I'm not sure if it's the increase in scoring overall that's causing more variance, or if our league is really the have's and the have-nots, but we're really lacking close matchups this year. Esco text me at halftime of the early games on Sunday saying "At least I don't have to check the score any more." And he wasn't wrong, as I had about a 50-point lead from that point on. The same situation basically went on for Ajay, Bennett, and Alan, and the closest matchup was still over 14 points. It seems like there are a few huge performances every week, but other than Gurley, it's hard to guess where they're coming from. I don't know what to do about this situation, but it might make sense for teams to make more trades. If Team A's 4th receiver has a great matchup, but they have a terrible RB2, a trade with Team B even just to get a good lineup in for one week is more appealing than it was in the past. We're less than three weeks from the trade deadline, and I see a lot of unabalanced teams out there, so let's get some movement going.
Trade Grade 6
Gutman receives Randall Cobb
Kumpf receives Nyheim Hines
Speaking of exciting, league-altering trades! Not a lot to say here. I get Mack's handcuff, Gutman gets to forget that he straight up dropped Mack. Gutman gets yet another option for his revolving WR2 position, I get to avoid deciding between Cobb and Allison. If either of us really needs to start one of these guys, something has gone wrong.
Gutman Grade: C
Kumpf Grade: C
Playoff Odds
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
After Week 8:
We have never had a team start 8-0
100% (1/1) of 7-1 teams make the playoffs
100% (8/8) of 6-2 teams make the playoffs
73% (8/11) of 5-3 teams make the playoffs
38% (6/16) of 4-4 teams make the playoffs
8% (1/13) of 3-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 2-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-7 teams make the playoffs
We have never had a team start 0-8
Down goes Weissbard! He was the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and it took Alan as our brown knight to prevent further damage. After just one loss, he's shockingly in danger of losing his lead in the division, though the bye seems safe. Gutman is also in good shape, and despite being barely over .500, my point total should at worst get me the 6th seed. Outside of those four teams, it's all up in the air.
On the flip side, Ajay's absurd D/ST performance gave him a breath of life, but his current roster does not look ready to compete this week, and he's in must-win mode. Reap and Esco join him on life support this week, barely dangling above BAM-land.
Team of the Week - Alan
When you take down a team that was previously 6-0, you get this spot every time. I didn't like Alan's team after the draft, and I don't like it now, but both his floor and ceiling are higher than I expected. Considering he started multiple non-elite tight ends, owned three Buffalo Bills, and started the Colts D (who was hilariously playing said Bills), it's pretty incredible that he got the high score of the week. He's also only a game back of a free-falling Marco in the division, and gets to face a Zeke-less Kumpf team that might want to see Alan's team make the playoffs. Masandiassance Part Two?
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Ajay starting Broncos D/ST
In most weeks, starting a defense that puts up 10 points is considered a win. For Ajay, a performance like that would have been a loss. Instead he won by over 20. Thanks Josh Rosen.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Antonio Callaway over Dion Lewis
I was very high on Sanu last week if he was healthy, and Ridley was out. Only half of those things happened, but I was still on the Sanu train. I was not on the Antonio Callaway train, however, and I have to assume this was a hedge on Sanu being ruled out on Monday? Tough break either way, and the Titans are miserable to watch, but Antonio Callaway costing you the playoffs will be potentially tough to swallow in six weeks.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Bennett vs. Zacherman
This could have been a truly great matchup as Bennett's team is shockingly formidable. However, his roster takes a massive hit in the downgrade from Matty Ice to Flacco on the bye, as well as his Eagles traveling to Jacksonville. On the flip side, Z's Chiefs have to take on a surging Denver D, and while I don't expect that to be a huge issue, it's not easy street. The biggest stakes here are division-related. Both these teams are currently tied for first, and while Z should be safe either way, the bye is a potential concern with a loss. Bennett's range of outcomes is far greater, so this matchup could go a long way towards determining the rest of his season. I don't think things look great.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 4-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/22
