Trade Grade 1
AGD receives Andy Dalton
Billy receives Keke Coutee
We have a record for earliest trade in FALAFEL history. On paper, this is a slam dunk for Billy (typing "Billy" and "AGD" gives me some strong 2015 vibes). However there is an off-the-field impact here that needs to be considered. Just like the Steelers didn't get "only" two late picks for Antonio Brown, AGD was able to unload some baggage with this trade. Not only did AGD get to watch Billy drink a small tube of candy gel, but Billy also agreed to forgive Reap's Lamar Miller for Old Bay snorting debt from last year. This prevents Reap (and really all of us) from hearing about Lamar Miller for the next 20 years, which has value in my book. That said, AGD already dropped Dalton, and Billy has himself Fuller insurance and a flex option, albeit one who is already hurt.
Billy Grade: A+
AGD Grade: B-
Back to the Draft itself. I can't remember a draft filled with more uncertainty on a player to player basis. Off the top of my head, the following players have a potential value swing that could put a team in the Stevens Bowl or the Shot Spot: Zeke, Melvin Gordon, Andrew Luck, Todd Gurley, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, AJ Green, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Cam Newton, Cooper Kupp, and Hunter Henry. Obviously some of those are more important than others, and some are riskier than others, but that will only benefit (or punish) the owners that took the leap. I'm going to hand out grades based on the best information we had at the time (aka before the fantastic Luck news). For example, everyone pretty much thinks Zeke will miss a couple of games max, whereas general consensus puts Melvin Gordon out for at least 6 games, and no one has any idea what to expect from Josh Gordon.
As always, I will use quotes to hand out Draft Grades. However, despite the majority of movies being filmed in Canada, there are not all that many quotable movies based north of the border. I briefly debated using Drake lyrics, but settled on using a combination of quotes from Super Troopers 2 (based in Canada, but not that well-known) and Super Troopers 1 (based near Canada, extremely well-known). Meow, without further ado, the 2019 Draft Grades:
AGD
Thorny: Okay, here's the plan: I'll go out there and distract the bear, while you get the meat and get it the hell out of the station.
Favra: Team Ram-Rod!
They're back baby! And the banner is no longer on the blog. They say if you love someone, set them free, and if it's meant to be then they'll come back. Well after two years apart, AGD put up a combined record 10 games under .500, so it seems like they need each other. I'm not a huge fan of the "Fat RB" approach that Barnard pioneered last year, but you guys paid less for Fournette and Henry combined than Barnard did for Lenny alone last year. Outside of a solid (if thicc) RB trio, spending $21 for two QBs who can't both start, while having questionable WR depth is probably your biggest mis-step.
Best Pick: Derrick Henry for $24Worst Pick: Deshaun Watson for $15
Grade: C
Levine
Rabbit: Oh, look, a bar of soap.
Farva: Oohoohoh shit. I got you good, you fucker!
Mac: Awesome prank, Farva.
I still think Levine didn't come to Draft Weekend this year avoid another one of Weissbard's awesome beer-dumping pranks. In terms of his actual draft, one of the biggest shocks of the weekend was Levine mismanaging his budget enough to leave money on the table. It also forced him to over-spend on the bottom of his roster, which inflated the prices for mediocre-at-best talent (see Worst Pick below). Outside of his financial issues, it's a typically solid Levine roster from top to bottom, with a nice mix of safe and high-ceiling players. He should be in the mix for a playoff spot all year.
Best Pick: Aaron Jones for $25
Worst Pick: Peyton Barber for $9 (but mainly for not spending all his money aka Pulling A Barnard)
Grade: B-
Alan
Police Chief Grady: I will have the enchilada platter with two tacos and no guacamoles. Smy?
Officer Smy: Yeah, chief. I'll have a CHINCHILLA!
Rabbit: I don't get it. Tacos?
Thorny: They think I'm Mexican.
Rabbit: You're not Mexican?
Some jokes never get old. Alan's draft took a turn when he spent over 25% of his budget on Kelce while he got disconnected, but I don't really hate that pick. Kelce should be the equivalent of a WR2 at an extremely top-heavy position, and that has a lot of value. What I did hate was that he spent 75% of his budget on three non-RBs, leaving him with literal backup RBs as his weekly starters. Things might get pretty painful during weeks where his receivers don't put up 20+ each.
Best Pick: Latavius Murray for $12
Worst Pick: Adam Thielen for $42
Grade: C-
Kumpf
Mac: Oh, c'mon, we're like the sons you never had.
Captain O'Hagan: If you were my son, Mac, I would've smothered you by now.
Mac: Smothered me in gravy you big dirty man.
