First Round Preview

Well that was an eventful week. Bennett shocked Levine, Ajay somehow avoided Shot Spot, AGD put Nick on the brink, and I sold my soul for a better chance at a chef's coat. FALAFEL at its finest if you ask me.

That leaves us with six teams vying for either their first chef's coat (Barnard, Gutman, me), a chef's hat (AGD, Esco), or an oven mitt (Alan). AGD and Gut can sit back and watch the carnage this week, but it's time to break down each matchup Dr. Z style.

Matchup 1 - Alan vs. Kumpf

Quarterbacks:
Relying on Jameis to not shit the bed has me admittedly nervous, but his ceiling is unquestionably high. The hardest part for Alan is picking between Rodgers and Cousins. Rodgers is the safe bet, but could be in a situation where the Packers blow out the Skins and stop passing. Kirk theoretically could be in the same boat against the Lions, but Dalvin's injury might complicate things. Either way Alan wins here, but I wouldn't want to make the choice he's facing.
Edge: Alan

Runningbacks:
I have to admit that Alan's success this year with his motley crew of RBs has been shocking. Unfortunately for him, there is once again not a clear cut lineup decision. Murray is relatively easy to bench against San Fran, but picking between Monty, Ekeler, and RoJo won't be easy. Ordinarily, Alan's choice here wouldn't matter against my dynamic duo, but Dalvin is banged up and Saquon has looked mortal. I'm dreading a re-injury situation for Dalvin, but with Eli back in the saddle I can easily see 10+ checkdowns for Barkley. I'm still ahead here, but not nearly as much as it looks on paper.
Edge: Kumpf

Wide Receivers:
This is where the matchup will be decided. Davante has the same potential blowout issue as Rodgers, but he's been lights out the last couple of weeks. Courtland Sutton is low-key one of the best draft picks this year, but he's also dealing with Drew Lock. Godwin is boom/bust, and Lockett is coming off a goose egg, so I'm not in much better shape. Either team could have their top two receivers combine for 50 or fail to break 15.
Edge: Even

Tight End:
Another close matchup here. Kelce and Kittle are likely the top two TEs in any given week, so picking between them is basically a coin flip. Kittle has the better matchup, but the Pats D has looked mediocre or worse against actual NFL offenses, so it's not that simple. I think Kittle is safer assuming Belichick doubles Kelce, but this is too close to call.
Edge: Even

Flex:
If I win this week, it will be because I chose the correct flex. Between a healthy Alshon against the Giants on MNF, a recovering Thielen against the Lions, and a boom/bust James Washington catching balls from Duck, there are a lot of factors to consider. I'm likely picking between Thielen and Alshon, and while I would love to have two guys on MNF, the late-scratch possibility is real with Jeffrey. Extremely high ceiling/low floor situation here. Alan currently has Cole Beasley in this spot, and while he could swap in Latavius or RoJo, he has a 5-15 point range compared to my 0-25 point range. I'd rather have my situation, but only barely.
Slight Edge: Kumpf

D/ST:
Both the Packers and Browns are mediocre defenses playing bottom five offenses. And while Dalton and the Skins running game both looked good last week, I can't picture that happening again. No clear leader here.
Edge: Even

Overall:
This was a much more even matchup than I expected. ESPN is currently favoring me by over 15, but I'm pretty sure they have favored me in every matchup this season, and I wound up below .500 (albeit with a Week 13 tank). I think my team is more talented on paper, and has slightly better matchups, but injuries and recently poor performances have me a little worried. That's all before getting into the karma discussion, where I'm sorely lacking and Alan has a natural lead even before that. However, while I fully expect my MNF decision last week to come back to bite me at some point, I don't think it happens this week, and I get my first FALAFEL playoff victory.
Pick: Kumpf

Matchup 2 - Esco vs. Barnard

Quarterbacks:
Barnard's hope in this matchup overall hinges on how well the Indy passing game does against Tampa Bay. In theory, it's a great matchup that could yield huge days for Brisket and TY (if he plays). I don't love needing that huge day, but it's certainly in play. On the flip side, Josh Allen gets a formidable and opportunistic Baltimore D, which will likely lead to multiple turnovers. I still think the Bills have enough success to make this one close, but the opposing defenses make the choice for me here.
Slight Edge: Barnard

Runningbacks/Flex:
Pretty shocking that these RB groups made the playoffs. The Kansas City rush defense has been exploitable for most of the season, which should benefit Barnard with Sony, but could also lead to second straight big day for James White if the Pats fall behind and run a lot of draws/screens. Those two basically cancel each other out, and while I like Freeman the most out of the rest, I like Scarborough the least, making this essentially a wash overall.
Edge: Even

Wide Receivers:
Mike Thomas revenge game! The one true stud in this matchup gets a tough San Fran secondary, albeit one with a banged up Richard Sherman. That may limit the ceiling for Thomas, as does the presence of David Blough for Golladay against a leaky Vikings defense, but I still like Esco's odds here. Ridley and Edelman isn't a terrible combo, but it would look nicer with a healthy TY (and a lot nicer with Michael Thomas). Barring a medical miracle in Indy, this is pretty straightforward.
Edge: Esco

Tight End:
Meh. Cook has been better, but gets a rough matchup, while it's shocking that Graham is still rostered despite his better matchup. Flip a coin.
Edge: Even

D/ST:
I'm not sure if it's blind homerism, or the perceived lack of better options, but I can't honestly believe Barnard is going to roll out a defense facing Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs, especially because they have looked like shit against the two good offenses they've faced this year. Unless he makes a change, either one of Esco's defenses should own this matchup.
Edge: Esco

Overall:
Barnard's mere presence in the playoffs is controversial enough, and while I know he feels awkward about how it happened, he is still holding out some hope for a miracle run. The only way I see that happening is if TY plays and the Colts break 40 in Tampa. Right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen, so I have to go with the team that has a higher ceiling and a higher floor.
Pick: Esco

MotW Record: 7-7 (Gave myself a win for picking myself over Barnard. Tanking doesn't affect pick accuracy, says the guy who tanked and tracks pick accuracy.)


Gambling Corner - Week of 12/2

NFL Bets
Browns (-7) vs. Bengals - Win
49ers (+3) at Saints - Win
Colts (+3) at Bucs - Push
Jaguars (+3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Eagles (-9.5) vs. Giants - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 36-31-2 (-0.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Georgia (+7) vs. LSU - Loss
Wisconsin (+17) vs. Ohio State - Win
Last Week: 2-4
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets

Last Week: 0-2
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NBA Win Total Bets
The Good
Hawks under 34
Nets under 43.5
Mavericks over 41.5
T-Wolves over 35.5
Thunder over 32.5
Suns over 29.5
Blazers under 46.5
Spurs under 45.5
Jazz under 53.5
The Bad
Pacers under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Grizzlies over 26.5
The Ugly
Bulls over 33.5
Lakers under 50.5
Bucks under 57.5

NCAAB Bets
Butler (-4) vs. Florida - Win
Ohio State (-7) vs. Penn State - Win
Georgia Tech (-2.5) vs. Syracuse - Loss
West Virginia (-3.5) at St. John's - Loss
Wake Forest (+5) vs. NC State - Loss
Indiana (Pick) at Wisconsin - Loss
Maryland (-11) vs. Illinois - Loss
Georgetown (+4) at SMU - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-8 (+1.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Aston Villa (+1.5) at Chelsea - Win
Manchester United (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Win
Burnley (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Bournemouth (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Southampton - Win
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 30-21-11 (+3.69 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-260) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019-20 Record: 17-8 (+4.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)