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+8) at Texans - Loss
Steelers (-8) vs. Browns - Win
Seahawks (+3) at Lions - Win
Rams (-9) vs. Packers - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2018 Record: 19-15-4 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Minnesota (+3) vs. Indiana - Win
Texas Tech (+4) at Iowa State - Loss
Virginia (-9) vs. North Carolina - Win
Duke (-3) at Pittsburgh - Loss
Kentucky (+7) at Missouri - Win
Washington (-11) at California - Loss
Last Week: 0-6
2018 Record: 26-35-2 (-12.71 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Pelicans (-6) vs. Clippers - Win
Nets (+4.5) at Cavs - Win
Pacers (+3.5) at Spurs - Win
Raptors (-11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Kings (+5) vs. Wizards - Win
Pelicans (+3.5) vs. Jazz - Loss
Spurs (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2018-2019 Record: 9-5 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Fulham (Pick) vs. Bournemouth - Loss
Brighton (Pick) vs. Wolves - Win
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Manchester United (-0.5) vs. Everton - Win
Tottenham (+0.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-14-4 (-6.11 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Leicester City (+120) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-9 (-1.70 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Ajax (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) at Club Brugge - Win
Barcelona (-1) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Atletico Madrid (Pick) at Borussia Dortmund - Loss
Schalke 04 (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.5) vs. FC Porto - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 10-6-2 (+1.59 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Valencia (+115) at Young Boys - Loss
Tottenham (-105) at PSV - Loss
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-4 (-3.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Red Sox (+137) at Dodgers - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018 Record: 33-44 (-4.39 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, October 25, 2018
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Week 6 Recap
We're 6 weeks in and we finally know some stuff! Marco is great at drafting divisions, Esco is terrible, and Levine is perfectly average. I guess that doesn't mean all that much, but at this point it is indisputable. For as many points as have been scored this year, it does seem kind of like we've known the playoff teams since Week 1, and not all that much has changed. We also haven't seen too much money spent on the waiver wire, which might end up looking foolish at the end of the year when we all look like Barnard on draft day in terms of leftover money (and might explain the price for D/ST's on the wire). On the plus side, we've seen almost one trade per week, which is fantastic, and will hopefully keep the pace as we get closer to the trade deadline. We start by looking at only the second deal this year that didn't involve me or Marco...
Trade Grade 5
Ajay receives Sony Michel and Ronald Jones
Belfer receives LeVeon Bell and John Conner
On the surface, I understand why Ajay had to make a move. He's in dire straits, and with the Steelers on a bye, he needed a startable RB. He got one of those in Michel, who is likely a top 10 back moving forward, and while Jones has been an afterthought so far, he's at least a handcuff.
However, from Belfer's perspective one of the following scenarios is likely to happen:
1) Bell comes back in the next couple of weeks, relegates Conner to the bench, and resumes his post as a top 3 fantasy RB.
2) Bell gets traded to an RB-needy team (potentially the Bucs, which would really be a kick in the balls for Ajay), and both Conner and Bell are top 10 fantasy RBs.
3) Bell and Conner split time in Pittsburgh.
Either of the first two scenarios make this trade a huge win for Belfer. Even the third scenario likely makes Bell a starting RB, and Conner potentially flex-worthy. I just don't see the downside for Belf.
Ajay Grade: C
Belfer Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
The underdog story continues! Weissbard is officially the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and has a chance to do the same to the 7-0 barrier. Standing in his way is a less than formidable Alan team, but a brutal Marco/Z stretch awaits Weiss starting next week. At the other end of the spectrum, both Ajay and BAM get the Done Chain officially, but even our 2-4 teams still have a chance based on league history.
The big gap this week is predictably between 4-3 and 3-4, yet none of our 3-3 teams are facing each other. We do have a potential Loser Leaves Town Match, but that has more to do with the division breakdown than the strength of either team. More on that in a minute.
