Second Round Preview

The playoffs started with a bang. Enormous games from Jameis and Ekeler drove one matchup, while the difference in the other matchup came down entirely to the Tight End position. Injuries also dominated the week, with each remaining team affected one way or another. Losing Mike Evans is rough for AGD, but probably benefits me with Godwin (unsure how it will affect Jamies, who may not even notice). I lost Alshon, which could help Gutman with Agholor. Gut gets a huge bump for Carson with Penny going down, but loses Davante Parker, who surprisingly led him to the bye. Esco was affected the least, but Jared Cook's concussion will make the TE position a question mark because he plays on MNF. Fun times all around.

As a side note, while my tanking efforts were entirely to keep Nick out of the playoffs and avoid AGD until the Stevens Bowl, it had the side effect of giving me Alan in the first round. That proved to be important, as I would have lost to Esco if I played it straight. Karma took Alshon away from me, but it has unquestionably validated my decision so far. Keep it coming!

On to the breakdowns.

Matchup 1 - AGD vs. Esco

Quarterbacks:
While Josh Allen has done a shockingly good job of replacing Cam's production and style, the matchup against Pitt is not a good one. His legs should keep him in the double digits, but I don't see him approaching 20. Unfortunately for Esco, 20 is probably the floor for Watson in what should be an unexpected shootout against the Titans.
Big Edge: AGD 

Runningbacks:
The RB position is probably the weakest position overall in this matchup, though there is some upside. Fournette is the only stud, but the Jags have looked like garbage the last few weeks. He gets a juicy matchup against Oakland, but if they fall behind that caps his ceiling. Esco's Ingram/Lindsay duo also has good matchups but their workload is extremely inconsistent week-to-week. And while AGD currently has Hunt as their RB2 and Leveon as Flex, I'm putting Bell in this section to make things even. I don't expect him to do much against the stout Ravens defense, but his workload (especially with half PPR) gives him a decent floor. Honestly, the range of outcomes here is far too large to make a choice.
Edge: Even

Wide Receivers:
Kudos to AGD for grabbing and holding onto AJ Brown, who steps in as a nice boom/bust replacement for Evans (who had a very boom/bust season himself). Adding Brown to Hopkins will make that AFC South matchup an extremely important one for this FALAFEL matchup, and has the potential for 40+ points at WR for AGD. On the other side, Esco also has some extremely nice matchups for Mike Thomas and Golladay (who no longer has to worry about Marvin stealing endzone targets), so his ceiling is equally as high. This should be a fun position no matter what, but I'm leaning towards Esco just because Brown isn't as consistent as the other three studs.
Slight Edge: Esco

Tight End:
Injuries are playing a huge role here, so while the matchup is currently Cook vs. Higbee, it could end up as Howard vs. Andrews, or any combination of the four. Assuming everyone is healthy, I like Cook the most, followed closely by both Andrews and Higbee, with Howard bringing up the rear. Given the MNF game for Cook, and the dropoff to Howard, I'm going with AGD based on the information we have now.
Slight Edge: AGD 

Flex:
Kareem Hunt vs. Stefon Diggs is quite the matchup. Both guys have the potential to lose touches to someone in their same position group, but they have relatively nice matchups, so it's another huge range of outcomes position. I can certainly see a world where Hunt has 15+ touches and a TD or two, but Diggs is going to have the higher floor most of the time.
Slight Edge: Esco

D/ST:
Esco gets to choose between a Chiefs team that can't stop the run against Denver, and a Vikings team that can't stop the pass against the Chargers. He has KC in right now, and while I agree with that choice, it likely won't matter with AGD's Ravens facing the Jets on TNF.
Big Edge: AGD 

