Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Trade Grades 10-13

I have another post coming later this week, but I want to get these Trade Grades out of the way as they are materially relevant to the theme of the other post. The theme of this post is Marco and Ajay making a serious play for a Chef Coat/Apron at the expense of three teams that won't be making the playoffs.

Trade 10
Barnard receives Tyler Boyd
Marco receives Calvin Ridley

Just a fantastic example of how to destroy value by Barnard. Ridley hasn't lived up to expectations after a huge Week 1, but he's still a nice flex option with some nice matchups down the stretch. He also has some rough matchups coming up, and unlike Barnard, Marco has the depth to not be forced to start Ridley. A clear upgrade and an obvious decision for Marco.

Boyd has admittedly performed better than I previously assumed over the last month, but a lot of that has been due to other injuries to Cincy receivers. Higgins is still banged up, so Barnard gets a pretty direct replacement, but if/when Higgins returns, he basically turned a flex option into nothing. Yes, Barnard likely needs to win out for a chance at the playoffs, but Cincy plays Baltimore and Pittsburgh the next two weeks, which are unlikely to be high-scoring affairs. If Barnard was looking for a direct swap of Ridley for another WR, guys like George Pickens, Rashee Rice, or even Zay Flowers (if he was determined to trade with Marco) would have been better value.

Barnard Grade: D+
Marco Grade: A


Trade 11
Gutman receives Zay Flowers
Marco receives Zach Charbonnet

Before looking at the individual players at all, Marco traded a newly expendable WR4 for the handcuff to his oft-injured RB2 (and potentially the guy overtaking his RB2). That on its own is good business. At the same time, Gutman took an RB4 who he wouldn't start in the next few weeks barring injury, and turned him into a weekly Flex option (and regrettable WR2 this week). That's a win-win trade.

Looking at the individual players, I'd much rather have Charb due to the aforementioned issues with KW3, but these teams both improved with this move.

Gutman Grade: B+
Marco Grade: A-


Trade 12
Marco receives Bijan Robinson and Tank Dell
Weissbard receives De'Von Achane and Garrett Wilson

The upset of the year is Weissbard not getting fleeced for Bijan after offering him to the other 13 teams, plus Bruno and Chris Long. This also probably goes down as our biggest trade of the season in terms of the names involved (Tank Dell!), and I will always be a fan of that. HOWEVER, I don't really like this trade for either team. Weissbard realistically needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, and the NiJo spot is well out of reach given that he's 50 points below the second lowest scoring team. Bijan isn't flashy, but he's theoretically a guaranteed 10 points with 20-point upside as long as Arthur Smith stops being a dick. Marco, on the other hand, has designs on a Chef's Coat. He needs league winners, and I'm not sure anyone has that upside more than Achane. 

These are our two most trade-happy teams, but I think they both did themselves a disservice this time.

Marco Grade: C-
Weissbard Grade: C+

For a quick summary, Marco's flex options went from:
RB: De'Von Achane/Kenneth Walker III/Brian Robinson Jr./Gus Edwards
WR: A.J. Brown/Garrett Wilson/Adam Thielen/Zay Flowers/Tyler Boyd

to

RB: Bijan Robinson/Kenneth Walker III/Brian Robinson Jr/Gus Edwards/Zach Charbonnet
WR: A.J. Brown/Adam Thielen/Tank Dell/Calvin Ridley

I think I prefer the top roster? It's very close though, and may not have been worth the effort, even if trading is fun.

Both Achane and Beej could be league winners I guess, but the Falcons have thus far refused to cook with mustard. Fins have a brutal schedule so it's nice to get away from that, and getting Charb is a plus, but the most obvious upgrade in my mind is going from Boyd to Ridley. I doubt that a WR4 upgrade changes all that much, but it's probably the biggest impact Barnard will have on the Stevens Bowl race.

Trade 13
Ajay receives Tee Higgins and Chargers D/ST
Barnard receives Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyjae Spears, and Browns D/ST

Oh cool, another Barnard trade.

With the return of Conner and the emergence of Rachaad White, Ajay suddenly had too many RBs. He solves that problem here and gives a buffer in case JJ's return takes away from Addison (or Josh Dobbs remembers that he's Josh Dobbs). Higgins is hurt now, and the Bengals' next few weeks are brutal, but Ajay has a three-game lead in the division and is thinking about the playoffs.

For Barnard, I guess it's trying to stop the bleeding? His continued obsession with making short-sighted moves has left him with Zack Moss, Zeke, Michael Thomas, and Taysom on bye. For most teams, that would be a slight inconvenience, if that. For Barnard, it's a four-alarm fire that caused him to trade Ridley for Boyd (partly so he had Higgins insurance), then promptly trade Higgins for a member of the ever-changing Rams RB committee, and a defense? Can't argue with the Browns D actually, that was solid and will likely hurt Ajay given his $0 of auction money. 

I would run through the same roster exercise for Barnard that I did for Marco, but that would be a waste of everyone's time. But I do want to make sure that everyone sees that Barnard essentially paid too much for car insurance, then sold his car but is stuck paying the insurance. Good thing he's not in the insurance industry.

Ajay Grade: B+
Barnard Grade: C+

Actual blog post coming in the next two days, unless you fuckers keep making trades.

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