Week 11 Power Rankings/Trade Deadline Preview

It's been awhile since I made a full blog post. It's been so long...(HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN?) It's been so long that Marco of all people has written a guest blog. He wasn't even in the league when this blog was Donny's and was run out of a Google Listserve! Sure there have been the odd trade grades here and there, but the people are clamoring for the real thing. And the real thing they will get.

Let's start with some old school, extremely subjective  scientific Power Rankings with a focus on trade possibilities, and follow that up with a playoff picture check-in and the usual mock trades. (Editor's Note: I started writing this on Tuesday, before Marco and Ajay preyed on Barnard/Gutman/Weissbard, so the analysis as it relates to those moves will be more lacking than usual.)

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Marco
Roster Strength: Flex. Some teams have difficult and often disgusting decisions for their flex due to lack of depth, others have obvious choices due to no options at RB3 or WR3. Marco has a difficult choice because he runs four deep at both RB and WR. That depth is almost unheard of in this league. Another strength may be that he has Barnard on speed dial if he needs to make any last minute trades.

Roster Weakness: Quarterback. It's honestly shocking that the flurry of trades this week didn't yield an upgrade at QB for Marco. Yes, Sam Howell is leading the league in passing yards. And he's currently QB5 in fantasy, ahead of guys like Mahomes, Tua, and Trevor Lawrence. But he hasn't had his bye yet, and after feasting on the G-Men this week, he has a murderer's row of defenses to end the season. Lawrence (RIP Watson) provides some insurance, but pairing a WR with one of them to get a more reliable QB would truly make Marco the team to beat.

2. Zacherman
Roster Strength: Tight End. Having a strength at a onesie position (QB, TE, DST) is very useful for  encouraging trades, as you are either unable to start multiple players (QB, DST), or it is rarely ideal (TE). For Zacherman, Kincaid has been a weekly flex option with Knox hurt, and with that injury timetable unclear, standing pat is certainly an option. But as you will see below, using Kincaid (or Kelce! or Freiermuth!) to fortify an otherwise lacking bench may be a better use of your situation
Roster Weakness: Depth. Z has had absurd luck in the health department this year. The only injuries he's dealt with were voluntarily added during the draft (Breece) or via trade (JJ/Air Freier). That is unlikely to last for any team, let alone one relying on Keenan Allen to an absurd degree. Zacherman's trades and waiver additions have been solid at worst, but getting another viable WR, or upgrading at RB3 would help cushion the lack of playoff luck that has plagued Z in the past.

3. Ajay
Roster Strength: Handcuffs. Earlier this season, Ajay was in rough shape at RB. That is no longer the case due to trades (Conner, Kyren) and luck (Rachaad White suddenly remembering how to play football). To mitigate his previous issues, Ajay acquired and held onto multiple handcuffs. He has his own cuffs for Etienne and Conner, but he still has Zamir White, who is more valuable to the Jacobs owner than anyone else. Yes, I'm reaching here, but Ajay's team is just solid without a ton of excess.
Roster Weakness: FAAB. Part of the reason he has no excess is that Ajay spent literally all of his FAAB before the end of October. The $66 for Henderson led to him acquiring Higgins, but Latavius Murray and Craig Reynolds for $99 has aged incredibly poorly. As mentioned, his team is solid now, so this is not a huge concern, but I would be scared going into the playoffs with no backup to Herbert and trying to stream defenses without being able to bid even $1. 

4. Bennett
Roster Strength: Starters. When healthy, this team can compete with anyone. Solid RBs, a league winner in Tyreek, and no real holes outside of maybe defense depending on the matchup. I would have thought Bennett had the most consistently high floor in the league, but I would have been wrong, as he as failed to clear 90 points five times so far. Getting Goedert back will make a big difference, and Keaton Mitchell could haunt Esco for years, so I would not want to face this team in the playoffs.
Roster Weakness: Depth. The obvious counterpoint. If any of his preferred starters go down, Bennett is stuck relying on the likes of Jamaal Williams, Rondale Moore, and Tyler Conklin. Not ideal for a Stevens Bowl contender.

