Stevens Bowl Recap

Big congrats to Gutman, who has already asked about changing his team name so we don't have yet another penis reference on a piece of chef's attire. But the rules are the rules, and the name you rock during the season is what goes on the coat. Gut's close win caps an incredible playoffs where every matchup ended up within 15 points and Alan and Barnard were the only teams that failed to break 100.

Nick's presumed retirement will likely need to yet another AGD split, which puts us in a bit of a pickle for next year's division captains. We can either have AGD choose among themselves to determine who was more responsible for their season, or we can reward them for not only their success, but their willingness to split up for the good of the league, and let them both be division captains. This is a conversation for Winter Meetings, but something I wanted to bring up regardless.

Before moving into the offseason, I want to take one last look at 2019, and review the 5 reasons that Gutman is the champ:

5. Trading Vance McDonald for Jacob Hollister
Hollister wasn't a stud by any means, but he did outscore Vance by 6.5 in the Stevens Bowl week, which would have flipped the result from a win to a loss by 0.3. Yes, Gut may have added someone like Goedert, but Vance had a seemingly nice matchup and Gut may not have wanted multiple Eagles going in an important game, so there is no guarantee he would have handled this differently.

4. Drafting Dak Prescott for $4
Any Champion will have their share of good draft picks, but Gut went heavy on studs, limiting the chances for value. Dak was one of the lone exceptions, drafted as a tie for the 13th most expensive QB and finishing as QB4. He was cheaper than guys like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck, and despite a lackluster Stevens Bowl, he carried Gut early in the year as the rest of his roster had yet to coalesce.

3. Esco terribly mismanaging his lineup in the semi-finals
Any Champion also needs their share of luck, and Gutman benefited from Esco's brutal semi-final lineup decisions. It's easy to nitpick roster decisions in a close matchup (I've been doing it in this space for over a decade), but Esco had 7 decisions he could have made differently that would have led to a Chef's hat for himself given his performance this past week.

2. Holding on to Miles Sanders all season
Gutman's pick of Sanders for $12 was my favorite pick he made during the draft, but god damn if it took a while to pay off. Sanders got inconsistent touches throughout the regular season, and only had three TDs all season heading into Week 15. He then exploded for 56.3 points over the next two weeks, carrying Gut's team across the finish line. I don't think anyone would have straight up dropped Sanders, but starting him over more established names like Amari Cooper, or another seemingly high upside rookie like Hollywood Brown was huge down the stretch.

1. Adding Davante Parker and riding him in the playoffs
None of the moves above come anywhere close to both the waiver add of Parker after Week 6, as well as starting him over Cooper the last two weeks. Starting with the waiver add, Gutman bid $9, which gave him Parker over Nick, who bid $4 (Billy also bid $0). This adds another insult to injury for Nick, who had Parker earlier in the season but dropped him for the immortal Darren Fells, thereby costing himself the Stevens Bowl. Back to Gut, he went against all the rankings and feedback in Week 15 to start Parker, then rode the hot hand instead of emotionally hedging with Cooper in Week 16. Last week I called it the single best lineup decision in FALAFEL history. This week, I call it the stuff of champions.

Final MotW Record: 10-9

I'll keep posting gambling stuff during the offseason, but FALAFEL content will likely go on hold until Winter Meetings and Draft Location madness in the spring.

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/23

NFL Bets
Lions (+13) vs. Packers - Win
Chiefs (-9) vs. Chargers - Win
Eagles (-4.5) at Giants - Win
Broncos (-3) vs. Raiders - Loss
Seahawks (+3.5) vs. 49ers - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019 Record: 43-36-3 (+1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Miami (-6) vs. Louisiana Tech - Loss
Michigan State (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Win
Washington State (+3) vs. Air Force - Loss
Notre Dame (-3) vs. Iowa State - Win
Ohio State (+2) vs. Clemson - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 56-45-1 (+2.59 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets
Nuggets (-9) vs. Grizzlies - Push
Warriors (+11) vs. Mavericks - Loss
Raptors (-4) vs. Thunder - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 13-13-2 (-2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Tennessee (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin - Loss
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky - Loss
Ohio State (-6.5) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 12-14 (-3.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. West Ham - Win
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Arsenal - Win
Newcastle (+1.5) at Manchester United - Loss
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Newcastle (+0.5) vs. Everton - Loss
Crystal Palace (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Aston Villa (+0.5) at Watford - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss
Last Week: 2-4
2019-20 Record: 36-32-11 (-2.91 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Aston Villa (+110) vs. Norwich - Win
Chelsea (-275) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 18-10 (+3.28 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)