Week 14 Playoff Picture

One week from the playoffs! Rivalry Week II! A playoff picture shakeup! Lots of big stuff this week, so let's jump right in.

If the season ended today, the playoffs would be:

1. Ajay - BYE - Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Champ
2. Marco - BYE - Bennett Division Champ
3. Billy - Wild Card 1
4. Zacherman - Levine Division Champ
5. Bennett - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot

Things are finally a little different here. Ajay has clinched everything possible, Zacherman falls out of the bye for the first time since he draft Mahomes and Kelce, and I enter the playoff picture for the first time since I drafted Akers and Pierce.

Everyone has something to play for this week, even if it's just the second Rivalry Week prize or weekly high score. But for some teams this week just means more, so I'll run through those teams.

Ajay - Clinched Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Championship, and bye. Boring.

Marco - Clinched playoffs. Should clinch Bennett Division Championship and a bye with a win vs. Gutman. If Marco wins AND Billy (46) OR Zacherman (50) wins and makes up points, Marco could fall out of the bye. If Marco loses, he could fall all the way to 5th if Billy and Z make up points AND Bennett wins.

Billy - Clinched playoffs. Similar position to Marco in that he could end up anywhere from 2nd (bye) to 5th, with an outside shot at falling to NiJo spot. Billy can clinch the division and a bye with a win against Bennett, Marco losing to Gutman AND Z either losing to AGD OR Z beating AGD and not outscoring Billy by 4. Billy would fall to the NiJo spot with a loss to Bennett, Zacherman beating AGD OR losing and outscoring Billy by 4, AND Kumpf beating Barnard AND outscoring Billy by 51. 

Zacherman - Clinched playoffs. Essentially the same situation as Billy but with 4 less points scored so far. Can finish anywhere from the second bye to NiJo spot.

Bennett - Clinched playoffs. Even with a loss, Bennett has scored 123 more points than the 7th highest scoring team, so the NiJo spot is the absolute worst he can finish. In terms of upside, he still has an outside shot at the bye. Bennett would need to beat Billy, have Marco lose to Gutman while not outscoring Bennett by 24, AND have Z lose to AGD. Not impossible, but not likely.

Now for the fun part. The NiJo spot is still pretty wide open, with Billy, Z and Bennett potentially getting involved in a surprising race depending on how things break.

Kumpf - Can clinch the playoffs as the 5 seed with a win against Barnard AND Billy beating Bennett. That's surprisingly feasible though the JT injury hurts. If I lose to Barnard OR Bennett beats Billy, then it comes down to the NiJo spot, where I have a 1.5 point lead over Esco. That means it's essentially me vs. Esco even though we're not playing each other. I don't remember having this situation before but it's a fun byproduct of the NiJo rule.

Esco - Can only make the playoffs via NiJo rule. Would need to outscore me by 1.5 regardless of the outcome of either of our matchups. He also just lost Lawrence and Kirk, and Kyler is on bye. Saquon is back at least?

And that's it. I will manually set the seeds after MNF next week, and all eliminated teams will have their rosters "frozen" in that I will manually undo any moves that are made starting Week 15 unless that team is still alive.

Wait... is that Nick and Alan's music???

I had mentally written off everyone else, but we still have two other teams very much alive for the NiJo spot.

Nick - After a massive Week 13, Nick re-established himself as a playoff contender and is now only 17 points behind me and Esco. Conner on a bye puts a lot of pressure on Aaron Jones getting healthy, but Nick has had two weeks in the 140s so far this year. Another one would more than likely put him in the playoffs.

Alan - As always, you can never write Alan off. He held serve against me this week which was all he needed to do to make up ground on Esco, and he now sits only 30 points back of us. His team is both healthy and not on byes, with some decent matchups as well. He has not had as many boom weeks as Nick, but his consistency makes him a threat to crash the playoff party and single handedly keep the embroidered chef attire industry in business.

Technically Gutman is alive too, but making up 71 points on me and passing three other teams isn't going to happen.

My official prediction for the playoff field:

1. Ajay

2. Marco

3. Zacherman

4. Bennett

5. Billy

6. Alan