Week 7 Recap

With the move to a 14-game Regular Season, we're officially at the halfway point for the first time ever. I want to start by looking at the Playoff Picture if the season ended today:

1. Billy - Division Leader - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1- Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Leader
4. Barnard - Division Leader
5. Alan - Wild Card 2
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

This list does not include some top point scorers in Marco (5th), Levine (6th), or Zacherman (7th), but does include Alan (8th) and Weissbard (9th). This is not unheard of, as those teams are separated by less than 10ppg. The bigger concern for Marco/Levine/Z is that they are are 17-30 points behind AGD right now, and I consider AGD to be the best of that group, so the gap should theoretically only increase. So if we're looking a straight playoff odds, I would actually give Esco and Mejia a better chance of making the playoffs as things stand now, despite their far inferior rosters, because either of them could win their division with another couple lucky breaks.

Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Alex Collins and Henry Ruggs
Weissbard receives Chuba Hubbard and Justin Jackson

Tradin' Dan strikes again! Since Draft Day, it's been obvious that Weissbard would need to make a move to get Chuba. CMC is too valuable, and too injury prone, so his handcuff was arguably the most valuable in the league (though not nearly as talented as guys like Mattison or Pollard) . On the flip side, Barnard has been trying to get Ruggs on his roster since he first saw his Madden speed score. On paper, this was a pretty even trade when talking pure value, and potentially even a win for Barnard.

This is not on paper. Barnard has a legitimate contending roster outside of his massive question mark at RB2. He is stacked at WR, and even has some reinforcements available with Michaels Thomas and Gallup potentially flex options if/when they get healthy. He should be spending all of his resources trying to fill that RB2 slot, which I thought he understood by executing a smart Miles Sanders trade with Alan. Instead, he traded away Chuba, who is a no-doubt starter when CMC is hurt (which he...is) for Collins, a timeshare RB for a currently terrible offense who's share of the time is only going to shrink, and Ruggs, who theoretically should never see his starting lineup. If Barnard thinks Collins is an every week starter, then while I disagree, there is at least some logic there. If Ruggs played any part in his accepting this trade, then I question how I ever had him 1st in the Power Rankings.

Weissbard did a good bit of business, locking down the Carolina and Washington backfields. Not flashy, and there are still massive concerns with this roster, but at 6-1 he can afford to play it safe and hope to fill his WR and TE holes with streaming and potentially a QB trade.

Also Barnard now has to change his team name.

Grades:
Barnard: C
Weissbard: B+ 

Week 7 Power Rankings

We still have a few weeks before the Trade Deadline, so rather than go right to the mock trades this week, I'm going to take the easy way out and break the league into tiers based solely on roster quality now and moving forward. Yes, the Power Rankings do this somewhat on their own, but I'm still catching up from class last weekend and this saves me time. In terms of trades, these tiers can be considered Buyers, Sellers, and TBD.

Tier 1 - The Current Contenders
1. AGD (Last Week: 4th)
2. Mejia (Last Week: 2nd)
3. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 
4. Barnard (Last Week: 1st) 
5. Levine (Last Week: 5th) 
6. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th) 

Some of these are obvious. Billy's team looks very legit right now, Barnard's ceiling is high as long as Mahomes is healthy and apparently not facing the Titans, and AGD and me are hovering around .500 despite a Points Scored performance that should lead to better results down the road. The "hot takes" here are the inclusion of Levine and mostly Mejia, and the absence of Weissbard. I'll get into Fraudbard in the section below, but I am willing to guarantee that either Levine or Mejia makes the playoffs. 

Levine's deep team can compete in any given week, but the key to his future prospects remains his tradeability. As anyone who has tried to negotiate a trade with Billy can attest, when you have too many studs, it's kind of hard to make a fair trade. Levine has a TON of mediocre yet startable players that can lead to several iterations of workable trades. I know it's never fun to negotiate with Levine, as he continually runs his mouth on the listserve and in the GroupMe, but if he can swing a power move in the next two weeks, he will move up this list fast.