Team of the Week - Esco
Deep into the 4th quarter of MNF, it looked like Esco was about to fall to an essentially eliminated 1-5, while Barnard would improbably take the division lead. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who lit the world on fire and saved the day. After last week's lineup debacle, Esco didn't do too much better this week, and Aaron Jones over Matt Breida may have driven him to suicide if Rodgers didn't take over. He's definitely not out of the woods yet, and his bye-ridden roster takes on the league's top scorer this week, but he got a stay of execution for at least one week.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Reap starting Latavius Murray over Lamar Miller
In hindsight, maybe Reap should have just traded Miller to BAM so we could all see the epic Old Bay snort. Miller is the ultimate frustrating fantasy RB, where he's never someone you feel great about starting, but he's always someone you might regret benching. This week Reap chose right, and got the added benefit of having Lat Murray run wild on Marco's team that was forced to start Isaiah Crowell because Dalvin Cook was hurt. Well done Reaper.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - BAM :(
Back to back weeks of the unhappy face in this section, as BAM's season just fell apart this week. Losing by 1.4 is never fun, but the bench performances of ARob, Duke and Gore make it even worse. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp is banged up, making a sure fire trade win look a little bit more shaky moving forward. It's crazy to say, but a team with Russ, OBJ and Gronk are essentially eliminated 6 weeks in with no missed games between those guys.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Belfer vs. Gutman
Huge divisional matchup alert! Belf doesn't get to bust out his new toy(s) this week, and he loses AB to the bye as well, making this a shell of the team that should be very intriguing down the stretch. On the other side, fatherhood has done nothing to slow down Gutman's team, and he's shockingly undefeated with Mara running his team. The talent edge definitely goes to Gut this week, but with Brees and Mike Thomas running into a tough D in Baltimore, while Baker and Evans engage in a shootout, this will be closer than expected. I never thought I'd say this, but the matchup weirdly comes down to Mohamed Sanu. If he plays and Ridley is out, Belf is favored. If he's out or Ridley plays, then I'm leaning Gutman. Belf can't wait until MNF to make this call, so I'm gonna stick with Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/15
NFL Bets
Bucs (-3) vs. Browns - Push
Dolphins (+3) vs. Lions - Loss
Jets (+4) vs. Vikings - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Patriots - Loss
Chiefs (-6) vs. Bengals - Win
Last Week: 3-0-1
2018 Record: 17-13-4 (+1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Cincinnati (+4) at Temple - Loss
Syracuse (-8) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Minnesota (+4) at Nebraska - Loss
Wake Forest (+11) at Florida State - Loss
Memphis (+10) at Missouri - Loss
Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 23-32-2 (-12.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Magic (+3) vs. Heat - Win
Hornets (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Pelicans (+8) at Rockets - Win
Lakers (+3) at Blazers - Loss
Magic (+3) vs. Hornets - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Warriors - Win
Lakers (+4) vs. Rockets - Loss
2018-2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Watford (+425) at Wolves - Win
Crystal Palace (+350) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-8 (-0.7 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Trade Grade 5
Ajay receives Sony Michel and Ronald Jones
Belfer receives LeVeon Bell and John Conner
On the surface, I understand why Ajay had to make a move. He's in dire straits, and with the Steelers on a bye, he needed a startable RB. He got one of those in Michel, who is likely a top 10 back moving forward, and while Jones has been an afterthought so far, he's at least a handcuff.
However, from Belfer's perspective one of the following scenarios is likely to happen:
1) Bell comes back in the next couple of weeks, relegates Conner to the bench, and resumes his post as a top 3 fantasy RB.
2) Bell gets traded to an RB-needy team (potentially the Bucs, which would really be a kick in the balls for Ajay), and both Conner and Bell are top 10 fantasy RBs.
3) Bell and Conner split time in Pittsburgh.
Either of the first two scenarios make this trade a huge win for Belfer. Even the third scenario likely makes Bell a starting RB, and Conner potentially flex-worthy. I just don't see the downside for Belf.
Ajay Grade: C
Belfer Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
After Week 7:
We have never had a team start 7-0
100% (5/5) of 6-1 teams make the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 5-2 teams make the playoffs
54% (7/13) of 4-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-4 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 2-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams make the playoffs
The underdog story continues! Weissbard is officially the first 6-0 team we've had in the ESPN era, and has a chance to do the same to the 7-0 barrier. Standing in his way is a less than formidable Alan team, but a brutal Marco/Z stretch awaits Weiss starting next week. At the other end of the spectrum, both Ajay and BAM get the Done Chain officially, but even our 2-4 teams still have a chance based on league history.
The big gap this week is predictably between 4-3 and 3-4, yet none of our 3-3 teams are facing each other. We do have a potential Loser Leaves Town Match, but that has more to do with the division breakdown than the strength of either team. More on that in a minute.
