Week 12 Recap

Ooooh boy! Other than Esco beating Barnard, Week 12 gave us pretty much maximum chaos. If we accept that one team can only make up 50 points on another team in a given week, then we still have 9 teams alive for the 6 playoff spots heading into Week 13 (sorry Marco). Not to mention other items up for grabs, including bye weeks, seeding, and an actual Shot Spot Bowl. And all of that is before we get to Rivalry Week, with $50 on the line in each matchup and and $150 for the weekly high score. All of this will go down with no NFL teams on a bye and three Thursday games. It truly is the most wonderful time of the year.

This week's post will focus entirely on the playoffs, so buckle up.

Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Esco (bye) - Zacherman Division Champ
3. Nick - Wild Card 1
4. Levine - Levine Division Champ
5. Gutman - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot


Week 12 Scenarios/Power Rankings (including point differentials from nearest potential tiebreakers)

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Clinched the playoffs, a bye, and the Regular Season Best Record prize. That doesn't mean they get to relax in Week 13 though, as they face Nick with a lot of potential implications. Is it better to beat Nick, and likely push him into the NiJo spot (or out of the playoffs entirely) to allow for someone like Alan or Barnard a better shot at a Wild Card? Or should they lose to Nick on purpose, clinch him a playoff spot, and open the door for Weissbard to make moves? I think a win is probably the better situation for them, but we'll see if Belfer agrees.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6)(+37 on Nick, +53 on Levine)
One of the bigger one-week turnarounds in recent memory has given me a 37 point lead in the race for the NiJo spot. I can still win the division if I beat Barnard, Bennett beats Levine, and Billy beats Alan. I can also win a Wild Card if I beat Barnard, and at least three of Gutman, Nick, Levine, and Alan lose.

3. Gutman (Last Week: 2)(-31 on Nick, -15 on Levine, +25 on Weissbard, +28 on Alan, +50 on Esco)
The potential for collapse is real here, as Gutman could go from a bye to missing the playoffs entirely. If Gutman beats Marco, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Alan all win, and Alan outscores Gutman by 28. He can also get a bye if he wins, Esco loses, and Levine, Nick, and Alan all either lose, or end up with less points in a win. If Gutman loses, he needs Levine, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to outscore Levine by 15 without getting outscored by 28 by Alan.

4. Levine (Last Week: 3)(-53 on Kumpf, -16 on Nick, +15 on Gutman, +40 on Weissbard, +44 on Alan)
Can win the division by winning or by losing and having Alan lose as well (44 point difference between them is unlikely to be overcome in one week). Can also get a bye if he wins and Esco loses, while Nick either loses or Levine passes him in points. If Levine wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Nick, Gutman, and Alan all win and pass him in points. If Levine loses, he needs Gutman, Nick, and Alan to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to hold his points lead over Gutman and Alan.

5. Esco (Last Week: 4)(-50 on Gutman, -25 on Weissbard, -22 on Alan)
This might be the most under the radar run to a bye in recent FALAFEL history. If Esco wins, he gets to rest until Week 15, no questions asked. If he loses, shit gets wild. He can still win the division if Nick loses, but he won't be able to make up the 80 point differential if Nick wins. The only way Esco misses the playoffs is if he loses, and three of Alan, Levine, Gutman, and Nick win.

6. Nick (Last Week: 5)(-37 on Nick, +16 on Levine, +31 on Gutman)
Nick's record is finally starting to reflect his team's performance this season, ironically right as that performance is starting to suffer. He can win the division if he beats AGD and Esco loses. If Nick loses, he still has a couple of playoff paths. He can get a Wild Card if myself as well as three of Gutman, Barnard, Alan, and Levine lose, and can get the NiJo spot if I win and Alan and Levine lose, as long as he doesn't blow his points lead to Levine or Gutman.