As for Mejia, he simply has above average talent everywhere but WR2 and Flex, and he's really the only team that can say that. If you're going to be weak anywhere, streaming your WR2 and Flex is the place you'd want to be. And while his co-manager may be actively damaging their prospects, I still have a weird amount of faith in this Mejia roster.

Tier 2 - Hanging Around
7. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th) 
8. Nick (Last Week: 9th) 
9. Weissbard (Last Week: 7th) 
10. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

Lots going on in this tier. You have the defending champ who is currently tied for the best record in the league, as well as a perpetually snakebitten NiJo team. Of the four,  Z is definitely the closest to contention. His record is somehow second from the bottom, but he's got an above average roster and room to improve as long as Davante doesn't give the whole team COVID. Marco was my preseason pick, but he seems to have been #Kursed from the start, with a slew of RB injuries and WFT-related Karma continually biting him in the ass.

As for Weissbard, I mean how is this team 6-1? He lost CMC, he lost Russ (which hugely impacted DK), he's been dealing with a diminished Gibson, and even Dawson Knox, his previous best pickup, is now hurt. I don't think this team deserves its record in its current state, however, those wins are banked and there is a path to actual contention. If everyone gets healthy, I'd put them at the bottom of the tier above. That's obviously not guaranteed, and given the Russ timeline, there may need to be a trade decision made before he returns. I'm saving any official mock trades for another week, but Russ/Gibson/McKissic for Najee Harris would be a pretty fun challenge trade between our 6-1 teams.

Tier 3 - Blow It Up
11. Gutman (Last Week: 11th) 
12. Ajay (Last Week: 10th) 
13. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 
14. Alan (Last Week: 12th) 

In some ways, these teams are the most fun. Esco and Alan are actually above .500 right now, but that is fool's gold when you look at their points scored, points against, and most importantly, their rosters. Alan has a chance to rebound if Kareem Hunt comes back as the RB1 in Cleveland, but as it stands now, he has only three healthy players that would start on most teams. Esco's squad has rallied out of the basement thanks to the continued excellence of Kyler, the emergence of D'Andre Swift, RB1, and a shrewd Ricky Seals-Jones pickup. His ceiling is still probably the lowest in the league, but if Kyler stays healthy he's both the most terrifying player to face in the league, as well as the most intriguing trade asset out there.

Gutman and Ajay have equally poor teams, and they're a lot less fun. I still don't think Gutman's roster is bad (and he was a borderline Hanging Around team), but they just have not lived up to expectations. If pretty much everyone on the roster only performs at 60-75% of what they're capable of, it's easy to have a lost season. And as for Ajay, the dual TE experiment predictably crashed and burned, but he's done a decent job of recovering. At 1-6, he doesn't really have a path to the playoffs, but we'll always have the Eli Mitchell bid.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Kumpf

I hate putting myself in MotW, especially when I don't have confidence in my team, and especially when half my starting lineup (aka the Ravens) is on bye, but this was the obvious choice. Billy is down a QB, but Matty Ice has looked just as good, if not better, than Carr the last couple of weeks. 

This matchup will likely be determined by potential blowouts. Will the Rams keep feeding Kupp if they're up 30 at half over Houston? Will Corey Davis go off with Mike "Walter" White or Flacco throwing him the ball on every down? Is starting multiple Bengals RBs a new low for me?

At full strength, I think our teams are pretty even on paper. But between the Ravens being on bye, and the matchups in general, I don't think I can hang this week.

Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 3-4
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 6 Recap

Another class week for me means pared down rankings once again. 

Last week, three of the bottom four teams in the rankings won, yet another sign that this is the year of parity (and clearly not that these rankings are flawed in any way). That leaves 11/14 teams between 4-2 and 2-4, which is slightly more than average, but of the outlier teams, only Billy truly deserves it. Weissbard is 9th in scoring, so while I generally like his roster, he's allowed over 7ppg less than any other team and over 22ppg more than Gutman. That means that on average, Gutman faces an opposing roster + Matt Stafford compared to what Weissbard faces. On the other side, Ajay may not be a top squad, but he's scored only 12 points less than Weissbard on the season, yet sits 4 games worse in the standings. This should all somewhat even out over the next 8 regular season weeks, but those wins (and losses) are banked.