Team of the Week - Esco
Deep into the 4th quarter of MNF, it looked like Esco was about to fall to an essentially eliminated 1-5, while Barnard would improbably take the division lead. Enter Aaron Rodgers, who lit the world on fire and saved the day. After last week's lineup debacle, Esco didn't do too much better this week, and Aaron Jones over Matt Breida may have driven him to suicide if Rodgers didn't take over. He's definitely not out of the woods yet, and his bye-ridden roster takes on the league's top scorer this week, but he got a stay of execution for at least one week.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Reap starting Latavius Murray over Lamar Miller
In hindsight, maybe Reap should have just traded Miller to BAM so we could all see the epic Old Bay snort. Miller is the ultimate frustrating fantasy RB, where he's never someone you feel great about starting, but he's always someone you might regret benching. This week Reap chose right, and got the added benefit of having Lat Murray run wild on Marco's team that was forced to start Isaiah Crowell because Dalvin Cook was hurt. Well done Reaper.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - BAM :(
Back to back weeks of the unhappy face in this section, as BAM's season just fell apart this week. Losing by 1.4 is never fun, but the bench performances of ARob, Duke and Gore make it even worse. To add injury to insult, Cooper Kupp is banged up, making a sure fire trade win look a little bit more shaky moving forward. It's crazy to say, but a team with Russ, OBJ and Gronk are essentially eliminated 6 weeks in with no missed games between those guys.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Belfer vs. Gutman
Huge divisional matchup alert! Belf doesn't get to bust out his new toy(s) this week, and he loses AB to the bye as well, making this a shell of the team that should be very intriguing down the stretch. On the other side, fatherhood has done nothing to slow down Gutman's team, and he's shockingly undefeated with Mara running his team. The talent edge definitely goes to Gut this week, but with Brees and Mike Thomas running into a tough D in Baltimore, while Baker and Evans engage in a shootout, this will be closer than expected. I never thought I'd say this, but the matchup weirdly comes down to Mohamed Sanu. If he plays and Ridley is out, Belf is favored. If he's out or Ridley plays, then I'm leaning Gutman. Belf can't wait until MNF to make this call, so I'm gonna stick with Mara.
Pick: Gutman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 3-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/15
NFL Bets
Bucs (-3) vs. Browns - Push
Dolphins (+3) vs. Lions - Loss
Jets (+4) vs. Vikings - Loss
Bears (+3) vs. Patriots - Loss
Chiefs (-6) vs. Bengals - Win
Last Week: 3-0-1
2018 Record: 17-13-4 (+1.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Cincinnati (+4) at Temple - Loss
Syracuse (-8) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Minnesota (+4) at Nebraska - Loss
Wake Forest (+11) at Florida State - Loss
Memphis (+10) at Missouri - Loss
Kentucky (-11) vs. Vanderbilt - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2018 Record: 23-32-2 (-12.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Magic (+3) vs. Heat - Win
Hornets (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Pelicans (+8) at Rockets - Win
Lakers (+3) at Blazers - Loss
Magic (+3) vs. Hornets - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Warriors - Win
Lakers (+4) vs. Rockets - Loss
2018-2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.56 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NBA Win Total Bets
Hawks over 23.5
Celtics under 59
Nets over 32
Hornets over 35.5
Mavs under 35.5
Warriors under 62.5
Rockets under 56.5
Pacers under 47.5
Lakers under 48.5
Wolves over 41.5
Magic over 31
Sixers under 53.5
Spurs under 43.5
Jazz over 49.5
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Watford (+425) at Wolves - Win
Crystal Palace (+350) at Everton - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 3-8 (-0.7 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Week 5 Recap
After 5 weeks, things have never been weirder in FALAFEL. Of our 7 teams that are 1-4 or 2-3, all of them except for Bennett have a Chef's Coat. On the flip side, the 7 teams above .500 (other than Levine), have never tasted fantasy glory. This is personified by Fireball Dan, who is just the third team in the last 6 years to hit 5-0 despite flirting with the Long Line for the last few years. Those teams have never missed the playoffs, so the pressure is on our diminutive leader to not fuck this all up. The rest of us are a jumble of mediocrity, and other than Marco, the division races will be crazy and/or sad. We're nearly halfway through the year, and we may know less about this league than when we left Baltimore.
Trade Grade 4
Esco receives Chris Godwin and Ito Smith
Marco receives Isaiah Crowell and Joe Flacco
Not the most exciting trade in the world, but I grade them all. I have to say I don't really understand this for Marco. He's set at RB, with a clear need for reliable WR starters. I'm not saying Godwin filled that need, but having an option at receiver is better than not having one. Crowell is likely the best player in the deal, which is presumably why Marco pulled the trigger, but I would expect another trade in his future. For Esco, this was about removing a frustrating player more than anything else. His season is mostly lost, so getting rid of a problematic decision can be cathartic in a way. Godwin immediately becomes a flex option for him, and Ito provides some Freeman insurance. This trade likely will have no impact on the results of this season, but I like it a little bit more for Esco.
Esco Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C+
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
These numbers are extremely interesting this week, but it's important to remember that we changed our playoff qualification standards last year, so the potential for outliers is higher than it seems. That said, Weissbard has the chance to become the first 6-0 team in the ESPN era (Zacherman started something like 11-0 back in 2010, and I believe Ajay went undefeated until the finals in the Cortesian Era). Standing in his way is my team, fresh off a debilitating loss to Barnard's sorry excuse for a team, but still leading the league in scoring. That's not the matchup of the week (more on that in a minute), but it has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the season.