7. Alan (Last Week: 7)(-44 on Levine, -28 on Gutman, -3 on Weissbard, +22 on Esco)
Like Gutman, Alan has a wide range of outcomes. He can get a bye with a win, an Esco loss, and either Levine/Gutman losses, or wins where Alan outscores them by 43 and 28. If Alan wins, the only way he misses the playoffs is if Levine, Nick, and Gutman also win without Alan making up his point differential on any of them. If Alan loses, he needs, Levine, Gutman, and Nick to lose as well, me to beat Barnard, and he needs to make up his point differential on one of Nick/Levine/Gutman.

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)(-40 on Levine, -25 on Gutman, +3 on Alan, +25 on Esco)
Weissbard's only shot is the NiJo spot, and he won't be able to make up the points needed to get ahead of me or Nick. His paths all involve me and Nick winning, and Gutman and Alan losing. He is helped out further if Esco loses (giving Nick a path to the division) and/or Levine wins (removing him from NiJo spot consideration), but he can get in if those do not happen. The biggest hurdle outside of those items will be outscoring Gutman by 25 without getting outscored by 3 by Alan.

9. Marco (Last Week: 9)
He's 80 points behind the lowest playoff contender, and even if he passes Esco, it won't matter. His two year playoff streak is over.

10. Billy (Last Week: 10)
A team that looked so promising after the draft and couldn't recover from a terrible trade, an old QB, and an extreme lack of depth.

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Another multi-year playoff streak over, this team got it together far too late.

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)
To complete his improbably playoff run, Barnard needs beat me, have Gutman and/or Nick lose, and have Alan and/or Levine lose. He won't win a tiebreaker with anyone, so I can eliminate him by just winning. The way this season has gone, I think we know how this will turn out.

13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)
Another completely unremarkable season for Bennett, other than his refusal to pay any of his debts.

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
It's been a long 4 years since that chef's hat.


Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Kumpf
Considering all the playoff stakes that are undecided, it's pretty shocking that this is the only game that really has relevance to both teams. A high scoring loss might actually be the best case scenario for me, as I would potentially let a terrible Barnard team into the playoffs while theoretically avoiding AGD until the finals. But nothing is guaranteed, so both teams need to put up points. On paper, only one of us will. I have a pretty clear advantage at every single position other than D/ST, and it's very easy to see the Packers putting up more points against Danny Nickels than the Pats against Houston. But on paper, my team should have at least 10 wins, so this will likely be much closer than it looks. Regardless, reverse JuJu doesn't work when it's too obvious, and this matchup should be over before I even get to roll out Dalvin (and maybe Thielen?) on MNF.
Pick: Kumpf
MotW Record: 6-7


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/25

NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) vs. Browns - Win
Packers (-7) at Giants - Win
Jets (-3) at Bengals - Loss
49ers (+7) at Ravens - Win
Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders - Win
Patriots (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Vikings (+3) at Seahawks - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 34-29-1 (+0.36 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NFL Win Total Bets
Already Won
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5

Already Lost
Bengals over 6
49ers under 8

Looking Good
Bears under 9
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5

Looking Bad
Packers under 9.5
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5

TBD
Lions over 6.5

NCAAF Bets
Virginia (+3) vs. Virginia Tech - Win
Iowa (-6) at Nebraska - Loss
Alabama (-4) at Auburn - Loss
Baylor (-14) at Kansas - Win
NC State (+10) vs. North Carolina - Loss
Oklahoma State (+13) vs. Oklahoma - Loss
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 51-41-1 (+3.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets
Celtics (-6.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Bulls (+1) vs. Blazers - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 12-10-1 (-0.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
BYU (+1.5) vs. UCLA (Neutral Site) - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 7-3 (+3.33 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Newcastle (+2) vs. Manchester City - Win
Bournemouth (+1.5) at Tottenham - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 27-17-11 (+4.81 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Liverpool (-500) vs. Brighton - Win
Leicester City (-150) vs. Everton - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 16-8 (+3.80 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Club Brugge (Pick) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Dinamo Zagreb (+1) at Atalanta - Loss
Red Star (+2) vs. Bayern Munich - Loss
Barcelona (-1) vs. Dortmund - Win
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 10-11-5 (-2.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Juventus (+110) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 6-2 (+5.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)