I gave myself this quote because the gravy on that late-night poutine made me a big dirty man for the rest of the weekend. My team should theoretically have a very high floor. Cook, Mack and Damien are all no-doubt starters on above average offenses (at least before the Luck news), and my LA QB duo should give me a QB1 each week. Where I missed the mark is in the passing game. I got overzealous on Jared Cook, when Henry/Vance went for less, and repeatedly backed out of bidding wars for legit starting WRs. Godwin should be fine, but the rest of my group has more risk than I'd like. I smell a RB for WR trade in my future.
Best Pick: Damien Williams for $34
Worst Pick: Jared Cook for $12
Grade: B
Lowe
Farva: You know they have Eskimo hookers up here? When they have sex, they really get "Inuit".
It's shocking how many Farva lines could have been attributed to Lowe.
Esco
Captain O'Hagan: We should have taken him out the back and shot him a long time ago.
While I gave this quote to Esco, it's really referring to Gutman as our draft planner. While there was really nowhere to go but up from our Baltimore house (and having to go to Baltimore for Gutman in general), this year went off pretty much without a hitch, so kudos Esco. Your roster is pretty similar to mine in terms of makeup, but I like your RBs a lot less and your WRs a lot more. This league tends to be won by the RB position, so unless you get an unexpected breakout, the ceiling here is relatively low. And I'm not giving you Vance as your best pick simply out of spite because I spent $10 more on Cook when I had them as a toss up.
Best Pick: Phillip Lindsay for $18
Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks for $30
Grade: C+
Bennett
Thorny: Do you know how fast you were going back there?
College Boy 1: Umm... 65?
Thorny: 63.
College Boy 1: But... isn't the speed limit 65?
Thorny: Yes, it is.
Bennett seems like the kind of guy who drives under the speed limit and still gets pulled over (which will serve him well as an expecting father). I shockingly like Bennett's team. He went risk-heavy with Reek/AB/Green at WR, but the potential payoff is huge. He also got nice values with Conner and especially White, a legit starting RB last year who somehow went for $12. The biggest area of risk is RB depth, and while he has Conner's handcuff, if the Pats change their offense away from short passes, he's SOL.
Best Pick: James White for $12
Worst Pick: Antonio Brown for $45
Grade: B
Nick
Fred Savage: Any of you motherfuckers want some pussy?
The most surprising cameo in Super Troopers 2 goes to the most surprising moment of Draft Weekend 2019: Nick returning to the league. And he certainly came in hot, nabbing two top RBs within the first 10 players drafted. One of the best picks of the draft was probably Henderson at $6 because Nick, unlike others in this league, realized that if you're going to take a risky RB, you damn sure better get his backup. I can see WR being an issue if Kupp struggles at all with ACL recovery, but he should be in a position to trade RB depth for a startable WR if that happens. Welcome back.
Best Pick: Darrell Henderson for $6
Worst Pick: Golden Tate for $5
Grade: B+
Gutman
Police Chief Grady: I'm sorry about that delousing. Just standard procedure.
Farva: It's powdered sugar.
Police Chief Grady: The lice hate the sugar.
Farva: It's delicious.
This scene just makes me think of Gutman for some reason. His draft had to be a relatively traumatic experience while traveling, but all things considered I don't think he did terrible. Gut went hard on the starting lineup, and heading into Week 1 with Dak/Chubb/Carson/Julio/Amari/Burton/Sanders gives him a top five team. However! We all know that things never go according to plan, and if there are any injuries or performance issues, this team has the worst depth in the league. I can see Gutman starting 6-0 and missing the playoffs, or lucking into a Chef's Coat. Pretty wide range here.
Best Pick: Miles Sanders for $12
Worst Pick: Dak Prescott for $4
Grade: C
Billy
Foster: Oh yeah, I got, I got a triangulator!
Ursula: Why would you need a triangulator?
Foster: Why does everyone keep saying that? To triangulate baby!
Billy was basically on speed for most of Draft Day, and this scene fits him well. Drafting Derek Carr, and then yelling "Hard Knocks baby!" was a low-key highlight of the draft. Given his state of mind, ending up with Kamara, Zeke, Rob Woods, and Alshon is an insane core. There is obvious Zeke risk, but things seem to be trending towards a deal. Billy already hates the Brady pick, but even if Father Time gets a W this year, his team has the highest ceiling in the league. After Billy's draft and Fireball Dan's performance last year, maybe I should start getting shitfaced before the draft again.
Best Pick: Austin Hooper for $1
Worst Pick: Tom Brady for $3
Grade: A-
Zacherman
Thorny: Littering and... littering and... littering and smokin' the reefer.
Probably the most obvious quote choice, just like Z going big for Mahomes after having him last year was on the of the more obvious picks. The RB depth here is the best in the league, as Z has as many as 4 starting RBs each week. He falls short on the WR side, with a lot of low-ceiling depth but no potential studs outside of JuJu (spare me your Jets rant Z). My biggest concern for Zacherman is actually his division. He drafted based on his Rivalry Week rankings (as did an absent Levine by default), and that will likely be the biggest playoff barrier for him.