Overall:
A dominant AGD team all season looks as vulnerable now as they have since the draft. A late surging Esco team is solid across the board other than one-week blips at QB and TE. This is going to be a high scoring matchup where either team could break 120 easily. AGD has the higher ceiling, but the floor for Hunt, Bell, Brown, and whoever starts at TE is scary. Esco has the higher floor, but tough matchups for Josh Allen, the potential return of Thielen, and his own TE injury drama limits his ceiling. I'm extremely torn here, but weird shit happens in the playoffs, so I'm going with the "safer" option.
Pick: Esco

Matchup 2 - Gutman vs. Kumpf

Quarterbacks:
Jameis is truly a one-man roller coaster ride, but his upside has been enough to make him a weekly stud over the last month. And while he gets an easy matchup against Detroit, he literally fractured a bone in his throwing hand which won't help his "accuracy." Dak has been equally as inconsistent, just with a higher floor and lower ceiling. The Rams seem to have potentially figured things out on defense recently, so I'm going entirely based on the opposing defense here.
Slight Edge: Kumpf 

Runningbacks/Flex:
This is the studfest of this matchup. Cook, Barkley, Carson, and Chubb are arguably four of the top 6 RBs this week as their workload and matchups are all excellent. Chubb may lose touches to Hunt, and Cook may still be banged up, but I expect all of these guys to approach or exceed 20 points. The flex position is also included in here and if either Mostert or Sanders has big day, they could swing the entire matchup. Having said all that, I would be throwing a dart if I tried to make a choice here.
Edge: Even

Wide Receivers:
Godwin has the best situation here here, but Julio and Amari can easily match his output. The Jameis/Godwin and Dak/Amari combos could lead to some huge point totals if they connect for TDs, and will go a long way towards determining who wins overall. My WR2 situation is less than ideal, with Lockett borderline unstartable, a boom/bust Mike Williams, and the potential for Thielen's return. I honestly don't know who I'm going to start right now, but it probably won't matter either way.
Edge: Gutman

Tight End:
In theory, this position is the biggest single edge in the entire matchup. However, I traded Hollister to Gutman for one subpar week of Vance McDonald, and if Karma is going to come back to bite me this week, this is where it will happen. Not something I'm willing to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
Big Edge: Kumpf

D/ST:
Gutman has been riding with the Saints for a while, but after last week, he has to feel a little bit rattled. The Colts aren't an elite offense, but they're also not likely to commit multiple turnovers, limiting the floor and ceiling for NOLA. I still haven't made my choice between the Packers and Giants, but each one is probably about the same as the Saints. I doubt there is much of a difference here no matter who I go with,
Edge: Even

Overall:
Another extremely tough choice. If Jameis was fully healthy, I think the connection with Godwin against the Lions would be enough for me to make myself a clear favorite. But his injury (again: to his throwing hand), and Carson's improved situation makes this one essentially a toss up. Last week I didn't think Karma would come back to bite me, but this week, I have the Hollister situation and a number of tough lineup choices that increases the odds that I fuck myself. Given that the rest of our players are done before SNF, I think the Saints make a big play on MNF to give Gutman the win.
Pick: Gutman

MotW Record: 9-7


Gambling Corner - Week of 12/9

NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
Patriots (-10) at Bengals - Win
Jaguars (+7) at Raiders - Win
Vikings (-1.5) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019 Record: 39-32-2 (+1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets

Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 53-42-1 (+4.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets
Nuggets (-10.5) vs. Knicks - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 12-11-1 (-1.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Georgetown (-3) vs. Syracuse - Win
Seton Hall (-2.5) at Rutgers - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7) at Houston - Win
Ohio State (-8) at Minnesota - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019-20 Record: 12-10 (+0.92 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+2) at Chelsea - Win
Wolves (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Arsenal (+1.5) vs. Manchester City - Loss
Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 31-23-11 (+2.43 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Crystal Palace (+155) vs. Brighton - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Lyon (Pick) vs. RB Leipzig - Push
Club Brugge (+0.5) vs. Real Madrid - Loss
Last Week: 1-3-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Shahktar (+155) vs. Atalanta - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)