Week 1 Preview

With this year's draft taking place three full weeks before Week 1, lots has changed since we were north of the border. Barnard's team re-defined rock bottom, the running game in Houston and Kansas City are in complete flux, and we have the first blockbuster trade of the season!

Trade Grade 2

Marco receives Derrick Henry, Devin Singletary, and Julian Edelman

AGD receives DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk

Marco went from a hopeless backfield without any clear starters, to one of the more intriguing RB situations in the league. No clear studs but a lot of potential hits if things break right. The price was extremely high though, as he got rid of one of the safest assets in the league in Hopkins. I would probably have waited a week or two to see how things shake out before getting rid of a stud like Nuk, but a trade was likely imminent either way. On the AGD side, they went all in on their starting lineup at the expense of any and all depth. Their full-strength lineup rivals Billy's as the best in the league, but the odds of them all panning out are not high, and makes the Baker/Watson duo even more confusing. I still like the team who got the clear best player more, especially with the nonzero chance that Kirk outscores Edelman.

Marco Grade: C+

AGD Grade: B

Not a lot of insight I can provide on the league as a whole, but I will be switching up the format this year. More to come next week. But one thing isn't changing, and that's the return of #KumpfKurse!

Matchup of the Week - Nick vs. Ajay

Nick's first game back is a divisional matchup with both teams projected in the high 90s, what more can you ask for in Week 1? This matchup is an immediate referendum on RB vs. WR as a team-building process. Nick's backfield duo is second to Billy's at worst when healthy, and they figure to hit the ground running against each other's solid but not spectacular defenses. Ajay's WRs have high ceilings, but are also in unfamiliar offenses that could easily spread the ball out. I don't like the flex situation for either team, and having the QBs get last licks is fun, but I think the RBs (plus the Ravens D feasting on the Fins) welcome Nick back with a W.

Pick: Nick

2018 Matchup of the Week Record: 18-9

I'll end this with my NFL Win Total Bets, which always get ridicule but have averaged almost 65% the last four years:
Atlanta under 9
Buffalo over 6.5
Chicago under 9
Cincinnati over 6
Detroit over 6.5
Green Bay under 9.5
Indianapolis over 6.5
New York Giants over 6
Philadelphia over 9.5
San Francisco under 8
Washington under 6.5

I also bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +1400 and will also be betting the Pats (+700) to win the Super Bowl from now until Brady retires.

Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Titans (+6) at Browns - Win
Eagles (-10) vs. Redskins - Loss
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Colts - Loss
Cowboys (-7) vs. Giants - Win
Raiders (+1) vs. Broncos - Win
2019 Record: 3-2 (+0.45 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Boise State (-12.5) vs. Marshall - Loss
Vanderbilt (+7) at Purdue - Loss
West Virginia (+14) at Missouri - Loss
Texas A&M (+17) at Clemson - Win
Central Florida (-10) at Florida Atlantic - Win
Mississippi (-6) vs. Arkansas - Win
Auburn (-17) vs. Tulane - Win
Washington (-14) vs. California - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019 Record: 5-6 (-1.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

After August, my MLB Win Total Bets are on pace to go 8-3, though none have been decided already.

EPL Spread Bets

Last Week: 0-2-2
2019-20 Record: 7-7-4 (-1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 4-3 (-0.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 2-1-2
2019 Record: 11-12-5 (-3.01 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+0.60 units)