This week will be huge for any team with either 3 or 1 wins, as it sets the 3-win teams up for the playoffs, and keeps a glimmer of hope for the 1-win teams. We'll likely be putting the Done Chain on at least one team this week (Spoiler Alert: It's Reap).
Team of the Week - Belfer
I have to say, I was terrified at the thought of Z going undefeated. Of our previously 0-loss teams, his seemed the most complete, and immune to a one-week slump. And while he still put up 110, it wasn't enough to stop The Ghost of Nick Joseph. The phenomenally named and avatared Team Belfer showed up big and saved this league from being crushed under a pinball machine. The fact that he did so with his starting WR and TE on a bye is even more impressive. I don't know that I see Belf as a playoff team, but a lineup of Baker/Ingram/Sony/Evans/AB/Burton is nothing to scoff at. He's a flex away from being a true threat.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Mohamed Sanu Sr. over Mike Williams
I have to say I disagreed with this move, but it paid off in spades for our Team of the Week. Honorable mention goes to Barnard for starting Brady over Goff, but lets be real, every time the Pats score Barnard jerks off to a screenshot of Tom vs. Time with his face photoshopped over Brady's son's face during their epic kiss.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco :(
I'm not saying starting Westbrook over Drake or Crowell was a dumb move, but watching how things turned out I can't help but think his team is just cursed this year. As we all saw this week, he doesn't even really have trade options outside of maybe Rodgers? This went from a frisky deep team to a lost season before any of us even realized there was a problem.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Zacherman vs. Levine
There will be fireworks in the Kumpf vs. Weiss matchup, but the two of us are already leading our divisions and have the two highest point totals by a long shot. We're both incredibly likely to make the playoffs. Levine and Z are right there as well, but the loser of this matchup could be in danger of falling into the fringe playoff category. From a bye perspective, Levine losing Stafford and replacing him with Mariota might be enough to swing things to Z from the start. But I see a massive Julio game coming and Levine does get last licks with Adams, so it likely comes down to SNF. If Belichick can't solve Mahomes and Co., then Z likely gets 60+ from that game, which should be enough to give him the win.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/8
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bears - Win
Chargers (-1) at Browns - Win
Falcons (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots - Push
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 16-10-3 (+3.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU - Win
Florida (-7) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Northwestern (-4) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Penn State (-13) vs. Michigan State - Loss
Washington (-3) at Oregon - Loss
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina - Loss
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 23-26-2 (-6.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also put some money on Oklahoma to win the National Championship at +4500.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Trade Grade 4
Esco receives Chris Godwin and Ito Smith
Marco receives Isaiah Crowell and Joe Flacco
Not the most exciting trade in the world, but I grade them all. I have to say I don't really understand this for Marco. He's set at RB, with a clear need for reliable WR starters. I'm not saying Godwin filled that need, but having an option at receiver is better than not having one. Crowell is likely the best player in the deal, which is presumably why Marco pulled the trigger, but I would expect another trade in his future. For Esco, this was about removing a frustrating player more than anything else. His season is mostly lost, so getting rid of a problematic decision can be cathartic in a way. Godwin immediately becomes a flex option for him, and Ito provides some Freeman insurance. This trade likely will have no impact on the results of this season, but I like it a little bit more for Esco.
Esco Grade: B-
Marco Grade: C+
Playoff Odds
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
After Week 6:
We have never had a team start 6-0
100% (6/6) of 5-1 teams make the playoffs
69% (11/16) of 4-2 teams make the playoffs
25% (4/16) of 3-3 teams make the playoffs
30% (3/10) of 2-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-5 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2 ) of 0-6 teams make the playoffs
These numbers are extremely interesting this week, but it's important to remember that we changed our playoff qualification standards last year, so the potential for outliers is higher than it seems. That said, Weissbard has the chance to become the first 6-0 team in the ESPN era (Zacherman started something like 11-0 back in 2010, and I believe Ajay went undefeated until the finals in the Cortesian Era). Standing in his way is my team, fresh off a debilitating loss to Barnard's sorry excuse for a team, but still leading the league in scoring. That's not the matchup of the week (more on that in a minute), but it has the potential to set the tone for the rest of the season.
This week will be huge for any team with either 3 or 1 wins, as it sets the 3-win teams up for the playoffs, and keeps a glimmer of hope for the 1-win teams. We'll likely be putting the Done Chain on at least one team this week (Spoiler Alert: It's Reap).
