Trade Grade 8
AGD receives Ryquell Armstead and Jalen Richard
Bennett receives Raheem Mostert
Yawn. Can't imagine Armstead or Richard cracking AGD's starting lineup by choice, which says a lot about both their team and the quality of players acquired. Mostert becomes RB3 in the San Fran backfield once Coleman is healthy, but Tevin and Breida are both pretty fragile and that running game has been very solid so far. I've already spent too much time thinking about this trade.
AGD Grade: C-
Bennett Grade: B-
Trade Grade 9 (Brought to you by throwback trade grader Esco)
Kumpf receives Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, and George Kittle
Weissbard receives Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, and DJ Chark
Easily the biggest trade of the season so far, only the AGD/Marco Hopkins trade comes close. Tough to see this as anything less than a home run for Kumpf right off the bat. He gave up two FLEX caliber players who have yet to start for his team and Marlon Mack for a short term reduction in RB2 production, a massive upgrade at TE and a potential for the best two RBs in football for the home stretch of the season. This is only an A- because if the Daniel Jones magic doesn’t continue, there is a plausible scenario where the Giants shut down Saquon to avoid any re-injury risk, Gallman loses the starting job in 2 weeks and Damien Williams can’t stay healthy making the RB2 situation dire. The risk is worth it for the coat though.
Assuming Weissbard lined up the Monty / Thielen trade (which I think was fantastic for him) prior to pulling the trigger, here is his roster composition pre/post blockbuster trade
While he gets an RB1 for his fight for playoff survival, he now has a much harder roster decision to make every week. Brown, Metcalf and Chark are all big play dependent WRs and picking correctly between them and Hyde is going to be very difficult. There will be weeks where the core team carries him to a win but there will also be many weeks where the highest scoring WR is on the bench. There is also legitimate concern for Mack’s health. He’s leading the league with 61 carries through 3 games and his career high in season carries (college or pro) is 212 which he will pass by the 11th game of the year at this rate. However, this was a trade that had to be made. At 0-3 in a hypercompetitive division, Weissbard can’t wait for the bye week, can’t wait for Saquon, he needs wins now.
Kumpf Grade: A-Weissbard Grade: C+
Trade Grade 10
Alan receives David Montgomery and Cole Beasley
Weissbard receives Adam Thielen
Alan has had a very quietly solid season so far. Nothing crazy, but he's put up good numbers and his draft looks way better in hindsight than it did at the time. Then he goes and trades a top 15 WR for a flex-at-best RB, and undoes all of that good will. Yes, Melvin is coming back soon, and yes, Latavius isn't reliable week to week, but NO Montgomery is not the answer. As Esco mentioned above, this is a great trade for Weissbard on its own, made even better when looked at in combination of the Mack trade (though I do agree with the specific trade grades Esco gave out). I don't think this saves Weissbard's season or tanks Alan's, but it certainly helps one team more than the other.
Alan Grade: D
Weissbard Grade: A
Trade Grade 11
Barnard receives Sony Michel and Brandin Cooks
Esco receives Michael Thomas and Gus Edwards
This is my hardest trade to grade so far this year. From a value perspective, I think Barnard did a great job turning a potentially diminishing asset in Thomas into two starters, and Cooks could potentially outscore Thomas over the rest of the season. However, I really don't like Michel or Cooks, and I absolutely feel like if Michel was on any other team, Barnard doesn't do this trade. From Esco's side, it makes sense to combine depth for no-doubt starters, which Thomas is even with Teddy at QB. Overall that makes the trade relatively even, with the off-chance that Esco is trying boost Barnard's chef's coat chances as the founding member of the Nard Dawgs.
Barnard Grade: B
Esco Grade: B+
I'm already exhausted and we haven't even gotten to the rankings yet.
Week 4 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Good News: I don't think I've seen a trade pay more immediate dividends than the Evans acquisition, which single-handedly won you the week.
Bad News: Barring unexpected relevance from Kareem Hunt, your trade options are pretty much exhausted, and that RB duo isn't winning you any weeks on their own (which has traditionally been the mark of a Stevens Bowl contender).
2. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Good News: While Hockenson has fallen off a cliff, Will Dissly looks like a potential Waiver Pickup of the Year candidate.
Bad News: Depth continues to be a concern as your bench is simply not scoring any points.
3. Kumpf (Last Week: 4)
Good News: I plugged my biggest hole at TE in a trade that also netted the most expensive player in the draft while only giving up one starter.
