It's been a relatively quiet year on the blog for a number of reasons, but that won't stop me from putting together a last minute preview for one of the more unlikely Stevens Bowls in recent memory. While this season will always be remembered for an epic Barnard collapse, that doesn't really separate it from a number of other years, so let's focus on the question of which testicular team name will end up on a piece of chef's clothing.
Alan! Mejia! Margot! Bennett! It's the Stevens Bowl XIV!
Before jumping into the preview, let's take a look at how these teams were evaluated post-draft AKA the last time this blog got any traffic:
Alan was given a C+, tied for the 7th best grade. I was a fan of his Fat Lenny pick, and while that was a total disaster most of the season, it paid off to perfection last week and I stand by my assessment. I also appreciated Alan's strategy of just picking the guys he wanted. This paid off in spades when his guys were healthy, but losing Lamar, Goedert, and Keenan for long periods of time really limited this team's consistency. CMC eventually lived up to his draft price, and Goff has been a hell of a Lamar replacement, but injuries are the main reason this team was lurking under the radar all season.
BMO was given a C, tied for the 9th best grade. I called out Javonte as his best pick and we know what happened there, but I also said that Devonta Smith was probably the worst pick in the draft, edging out Josh Allen. There is a lot to be said about the Josh side of that sentence, but let's look back at Devonta. He was drafted for $15, making him the 22nd most expensive WR during the draft. Through 17 weeks, he has been WR10 on overall points and WR15 on points per game. I stand corrected! BMO is in the Stevens Bowl primarily because their starting lineup has been incredibly healthy all season, but Devonta becoming a bargain played a role that I did not see coming.
Let's get to the preview.
Stevens Bowl XIV - Alan vs. BMO
Quarterback
Mahomes is going to be the MVP and has had potentially his best season yet, without Reek no less. On the flip side, Jared Goff went from a likely cap casualty to someone who will continue to get paid outrageous amounts of money to win less than half of his games. This one obviously goes to BMO, but with a Denver D that randomly steps up, and a Bears team that is just trying to end the season, it's not a huge edge at all.
Slight Edge: BMO
Runningbacks
This is one of the more standard matchups. Alan has the obvious best RB, but BMO's duo are not far behind. And then Alan has Fat Lenny. Lenny served his purpose last week, and even though the Bucs need a win to clinch the division, the other three teams have something to play for as well. I expect CMC to flirt with 30, but he could easily be matched by Dalvin and/or Rhamondre. This is a really tough one, but I would feel dumb betting against McCaffrey right now.
Slight Edge: Alan
Wide Receivers
This is where the matchup will be decided. All six players here have relatively high ceilings but floors of zero, due to injury or underperformance. How Alan survived the TNF debacle from Garrett and Zay last week is something only Barnard can explain, and Keenan is a walking hamstring pull. Bennett has a more interesting situation. Devonta is his safest option, as DK will likely be swarmed by the Jets strong CB duo, and then there's Terry. It's been well documented how Wentz absolutely hates throwing Terry the ball. I could see him trying to force the issue this week, or continuing to avoid passing to his best WR. Too many factors here to make a strong prediction.
Edge: Even
Tight End
This position usually comes down to which player scores, and while that's likely the case here, Alan has a real weapon in Goedert. He was only targeted three times in his return from injury, and I'm not sure how much Philly will want to push him with the division mostly wrapped up. Either way, he's a better option than Njoku, but the range of outcomes is large.
Edge: Alan
D/ST
As weird as it sounds, San Fran's D may be the single biggest reason Alan is back in the Stevens Bowl. They haven't been dropping 20+ point weeks with multiple TDs, but in the last six weeks, they have only failed to hit double figures once (last week against Barnard, which only he can explain). Bennett is rolling with the Jags against the Texans which makes sense, but there is a chance that Jacksonville either sits some guys or takes their feet off the gas with essentially nothing to play for. Still the right play, but the floor is lower than the Niners facing Jarrett Stidham
Edge: Alan
Pick
I still think that WR performance determines the outcome here, not only because they make up almost half the players in the matchup, but because their specific situations are so variable. In scheduling news, neither team having anyone going on TNF, SNF, or MNF means that this thing will be wrapped up before dinnertime on Sunday. I tend to value true team management in situations like this, and while BMO drafted well, you can only rely on that draft for so long (the semi-finals in Barnard's case). Alan's moves for Zay Jones and Jared Goff didn't seem like much at the time, but they will likely be key drivers on the last leg of the Masandiassance 2.0. Alan in play indeed.
Pick: Alan