Team of the Week - Belfer
I have to say, I was terrified at the thought of Z going undefeated. Of our previously 0-loss teams, his seemed the most complete, and immune to a one-week slump. And while he still put up 110, it wasn't enough to stop The Ghost of Nick Joseph. The phenomenally named and avatared Team Belfer showed up big and saved this league from being crushed under a pinball machine. The fact that he did so with his starting WR and TE on a bye is even more impressive. I don't know that I see Belf as a playoff team, but a lineup of Baker/Ingram/Sony/Evans/AB/Burton is nothing to scoff at. He's a flex away from being a true threat.
Best Lineup Move of the Week - Belfer starting Mohamed Sanu Sr. over Mike Williams
I have to say I disagreed with this move, but it paid off in spades for our Team of the Week. Honorable mention goes to Barnard for starting Brady over Goff, but lets be real, every time the Pats score Barnard jerks off to a screenshot of Tom vs. Time with his face photoshopped over Brady's son's face during their epic kiss.
Worst Lineup Move of the Week - Esco :(
I'm not saying starting Westbrook over Drake or Crowell was a dumb move, but watching how things turned out I can't help but think his team is just cursed this year. As we all saw this week, he doesn't even really have trade options outside of maybe Rodgers? This went from a frisky deep team to a lost season before any of us even realized there was a problem.
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Zacherman vs. Levine
There will be fireworks in the Kumpf vs. Weiss matchup, but the two of us are already leading our divisions and have the two highest point totals by a long shot. We're both incredibly likely to make the playoffs. Levine and Z are right there as well, but the loser of this matchup could be in danger of falling into the fringe playoff category. From a bye perspective, Levine losing Stafford and replacing him with Mariota might be enough to swing things to Z from the start. But I see a massive Julio game coming and Levine does get last licks with Adams, so it likely comes down to SNF. If Belichick can't solve Mahomes and Co., then Z likely gets 60+ from that game, which should be enough to give him the win.
Pick: Zacherman
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 2-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/8
NFL Bets
Dolphins (+3) vs. Bears - Win
Chargers (-1) at Browns - Win
Falcons (-3) vs. Bucs - Win
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots - Push
Last Week: 2-3
2018 Record: 16-10-3 (+3.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Texas Tech (+7) at TCU - Win
Florida (-7) vs. Vanderbilt - Win
Northwestern (-4) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Penn State (-13) vs. Michigan State - Loss
Washington (-3) at Oregon - Loss
Virginia Tech (-6) at North Carolina - Loss
Last Week: 4-4-1
2018 Record: 23-26-2 (-6.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
I also put some money on Oklahoma to win the National Championship at +4500.
EPL Bets (Spread)
Last Week: 1-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Last Week 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
Thursday, October 4, 2018
Week 4 Recap
Everything is coming up Kumpf. In the last week, I set the all-time scoring record for our league, took a lead in Levine's still unnamed division, extended my points scored lead to over 10ppg more than second place, and got a job (After sending out 130 applications and doing 60 interviews. Kill me.). But as quickly as everything has come together, it can all fall apart this weekend. Losing to Barnard would be an unspeakable travesty, and coming on the same weekend that UT plays Oklahoma, Liverpool plays Man City, and the Yankees play the Red Sox, my mood come Monday could be vastly different than it is right now. Hopefully there's nothing I can do to lose the job, but everything else could easily go to shit.
Trade Grade 3
Kumpf receives Jarvis Landry and Wendell Smallwood
BAM receives Cooper Kupp and Javorius Allen
Before even talking about the specifics, BAM making a trade is notable in and of itself. I believe this is their first trade as a duo, and I will continue to believe this until proven otherwise. Unlike most trades, this one had no negotiation at all, as I sent out the offer on Thursday morning, and it was accepted as Cooper Kupp was running train all over the Vikings secondary. How you view this trade on my side depends on how you view Kupp's future. Will he continue his dominance, or will the Rams' socialist offense keep him relatively in check moving forward? I like Kupp, but I prefer the high floor of Juice, especially in Baker's offense. From BAM's perspective, they get at worst a slight downgrade at WR in exchange for what is sadly an upgrade at RB. That's a win for them and a TBD for me.
Kumpf Grade: B-
BAM Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
We've already doubled the number of 4-0 teams in this league since 2012, and there's a decent shot that we do the same with 5-0 teams. Zacherman should make quick work of a struggling Belfer, and while Marco and Fireball Dan have tougher matchups in Levine and Bennett, at least one of them should emerge unscathed. On the flip side, BAM and Reap are on the verge of elimination and could double our 0-5 teams since 2012.
