Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Trade Analysis 1

Barnard traded Michael Floyd, Ari WR to Ajay
Barnard traded Steve Johnson, SF WR to Ajay
Ajay traded Reggie Wayne, Ind WR to Barnard
Ajay traded Golden Tate, Det WR to Barnard
Auction Cost:
$11 Michael Floyd, Ari WR to Ajay
$3 Steve Johnson, SF WR to Ajay
$14 Reggie Wayne, Ind WR to Barnard
$15 Golden Tate, Det WR to Barnard
Most Valuable Addition:
All of these guys could easily be trash so finding the one valuable player in the bunch is the only way someone wins this trade. I honestly hate the idea of trading before any games are played because no one has any real measure of player value except auction value. Tate is the safest play by virtue of being in the largest passing offense but Michael Floyd has the highest upside. Larry Fitzgerald has been slacking over the past several years and Floyd was a legitimate flex play in a deep league like ours last year. If you look at the ESPN projection they tell the same story, Floyd is the 22nd WR with 135 projected points on the year while Tate is the 30th WR ranked but has 139 projected points. I’m not even going to acknowledge Wayne who I think was a massive overpay and is an old man coming back from a brutal injury that he likely won’t recover from fully for another 12 months. I’m going to say Carson Palmer gets hurt at some point during the year and Floyd ends up with someone horrific throwing him the ball which makes Golden Tate more valuable over the long haul.
Ajay Trade Grade:
Like I said before I hate everything about Wayne this year so I like the idea of trading Tate for two potential draft steals in Floyd and Johnson. However, I can’t imagine a time during the year that you would actually be comfortable starting Johnson which basically makes this a Tate for Floyd trade. And if you were to promise me Carson would play the entire season injury free I would gladly pick Floyd but I think there is a less than 50% chance that happens. But since this is so early in the season and there really isn’t much of value being exchanged here it is hard to be too negative about this.
C+
Barnard Trade Grade:
I’m sure you were dancing at your computer thinking you were getting a good deal here based on auction values but those numbers are arbitrary and a terrible measure of actual player value. And sadly with the depth on your team you probably are looking at starting Wayne based on matchup decisions at flex. Tate is a nice plug in play at WR2 but this muddles your FLEX decision making even further. Between Reggie Wayne, Terrence Williams and Bernard Pierce someone will probably score a touchdown every week but deciding who that actually will be is going to be miserable. I say take the easy route and just go BJE. He probably is having a pretty shitty week after getting cut, so maybe, just maybe, he will log onto ESPN fantasy and see 0.01% of owners starting him and that will brighten his day. That’s about the best thing I see for your team this year. I actually kind of like this trade for you but knowing your history in life tempers my expectations and I lowered your grade accordingly

B