Side Note: Of course Weissbard gets to face Alan this week, with the Bills on bye, Hunt on IR, Baker injured meaning Odell isn't startable, and something called Dwayne Washington now on the roster thanks to an egregious $25 bid. Miles Sanders looks pretty good right now doesn't he?

Before jumping into the rankings, I do want to look at the playoff picture if the season ended today:

1. Billy - Division Leader - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1- Bye
3. Barnard - Division Leader
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Mejia - Division Leader
6. Marco - NiJo Spot

That currently leaves Levine (4th) and me (5th) as top five scoring teams that would not make the playoffs. It's still a long season, but the race for the NiJo spot might be more entertaining than the race for the Byes.

Trade Grade 6
Mejia receives Demetric Felton
Weissbard receives Tua Tagovailoa

It took six weeks but we finally get the Weissbard QB trade we all expec...huh? Weissbard trading for a QB? Didn't see that coming two weeks ago. But I guess with the Russ injury, the Herbert bye, and the available QBs on the wire, trading some RB depth was the route he went. Given his 5-1 record, I would probably value Felton's lottery ticket value over a one-week slight QB upgrade over the waiver options, but if you were going to drop Felton for a QB anyway, Tua has the best matchup.

On Mejia's side, this was a good bit of business in the opposite direction, giving up a bye-week QB for an RB lotto ticket. Nothing too exciting yet, but if D'Ernest goes to the hospital, it will be time for Demetric system.

Grades:
Mejia: B+
Weissbard: B-

On to the rankings and MotW, and starting next week we get into Trade Szn.

Week 6 Power Rankings

1. Barnard (Last Week: 4th) 

2. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

3. Billy (Last Week: 6th)

4. AGD (Last Week: 2nd)

5. Levine (Last Week: 3rd)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 7th)

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

8. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)

9. Nick (Last Week: 8th)

10. Ajay (Last Week: 10th)

11. Gutman (Last Week: 12th)

12. Alan (Last Week: 13th)

13. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Billy

Some massive shake-ups in the rankings this week (the rise of Mejia, the fall of Weissbard and Marco), but nothing as surprising as Barnard topping the list for the first time ever. That's what happens when CMC goes on IR and Alan gift wraps another RB without getting a starting WR in return. Billy, on the other hand, needs no help at RB, but will set a record for trade offers received as the rest of the league desperately tries to trade away 3 WRs for one of his stud backs.

This matchup could loom large in the race for a Bye, and Billy gets hit the hardest with Najee and his Bills all unavailable this week. A couple of games will determine this matchup. The highlight will absolutely be Chiefs/Titans on Sunday afternoon, where Mahomes, Tyreek, and Henry should combine for over 100 points. But Colts/49ers on SNF is also important, because if Billy can get big days out of JTT, Hines, and Hilton, and Deebo is held in check, he has a chance to pull the upset.

That scenario puts a lot of faith in Carson Wentz, and Barnard has a couple of Panthers going up against the Giants, so I'm sticking with the favorite here. Woof.

Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 3-3
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 5 Recap

Last week I said that there were no good teams, and only one bad one. Esco somehow exceeded those expectations by losing Clyde and Kenny, and the rest of the league was all over the place. Even if there are no good teams, there are players that blow up in a given week, and Week 5 was one of the biggest boom/bust weeks in recent memory. We had 10 players break 30, double the next highest week so far, and 16 players over 25. Teams like Alan (3 players at 5 or less), Mejia (3 players at 6.3 or less), Billy (3 players at 7.24 or less, including his QB), and Levine (3 players at 6.3 or less) all won despite less than stellar team performances. I'm of the opinion that the best indicator of future performance is limiting weaknesses, but I also don't have a chef's coat and sit at 2-3 with minimal top-end talent this year. Regardless, this week we're going to take a look at each team's Achilles heels, both obvious and underrated.