This week is unsurprisingly the most important for the 2-2 teams. There is a clear top 4 in the league, so two of Levine, Gutman, Bennett should have a leg up on the playoffs with a win this week, while a Barnard win would just be a sign of the apocalypse.
Team of the Week - Kumpf
Again, hate putting myself here, but when you set the all-time scoring record by over 5 points, you're the team of the week.
No matchups were within like 20 points this week, so lineup decisions were irrelevant. In lieu of these sections, I'll point out that Reap is in line for the Christmas Card right now with 66.7 points in Week 3 (He also has the second lowest total. Be better Reap).
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Marco vs. Levine
This is such a fun matchup. Marco's team could not be more top heavy, especially with Godwin on the bye, while Levine has depth almost to a fault. ESPN likes Marco's week way more than I do, especially with the Vikings playing in Philly. Kamara and Gordon could easily break 60 between them, but the rest of the team may not, and the winner here should be in the 120s. To cap it all off, Marco needs to root for Kamara and against AP on MNF, which is just fantastic. Assuming Levine's injury situations work themselves out, I'm going to go ahead and #Kurse my rival.
Pick: Levine
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/1
NFL Bets
Ravens (-3) at Browns - Loss
Chiefs (-3) vs. Jaguars - Win
Panthers (-7) vs. Giants - Loss
Chargers (-4) vs. Raiders - Win
Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings - Loss
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018 Record: 13-10-2 (+1.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Bets Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
The Bad
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (currently 32nd, 171 yards behind leader)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 34th, 230 yards behind leader)
NCAA Football Bets
Georgia Tech (-4) at Louisville - Win
Maryland (+18) at Michigan - Loss
Missouri (+1) at South Carolina - Loss
Northwestern (+11) at Michigan State - Win
Syracuse (-4) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Iowa (-7) at Minnesota - Win
Arizona State (+3) at Colorado - Loss
Kentucky (+6) at Texas A&M - Push
Notre Dame (-6) at Virginia Tech - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 21-22-2 (-4.03 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Leicester (-0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Fulham (+1) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Crystal Palace (+185) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Juventus (-2) vs. Young Boys - Win
AEK Athens (+0.5) vs. Benfica - Loss
Tottenham +0.5) vs. Barcelona - Loss
Napoli (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Inter Milan (Pick) at PSV - Win
Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Roma (-300) vs. Victoria Plzen - Win
Real Madrid (-170) at CSKA Moscow - Loss
Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
MLB Win Totals
D-Backs under 85.5 - Win
Orioles over 73 - Loss
Cubs under 94.5 - Loss
Rockies under 82 - Loss
Astros over 96.5 - Win
Royals under 71.5 - Win
Angels under 84.5 - Win
Dodgers under 96.5 - Win
Brewers under 84.5 - Loss
Yankees over 94.5 - Win
A's over 74.5 - Win
Phillies over 75.5 - Win
Pirates over 73 - Win
Padres over 69.5 - Loss
Rays over 77.5 - Win
Blue Jays over 81 - Loss
Nationals under 92.5 - Win
I won 11/17 bets, at $10 per bet gave me a profit of $40 total. My overall O/U projections went 16/29. I still have the Indians to win the World Series at +750, and will likely hedge if they advance to the LCS.
Trade Grade 3
Kumpf receives Jarvis Landry and Wendell Smallwood
BAM receives Cooper Kupp and Javorius Allen
Before even talking about the specifics, BAM making a trade is notable in and of itself. I believe this is their first trade as a duo, and I will continue to believe this until proven otherwise. Unlike most trades, this one had no negotiation at all, as I sent out the offer on Thursday morning, and it was accepted as Cooper Kupp was running train all over the Vikings secondary. How you view this trade on my side depends on how you view Kupp's future. Will he continue his dominance, or will the Rams' socialist offense keep him relatively in check moving forward? I like Kupp, but I prefer the high floor of Juice, especially in Baker's offense. From BAM's perspective, they get at worst a slight downgrade at WR in exchange for what is sadly an upgrade at RB. That's a win for them and a TBD for me.
Kumpf Grade: B-
BAM Grade: A
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams make the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams make the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams make the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams make the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams make the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams make the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams make the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams make the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams make the playoffs
11% (1/9) of 1-4 teams make the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams make the playoffs
We've already doubled the number of 4-0 teams in this league since 2012, and there's a decent shot that we do the same with 5-0 teams. Zacherman should make quick work of a struggling Belfer, and while Marco and Fireball Dan have tougher matchups in Levine and Bennett, at least one of them should emerge unscathed. On the flip side, BAM and Reap are on the verge of elimination and could double our 0-5 teams since 2012.
