Stevens Bowl XV Preview

I am starting this post on Wednesday morning. I waited a day because I couldn't figure out how to kick things off, but the most dramatic stat correction in FALAFEL history changed all that. The only remotely similar feeling in sports is when a game-winning score is under review for some obscure rule. If we all knew that ESPN fucked up, that would be one thing, but a muffed punt between two below-average teams on Christmas Eve was not being talked about at all. Billy went from the People's Champ to an all-time horror story, Esco went from an over-achieving also ran to a potential Chef's Hat, and Bennett went from a punchline to the favorite for a Chef's Coat. Fantasy is weird, man.

Before we get to the usual preview, it's time for the usual song and dance:

MEJIA! ESCO! BENNETT! It's The Stevens Bowl XV!
(They have added an AI component that I can't really understand, but that's one step closer to Barnard being in one of these)

Now it's on to the usual Dr. Z breakdown:

Stevens Bowl XV: BMO vs. Esco

Quarterback
We're starting with one that looks easy on the surface. Josh Allen could play his way into a wide open MVP conversation if he leads the Bills to a comeback division title. That requires a win this week at home against the Pats. Unless we get another Wind Bowl, Josh has a floor of 20 (he's only been below 4 times this year, twice since Week 6), and he put up 24 in New England a couple months back. 

Esco's QB situation, on the other hand, has been a comedy/tragedy all year. He drafted Tua, with Kyler as an upside backup once Tua inevitably got concussed. My Adult Son shockingly has stayed healthy and productive, but a weirdly significant trade with Marco left Esco with a banged up and maddeningly inconsistent Trevor Lawrence. Tough decisions at QBs are the worst, because it can be a 10+ point mistake, and can lead you to seriously consider starting Tommy DeVito with your season on the line. The upside here is that both Kyler and Lawrence have good matchups this week. Right now it seems like Lawrence legitimately might not play, but even if he does, I like Kyler against Philly's porous pass defense (adding insult to injury for Bennett). Either way, I don't like the matchups enough to go against Josh.
Edge: BMO

Runningbacks
Some health concerns for Mostert and Jacobs make this one a little bit blurry at the moment. That would probably benefit BMO, as if Jacobs can't go, Zamir can be plugged right in. If Mostert isn't 100%, McD might just put him on a pitch count and give touches to Achane or El Jeffe. Assuming the top guys are healthy, this is close. Mostert could easily have 20 yards and 3 TDs, but the matchups are heavily in favor of Bennett.
Edge: BMO

Wide Receivers
The Ravens pass defense is no slouch, but it's very possible that Reek outscores every other WR on these two teams combined (assuming Waddle is out). Nice that Demarcus Robinson might get to make his Stevens Bowl debut though.
Big Edge: BMO

Tight End
Lots of mediocrity here, so this one comes down to touchdowns. Whoever Esco benches will definitely score, but not sure about the starters.
Edge: Even

Flex
If Esco wants a Chef Hat, it will come down to Gus. Miami's run defense has been firmly above average all year, but I assume they will sell out to stop Lamar, leaving some room for the Gus Bus. If he can deliver a 25+ point game like he did against AZ earlier in the year, the overall matchup will be tight. I can't see Belichick letting Gabe Davis go off AGAIN, so this position is an easy call.
Big Edge: Esco

D/ST
Esco didn't even think he was going to make the playoffs, let alone the Stevens Bowl, so he was ill-prepared for the D/ST hoarding that takes place every year around the holidays. Nothing wrong with the Steel Curtain with an average-ish matchup against Seattle, but I would take all three of BMO's defenses over Pitt. Now watch TJ Watt outscore Josh Allen.
Edge: BMO

Overall
On paper, this looks like a blowout. Bennett has a pretty clear edge at almost every position, along with better matchups and a better health situation. But Esco has looked like the team of destiny since Mostert sunk my dreams in Week 14. Will I have to decide how to handle a multiple Chef Coat situation? Or will the average height of Chef Hats increase significantly? And is this all just an elaborate JuJu ruse? We'll find out on NYE.
Pick: Mejia

I plan on doing a couple lookbacks in the coming weeks, but the blog could just as easily be left alone until Draft Location Madness in three months.