Stevens Bowl XV Preview

I am starting this post on Wednesday morning. I waited a day because I couldn't figure out how to kick things off, but the most dramatic stat correction in FALAFEL history changed all that. The only remotely similar feeling in sports is when a game-winning score is under review for some obscure rule. If we all knew that ESPN fucked up, that would be one thing, but a muffed punt between two below-average teams on Christmas Eve was not being talked about at all. Billy went from the People's Champ to an all-time horror story, Esco went from an over-achieving also ran to a potential Chef's Hat, and Bennett went from a punchline to the favorite for a Chef's Coat. Fantasy is weird, man.

Before we get to the usual preview, it's time for the usual song and dance:

MEJIA! ESCO! BENNETT! It's The Stevens Bowl XV!
(They have added an AI component that I can't really understand, but that's one step closer to Barnard being in one of these)

Now it's on to the usual Dr. Z breakdown:

Stevens Bowl XV: BMO vs. Esco

Quarterback
We're starting with one that looks easy on the surface. Josh Allen could play his way into a wide open MVP conversation if he leads the Bills to a comeback division title. That requires a win this week at home against the Pats. Unless we get another Wind Bowl, Josh has a floor of 20 (he's only been below 4 times this year, twice since Week 6), and he put up 24 in New England a couple months back. 

Esco's QB situation, on the other hand, has been a comedy/tragedy all year. He drafted Tua, with Kyler as an upside backup once Tua inevitably got concussed. My Adult Son shockingly has stayed healthy and productive, but a weirdly significant trade with Marco left Esco with a banged up and maddeningly inconsistent Trevor Lawrence. Tough decisions at QBs are the worst, because it can be a 10+ point mistake, and can lead you to seriously consider starting Tommy DeVito with your season on the line. The upside here is that both Kyler and Lawrence have good matchups this week. Right now it seems like Lawrence legitimately might not play, but even if he does, I like Kyler against Philly's porous pass defense (adding insult to injury for Bennett). Either way, I don't like the matchups enough to go against Josh.
Edge: BMO

Runningbacks
Some health concerns for Mostert and Jacobs make this one a little bit blurry at the moment. That would probably benefit BMO, as if Jacobs can't go, Zamir can be plugged right in. If Mostert isn't 100%, McD might just put him on a pitch count and give touches to Achane or El Jeffe. Assuming the top guys are healthy, this is close. Mostert could easily have 20 yards and 3 TDs, but the matchups are heavily in favor of Bennett.
Edge: BMO

Wide Receivers
The Ravens pass defense is no slouch, but it's very possible that Reek outscores every other WR on these two teams combined (assuming Waddle is out). Nice that Demarcus Robinson might get to make his Stevens Bowl debut though.
Big Edge: BMO

Tight End
Lots of mediocrity here, so this one comes down to touchdowns. Whoever Esco benches will definitely score, but not sure about the starters.
Edge: Even

Flex
If Esco wants a Chef Hat, it will come down to Gus. Miami's run defense has been firmly above average all year, but I assume they will sell out to stop Lamar, leaving some room for the Gus Bus. If he can deliver a 25+ point game like he did against AZ earlier in the year, the overall matchup will be tight. I can't see Belichick letting Gabe Davis go off AGAIN, so this position is an easy call.
Big Edge: Esco

D/ST
Esco didn't even think he was going to make the playoffs, let alone the Stevens Bowl, so he was ill-prepared for the D/ST hoarding that takes place every year around the holidays. Nothing wrong with the Steel Curtain with an average-ish matchup against Seattle, but I would take all three of BMO's defenses over Pitt. Now watch TJ Watt outscore Josh Allen.
Edge: BMO

Overall
On paper, this looks like a blowout. Bennett has a pretty clear edge at almost every position, along with better matchups and a better health situation. But Esco has looked like the team of destiny since Mostert sunk my dreams in Week 14. Will I have to decide how to handle a multiple Chef Coat situation? Or will the average height of Chef Hats increase significantly? And is this all just an elaborate JuJu ruse? We'll find out on NYE.
Pick: Mejia

I plan on doing a couple lookbacks in the coming weeks, but the blog could just as easily be left alone until Draft Location Madness in three months.