Best Pick: Tevin Coleman for $13
Worst Pick: Greg Olsen for $4
Grade: B+
Marco
Farva: Can't move. My mouth's dry.
Mac: What do you think, like a heavy barbiturate? Maybe a muscle relaxant? You really can't move?
Farva: I'm numb. I'm totally numb. I need medical attention.
We flirted with our first hospital visit on Draft Weekend (and probably should have pulled the trigger in hindsight given the free healthcare), but everything seems to have ended up okay. The same can't be said for Marco's roster (though this Grade is based on how things stood before Lamar's injury). There is a clear issue here at RB, where the dropoff from Lamar to everyone is is huge, and that's not a good thing. His WR situation is probably the best in the league, but a balanced lineup will be an issue before he inevitably makes a trade. I still see this as a playoff contender but I have a feeling the roster in Week 13 will look a lot different than today.
Best Pick: Kalen Ballage for $6Worst Pick: Sammy Watkins for $10
Grade: B-
Marshall
Thorny: Where you boys headed?
College Boy 1: Canada... we were goin' to Canada for some French fries and gravy, sir.
Thorny: Canada, huh? Almost made it.
Sorry dude.
Weissbard
Mountie Podien: That's Danny DeVito!
Mountie Archambault: Danny DeVito is the actor from Taxi, but that guy I like, he come out on Always Sunny in Philadelphia's.
Mountie Bellefuille: Bud, they're the same guy. How many 145-centimeter actors do you think there are?
The former champ and noted Sunny fan gets this one, and I also get to make short joke using the metric system, so it's a win-win. Weiss went back to the well on Saquon which should give him a nice baseline, and he went high upside with two rookies as well. Love that strategy. His WR situation leaves a lot to be desired, but there is a ton of upside there too. I'm definitely not ruling out a repeat.
Best Pick: Josh Jacobs for $23
Worst Pick: Russell Wilson for $5
Grade: A-
Barnard
Thorny: Who wants a moustache ride?
German Woman: Ooh, I vant von!
German Man: I do! I do!
If it's not clear, Barnard is the German Man in this situation. Or German Woman I guess. The point is he can't grow a mustache so he would be the one who takes the ride. This draft was already a disaster before Luck went down, and the retirement news was just a cherry on top. Barnard somehow drafted a team with a shit ton of risk, minimal upside, and no depth. That's honestly impressive. At this point I'm hoping Melvin plays more than 10 games just so Barnard doesn't lose interest in setting his lineup, because this could get ugly.
Best Pick: Eric Ebron for $6
Worst Pick: The rest of them?
Grade: F
Ajay
Thorny: Where are your shoes?
Foster: What are you, the shoe police?
The most Ajay response in the movie goes to the guy who really needs to start wearing shoes. Ajay's roster was the toughest to grade, because none of the picks were amazing, and none were terrible. I think my biggest issue is just with overall roster construction. Dropping $47 on Evans immediately after spending $56 on OBJ is one thing, but following those moves up with $11 more on WR at the expense of RB was questionable. Outside of DJ, his RB situation is perilous, and relying entirely on Ben at QB could leave him fighting Barnard for Eli and Big Dick Nick. There is a path to the playoffs for sure, but it doesn't seem like the most likely option. Also, you should really get your feet checked out.
Best Pick: Dion Lewis for $4
Worst Pick: Dante Pettis for $7
Grade: C-
Final Report Card:
Billy: A-
Weissbard: A-
Nick: B+
Zacherman: B+
Bennett: B
Kumpf: B
Levine: B-
Marco: B-
Esco: C+
AGD: C
Gutman: C
Ajay: C-
Alan: C-
Barnard: F
Gambling Corner - Week of 8/26
NCAAF Bets
Nevada (+11) vs. Purdue - Win
Mississippi (+4.5) at Memphis - Loss
Pittsburgh (+3) vs. Virginia - Loss
2019 Record: 1-2 (-1.13 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
MLB Bets
Last Week: 3-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
After August, my MLB Win Total Bets are on pace to go 8-3, though none have been decided already.
EPL Spread Bets
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Watford - Push
Brighton (+3) at Manchester City - Loss
Burnley (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Loss
Arsenal (Pick) vs. Tottenham - Push
Last Week: 3-1-1
2019-20 Record: 7-7-4 (-1.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
West Ham (-110) vs. Norwich - Win
Crystal Palace (+130) vs. Aston Villa - Win
Everton (+120) vs. Wolves - Win
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 4-3 (-0.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
MLS Spread Bets
Last Week: 2-1-2
2019 Record: 11-12-5 (-3.01 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+0.60 units)
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