5. Billy
Roster Strength: Runningback. Not much to say here, but hitting on all three of his big RBs means Billy is back in title contention for the first time in years. Currently, CMC/Ekeler/JT are averaging a combined 50.6 points per game. I'd bite your arm off for that kind of RB production.
Roster Weakness: Quarterback. Billy always goes big at RB, and usually tries to get by with streaming at the other positions. This year he has a high enough floor at WR, along with a legitimate weekly starter at TE in Kmet. He even has Ekeler's handcuff, which is not always the case. But going into the playoffs with Baker Mayfield and Will Levis at QB is not going to lead to a Chef's Hat. For reference, when Billy won Stevens Bowl III, he had Drew Brees at QB (Arian Foster and Reggie Bush were his big RBs, and he also had the Jets version of LDT, and Jeremy Shockey! Memories!). To be a real contender, Billy may need to flip an RB for a joint upgrade at QB and WR.

This concludes what I would consider the real contenders as currently situated. Teams that are extremely likely to make the playoffs, and can do damage once they're in. If this league has taught me anything though, it's that the Stevens Bowl is a fickle beast. So the next group of teams could obviously still win. Nothing epitomizes that more than...

6. Alan
Roster Strength: Depth. What record would a team of Brock Purdy/Chuba Hubbard/Devin Singletary/George Pickens/Jahan Dotson/Tyler Higbee have? Would Barnard swap teams with that? Because those are all backups for Alan at QB/RB/WR/TE. Very impressive, and very typical of Alan to hang around .500 for most of the year, and turn into Playoff Alan come December. If I was him, I would package Purdy and an RB for an upgrade somewhere, but who am I to give advice to the Apron Wearer?
Roster Weakness: High-End RB Talent. I don't love Joe Mixon as RB1 for a title team. I really don't love a combo of James Cook/Chuba/Singletary as RB2 for a title team. As mentioned, turning Purdy and one of Cook/Chuba/Singletary into someone on par with Mixon (Javonte? Saquon? Mostert?) would bump Alan up a couple of spots.

7. AGD
Roster Strength: Wide Receiver. AGD is one of the more straightforward teams in this exercise. After their questionable trade with Nick, they have too many startable WRs. Depth is one thing, but watching one of Puka or Amari (not to mention Elijah Moore, D.J. Chark, and Rob Woods, who would be flex options for some teams) toil on your bench while you trot out Kareem Hunt or A.J. Dillon at RB2 has to be painful.
Roster Weakness: Runningback. See above. Deebo and Kareem for a better RB?

8. Levine
Roster Strength: Depth. Shocker, I know. It may actually be a shock to see a 2-8 team this high on the list, but I mean look at that roster! No one likes to root for Russ, and the reliance on Vikings RBs is unfortunate, but his bench is even better than Alan's. The NiJo spot is realistically Levine's only path to the playoffs, but he's only 75 points back right now (albeit with four teams to pass). A notoriously unwilling trader, Levine needs to shit or get off the pot (sorry Alan) in the next few days.
Roster Weakness: Enjoyment. The major downside of drafting for value at all costs is that you often end up hating your team. I've been there the last few years, and sometimes those seasons can lead to a Chef's Coat, but other times they can lead to starting 5 Cowboys multiple times. No one really knows where Levine's head is at, but if he's not going to make a big play for the NiJo spot, at least trade for some Dolphins. I'm sure that Tua, Waddle, and Mostert are gettable.

9. Nick
Roster Strength: Tight End. This is one of the most Nick seasons ever. He has lost three games by less than three points, has a roster of players he doesn't like (aside from Stroud), yet is still alive for the playoffs so he has to keep caring. Adam Schefter reports that Nick is fine rolling out Jonnu at TE after the bye, so LaPorta becomes one of the best players on the trade block in the league.
Roster Weakness: Upside. Nick's starters have a high floor, and his bench isn't bad. But outside of a Week 3 explosion that was fueled by a player no longer on the team (Deebo) and unsustainable production (Bills D, McKinnon), he hasn't shown the capability to compete with the big dogs. 

10. Esco
Roster Strength: Team Composition. This might be another way of saying Depth, but I'm impressed in what Esco has put together. Two startable QBs in the right matchup? Check. Handcuffs to both his starting RBs? Check. Upside at WR to make up for a lack of high end talent? Check.  He currently has a 33 point lead in the NiJo race, that I am going to bet that he maintains. A brutal division (great drafting Bennett!) means that may be his only path to the playoffs, but he's the 6-seed I would want to avoid if I was a top team.
Roster Weakness: Tight End. Perceptive readers will notice the one position I did not mention above. Njoku is fine, and it remains to be seen how he performs with DTR the rest of the season, but that would be a position I would try to upgrade.