But first, a trade!

Trade Grade 4
Alan receives Odell Beckham Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots D/ST
Barnard receives Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Panthers D/ST

The theme of this season has been that Runningback is a complete wasteland and WRs are a dime a dozen. I thought Alan understood this when he traded DK for Kareem Hunt. Apparently he did not, as this trade is nothing less than malpractice. 

Before the trade, Barnard had a glut of WRs but no real way to turn them into a starting RB unless he included Reek or maaaybe Deebo. Enter Alan, who thinks getting two flex options is worth giving up his primary RB depth. On a weekly basis, I can easily see either Odell or Jakobi outscoring Sanders, but 1) that's not guaranteed and 2) it requires Alan to pick the right one. I also think that if Alan was going to trade away one of his RBs, he should have aimed for Sutton or looked toward one of the many other RB-needy teams for a better option.

As for Barnard, he gave up players he would never need to start to upgrade his biggest weakness. Can't really ask for much better than that, and now he can look to trade away Chuba or DJ along with one of his WRs and get even more startable talent. As it stands now, I still don't see Barnard as the favorite (this is still Miles Sanders we're talking about), but if he's able to make one more consolidation trade, or if Michael Thomas comes back as a WR1, then the 2021 could easily be the Barndogs year.

Grades:
Alan Grade: D
Barnard Grade: A-

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd)
Obvious Weakness: Wide receiver. DK has the talent, but now he doesn't have the QB, and beyond that things are bleak. Between Ruggs and Waddle, there is the chance for a breakout, but very little reliability. The problem with having a QB-WR connection is that when one goes down, they both are affected.
Underrated Weakness: Lack of trade options. The Russ injury is also killer because it removes the only real chance of a trade. Someone like Billy could look at buying low on an injured Russ, but the return would be nowhere near what is was a week ago.

2. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
Obvious Weakness: Lineup Management. This team has no real holes, and has more startable players at RB/WR than any other team in the league. But beyond Kamara, there is a decision to be made at every position, and so far they have cost themselves multiple wins by making the wrong ones.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. Godwin and Chase are easily starting options, but in crowded offenses, so they have higher dud potential than it might look. Pittman has been fine, but relies way more on Carson Wentz than I'm comfortable with.

3. Levine (Last Week: 4th)
Obvious Weakness: Monday Night Football. He lost two wins on MNF in heartbreaking fashion to start the year, and while the last two weeks have shown signs of life, if I'm Levine I'm scared anytime I see my opponent with a player left on Mondays.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. DJ Moore has been hot and cold, and that's the highlight here. Even if Fields improves over the course of the season, I don't see ARob living up to his draft price, and as expected teams have started covering Brandin Cooks. There are a few logical trade candidates here, but I can't see this team winning the Stevens Bowl without an upgrade at WR.

4. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)
Obvious Weakness: Runningback. Even though I loved the trade for Barnard, it was more about what he gave up than what he got. Miles Sanders isn't the answer by any means, but he's an unquestionable upgrade over the rest of the garbage Barnard has been starting this year. Lack of handcuffs and upside here make this the clear biggest concern for a contender this year.
Underrated Weakness: Reliance on the Chiefs. They're still the #1 rated offense this year, but things have obviously not been as lights out as in previous years. If teams have started to figure out how to contain Tyreek, the ceiling here is more limited and the lack of talent at RB becomes more glaring.

5. Marco (Last Week: 6th)
Obvious Weakness: Tight End/Defense. This roster is arguably the most stacked in the league outside of the two afterthought positions. Streaming at TE and Defense isn't the end of the world, but a trade to upgrade TE specifically is likely worth it. Wasting a bench spot on Washington (DST29 on the season) is still a joke, but at least they're not starting this week?
Underrated Weakness: Health. While he has only lost David Montgomery and Logan Thomas for extended time so far, it seems like half of Marco's roster is Questionable every week, and/or leaves the game with injury. Some of that is expected, but that makes it no less frustrating. He's also relying on a geriatric QB, but health does not appear to be a concern for immortals.