Bad News: My Stevens Bowl hopes are now way more dependent on the Giants than I am comfortable with.
4. Billy (Last Week: 2)
Good News: The boom/bust model which led you to the misguided AB trade paid off in spades with Kamara and the Bears D carrying you to a huge win and reversing the #Kurse.
Bad News: Receiver situation aside, you are shockingly thin at RB and have none of your handcuffs.
5. Levine (Last Week: 8)
Good News: Despite the loss, you showed off the ceiling that I previously did not think this team had, and Keenan Allen is headed for a WR1 season if he stays healthy.
Bad News: Despite being 5th in the Power Rankings, two of the teams ahead of you are in your division.
6. Marco (Last Week: 7)
Good News: You nearly put up 100 even with terrible lineup management, and are somehow tied for the division lead at 1-2.
Bad News: For someone who loves trading and making big splashes, you have the most unexciting team I've ever seen.
7. Alan (Last Week: 6)
Good News: You have impressive RB depth, which should be beneficial in trade talks after injuries and byes hit.
Bad News: For some reason you traded a WR, which you are relatively thin at, for yet another RB.
8. Nick (Last Week: 9)
Good News: You broke 100 while getting less than 6 points combined from Gurley and Ridley, while starting Andy Dalton.
Bad News: On your wedding weekend, you got a painful reminder of why you left fantasy football in the first place.
9. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Good News: Trading for Michael Thomas gives you a definitive answer to one of your weekly lineup questions.
Bad News: You still have 7 more weekly lineup questions.
10. Weissbard (Last Week: 5)
Good News: You were shockingly reasonable in making trades while blowing up a team you (and I) felt great about after the draft.
Bad News: You are shockingly terrible at drafting a division.
11. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: O.J. Howard scored some points this week.
Bad News: Dallas Goedert did not.
12. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: Week 3 may have been Mahomes worst game of the season and he almost put up 30.
Bad News: Relying on Greg Olsen to carry your team hasn't been a viable strategy since 2012.
13. Ajay (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Even though you lost to Barnard, you still have a chef's hat and coat.
Bad News: Having a deep team with upside is better than having a terrible team with no upside, but it still doesn't help you break 80.
14. Barnard (Last Week: 14)
Good News: Melvin's imminent return will help you survive the imminent regression from your over-performing roster.
Bad News: These rankings continue to be forward-focusing and are written by an allegedly biased journalist, so you stay in last until your offense breaks 80 points.
Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Kumpf
The varsity undefeated matchup to Gutman and Barnard's JV version lost a little bit of its luster, but should still be a tight matchup. My trade for an injured Saquon and an on-bye Kittle is matched by Leveon also being on bye, introducing guys like Jalen Richard, Marvin Jones, MVS, and human waste of 12 auction dollars Jared Cook into the equation. The schedule doesn't make for a very dramatic weekend, with no MNF options, so I expect a lot of action throughout the day on Sunday. And the matchups aren't really one-sided in either direction, which can often determine how these matchups go. This one probably comes down to Damien Williams health. If he can go, I can roll out a solid roster outside of Cook and should be able to overcome an explosion by Hopkins or Evans. If he's out I get to chose between Wayne Gallman and Justin Jackson, and AGD gets to go 4-0. As of now, it looks like he's going to play, so it looks like I done #Kursed myself.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 1-2
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2
NFL Bets
Texans (-4) vs. Panthers - Loss
Titans (+4) at Falcons - Win
Redskins (+3) at Giants - Loss
Rams (-10) vs. Bucs - Loss
Jaguars (+3) at Broncos - Win
Saints (+3) vs. Cowboys - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 11-10 (-0.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Arizona State (+4.5) at California - Win
TCU (-15.5) vs. Kansas - Win
North Carolina (+27) vs. Clemson - Win
Baylor (+3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Virginia - Win
Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska - Win
Washington State (+6) at Utah - Loss
Last Week: 9-1-1
2019 Record: 20-13-1 (+5.31 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Everton (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Arsenal - Push
Last Week: 2-0-2
2019-20 Record: 11-10-8 (-.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Chelsea (-230) vs. Brighton - Win
Tottenham (-215) vs. Southampton - Win
Crystal Palace (-110) vs. Norwich - Win
Bournemouth (+150) vs. West Ham - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 8-4 (+0.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
2019-20 Record: 0-1-2 (-1.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
MLB Bets
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
MLS Spread Bets
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)
No comments:
Post a Comment