Week 14 Playoff Picture

One week from the playoffs! Rivalry Week II! A playoff picture shakeup! Lots of big stuff this week, so let's jump right in.

If the season ended today, the playoffs would be:

1. Ajay - BYE - Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Champ
2. Marco - BYE - Bennett Division Champ
3. Billy - Wild Card 1
4. Zacherman - Levine Division Champ
5. Bennett - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot

Things are finally a little different here. Ajay has clinched everything possible, Zacherman falls out of the bye for the first time since he draft Mahomes and Kelce, and I enter the playoff picture for the first time since I drafted Akers and Pierce.

Everyone has something to play for this week, even if it's just the second Rivalry Week prize or weekly high score. But for some teams this week just means more, so I'll run through those teams.

Ajay - Clinched Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Championship, and bye. Boring.

Marco - Clinched playoffs. Should clinch Bennett Division Championship and a bye with a win vs. Gutman. If Marco wins AND Billy (46) OR Zacherman (50) wins and makes up points, Marco could fall out of the bye. If Marco loses, he could fall all the way to 5th if Billy and Z make up points AND Bennett wins.

Billy - Clinched playoffs. Similar position to Marco in that he could end up anywhere from 2nd (bye) to 5th, with an outside shot at falling to NiJo spot. Billy can clinch the division and a bye with a win against Bennett, Marco losing to Gutman AND Z either losing to AGD OR Z beating AGD and not outscoring Billy by 4. Billy would fall to the NiJo spot with a loss to Bennett, Zacherman beating AGD OR losing and outscoring Billy by 4, AND Kumpf beating Barnard AND outscoring Billy by 51. 

Zacherman - Clinched playoffs. Essentially the same situation as Billy but with 4 less points scored so far. Can finish anywhere from the second bye to NiJo spot.

Bennett - Clinched playoffs. Even with a loss, Bennett has scored 123 more points than the 7th highest scoring team, so the NiJo spot is the absolute worst he can finish. In terms of upside, he still has an outside shot at the bye. Bennett would need to beat Billy, have Marco lose to Gutman while not outscoring Bennett by 24, AND have Z lose to AGD. Not impossible, but not likely.

Now for the fun part. The NiJo spot is still pretty wide open, with Billy, Z and Bennett potentially getting involved in a surprising race depending on how things break.

Kumpf - Can clinch the playoffs as the 5 seed with a win against Barnard AND Billy beating Bennett. That's surprisingly feasible though the JT injury hurts. If I lose to Barnard OR Bennett beats Billy, then it comes down to the NiJo spot, where I have a 1.5 point lead over Esco. That means it's essentially me vs. Esco even though we're not playing each other. I don't remember having this situation before but it's a fun byproduct of the NiJo rule.

Esco - Can only make the playoffs via NiJo rule. Would need to outscore me by 1.5 regardless of the outcome of either of our matchups. He also just lost Lawrence and Kirk, and Kyler is on bye. Saquon is back at least?

And that's it. I will manually set the seeds after MNF next week, and all eliminated teams will have their rosters "frozen" in that I will manually undo any moves that are made starting Week 15 unless that team is still alive.

Wait... is that Nick and Alan's music???

I had mentally written off everyone else, but we still have two other teams very much alive for the NiJo spot.

Nick - After a massive Week 13, Nick re-established himself as a playoff contender and is now only 17 points behind me and Esco. Conner on a bye puts a lot of pressure on Aaron Jones getting healthy, but Nick has had two weeks in the 140s so far this year. Another one would more than likely put him in the playoffs.

Alan - As always, you can never write Alan off. He held serve against me this week which was all he needed to do to make up ground on Esco, and he now sits only 30 points back of us. His team is both healthy and not on byes, with some decent matchups as well. He has not had as many boom weeks as Nick, but his consistency makes him a threat to crash the playoff party and single handedly keep the embroidered chef attire industry in business.

Technically Gutman is alive too, but making up 71 points on me and passing three other teams isn't going to happen.

My official prediction for the playoff field:

1. Ajay

2. Marco

3. Zacherman

4. Bennett

5. Billy

6. Alan