $41
Worst Pick: T.Y. Hilton for $34
Grade: F
Gutman - Foolish Pleasure
This name applies to Gutman taking the both the top QB and the RB. The price was high, but I do think you'll enjoy watching Rodgers and DJ put up points every week. And of all the top-heavy teams, I like the way you supplemented your roster the best, other than likely overpaying for Cooper. Yes, your RB2 situation is bleak right now, but Perine will likely take over at some point, and Lewis/Richard should at least put up a few points until then. Worst case, you can flip one of your Vikings WRs for reinforcements. There may be some rough weeks, but overall this team will be competitive.
Best Pick: Stefon Diggs for $12
Worst Pick: Amari Cooper for $50
Grade: B
Bennett - Thunder Gulch
This was the only weather related horse name, and urban dictionary defines Thunder Gulch as "the gagging sound exerted when a dick is shoved too far down the mouth," so I couldn't resist. Bennett went HUGE for Mike Evans, who I like, but he's not worth $9 more than A.J. Green. Despite that, the rest of this team came together pretty nicely. I don't hate any position group, but outside of Kelce at TE, I see the rest of them as average at best. That's not a terrible place to be, and could lead to beneficial trades, but it also likely doesn't mean it's a playoff team.
Best Pick: Travis Kelce for $21
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $65
Grade: B-
Reap - Sunday Silence
The quieter member of the newly broken up duo will also spend most of his Sundays quietly looking at his roster (a stretch I know, sorry Reap). To start, I love the team name, and I'd love to see it on a chef's hat, but I'm doubting that happens. I don't hate your starting lineup, but I feel like you marginally overpaid for each of them, leaving you pretty much nothing on the bench. I've lived that life before, and when everyone's healthy you can compete with anyone, but once the injuries and byes pile up, it gets hard to break 80 points. I would highly doubt you finish in last place, but I do think this is a bottom half team.
Best Pick: Kyle Rudolph for $5
Worst Pick: Terrell Pryor Sr. for $33
Grade: C+
Overall Grades in Order:
- Ajay - B+
- Kumpf - B+
- Levine - B
- Belfer - B
- Esco - B
- Barnard - B
- Gutman - B
- Zacherman - B-
- Bennett - B-
- Reap - C+
- Weissbard - C+
- Marco - D+
- Alan - D
- BAM - F
Week 1 preview hopefully coming next week. Enjoy the long weekend everyone.
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