This concludes the teams that have a solid shot at the playoffs. The teams below have a combined four Stevens Bowls, and also Barnard, but this has not been our year.

11. Gutman
Roster Strength: Flex. I'm not going to say straight up Depth, because that's not entirely true, but when healthy, Gut's Flex options are Rhamondre/Drake/Shaheed/Musgrave, with the hilarious potential of Fat Lenny playing a role. Not stellar, but prettay prettay good.
Roster Weakness: Quarterback. It's the time of year for Hallmark movies, and Gut must have a soft spot for long shots. Geno was America's sweetheart last year, and Dobbs is poised to fill that role this year if Minny goes on a run. Starting either one of them means you are not a serious contender.

12. Kumpf
Roster Strength: Quarterback. I could have easily said "Cowboys" and left it at that, but I don't see people lining up for a shot at Uncle Rico Dowdle. Dak has been a revelation lately, and Goff is an upgrade for a few teams, so if someone will finally trade with me, I would guess that one of those two is involved. 
Roster Weakness: Runningback. See Dowdle, Uncle Rico.

13. Weissbard
Roster Strength: Low-End Depth. I look at Weissbard's roster and I see a middle of the pack team. Some of that has to due with guys like Fields and the newly-acquired Achane coming back from injury, but this does not appear to be a bad team in the way that our bottom dwellers usually are. Then I see that he's scored 48 points less than BARNARD, and I can't rank Weiss higher than this. His bench is full of guys that could be useful to contenders though.
Roster Weakness: Talent? I used the word "useful" above as it relates to Weissbard's bench. It unfortunately also applies to his starters, where the vast majority of his players would not be an upgrade for the top tier teams. That makes it tough to make trades, but I respect the way Weiss has powered through.

14. Barnard
Roster Strength: D/ST. The Browns defense has been incredible and also exciting. Good job, good effort.
Roster Weakness: Roster Management. It takes a real dedication to not having a Chef's Coat to turn Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Pat Freiermuth, Mike Williams, and D.J. Chark into Darrell Henderson Jr., D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd, Dalton Schultz, Jerry Jeudy, Zeke, and Michael Thomas. 

Playoff Picture

If the playoffs started today, we would have:
1 (BYE) . Zacherman - Levine Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2 (BYE). Ajay - Alan Division Champ
3. Billy - Bennett Division Champ
4. Marco - Wild Card 1
5. Bennett - Wild Card 2
6. Esco - NiJo Spot

By record, Esco, Kumpf and Gutman are one game out, and Nick, Alan, AGD, and Barnard are two games out. For the NiJo race, Esco is ahead of Kumpf (33 points), Gutman (49 points), Nick (66 points), Levine (76 points), Alan (88 points), and AGD (96 points). Weissbard is the odd man out here, 3 games back by record and 190 points out of the NiJo spot.

2023 Mock Trades

Given all the analysis above, I'm going to leave these trades here without any commentary.

Mock Trade 1
Esco receives Trevor Lawrence, Gus Edwards, and Calvin Ridley
Marco receives Tua Tagovailoa, Antonio Gibson, and Brandin Cooks

Mock Trade 2
Weissbard receives Quentin Johnston and Dalton Kincaid
Zacherman receives Chris Godwin and Rashee Rice

Mock Trade 3
Ajay receives Emari Demercado and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nick receives Rachaad White and DK Metcalf

Mock Trade 4
AGD receives Josh Jacobs and Jamaal Williams
Bennett receives Derrick Henry and Amari Cooper

Mock Trade 5
Billy receives Jared Goff, Tony Pollard, and Rico Dowdle
Kumpf receives Baker Mayfield, Austin Ekeler, and Joshua Kelley

Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Geno Smith, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Stefon Diggs
Gutman receives Jalen Hurts, James Cook, and George Pickens

Mock Trade 7
Levine receives Joe Burrow, Tyjae Spears, Darrell Henderson Jr., and Michael Thomas
Barnard receives Russell Wilson, Alexander Mattison, Ty Chandler, and Mike Evans

See you in the playoffs for the usual matchup breakdowns.