6. Billy (Last Week: 8th)
Obvious Weakness: Everything other than RB. He went as big as usual on the position, and got three of them this time (plus two handcuffs!), but Billy is squarely below average or worse at every other position.
Underrated Weakness: Difficulty to trade with. I'm not even referring to his work schedule, which doesn't appear to involve as much time on ESPN as most of us, but more that his roster construction makes trades difficult. While he has a massive strength where the rest of the league has a weakness, he also has massive weaknesses where the rest of the league has a strength. We discussed a trade surrounding Cooper Kupp and JTT, but couldn't find a way to make it work. I suspect this wasn't the only failed trade discussion Billy has had in the last few weeks.

7. Kumpf (Last Week: 2nd
Obvious Weakness: No studs. This was by design, but without spending $50+ on any one player, I'm left with a bunch of slightly above average or worse starters. Yes, Kupp and Andrews have exploded in a given week, but I don't have the reliability that pretty much everyone else has.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Tannehill has been a boring but stable QB1 in fantasy since taking over for the Titans, but he currently sits at QB21 for the year heading into a game against Buffalo's defense. Injuries have hurt his receiving corps, but the loss of Arthur Smith to Atlanta might be the real root cause.

8. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Both Burrow and Heincke have shown flashes this year, but Nick goes into pretty much every matchup with a 5-point disadvantage at the highest scoring position.
Underrated Weakness: Instability. He's got a bunch of boom/bust players, but the busts have far outweighed the booms so far this year. That has only affected his starting lineup once (4/5 weeks over 98 points), but prevents this from being a top 5 team.

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of depth. As I said when he traded away CEH (ironically now injured), but one injury to Z's starting lineup forces an uncomfortable reliance on Houston RBs. Two weeks later, Mark Ingram come on down!
Underrated Weakness: RB job security. Both Zeke and JRob have looked great the last couple of weeks and sit as top 10 RBs on the season, but through two weeks they were both at risk of losing a good chunk of their jobs. That may have been an early season fluke, but I would still be surprised if they both finish in the top 10.

10. Ajay (Last Week: 11th)
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Gross.
Underrated Weakness: Tight End?!? Kittle got hurt roughly 15 minutes after I brought up the possibility two weeks ago, and while Waller is missing practice primarily due to rest, he has yet to break 5 receptions since his Week 1 explosion. Ajay's TE situation is still better than the majority of the league, but he has to use a ton of roster spots on the TE and QB positions, hurting his flexibility elsewhere.

11. Mejia (Last Week: 9th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone outside the top 3. Your weakness is exactly the opposite of your strength. This is an Esco-level roster once you remove Rodgers, Cook, and Kelce.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Rodgers is only QB 15, yet he's still one of your only good players. If he stays at 15 or worse, you could compete with Esco for Shot Spot.

12. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of high end talent. Gutman's roster is a slightly lesser version of mine, which is appropriate as we match up this week. I'm sure he will break 120 against me, but without a true game changer, and a decently low floor, it's hard to get excited here.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. This one may have an expiration date if Devonta goes off tonight, but only Terry is currently in the top 30 at WR on this roster which is wild given all the draft money spent on the position. Aiyuk is up there with most disappointing picks of the season.

13. Alan (Last Week: 12th)
Obvious Weakness: Trading skills.. Before the trade with Barnard, I would have had Alan top 10. But not only did he hurt his roster prospects, but I also don't have faith in his ability to make trades moving forward. 
Underrated Weakness: Runningback. Hunt and Moss have been serviceable, but Hunt is on the wrong side of a timeshare and Moss is technically the backup RB on his team as well after Josh.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone besides Kyler and Keenan.
Underrated Weakness: Complete lack of assets to trade besides Kyler and Keenan.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Weissbard

No divisional matchups at all this week, but we do have 1 vs. 2 in the Power Rankings! Weiss could be on his way to a third title in four years, while AGD may have to look at the NiJo spot if they fall to 2-4.