This week is unsurprisingly the most important for the 2-2 teams. There is a clear top 4 in the league, so two of Levine, Gutman, Bennett should have a leg up on the playoffs with a win this week, while a Barnard win would just be a sign of the apocalypse.
Team of the Week - Kumpf
Again, hate putting myself here, but when you set the all-time scoring record by over 5 points, you're the team of the week.
No matchups were within like 20 points this week, so lineup decisions were irrelevant. In lieu of these sections, I'll point out that Reap is in line for the Christmas Card right now with 66.7 points in Week 3 (He also has the second lowest total. Be better Reap).
Biggest Matchup of the Week - Marco vs. Levine
This is such a fun matchup. Marco's team could not be more top heavy, especially with Godwin on the bye, while Levine has depth almost to a fault. ESPN likes Marco's week way more than I do, especially with the Vikings playing in Philly. Kamara and Gordon could easily break 60 between them, but the rest of the team may not, and the winner here should be in the 120s. To cap it all off, Marco needs to root for Kamara and against AP on MNF, which is just fantastic. Assuming Levine's injury situations work themselves out, I'm going to go ahead and #Kurse my rival.
Pick: Levine
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner - Week of 10/1
NFL Bets
Ravens (-3) at Browns - Loss
Chiefs (-3) vs. Jaguars - Win
Panthers (-7) vs. Giants - Loss
Chargers (-4) vs. Raiders - Win
Eagles (-3) vs. Vikings - Loss
Last Week: 2-2-1
2018 Record: 13-10-2 (+1.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NFL Prop Bets Check-in
The Good
Packers under 10 wins
Chargers under 9.5 wins
Dolphins over 6.5 wins
Saints over 9.5 wins
Giants under 7 wins
Raiders under 7.5 wins
49ers under 8.5 wins
Titans over 8 wins
The Bad
Panthers under 9 wins
Browns over 5.5 wins
Colts over 6.5 wins
Jaguars under 9 wins
Patriots over 11 wins
The Ugly
Cardinals over 5.5 wins
Falcons to win the Super Bowl
Texans to win the Super Bowl
Jimmy G to lead the league in passing (LOL)
Jay Ajayi to lead the league in rushing (currently 32nd, 171 yards behind leader)
Antonio Brown to lead the league in receiving (currently 34th, 230 yards behind leader)
NCAA Football Bets
Georgia Tech (-4) at Louisville - Win
Maryland (+18) at Michigan - Loss
Missouri (+1) at South Carolina - Loss
Northwestern (+11) at Michigan State - Win
Syracuse (-4) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Iowa (-7) at Minnesota - Win
Arizona State (+3) at Colorado - Loss
Kentucky (+6) at Texas A&M - Push
Notre Dame (-6) at Virginia Tech - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2018 Record: 21-22-2 (-4.03 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Brighton (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Leicester (-0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Fulham (+1) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-11-4 (-6.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Crystal Palace (+185) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-7 (-3.95 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Juventus (-2) vs. Young Boys - Win
AEK Athens (+0.5) vs. Benfica - Loss
Tottenham +0.5) vs. Barcelona - Loss
Napoli (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Inter Milan (Pick) at PSV - Win
Last Week: 4-1-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 7-3-1 (+2.36 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Roma (-300) vs. Victoria Plzen - Win
Real Madrid (-170) at CSKA Moscow - Loss
Last Week 0-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-1.67 units)
MLB Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 1-2
2018 Record: 32-44 (-5.76 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)
MLB Win Totals
D-Backs under 85.5 - Win
Orioles over 73 - Loss
Cubs under 94.5 - Loss
Rockies under 82 - Loss
Astros over 96.5 - Win
Royals under 71.5 - Win
Angels under 84.5 - Win
Dodgers under 96.5 - Win
Brewers under 84.5 - Loss
Yankees over 94.5 - Win
A's over 74.5 - Win
Phillies over 75.5 - Win
Pirates over 73 - Win
Padres over 69.5 - Loss
Rays over 77.5 - Win
Blue Jays over 81 - Loss
Nationals under 92.5 - Win
I won 11/17 bets, at $10 per bet gave me a profit of $40 total. My overall O/U projections went 16/29. I still have the Indians to win the World Series at +750, and will likely hedge if they advance to the LCS.
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