Friday, November 18, 2011

Week 11 Rankings

Sorry for the delay folks, but hopefully it will be worth it.

There are two reasons the rankings are late this week. One of them should be exciting for everyone. The other is only exciting to me.

The main reason is that I spent most of my free time this week revamping the CPP to make them more accurate reflections of the skill level being displayed in the league. I'll discuss this in more depth in the rankings section, but that is my legit excuse.

The bullshit excuse is that I started my new job, and have less free time than I'm used to. It's exciting for me because I can wear shorts and flip-flops to work, the fridges are always stocked with beer, the desk next to me is a functioning bar, today someone said "I'm running to Toys R Us, anyone want anything?," and they have Nerf wars. The biggest (only?) downside is the desk structure, which makes it difficult to spend the requisite time on these rankings. I'm assuming I'll be able to get them done outside of work, but my motivation level drops considerably when I leave work, and that's saying something. So we'll see how this goes.

Bitching About Kicking

We'll be taking a break from everyone's favorite section this week, as I spent enough time fucking around in Excel on the new CPP that I couldn't stand to open up my Kickers file. Next week will cover Weeks 10 and 11.

Week 11 Rankings

The CPP was flawed. Everyone knew it, including myself and Gutman. It relied too heavily on subjective factors, my own bias, and mainly Yahoo! projections. Well those are all gone now. The new CPP focuses only on things the owner can control, and provides a more sabermetric look at the Rankings.

The biggest change is that Gutman is out. Much like Zuckerberg kicked that Spanish dude out of Facebook once the company got too big, I'm giving Gutguy the boot. Hopefully an Asian chick will light a fire on your hotel room bed or something. In the movie, Zuckerberg chose Timberlake over his best friend, which cost him a friendship, but led him to billions. Well Billy is my Timberlake. His mid-season rankings took a different look at the league, and I have incorporated some of those things into the new ranking measure.

Here are the main facets of the new CPP:

Adjusted Points Per Game: This takes your total points scored, eliminates your highest and lowest scoring week, and then divides by games played minus 2. This rewards consistency, and takes outlier perfomances, both positive and negative, out of the picture.

Difference Between Actual and Optimal Lineup Per Game: Self-explanatory. Rewards teams who play their optimal lineup or come close.

Total Games Missed by Injured Starters: An owner has no control over his team's injuries. Granted, some players are more injury-prone than others, but for the most part injuries are random. This stat is not perfect, and does not include injured players who got dropped. So Kimmel drafting Peyton only affected his CPP for the weeks he had Manning on his roster. It also only includes clear starters, so Donnie not having Joseph Addai for a few weeks does not matter, as Addai is not a clear starting RB.

Transactions: Rewards owners who take an active approach to their team. Trades are worth three times as much as player adds, because they make the league more fun, even if they may hurt an owner's team.

Weekly Rank: First place for a week gets 14 points, last place gets 1 point. Rank is summed up over the season so far.

Actual Wins: Matchups are determined at random, so weeks when you finish in the top 7, you get an actual win. This is heavily weighted, as we are a head-to-head league, so weekly performance matters.

For this weeks ranking, I'll give reasons why teams fall where they do. If you don't like it, come up with your own ranking system.

1. Esco - CPP: 267.76 - Last Week: 2nd
Why?: Why not? Great roster management, high-scoring team, 7 actual wins. The only thing working "against" you is that you've only had 1 starter miss a game.

2. Joseph - CPP: 257.29 - Last Week: 9th
Why?: Your insanely bad luck in weekly play does not matter to the new CPP. You have the highest Adjust Points Per Game, good roster management, and oh yeah Aaron Rodgers. You have only had 1 starter miss a game as well, but knowing you the injury bug will bite soon.

3. Billy - CPP: 255.90 - Last Week: 1st
Why?: You are tied for the league lead with 8 actual wins. You've also had 4 starters miss a game, which means you've had worse lineup luck than any of the other top 4 teams. This is a dangerous team.

4. Barnard - CPP: 254.31 - Last Week: 4th
Why? Also tied with 8 wins, you have the worst roster management of the top 4 teams. You are also one of only 4 teams who hasn't made a trade, despite your obvious strength at RB and weakness at WR and QB. That might come back to bite you.

5. Kumpf - CPP: 239.11 - Last Week: 8th
Why? Because I made this ranking system. My roster management has been shitty, but a whopping 8 starter injuries (not even including losing Schaub) puts me as the third most injured team in the league. Hopefully the trade with Esco rights my ship, because otherwise I'm missing the playoffs.

6. Zacherman - CPP: 232.96 - Last Week: 6th
Why? You lead the league with an astounding 15 starter injuries, but some of that is self-inflicted. You traded for Andre knowing full well that he would be out at least a month. That was a smart move at the time, provided your team could afford to drop a few and still make the playoffs. At this point I'm not so sure.

7. AGD - CPP: 226.54 - Last Week: 5th
Why? This is just a solid team. Nothing really stands out. Good roster management, more injuries than average, a couple trades. This team's fate will be decided by a few lucky bounces for or against them.

8. Kimmel - CPP: 201.20 - Last Week: 11th
Why? Injuries mainly. The new CPP officially gives you 10 injured starters, but theoretically that number should increase by two every week due to Britt and Peyton. The only reason I don't include them is because they aren't on your roster, so they're not hurting your ability to be competitive by clogging a roster spot.

9. Autodraft - CPP: 196.39 - Last Week: 3rd
Why? 8th in Adjusted PPG, second worst roster management, no injured starters, only 6 pickups, and 5 actual wins. The new CPP has no respect for this team. And neither do I.

10. Weissbard - CPP: 191.67 - Last Week: 7th
Why? The new CPP rewards consistency, and this team has been the antithesis of that. The difference between your highest and lowest scoring weeks is 94. That is absurd.

11. Bennett - CPP: 181.40 - Last Week: 14th
Why? I don't know. For some reason the new CPP has an ounce of respect for you, which I do not. I get the pleasure of trying to hand you a 10th straight loss this week, and even with my injury-riddled team I look forward to seeing double digits in the streak column for you.

12. Ajay - CPP: 178.89 - Last Week: 12th
Why? Because you don't score many points. Injuries have hurt, but you have been the luckiest team other than Donnie so far. You really have no business being .500, but there you sit, on the verge of playoff contention.

13. Alan - CPP: 174.4 - Last Week: 10th
Why? Because you can't manage your roster. I discussed it earlier in the year, but a team as shitty as yours should only be leaving about 5 points on the bench a week. Instead you sit at 16.6, leading the league for the second time in three years. The first time you won it all, but history will not repeat itself this year.

14. Gutman - CPP: 148.13 - Last Week: 13th
Why? Because your team is terrible. I know that kicking you out of the CPP Committee now is harsh, especially given the events of the last few weeks. But I have some news that will cheer you up. Hollywood just announced that they are combining two old Schwarzenegger movies for a remake: Kindergarten Predator, starring Jerry Sandusky.

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