Byes are a factor for the first time this year, and that hurts AGD more than most, with Kamara and his Falcons RBs all out of commission. Even with that handicap, AGD has some pretty sweet defenses to face this week other than for Dak, so I expect this to be closer than it looks based on names alone. Weissbard looks to be welcoming CMC back right as he loses Russ, so we'll see how health that hamstring looks. Defenses are much more difficult on the Weiss side across the board, so I expect this to come down to a classic showdown of Knox vs. Singletary on MNF. 

Weissbard may have grown to 5'7" this week, but I'm pretty confident that if you stack Belfer and Reap on top of each other, they break 6 feet. I'm sticking with the duo for one more week.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 3-2
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Week 4 Recap

It's the Era of Parity in FALAFEL, as for the first time ever, we have no 4-0 teams and no 0-4 teams. That means that the entire league is within 2 games of itself, and for all intents and purposes, the season has not started yet. 

That's not to say that we haven't learned things about each team. Over the next two weeks, I'll take shallow dive on each team's strengths and weaknesses, both the obvious and the below-the-radar. We'll start this week with strengths, and assume I remember to follow up next week with weaknesses.

Something to keep in mind this week (though I'm sure it will be ignored) is that the gap between teams 1-8 is very small in my mind, as is the gap between teams 9-13 (sorry Esco).

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
Obvious Strength: RB depth. Devin Singletary is probably the 5th best RB on this roster and would be in the starting rotation for at least 10 other teams.
Underrated Strength: Tight End. I've said it before, but I fully expect Hock to finish top 3 at the position. Outside of a weird game against the Ravens, he's had at least 8 targets every game.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 13th)
Obvious Strength: Wide receiver. Kupp's random brilliance aside, Diontae and Hollywood have been top 25 so far this season and that's not even including AJB, who's primed for a breakout if he ever gets healthy.
Underrated Strength: Resilience. Despite my jokes last week, I somehow did lose another starter in Mixon. Losing a starter per week should make my roster look worse than Esco's yet I'm 1 of 4 teams to break 90 every week.

3. Weissbard (Last Week: 6th)
Obvious Strength: QB. Weiss went back to the well with his 2QB strategy, which worked last year but is still risky as it relies on both options to play well, and for someone to be willing to trade for them. So far so good on performance, but given how deep the position is, I can't see a top 40 RB or top 25 WR coming his way in exchange for Herbert.
Underrated Strength: TE streaming. I wasn't a fan of unnecessarily giving up Goedert in his trade with Alan, but he bounced back strong with a nice Hooper week followed by Dawson Knox improbably becoming a top 10 option.

4. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)
Obvious Strength: Depth. His bench is full of high-upside handcuffs and potential starters for other teams. In a 14-game regular season that figures to be a battle of attrition, Levine is positioned to weather the storm and capitalize via trade.
Underrated Strength: James Conner. Someone who looked like a timeshare at best has assumed goalline duties in the desert. Assuming that Kliff doesn't want Kyler to take any unnecessary hits, Conner should easily break 10 TDs this season.

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 10th)
Obvious Strength: Fab Five. I don't know that anyone can match up with Stafford, Zeke, JRob, Davante, and Ridley when they're running on all cylinders. We have yet to see that, but Ridley is primed for a big week in London and the rest have sweet matchups.
Underrated Strength: Non-zero RBs. We've seen a couple of teams (Barnard, Weissbard) have truly abysmal weeks at RB, where 5 points would be an absolute dream. Z's bench has non-sexy options like Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman, and Philip Lindsay who would be no one's first choice, but will avoid a goose egg if things really hit the fan.

6. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)
Obvious Strength: Wide Receiver. Nuk and Amari have yet to really find their stride due to injuries, and Higgins has been banged up since Week 1, but the Mike Williams breakout gives you four above average options or better when they're all healthy. Just need to get there.
Underrated Strength: Tampa's play-calling. Bruce Arians hates running the ball, which means a geriatric QB is going to throw, throw, and keep throwing. Even in a monsoon where the opposing coach knows his weaknesses, Tom broke 10 points. I can't see him going under 20 again.

7. Nick (Last Week: 7th)
Obvious Strength: Core Four. You may not have the fifth member that Z does, but Chubb, Saquon, Lockett, and Diggs look primed to carry you if they can stay healthy. I've actually been impressed with the way that Jason Garrett has used Saquon, and Diggs has a 2-TD day coming if any of Buffalo's opponents can stay within 20, so your floor is pretty high barring injury.
Underrated Strength: Upside. Between Trey Lance, Kyle Pitts, Josh Gordon, and even Joe Burrow, there is a lot of untapped potential here. It may stay untapped until next year, but if one of those guys breaks out, you have a bargain basement starter.

8. Billy (Last Week: 4th)
Obvious Strength: RB. Duh.
Underrated Strength: QB. Carr has cooled off, but this has not been a bad year to live the streaming QB life. It will backfire in some weeks, but given how fucked the rest of the league is at RB, it's not the worst place to be.

9. Mejia (Last Week: 5th)
Obvious Strength: Three Musketeers. Rodgers, Dalvin, and Kelce is a top notch trio, though Dalvin's injury woes seem like they could linger throughout the season.
Underrated Strength: Fat Lenny. If he is going to keep playing a role in the passing game, he's actually startable.

10. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)
Obvious Strength: Mahomes and Tyreek. Duh.
Underrated Strength: WR depth. Reek and shockingly Deebo have been studs, but if anyone is actually primed to trade WR for RB, it's Barnard. He will likely have to part with one of his top 2 to get a starting RB, but that still leaves him with Odell, Sutton, Jakobi, eventually Gallup, and maybe even Michael Thomas. We can all expect to see "Michael Thomas for RB1" trade offers next week, but realistically, Deebo for RB2 is very doable.

11. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)
Obvious Strength: Tight End. Duh.
Underrated Strength: RB roulette. Ajay's RB situation is not ideal by any means, but he's not totally fucked. He just needs the right players to get hurt at the right times. That has already worked out with Mattison, and I can see Darrel Williams getting some starts in KC. RoJo is not included in this strength.

12. Alan (Last Week: 11th)
Obvious Strength: Josh Allen. After a slow start, he looks every part the top tier QB he was last year.
Underrated Strength: Improbably RB? Alan was screwed at RB just two weeks ago, but the Kareem Hunt trade and Zach Moss's emergence has actually left him in relatively decent shape. If he really wants to make moves, combining two of his three RBs for an upgrade would a ballsy trade. Kareem and Sanders for Dalvin?

13. Gutman (Last Week: 12th)
Obvious Strength: Competency. While there is minimal upside on this roster, it's competent across the board. Injuries and underperformance have hurt so far, but at 2-2, I can still see a playoff push if the cards break right here.
Underrated Strength: Eagles. If that playoff push doesn't happen, at least the Eagles don't appear to fold even when they're down big. Garbage time Jalen to Devonta points count the same as if the game is close.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Obvious Strength: Kyler. The MVP frontrunner with a rushing baseline that makes him the safest start in the league. I still think he's overrated as an NFL QB, but in fantasy that doesn't matter.
Underrated Strength: Third down backups? I'm struggling here, but as it stands Esco doesn't even really have handcuff RBs on his bench. He does have a few 3rd down backs that don't start between Drake, Evans, and Snell, so I guess that's good for half PPR?

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Marco

Holy divisional matchups! After a dry spell to start the year, we have four of them this week, any of which would make a good MotW candidate given how tight the standings are. But while no team can win the league this early, it is possible to create a massive hole to dig out of, and that's what Marco's potentially looking at.

It's also a juicy matchup based on roster construction as we have cross-team matchups of Brady and Amari vs. Dak and Godwin. I think that's probably a wash overall, and while Marco gets a slight WR edge with a healthy Nuk, the rest of the matchup is all AGD. Kamara vs. Washington D will be one-sided enough that Marco should finally give up on his home town squad, and this one will be decided long before Pittman gets to close things out on MNF.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 3-1
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4